Royal Australian Navy Discussions and Updates 2.0

[SammyC]

I don’t think that is how a modern blue water navy with a massive para military auxiliary fleet would go about a blockade of Australia though. They would simply declare a blockade and then threaten and board unescorted merchant vessels that chose to defy (I am not suggesting this is a likely event or without risk for China). By analogy: When the RAN participates in blockades it doesn’t lay mines for merchant vessels.

True. The deeper we look into a scenario, the more complex the outcomes can be.

I would view China could enact what you have said with relative ease within the SE China Sea region, and supply lanes in this area would be very problematic. But they would struggle to do this in the open Indian or Pacific Ocean. They have lots of shorter range vessels, but still not much in the long range capability.

My point was that if we move our critical supply lanes to the Indian or Pacific Oceans and out of the SE China Sea, then the the tyranny of distance actually plays to our favour. I recognise this is easier said than done, is expensive, and it still has some risks, but it is a practical approach to reducing an adversary's hold over us in the maritime environment.

I take your point they have sizable auxiliary grey fleets. These can certainly cause problems. But to board a tanker or container ship on the high seas does require a large surface combatant vessel. You can't do this with a fishing boat.

 

[StingrayOZ]

This is absolutely correct, most of the stuff we import and export is to China. They wouldn’t have to send any military hardware to cripple us, just stop the ships.

The crippling will go both ways. No coal, no iron ore, no gas. They are trying to fix their dependance on Australia, but it isn't there yet. China would be out of the export business globally, so hundreds of millions out of work. Which is why Australia is such an important partner with Japan, we have collateral with China. China can probably do without Japan's import/exports. However, with Australia it would be a big thing.
If the straits of Malacca and Sunda are mined or insecure, then the next obvious way around is around Australia.

You've just indicated why it's not a viable strategy, because Australia doesn't have the ship numbers to perform escort duties.

Australia has almost no merchant vessels to escort. Most of our shipping is raw materials, the ships come back empty, leave full. They are owned or operated by those buying the resources. So in war or blockade, they just stop moving, not be escorted. Australia has no alliance treaty with China. The minerals can sit the ground for a few more years, they have sat there for hundreds of millions.

Our busiest commercial shipping container port is Melbourne. Our trade doesn't really go through many choke points, at least not our trade with the US/Japan/India. Europe takes us to suez. And Malacca is a choke point for everyone, Australia gets a lot of its refined oil from singapore, and Australia has significant input over that. Our biggest choke points are the trade lines directly around our ports and cities, they would need to be secured and patrolled. Not just 15,000km of ocean transit. Our strategic relationship with Japan, may mean we have more concern about PNG and through those areas with our allied partner.

I wouldn't say Australia is at extreme risk of blockade. But global war is different, anything can happen at any time. Australia needs capability to be able to patrol and secure its EEZ waters. That is an achievable goals.

During global war we would have to expect that things like car imports, electronics etc would likely stop. That mineral exports to China, would likely stop.

 

[seaspear]

This information is released on the Spearfish torpedo perhaps giving an idea on the latest mark 48 capabilities

Spearfish Mod 1 torpedo goes into service after final trials by HMS Audacious - Navy Lookout

Already one of the finest heavyweight torpedoes in the world, the programme to further enhance the accuracy and lethality of Spearfish is now complete. After extensive development and trials, the weapon has now been declared operational by the RN. The Spearfish upgrade project began in 2010 to...

www.navylookout.com

 

[GregorZ]

It's a really big double edged sword though. We might lose access to finished goods such as cars and whitegoods, but China would lose access to commodities such as LNG, coal and iron ore. We are such a large supplier of all of these to them, that they would struggle to replace with others.

I suspect this might hurt them more than us.

Agree it would hurt them as well, but in conflict, which is the context, they’d not have to send a single bit of hardware our way to cripple us. A large majority of our consumer goods, mechanical parts, spares, medical supplies, etc come from China. Take a look a round you, and look at what you’d find it hard to live without, then see which of those are made in China with no reasonable substitute.
Stopping the ships and some cyber warfare, would cripple us.