Afghanistan War

[Feanor]

Tadjikistan is mobilizing up to 20 000 men as part of an effort to shore up their border, and has requested aid through the CSTO though so far the request seems more of a general call to action then a specific request for troops or resources. It remains to be seen what follows.

Мобилизация в Таджикистане

В свете происходящего в Афганистане, где Талибан взял под контроль уже более 70% афгано-таджикской границы, в Таджикистане объявили мобилизацию. Планируется призвать до 20 000 человек, которых бросят на усиление на границы с Афганистаном. По понятным причинам, верить на слово Талибану, что он…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Таджикистан запросил помощь у ОДКБ из-за ситуации в Афганистане

Таджикистан призвал союзников по ОДКБ помочь республике справиться с вызовами со стороны Афганистана. РИА Новости, 14.07.2021

ria.ru

Personally I don't buy the argument that tribalism is genetic. Tribalism as a socio-political form of organization is part of a certain level of economic and societal development. In the short term it's ingrained in society and can't easily be erased and replaced but on historic timelines it goes away when the economic basis for society's existence rises sufficiently to support a more complex social organization. And the two processes are linked, the increase in economic prosperity and socio-political development of society. And of course time is a component there too, generations have to come and go. Quite often old ideas die not because their carriers are convinced of new ones, but because the carriers themselves die, of old age or otherwise.

 

[ngatimozart]

I was probably wrong in using the word genetic, but it does feel like that because of all that goes with it. You are right that it is a cultural and social behaviour bought about because of sociopolitical and socioeconomic developments as human evolution progressed and societies developed. I would argue that because it is still used in different societies it has no less relevance or value than other forms of society. From my own experience living in both a western society and having the tribal society and its values etc., does give me two differing world views which sometimes are in conflict but at others enhance and reinforce both. It can be interesting.

 

[swerve]

Then in who's interest is the ISI working? The state of Pakistan? Or its own? It appears to be a law unto itself. Secondly what's ISI's endgame apart from the destruction of India? Even that would have to be a suspect endgame for them because if ever achieved it would end the main reason for their existence.

I'm not sure the ISI has an endgame. I suspect it thinks in terms of maintaining itself, which requires it to maintain Pakistan as a state which wants (or is willing to keep paying for) it - & justifies that as acting in Pakistan's best interests.

 

[OPSSG]

Providing Context to News Reports on Taliban Success — Part 3

Then in who's interest is the ISI working?

14. Of all the foreign powers involved in efforts to sustain and manipulate the ongoing fighting, Pakistan and Qatar are distinguished both by the sweep of their objectives and the scale of their military intelligence efforts, which include:

​

(a) soliciting funding for the Taliban and using Al Jazeera to provide propaganda (or news) of Taliban or IS ‘victories’;​

​

(b) Pakistan working with Qatar to bankroll Taliban operations, providing diplomatic support as the Taliban's virtual emissaries abroad, arranging training for Taliban fighters, recruiting skilled and unskilled manpower to serve in Taliban armies, planning and directing offensives. Qatari funding of terror groups abroad is well documented in UK trials; and​

​

(c) providing and facilitating shipments of ammunition and fuel, and on several occasions apparently directly providing combat support.​

15. In the recent past, the Taliban’s strategy was downplayed and dismissed by U.S. military commanders in Afghanistan, who touted population control over territorial control. But the Taliban and its al Qaeda allies slowly but methodically took control of remote districts, using them as bases of operations to project power in neighboring districts as well as recruit, train, and indoctrinate future fighters.

