Is China capable of crippling US CSF's in Chinese ses?

[goldenpanda]

I wouldn't recommend feeding an airborne army into a modern IADS - even if it is degraded by BM's and CM's. They are just to easy to shoot down en route.

Long range and specialised aircraft will have to be postioned. Naval power will have to be nearby. If things are not in place, the invasion is doomed for failure before it starts.

The Warsaw Pact experimented with civilian sealift for amphibeous assault and found it would be suicide. Specialised assets for that - not fishing vessels or RO/RO's.

The time it takes to suppress/degrade AD is the time to visibly mobilize. China also has some cover in the exercises which it carries out regularly. It depends a lot on where the carriers are. I'm not sure why USA maintains just one carrier in western pacific when it has no other major challenger.

 

[DarthAmerica]

I think the USN do sometimes concentrate several CVN in the same operational group, but not sure. It would be too much speculation from me on what the pros and cons are. Perhaps one of the posters with knowledge on this subject could clear this up?

USN CSF are highly mission configurable. Operational circumstances determine the exact composition and US/Allied Carriers routinely operate together.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...Forrestal_Invincible_1991_DN-ST-92-01129s.jpg

DA

 

[Grand Danois]

The time it takes to suppress/degrade AD is the time to visibly mobilize. China also has some cover in the exercises which it carries out regularly. It depends a lot on where the carriers are. I'm not sure why USA maintains just one carrier in western pacific when it has no other major challenger.

But that would mean no boots on the ground before the IADS has been degraded sufficiently. All the while the clock is ticking.

 

[DarthAmerica]

But that would mean no boots on the ground before the IADS has been degraded sufficiently. All the while the clock is ticking.

Whats not being said is that the PLAAF needs time to mobilize as well. Without sufficient mass, they will take heavy losses and fail to gain air superiority over the strait or Taiwan. Further, Taiwan has and is increasing its capability to strike the mainland directly. All this is before anybody else even decides to intervene.


DA

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

I said zero signs I didn't say zero preparation. I don't see how 200,000 troops has a small logistical trail at all.

For one thing, the area on the border is not exactly devoid of cover. Second there was no massing of shipping or air assets for the attack - all that was needed was to move men quickly and carefully into the area.

The airborne army can quickly follow the BM's.

And what's going to stop them being shot down in the air or cut to ribbons when they've landed? Don't say the missiles are going to wipe out all opposition. Those paratroopers won't hold out for long by themselves.

The sea invasion can stream in as assets become ready. Hey Chinese are used to sailing in bamboo floats with little preparation or support.

OH MY GOD, it's like the million-man swim again.......

Look, the whole point is that as soon as China started mobilising the ships to bring the troops and heavy equipment over, the game would be up and everyone would know what's going on. You can do it on bamboo floats, because there'd be no equipment or support to counter attacks by the ROCN/ROCAF.

The airborne army can even sustain itself on Taiwan to some extent. Really they have zero strategic depth. All their leaders will be captured or cutoff.

The airborne army would be surrounded and slaughtered/forced to surrender without ground support. Taiwan has rapid-reaction forces to counter an airborne scenario.

 

[Rich]

I appreciate you analysis but I think the Pearl Harbor analogy/history doesn't compare well to the PRC-Taiwan issue. The Japanese knew they had little chance for success by direct conflict with America. But they attacked for a different reason. They were motivated by national survival and trying not to lose the broader "Pacific War". For the PRC vs Taiwan, its hard to call it national survival. Sure they are annoyed by the thought of an independent Taiwan. But its hardly a life or death issue.

You missed my point. I wasnt comparing the two conflict scenarios, I was comparing the possibilities of miscalculation based on Political, ethnic, and social differences, between an Asian empire and the USA.

Japan would have survived just fine if they hadn't attacked us. Their dreams of hegemony would have shattered and they would have lost great "face". The Chinese dream of regional hegemony too and like 1941 Japan their form of government is only answerable to itself. And like the Japanese in WW-ll the Chinese feel the effects of the US policy of encirclement and containment.

Really there is much the same. Most of all the clash of two foreign cultures trying to understand the other.

 

[DarthAmerica]

You missed my point. I wasnt comparing the two conflict scenarios, I was comparing the possibilities of miscalculation based on Political, ethnic, and social differences, between an Asian empire and the USA.

Japan would have survived just fine if they hadn't attacked us. Their dreams of hegemony would have shattered and they would have lost great "face". The Chinese dream of regional hegemony too and like 1941 Japan their form of government is only answerable to itself. And like the Japanese in WW-ll the Chinese feel the effects of the US policy of encirclement and containment.

