Its only partially true. Even IF Chavez indeed will spend all addiditional money rising salarities of poor peoples, it will be still infiinitly better for ecomomy than if same money landed in the pockets of upper class. Money in the hand of poor peoples would mean drastical increase in education, medical, etc. level. Also it would mean drastical consumtion increase - and that is always good for economy. But let Chavez spends a part of same money specificaly for education, infrastructure, economical projects - the effect would be much greater. Either way, right now he do it much better than previous US supported leaders.
Venezuela is buying 9 SSKs !
- Thread starter contedicavour
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Time to get back on track folks.
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
So, just to check, which countries have confirmed they will sell the SSKs yet? Not according to the first article, but independent reporting would be nice please.
I assumed, the US would make an preemptive strike using stealth aircraft and cruise-missiles, launched by submarines. I think, this is a realistic scenario. Not the 5 carriers-bombing-to-stone-age approach you assume.You assumed 2 prepositions:
1. USA will conduct ground operation
2. USA will occuppy the country.
Both are absolutely essencial for so-called "defencive" tactic. The only problem - USA might as well NOT occupy the country, just bomb it to stone age, kill president and half goverement, bribe and blackmail all others - and the main objective - oil - is safe. This is not something Venzuella wants. Thats why, especeally for weak countries, offencive weapon is much more important than defencive. Note, the term "offencive" and "deffencive" is very misleading in many cases, as most weapons can be used in both roles - but still some weapons are defined as mostly "deffencive" due to naturally its habit to give all the initiative to enemy. The SAM's are a good example of such pure defencive weapon, or bunkers, etc...
Realistically, Venezuella (or any other country for that matter, even USA themselfes) can do NOTHING against constant barrage of cruise missiles IF said country dont fight back. Sooner or later - it will be ruined. Offence - FTW!
And I don't mentioned tactics in case of war. It's a matter of strategy to prevent war, of . Sure the US can bomb Venezuela to stone age. The question is, can any US government do this? And the following question is: can Chavez imagine, if the US government can do this?
Chavez thinks, he can use oil-dollars to spend social projects. Heard about any initiative to push private venture in Venezuela? Nope. Instead, he created a new 300,000 men militia. His policy is as "farsighted" as Castros. It will produce a poor (but healthy) country like Cuba.
I think, he could have achieved the same amount of money simply by higher taxation for the oil-industry. He did opt to nationalize the oil-industry. I predict, that the machinery will be weared down in 5 years, without investment into replacements. After that, the amount of oil will decline as rapidly as the environmental problems will rise.
contedicavour
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I haven't found other independent sources yet. I'd bet Spain will assume the role of procurement head with subcontracting to France's DCN. Russia may also make it. Zapatero and Putin won't hesitate if it comes down to pleasing the US on one side and employment and hard cash on the other side.
I don't see however France and Germany irritating the US by assuming a leading role now. Merkel won't and France won't make decisions until the presidential elections are over (Royal may be favourable given her erratic and eccentric foreign policy so far).
cheers
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
I've always wondered why it was China was able to block sales of submarines to Taiwan, when the US can't to a country like Venezuela. Maybe Washington should play hard-ball like Beijing - apparently Spain doesn't even trade that much with China.
contedicavour
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Interesting idea. The US can already block export of Spain's S80 SSK class since it is an adapted Scorpene with US systems aboard. Beyond that, the US can hardly hit economically (for example, trade boycotts) Spain without hitting the whole European Union. For the moment it's more Spain that's buying US systems (such as new Aegis for F100 class) than the other way around.
I wonder to what extent Spain is ready to irritate the US since relations are already very poor since Aznar's defeat and the foreign policy decisions of the new prime minister Zapatero.
cheers
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
If Spain is so heavily reliant on US military technology, it would be very foolish to annoy Washington. But I think that the US could target trade to Spain - at the least direct shipments to Spain/Spanish companies.
I don't think Zapatero is especially "anti-US", just anti the war in Iraq.
contedicavour
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Well if the US Congress adopted trade sanctions against Spanish companies or products made in Spain, the EU would have to fight back by imposing sanctions of its own. From a trade perspective the EU is one block.
