China to build aircraft carrier

[wp2000]

How old is this information? If that would be true, why are the major sites on such issues, like sinodefence.com or chinese military aviation not giving any further info about the LPD?
This would be a major step for the PLAN, since the current sea-lift capabilities rely solely on the known dated designs mentioned in your post and news sites certainly would pick up such procurements very quickly, so I am just wondering.

By the way, the Zubr-class is not being build by China. In fact they buy these eight units from Russia, similary to the Sovremenny- and Kilo-deals. See for example sinodefence for that issue. I am not aware of any licensing agreement, though that may be desired by the PLAN in the future.

Well if I need to bet, the chance of Varyag as a training ship is over 50%. Chance of this LPD, 90%. If things go well as planned, I guess we should see pictures from china in the next 6-12 months. But I don't know whether it's exactly the same as that model or not.

Sinodefence chooses to be cautious on these Unconfirmed things. Even when pictures show up, that site will take some time to verify them. That's a good approach which make it a serious website.

China Aviation is a strange one. It has been kept as a fan site for personal interest for so more than 10 years. The owner actually knows a lot of stuff but he does not post everything he knows on his website. You can see his main focus is on planes, although he does have sections for destroyers, frigates and subs.

 

[Pursuit Curve]

All the talk about LHA's etc is really academic though. The reality is that there has been a de-emphasis on amphibious landings as a solution to get men on shore. Opposed landings lost their halo after D Day. None of note have occurred since Grenada and force structures have changed accordingly.

Amphib opposed landings require a greater emphasis on theatre dominance prior to initiation - thats why there is more focus on sieze and hold and then land the force majeur.

Look at the logistics to conduct an amphib operation in a contested theatre. All the numbers are not in favour of an amphib assault on Taiwan. It takes more than an ESF to conduct such an event and the PLAN doesn't have anything remotely close to fielding an ESF let alone conduct an opposed assault with all the necessary dominance issues covered off before, during and after a landing.

Hey GF hope all is well down under. I was just wanting to comment on your post. I would say that depending on the opposition, or lack there of, that Amphibious operations are needed where major ports and other facilities are lacking. Amphibious is the only way to get heavy equipment on shore and inland. As far as Taiwan goes it sort of reminds me of the other "What if's" in history, like the Fulda Gap in Western Germany etc etc. The perception of threat serves boths sides to further agendas and budgets. I think that if a Chinese Genereal or Admiral would candidly give the chances of a Amphibious operations chance, they would probably not want to do it.

As for the other posts here on this subject, I am amazed that the mere appearance of a major Amphibious platform means that China has its gaze fixed on Taiwan, I am more inclined to think that the talk of Taiwan is a major act of deception, Chinese aspirations might be more in the order to get this hardware to the Spratly Islands, Sieze the area, establish defences and facilities ( Using said platforms) and there is more to win there than massive casualties washing ashore in Taiwan.

I am of course specualting wildly, but what do you think about it?

 

[tphuang]

How old is this information? If that would be true, why are the major sites on such issues, like sinodefence.com or chinese military aviation not giving any further info about the LPD?
This would be a major step for the PLAN, since the current sea-lift capabilities rely solely on the known dated designs mentioned in your post and news sites certainly would pick up such procurements very quickly, so I am just wondering.

By the way, the Zubr-class is not being build by China. In fact they buy these eight units from Russia, similary to the Sovremenny- and Kilo-deals. See for example sinodefence for that issue. I am not aware of any licensing agreement, though that may be desired by the PLAN in the future.

sinodefense is behind on certain things. The most up to date sites are probably huitong's site and CDF. Kanwa probably provides some of the most useful news (especially Russian related PLA news).

Check here:
http://www.kanwa.com/ekir/
It has this line "CHINESE VERSION ZUBR WILL SHOW OUT SOON"

As for the LPD, I believe the reason why sinodefense doesn't have it listed is because there are so many auxilary ships and landing ships coming out these days, that it's just too hard to keep track of. Frankly, it hasn't even being launched yet. 116 and 054A are other ships under construction, but hasn't appeared on SDF yet.

sorry gf, I don't know what ESF is.