​

(a) The jihadists’ military strategy is complemented by its political strategy. The Taliban’s ultimate objective is to regain control of country. Human Rights Watch sources reported that as many as thirty trucks a day were crossing the Pakistan border; sources inside Afghanistan reported that some of these convoys were carrying artillery shells, tank rounds, and rocket-propelled grenades. Such deliveries are in direct violation of U.N. sanctions. Pakistani landmines have been found in Afghanistan; they include small anti-personnel, anti-vehicle mines and triggers and other explosive materials to build large IEDs that can destroy even well protected MRAPs.​

​

(b) Senior Pakistani military and intelligence officers help plan and execute major military operations, including targeted assassination of Afghan pilots. At least 7 Afghan pilots, have been assassinated off base in recent months, according to two senior Afghan government officials. This series of targeted killings, which haven't been previously reported, illustrate what U.S. and Afghan officials believe is a deliberate Taliban effort to destroy one of Afghanistan's most valuable military assets: its corps of U.S.- and NATO-trained military pilots — Reuters: Special Report-Afghan pilots assassinated by Taliban as U.S. withdraws.​

16. For over 20 years, the Inter-Services Intelligence of Pakistan, contribute to making the Taliban a highly effective military force. Concurrently, in Nov 2016, Pakistan’s southwestern Gwadar seaport (leased to China until 2059) has begun handling transit cargo headed to and from landlocked Afghanistan, marking a significant outcome of Islamabad’s multi-billion-dollar collaboration with China.

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(a) The massive 2,292 acre Gwadar seaport project is hailed as the flagship of Beijing’s trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative, which has brought about US$30 billion to Pakistan in direct investment, soft loans and grants over the past 7 years. Located around 120 km southwest of Turbat, Gwadar Port is an important part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) plan.​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1410637171225251843

​

(b) Pakistani PM Imran Khan, on July 5, 2021, visited Gwadar to launch a number of projects. During his one-day visit, Khan performed a groundbreaking ceremony of Gwadar Free Zone (GFZ) and received a detailed review of the ongoing development work in the province of Balochistan. Balochistan is a resource-rich but least developed province of Pakistan where a movement for freedom has been ongoing. Many Balochs believe that the region was independent before 1947 and was forcibly occupied by Pakistan. Khan also said the people of Balochistan have been neglected for a very long time. He added it was about time that every province was developed.​

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(c) The recent Chinese financial and construction efforts, though, have activated the strategically located Arabian Sea deep-water port of Gwadar, and GFZ offers an alternate overland link. In the past, Kabul relied on Pakistani overland routes and the two main southern seaports of Karachi and Port Qasim for international trade under a bilateral deal with Islamabad, known as the Afghan Transit Trade Agreement (ATTA). The second busiest and largest port in Pakistan, Port Muhammad Bin Qasim, is situated 15 km from the National Highway will lose some business to the GFZ, as the volume of trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan falls due to the intensifying civil war caused by the Taliban.​

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(d) One of the specific projects on the table, according to another source privy to conversations between Beijing and Kabul, is the construction of a China-backed major road between Afghanistan and Pakistan’s northwestern city of Peshawar, which is already linked with the CPEC route. “There is a discussion on a Peshawar-Kabul motorway between the authorities in Kabul and Beijing,” the source told The Daily Beast on condition of anonymity. “Linking Kabul with Peshawar by road means Afghanistan’s formal joining of CPEC.”​

​

(e) Starting in early 2019, there was a sharp deterioration in India’s relations with Pakistan, a hostile neighbor. In Aug 2019, India’s surprise revision of the constitutional status of Jammu and Kashmir, including territories contested by China and Pakistan, exacerbated regional tensions.​

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(f) Some would say that it is silly of the US to continue its military presence in Afghanistan beyond end Aug 2021; and staying would enable ATTA to further fund yet another investment in Pakistani ports — which is part of China’s older string of pearls strategy (that has evolved into the Belt and Road strategy). The key is for the Americans to avoid funding their adversary, the real Axis of evil and the Taliban.​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1413657417347309569

The state of Pakistan? Or its own? It appears to be a law unto itself.