I guess only more specific actions such as refusing access to the US to top employees of Navantia could be considered small enough as not requiring a EU reaction.
Regarding Zapatero's foreign policy, he is clearly in a position hostile to Bush's and that goes beyond Iraq, as Zapatero's warm relations with Chavez, Argentina and other hard left Latin American countries prove.
cheers
I guess only more specific actions such as refusing access to the US to top employees of Navantia could be considered small enough as not requiring a EU reaction.
Regarding Zapatero's foreign policy, he is clearly in a position hostile to Bush's and that goes beyond Iraq, as Zapatero's warm relations with Chavez, Argentina and other hard left Latin American countries prove.
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Grand Danois
Entertainer
Trade sanctions wouldn't be the tool. It is ToT and Spanish export of military platforms with US components and licensed technology that the US could veto.
contedicavour
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I agree with you but why would the US Congress stop lucrative sales of high tech equipment to what remains a NATO ally ? With the risk that the future FFG class that will replace the Santa Maria / OHP could rely on non US equipment (Thales for example). This would be a sanction that would hurt more in the US than in Spain.
cheers
Grand Danois
Entertainer
I think it would depend on politics in Washington - what takes priority.
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
Then that doesn't explain why European states don't sell weapons to Taiwan, when they could make a mint. I don't buy the idea they actually agree with China's position, despite what they may say diplomatically.
Either China (and the US) could hurt states individually, because other EU states may not want to get involved, or the US is restrained in how it manages other countries - especially given Spain doesn't rely on China like it does the US for arms sales.
contedicavour
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Well, said in another way : China scares the s__t out of the EU countries because China's government still decides the nationality of companies winning just about any contract. If for example France sells a Scorpene to Taiwan, bye bye Airbus, Alcatel, Sagem, Alstom (TGV), etc etc.
The US doesn't scare anyone seriously in the EU because it isn't the US government who decides whether Delta buys Boeing or Airbus or whether Bell buys telcom equipment from Alcatel-Lucent or from Huawei for instance.
cheers
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
From what I've been told, Spain has relatively few dealings with China and could make plenty of money from a Taiwanese sale to cover any potential loss.
Anyway, the point I'm making is that if the US really doesn't want Venezuela to get this capability it has means at its disposal to limit their options.
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Of course, the Venezuallians can use the subs with the subs-launched sea-ground missiles, targetted against US territory, as a detterent power . Some big leap in West Hemisphere strategy may occure in such case... Also the crew might be gradually prepeared by the Russian stuff during the fraternal joint exersises .
As a possibility should be recommended Amur-950 design - 1000 t deadweight mini-submarine with 6 torpedo or missiles in standard location and 10 Club 300 km range sea-to-ground missiles in VLSs with salvo capability. AIP - hydrogen battaries as an option. 18 crewmen stuff (not so much considering its capability).
According to rumors, the Indos also want 2 subs like those.
As a possibility should be recommended Amur-950 design - 1000 t deadweight mini-submarine with 6 torpedo or missiles in standard location and 10 Club 300 km range sea-to-ground missiles in VLSs with salvo capability. AIP - hydrogen battaries as an option. 18 crewmen stuff (not so much considering its capability).
According to rumors, the Indos also want 2 subs like those.
Spain haven’t the same level of deals with China than other countries, although
it’s a growing market for Spanish products and a “promise land” for any country with something to sold.
Selling subs to Taiwan would be a good business now but a disaster for future business with continental China. Even France and other like Germany or Netherlands have learned it.
France has compensate the sell, years ago, of frigates and Mirages to Taiwan with a lot of technical support in defence technology to China…
Spain has had a lot of problems with the sell of ships and planes to Venezuela. The contract for a dozen of CN-235/295 was finally deleted by the burden of substitute all the US stuff without increasing too much the cost.
The 8 “patrol boats” deal (4 OPV and 4 corvettes) go ahead, but nearly so important is the value of the weapon systems provided by MBDA & Thales as the building of the vessels in Spanish shipyards…
Is difficult to imagine the sell of up to 9 SSK to Venezuela (2 to 4 seems a more plausible figure) but I think that S-80 is out of question (too much USA stuff inside). More logical seems Scorpene, after all is a French-Spanish project and the revenues would be quite a lot for every country no matter who finally get the contract.