 

[Wild Weasel]

The result would be the same as if the PRC attacked Taiwan.
A massive UN-directed, US-led Coalition interdicting any PLAN units outside their home waters, and possible directed strikes against pertinent targets on the PRC mainland.
The threat to all SEA partners, would require an immediate, and decisive response against a Chinese invasion fleet.
Tactically, the PLAN would be even more over-extended than it would be if was attempting to seize Taiwan. PLAN ships would be hunted by every plane and sub in the region, not to mention the overwhelming force that the United States can bring to bare. But unlike an invasion of Taiwan- PLAF air superiority, land based SAMs, and PLAN SSKs would be much less relevent.
The distance of the Spratleys from the PRC mainland, the speed of these units, their lack of endurance, inability to operate independently, and lack of reliable support- means that they are essentially useless in such an operation.
So, if the PRC intends to seize the Spratleys, she is not only over extended- she'd be at a significant numerical disadvantage as well.

Quantity is NOT a quality all it's own- if the quantity is not signifcantly greater than the numbers of high quality assets that can be assembled to defend the Spratley Islands.

China may purchase as much oil as she can afford. But China will not be allowed to sieze such a strategic oil reserve as the Spratleys, without paying a heavy price for it in blood.

Now, an interesting question for me, is how an offensive move against the Spratleys, would tie in with Taiwan?
Taiwan's proximity, and territory in the Spratleys would certainly require a response by the ROC. So, if the ROC begins to interdict PLAN assets, wouldn't the PRC be forced to strike Taiwanese land targets?
In the end, I believe that China could not hope to seize either Taiwan, or the Spratley Islands, unless they:
A.) Develop a naval capability far more advanced than what they are currently operating...
B.) and/or are willing to incur massive, devastating losses- and possibly even risk wide-scale thermo nuclear warfare.

Are we to assume they would be so reckless?

 

[Pursuit Curve]

The result would be the same as if the PRC attacked Taiwan.
A massive UN-directed, US-led Coalition interdicting any PLAN units outside their home waters, and possible directed strikes against pertinent targets on the PRC mainland.
The threat to all SEA partners, would require an immediate, and decisive response against a Chinese invasion fleet.
Tactically, the PLAN would be even more over-extended than it would be if was attempting to seize Taiwan. PLAN ships would be hunted by every plane and sub in the region, not to mention the overwhelming force that the United States can bring to bare. But unlike an invasion of Taiwan- PLAF air superiority, land based SAMs, and PLAN SSKs would be much less relevent.
The distance of the Spratleys from the PRC mainland, the speed of these units, their lack of endurance, inability to operate independently, and lack of reliable support- means that they are essentially useless in such an operation.
So, if the PRC intends to seize the Spratleys, she is not only over extended- she'd be at a significant numerical disadvantage as well.

Quantity is NOT a quality all it's own- if the quantity is not signifcantly greater than the numbers of high quality assets that can be assembled to defend the Spratley Islands.

China may purchase as much oil as she can afford. But China will not be allowed to sieze such a strategic oil reserve as the Spratleys, without paying a heavy price for it in blood.

Now, an interesting question for me, is how an offensive move against the Spratleys, would tie in with Taiwan?
Taiwan's proximity, and territory in the Spratleys would certainly require a response by the ROC. So, if the ROC begins to interdict PLAN assets, wouldn't the PRC be forced to strike Taiwanese land targets?
In the end, I believe that China could not hope to seize either Taiwan, or the Spratley Islands, unless they:
A.) Develop a naval capability far more advanced than what they are currently operating...
B.) and/or are willing to incur massive, devastating losses- and possibly even risk wide-scale thermo nuclear warfare.

Are we to assume they would be so reckless?

Weasel, I identified the Sprat Islands as it is more in the Chinese interest to assume control over them, because of the natural resources that they contain. Taiwan would be in a sticky situation if, say, the chinese mount a "Naval Exercise" and take control of the Spratley Islands, the Taiwanese cannot be seen as taking pre emptive action against an exercise, they would lose the diplomatic and world sympathy that they would otherwise garner if the Chinese simply attacked and invaded Taiwan.

I just wanted to put the Spratley Island scenario out there to broaden the topic and maybe get some response from the knowledgable contributors here.

 

[gf0012-aust]

I just wanted to put the Spratley Island scenario out there to broaden the topic and maybe get some response from the knowledgable contributors here.

China has already seen that the other claimants are more than willing to exchange gunfire over the Spratlys. (eg the Malays and Filipinos). I don't think Tawian would even remotely consider intervening in the Spratlys as the negative press coming from any such conflict would work in their favour.

