The possibility for Australia involing in TaiwanStrait Conflict

[Manfred]

Good information, but I am still trying to find time to hunto down hard numbers.

BTW- Ladies and Gentlmen, all I am trying to do is prep. for a war game, not convert any of you to my point of view.

It looks like it's going to be more work than I thought, but I still think it is possible.

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

You realise the complexity needed to acuratly war game this? You cant just go "Chinese fleet leaves port at 1600 hrs". You need port capacities, accurate numbers of boots, numbers of systems, capabilities of systems, cargo capacity of amphibs, defenceive dispositions, weapons stokpiles, position of ammo dumps, rail and road capacity for the area, on and behind the battlefield on both sides, topograpfhy of the battlespace, ect ect ect. I'm not sure it can be done in this context. Why dont people just put forward plans and we can debate them? It might be a more feasable idea than attempting to war game it.

 

[Aussie Digger]

I prefer Quality also, but since I am playing Devil's advocat here...

I wish had more time for this!!!
Assuming some small raids (Chinese commandoes from trawlers, a mini-sub following under a cruise-ship in Melbourne). What ships will stay and what ships would be sent to Taiwan? Could they make it in 48 hours?

Hypothetical sceario- a rapid pull-out leads to an Islamo-Fascist victory in Iraq in 2008, and the new US Goverment adopts a policy of appeasment. This could radiacly slow down a US response to a threat to Taiwan, or any other war. How would that affect deployment of Allied forces?

The first thing that would happen, would that State police based special operations (SWAT if you must) would respond, there'd be a fairly violent clash, and your State sponsored terrorist scenario would be over. F-111's would probably be used then to sink the trawler in another Government "demonstration".

Quite a few people would die. Real people. Not electrons.

Next, we'd keep their money, but probably stop sending them natural gas and coal. They've signed a US $20b contract with us, guaranteeing them access to these resources and we are more than happy to sell it to them. However such an idiotically designed "suicide mission" for NO benefit what so ever, would turn the Australian Government away from it's good current relations with the Chinese.

I doubt ANY large military assets are going to deploy anywhere in 48hrs without proper battle preparation and "work ups". This is not a video game, you are discussing real life scenario's and you therefore need to take reality into consideration.

Why they would want to jepoardise this I have no idea. How long do you think the insane leader is going to remain in power, when the people are freezing to death?

If the USA wouldn't fight for Taiwan, Australia CERTAINLY wouldn't. If the USA adopted a policy of appeasement (though again a major legislative change in the USA would be required for that) Taiwan would be re-integrated into China shortly thereafter I'd imagine.

 

[LazerLordz]

I doubt any PLAN fleet can get to Australia without passing through the South China Sea unnoticed, and if they are on a war footing, I wouldn't be surprised that ASEAN will get involved one way or another when the crap hits the fan and our ships are sunk "accidentally".

Who monitors the South China Sea? The boys in Shoalwater Bay.

Come to think of it, it is highly unlikely.Anyway, for OT's sake, Japan and Singapore may pursue closer security cooperation.

 

[ssmoore]

My 2 cent is if this would ever happen it will be atleast 25 years in the future. If these 9 gentleman you speak of in china that run the whole country really have war in there thoughts they know there not ready yet and starting it now would be way premature. China would have to continue to attack our manufacturing base until its almost gone, While they build forces and technology.

While our manufacturing base is eroding and our middle class is dissapearing it will hurt out tax base and make it harder and harder to maintain this awesome navy and air force that we all hope will be there, when and if this ever happens.

Back in world war 2, Detroit , Michigan was called the arsenal of democracy. All of our car plants switched over to making tanks, planes, machine guns, bullets and so on. Not to say other plants in other states didnt but I can tell you things are in sad shape here in Michigan today. Alot of these plants have been shut down and in another 25 years they will be all but collapsed in on themselves. Yes they have been replaced some what by the japanese but who is to say they would switch over to make weapons of war. I guess what Im saying is if this continues we will have no ability to actually sustain a long hard fought war against a tough enemy. Unless you can switch a McDonalds or Burger King into a war factory.nfloorl:

Yes today they would be crazy to start a war but just give them some more time and we will be ripe for the picking. You see china has the biggest weapon of all . Lots of people that work for nothing.

 

[Manfred]

Last point; they (China) do not think along the same lines we do.

Don't believe me? One word; Tiananmien.

And who in the blue blazes is going to be worried about maritime insureance rates if they are going to war?!? Unbelievable...

Too much thinking along conventional lines, too little rememberance of lessons past.
First and foremost; every war in the past has been a surprise, ESPECIALY to the folks that were training to fight the last war.

Most serious point of all (brought home by all the bright people posting here) ; the Chinese would have to come up with some very original solutions to some 58 year-old problems. Are you saying that they are incapale of doing so?

