Australian Army Discussions and Updates

[Armchair]

For those who missed it, or perhaps do not understand the significance of it, in a time span of less than 24 months, the entirety of the order for 129 AS-21 Redbacks will be delivered to the Australian Army. I personally suspect that the Hanwha facility established in Geelong will keep ticking along building some stocks of spares and spare parts after the last completed unit leaves some time in 2028. However, absent orders specifically placed to be built at the facility in Australia, I would expect that the Geelong facility will run out of work some time in 2029 or 2030 at the latest.

Minister Conroy may be correct. They may build the production line and then build and deliver 129 IFVs by 2028. I hope he is but that sounds like a once in a generation industrial achievement. Not any chance that one will appear on a projects of concern list?

in any case there is scheduled to be a federal election in 2025. The ALP will expect to retain government (does not matter who you or I think will win, they are Australian politicians and they expect governments to win two terms and almost all of their decisions need to be understood in terms of that calculus). If the ALP loses there is at least some chance a coalition government will order more IFVs (opposition defence spokesperson was scathing about the IFV cut. Statement on Army restructure ).
If the ALP win in 2025 the next election is due in 2028. The factory is in the electorate of the defence minister (also deputy PM) who recused himself from the selection of the vehicle but not from the DSR cuts. Marles won’t want to lose his seat at the point he will be angling to be PM or at least incoming opposition leader. Pretty easy to order more vehicles and to take credit for keeping the factory going. Back self interest at least you know it’s trying.

If the strategic situation deteriorates there will be foreign orders for vehicles from a plant far from hostile missiles, I am sure that is what Hanwha is thinking.

 

[Bob53]

The 2 production lines are good for a decade as it stands. Both companies are huge players offering many different solutions for all domains.
At the moment
Rheinmetall CRV + MASS > Linked to (MRDS?, GMARS?) / (Batch 2 Boxer?)
Hanwha SPH + AARV + IFV > Linked to (Unmanned systems) / (Batch 2 Redback?)
This does not include overseas orders or sustainment.

There is no guarantee of any international orders. Why build stuff that costs twice as much here when it could be built in Asia for way less. the only reason would be that we had capacity and there was an urgent need. If there is no additional IFV or CRV orders in the next 3-4 it’s a monumental cock up for industry.

 

[Reptilia]

There is no guarantee of any international orders. Why build stuff that cost twice as much here. If there is no additional IFV or CRV orders in the next 3-4 it’s a monumental cock up for industry.

No guarantees. Hopefully the German order goes ahead and the kiwis want a few to replace the NZLAVs earlier than expected.
New boxer modules are being developed... I’m quite confident we will see more coming off the line.

 

[Armchair]

There is no guarantee of any international orders. Why build stuff that cost twice as much here. If there is no additional IFV or CRV orders in the next 3-4 it’s a monumental cock up for industry.

I really hope for the sake of the inhabitants of Europe and East Asia there will be no need for urgent new orders. In that case Australia has done its dough but that might be a world where Australia needs fewer armoured vehicles too.

Why build stuff at a cost premium here? The production facilities are remote from attack and most forms of coercion. They are located in a stable democracy with an outwardly respectable human rights record, good recent industrial relations record, (fairly) low corruption index and which has a robust security system and burgeoning interest in cyber defence capabilities. That democracy is closely allied to nuclear powers that can contribute to protecting its communications and supply chains. There is vibrant tourism and cultural presence of Germany and Korea in Australia. (There are factors against Australia too but you asked for reasons why).

How much are those things worth? Maybe not double but Rheinmetall and Hanwha actuaries and analysts will be doing the calculations.

 

[Maranoa]

Force of the north - ABC News
A very good article from the ABC on NORFORCE.
NORFORCE is a Reserve surveillance Unit made up mainly of Indigenous Australians who patrol the far northern remote areas of Australia, in peacetime they mainly concentrate on looking for Illegal Fishing Boats, Drug runners and illegal immigrants, in War time it would be military incursions.

I think you'll find that Norforce is mainly made up of FNQers with Anzac rather than indigenous heritage. When it comes to effectives rather than soldiers just kept on the books for political purposes this is even more apparent. All RFSU's are the same and definitely don't fit the 'agenda' in reality no matter what the PR videos try and pretend.

 

[Arclighy]

I think you'll find that Norforce is mainly made up of FNQers with Anzac rather than indigenous heritage. When it comes to effectives rather than soldiers just kept on the books for political purposes this is even more apparent. All RFSU's are the same and definitely don't fit the 'agenda' in reality no matter what the PR videos try and pretend.

According to A.S.P.I., North West Mobile Force (Norforce) operates across the Northern Territory and the Kimberley region of Western Australia. No mention of FNQ. It's predominantly made up of Reservists, of which 60 percent are from Indigenous communities in Norforce's area of operations. (A.S.P.I. Protecting country: Indigenous Australians in the defence of the north) Where are you getting your information from? And what is the "agenda" you refer to?

