I note the ASPI article.
Can I ask one question, since to argue against heavy armour for the Australian Army seems to be considered trolling?
Do you accept that the question of the utility of heavy armoured vehicles on the future battlefield is a matter of legitimate debate in Defence circles?
If you do, then surely you accept that arguments both for AND against are legitimate points of view.
I read some declassified papers regarding the failed attempt to replace the Carrier Melbourne in the early 80s. What astounded me was not what the RAAF had to say on the matter, or the navy for that matter but the opinion, stated as fact by the assistant chief scientist, It was complete, delusional crap. What was even worse was the papers straddled the Falklands war, where everything this bloke had said about carriers and Sea harriers being useless was disproven and he still stuck to his guns.
Basically the Sea harrier is useless and would be swept from the skies by aircraft such as the F-5 and A-4 prevalent in our region. Sea Kings and their dunking sonars were useless when compared to sonar buoys dropped by Orions and it was quite clear to him that the Barra Sonar buoy had made helicopter sonars totally obsolete.
His recommendation, replace the 10 P-3Bs with an extra 10 P-3Cs because not to do so would seriously compromise Australia's defence as Orions offered more ASW capability than the entire RAN.
This was a defence scientist, a bloke who cut his teeth on guided missiles in the 50s, advising politicians who had no idea and relied on advice from experts. Not even the RAAF was as arrogant and anti FAA as this bloke, he seemed to see the navy as obsolete.
The reason I bring this up is you need to understand even defence "experts" have biases and sometimes the better they are at their specialty the more blinkered they are in regards to things they don't know or understand.
Australia has never deployed massed armor. We have only ever used it as a much smaller component of combined arms operations or not at all. These "experts" make it sound like we trading other critical capabilities to turn the army into one giant armoured division, the truth of the matter is, after hard lessons learnt, we are finally acquiring enough vehicles to equip the force structure we have had in one form or another since the 50s. That is, three, not ten, not thirty, not one hundred, but three, tank squadrons and enough AIFVs to lift three battalions, not six, not nine, three. This is basically the minimum required level to actually deploy a balanced force to contribute to the kind of limited conflict we have been involved in for the last two decades.
Once everything has been delivered do you know how many armoured Brigades we will have, not divisions, brigades? None! We are not acquiring sufficient vehicle to equip a single armoured Brigade. So reality check here, we do not have enough tanks to depoly them the way the Russians have, we only have enough to support our understrength Infantry brigades in limited combined arms operations. Our tanks will not be taken out like the Russian tanks were, because they will be operating in support of the infantry and screened by CAV and aviation, because that is what our force structure is, and that's the amount of equipment we are getting.
I really wish Raven or Takao would drop in, they are far more across all of this than me.