Afghanistan War

[STURM]

The idea of a pipeline was pushed in the late 1990’s when the expectation was that the Taliban would bring stability and peace to the country. During that period the Pakistanis were also very keen on securing a land route; supplying stuff from Pakistan to Central Asia and vice versa.

 

[STURM]

UN compound attacked as battle for Afghanistan’s Herat rages

Afghan guard killed in attack amid intense fighting between gov’t forces and Taliban on western city’s outskirts.

www.aljazeera.com

Fighting is ongoing on the outskirts of Herat. Under Ismail Khan the city has traditionally been a fierce centre of resistance to the Taliban. Further south the Taliban is also edging closer and closer to Kandahar (their former spiritual home).

This is a complete reversal of the situation in 1996 when they moved from the south (where they’re from) and took neighbouring provinces and Kabul before moving westwards to cities such as Herat and Mazar. It would seem their strategy now is to attack on a broad front on multiple axes in addition to aiming for border crossing points.

Another difference is that back in 1996 Pakistani advisors played a huge role. At present while support is certainty evident from Pakistan I doubt if Pakistan advisors are present. It’s also worth pointing that despite popular belief; the Taliban hasn’t always been totally compliant with Pakistani wishes; often going off script and doing things contrary to Pakistani “advice” and directives.

 

[OPSSG]

Part 1 of 3: The battle for Afghanistan’s soul — Iranian influence vs the PTM’s counter narrative to the Taliban

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1421754471495856133

1. Afghan 1st Vice President Amrullah Saleh, on Pakistani denial, wrote:

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“Afghanistan is under a full scale invasion of Taliban terrorists who have an organized backing and sponsorship in Pakistan. It has to be tackled. Taliban use the Doha office for deception. They have no intention to engage in meaningful negotiations.​

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For over twenty years Pakistan denied the existence of Quetta Shura or presence of Talib terrorist leaders in its soil. Those familiar with this pattern, Afghan or foreign, know exactly that issuing a statement of denial is just a pre-written paragraph.”​

Further, some in the West and Afghanistan have argued that Biden’s foreign policies will remain incoherent to national interests of the US and its allies until a sanctions regime is enacted against those in Pakistan now supporting its 2021 invasion of Afghanistan. Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistan is the main reason for the armed conflict in Afghanistan."Significant part of Taliban leadership...lives in Pakistan", Tomas Niklasson, Acting Special Envoy of the European Union tells BBC. This is also the main cause of the blow back in Pakistan. Not sure if I agree with imposing a sanctions regime on Pakistan, as that greatly complicates the ground situation.

2. Iran's involvement in the conflict in Afghanistan dates back to the Soviet occupation of 1979-1988, when some two million Afghans fled to Iran and founded at least nine resistance groups in exile. The Iranian government was instrumental in creating and supporting several pro-Iranian Shi'a resistance groups within Afghanistan, including Hizb-i Wahdat, Nasr, and Sepah. During this period, however, Iran's involvement did not extend much beyond providing these groups with political and moral support. Besides diplomacy, in recent days Tehran has been bolstering its military deployments on the Afghan frontier.

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(a) After the death of the Ayatollah Khomeini, Iran sought an influential role in the power vacuum left by the Soviet withdrawal. Beginning in 1989, Iran began to broaden its contacts in Afghanistan and to build relations with parties other than its traditional Afghan Shi'a proxies. The contacts established during this period would eventually form the groundwork for the system of arms transfers and military support in operations.​

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(b) Iranian leaders are keen on protecting (and, by extension, controlling) Shia Muslim communities in Afghanistan, especially now that the Sunni Taliban captured their first two Shia towns in the Bamyan province earlier this month. Although sectarian data is difficult to pin down in Afghanistan, an estimated 15 to 29% of the population is Shia. Many Iranian designed IEDs have been confiscated from the Taliban over the years, and some of these IEDs and Iranian made weapons bear strong lineage to those found among Shia groups in Iraq during their 2005-2011 insurgency (e.g., the explosively formed penetrators that the Taliban call “Dragon”). It seems that Tehran respects the Taliban’s resilience, and notwithstanding their ideological differences, they have a lot in common, including their radical views and hostility toward the United States. This affinity could pave the way toward future strategic cooperation, provided the Taliban is willing to give credible guarantees for safeguarding the interests of Afghan Shia.​

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(c) Cellphone videos recently posted on social media show columns of equipment from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and national armed forces (Artesh) being transported to the border, including main battle tanks, armored personnel carriers, surveillance systems, and support assets. Tehran’s air force has put some of its eastern-based fighter jets on high alert. These military movements on the Afghan border may just be a precautionary defensive measure; alternatively, they could constitute preparations for a cross-border incursion. Serious consideration should also be given to the possibility that Tehran envisions the “Syrianification” or “Iraqification” of Afghanistan. Artesh has held defensive responsibility for the 945-kilometer border with Afghanistan since 2018, I suspect Tehran will be exploring its offensive options there. Any major campaign inside Afghanistan would be spearheaded by better-equipped IRGC units, supported by Qods Force elements already believed to be operating there.​

