I have never come across Shoebridge directly but have been involved in the remediation of some of his work. I should specify, the extremely expensive, time consuming remediation, that would have been completely unnecessary if those siting behind the big desks and calling the shots had actually enquired as to the risks of the projects with the experts they chose to ignore. When I joined one of the projects he helped stuff, I already knew what the issues would be from actually listening to the people he chose to ignore. Sure enough, one by one, every issue listed came to be, not by magic but rather mechanics, dynamics and chemistry among other things.I've read this forum for a number of years as an interested observer, it's fantastic delving into some of the technical discussions at times and whilst the moderating borders on militant at stages, I guess it somewhat improves the standard of posting for those non-defence professionals for backward and forward tit for tat discussions.
Whilst the moderators and "verified defence professionals" (whatever verification that entails) certainly know their stuff, they throw their weight around on all manner of topics to the point, unless they work in a dozen different roles, through a dozen different industries, they can't possibly be "subject matter experts" in as much as they profess to be. It really borderlines on professional snobbery and arrogance at times and comes across as fairly toxic for an internet forum.
Myself? I work in Major Project Construction Management, I've built a number of defence force bases throughout the country, but probably wouldn't consider myself a "defence industry professional", but I'm certainly more of a subject matter expert on major procurement and construction practices than some on here whom would readily ban me, i.e someone who might have served in the Navy for a number years with a blue badge against their username who thinks they know how to correctly build a $30bn submarine base.....
Back to the point that was made a few points up and to address your post directly:
"Armchair Experts" - The ASPI article was written by Michael Shoebridge. Former Deputy Director of DIO and ASD, he led the tendering process for the Armadales, Minehunters and Hyrographic Ships. He wrote the white paper for the 2013 Australian-US Defence Trade Treaty. He's held senior positions within defence procurement and led oversight committee's for major defence procurement.
Without trying to deflate what are clearly some pretty big ego's on this forum, but he is more qualified than every blue badge on this forum put together on this topic and whilst his opinion is not above critique and challenge, the fact that the moderators have thread banned someone who proposed very similar views and then once quoting (what anyone would certainly consider to be a "subject matter expert") seems to be kicked off the thread because they have an alternate view as some of the moderators..... The value for money for modern armor, based on a current conflict, is very much worthy of discussion, I mean, if not now? When? This is a defence forum and defence experts have raised this very topic.....
Another point of note, the Australian Army and Navy threads seem to be moderated to a very different standard to most of the rest of the forum. Any discussions regarding upgunning Arafura's, long range Bombers etc are met with the ban hammer, yet one look at any of the NZDF threads you are swamped by a treasure trove of posts regarding Fighter Jet procurement, Advanced English Frigates and Destroyers, Long Range Missiles and UAV procurement - all regarding a country that has not, or shown any indication of spending any significant amount of money on Defence procurement in decade(s). Fanatsy Fleets indeed.......
My pretty big ego, as you so aptly put it, pales into insignificance when compared to what you have just exhibited in your post. When I am wrong I admit I am wrong, however I get the distinct impression you don't ever believe you are wrong, otherwise you wouldn't have posted what you just did.
Have you ever heard of lessons learnt? Its actually quite important and if you had read back on these topics, or even better done some case studies, compared and contrasted different approaches etc. you would realise all the major issues with Australian defence procurement have happened before. Have you actually read declassified cabinet papers? they can be a real eye opener, you actually read the advice the government of the day received from the predecessors to Shoebridge and see how wrong they were. I'm not talking about hindsight, I am talking about the experts advising the government, ignoring then current, proven facts and giving bad advice, based on their personal bias.
You may be a project manager, well I and some of the others on here are bandaids, we are the technical experts who are ignored until its broken and then we have to fix it while those responsible slink off to their next over paid appointment. I am certain you have come across people like us before, we are the ones you chose not to hire because our quote is too high and our schedule too long, the ones who warn you of the risks and try to manage expectations, the ones who are honest, even when it is uncomfortable or inconvenient to be. We are the people who fix the things that wouldn't have happened had our mentors been listened to.
We are a diverse group, I alone have worked in multiple industries using transferable skills and knowledge, encountering many along the way who I have learnt much from and admire to this day, and sadly, also others who are poster boys for the Dunning Kruger Effect. I have worked in project management, found it pretty boring and left for a more technical opportunity, I was told I would be good at it, and I was but it gets really frustrating dealing with person after person who big notes themselves, slags on others and then does a worse job at their area of expertise than I, an amateur in the field, could have done myself. I feel most comfortable being the dumbest person in the room and learning from those around me, I am at my least comfortable when surrounded by supposed experts, who don't even comprehend the basics of what they are talking about, but quite easily could have looked less stupid by doing a bit of reading.
I refer to to post 8591 and the example I provided of the advice given to the government by an expert who was completely wrong. Obviously I don't have access to any of the classified work Shoebridge has done but reading his unclassified opinion I do not expect to be impressed. He is supposedly expert in defence procurement, well that didn't go too well, and what does he know about combined arms? Obviously not very much.