17. The real Axis of evil is found within Qatar and Pakistan. With regards to Afghanistan, the Inter-Services Intelligence of Pakistan has its own secret policy towards Afghanistan that supersedes anything the politicians come up with or agree to. From what I see, Pakistan, as fragile state (25th on the list and more fragile than Venezuela), has to decide:

(a) if a stable Afghanistan (9th on the fragile state index and seen as more unstable than Mali or Iraq) that is growing economically is in its best interest; or​

​

(b) if the Inter-Services Intelligence of Pakistan believes that there are no consequences to screwing with Afghanistan and try to shatter the state into ever smaller fragments.​

 

[OPSSG]

Providing Context to News Reports on Taliban Success — Part 4

18. FDD’s Long War Journal has tracked the Taliban’s attempts to gain control of territory since NATO ended its military mission in Afghanistan and switched to an “advise and assist” role in June 2014.

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(a) The current Taliban and al Qaeda offensive was planned far in advance. The jihadists laid the groundwork for seizing large parts of the country years ago by directly challenging the Afghan government and military in rural districts. The insurgents seized more rural ground after the NATO handed over primary security responsibilities to the Afghan government.​

​

(b) Districts have been taken and retaken (by both sides), only to be lost shortly thereafter, decreasing the security situation. But as this DW news report states, the Taliban are too thinly stretched to hold most of the gains they made. The situation is dire but the Taliban don’t have the manpower to hold ground, except in the rural areas.

​

(c) The Taliban’s vision for a post-conflict Afghanistan, as explained by the group’s spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid (ZM):​

​

Foreign Policy: What is the Taliban’s relationship with Pakistan?​

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ZM: We want to have a productive relationship with all countries, including regional countries. Pakistan is a neighboring country, and around 3 million Afghan refugees live there. Pakistan shares mutual cultural, historical, and religious ties. We have a long border with Pakistan. We also want to have good relations with Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, China, and Iran. The way the government has disseminated propaganda for the past 20 years is to say that we are closely tied with [the Pakistani intelligence agency] ISI, and that we take orders from the ISI. None of this is true. We don’t have a special relationship with Pakistan that has been closely identified. Our leadership is in our own hands. Our leadership is in Afghanistan, not in Quetta.​

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Foreign Policy: Where is the supreme leader of the Taliban, Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada? He has not been seen or heard in public for some time. Is he alive?​

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ZM: Due to the security situation, we cannot say where our leader is, and we cannot bring him online to talk to [the] media or journalists because of the security problem. But I can confirm our emir is alive and is inside the country. Five days ago, I talked to him, took advice and orders from him. Regularly, our commanders and people around the country report to him. He is alive and leading the operations of the Taliban in the country.​

19. According to some who buy the BS, the Biden administration has studied all the scenarios, and Biden himself has made it clear "it's highly unlikely" there will be a unified government, and not much the US could do, or should do, if Kabul collapses. That's up to Afghans and the countries next door, like Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Iran and India as regional stakeholders to contribute to stabilising the regime in Kabul; if they fail to do so they will have to content themselves with a neighbour ruled by warlords and the Taliban (who are hostile to Iran). Some interesting regional diplomacy on Afghanistan is playing out this week. India’s Jaishankar was in Iran, on the same day that Tehran hosted meetings with the Taliban. Jaishankar will be in Moscow for the next few days, with Afghanistan to be high on the agenda. As President Bidden said:

“After 20 years — a trillion dollars spent training and equipping hundreds of thousands of Afghan National Security and Defense Forces, 2,448 Americans killed, 20,722 more wounded, and untold thousands coming home with unseen trauma to their mental health — I will not send another generation of Americans to war in Afghanistan with no reasonable expectation of achieving a different outcome.​

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The United States cannot afford to remain tethered to policies creating a response to a world as it was 20 years ago. We need to meet the threats where they are today.​

​

Today, the terrorist threat has metastasized beyond Afghanistan. So, we are repositioning our resources and adapting our counterterrorism posture to meet the threats where they are now significantly higher: in South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.”​

20. As at May 2021, the Afghan security forces are “better trained, better equipped" than the Taliban and they have been promised US$3 billion in funding for 2022. For Biden, it is up the Afghans to win their own civil war.

