China - Geostrategic & Geopolitical.
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WRT you puzzlement, they may not have been aware of it. If they weren't they certainly will be now.
I read the Safeguard report last night, and it would not surprise me if such illegal police stations exist in both Australia and NZ. There's large PRC communities in both countries as well as HK political refugees, Falun Gong, Tibetan, and Uyghur communities.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Cost of Decoupling
No surprising there. Considering how decoupling cost with Russia keep piling up (especialy toward Euro Zone), just imagine how much bigger the cost of decoupling with China.
One thing for sure, this why when Collective West try to push everyone else to follow their 'isolating Russia' wagon, many refuse to do it. It is not just matter of Geopolitics, but also cost on doing decoupling.
Close to 2 weeks ago, I saw this interview of George Yeo (ex Foreign Minister of Singapore) on why US can not expect most Asian countries including US close allies will definetely follow US move to containt China.
In short what incentives for many Asians to isolate China for US demands ? Don't get me wrong, many Asians are worries with China move, but as Mr Yeo put in the interview above many also worries with US move.
Realities of multipolar word order seems need to be accepted and sink in within Washington political circles.
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Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
A "multipolar world order" only works if the relevant participants are willing to play by the same rulebook. If countries like China are not, what that policy means in reality is dividing the world up into spheres of influence. That's not acceptable to countries like the US and increasingly other NATO states, Japan, Australia, etc.
I'm sure that George Yeo is concerned but that's because he doesn't want Singapore to have to choose between China and the US.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Playing with same rulebook is not multipolar, it is unipolar as one rule govern all. This's the dream of those in Washington and many in collective west, especially after they won cold war.
Realities is showing trend toward multipolar. Because the rest of the world outside collective west increasingly getting bigger, thus not want to be dictate by collective west rules only. They want their own rules.
Multipolar can be results on multiple scenarios. Some polar want to co-op while some others want competition, some even want confrontation. However if the reality of multipolar sink in, then cost assessment of various actions will be calculated.
The article from Financial Times shown how some in Japan already begin to do calculation of costs assessment. Thus it can results they won't necessarily follow Washington demand all the way.
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Multipolar means multiple power centres, not multiple sets of rules. If one country was dominant, & others had to fall into line with it to some degree, the world would be unipolar. But countries competing for power & influence can agree to a set of rules, for their own protection. Nobody wants to trigger a nuclear holocaust, for example, so some rules which avoid getting into one unintentionally benefit both or multiple sides of a multipolar world.
It's not like Lord of the Rings. Some agreed rules don't mean one ring to rule them all.
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
There are always people who will disagree with government policy anywhere. Even now China has its cheerleaders in countries, saying stuff along the lines of "if we just be nicer to the CCP, they'll be chill" and "can't we just let them have Taiwan, I'm sure they'll pinky-swear to be nice".
I'm not surprised if some Japanese chipmakers are worried about the cost of worse economic relations with China, because they're only interested in the bottom line. But if the Japanese government supports the US - or the US just takes unilateral action that Japanese companies need to follow to avoid being sanctioned - said concerned parties will have to get on with it.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
I actually don't understand the zero-Covid policy of the chinese government. 2019-nCoV/Covid-19 has become a part of our life, like so many other diseases like SARS, MERS and others, its only less deathly. In a lot of countries you even get collective immunity.
But still they keeping to have extreme lockdowns and the creepy way of control and tracking the population. They not only mess up the life of the people (ofcourse the CCP doesn't care about this), but it is also damaging the image of china and the economy.
www.bbc.com
nos.nl
www.bbc.com
And now about the Uyghurs.
Because of a UN-report about an investigation of the suppression and discrimination of the Uyghurs with genocidal tendencies, 50 (mostly Western) countries are demanding the release of the Uyghurs.
nos.nl
But its actually 100% guaranteed that china gives a s**t about the report and demands, and that nothing will change for the Uyghurs.
But still they keeping to have extreme lockdowns and the creepy way of control and tracking the population. They not only mess up the life of the people (ofcourse the CCP doesn't care about this), but it is also damaging the image of china and the economy.
Apple: Chinese workers flee Covid lockdown at iPhone factory
Video shared online shows people jumping a fence to escape the plant, owned by Foxconn, in Zhengzhou.
www.bbc.com
Arbeiders Chinese Apple-fabriek slaan op de vlucht, bang voor quarantaine
Een corona-uitbraak in 's werelds grootste fabriek voor Apple producten zorgt ervoor dat steeds meer medewerkers op de vlucht slaan.
nos.nl
Shanghai Disney: Visitors unable to leave without negative Covid test as park shuts
Rides are continuing to operate for those trapped inside The Happiest Place on Earth.
www.bbc.com
And now about the Uyghurs.
