China - Geostrategic & Geopolitical.

[John Fedup]

For Chinese/Confucian societies what Xi did was a slap to the face to Trudeau, you don't speak that strongly against someone.

And as an European I classify what happened as Canada fault, no one publicizes all diplomacy made, it would be a suicide, there is real politik and what the public receives, lets not hit around the bush, if someone leaks a conversation like that it has a purpose(internal or external) thus the other party is completely entitled to be offended by so.

Junior has had verbal diarrhea for years. Just one of his many faults.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

China Covid: Protests continue in major cities across the country

Demonstrators gathered in the capital Beijing and the financial hub Shanghai, as well as Wuhan.

www.bbc.co.uk

There's no evidence that this is part of a growing movement, but it's incredible that hundreds of people took to the streets of Shanghai to openly call for Xi Jinping's resignation given everyone present could immediately go to jail. There have been protests in villages and small towns, but usually against local politicians. Certainly not in a tier 1 city like Shanghai against the head of government.

EDIT: Ok, protests may be spreading albeit still small. This was supposedly taken in Wuhan.

 

[John Fedup]

China Covid: Protests continue in major cities across the country

Demonstrators gathered in the capital Beijing and the financial hub Shanghai, as well as Wuhan.

www.bbc.co.uk

There's no evidence that this is part of a growing movement, but it's incredible that hundreds of people took to the streets of Shanghai to openly call for Xi Jinping's resignation given everyone present could immediately go to jail. There have been protests in villages and small towns, but usually against local politicians. Certainly not in a tier 1 city like Shanghai against the head of government.

EDIT: Ok, protests may be spreading albeit still small. This was supposedly taken in Wuhan.

Given the rigid state control in Xi’s paradise, it is incredible. That being said, being confined to a high rise condo for days on end is pretty much jail anyway.

 

[koxinga]

EDIT: Ok, protests may be spreading albeit still small. This was supposedly taken in Wuhan.

Articles like this often highlight the event (1) without a larger context (2) projecting their own views (it's almost gleeful) that it is first wave against an authoritarian regime.

Here is Tsinghua U getting into the act.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1596757601991417856

There are clearly unhappiness and it has indeed boiled over, but there are plenty of stages (and levers that the CCP can pull to defuse the situation) to go before this becomes something truly serious to the CCP. It bears watching but I would urge people to be cautious and not get carried away.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

There are clearly unhappiness and it has indeed boiled over, but there are plenty of stages (and levers that the CCP can pull to defuse the situation) to go before this becomes something truly serious to the CCP.

This is absolutely what I was not suggesting. Not everything should be seen through the lens of "is the CCP about to be overthrown". The significance of the protests isn't that they pose a real threat to the CCP but that people feel bold (or annoyed) enough to demonstrate in public. I don't think non-Chinese media are really suggesting there is any chance of the CCP or Xi being pushed out of power, rather as I am they're showing surprise at these events.

 

[ngatimozart]

Articles like this often highlight the event (1) without a larger context (2) projecting their own views (it's almost gleeful) that it is first wave against an authoritarian regime.

Here is Tsinghua U getting into the act.

There are clearly unhappiness and it has indeed boiled over, but there are plenty of stages (and levers that the CCP can pull to defuse the situation) to go before this becomes something truly serious to the CCP. It bears watching but I would urge people to be cautious and not get carried away.

What's gleeful about it? Nothing. Get serious. People are dying and some more will not have very pleasant futures.

 

[koxinga]

What's gleeful about it? Nothing. Get serious. People are dying and some more will not have very pleasant futures.

I do not understand your statement directed at me and I seek an explanation.

The ones that are gleeful is not me, but plenty of randos that I get on twitter seeing this as this as a first step towards overthrowing Xi and his regime. The tone of articles on CNN holds this subtext as well..

My point in this is not to defend the Xi regime nor to support their increasingly ridiculous dynamic zero COVID, but to highlight an observation that whether these protesta develop into something substantial remains to be seen.

 

[John Fedup]

This is absolutely what I was not suggesting. Not everything should be seen through the lens of "is the CCP about to be overthrown". The significance of the protests isn't that they pose a real threat to the CCP but that people feel bold (or annoyed) enough to demonstrate in public. I don't think non-Chinese media are really suggesting there is any chance of the CCP or Xi being pushed out of power, rather as I am they're showing surprise at these events.