 

[tphuang]

I doubt any PLAN fleet can get to Australia without passing through the South China Sea unnoticed, and if they are on a war footing, I wouldn't be surprised that ASEAN will get involved one way or another when the crap hits the fan and our ships are sunk "accidentally".

Who monitors the South China Sea? The boys in Shoalwater Bay.

Come to think of it, it is highly unlikely.Anyway, for OT's sake, Japan and Singapore may pursue closer security cooperation.

I guess the fact that Japan occupied Singapore in WWII and the fact that Singapore is mostly ethnically Chinese do not matter?

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

Last point; they (China) do not think along the same lines we do.

Don't believe me? One word; Tiananmien.

What does Tianamien show? That the way the chinese communist party reacts to political decent is to send in the tanks. Your right, they dont think like us, they think like the Soviet Union, you remember a similar reation to the Hungarian revolution in 1956?

Too much thinking along conventional lines, too little rememberance of lessons past.
First and foremost; every war in the past has been a surprise, ESPECIALY to the folks that were training to fight the last war.

Most serious point of all (brought home by all the bright people posting here) ; the Chinese would have to come up with some very original solutions to some 58 year-old problems. Are you saying that they are incapale of doing so?

So your argument is somehow, but neither you or anyone else here knows how, the chinese have figured out some magical way to supply troops over unsecured sea lanes, or avoid the effects of supply and demand in a market economy. All the "bright" people on here have yet to outline any of these chinese solutions, just that the chinese would have them. Saying someone else would have thought of the solutions but you dont know what they are is no argument at all.

Simply saying that this war will be different and everyone else will be suprised, implying everyone who has put foreward an argument baced frimly in military logic and funnily enough they all seem to be the people who disagree with you, but again not outlineing how is no argument. The "next" war was allways envisaged by some, like Gudarian or Romell in WW2, or Monash in WW1. At least they had an argument to put foreward.

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

I guess the fact that Japan occupied Singapore in WWII and the fact that Singapore is mostly ethnically Chinese do not matter?

The imperial japanese army invaded Austalian territory, launched a sustained air campaign against our northen population centres, and commited war crimes on our thousands of POW's and even nurses. But we just signed a defence treaty with them? But thats different right?

Oh yeah and pakistan and india are ethnically similar, and they have the warmest of relations huh?

 

[Transient]

I guess the fact that Japan occupied Singapore in WWII and the fact that Singapore is mostly ethnically Chinese do not matter?

Singapore has shown that it can, like Australia, put the past behind instead of remaining with a world war 2 mentality. Singapore's government is also pragmatic enough to not let race get in the way when considering its foreign policy. Were China to go on an expeditionary rampage ala WW2 Imperial Japan (as the scenario where China tries to attack Australia implies), you can bet Singapore is throwing in her lot with Australia and the US. Don't be silly enough to think that Singapore will aid China just because they have a Chinese majority population. Not even the Chinese population will accept Singapore aiding a belligerent China.

 

[Schumacher]

Singapore has shown that it can, like Australia, put the past behind instead of remaining with a world war 2 mentality. Singapore's government is also pragmatic enough to not let race get in the way when considering its foreign policy. Were China to go on an expeditionary rampage ala WW2 Imperial Japan (as the scenario where China tries to attack Australia implies), you can bet Singapore is throwing in her lot with Australia and the US. Don't be silly enough to think that Singapore will aid China just because they have a Chinese majority population. Not even the Chinese population will accept Singapore aiding a belligerent China.

Such simplistic views. It all depends on the situation really.
If China's attack on Taiwan is due to Taiwan's declaration of independence, unlikely many Asian nations, except Japan maybe, will come to Taiwan's aid militarily or diplomatically.
In such a situation, if Aust decides to confront China militarily & China retaliates against it, neither S'pore, nor any Asian nation, again except Japan perhaps, will 'throw in her lot' with Aust. Like u said, S'pore, & most other nations are pragmatic. Whether S'pore will aid China's attack on Aust will depend a lot on the geopolitical situation at the time.
However, if China decides to attack Aust just for the fun of it, then it's true China will find few backers.

 

[Transient]

Were China to go on an expeditionary rampage ala WW2 Imperial Japan

Perhaps that's too hard for you to understand?

 

[Schumacher]

Perhaps that's too hard for you to understand?

Not at all, as I mentioned I agreed with u in such a situation abt having few backers.
I do have to add, although S'pore is unlikely to back China, it's not likely she or many other Asian nations will 'throw in their lot' for Aust even in such a situation.

 

[Transient]

Not at all, as I mentioned I agreed with u in such a situation abt having few backers.

If you agreed, then why the extra nonsense about 'simplistic views' and other scenarios, considering that I had qualified my analysis of Singapore's likely response based on a fixed scenario? An axe to grind blinding good judgement?