Really there is much the same. Most of all the clash of two foreign cultures trying to understand the other.

OK, I see your point. There is always a chance of a miscalculation.

DA

 

[abramsteve]

Another reason why nobody saw these 200,000 troops might have somthing to do with the fact that nobody was looking on that side of the border. A chinese attack on Taiwan is'nt going to come from Japan, as soon as tensions flare up, you can bet on dozens of inteligence assets looking for Chinese movements.

An airborne invasion requires at least partial air superiority, especialy if your going to move large amounts of troops. Airborne forces are traditionaly light infantry, good at moving, bad at holding, especialy for long periods of time. (exceptions being 101st in the Ardeness). Remeber they are taking on the entire Taiwanese army on home soil, not including tameing the civilians aswell.

This brings you back to sealift, which cant be done quitley or easily.So the question is, can they adequatley protect these sealift assets?

 

[goldenpanda]

For one thing, the area on the border is not exactly devoid of cover. Second there was no massing of shipping or air assets for the attack - all that was needed was to move men quickly and carefully into the area.

My point here is that a seemingly blatant task can be concealed, if all its participants are dedicated to doing so.

OH MY GOD, it's like the million-man swim again.......

why not? their beaches are in range of our MLRS.

The airborne army would be surrounded and slaughtered/forced to surrender without ground support. Taiwan has rapid-reaction forces to counter an airborne scenario.

China can airlift 120mm guns (i think 3-4 per IL76) as well as airdrop APC's. All of Taiwan is urbanized. How did T80's do in Chechnya? USA has lost 200 M1's in Iraq to guerrillas. Patriot systems are the big worry, but they tend to have fixed deployments. China would not be building all the airborne armies if it didn't think AD can be handled.

 

[DarthAmerica]

China can airlift 120mm guns (i think 3-4 per IL76) as well as airdrop APC's. All of Taiwan is urbanized. How did T80's do in Chechnya? USA has lost 200 M1's in Iraq to guerrillas. Patriot systems are the big worry, but they tend to have fixed deployments. China would not be building all the airborne armies if it didn't think AD can be handled.

This is completely detached from any reality on several levels but I'll just focus on whats relevant to the topic. PRC aren't going to airlift anything into contested airspace. And even if it did, how are you going to support it? Do you have any idea how maintenance intensive an Armored vehicle is? In that environment you would consume too much fuel and ammo to last more than a few days at best. Any PRC mechanized force would need sustained continuous resupply that is only possible by sea. PRC CANNOT support the type of logistics necessary for an operation this big outside its territory over a water obstacle even in peacetime. How would you ever do it in combat?


DA

 

[goldenpanda]

Another reason why nobody saw these 200,000 troops might have somthing to do with the fact that nobody was looking on that side of the border.

I don't know why nobody was looking when Chinese repeatedly warned we'll intervene. The surprise was the presence of the troops and and attack itself.

You can only put so many soldiers on any front. Airborne will go against selected targets in urbanized areas. Taiwan may have some good troops. But I wouldn't count on their draft army for much of anything. They're frightened of mainlanders, like Europeans fear Russians. Historically they got their asses whipped by communists.

 

[DarthAmerica]

why not? their beaches are in range of our MLRS.

The PRC ports you need to assemble this force are also in range of Taiwans missiles.

 

[DarthAmerica]

I don't know why nobody was looking when Chinese repeatedly warned we'll intervene. The surprise was the presence of the troops and and attack itself.

You can only put so many soldiers on any front. Airborne will go against selected targets in urbanized areas. Taiwan may have some good troops. But I wouldn't count on their draft army for much of anything. They're frightened of mainlanders, like Europeans fear Russians. Historically they got their asses whipped by communists.

Taiwan has ~2 million military personnel. Do you realize how big a force you need to land to do this? Also you want to move light infantry into defended cities with no armor or air cover? Panda, you are not at all making any effort to listen to the very valid operational analysis being provided.

Here is a hint. You cant even move 1.5 million men and their equipment by sea even if you draft civilian ships. Further, even if you tried, the Monsoon seasons would limit you to May to July or just October. Otherwise they drown.

DA

 

[goldenpanda]

This is completely detached from any reality on several levels but I'll just focus on whats relevant to the topic. PRC aren't going to airlift anything into contested airspace. And even if it did, how are you going to support it? Do you have any idea how maintenance intensive an Armored vehicle is? In that environment you would consume too much fuel and ammo to last more than a few days at best. Any PRC mechanized force would need sustained continuous resupply that is only possible by sea. PRC CANNOT support the type of logistics necessary for an operation this big outside its territory over a water obstacle even in peacetime. How would you ever do it in combat?
DA

Whoever said they'll be dropped into contested airspace? And where do you get the idea we lack the logistics "even in peacetime". Are you still reading 1980's reports about our border divisions? If China can keep even one captured airport open, the supply capability is simply vast. Hey what do you think all their passenger cars are for if not for on the spot fuel tanks?