Secondly what's ISI's endgame apart from the destruction of India?

21. In this respect, the culture within the Inter-Services Intelligence of Pakistan is very much like the North Korean Kim run dictatorship, who believe they are still at war (with India in the case of Pakistan). This war for them is uninterrupted since the Bangladesh Liberation War lasting from 26 Mar to 16 Dec 1971. As long as they see themselves as being at war, any domestic initiative at peace with India is seen as a betrayal of Pakistani national interest. Even logical people in Pakistan question the role of their government in exporting terror to Afghanistan.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1414662501183234054

 

[OPSSG]

Providing Context to News Reports on Taliban Success — Part 5

Even that would have to be a suspect endgame for them because if ever achieved it would end the main reason for their existence.

I'm not sure the ISI has an endgame. I suspect it thinks in terms of maintaining itself, which requires it to maintain Pakistan as a state which wants (or is willing to keep paying for) it - & justifies that as acting in Pakistan's best interests.

22. Their job is destruction. Even if they can fragment India or Afghanistan into multiple smaller proto-states, their role will never end in the contest for influence in these smaller fragments.

• In recent weeks, the Taliban have gained several strategic districts, particularly along the borders with Iran, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.
• The Taliban control more than one-third of Afghanistan’s 421 districts and district centres.
• Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told AFP their fighters had captured the border town of Islam Qala on the Iranian frontier and the Torghundi crossing with Turkmenistan.
• With the Taliban having routed much of northern Afghanistan in recent weeks, the government holds little more than a constellation of provincial capitals that must be largely reinforced and resupplied by air.
• The Kabul government has repeatedly dismissed the Taliban's gains as having little strategic value, but the seizure of multiple border crossings along with mineral-rich areas will likely fill the group's coffers with several sources of new revenue.
• US forces vacated Bagram Airfield — the US epicenter of the conflict to oust the Taliban and hunt down the Al-Qaeda perpetrators of the 2001 terrorist attacks that triggered the war — under the cover of darkness.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1415038480938307588

23. Worsening security situation has forced 270,000 people from their homes this year, says the United Nations — Veterans in NATO who have served and lost friends and troops serving in Afghanistan feel pained by the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan. In 2004 —2011, Canadian Armed Forces members had sustained significant casualties from IEDs and RPGs in Afghanistan. These threats saw Canadian LAV IIIs destroyed or badly damaged by carefully timed ambushes from Taliban insurgents.

24. As a major stakeholder in the peace and stability of Afghanistan, India is keeping a watchful eye. New Delhi, which already invested approximately US$3 billion in aid and reconstruction activities in the the war-torn country, has been supporting a national peace and reconciliation process which is Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled.

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(a) India had temporarily shut down both two consulates in Herat and Jalalabad, Afghanistan in April 2020, ostensibly due to the Covid-19 pandemic. While Covid was one of the main reasons behind the decision to close down the consulate in Herat, a deteriorating security situation and a significant increase in violence in the past year were also key reasons why the Jalalabad consulate was closed, and the plans to reopen it have been left pending.​

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(b) The Indian foreign ministry has said in a statement. "The Consulate General of India in Kandahar has not been closed. However, due to the intense fighting near Kandahar city, India-based personnel have been brought back for the time being," MEA spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said in a statement.​

​

25. Turkey is looking to its close ties with Pakistan and Qatar to use their influence over the Taliban to ease their opposition to the proposed Turkish role in offering to provide security to Kabul's international airport.