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1417127260746829828

(d) Tehran appears to be exploring three main options for avoiding dangerous destabilization in Afghanistan and furthering its interests there:​

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(1) covertly or overtly supporting a Taliban takeover while reaching tactical and strategic agreements with the group in order to contain its activities;​

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(2) waging a proxy war against the Taliban; or​

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(3) intervening directly.​

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(d) Capitalizing on its experience in Iraq and Syria, Tehran may use militias to prevent full Taliban control. It already has one effective weapon for this scenario: the seasoned Fatemiyoun Brigade, a militia composed of Afghan fighters who were recruited, trained, and equipped by the Qods Force for fighting in Syria beginning in 2012. Some of Fatemiyoun's senior leadership first gained experience fighting with the IRGC's Abouzar Brigade during the Iran-Iraq War, or with the Mohammad Corps, a now-disbanded jihadist group that battled the Soviets and Taliban in Afghanistan. Other militias could conceivably be formed inside Afghanistan by organizing and training the thousands of locals desperately looking for employment of any kind. Such groups would presumably be placed under the command of Fatemiyoun veterans, Qods Force officers, and former Northern Alliance warlords.​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1422077212585512960

3. The Taliban are really unpopular with the Pashtun city folk in Afghanistan (and the Shia Muslim communities in Afghanistan) — as you can see from the size of this rally in the Makin area of Waziristan.

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(a) The Taliban are being called godless by the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) and even by the Imam of Kaaba. This is not surprising as the Imam of Kaaba had in the past labeled the Afghan war as brother killing (and prayed for peace in Afghanistan). Muslim religious scholars have declared the Afghan war as forbidden under the Islamic law.​

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(b) It is interesting to note that Pakistan’s ISI does not approve of PTM and Ali Wazir is being arrested and prosecuted in the northwestern city of Peshawar on 16 Dec 2020 after a case was lodged against him in the port city of Karachi. He is accused of making anti-state comments during an unsanctioned rally in the city. The movement has campaigned since 2018 for the civil rights of Pakistan’s estimated 35 million ethnic Pashtuns, many of whom live near the border of Afghanistan. International rights groups say Pakistani authorities have banned peaceful rallies organized by the PTM and some of its leading members have been arbitrarily detained and prevented from traveling within the country. Some members have also faced charges of sedition and cyber-crimes.​

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(c) Beyond PTM, an ethnically and religiously disparate group is expected to fight against the Taliban (including the 3 non-Pashtun ethnic groups-Tajiks, Uzbeks and the Hazaras). Pakistan’s ISI has tasked the Taliban with controlling the border crossings to stop the anticipated flow of arms coming through from Iran, Russia, India, and Tajikistan; but this huge Taliban effort can’t stop the delivery of weapons and arms from the U.S. being flown-in by an air bridge, to deliver significant combat service and support logistics to inside Afghanistan. Tajikistan's role is that of a facilitator of military assistance from Russia and Iran. Yet this is no small matter. Prior to Sept 11, the Taliban when it ruled Afghanistan, on multiple occasions, charged the government of Tajikistan with interference in Afghanistan's internal affairs and threatened unspecified retaliation.​

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1421900848939032580

4. The ISI and Pakistan army sought leverage against the hostile neighbor on its eastern border, India, by giving Pakistan "strategic depth." A secure Afghan frontier will permit the concentration of Pakistani forces on the Indian frontier. Pakistani support for Pashtun parties in Afghanistan helped solidify the position of Pashtuns.

 

[STURM]

Pakistan plays a vital role in the larger scheme of things but the key difference is that the Taliban is much stronger than it was years ago and it’s less reliant on Pakistani “volunteers’ and advisors than it previously was. The fact that they are able to maintain an attack on a broad front and on multiple axes is an indication of their new strength.

It would be a mistake to assume the Taliban are the ever willing and obedient underlings of the Pakistanis - both have had major disagreements in the past. As the cliche goes; you can rent he loyalty of a Afghan but can’t buy it (or something along those lines). The Taliban has long been too overly independent for Pakistani liking: despite benefiting from Pakistani largesse.

We also mustn’t discount is the possibility that aid is still reaching the Taliban from rich individuals or charities in the Gulf - nothing new. Something else we mustn’t overlook is that not all the local support from the Taliban is from locals who subscribe to their ideology. Tribe and local connections plays a vital part; as does loathing of the Kabul government: seen as corrupt and inefficient and a tool of foreign powers.

 

[STURM]

The Afghan President has announced a “6 Month Security Plan” in Parliament. Details have yet to be publicly revealed but it’s hoped that it includes some means of winning the support of locals who are currently in the sidelines or who support the Taliban. Meanwhile Russia has conducted border drills with the Uzbeks.

