China - Geostrategic & Geopolitical.

[ngatimozart]

Breaking news: the recent rumors of Chinese coup have been investigated by brave investigators in Beijing, brace yourself:


(Apologies to all, I could not resist...)

This is for you.



I posted a video link in the Ukraine Russian War thread last night which discussed the possibility of a coup and came up with the conclusion that it didn't happen (I will edit the link in here later). I suggest that the rumours have started because of the infighting between the Xi Jinping and the Jiang Zemin factions. It's getting really close to the start of the 20th Part Conference which is about three weeks away, so both the factions are becoming very serious now with one or the other probably becoming somewhat desperate if it is starting to realise that it quite hasn't got the numbers. This is a literal life and death struggle because the losers won't be allowed to gracefully retire from public life as has been the rule in the past. This power struggle has been really bitter and vicious and gone well beyond the normal factional infighting that occurs when the leadership is supposed to change, so the losers will suffer death and / or long terms of imprisonment depending upon how far up the food chain they were in the losing faction.

My suspicion is that the Jiang faction has spread these rumours in an attempt to make Xi look bad. I originally thought that it might've been the Xi faction spreading them in order to portray Jiang Zemin and his faction as traitors and a political clique, but they would nothing have to gain because in the end the rumours would make Xi look bad. A coup d'état had been plotted against him with he had failing to detect and smash it. Definitely not a good look for someone aspiring to be the Great Helmsman next to Mao.

 

[koxinga]

My suspicion is that the Jiang faction has spread these rumours in an attempt to make Xi look bad. I originally thought that it might've been the Xi faction spreading them in order to portray Jiang Zemin and his faction as traitors and a political clique, but they would nothing have to gain because in the end the rumours would make Xi look bad. A coup d'état had been plotted against him with he had failing to detect and smash it. Definitely not a good look for someone aspiring to be the Great Helmsman next to Mao.

What I've seen (and I can't remember the specific account that did a linked analysis) seems to suggest the source of this Xi coup came from accounts from India.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573810643748417536

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573729764484980744

 

[ngatimozart]

What I've seen (and I can't remember the specific account that did a linked analysis) seems to suggest the source of this Xi coup came from accounts from India.

This is the video I posted yesterday in the Ukrainian war thread.

Lei's sources are within the PRC so I have more trust her material than I do to the various Indian sources. Having said that, the Jiang faction have a history of using western and non western media and others to carry on their fight against the Xi faction. I have also come across various Indian based posters, fanbois, trolls etc., in various social media platforms who are well versed in English, so educated, but don't leave a positive impression of their culture or country.

 

[koxinga]

This is the video I posted yesterday in the Ukrainian war thread.

Lei's sources are within the PRC so I have more trust her material than I do to the various Indian sources. Having said that, the Jiang faction have a history of using western and non western media and others to carry on their fight against the Xi faction. I have also come across various Indian based posters, fanbois, trolls etc., in various social media platforms who are well versed in English, so educated, but don't leave a positive impression of their culture or country.

What I see for certain is they (Indians) are amplifying the coup story with some glee mixed in while not making any attempt to fact check it.

Well, they seem to be happy in the misery of others. A China in a coup situation is probably more dangerous for the rest of the world than a dictatorship.

 

[Delta204]

Well, they seem to be happy in the misery of others. A China in a coup situation is probably more dangerous for the rest of the world than a dictatorship.

Maybe, maybe not. Xi has been very vocal in his criticism of democracy. Nicholas Goldberg: Is democracy failing? Xi Jinping says it is, and he’s not entirely wrong - Los Angeles Times (latimes.com). But a big advantage of democracy over an autocracy like Xi's or Putin's is that democracy can handle a transfer of power with relative ease (sometimes it's bumpy like the last US election - but this is rare and not the norm).

Xi and Putin specifically have removed every off ramp that would allow for an orderly transfer of power - this doubling down on their control almost ensures that they cannot be replaced... at least not peacefully. And while their grip on power seems secure for now, things can change suddenly as history has shown - so they soon become obsessively inward focused on maintaining this grip on power (Xi and Putin hardly travel anymore and I would guess neither will travel much in the future).

We may soon see democratic rivals use this to their advantage. While the security apparatus of both Xi and Putin are remarkable - they are not immune from crisis. A crisis or controversy in a democratic country results in a temporary period of turmoil - likely with an election that see's a new party take power. After a few weeks or months, things typically return to normal. Such a crisis for Xi or Putin would be cataclysmic... only a matter of time before a rival takes advantage and uses this to keep someone like Xi in check.