I do have to add, although S'pore is unlikely to back China, it's not likely she or many other Asian nations will 'throw in their lot' for Aust even in such a situation.

Not likely? If China was a belligerent country attacking Australia, whether for resources or plain spite, she would be seen as a threat to the region's peace and security. Furthermore Singapore enjoys good relations with Australia. Help from Singapore might not be overt, but help is very likely to be forthcoming.

 

[Schumacher]

If you agreed, then why the extra nonsense about 'simplistic views' and other scenarios, considering that I had qualified my analysis of Singapore's likely response based on a fixed scenario? An axe to grind blinding good judgement?

Not likely? If China was a belligerent country attacking Australia, whether for resources or plain spite, she would be seen as a threat to the region's peace and security. Furthermore Singapore enjoys good relations with Australia. Help from Singapore might not be overt, but help is very likely to be forthcoming.

The parts abt attitudes towards WW2 & 'throwing her lot' for Aust were indeed simplistic.
Don't get me wrong, I believe an attack against Aust like WW2 should be stopped. But a China confident enough to pull such a stunt is most likely much stronger than it is today. Pragmatic Asian nations will side with the strong & who they think will prevail. Why should thay antagonize China, unless of course they believe China will come after them after Aust.
In fact, if China were to offer Indonesia some parts of Northern Aust in return for some support, which side do u think they'll pick ?

 

[Transient]

But a China confident enough to pull such a stunt is most likely much stronger than it is today.

China is not going to be strong enough to pull off a stunt like this and succeed, not now, not in the forseeable future. But as discussed above, despite not being able to, some still think China can. All arguments have been based on that premise.

The parts abt attitudes towards WW2

Singapore's pragmatism has allowed Singapore to develop good relations with Japan. Even though Singapore does not agree with Japan's denial of WW2 atrocities, Singapore's relations with Japan is far unlike China and S.Korea's. Nowhere in Singapore will you see the type of anti-Japanese brainwashing you see in China.

 

[Schumacher]

China is not going to be strong enough to pull off a stunt like this and succeed, not now, not in the forseeable future. But as discussed above, despite not being able to, some still think China can. All arguments have been based on that premise.

ok.

Singapore's pragmatism has allowed Singapore to develop good relations with Japan. Even though Singapore does not agree with Japan's denial of WW2 atrocities, Singapore's relations with Japan is far unlike China and S.Korea's. Nowhere in Singapore will you see the type of anti-Japanese brainwashing you see in China.

U may not know China-Japan trade is among the most important to each of them. And China has in fact passed US as Japan's trade partner.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A40192-2005Jan26.html

So which part of it is not pragmatic enough ? Like all governments, China will use history or whatever to gain diplomatic leverage & it still see WW2 as useful vis-a-vis Japan.
But S'pore simply has no interest now to push as hard on this issue.

 

[Transient]

U may not know China-Japan trade is among the most important to each of them. And China has in fact passed US as Japan's trade partner.

Your point being?

So which part of it is not pragmatic enough ?

Being pragmatic means not only taking into consideration trade, but security. It would be hard not to see Singapore consider a belligerent China that's willing to violate Australian sovereignty as a security threat.

Pragmatic Asian nations will side with the strong & who they think will prevail.

Well who's the simplistic one here? Nations don't side with the strong simply because they are strong - or else we would see a world under American leadership with every country following America's bidding.

 

[Schumacher]

Your point being?

Being pragmatic means not only taking into consideration trade, but security. It would be hard not to see Singapore consider a belligerent China that's willing to violate Australian sovereignty as a security threat.

Well who's the simplistic one here? Nations don't side with the strong simply because they are strong - or else we would see a world under American leadership with every country following America's bidding.

U still don't understand. Such huge trade is not pragmatic enough for u ? It is pragmatic for China to keep the WW2 issue alive, it think it'll get more benefit this way. And as for security, I suspect PLA will like to have more exchanges with Japan & US forces to have some good looks at her stuffs. It's Japan that wants to keep them at arms length.

Why do u repeat that S'pore may or may not see China as threat if she attacks Aust ? As I said, no Asian nation will 'throw in her lot' for Aust against a China strong enough to attack it.

As for US, sure they don't openly support US, most are even critical of the Iraq war. But how many 'throw in her lot' against US for Iraq ?

 

[Transient]

Such huge trade is not pragmatic enough for u ?

Do you understand what it means to act pragmatically? Or is your understanding of pragmatism with regards to how nations formulate national policy so simplistic as to cause you to believe that trade statistics are the only factors underpinning their decisions?

Why do u repeat that S'pore may or may not see China as threat if she attacks Aust ? As I said, no Asian nation will 'throw in her lot' for Aust against a China strong enough to attack it.

And can China attack Singapore and Australia successfully all of a sudden now? Even if Singapore is unable to defend against Chinese aggression, do you really think that the US going to let a Chinese attack on Australia and Singapore slide?