US, UK accuse Taliban of ‘war crimes’ in south Afghan town

The countries say alleged atrocities must be investigated and Taliban fighters be held accountable.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[OPSSG]

Part 2 of 3: The battle for Afghanistan’s soul — Iranian influence vs the PTM’s counter narrative to the Taliban

5. Former US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates wrote in 2014 that President Joe Biden “has been wrong on nearly every major foreign-policy and national-security issue over the past four decades.” The hasty US withdrawal from Afghanistan is set to extend that pattern. Given the rapid advances of the Taliban in June 2021, Biden is now hoping the war in the Afghan trenches against the Taliban (and its supporters in ISI) will soon reach a bloody stalemate by Aug to Sep 2021 (instead of the collapse of Kabul or Kandahar). The Afghan government can keep fighting in this stalemate:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1422309636590419971

(a) if the Americans continue to provide air support to the Afghan National Army. Fighting is raging around three major cities in southern and western Afghanistan as Taliban militants seek to seize them from government forces. Taliban fighters have entered parts of Herat, Lashkar Gah and Kandahar (see the above MAP: Contested Afghanistan - as of July 31st 2021). The Americans have resumed airstrikes in Helmand and elsewhere to the Taliban momentum and prevent them from trying to overrun a major cities to strengthen their negotiating position in Doha. To help the Taliban appreciate the futility of their attempt, the U.S. Air Force has launched more than a dozen strikes in and around Lashkar Gah, and also in Kandahar City, Herat City, and elsewhere. Sources also say, “at least 6 US air strikes carried out by the Americans against Taliban in Lashkar Gah. Dozens of Taliban fighters were killed in the strikes;”​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1422165330118561793

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(b) if Tehran decides in 2022 to wage a proxy war against the Taliban; or intervene directly; keeping in mind that in 1998, the Taliban massacred 8 Qods Force operatives and a reporter at the Iranian consulate in Mazari Sharif, which nearly led Tehran to launch a retaliatory military incursion. According to a plan drawn up by the late Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani in cooperation with Afghanistan’s Northern Alliance, Iranian forces were to capture Herat and draw Taliban resources there, enabling the Alliance to take Kabul and then link up with the Iranians in Herat. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly gave Soleimani a 48 hour window to achieve this goal and quickly withdraw, but the operation was eventually mothballed;​

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(c) if the Afghan government can take action against those who propagandise in favour of the Taliban on a daily basis. Afghan Religious affairs minister, Mohammad Qasim Halimi, said those who are spreading pro-Taliban propaganda and are working in the system should be prevented. However, he asked the National Directorate of Security to avoid arresting religious scholars without consulting with the Ministry of Hajj and Religious Affairs. The Afghan rally in the Makin area of Waziristan is another good example of a Pashtun counter narrative — in1994 Taliban pretended to be an indigenous force born for ending chaos with no interest in power. But now they are exposed as a barbaric foreign proxy sent to create tumult (fassad) for destroying Afghanistan; and​

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(d) if more like 70 year old Ismail Khan (former Mujahideen commander and a former Taliban prisoner), his commanders and his son, are willing to take up arms to fight again (side-by-side with the Afghan National Army), in defending his hometown Herat. Public Uprising Forces like Ismail Khan and his fighters have put up a stiff resistance against the Taliban in strategic locations around the airport and city for days before Afghan National Army reinforcements arrived. Flights out of the airport, which is directly south of Herat, was suspended and the Taliban have been firing rockets at the facility. The government still controls the airport, which is a vital lifeline for Afghan security forces as the Taliban controls all of the districts surrounding the city. With Afghan National Army reinforcements, their armed helicopters are able to conduct air strikes from Herat International Airport.​

6. One of the problems on the battlefield, according to President Ghani, is the delay of payments to security force members. He asked government officials to avoid corruption and don’t make him “ashamed” among Afghanistan’s partners. The fighting in Herat and Bamiyan demonstrates the twin methods used to resist the Taliban. To deal with large forces and the Taliban’s elite fighters, send in Afghan Commandos. To fight smaller groups of insurgents, let the “Public Uprising Forces,” take the lead. The narrative of the Taliban (who refer to themselves as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan or IEA) can be countered, once the ANSF is able to win some battlefield victories. This multi-pronged approach will negate the ability of the ISI of Pakistan to generate propaganda via fear or bribe their way to Taliban victory — by renting a few corrupt Afghan officials.

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(a) Persian rule of Herat lasted until 1746, when the city was incorporated into the state of Afghanistan, therefore, Tehran will not be keen to allow the city to fall to the Taliban. The IRCG may be willing to tolerate a tax on trade between Iran and the city of Herat, or some skirmishes at the outskirts of the city.​

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(b) The Citadel of Herat and the modern city owes its existence to the Hari Rud, the river flowing past the city just a few miles away. The river rises in the mountains of Ghor to the east, turns north along the present border with Iran, and eventually vanishes in the sands of the Karakum desert. Along the way it sustains a narrow but fertile oasis, cultivated continuously since antiquity, and flanked by some of the richest grazing grounds in all of Central Asia. Herat was also a crossroads of commerce with the Persians (as part of the Silk route).​

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(c) During the most recent round of fighting in July 2021, the UN’s main compound in Herat came under attack by rocket-propelled grenades and gunfire, a statement issued by the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) said. UNAMA said no UN personnel were hurt in the incident. The UN has called upon the Taliban to undertake a full investigation and provide answers concerning the attack on the UN’s main compound there. Perpetrators for the attack that killed an Afghan guard need to be held accountable.​