 

[John Fedup]

Maybe, maybe not. Xi has been very vocal in his criticism of democracy. Nicholas Goldberg: Is democracy failing? Xi Jinping says it is, and he’s not entirely wrong - Los Angeles Times (latimes.com). But a big advantage of democracy of autocracy like Xi's or Putin's is that democracy can handle a transfer of power with relative ease (sometimes it's bumpy like last US election - but this is rare and not the norm).

Xi and Putin specifically have removed every off ramp that would allow for an orderly transfer of power - this doubling down on their control almost ensures that they cannot be replaced... at least not peacefully. And while their grip on power seems secure for now, things can change suddenly as history has shown - so they soon become obsessively inward focused on maintaining this grip on power (Xi and Putin hardly travel anymore and I would guess neither will not travel much in the future).

We may soon see democratic powers use this to their advantage. While the security apparatus of both Xi and Putin are remarkable - they are still one incident away from crisis. A crisis or controversy in a democratic country results in a temporary period of turmoil - likely with an election that see's a new party take power. After a few weeks or months, things typically return to normal. Such a crisis for Xi or Putin would be cataclysmic... only a matter of time before a rival takes advantage and uses this to keep someone like Xi in check.

Siorry for the pollie commitment but it is a worrisome observation. Agree with your post but I think there are valid concerns wrt transfer of power in the US. The US mid-terms will be an indicator of what happens in 2024. If the GOP rejects Trump that will be positive but there are some some really questionable alternatives lurking.

 

[koxinga]

Xi and Putin

You might well be right but I am not keen to mention Xi and Putin in the same breath.

While both are autocracies, there are considerable differences in the power structure. It's like trying to put the US, Japan and Canada in the same breath because they are democracies.

 

[ngatimozart]

A China in a coup situation is probably more dangerous for the rest of the world than a dictatorship.

I would actually disagree with that. As I see it there is only one faction who could mount a coup, having the resources and people in place to do so; and that is the Jiang faction. BUT and this is a big but, for it to succeed they would have to ensure that they had enough support within the Standing Committee of the Politburo in order to have Xi removed from the CMC and preferably purged by the Standing Committee. It wouldn't be open rebellion on the streets like we saw in Myanmar or what used to be South America's favourite political past time during the 1970s and 1980s. All the fighting and any bloodshed would be behind closed gates and closed doors, much like when the Gang of Four were deposed after Mao died.

 

[koxinga]

Ah what you described (e.g factional infighting, subsequent purges) sound just like a normal process in China.

A coup by any definition is an extra constitutional regime change, imposed outside the system of government such as military action. I do not think the Jiang faction is capable to secure enough support in the Standing Committee, even though Xi's leadership in C19 is questionable..

Personally, I think Xi needs to provide an off ramp from C19 in the coming months else the pressure will really be explosive. There are already significant signs

 

[Ananda]

End of Hong Kong’s Covid quarantine fuels hope of looser China rules

International businesses welcome easing of restrictions but attention turns to mainland policy

www.ft.com

Sorry if some find this behind pay wall. However this from FT talk on recent loosening on HK Covid 19 restrictions, raise some speculation on other Chinese Covid 19 policies in mainland.

Chinese market now raise hope recent development on Global Covid trend will loosen CCP stringent zero covid prefention thinking. It is not realistic anymore.

 

[Ananda]

China on course to elude US chip-making equipment bans - Asia Times

Chinese tech giant Huawei’s attempt to make semiconductors without American equipment has generated global headlines as the US-China tech war takes yet

asiatimes.com

Another assesment on how Washington derived policies from their think tank, still believe that China can not catching up. In realities with the amount of money they are investing, they can.

Forcing Asian allies to cut off China, in fact can force China to complete their own semiconductors value chain domestically. The article shown what market already knows, despite ROK and Taiwan leads in semiconductor foundries, despite US leads in design, or Netherland leads in Litography, none have build complete value chain domestically asside Japan.

Thus if Japan can do it, then China can also do it. With current cost structure in fact China can create more cost efficient semi conductor value chain relative to Japan or even US. What US done basically forcing China to be independent from any US control influences.

This can really create another global polar that more or less free from Collective West (US and Eurozone especially) influences. Which in turn will create question on will Japan, ROK, and Taiwan really want to cut off China as US demand.

 

[ngatimozart]

China on course to elude US chip-making equipment bans - Asia Times

Chinese tech giant Huawei’s attempt to make semiconductors without American equipment has generated global headlines as the US-China tech war takes yet

asiatimes.com

Another assesment on how Washington derived policies from their think tank, still believe that China can not catching up. In realities with the amount of money they are investing, they can.