Because of a UN-report about an investigation of the suppression and discrimination of the Uyghurs with genocidal tendencies, 50 (mostly Western) countries are demanding the release of the Uyghurs.
Tientallen landen roepen China op Oeigoeren vrij te laten
In de Noord-Chinese regio Xinjiang zitten naar schatting een miljoen moslims vast in detentiekampen. Eind augustus kwam een zeer kritisch VN-rapport uit over de situatie van de Oeigoeren.
nos.nl
But its actually 100% guaranteed that china gives a s**t about the report and demands, and that nothing will change for the Uyghurs.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
It is going to be multiple sets of Rules that being agree by all power centers as part of 'compromise'. The rulebook will come out as be based on 'cost' calculations of each potential scenarios.
In Unipolar that's what happen. One set of rules which being push by one dominant polar to all. In Multipolar that rules are coming after set of compromises based on each power cost own calculations assesment.
Yes, that's only happen after each of power based calculate the costs assesment and decides what compromises they can agree. Compromises is the 'key' word that result after each power doing their own costs assesment. It is different on getting the rules then unipolar where the one dominant power practically push everyone else to set of rules they prefered.
That happen after the costs assesment process. What FT shown is how assesment process now being done even by US closes allies like Japan. "If" Japan own assesment shown they will follow US, and they will push the business to do that. However the process means also potential other way around.
US 'suggests' EU impose a chip export ban on China - Asia Times
The United States reportedly is calling on the European Union to impose a semiconductor export ban on China – but Chinese officials and media doubt the
asiatimes.com
As this is one. Will US 'suggestion' in the mind of those in Washinton same with US 'push' ? Will EU going to follow US 'demand' blindly or they want compromise on that ?
All this part of emerging multipolar order. Question remain if those in Wahington aware and accept this, or still try to cling on toward their 'Unipolar' idea that work for them after cold war.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
I'm afraid it is something that derive more on Xi's faction stuborness. They should see how the other countries practicess means the zero covid practicess can be 'loosen' bit more.
Perhaps they are not confident enough on their own vaccines ? Many others mixed Chinese Vaccines with Western ones as part gerting more protection results. China now already come out with their own MRNA vaccines, perhaps after that rolling they have more confidence.
All this just speculations, but for me is part of Xi's stuborness and shown he is in full control.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Put it in here, not in ASEAN thread. This is relevance I believe with George Yeo interview I've put before. Despite all the talks of Asians getting warry with China, at the same time they still need to balance the relationships.
Vietnam getting largest shares of Industry that relocated from China due to latest trend of US and China tit for tat exchanges. Yes other ASEAN members got some shares of relocations, but most of them goes to Vietnam. This is from one of China neigbour that has more real "blood" confrontations before with China.
Why ? Because Vietnam is closest to China, thus can source more towards Chinese production value chains network. In the end costs matter, especially this inflationaries trend shown that. For this last three decades, China already establish themselves as the most efficients in term of production and logistical costs on sourcing production chain networks. Thus despite this talk to relocate 'final' productions stage toward outside China, the productions parts value chains still mostly come from China.
Thus this all talks from Washington to push decoupling from China, will have to be seen how many of others really going on jumping toward that wagon. In the end economics due matters most.
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It's not his stubbornness but definitely about showing that he's in control. The CCP look in fear at the collapse of the Soviet Union and loss of power by the CPSU. They judge Gorbachev's policies of glasnost and perestroika as abject failures caused by Gorbachev acknowledging that the CPSU had made mistakes. Gorbachev had committed the penultimate communist heresy in admitting that the Party was fallible. In communist dogma the Party is infallible, meaning that it never makes mistakes; individuals make mistakes, the Party never. According to CCP logic that lead to the ultimate destruction of the USSR and CPSU loss of power. In communist dogma the gaining of power and retention of it at all costs, is the ultimate goal and reason for being. The loss of power is an absolute nightmare and regarded as the end of times. The CCP resolved never to repeat Gorbachev's mistakes, and they avoid anything resembling glasnost and perestroika like the plague.