(a) Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu says the operation and security of Afghanistan's Kabul airport are vital not only to the country but also to the survival of all diplomatic missions, including Turkey’s. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan — speaking at the NATO summit — said Hungarian and Pakistani forces would assist Turkish forces in providing security to the Kabul airport — but obstacles still remain to be cleared.​

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(b) The Taliban are furious with the Turkish proposal to stationed its troops at Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul to provide security along major transport routes and at the airport, which is the main gateway to the capital Kabul. The group has warned Turkey that such plan is ill-advised, a violation of Afghan sovereignty and territorial integrity and against the country’s national interests.​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1414740183803731970

26. This Washington Post article makes several important points but fails to mention Pakistan even once.

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(a) American troops are there for 20 years. Do the press not know about Pakistan’s role in the civil war in Afghanistan? In Oct 2006, Gen. Musharraf of Pakistan even admitted that "retired" Inter-Services Intelligence officers might be involved in aiding the Taliban, the closest he has come to admitting the agency's role.​

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(b) As reported by Ahmed Rashid in 2006, “many madrassas listed are run by the Jamiat-e-Ullema Islam, a political party that governs Balochistan and the North West Frontier Province, in Pakistan. The party helped spawn the Taliban in 1994.” Ahmed Rashid in his report quoted the former Afghan defense minister, Gen. Rahim Wardak, who said "Taliban decision-making and its logistics are all inside Pakistan". A post-battle intelligence report compiled by Nato and Afghan forces involved in the 2006 Operation Medusa demonstrates the logistical capability of the Taliban.​

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(c) During the 2006 battle led by Canadian troops and tanks, the Taliban fired “an estimated 400,000 rounds of ammunition, 2,000 rocket-propelled grenades and 1,000 mortar shells, at NATO troops” in Panjwai district, Afghanistan, which slowly arrived in Panjwai from Quetta over the spring months. Also an assortment of Pakistani terrorist groups—including TTP, LeT, & JeM—are already in Afghanistan fighting alongside the Taliban in a clear violation of the Feb 2020 Doha accord. Hopefully, parts 2 to 6 of my posts in this thread also help remedy the lack of coverage.​

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(c) Not only does the American news article illustrate the debilitating ignorance of many mainstream commentators (that are sounding off on the conflict in Afghanistan), especially those declaring Afghanistan 'lost' — the fact that it’s small minded readership can accept such a one sided presentation of facts on the ground (when it’s obvious that the Inter-Services Intelligence of Pakistan is actively supporting one side in a civil war by covert and overt operations in Afghanistan) — shows me that the American general public, as represented by the Washington Post’s readership, continues to be proud of their wilful ignorance of the surrounding regions where a generation of American troops have fought in and died for.​

 

[SolarWind]

President Biden said that it's up to the Afghan people to determine Afghanistan's future, which is the way it should be. If the US can reach a satisfactory agreement with the Taliban, why should it continue to fight for Afghanistan, whose people mostly wanted "the foreigners" to leave anyway? Why would the US have to be responsible for what happens in Afghanistan? It should not be. The coalition financed the government of Afghanistan, armed and trained their military for 20 years, and I would argue it did not even have to do that in the first place.

 

[Feanor]

Some footage of US equipment left behind at Bagram. I can't help but wonder if it would have made more sense to do an organized handover of the equipment and vehicles to the Afghanis. This withdrawal overall doesn't look good, at least to me. Does anyone have any thoughts? Is there something I'm missing?

Баграмские залежи

Американская военная техника брошенная на авиабазе Баграм в Афганистане. Будущие трофеи Талибана. Плюс еще живописные фотографии свалки брошенного американского имущества в Баграме. Стоит отметить, что когда афганские военные начали занимать авиабазу Баграм, то выяснили, что американцы перед уходом…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

 

[SolarWind]

The Afghan Army is reportedly a number of times larger than the Taliban, better armed, and well trained. They should be more than capable of standing up to the Taliban. Either way, it is up to them now, as it should be. And they get the first dibs on the left-over equipment. And I can't help but wonder whether and how the pandemic may impact the situation.