 

[OPSSG]

Part 3 of 3: The battle for Afghanistan’s soul — Iranian influence vs the PTM’s counter narrative to the Taliban

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(d) For a short period, Herat was effectively under siege (as the contested border crossing to Iran was seized by the Taliban). The Khwaja Abdullah Ansari International Airport is the only way secure way in and out of Herat for the UN. With the deployment of Afghan commandos to secure the economically important city of Herat (due to its overland trade links to Iran), the situation appears to be more stable now.​

(e) Bamiyan, home to the Taliban-wrecked Buddhas, might be the start of Afghanistan’s pushback against the insurgents. Districts taken over by Taliban fighters in the neighboring provinces of Ghor, Samangan, Daikundi, and Ghazni have been returned to government control in July 2021, said Bamiyan’s provincial governor, Mohammad Tahir Zohair. Two districts in Bamiyan—Saighan and Kahmard—have also been retaken, he said. Frustrated and feeling vulnerable as the national armed forces appeared to melt away in the heat of the Taliban onslaught, citizens across the country have resorted to self-defense. Seeing the value of the additional firepower, the state secret service, the National Directorate of Security, has funded and armed what are being called “Public Uprising Forces.”​

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(f) Bamiyan was one of the first pilot centres for the Afghan New Beginnings Programme of Disarmament, demobilization and reintegration — as it was one of the early areas liberated from Taliban rule in 2001 — the local people know that if the Taliban come back, they will exact their revenge on them. On 4 July 2004 disarmament of former Taliban began in Bamiyan began. The 2021 “Public Uprising Forces” is the rearming of these now pro-government tribes in the valleys. The ground work for the support seen in the Public Uprising Forces seen in 2021 was laid years ago, due to the hard work of the NZ Provincial Reconstruction Team, who did their accurate needs Afghan analysis and built hospital wings, clinics, bridges, wells and other facilities to help the locals in Bamiyan. The Singapore Army’s engineers were privileged to be invited to contribute and our government provided funds and manpower to supervise the construction. After 6 years of this work by NZ and Singapore, the Malaysian also sent a medical and dental team to these area.​

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(g) The successes of the so called “Public Uprising Forces” in Bamiyan and surrounding areas—coupled with change at the top of the Ministry of Defense with the appointment as minister of Gen. Bismillah Khan Mohammadi (a former Northern Alliance commander with experience fighting the Taliban)—are now being viewed as a possible turnaround point in the war. The Bamiyan approach, given the lack of army presence, relies on militias who work with militarized police to patrol the borders with neighboring provinces — this will avoid the over use of the Afghan National Army Commandos, whose use will now be reserved for larger battles.​

7. Bismillah Khan Mohammadi was appointed as caretaker defence minister replacing Asadullah Khalid, who had recently returned to the country after a prolonged illness while Abdul Sattar Mirzakwal was picked as new interim interior minister replacing Hayatullah Hayat. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani willingness to replace his defence and interior ministers (amid rising casualties among Afghanistan’s security forces), is a good sign. The Taliban will show no will for peace and will not get back to the negotiating table unless the situation changes on the battlefield, President Ashraf Ghani correctly said.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1420956875948969986

8. In other news, award winning Indian journalist Danish Siddiqui was killed in cold blood by the Taliban. When shrapnel hit Siddiqui, he was brought to a local mosque for first aid. As word spread that an injured journalist was in the mosque, Taliban came and captured him alive. He dragged out from the mosque, shot multiple times, then his body was mutilated before the body was returned— him being a Muslim did not matter. Of course some people will still say WAR killed him but this is the level of brutality expected from these godless murderers — in the wake of the American and NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan.

 

[CB90]

(a) The 2014 Afghan presidential election provides a sobering reminder of how difficult it is for meaningful democracy to emerge and develop in a situation such as that faced by Afghanistan, and resulted in a fragmented government leadership structure that fails to lead and seeks to blame their failure on the Taliban. Instead of being honest about reform and change, the corrupt President Hamid Karzai and later President Ashraf Ghani used Pakistan as an outside threat to unite Afghans behind them. They refused to characterize the Taliban as anything but a creation of Islamabad. It is not surprising for an Afghan leader to claim to be fighting a foreign Pakistani invasion — but Pakistan could never fully out-inspire the American occupation narrative of the Taliban.​

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(b) “I like to use a cancer analogy. Petty corruption is like skin cancer; there are ways to deal with it and you’ll probably be just fine. Corruption within the ministries, higher level, is like colon cancer; it’s worse, but if you catch it in time, you’re probably ok. Kleptocracy, however, is like brain cancer; it’s fatal,” Christopher Kolenda, an army colonel who had been deployed to Afghanistan several times, told SIGAR researchers. US officials told interviewers that by allowing corruption to fester, the US and allies helped destroy the popular legitimacy of the wobbly Afghan government.​

This is all true, but one of the ways it was put to me by folks who have spent quite a bit of time there has been that corruption in Afghanistan was so ingrained at the highest levels, it was impossible for the US/NATO to remove.
Civilian officials were open with their corruption (and in some cases, even more serious crimes) because they knew there was nothing ISAF could do about it. Threatening to withhold aid would lead to threats of, well...what's happening now.