Plus, taking the Spratlys requires a huge logistical committment - this is far outside current PLAN capability.

 

[gf0012-aust]

sorry gf, I don't know what ESF is.

ESF is an Expeditionary Strike Force. It's virtually a smaller CSF but with an LHA as the flag or primary vessel. It's main role is expeditionary or amphibious support.

Bear in mind that the LHA's in the USN are bigger than a lot of other countries aircraft carriers.

 

[PLA2025]

I think some of you guys think too much that the world would be that much anti-chinese. The only nation that would join the US forces without hesitation to contain and attack Chinese forces in no matter what clashes would be Japan! Even South Korea and India wouldn't engage China without thinking it twice, not because of strategic capability etc. but far more in the interests of Asia! If China falls, Russia, India, Korea, Taiwan etc. would much feel the political and strategical presence and dominance of the US which might illuminate another colonization sentiment like what happened in the 18th and 19th century to most Asian countries! Asians want to do their own politics and don't want to be puppets like in the past. China is growing in international influence, that is right, but they haven't interfered and critisize other nations and other tradition and values like some industrial nations.

By the way, Taiwan lies within Chinese sea territorial lines which means, they wouldn't have violated any other nations border!

 

[PLA2025]

ok, from the strategic discussion back to the pure military assesment discussion about China to buil aircraft carriers:
China will deploy their own carriers, maybe in 10 years or later and no matter what others claim and accuse China. Although I must say that China might not need them at all (the only carriers which were much needed in conflicts were those of the USN). Other nations carriers like from India, Australia, France and the UK have been sitting idle for many years. So I believe that China (as long they don't want to play showing off too much) might deploy 2 - 3 carriers with 50.000t - 80.000t displacements and having less than 5 LPD's in the future. The LPD's might come in handy for humanitarian missions for carrying transport helicopters to a certain region or to provide support for the PLAN fleet with Z-9 armed with torpedos etc. Then goes the question for the larger carriers whether steam-turbine or nuclear powerplant! But that's the business the Chinese engineers must take care of. Carrier vessels will most likely come to service for the PLAN in the within the next 20 years but the highest priority for the PLAN is securing its own waters with developping and deploying more advanced submarines and surface combatants. If they don't, there is even no need to talk about a blue water fleet IMO.

 

[tonbo]

interesting how the PLAN's interest in carriers or seeming lack of it has sparked debates about the mental / technical ability of the Chinese nation & its intent as a whole

notice :

- China is the 3rd nation on Earth to send its own ppl into Space , when Japan , which built the most well-armoured and supposedly efficient aircraft carriers in WW2 has sent none on its own , yet .

- China does have the Varyag , due to be completed pending the intended alternative powerplant ... if not for its powerplant being stripped off by the Ukranians prior to handing over , not that many years ago . having acquired the blueprints to the ship ages ago ... ^^;

- what Japan could pour out in WW2 , now China can do better , with no real lack of natural resources or design staff of ability , if that's what the Chinese wanted . its their choice of priorities . it's all part of their effort to establish a true "Blue Water" Fleet , one that can truly uphold its territorial integrity & provide effective assistance in times of crisis in the region ( East , South East & South Asia ...)

- the sheer size of one's forces doesn't count anymore , but rather its lethality

- 5000-6000 years of war and peace ~ does it spell wisdom ?

 

[PLA2025]

there are also many things mixed up with the modernization and build up of any nations armed forces.
Although the military of Singapore, China, Japan and India have been increasing in strength and advanced weapon systems, that doesn't mean that the modernization would mean to prepare for an "offensive" war. Although I want China's PLA/PLAAF and PLAN among the world's best armies, airforces and navys, that doesn't mean that I would support any kind of offensive usage of the Chinese forces. Every nation needs armed forces which are capable to defend their own soils, skies and waters. The modernization within the PLA is needed, especially in the PLAAF where over 60-70% of its units(planes) are still obsolete (J-8, J-7, J-6, Q-5, H-6 etc.)
China actually is not increasing the amount of its troops or vehicles but far more replacing its obsolete stuff with advanced stuff while making the PLA smaller from 2.5 to 2.2 mio. soldiers.