 

[STURM]

The Afghan Army is reportedly a number of times larger than the Taliban, better armed, and well trained. They should be more than capable of standing up to the Taliban.

Yes but the Taliban in many areas they operate are seen as “local” in a way the ANA isn’t. For many Afghans the ANA is still viewed with distrust and are seen as serving the interests of the politicians in Kabul rather than ordinary Afghans.

On paper the ANA is more than capable of holding back the Talibs. On paper the Iraqi army was also seen as capable of dealing with any internal threat likely to faced; like the ANA the Iraqi army was build and mentored by the Americans; yet like the ANA which hasn’t done well; the Iraqi army largely broke apart when IS when on the offensive and captured a huge part of the country. It took Iraqi paramilitary/militia units and Iranian help to stem IS.

I see parallels here in that both the ANA and the Iraqi army were creations of the Americans and benefited from American largesse (in line with American interests); yet both didn’t produce the expected results. Granted; a large part was due to socio political issues inherent with both countries but also I would argue due to short sighted highly flawed policies put in place by the Americans. It’s also worth noting that despite all the bad press and cliches about the ANA; it does have its share of well trained, motivated and competent units; unfortunately not enough.

 

[SolarWind]

Ultimately, Afghanistan is less of a mess today than it was 20 years ago. The Americans and Allies had good intentions and did what they believed was right and more than they had to.

I see Kabul as a city-state with varying degrees of influence on other areas of the country. This goes back to an earlier discussion in this thread about tribal mentality. Unfortunately, the socio-economic reality that is responsible for this situation is unlikely to be changed by any group of foreigners in any reasonable time frame and resource allocation.

 

[STURM]

Some footage of US equipment left behind at Bagram. I can't help but wonder if it would have made more sense to do an organized handover of the equipment and vehicles

My guess is as good as yours. It would have been pretty embarrassing and perhaps reflective of the overall failure if the Taliban were seen posing with stuff hastily left behind by the Americans.

In “Desert Warrior” Prince Khalid wrote of large amounts of ordnance abandoned by the Americans in the desert following the end o hostilities with Iraq. They should have been handed over to the Saudis or blown rathe just being abandoned without informing anyone.

 

[STURM]

Ultimately, Afghanistan is less of a mess today than it was 20 years ago.

For the moment; yes but let see how things eventually pan out. In an ideal world the Talibs will become part of the process and armed resistance will cease; the various ethnic groups all coexisting peacefully and in harmony and no outside power will meddle in the country.

I see Kabul as a city-state with varying degrees of influence on other areas of the country.

This will probably always be the case due to geography, history, politics, ethnicity and economics. People down south will be closely integrated with the Pakistani economy and will feel more comfortable with Quetta or Peshawar rather than Kabul a much more overall progressive place; people in Kabul will also have their own perspectives on the various provinces; people in Mazar will consider Kandahar to be on the dark sige of the moon, etc.

The Americans and Allies had good intentions and did what they believed was right and more than they had to.

Nobody’s disputing that the Americans had good intentions but the way they left Iraq and Afghanistan is also telling.

I’m not so sure about “the more than they had to” part. Firstly it was in their own interests to get the country back in its feet again. Secondly; as the occupying powers (Afghanistan was invaded or liberated) it was their responsibility to get the country back in its feet again; which called for a total revamp of the country's economy, judiciary, education system, military, law enforcement, etc - a long term process of involving huge commitment and political will.

is unlikely to be changed by any group of foreigners in any reasonable time frame and resource allocation.

Depends on what those foreigners wanted to achieve and how well thought out and holistic their plans and policies were for the long term. Unfortunately a huge part of the present cock up (with adverse consequences for ordinary Afghans) was due to ill thought and highly flawed policies in the 2001-2003 period on the part of the Americans.

 

[Feanor]

“Desert Warrior” Prince Khalid

Sorry for the off-topic but any good as a read?