But, after all, I think that Spain will avoid be involved in such affair before some de-icing occur in USA-Venezuela relations (¿post-Bush?).
Regards
it’s a growing market for Spanish products and a “promise land” for any country with something to sold.
Selling subs to Taiwan would be a good business now but a disaster for future business with continental China. Even France and other like Germany or Netherlands have learned it.
France has compensate the sell, years ago, of frigates and Mirages to Taiwan with a lot of technical support in defence technology to China…
Spain has had a lot of problems with the sell of ships and planes to Venezuela. The contract for a dozen of CN-235/295 was finally deleted by the burden of substitute all the US stuff without increasing too much the cost.
The 8 “patrol boats” deal (4 OPV and 4 corvettes) go ahead, but nearly so important is the value of the weapon systems provided by MBDA & Thales as the building of the vessels in Spanish shipyards…
Is difficult to imagine the sell of up to 9 SSK to Venezuela (2 to 4 seems a more plausible figure) but I think that S-80 is out of question (too much USA stuff inside). More logical seems Scorpene, after all is a French-Spanish project and the revenues would be quite a lot for every country no matter who finally get the contract.
But, after all, I think that Spain will avoid be involved in such affair before some de-icing occur in USA-Venezuela relations (¿post-Bush?).
Regards
What kind of missiles? And where would he shoot them off to? Whatever cruise missile attack this guy could make would be returned 1,000 fold. The Yank public would go ape and we would bomb Venezuela back to about 1600 AD.
No, the ability to operate an advanced SSK fleet in the Hemisphere would be threat enough. There would be no need to make a suicidal attack on the American mainland. And nothing will matter when Bush leaves. Chavez has pursued a anti-American policy because its popular with the masses of his people and nobody cares what the facts are. I mean many of these people are illiterate peasants who never once read a history book and would look at you blankly if you told them the class warfare and corruption that has decimated Latin countries stems from the culture and traditions of Spanish Empire. Its far easier to blame the Yankee gringos and oil companies.
And the entire time this guy is doing his, "my buddy Fidel" act he is amassing more and more personal power and following an economic course that is chasing International business away.
1)I speak about a deterence. If after eventual US-strike against Venezuella soil it would be even the limited possibility of counter-strike against US cities, it could prevent bloody war like Iraq war or Belgrad bombing. I think, an average American wants peace, isnt so?
2) I meant Club sublaunched missiles with 400 kg warhead and 300 km range
aimed against ground targets, but antiship variants of the same are also very effective (in mean of 'peace-keeping'), and anti-submarine version is especially recomended if we speak about hundreds US N-subs around...
We dont have "hundreds of N-subs". We have about 53 SSNs, 14 SSBNs, and 4 converted SSBNs to SSGNs. Just one SSGN could deliver 153 TLCMs and most of our SSNs can fire at least 12. Add to that the immense striking power of our surface fleet. Chavez would be out of his mind to even consider launching such weapons at us, even if he could.
Iraq? Belgrade? What does that have to do with anything? Chavez needed something to deflect criticism from himself and unify his own people. So he created this mini-Drama with America. 99% of Americans dont even know where Venezuela is and dont care. That would change should Chavez openly support terrorism. So far he has just flirted with it, swapping spit with the likes of Saddam, Fidel, and Qaddafi. Boy, Chavez really surrounds himself with Icons of freedom and human rights doesn't he?
nfloorl: One would think that eventually the Venezuelan people would tire of this guys stunts and elect someone who will actually improve their lives. But Venezuela isn't exactly a rock solid base of Democracy and human beings in general are so simple many automatically believe a Politician when he tells them something they want to hear. Its far easier blaming a super power for problems then it is your own people and leadership ,And, far safer. Most of all when the Police are around.
Before you start drawing comparisons between Venezuela, Iraq, and Belgrade, you should stick your nose in a history book and be prepared to defend your comparison. Most people cant even go back 6 months in history let alone the 14 years of Saddams defiance and obstruction of the International community.