I am not going to pretend to be smart enough to say whether Afghan self-governance was doomed from the start...as I'm sure it's possible that earlier in the formation of the national government, and before the corruption fully set in, it was still a realistic goal.

35. The Americans made a choice (not to have a small counter-terrorism force of 1,500 to 2,500 troops). But that choice to pull-out all troops by 11 Sept 2021 has consequences.

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(a) IMO, what is happening to people in Afghanistan under Taliban rule, is terrible — even more districts are going to be subject to Taliban rule as the ANDSF, realigns it’s forces to defend the cities — which to some extent is inevitable. The UN blames most of the 1,600 civilian deaths on the Taliban and other anti-government elements. The fighting has also forced many people to flee their homes - around 300,000 have been displaced since the start of the year. The UNHCR says a new wave of internal displacement across the provinces of Badakhshan, Kunduz, Balkh, Baghlan and Takhar comes as the Taliban has captured large swathes of rural territory.​

(b) George Bush (43rd president) was in office when al-Qaeda operatives hijacked commercial airliners and flew the planes into the World Trade Center towers in New York and the Pentagon military headquarters outside Washington, DC on 11 Sept 2001. The US invaded Afghanistan the following month in pursuit of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, who was being hosted by the Taliban. In the media interview recorded at Bush’s summer home, the former president was asked whether the withdrawal is a mistake. "I think the consequences are going to be unbelievably bad," he told German broadcaster Deutsche Welle.​

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(c) Therefore, I am not sure that we should buy the BS from the US President Biden, when he says that the US can't be in Afghanistan "indefinitely." There are some 28,000 US troops in South Korea three-quarters of a century after the end of the Korean War, because the US has a strategic interest in defending the country against the nuclear armed North Korea.​

I actually don't think Biden had much of a choice.
That is to say, the President always has a choice...but the terms of the troop withdrawal were negotiated in 2020, even if the Taliban's not a recognized national government.
To renege on those terms would also have come with their own problems. As for the US forces in the ROK, while that's true, at this point, it could be argued they are there just as much for US strategic benefit (certainly even more the case earlier in the Cold War), and the ROK is now both capable of its own defense, and able to assist the US in coalitions elsewhere.

Personally, I think the Afghan government always needed a countdown. I don't agree with the current approach of cutting support for the Afghans so quickly (even if they have really had years to prepare). However, the open-ended commitment also appears to have been doomed to fail.

 

[OPSSG]

Part 1 of 5: Hear the Afghan people’s cry and support for Afghan troops to fight against the Taliban

1. On 2 Aug 2021(Mon), Ahmadullah Azadani climbed on the roof of his house in the Western Afghan city of Herat and awaited something that would have been unthinkable in the city even a week earlier. He waited on his roof overlooking the ancient city, until he heard a single voice calling out:

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“Allahu Akbar” (God is greatest), over and over.​

For young people like Azadani, those cries harkened back to stories their parents had told them about the communist rule and subsequent Soviet occupation of the 1980s. Then, as now, people took their roofs in defiance of the brutal Soviet-backed communist rule of their country. At that time, Herat was one of the first cities to see the public rise up against what was seen as un-Islamic rule by millions of Afghans across the country.

2. Azadani, said he had never witnessed anything like it before: “I have never seen our people join in such vocal support of their troops and the people who fight alongside them,” he said, referring to the volunteer militias known as “Public Uprising Forces” that took up arms with the Afghan National Security Forces in their fight to expel the Pakistani sponsored Taliban’s advance towards the city. “Last night’s event resurfaced all those stories for those who were alive during the communists’ time, and they, in turn, reminded the younger generation like me of these kinds of events in the past,” he said. Azadani described the experience as a once in a lifetime moment. “I felt a sense of hope, community and belonging, all at once,” he said.

3. President Ashraf Ghani expressed his support in an address to the media. “Last night, the people of Herat showed exactly who represents the cries of Allahu Akbar.”

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1422620700851019786

(a) Likewise, Amrullah Saleh, the first vice president of Afghanistan, walking with the people in Kabul echos his support, and he also wrote:​

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Herat is calling. Tonight Herat is chanting loud & clear "All Akbar". God is great. God isn't a toy in the hands of the Talib terrorists. Herat is roaring. God isn't a Pakistani product. Tonight Heratis are either in the street or out on the rooftops showing support to ANDSF.​

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Ali A Olomi, an Afghan-American professor of the History of the Middle East and Islam, said the fact that the people chose “Allahu Akbar” as their cry of defiance to the Taliban is especially profound.​

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1422194005962493958

(b) Taliban in Herat were literally using children as human shields to avoid being hit by the Afghan AF airstrikes. The latest incident being reported is from the Kolokohi Mill area of Herat city, where 40-50 Taliban have reportedly surrounded themselves with little children.​

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1421739557498851330

(c) As I see it, in the battle for Herat the Taliban lost the hearts and minds of the city. It’s incredible to think of Ismail Khan’s journey from the 1979 Herat rebellion to fighting the Taliban in 2021. He is going to be immortalised in western Afghanistan for holding the ground, at a very dark time before help arrived. Maj. Gen. Sami Sadat who is leading the battle against the Taliban in Helmand told BBC that the Taliban were being reinforced by fighters from other Islamist groups.​

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Personally, I think the Afghan government always needed a countdown. I don't agree with the current approach of cutting support for the Afghans so quickly (even if they have really had years to prepare). However, the open-ended commitment also appears to have been doomed to fail.