 

[Todjaeger]

Minister Conroy may be correct. They may build the production line and then build and deliver 129 IFVs by 2028. I hope he is but that sounds like a once in a generation industrial achievement. Not any chance that one will appear on a projects of concern list?

Umm... What?! 129 IFV's built in a 24+ month timespan is IMO not a significant achievement, as it works out to a production rate of ~5 IFV's per month or slightly more than one IFV per week.

If one looks at some of the automotive plants in operation around the world, one can easily see facilities that are producing 1k+ automobiles per day. Yes, an AS21 Redback is larger and heavier that passenger/civilian autos so some of what is possible for commercial auto assembly might not be possible, but it also demonstrates what a dedicated facility can potentially do.

 

[Armchair]

Umm... What?! 129 IFV's built in a 24+ month timespan is IMO not a significant achievement, as it works out to a production rate of ~5 IFV's per month or slightly more than one IFV per week.

If one looks at some of the automotive plants in operation around the world, one can easily see facilities that are producing 1k+ automobiles per day. Yes, an AS21 Redback is larger and heavier that passenger/civilian autos so some of what is possible for commercial auto assembly might not be possible, but it also demonstrates what a dedicated facility can potentially do.

Once in a generation industrial achievement for Australia. They selected the vehicle this year and need to build the factory and then the vehicles.
Not impossible but things can go wrong with less complex systems (E.g Hawkei).

local production of Boxer CRV began in March 2023.

Rheinmetall begins local production of Boxer CRVs - Australian Defence Magazine

Rheinmetall today struck the arc on the first weld of materials for the first Australian Boxer Combat Reconnaissance Vehicle entering production at Rheinmetall’s Military Vehicle Centre of Excellence ...

www.australiandefence.com.au

it was selected in 2018 and final deliveries expected in 2027 through a process assessed as largely effective

Defence’s Procurement of Combat Reconnaissance Vehicles (LAND 400 Phase 2) | Australian National Audit Office

www.anao.gov.au

Again I hope Hanwha with IFVs can do even better (less pandemic, some other program differences, but maybe more intense pressure on supply chains for some systems) but pointing to the successful experience of carmakers (in countries that actually have car industries) seems less than compelling.

Accepting you are right and that they can do this with no problems on such a tight schedule then I reckon they are going to get more orders to keep them going. As noted above I expect they will have a domestic customer.

 

[Armchair]

I think you'll find that Norforce is mainly made up of FNQers with Anzac rather than indigenous heritage. When it comes to effectives rather than soldiers just kept on the books for political purposes this is even more apparent. All RFSU's are the same and definitely don't fit the 'agenda' in reality no matter what the PR videos try and pretend.

Do these guys have ANZAC heritage?

https://anzacportal.dva.gov.au/wars-and-missions/ww1/personnel/indigenous-service

 

[old faithful]

I think you'll find that Norforce is mainly made up of FNQers with Anzac rather than indigenous heritage. When it comes to effectives rather than soldiers just kept on the books for political purposes this is even more apparent. All RFSU's are the same and definitely don't fit the 'agenda' in reality no matter what the PR videos try and pretend.

No Norforce units in FNQ.
In FNQ 51 FNQR fills a similar role, in West Australia, it's the Pilbra Regt. In the NT and maybe Kunnanurra /Wyndham it's Norforce.

 

[Todjaeger]

Once in a generation industrial achievement for Australia. They selected the vehicle this year and need to build the factory and then the vehicles.
Not impossible but things can go wrong with less complex systems (E.g Hawkei).

local production of Boxer CRV began in March 2023.

Rheinmetall begins local production of Boxer CRVs - Australian Defence Magazine

Rheinmetall today struck the arc on the first weld of materials for the first Australian Boxer Combat Reconnaissance Vehicle entering production at Rheinmetall’s Military Vehicle Centre of Excellence ...

www.australiandefence.com.au

it was selected in 2018 and final deliveries expected in 2027 through a process assessed as largely effective

Defence’s Procurement of Combat Reconnaissance Vehicles (LAND 400 Phase 2) | Australian National Audit Office

www.anao.gov.au

Again I hope Hanwha with IFVs can do even better (less pandemic, some other program differences, but maybe more intense pressure on supply chains for some systems) but pointing to the successful experience of carmakers (in countries that actually have car industries) seems less than compelling.

Accepting you are right and that they can do this with no problems on such a tight schedule then I reckon they are going to get more orders to keep them going. As noted above I expect they will have a domestic customer.