Since Xi has made the Zero Covid policy official CCP policy he can no longer back down and go "oops we made a stuff up", because that would immediately imply, rightfully or wrongly, that the Party had made a mistake. Since under communist dogma it's perfect and infallible, Xi cannot cancel the Zero Covid Policy. Equally since he is one of the architects and public face of the policy, he cannot cancel it because it would mean tremendous loss of face, and open him up to attacks from his enemies because he would be perceived as being weak. So he's really snookered himself.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Somehow I do think this is more on His Personal Image rather then Party image. CCP has shown several times they are willing to change policies, however they are doing it silently and sometimes by stages. I saw this related to market and economics, like in real estate or credit union that already taken funds from publics. So they are willing to acknowledge mistakes, even though not in the same way others done it.
However I do see this zero covid policy more personal matter for him. He wants to shown his approach on covid with 'strict regimented' control due shown better management on pandemics and health control. On top of that I suspect Xi's faction has't got enough confidence that their population 'real' anti body resistance level to the Covid already reach high enough level.
If it is only Party/CCP image, I do sense he's wiling to make gradual relaxing approach. However if this is related to his own image, then it is another story. Afterall he just manage doing cleansing up of CCP leadership. Perhaps not thourough enough yet. I just speculating in here, that if he is already have enough confidence of his total control, perhaps then he will begin gradual loosen up.
Hong Kong already done some gradual approach, perhapd because Xi's faction already have enough confidence on their grip in HK. Perhaps Xi's faction now using this opportunities to stiring up potential opposition in the reast of mainland, before they are sure on their overall grip.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Saudi Arabia Reiterates Commitment To China, Regardless Of U.S. Concerns | OilPrice.com
Saudi Arabia last week reiterated its commitment to China as its “most reliable partner and supplier of crude oil,”.
oilprice.com
I not entirely in agreement with this article assesment on Saudi tipping to China. However it is just part of 'others' lesser power adjusment of changing patern in World Order. This is what I put as tendencies of multipolar going to be determine by power of 'compromises' which it turn going to be seen as 'bargain' on set of rules, rather then follow set of rules being dictated by the dominant power on unipolar.
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
Saudi Arabia Reiterates Commitment To China, Regardless Of U.S. Concerns | OilPrice.com
Saudi Arabia last week reiterated its commitment to China as its “most reliable partner and supplier of crude oil,”.
I not entirely in agreement with this article assesment on Saudi tipping to China. However it is just part of 'others' lesser power adjusment of changing patern in World Order. This is what I put as tendencies of multipolar going to be determine by power of 'compromises' which it turn going to be seen as 'bargain' on set of rules, rather then follow set of rules being dictated by the dominant power on unipolar.
That article is completely irrelevant to your position.
No one has argued that Saudi Arabia should or was considering imposing an oil embargo on China. Indeed, that's the last thing the US or its allies want because that might cause China to start a war like Japan did. An oil embargo or reduced oil exports to China would only happen if the CCP attacked one of its neighbours.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
I think it is highly unlikely that china starts a war if Saudi-Arabia stops exporting oil because of an american embargo.
- The oil stock/fuel reserves of china will be already on a low level.
- A war will damage china's economy even more.
- Who do they have to attack?
Besides that Russia will be willing to export to china.
Vietnam is politically stable (unlike Myanmar), investor-friendly, has consistent policies & has lower wages & other costs than Thailand or Malaysia.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
That article shown how the new reality of China position makes some lesser power behave differently, and US can't expect the like of Saudi to 'kowtow' on their demand as easily as before.
That's the question the article point out. How do you know if that happens others lesser power especially outside collective west will 'kowtow' to US and Collective West demand, or they'll bargain on their own. How do you know that Saudi will just following US lead embargoes if that happens ?
The article shown how even now Saudi already doing differently then US wagon demand, not only toward China but also Russia. A country that already invading a neighbor and already become focus of US and Collective West embargoes. Yes Saudi will not embargoes oil to other large oil producer like Russia, but Saudi still co-op with Russia despite US demand.
So this article it's very relevant shown the new reality of multipolar order coming in. That's my position.
Yes it is, however it is also benefits from the direct proximity to China, which give them advantage of the other costs (not just wages) to other ASEAN when attracting relocation from China.
However the point of that video also related to what George Yeo video before. Even a neighbor that have every reasons to be wary with China, has shown balance approach to China still hold. Even during this continue lowering point of relationship between China and US.
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Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
I didn't say that Saudi Arabia would stop selling it. But an embargo might be enforced by the navies of countries at war with China/supporting those attacked by China. Saudia Arabia would be powerless to stop that.
Hence me saying "or reduced oil exports".
i'm curious what rulebook are we talk about here? like examples? furthermore isn't most the rules were made after wwii lead by US? i dont recall china ever involved in making these rulebook given they didn't establish relationship with US till 70s.