4. I agree. The sons of former resistance fighters (or warlords, depending on your point of view), have started to speak. Ahmad Massoud (31), the son of anti-Islamist Afghan commander Ahmad Shah Massoud, killed by Al-Qaeda days before the September 11 attacks, said he was "really worried" about the future of this country and is sceptical if Doha-based peace talks with the Taliban can work. His father, an ethnic Tajik, led the resistance in Afghanistan against Soviet occupation in the 1980s and then against the Taliban when the Sunni Muslim fundamentalists ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001.

(a) Ahmad Massoud, returned to his home country in 2016 after years in exile first in Iran then the UK, divides his time between the family's ancestral region of the Panjshir valley and Kabul, despite the security risks. For the last two years he has led his own political movement Front for Resistance which garners support from ethnic Tajiks and around his father's former northern strongholds.​

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(b) As an ethnic Tajik, it is not surprising that Ahmad Massoud should say that the Afghans need help from Iran to counter balance the Pakistani supported Taliban. "I welcome any sort of regional power entering the peace process of Afghanistan, because the Afghanistan war has different dimensions and aspects. One aspect is the regional rivalries," he said.​

 

[OPSSG]

Part 2 of 5: Hear the Afghan people’s cry and support for Afghan troops to fight against the Taliban

5. The siege of two northern provinces of Taloqan and Sheberghan has tightened. Some areas in Takhar fell to the Taliban and Sheberghan also had a difficult night. Yar Mohammad Dostum, son of former First Vice President Abdul Rashid Dostum (the commander of Sheberghan Garrison in Jawzjan province) is helping the locals resist by going to the frontline against the Taliban in Sheberghan. “The garrison was formed from the merging of the public order and the special guards unit of the first vice president and Yar Mohammad Khan was appointed to lead it,” said Rahmatullah Turkestan, the police chief of Jawzjan. The sons of the resistance are once again on the frontlines. Both the young and old are in the fight.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1422575425264357378

6. In other news, powerful blasts followed by sporadic gunfire hit Afghanistan’s capital Kabul on 3 Aug 2021 near the city’s heavily fortified “Green Zone”, an area home to government buildings and foreign embassies, officials said. A senior security official said the first blast, which struck just after 8pm local time (15:30 GMT), appeared to have been caused by a car bomb and the target was the acting defence minister’s home and the adjoining residence of a member of parliament (Azim Mohseni's house) in PD-10 of Kabul. All suicide attackers died and over 30 civilians were also killed or wounded by the car bombs.

7. Afghanistan's Acting Defense Minister General Bismillah Mohammadi says he and his family are safe following a 'terrorist attack' on his residence in Kabul. He says some of his security guards have been wounded: TOLOnews

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1422589734224764928

8. In late July 2021, Pakistani National Security Advisor Moeed Yusuf on embarked on a failed visit to the United States to hold talks with American officials with an aim to reset "fragile ties" with the country. A Biden administration official told FT: “There are still a number of world leaders President Biden has not been able to speak with personally yet. He looks forward to speaking with Prime Minister Khan when the time is right.”

(a) To Pakistan, the diplomatic affront was the latest setback in US-Pakistan relations after their cooperation during the war on terrorism following the 9/11 attack on the twin towers by Al Qaeda. Hard not to laugh at Moeed Yusuf, when I read this. America is out of Afghanistan — Biden’s time for nonsensical calls with the PM of Pakistan is not a priority at this time. There will be a time for a call but on Biden’s terms and at a time Biden chooses.​

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(b) The US State Department, however, assured Islamabad that Washington recognises Pakistan’s vital role in restoring peace in Afghanistan and wants the country to play that role. “Pakistan has much to gain and will continue to have a critical role, be well-positioned to have a role in supporting the outcome” in Afghanistan, said US State Department’s spokesman Ned Price.​

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(c) Briefing journalists in Washington, Price said that “not only the United States seeks, but that many of our international partners, many of the countries in the region also seek” this supporting role from Pakistan. “So, we’ll continue to work and to communicate closely with our Pakistani partners on this,” he added.​

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(d) Everyone knows that in geopolitical terms, Islamabad is Beijing’s b!tch. Given that Pakistan hosted OBL and US SEALs had to be sent into Abbottabad to kill him, there is no need to further pretend that the Pakistani government has a constructive role in regional counter-terrorism efforts or peace in Afghanistan going forward — it’s main role is that of a spoiler on the peace process.​

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1422572764423151624

(e) Going forward, more NATO member states are going to act against Pakistan’s interests — this includes arming and supporting the army modernisation efforts in both Afghanistan and India. In 2021, US$70 million in weapons was given by NATO to the Afghanistan. I wish Pakistan good luck with its belt and road developments — especially its new Chinese financed ports that have capacity but little to trans-ship.​

 

[STURM]

I agree Pakistan was and still is the biggest negative with regards to Afghanistan.