Certainly no chance of the CCP being seriously affected but had these protests started a couple of months earlier would this have changed Xi’s chances of becoming ruler for life at the recent congress meeting?

 

[koxinga]

Unlikely and low, in my opinion.

While embarrassing for the ruling clique and Xi, doesn't change much. It would have required someone or political faction to make use of it during the meeting and that faction (e.g Youth League) needs to be strong enough. And as we saw, Xi has cleaned the field as far as challengers are concerned。

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Awkward silence: China official speechless after question on protests – video

A Chinese representative shuffled papers in a long pause before defending the country's zero-tolerance Coronavirus policy

www.theguardian.com

A fascinating interaction with the international press by the official spokesman for the Chinese government, who has been very arrogant in the past. He was asked a question he should have been expecting, i.e. will the Covid restrictions be lifted in light of the protests. He spent a long time not saying anything before asking the question be repeated - and then pausing again before finally giving a weak reply.

It's almost as if the political leadership are unable to process what happened. If I'd been in his position I'd have had a response ready. Was he really thinking no one would bring it up? He looked like a little kid asked to fill in for an adult.

 

[ngatimozart]

Awkward silence: China official speechless after question on protests – video

A Chinese representative shuffled papers in a long pause before defending the country's zero-tolerance Coronavirus policy

www.theguardian.com

A fascinating interaction with the international press by the official spokesman for the Chinese government, who has been very arrogant in the past. He was asked a question he should have been expecting, i.e. will the Covid restrictions be lifted in light of the protests. He spent a long time not saying anything before asking the question be repeated - and then pausing again before finally giving a weak reply.

It's almost as if the political leadership are unable to process what happened. If I'd been in his position I'd have had a response ready. Was he really thinking no one would bring it up? He looked like a little kid asked to fill in for an adult.

I don't think it's that the political leadership are having trouble processing it, but the exact opposite. They know exactly what they are doing and are biding their time letting the local party cadres and police deal with it. They have very strong memories of 1989 and the student protests then. One mistake that the then Politburo made was instantly going on the offensive and decreeing the protestors as enemies of the state etc. That garnered support and attention for the protestors within the PRC and outside of it. At the same time Hu Yaobang who was the CCP leader at the time had gone and met the protesters listening to their claims. He promised to take them back to the Politburo Standing Committee which he did. However his fellow members didn't agree with his solution and meeting the protestors so he was replaced and held under house arrest until he died 25 or so years later. Deng Xiaoping then ordered the PLA-GF to remove the protestors using main force.

So the current Politburo have been more circumspect and left it to lower cadres to sort it out. If anything turns to custard then the lower cadres at provincial and city level will be the fall guys, not the head honchos. Although I saw a media report before that suggests that head shed have come out accusing the protestors of being anti CCP, anti China, and tools of foreign forces. I am not giving a lot of credence to that report because it's been reported elsewhere at the moment. Xi Jinping has a surveillance capability that would make Deng extremely jealous and cause him to drool even in his grave. With Jiang Zemin's death Xi may take the opportunity to undertake a nationwide crackdown using Jiang's death and funeral security as a pretext. Xi has an almost obsessive compulsive fixation with security so I doubt that he would let such an opportunity pass by unactioned. We'll just have to wait and see. However if I was a protestor in the PRC I would be seriously contemplating my future plans which would have to include an escape plan.

 

[Delta204]

... Xi Jinping has a surveillance capability that would make Deng extremely jealous and cause him to drool even in his grave. With Jiang Zemin's death Xi may take the opportunity to undertake a nationwide crackdown using Jiang's death and funeral security as a pretext. Xi has an almost obsessive compulsive fixation with security so I doubt that he would let such an opportunity pass by unactioned. We'll just have to wait and see. However if I was a protestor in the PRC I would be seriously contemplating my future plans which would have to include an escape plan.

I don't think much of what you have said isn't already known by these protesters. But just like in Iran, people's motivation to defy their government isn't only self-preservation, it goes deeper than that. Also, "security" has a diminishing value in a sense... the more of it you "spend" the less value it holds - so I think Xi et al will be more cautious and measured to use it than you suggest.

I think we in the west should start having frank discussions about how to handle such situations. For the last several years we've heard about how China has sought to influence domestic politics in our own countries (Canada as the most recent example).... well perhaps it's our chance now to turn the screw. Like I've said earlier in this thread, a crisis of power in China vs a democracy has vastly different consequences. Time to use this against Xi imo...