 

[Francois]

Well, not sure it is the place to post that, but the reason China is #3 to put a bloke in space is not mystery!
US and USSR did it during the cold war. It was part of the game then.
EU and Japan didn't need to do it (I am still looking for a reason), but they both had the technology for decades now.
Now, they prefer to work all together and make their research with the space station in a common way.
They did put satellites on orbits for 40 years now. Nothing to prove to anybody.
Now my question:
With all these programs, what is China trying to prove, and to who?

 

[doggychow14]

Again the West imposses double standards. When the US or the EU modernize their military, there is no outcry. When China develops something that is almost twenty years behind compared to Western counterparts, China is preparing for an offensive war. Space exploration is a logical step into technological advancement. China has every right to do so. It is a sense of accomplishment and national pride. If you would just open up a history book and compare the east and the west in imperialism, the results will come to surprise. you. China would love to be part of the international space community and become a partner in the INternation Space Station. However based on the US, it is not technologically ready to join and the the technology given to China would be a national security threat. Yet on the other hand, it claims China's space technology is a threat to US space assets. The US is the only country which refuses to sign the treaty to ban space weapons.

 

[Francois]

Again, China is playiing solo this game.
Now they are begging EU to embark on the ISS to get hold (and they don't even hide it) of the techno there to make their own thing! Just for themselves.

Back to the CV now...

 

[tonbo]

odd , weren't the Europeans involved in the ISS already? i know some countries are ... unless i remembered wrongly , but it maybe China wants to piggy-back on EU's participation and benefit from being an observer ... no wrong in learning from others mistakes , or what to avoid ... ^_^;

i saw the collection of pix of the Varyag @ the gallery (neat), then i read some report carried on some sites propogating a 2009 date for an indigenous carrier to be built (news that has no doubt been refuted) ... wonder

 

[Gollevainen]

Those reports of china supposedly is aquiring a european aircraft carrier, are almoust ten years old...we all know that nothing never came up from those...Western military analyzes seems to have about chinese size hole in what comes to upgradeding weaponry information. I just recieved first printed western puplication (weyers flottentaschenbuch 200572007) which introduces the newest PLAN equipment, most notably the new DDGs and FFGs. It says nothing about Varyag but is stating instead that a ~7500 ton DDH (helicopter destroyer) is building at Dalian Shipyard (the book mentioned 115 as well so it cannot mean that one) ?????????????? Antoher sad example of misguided western military publishers or can China actually build something hidden from the internet forumliggers wathing the chinese shipbuilding prosess like a hawk....???....I really don't know...?

 

[tonbo]

Don't believe those western writings ... did i mention Taiwanese ones as well ? no insult intended (really)
but Chinese bloggers are more agressive toward false info and their originators than we give them credit for ...

looks like i gotta spend more time on the Chinese sites then ... ^_^;

 

[Jeff Head]

The US is the only country which refuses to sign the treaty to ban space weapons.

Hmmm...I bet there is a very easy answer as to why...both as to why other nations want this, and why the US would refuse. A simple benefits analysis regarding all parties would probably render the answer.

 

[Snayke]

Francois - Have you ever considered that China have the space program up and running to boost the morale of their people? To actually encourage kids to goto university, and work for China instead of being hired by western companies. It's not easy trying to hire people when foreign companies can pay a lot more the amount.

 

[tonbo]

hee , been reading the " original " post abt the supposed carrier's construction and it being ready , with task force ensemble , by maybe 2008 or so ... ~ all hogwash

the style of writing is all too familiar , ... really

it starts off innocently enuf - as some port worker's euphoric tell-all on the PLAN's latest project , except that for a port worker , the originator seems all too well-read and internet-savvy , going into details on what the Russians are purportedly good at ( ... powerplants ... 32 knots ... ) and what complement of planes the carrier is likely gonna carry (... j7 ... j11 ), plus a low down on the version of radar and electronics suite that has been ordered from the Russians ...

all that frm a typical port worker ... man alive ... major disinformation man ... !
prolly meant to make us raise hackles with China abt their defence budget , when they spend so much more while fighting epidemics , floods , coal-mine incidents , earthquakes , educating their poor ...

okay , i trust that if a carrier force ever becomes necessary* , China will announce its formation plainly

* to uphold sea , airspace integrity and ensure access to vital sea lines of communication / trade routes

it would be hard for China to forget any of all that the United States has done for it , thru times of adversity & prosperity ... anyways i'm waiting to see how the Varyag might turn out , whether it be a floating casino or a training carrier ...