John Fedup
The Bunker Group
We should take up a collection to cover the Asian tee-shirt vendor tariffs, a worthwhile investment IMHO!
Royal Australian Navy Discussions and Updates 2.0
- Thread starter OPSSG
- Start date
The biggest threat to Australia isn't invasion, it is our economy.
Our biggest trading partners, the ones we actually have trade surpluses with, are China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Any war involving China, whether we are on the winning side or not, will be economically disasterous for Australia. The US will be fine, they can provide most of what they need by themselves and are bordered by "friendly" nations such as Canada and Mexico. Europe is also its own ecosystem. Even China could probably rely on Russia to gain access to the resources it would need to keep its wartime economy afloat. As for Australia, we are probably screwed. Protecting our SLOCs may be pointless if our trading partners don't exist. The Australian economy would be lucky to survive more than a year or two.
To make things worse even if Australia stood on the sidelines our economy would still be screwed.
The best thing we can do is create alliances in the hope that this will be enough to deter Chinese adventurism.
This should be enough to keep strategic planners laying awake at night.
Our biggest trading partners, the ones we actually have trade surpluses with, are China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Any war involving China, whether we are on the winning side or not, will be economically disasterous for Australia. The US will be fine, they can provide most of what they need by themselves and are bordered by "friendly" nations such as Canada and Mexico. Europe is also its own ecosystem. Even China could probably rely on Russia to gain access to the resources it would need to keep its wartime economy afloat. As for Australia, we are probably screwed. Protecting our SLOCs may be pointless if our trading partners don't exist. The Australian economy would be lucky to survive more than a year or two.
To make things worse even if Australia stood on the sidelines our economy would still be screwed.
The best thing we can do is create alliances in the hope that this will be enough to deter Chinese adventurism.
This should be enough to keep strategic planners laying awake at night.
Covid clearly demonstrated the need for the Australian economy to become far more resilient to external shocks and there was much talk from all sides of politics that the country needed to greatly reduce reliance on overseas suppliers. Unfortunately, little seems to have happened since then. As an example, Blind Freddie should be able to understand that counting fuel stocks stored overseas as part of the country's strategic fuel reserve is idiotic.
Perhaps I am a dinosaur, but I grew up at a time when Australia was working hard to develop manufacturing industries rather than just farming and mining. In my lifetime I have seen a car and parts manufacturing industry grow, prosper, and then die, oil refineries built and shut down and garment production almost entirely moved offshore to 'more efficient' factories. Mining continues to thrive, and our hospitality industry has grown but I worry that our young people are looking at a future where they will be at the mercy of rich tourists. Even our farming industry seems to be in decline.
I really hope that continuous naval shipbuilding becomes an ongoing reality and that Australia becomes far more self-sufficient in producing the weapons, missiles and ammunition that would be needed if the country were to be involved in an existential conflict.
Tas
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I have a background in tourism, and it's very vulnerable.
I was working on the Cairns marlin fleet when 911 struck, and 90% of our seasons bookings were cancelled on the spot. That was devastating for the industry that year, same as for the dive boats.
Worse still was covid. But effected even more than just tourism of course.
We really need to be self reliant as much as possible. I heard a really good podcast on conversations by Richard Fidler on ABC radio a few years back, was about a small business that grew then died, as a result of free trade agreements. Guy started a business making gears for hills hoist clothes lines, then went on to victor lawn mower parts, then to GMH and Ford parts, electric motors for GE and Sunbeam, grew into one of Australia's biggest apprentice employer, from just about every trade, to closing down completely.
If we can get oil and petroleum from other countries I think we will be ok without Chinese imports. On the other hand about 35% of government revenues come from taxes related to Chinese trade.…so a few programs would be under risk and I’d imagine our debt would explode.
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Mate we can live without most of the stuff on Temu. Over git enough rubber dog shit to last me years. Certainly we may have a TV and appliance shortage but realistically we can live without most of them.
Manufacturing in Australia is continuing to decline. It now only represents about 5% of our GDP. That's down from 28% in the 1960s.
I am not sure how we can turn this around. We have lost that skilled work force, our labour costs are high, we have a limited domestic market and subsequently a lack of investors willing to back local manufacturing.
iambuzzard
Well-Known Member
Have you seen what's on TV lately? I'd rather the discussions on this forum. More informative.
Agree with you there. However, the point has been missed. We use Chinese stuff everywhere. Phones, computer components, cables, machinery, spare parts, medical equipment, medical supplies, batteries, solar panels, wind power tech, clothes, home appliances the list goes on and on.
Of these imports, I do wonder how many of the smart things/internet connected devices have back door kill switches built in. Such that if connected to the internet, can be bricked or disabled by China as they please. Shutting down home appliances, businesses, critical infrastructure or who knows what else.
How long would the public be happy to do without these things that can’t be imported or fixed anymore or those that have been disabled or shutdown via cyber means, many critical or important to modern life, before they've had enough and influence the national decisions via protest or elections/voting?
The contribution by navy in these scenarios would be expertise, knowledge and assistance in the Cyber domain.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Sadly we don't really know. Iran found out several years wrt to their uranium centrifuges
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
This might sound a bit harsh, but having formerly spent a decade working in IT/networking, I have to ask, "so what?"
[RANT=on]
I will admit though I am one of those people who firmly believe there are no such things as "smart" devices, and TBH smartphones do not exist. What do exist however are idiot boxes, which people who are even more idiotic call smartphones. Sorry, but in another hat I have worn, I have had to deal with and treat too many people who got so engrossed in their phones that they ended up hurting themselves and/or others by being distracted, having no SA and then doing something stupid. It does not take very many people to fall or seriously twist/sprain their ankle because they so glued to a tiny little screen and not watching where they are walking, to the point that they step off a sidewalk into a motorway or sometimes even a ditch, hole, or fountain, before one starts having such opinions.
With respect to these other 'smart' devices, if someone loses use of such a device because it gets bricked, then IMO they really deserve it. Having devices all get designed to be networked together is both asking for trouble and violating the KISS principle of engineering. How much actual value is there in being able to remotely connect via one's phone when at work/traveling to their refrigerator, stovetop, or coffee maker?
[/RANT]
Now back to our regular discussion.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
O/T Being able to remotely control heating/cooling and having access to security cameras for a vacation residence does have value IMO, the other stuff, not so much. Agree about phone users and their lack of SA, road kill waiting to happen!
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
Yes, still OT but I digress. Yes, def use for doorbell and/or home security camera systems which are networked and remotely accessible. Not sold on the idea of remote access/control for HVAC systems. I have had the misfortune of working somewhere once where the HVAC was remotely controlled from off site, even though we had people in the building. This became a problem because the offsite location was not staffed several times over weekends IIRC and the HVAC got remotely shut off despite the temp conditions on site being either quite hot or too cold.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
O/T wrt to HVAC, for me it’s the heating side during winter. The cottage is electrically heated, soon to be replaced finally by NG!). There is a huge cost for electricity in rural cottage country so it is useful to remotely jack the heat up after a a few weeks absence during snowmobile season to warm things up…..although when my friends and I were younger, several 2 fours of beer and a couple of bottles of Crown Royal rye worked.