 

[weaponwh]

protest in china is not new, i think china have about 80,000 protests each year for various reason. protest against Xi is rare though

 

[Vivendi]

protest in china is not new, i think china have about 80,000 protests each year for various reason. protest against Xi is rare though

China is not publishing the number of protests anymore (and if they did -- would we trust those numbers)? Protests are not rare, OTOH the country has more than 1.4 billion people.

A Chinese activist, Lu Yuyu, scoured the web and published a data set of all the protests in China that were mentioned online between 2013 and 2016. In the last year he published the data set, the number of protests was 30,000. Lu’s research ended with his arrest and jailing in 2017.

Goebel has taken up the mantle of collecting the data and found that the number of protests has fallen somewhat since, as the government has pushed people to use official hotlines and petitions to voice their complaints. But localized dissent is still a feature of life in China.

The reasons for the large number of protests are very interesting:

Social media posts suggest that a primary cause for protest in China is labor disputes, accounting for 40 percent of the total as of 2016. Most of these have involved issues of compensation, particularly among migrant workers complaining about their wages before heading home for Chinese New Year, Goebel wrote in his study. Another main driver of protest is real estate problems, which have surged in recent years — mostly disgruntled homeowners taking issue with real estate and property management companies.

China scholars have argued that the party allows for these protests to go forward because they are aimed at local authorities rather than the national government, and as such they often help the authorities in Beijing uncover issues at the grassroots level. In that way, these protests may actually be a tool for the regime’s stability rather than a threat to it.

How China’s ‘Bridge Man’ unleashed a global protest against Xi Jinping (grid.news)

 

[Ananda]

The U.S. wants the EU to be strict with China. But Europe can't afford it

The United States has stepped up its heavy rhetoric against China, and wants Europe to follow suit. But the bloc can't quite afford to do the same.

www.cnbc.com

This first article shown the realities of trade competition between China and US (and US effort on bringing others in Collective West and close Asian Allies on the "quest"). Realities not all outside US can afford to be to 'distance' with China.

Client Challenge

This Financial Times article shown more focus situation on Tech War. Realities now China 'independence' from US and Western tech getting more traction. Yes it will hurt China, but just even the trade war with smaller economics power like Russia, it is also can hurting back toward collective west. Especially Euro Zone.

Tian An Men square protests, so far is the biggest that CCP face in their history. Yes there are 'wild hope/dream' in collective west, that the current trend of Covid 19 frustration will snow balling toward bigger protest. However realistically speaking latest trend of protest still miniscule compare to Hong Kong, let alone Tian An Men.

Little spark can be get bigger if there's enough frustration. However that kind of Frustration mostly can get enough Fuel "if" follow by economics/financial collapse. I see how 2 Indonesian Dictators practically being downed by Economic collapse. That's mostly what happen in any authoretarian regimes. Even in Democratic ones, economy is the ones that can bring changes on voting paterns from constituants.

Current economic ailment on China mostly due to their own domestic doing, which is covid lock down. Economics neccesaties that will bring CCP to further open up their restrictions policies. That's and they know well economics frustrations is their biggest threats. Not some democratics mumbo jumbo talks from chinese activists inside or outside China.

 

[Vivendi]

Not some democratics mumbo jumbo talks from chinese activists inside or outside China.

I am sorry you feel that way about democracy. Democracy is not the ideal way of organizing a society however it is definitely better than any alternative so far. I hope that in the future there will be more democracy also in your part of the world. Democracy together with "rules based" global society that resolves conflicts through negotiations is the way to go.

And yes politics is very important although it's difficult to not be very frustrated about politicians sometimes. The biggest challenge facing the world right now is climate change. If politicians don't start taking more actions soon (both in democratic and autocratic countries) then the future looks extremely grim, for all of us. Economic tools are key, and I think the only thing that helps is making greenhouse gas emissions more costly -- this will force the world economy into shifting to solutions with lower emissions (e.g., nuclear instead of coal or gas power plants -- and cows that fart less would also be welcome). Failure to do so will create worldwide conflicts -- civil wars in some places, and war between nations elsewhere. The future is indeed grim unless we start working together, North, South, East and West; democracies and autocratic societies. I am hopeful but also extremely pessimistic. Therefore, NATO countries need to arm themselves, and also work more together with countries sharing the same values in Asia Pacific, including Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea.