 

[goldenpanda]

The PRC ports you need to assemble this force are also in range of Taiwans missiles.

yeah those 2 dozen peashots with no intel to guide them.

 

[DarthAmerica]

Whoever said they'll be dropped into contested airspace? And where do you get the idea we lack the logistics "even in peacetime". Are you still reading 1980's reports about our border divisions? If China can keep even one captured airport open, the supply capability is simply vast. Hey what do you think all their passenger cars are for if not for on the spot fuel tanks?

1. Panda, how much ramp space does a IL-76 require?

2. What kind of fuel do you need for your vehicles?

3. Whats your port capacity?

4. How many tanks could China Sea Lift?

 

[abramsteve]

Whoever said they'll be dropped into contested airspace? And where do you get the idea we lack the logistics "even in peacetime". Are you still reading 1980's reports about our border divisions? If China can keep even one captured airport open, the supply capability is simply vast. Hey what do you think all their passenger cars are for if not for on the spot fuel tanks?

Explain how China is going to make it Un-contested airspace. Controll an airport? Great! Now all you got to do is control the air... Oh and keep it open

 

[goldenpanda]

Explain how China is going to make it Un-contested airspace. Controll an airport? Great! Now all you got to do is control the air... Oh and keep it open

I'll say again I'm no expert. My area is software. I'm just laying out reasonable scenarios based on what I know.

Patriot systems exist in known quantities (thanks CNN!) They are kind of big. They don't move around once deployed. Taiwan is a small place. Lots of eyes are looking that come from China, or that may not be loyal to Taiwan.

Even if USA revives its fighter launched ASAT program, China will have good intel at least in the beginning of a BM attack. All reports are we have put terminal guidance on BM's. These 1000kg warheads will fall about dozen meters from wherever we want them. There are 1000 of those and 50-100 more every year. Whether or not Taiwan tries to intercept them, at the end of the salvo they shouldn't have much of either aircraft in the air or AD on the ground. The rest will be taken out by the 400 or so fourth generation aircraft we have. They'll be looking for artillery that could disrupt the airport we have in our sights. Taiwan has something like 10 airports that can handle 747's. So Darth we can land the IL76's too.

Another problem with throwing artillery at the airport is, they'll be full of panicking Taiwanese passengers. There are 23 million people in a tiny place. The civilian population is going to have a huge impact on operations.

 

[DarthAmerica]

I'll say again I'm no expert. My area is software. I'm just laying out reasonable scenarios based on what I know.

Patriot systems exist in known quantities (thanks CNN!) They are kind of big. They don't move around once deployed. Taiwan is a small place. Lots of eyes are looking that come from China, or that may not be loyal to Taiwan.

Even if USA revives its fighter launched ASAT program, China will have good intel at least in the beginning of a BM attack. All reports are we have put terminal guidance on BM's. These 1000kg warheads will fall about dozen meters from wherever we want them. There are 1000 of those and 50-100 more every year. Whether or not Taiwan tries to intercept them, at the end of the salvo they shouldn't have much of either aircraft in the air or AD on the ground. The rest will be taken out by the 400 or so fourth generation aircraft we have. They'll be looking for artillery that could disrupt the airport we have in our sights. Taiwan has something like 10 airports that can handle 747's. So Darth we can land the IL76's too.

Panda,

You should at least get an idea of how to calculate ramp space before speculating that ONE captured airport could sustain an invasion force. None of your scenarios has been reasonable and many people have shown you why. You keep ignoring the logistics behind this.

DA

 

[Grand Danois]

I'll say again I'm no expert. My area is software. I'm just laying out reasonable scenarios based on what I know.

Patriot systems exist in known quantities (thanks CNN!) They are kind of big. They don't move around once deployed. Taiwan is a small place. Lots of eyes are looking that come from China, or that may not be loyal to Taiwan.

The problem with contested airspace, is that if you miss a single Patriot or other high end air defense system, it can take out a score of transports including its cargo of troops, light armour and towed guns in minutes. And there a a lot of those around in Taiwan. Not counting fighters and MANPADS - any of with will shut any conquered airport down.

It's not about the number of transports, but of how much supply and reinforcements you can push through a single point, which an airport is. And then do it under fire (contested air space) and with rudimentary air traffic control and a rudimentary cargo handling system. You just don't "take over" that infrastructure. You only conquer the asphalt.