There are several parts to unpack from the info available on Hanwha's AS-21 Redback build, several of which we really do not know. Firstly, how long would it/will it take Hanwha to get a facility setup? TBH I expect setup of a production facility for vehicles could likely be done in less than a year, assuming there are no particularly difficult to meet building/construction requirements, and that the machinery that will be utilized during production is fairly easy to source. With Hanwha having produced the K21 since 2009 in S. Korea, I would expect that they could source the machinery that the Australian facility would require.

We of course do not know about what the Australian workforce will look like, how many people are required and with what skills, etc. so there is a potential stumbling block to getting production started here.

Similarly, we do not know about what supply chain production requires and how/where parts will be sourced from.

However, once a facility has been completed and parts/components/subcomponents and the associated supply chains established and then a workforce recruited, production (initially likely test units to ensure that production is done to specifications) can commence

Keep in mind that the AS-21 Redback is the Australian version of the S. Korean K21 IFV, which has already been in production for over a decade. What this can mean is that a successful design already exists as a reference, whilst the Hawkei was a new design specifically for an Australian requirement.

Getting back to what the S. Korean article mentioned, once the facility is setup, the workforce selected and trained and the needed supply chains established, a build rate of ~one IFV per week is something that I think Australia could manage, with production to pare for allies.

 

[MARKMILES77]

Contract signed Today, in Geelong, for purchase of AS 21 IFVs from Hanwha Defence.
Interestingly was mentioned at the ceremony a buy of 129 with 8 prototypes from South Korea.
Not sure if 129 TOTAL or 129 from Geelong AND 8 from South Korea for a total of 137?

Contracts signed for Infantry Fighting Vehicles

The Albanese Government has signed contracts with Hanwha Defense Australia to deliver and support 129 locally built Redback infantry fighting vehicles

www.nationaltribune.com.au

 

[the road runner]

NASAMS first live firing on Australian soil at Woomera Test Range... Finally we will have a capability in the mid range

 

[south]

NASAMS first live firing on Australian soil at Woomera Test Range... Finally we will have a capability in the mid range

I really like some of the videos coming out of the Army media team.

NASAMS as a system is a definite boost in capability for Army, Hopefully something similar to the proposed AMRAAM-ER will be acquired to give it additional legs and engagement range.

 

[ADMk2]

I really like some of the videos coming out of the Army media team.

NASAMS as a system is a definite boost in capability for Army, Hopefully something similar to the proposed AMRAAM-ER will be acquired to give it additional legs and engagement range.

Hopefully, though I’ve heard a couple of whispers that NASAMS + AMRAAM-ER is a front runner for Project AIR-6502…

I am assuming those whispers at misplaced, crossing my fingers actually…

 

[OldTex]

Hopefully, though I’ve heard a couple of whispers that NASAMS + AMRAAM-ER is a front runner for Project AIR-6502…

I am assuming those whispers at misplaced, crossing my fingers actually…

Share those concerns as it would be hoped that AIR6052 would deliver something with longer legs and growth potential. But there is a risk that the 'commonality' and 'logistic supportability' cards might be played as well as the 'acquisition cost' card. These might trump the selection of the most suitable system for the stated requirements.

 

[Maranoa]

Hopefully, though I’ve heard a couple of whispers that NASAMS + AMRAAM-ER is a front runner for Project AIR-6502…

I am assuming those whispers at misplaced, crossing my fingers actually…

I thought their was a missile defence requirement in Air 6502?

 

[OldTex]

I thought their was a missile defence requirement in Air 6502?

The original RFP was issued in 2021 for AIR 6502. The description of Phase 1 is as follows: AIR6502 Phase 1 project “will provide a deployable, (GBMRAD) capability designed to deter, deny and/or defeat air and missile threats to the Joint Force and valuable assets.”

Its relationship to NASAMS (LAND 19 Phase 7B) is that the MRGBAD system will sit above the stand-alone LAND 19 Phase 7B short-range (SRGBAD) system currently being developed by Raytheon Australia and Kongsberg Australia. The LAND 19 solution is based on the NASAMS system enhanced with Australian-designed CEA sensors, and Australian-built fire distribution centre (FDC), launchers, and high levels of local integration with Australian Army vehicles. The mobile enhanced NASAMS system will be integrated with the infra-red AIM-9X and radar-guided AMRAAM missiles.

Projects AIR 6500 and AIR 6503 are intended to provide other layers of the IADS, including defences against ballistic missiles and manoeuvring hypersonic missiles. The potential risk is that these projects may be delayed, cancelled or merged to the detriment of AIR 6502.

(Perhaps this thread should be moved to the ADF or RAAF forum rather than Army)

 

[ADMk2]

I thought their was a missile defence requirement in Air 6502?

NASAMS is capable of intercepting missiles… It is doing just that in Ukraine as we speak.

The type of missile though is the issue…

 

[Maranoa]

NASAMS is capable of intercepting missiles… It is doing just that in Ukraine as we speak.

The type of missile though is the issue…

Yes indeed. There is an enormous degree of difficulty difference between the types.