My favorite PM, Sanna Marin, from my favorite country Finland, was recently visiting NZ and Australia:

The Prime Ministers pledged to work together to defend and strengthen democracy; promote and protect human rights, including the rights of Indigenous Peoples, media freedom, gender equality, diversity and social inclusion; promote inclusive and interoperable digitalisation; and counter misinformation and disinformation. The Prime Ministers reiterated their strong commitment to being leaders in gender equality and making it central to their governments’ policy and decision‑making.

The leaders acknowledged the critical importance of the multilateral system, with the UN as its cornerstone that underpins the rules-based order, for ensuring global security, stability and prosperity. Australia and Finland are committed to multilateral cooperation to find solutions to the most pressing global challenges. The Prime Ministers highly value the important work of the United Nations Human Rights Council and the broader United Nations human rights system for the promotion and protection of human rights around the world. This includes responding to and ending all forms of sexual and gender-based violence, in all contexts.

Fighting climate change and protecting biodiversity, and realising the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals require global cooperation. We need to make rapid, deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions and act urgently to adapt to climate change in order to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement. We affirm our resolve to work with the international community to pursue efforts to keep 1.5 degrees within reach.

Australia and Finland are like-minded partners in tackling global challenges, including in the Indo-Pacific region. Leaders reaffirmed their adherence to the fundamental principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity and international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, including the right to exercise freedom of navigation and overflight. Australia welcomes increased European engagement in the Indo-Pacific, including through implementation of the EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo‑Pacific.

Joint Statement of the Prime Ministers of Australia and the Republic of Finland | Prime Minister of Australia (pm.gov.au)

Finland has defined a very challenging target to become Carbon neutral by 2035 (they recently finalized a huge nuclear power plant) and net negative by 2040. Finland sets world's most ambitious climate target in law (climatechangenews.com)

It's interesting how they reached this target:
The target was set based on analysis by a group of independent economists from the Finnish climate change panel. They worked out what Finland’s fair share was of the 420 GT of carbon dioxide that the world can emit and still have a two-thirds chance of limiting global warming to 1.5C.

The panel based this fair share on Finland’s share of the global population, its ability to pay to reduce emissions and its historic responsiblity for causing climate change. It is believed to be the first target to have been set in this way.

Finland’s environment minister Emma Kari told Climate Home it was “very important” that the target was set with researchers and people from the climate science community. She added: “High income countries have to take a progressive and active role when it comes to tackling climate change.”

They are also one of the few countries in Europe that can actually defend themselves.

Finland is a country we should study and try to learn from. Not just "democratic mumbo jumbo".

 

[Ananda]

am sorry you feel that way about democracy.

What I feel about democracy is not being talk in my previous post. Please read again. I say economics collapse is the ultimate fuel that can forces down most authoritarian regime, and not democracy mumbo-jumbo. This is already shown through out history.

So safe your lecture on democracy. Especially since democracy 'lecture' is now full of hidden agenda.

 

[Vivendi]

What I feel about democracy is not being talk in my previous post. Please read again. I say economics collapse is the ultimate fuel that can forces down most authoritarian regime, and not democracy mumbo-jumbo. This is already shown through out history.

Thanks for the clarification, it seems I misinterpreted what you wrote.

So safe your lecture on democracy. Especially since democracy 'lecture' is now full of hidden agenda.

Not sure what you mean by "hidden agenda".

 

[Ananda]

sure what you mean by "hidden agenda".

Democracy talk/lectures more and more being used as part of collective western showing off on their superior cultural and way of live. It is one of reasons why many outside collective west increasing negative opinion on 'western' democracy values. Basically not everyone outside collective west will feel their democracy values need to be same as Western democracy values. Everyone entitles to their own value and way of live. Thus nobody better not to lecturing.

I'm not going to discuss more on this as this is defense forum not political ones. Also it is not relevance anyway on bringing changes to non collective west topics anyway.

 

[Ananda]

Client Challenge

Sorry if this is bellow pay wall. However I have tendencies to put more weight on market base media then mainstream media. In this article basically it is shown that despite loosening zero covid policy begin to happen (it is going to be debeatable how much this is influence more due to latest protest or due to economics neccesities), they are still worries on people in rural areas. Especially the seniors. This is what my previous post put (as this is what being predicted by market).

Still seems CCP decide to take risk on their own population efficacies on the latest Covid varriances.