In line with its own interests Pakistani has long played a key damaging role in Afghanistan but we have to take note that compared to the past the Taliban is less reliant on Pakistan now and are far from the obedient underlings they are often thought to be. Al large part of what Pakistan does is driven by India and the fact that Pakistan has a large Pashtun population of its own; not to mention parts of the Durand Line which has unresolved overlapping claims. If indeed China steps up its presence: in Affhanistan it might change the way certain things are done by the Pakistanis.

How do Afghanistan forces and Taliban compare?

Analysts and officials say a Taliban victory is far from guaranteed, pointing to the resources of Afghan defence forces.

www.aljazeera.com

This article provides a comparison between the Afghan government forces and the Taliban. Contrary to the view held by many: the article points out that despite their recent successes: total victory by the Taliban is a long way ahead.

The article also points out that in addition to Pakistan (no doubts here); Iran and Russia have reportedly supplied the Taliban. Russia (along with India) supplied the Northern Alliance at a time when the U.S. was unwilling to provide “lethal aid” and late reportedly supplied the Taliban due to fears of IS.

Iran however is a different matter. In 1996 after the massacre of Iranian diplomatic staff at Herat (or was it Mazar?) the Iranians actually came close to invading. Iran also cooperated with the U.S. following 11th September 2001 and supplied various Afghan factions against the Taliban. Why it would still be supplying the Taliban at this juncture is unknown.

 

[ngatimozart]

WRT Iran supplying the Taliban could be as simple as the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Using Iranian mullahs logic, theTaliban Is a far lesser evil than the Great Satan.

 

[STURM]

Possibly but if indeed Iran is supplying the Taliban I suspect it could be to contain IS or some other reason. Iran has long been very concerned about the common border from threats such as drug smuggling and other things. It has also traditionally been very protective of its fellow Shias; the Hazaras and in the past has been known to supply various warlords/groups who are arch enemies of the Taliban.

A complete takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban would not be in Iranian interest. Amongst other things it would lead to refugees.

Afghan/Iranian issues go way back. In the 1800’s when Iran was having border issues with Afghanistan; British troops were landed on Kharg Island as a warning.

 

[OPSSG]

Part 3 of 5: Hear the Afghan people’s cry and support for Afghan troops to fight against the Taliban

9. Major Gen. Sami Sadat, commander of the 215th Maiwand Corps, is leading the fight against the Taliban in Afghanistan's southern province of Helmand. A fierce battle has broken out between the Taliban and government forces in Helmand's capital Lashkar Gah. In a voice message, he urges Lashkar Gah residents in areas (where the Taliban are currently active) to evacuate their houses. The ANDSF is planning large-scale operations to clear the city of Taliban, and the request for evacuation is aimed at avoiding civilian casualties.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1422901039473197056

10. Gunners are an elite bunch, as they need to be educated and to understand the maths required to fire artillery on area targets — snipers kills individuals in line-of-sight — artillery kills platoons and companies over the visual horizon. A few years ago, British, Australian and Singaporean gunners took so much effort to train Afghan artillerymen and their own forward observers in Kabul’s school of artillery — it takes a lot of maths to fire artillery accurately and comms to shift fire — if there are claims of Taliban operating artillery — I am certain it is not the rebels that really operate them. As long as the Afghan government forces can keep the guns supplied, any Taliban attempt to mass in large numbers of 150 or more will result in an artillery or air strike.

11. Many Taliban are illiterate and even their leaders are only moderately literate — these illiterate fighters fighters are obviously trained in their ISI supported sanctuaries in Pakistan. Does the Taliban leadership on its own has the capacity to formulate a public health strategy to manage the Covid-19 pandemic? Of course not.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1422687083857076229

12. With Donald Trump gone, at an international level, the UN, no Western diplomat is on the side of the Taliban. Are the Taliban being helped by a well resourced state intelligence agency on their war strategy? While Pakistan’s supporters are cheering the military advances of the Taliban, the US is concurrently flying in vaccines for the health care providers of Afghanistan. That is the contrast.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1413488872932139008

 

[STURM]

On Ismail Khan; although he was one of the “warlords” who held so much power over ordinary people; Herat under him was know as a progressive city - girls/women were encouraged to go to school/university. Khan also didn’t have the brutal reputation of Dostum. In 1996 Dostum was lucky to get our alive. He has to bribe his own men to let cross into Uzbekistan.

As someone who has been observing events in Afghanistan since the 1980’s: I’ve often wondered how things would have been different had Ahmad Shah Massoud not been killed. For one I’m sure he would have opposed the introduction of large numbers of foreign troops; pointing out that would be counter productive. Way before 11th September 2001 he warned about the dangers of AQ, the Taliban and Pakistan but nobody listened. As mentioned in Steve Coll’s book the Americans weren’t even allowed him with sniper rifles due to some bureaucratic nonsense about assassinations.