 

[STURM]

An interesting read and a fairly good account of the Gulf War from a Saudi perspective. The author talks about his career and the part he played in the war. Interestingly; he mentions how the Americans discovered the Saudis were buying Chinese IRBMs : a satellite watching a Chinese IRBM base discovered groups of bearded men (Saudis undergoing training) at the base.

 

[t68]

Some footage of US equipment left behind at Bagram. I can't help but wonder if it would have made more sense to do an organized handover of the equipment and vehicles to the Afghanis. This withdrawal overall doesn't look good, at least to me. Does anyone have any thoughts? Is there something I'm missing?

Баграмские залежи

Американская военная техника брошенная на авиабазе Баграм в Афганистане. Будущие трофеи Талибана. Плюс еще живописные фотографии свалки брошенного американского имущества в Баграме. Стоит отметить, что когда афганские военные начали занимать авиабазу Баграм, то выяснили, что американцы перед уходом…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Geez lot of equipment, but i can imagine the cost of bring it home would be enormous

But really an American flag found in the rubbish dump, cant really imagine them doing that for a military base

 

[John Fedup]

Can’t help but wonder how Afghanistan would have fared if the US didn’t get side tracked in Iraq. Certainly worked for the Iranians though with Saddam gone.

 

[STURM]

If the U.S. had not got distracted with Iraq; things would probably have gone much better in Afghanistan. Troop levels wouldn’t have gone down and more importantly the various players which were at odds with each other would have been able to focus on rebuilding the country”s institutions; together with its economy. Not to mention the fact that during that period the Taliban had mostly fled to Pakistan and had a very weak and ineffectual presence in Afghanistan.

“Farewell To Kabul” (Lamb) does a very good job explaining how things went do terribly wrong.

The Iranians were eternally grateful for the U.S. for overthrowing Saddam (their arch enemy) and creating the conditions which led to the Iraqi Shias gaining political dominance in Iraq.

 

[OPSSG]

Providing Context to News Reports on Taliban Success — Part 6

27. The Taliban’s supreme leader Haibatullah Akhunzada has said he “strenuously favours” a political settlement to the conflict in Afghanistan even as the group launched a sweeping offensive across the nation.

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(a) Unreliable Indian sources estimate that more than 10,000 Pakistanis have entered the war zone in Afghanistan to openly support the Taliban's offensive against the Ashraf Ghani-led Afghanistan government. Pakistan's envisioned pivot to geo-economics continues to be a pipe dream due to their army’s addiction to sponsoring terror groups in Afghanistan and India.​

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(b) For decades, Pakistani madrassas have served as incubators for militancy, indoctrinating tens of thousands of Afghan refugees who have few other options for education than the fire-breathing lectures from hardline clerics. Rather than crack down on the institutions, successive governments in Islamabad — who rely on the support of Islamist parties in coalition governments — have largely given the madrassas a free hand. Pakistan has a long, complicated history with the Taliban. Since fleeing the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, the group's leaders have been largely based in Pakistan, where they have been allowed to regroup, recruit and manage the insurgency from the safety of Pakistani cities.​

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(c) Tensions are rapidly rising with Kabul, and ties with key ally Beijing are showing some strain due to attacks on Chinese citizens. Chinese-Pakistani interests are strategic in nature and it is not an emotional bond that is easily hurt by an unfortunate act of terror. While there is a mutuality of purpose, the lack of security will hinder any development project in a remote area in Pakistan. The suspected suicide attack in July 2021 — with the largest loss of life of Chinese citizens in Pakistan in recent years — targeted a two-bus convoy transporting Chinese and Pakistani workers to the China-funded Dasu hydropower project that is under construction in the northwestern Kohistan region. The suicide bomber tried to ram his explosive-laden car into the first bus, but the ensuing blast did not go off with full intensity due to technical glitches, shattering windows but causing no harm to the passengers. The explosion prompted the driver of the second bus to swerve to avoid a collision, plunging the bus into a ravine. That resulted in all the deaths and injuries, sources said.​

