Royal Australian Navy Discussions and Updates 2.0

[John Fedup]

I hope they remember to take a box of similar tee shirts for the Don, Vance et al.

We should take up a collection to cover the Asian tee-shirt vendor tariffs, a worthwhile investment IMHO!

 

[hauritz]

The biggest threat to Australia isn't invasion, it is our economy.

Our biggest trading partners, the ones we actually have trade surpluses with, are China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Any war involving China, whether we are on the winning side or not, will be economically disasterous for Australia. The US will be fine, they can provide most of what they need by themselves and are bordered by "friendly" nations such as Canada and Mexico. Europe is also its own ecosystem. Even China could probably rely on Russia to gain access to the resources it would need to keep its wartime economy afloat. As for Australia, we are probably screwed. Protecting our SLOCs may be pointless if our trading partners don't exist. The Australian economy would be lucky to survive more than a year or two.

To make things worse even if Australia stood on the sidelines our economy would still be screwed.

The best thing we can do is create alliances in the hope that this will be enough to deter Chinese adventurism.

This should be enough to keep strategic planners laying awake at night.

 

[Tasman]

The biggest threat to Australia isn't invasion, it is our economy.

Covid clearly demonstrated the need for the Australian economy to become far more resilient to external shocks and there was much talk from all sides of politics that the country needed to greatly reduce reliance on overseas suppliers. Unfortunately, little seems to have happened since then. As an example, Blind Freddie should be able to understand that counting fuel stocks stored overseas as part of the country's strategic fuel reserve is idiotic.

Perhaps I am a dinosaur, but I grew up at a time when Australia was working hard to develop manufacturing industries rather than just farming and mining. In my lifetime I have seen a car and parts manufacturing industry grow, prosper, and then die, oil refineries built and shut down and garment production almost entirely moved offshore to 'more efficient' factories. Mining continues to thrive, and our hospitality industry has grown but I worry that our young people are looking at a future where they will be at the mercy of rich tourists. Even our farming industry seems to be in decline.

I really hope that continuous naval shipbuilding becomes an ongoing reality and that Australia becomes far more self-sufficient in producing the weapons, missiles and ammunition that would be needed if the country were to be involved in an existential conflict.

Tas

 

[old faithful]

Covid clearly demonstrated the need for the Australian economy to become far more resilient to external shocks and there was much talk from all sides of politics that the country needed to greatly reduce reliance on overseas suppliers. Unfortunately, little seems to have happened since then. As an example, Blind Freddie should be able to understand that counting fuel stocks stored overseas as part of the countries strategic fuel reserve is idiotic.

Perhaps I am a dinosaur, but I grew up at a time when Australia was working hard to develop manufacturing industries rather than just farming and mining. In my lifetime I have seen a car and parts manufacturing industry grow, prosper, and then die, oil refineries built and shut down and garment production almost entirely moved offshore to 'more efficient' factories. Mining continues to thrive, and our hospitality industry has grown but I worry that our young people are looking at a future where they will be at the mercy of rich tourists. Even our farming industry seems to be in decline.

I really hope that continuous naval shipbuilding becomes an ongoing reality and that Australia becomes far more self-sufficient in producing the weapons, missiles and ammunition that would be needed if the country were to be involved in an existential conflict.

Tas

I have a background in tourism, and it's very vulnerable.
I was working on the Cairns marlin fleet when 911 struck, and 90% of our seasons bookings were cancelled on the spot. That was devastating for the industry that year, same as for the dive boats.
Worse still was covid. But effected even more than just tourism of course.
We really need to be self reliant as much as possible. I heard a really good podcast on conversations by Richard Fidler on ABC radio a few years back, was about a small business that grew then died, as a result of free trade agreements. Guy started a business making gears for hills hoist clothes lines, then went on to victor lawn mower parts, then to GMH and Ford parts, electric motors for GE and Sunbeam, grew into one of Australia's biggest apprentice employer, from just about every trade, to closing down completely.

 

[Bob53]

True. The deeper we look into a scenario, the more complex the outcomes can be.

I would view China could enact what you have said with relative ease within the SE China Sea region, and supply lanes in this area would be very problematic. But they would struggle to do this in the open Indian or Pacific Ocean. They have lots of shorter range vessels, but still not much in the long range capability.

My point was that if we move our critical supply lanes to the Indian or Pacific Oceans and out of the SE China Sea, then the the tyranny of distance actually plays to our favour. I recognise this is easier said than done, is expensive, and it still has some risks, but it is a practical approach to reducing an adversary's hold over us in the maritime environment.

I take your point they have sizable auxiliary grey fleets. These can certainly cause problems. But to board a tanker or container ship on the high seas does require a large surface combatant vessel. You can't do this with a fishing boat.

If we can get oil and petroleum from other countries I think we will be ok without Chinese imports. On the other hand about 35% of government revenues come from taxes related to Chinese trade.…so a few programs would be under risk and I’d imagine our debt would explode.

 

[Bob53]

Agree it would hurt them as well, but in conflict, which is the context, they’d not have to send a single bit of hardware our way to cripple us. A large majority of our consumer goods, mechanical parts, spares, medical supplies, etc come from China. Take a look a round you, and look at what you’d find it hard to live without, then see which of those are made in China with no reasonable substitute.
Stopping the ships and some cyber warfare, would cripple us.

Mate we can live without most of the stuff on Temu. Over git enough rubber dog shit to last me years. Certainly we may have a TV and appliance shortage but realistically we can live without most of them.

 

[hauritz]

I have a background in tourism, and it's very vulnerable.
I was working on the Cairns marlin fleet when 911 struck, and 90% of our seasons bookings were cancelled on the spot. That was devastating for the industry that year, same as for the dive boats.
Worse still was covid. But effected even more than just tourism of course.
We really need to be self reliant as much as possible. I heard a really good podcast on conversations by Richard Fidler on ABC radio a few years back, was about a small business that grew then died, as a result of free trade agreements. Guy started a business making gears for hills hoist clothes lines, then went on to victor lawn mower parts, then to GMH and Ford parts, electric motors for GE and Sunbeam, grew into one of Australia's biggest apprentice employer, from just about every trade, to closing down completely.

Manufacturing in Australia is continuing to decline. It now only represents about 5% of our GDP. That's down from 28% in the 1960s.

I am not sure how we can turn this around. We have lost that skilled work force, our labour costs are high, we have a limited domestic market and subsequently a lack of investors willing to back local manufacturing.

 

[iambuzzard]

Mate we can live without most of the stuff on Temu. Over git enough rubber dog shit to last me years. Certainly we may have a TV and appliance shortage but realistically we can live without most of them.

Have you seen what's on TV lately? I'd rather the discussions on this forum. More informative.