Forcing Asian allies to cut off China, in fact can force China to complete their own semiconductors value chain domestically. The article shown what market already knows, despite ROK and Taiwan leads in semiconductor foundries, despite US leads in design, or Netherland leads in Litography, none have build complete value chain domestically asside Japan.

Thus if Japan can do it, then China can also do it. With current cost structure in fact China can create more cost efficient semi conductor value chain relative to Japan or even US. What US done basically forcing China to be independent from any US control influences.

This can really create another global polar that more or less free from Collective West (US and Eurozone especially) influences. Which in turn will create question on will Japan, ROK, and Taiwan really want to cut off China as US demand.

Ah but China doesn't yet have the technology to get to the advanced level required to print the chips. Yes they will eventually get there bit it will take them time and it's technology and knowledge that they are unable to steal. They have a similar problem with gas turbine engine fan blade metallurgy.

 

[Ananda]

but China doesn't yet have the technology to get to the advanced level required to print the chips.

Do They ? That's the question actually the article talk. Seems indication so far they are able to work around some barriers to come out close to what US try to avoid them to reach.

US-China chip war offers glimpse of a future no one wants

A deglobalising world would be far less efficient and a lot more paranoid – just look at US attempts to block China from the global semiconductor market. Such efforts force other chip-making economies to choose sides and raise the risk that China will seek to domesticate its entire supply chain...

www.scmp.com

This is another article that talk on similar view more or less. Decoupling that being force by US will create independent Chinese value chain. Which in the actually put Japan, ROK and Taiwan on cross fire limbo. Something that in the end raise questions whether those three US Asian allies willing to follow US demand to really cut China. In the end this also reflect to those three semiconductor market survivabilities.

Will US action in the end create more independent China in semicinductors that can potentially squezze ROK, Japan and Taiwan from not only Chinese market but also other non western market? That's the questions both articles raises.

 

[ngatimozart]

Do They ? That's the question actually the article talk. Seems indication so far they are able to work around some barriers to come out close to what US try to avoid them to reach.

From what I understand the lithographic machinery required to print chips at resolutions equivalent to those of the latest Taiwanese, European, and American chips is able to print resolutions down to something like 6 nanometres and the Chinese chips at present are only at a resolution of 17 nanometres, so that's nearly 3 times less the resolution of the western and Taiwanese ones.

 

[Ananda]

Just add what the articles wrote. Actually they (Chinese) already reach 7nm. However without Dutch EUV (thus still relied on older DUV), I believe there's some questions whether the process will be as efficient with those using latest EUV. I believe there's technical studies on that, bit forgot where the articles on that. Still even that, there's still plus-minus process that China can still reach and catching up along the way.

The questions on both articles actually talk whether US Asian Allies in the end will follow US demand on cutting off China, thus really force full 'decoupling'. Both articles raise questions whether full decoupled China can benefits those three US allies in their semiconductors future. While in the same time really hold China progress on semiconductors.

Both articles basically shown doubt the full decoupling (as Biden administrations wants), can stop China progress in semiconductors. In short decoupling China, still can not hold them in reaching tech parities. While giving potential risk on the expense of Japan, ROK, and Taiwan semiconductors industry market access.

 

[koxinga]

Asianometry has a fascinating set of videos that describe in great depth, China's chip industry as well as TSMC.

China's 7nm Chips: SMIC N+2

The Flawed Assumptions Behind China’s Big Semiconductor Fund

Why Every 3nm Process Node is Different

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Meanwhile in Manchester....

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581681833003012097

It seems that the man kicking down the banner could be Consul-General Zheng Xiyuan.

 

[ngatimozart]

Meanwhile in Manchester....

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581681833003012097

It seems that the man kicking down the banner could be Consul-General Zheng Xiyuan.

Great tolerance of opposing political beliefs, does the CCP have, not. Methinks that they may have broken some UK laws there, but they'll claim diplomatic immunity.

 

[swerve]

A blatant abuse of diplomatic immunity. The UK would be within its rights to expel everyone involved, & if the consul refuses to identify them, the entire staff including the consul.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

A blatant abuse of diplomatic immunity. The UK would be within its rights to expel everyone involved, & if the consul refuses to identify them, the entire staff including the consul.

Yes, kicking a banner is maybe not sever enough to expell diplomats, but beating up a protester is something else.

Update. They are identified.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1582106579763367936

Positive point: the diplomats are strictly following the British Covid-rules and keep their masks on whole the time.



Something else.
I'm sorry to say this, but this is just pure treason. How could they do this!?

China's armed forces recruiting dozens of British ex military pilots in 'threat to UK interests'

All British former service personnel, who have accepted jobs to train Chinese military pilots, "are almost certainly enhancing China's military knowledge and capability," an official has said.

news.sky.com