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"China is shocked by and condemns the bomb attack in Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province which caused Chinese casualties, mourns for the Chinese and Pakistani personnel killed in the attack, and expresses sympathy to their families and the injured. Pakistani security forces have taken measures to control the situation, properly transfer and treat the wounded. China has asked the Pakistani side to thoroughly get to the bottom of this as soon as possible, arrest the perpetrators, severely punish them and earnestly protect the safety of Chinese personnel, institutions and projects in Pakistan," Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told reporters in Beijing just hours after the attack.​

​

(d) Iran’s approval for India to develop part of Chabahar Port is of geopolitical significance. Chabahar is located in Iran gave Indian trade a strategic port from which it could access the countries of Central Asia, bypassed Pakistan and, simultaneously, reduced landlocked Afghanistan’s dependence on Pakistani ports for its exports. That aside, Chabahar Port is located less than 100 miles from Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, which is a key component of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Those factors have led some observers to view Chabahar as India’s answer to Gwadar. Most importantly, the port at Chabahar gives India a way to bypass Pakistan, which has refused to give India access to its overland routes to Afghanistan and the Central Asian Republics. Even as Pakistan inks new connectivity agreements in Central Asia, Islamabad is facing multiple major diplomatic issues.​

28. As I said earlier, Pakistan is technically run by an elected government. But this government cannot do anything the Pakistani military or Beijing disagrees with. In other news of diplomatic moves:

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(a) Afghanistan has withdrawn its ambassador and diplomats from Pakistan's capital following the kidnapping of the ambassador's daughter, the Afghan foreign ministry said on 18 July 2021. A hospital medical report, seen by the Associated Press, said Silsila Alikhil, suffered blows to her head, had rope marks on her wrists and legs, and was badly beaten for 5 hours. "The Afghan government recalled the ambassador and senior diplomats to Kabul until complete elimination of the security threats including the arrest and punishment of the perpetrators," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1416787458142969865

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(b) 15 diplomatic missions and the NATO representative in Kabul have joined hands to urge the Taliban to halt military offensives across Afghanistan, just hours after a peace meeting in Doha failed to agree on a ceasefire. The joint statement was supported by Australia, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, the European Union delegation, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Britain and the United States and NATO’s senior civilian representative. “The Taliban’s offensive is in direct contradiction to their claim to support a negotiated settlement,” said the joint statement.​

 

[STURM]

The Taliban’s supreme leader Haibatullah Akhunzada has said he “strenuously favours” a political settlement to the conflicts

Sure he does. Reminds me of the North Vietnamese negotiators at the Paris peace talks. They made promises they had no intention of keeping. Even as the talks were ongoing infiltration via the Ho Chi Ming Trail was in full swing to gain the ultimate objective; the unification of the Aijyh with the North. The Taliban know they have the military advantage and will push it as far as it can go.

About 20,000 Afghans who worked as interpreters for the United States during its war in Afghanistan and now fear retribution s

If we take into account all the other Afghans who were associated with foreign troops in some way of the other (drivers, cleaners, etc) and who would be in on the receiving end of Taliban justice; the number would be much higher. Let’s hope things eventually work out for them with the Americans helping as many as possible.

Residents of Balkh were taken aback when they received leaflets from the Taliban ordering them to follow severe regulations identical to those enforced on Afghans

Old habits die hard; especially when one is brought up to believe that those habits are sacrosanct; being the word of god. My hunch is that for the moment at least; a lot of it does not come from the leadership per see but is the work of local commanders.

Back in the mid 2000’s as they were regaining ground the Taliban tried to reinvent itself. To be less extreme in the knowledge that it couldn’t go back.entirely to its pre 11th September 2001 days if it wanted local support. Perhaps things are different now in that they couldn’t care less as they sense victory.