The Americans were also paranoid about his ties with Iran; silly as it’s to be expected that Iran would have interests in Afghanistan and that Masoud wasn’t the only one who had ties with Iran. As a ethnic Tajik he actually had deeper ties with Tajikistan; where he owned a house and where the Nortgern Alliance had a presence.

 

[STURM]

“any Taliban attempt to mass in large numbers of 150 or more will result in an artillery or air strike.”

Reminds me of the situation in Jalalabad. For the first time the Mujahideen assembled in large numbers and assaulted a heavily fortified city. They lost large numbers of men to artillery and air power.

 

[OPSSG]

Part 4 of 5: Hear the Afghan people’s cry and support for Afghan troops to fight against the Taliban

“any Taliban attempt to mass in large numbers of 150 or more will result in an artillery or air strike.”

Reminds me of the situation in Jalalabad. For the first time the Mujahideen assembled in large numbers and assaulted a heavily fortified city. They lost large numbers of men to artillery and air power.

13. It’s not called the King of the battlefield for nothing. Invading even a moderate sized small city of 25,000 people is no joke — it takes a lot of C2, armoured engineers and MBTs, to fight in the face of determined resistance.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1422624871436140552

14. Chants of “Allah Akbar” is the rallying cry for national resistance against Taliban in Afghanistan — is significant. Taliban claims it’s waging “jihad” to establish “pure” Islamic system.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1422775467174682624

16. This rallying cry is a powerful rejection of Taliban’s distorted, alien, version of Islam — which cuts of hands for petty crimes, uses children as human shields and kills women, for no reason.

​

(a) The Taliban engage in public hangings, extra-judicial killings, sex slaving of women, revenge killings, extortion, public beatings, silencing the media, and insisting on jihadism.​

​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1423215874937397248

(b) Kang district, is part of Nimruz Province in Afghanistan. It has a population of about 13,514. In Aug 2021, the district police HQ fell to the Taliban, after Matiullah Barakzai, the police chief was killed in a large scale Taliban attack — a number of the ANSF who fought there were taken captive and later executed. Before execution, these security forces (who were taken captive), had their hands were tied, were tortured and their eyes were gouged. I am refusing to re-post the pictures as they are too horrific.​

 

[STURM]

It’s not called the King of the battlefield for nothing. Invading even a moderate sized small city of 25,000 people is no joke — it takes a lot of C2, armoured engineers and MBTs, to fight in the face of determined resistance.

Indeed. Especially when one is massed and is advancing on open country against known avenues of approach against an enemy behind fixes positions with pre registered arty and air support. Scuds were also used by Soviet advisors. Jalalabad - against the advice of Pakistani advisers - was an extremely painful/costly experience the Mujahideen never repeated.

 

[Feanor]

The Taliban have taken responsibility for an attempt to assassinate the Afghan Minister of Defense, claiming that he is responsible for attacks targeting civilians. This claim is rather ironic on the one hand, given the Taliban's tactics, but could also very well be true in the strictest sense. Either way this represents a serious threat to Afghani national leadership, and suggests that the Taliban are far less open to negotiations then some suggest.

Талибан взял на себя ответственность за теракт в Кабуле

Талибан официально взял на себя ответственность за вчерашнюю атаку с подрывом автомобилей в Кабуле, назвав произошедший теракт операцией мучеников. В заявлении группировки указано, что атака является часть. ответа Талибана на нападения и авиаудары военных подчиняющихся кабульской…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

 

[OPSSG]

Part 5 of 5: Hear the Afghan people’s cry and support for Afghan troops to fight against the Taliban

17. Instead, the cry of Herat of "Allah Akbar" at its darkest hour — is heard and repeated across Afghanistan as people in the cities, like Nangarhar, take to the street to support the Afghan army that is fighting the Taliban. In some cases, they are chanting hundreds of metres away from the fighting to tell the Taliban that they are not welcomed and are seen as ungodly. The Pakistani supported Taliban miscalculated the resolve of the people.

Either way this represents a serious threat to Afghani national leadership, and suggests that the Taliban are far less open to negotiations then some suggest.

18. It is possible to argue that some of the more corrupt in the Afghani national leadership are a bigger threat to the effectiveness of the Afghan National Army than the Taliban.

​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1423025479695667200

(a) For Major Gen. Sami Sadat, US air support and air-lift (as his commandos were flown into the fight by American C-130s) is preferred to hoping his national government will maintain their aircraft properly.​

​

(b) The problem is that the ISI is deciding who to kill — their current target is the new minister of defense — which means Gen. Bismillah Khan Mohammadi who replaces Asadullah Khalid is seen as more effective by the ISI (which is why he is on the kill list).​

19. If you ask me, the US State Department under Biden is negotiating to buy time to get the SIVs processed (to avoid an American domestic backlash), as they did not proceed under Trump.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1423027283330142211

20. Both the Taliban and the Afghan governing elite want this fight, at this time. Biden on the other hand doesn’t want the big fight to occur at this time. For the Afghan President, it’s a chance to rally the locals against Pakistan and also shake the American money tree, for just a bit more aid. And given the ground situation, it is badly needed.