Ozzy Blizzard
New Member
Wow rich, on that one i actually agree with you. :shudder 
:
Chinese public opinion has a different meaning to public opinion in a western democracy, especially with state owned, controlled and censored press, that opinion can be moulded quite easily.
In reguard to the Australian security accord with Japan, it is not publicly directed at china. However, the massive military expantion going on in the PROC has not gone unnoticed in Canberra or Tokyo. This is seen as the major long term strategic threat for both of the nations concened, and however pleasant the relationship is now or how profitable the economic benifits are, the possibility of a future conflict is rising. Economic ties are no guarentee. Australia was still a major trading partner with Japan in 1939 when no one else would trade with them, yet less than three years later we were defending our own teritory from a Japanese invasion.
I know a few Chinese guys who are studying here, there is no hostility from them towards the west at all. Some had travelled to the states and loved it. They feel sorry for the people of Nk, and bad that they installed such an opressive regime. Though i doubt any of them are old enough to remember the 5 year plan or little red books. But unfortunatly the fact is that the politburo is anserable to no one and their oppinions dont mean anything in a political sence.
As far as Australias involvement in a conflict over Taiwan i dont see it being a "military, political and economic disaster" as some posters dramatically stated. Politically the defence of Taiwan would be more pallitable to the international community than the invasion of Iraq. Millitarily we would be in a coalition with ROC, Japan and the US, and our involement would porbably be in the form of the Collins class boat and possibly some air assets, special forces, maybe a hobart and a couple of ANZACs as part of a USN/JSDF battlegroup, and some specialist stuff. I dont see how this would be a military disaster, in fact i would be impressed if PLAN could even drop a torpedo in the vacinity of a collins let alone sink one. Economically, the resource indistry is heavilly reliant on chinese demand at the moment. However even without chinese demand there is a hungry market for resources globally, and the industry would recover in the mid term. Much of the sustanance that the Australian consumer society relies on is produced in China, thats why our trade deficit is always in the red, and the reduction of supply would push up prices and cause economic upheaval. This may lead to a resession in the short term, but most of Australia's economic growth is driven by domestic demand and not exports, therefore it would not lead to long term economic depression. However the economic consequences for Australia not as relevant as one might think. Whether we actually got envolved in the conflict or not the consequences would be verry similar. If direct millitary action was not taken there would be strong domestic pressure for some intervention, and sanctions would be a likely possibility. However even if sanctions were not imposed, the drastic economic effects that a war with the US would have on china would be devistating, and chinese production of consumer goods and demand for resourses would fall dramatically. So the consquences would not be that different if we did get directly involved or we just sat on the sidelines, so the economic point is allmost a moot one IMHO.
However if we did not get involved we would have let a deomcratic nation in the asia pacific region, be invaded by a communist nation who is percieved as a strategic threat. We would have let two close allies (one very very close ally: the US) go to war in our region without our involvement. We went into Iraq on the other side of the world in the name of the US alliance, yet we would not get involved when our strategic interests were alot more prevelant? An unchallanged millitaristic china that launched an invasion of Taiwan would not be in Australia's interests at all IMHO, and i dont see the drastic consequences if we did get involved compared to the situation if we didn't. Would we destroy our long term realtions with PROC? probably. But in the long term it would just strengthen our economic and military ties with India and Japan.
I'm not advocating the conflict, it would be devistating for the people of China and Taiwan who would die in their hundreds of thousands, devistating economically for the region and the world generaly in the short term, and specifily in Australia. I just dont see why there is "no way" australia would not get involved, and how things would be so different if we did.
: Chinese public opinion has a different meaning to public opinion in a western democracy, especially with state owned, controlled and censored press, that opinion can be moulded quite easily.
In reguard to the Australian security accord with Japan, it is not publicly directed at china. However, the massive military expantion going on in the PROC has not gone unnoticed in Canberra or Tokyo. This is seen as the major long term strategic threat for both of the nations concened, and however pleasant the relationship is now or how profitable the economic benifits are, the possibility of a future conflict is rising. Economic ties are no guarentee. Australia was still a major trading partner with Japan in 1939 when no one else would trade with them, yet less than three years later we were defending our own teritory from a Japanese invasion.
I know a few Chinese guys who are studying here, there is no hostility from them towards the west at all. Some had travelled to the states and loved it. They feel sorry for the people of Nk, and bad that they installed such an opressive regime. Though i doubt any of them are old enough to remember the 5 year plan or little red books. But unfortunatly the fact is that the politburo is anserable to no one and their oppinions dont mean anything in a political sence.
As far as Australias involvement in a conflict over Taiwan i dont see it being a "military, political and economic disaster" as some posters dramatically stated. Politically the defence of Taiwan would be more pallitable to the international community than the invasion of Iraq. Millitarily we would be in a coalition with ROC, Japan and the US, and our involement would porbably be in the form of the Collins class boat and possibly some air assets, special forces, maybe a hobart and a couple of ANZACs as part of a USN/JSDF battlegroup, and some specialist stuff. I dont see how this would be a military disaster, in fact i would be impressed if PLAN could even drop a torpedo in the vacinity of a collins let alone sink one. Economically, the resource indistry is heavilly reliant on chinese demand at the moment. However even without chinese demand there is a hungry market for resources globally, and the industry would recover in the mid term. Much of the sustanance that the Australian consumer society relies on is produced in China, thats why our trade deficit is always in the red, and the reduction of supply would push up prices and cause economic upheaval. This may lead to a resession in the short term, but most of Australia's economic growth is driven by domestic demand and not exports, therefore it would not lead to long term economic depression. However the economic consequences for Australia not as relevant as one might think. Whether we actually got envolved in the conflict or not the consequences would be verry similar. If direct millitary action was not taken there would be strong domestic pressure for some intervention, and sanctions would be a likely possibility. However even if sanctions were not imposed, the drastic economic effects that a war with the US would have on china would be devistating, and chinese production of consumer goods and demand for resourses would fall dramatically. So the consquences would not be that different if we did get directly involved or we just sat on the sidelines, so the economic point is allmost a moot one IMHO.
However if we did not get involved we would have let a deomcratic nation in the asia pacific region, be invaded by a communist nation who is percieved as a strategic threat. We would have let two close allies (one very very close ally: the US) go to war in our region without our involvement. We went into Iraq on the other side of the world in the name of the US alliance, yet we would not get involved when our strategic interests were alot more prevelant? An unchallanged millitaristic china that launched an invasion of Taiwan would not be in Australia's interests at all IMHO, and i dont see the drastic consequences if we did get involved compared to the situation if we didn't. Would we destroy our long term realtions with PROC? probably. But in the long term it would just strengthen our economic and military ties with India and Japan.
I'm not advocating the conflict, it would be devistating for the people of China and Taiwan who would die in their hundreds of thousands, devistating economically for the region and the world generaly in the short term, and specifily in Australia. I just dont see why there is "no way" australia would not get involved, and how things would be so different if we did.
