So far no oil company has even agreed to go there. Its extremly expensive and will only generate profits in many many years. The oil is also very low quality, almost like tar. So this entire operation is another pipe dream from him.
That's why I also posted this...
Both tanker and cargo vessels are traveling to and from Novorossiysk and other ports day and night. Turkish, Greek, and Malaysian-flagged tankers are included. Activity can also be observed in the Sea of Azov, including traffic to and from the port of Berdyansk. So, in essence, has the shadow fleet been attacked? Yes. However, this has not made a significant dent in activity, at least not yet.Where exactly do you see any illegal action? Please elaborate. It becomes illegal when we lose. Before that its risk management.
Look this tanker here for example, got neutralized by a single drone, another one followed. That alone escalated the risk to the point that shipping companies avoid russia.
As for the terminal, its still closed by today. The image is from November.
As for now, all terminals at Novorossiysk are closed.
I checked, this is all tankers in the black sea at the moment. Looks good for me:
View attachment 54153
So oil transport through black sea is down by 100% as for today.
And thats why attacking those tankers was so important. Shipholders are easily scared away by such things.
Thank you. So its important to keep pressure up.
In your world of fantasy.
I dont know amigo. Is it my fantasy that now oil platforms in caspian sea get attacked?
Maybe. Honestly, I don't know. If you look at the depth of Russian penetrations around Podoly and Kurilovka, it raises questions. Could there be a similar Russian penetration around Moskovka? I think so. It's just a question of having confirmation. I think the front line here is murky, and we're dealing with a large amount of fog of war. Looking at those "tentacles" one also has to point out that they aren't exactly sustainable in that form. So either they've already collapsed or they've broadened into some other shape. Yet they're still on the map for days. I think it's a case of lack of information.
lieber.westpoint.edu
Haha. An equivalent of this:
pipelineonline.ca
www.independent.co.uk
Not saying the pressure isn't real or the effects trivial but honestly my friend I think it might be best to not get your hopes up to high here. There piplinecand train deliverys are not effected here and if push comes to shove. It is unlikely china would allow there oil security to be affected here. What I mean by this is the idea of sinking enough transports does not nessesarly equate to a stoppage of shipping it could very well and Infact likely would lead to the convoy system and china has both the means and the motive to protect there interests. Tho doubt that is a action they would take unless it was deemed necessary. My guess is when it comes to striking third party assets to hurt Russia the Ukrainians might actually draw the line at china or indeed India or Turkey military naval assets.Looks like more oil tankers were attacked while unloading:
Ukraine war latest: Multiple oil tankers struck off Russian Black Sea coast
It came after Russia launched its heaviest air attack of 2026, killing four in strikes targeting Kyiv and Kharkiv
So Ukraine now takes out platforms, tankers and infrastructure. Russias oil infrastrcture is already crumbling and now the pressure rises
Is there good evidence the infrastructure is crumbling? These types of strikes by Ukraine against infrastructure targets have been ongoing for a couple of years now. The tanker strikes are new and there's potential there to disrupt shipping lanes. But refinery strikes aren't.Looks like more oil tankers were attacked while unloading:
Ukraine war latest: Multiple oil tankers struck off Russian Black Sea coast
It came after Russia launched its heaviest air attack of 2026, killing four in strikes targeting Kyiv and Kharkiv
So Ukraine now takes out platforms, tankers and infrastructure. Russias oil infrastrcture is already crumbling and now the pressure rises
I also suspect Ukraine is coordinating with western partners and carefully selecting which ships to strike. Remember India is a buyer of Russian oil and Indian artillery shells get delivered to Ukraine. I think it's the less reputable tankers flying flags of convenience that will be targeted, and it could lead to a shift in what ships are used.
I believe you are right tho the turkey incident does highlights that the risks of even a carefully coordinated effort. I think the risk is also higher with this type of strategy due to drone warfare and propaganda. There is a not insignificant risk that drone operations being independent and opportunistic by nature are probably harder to coordinate properly then big ticket weapon systems. And that lower level of officer or perhaps specialist? Calling the shots on what to hit or not may not be aware of the actual situation. Well it's not often discussed the importance and indeed difficulties in keeping a limited war limited are vital in warfar and often unrecognized in general
To what I bolded in your post. Trump apparently has some form of bromance with Putin that he does not share with Xi Jinping. If China were to escort vessels, I would imagine western nations would be shadowing the PLA Navy. This could possibly lead to many miscalculations that would deepen the conflict. Personally I think China would save themselves some grief and just buy more oil from the Middle East.
Well off topic that's a risky gamble to take, there is not much indication that Chana is going to let Ukraine dictate to china were china gets it's oil. That's the way the strikes will be presented by the Chinese (internally there is several reasons they would not like this and even some reasons they would like it as a chance to respond). After all they refused the sanctions they pay for the oil despite the threat of being sanctioned themselves it's not logical to think there going to let a few guys with drones stop them from collecting what they have paid for. It would also be extremely out of character for the current Chinese government give up it's interests due to military force especially from a country that does not pose a threat to it like Ukraine
I'm aware foreign national navy's are constantly monitoring movements of each other's naval vessels. While I'm sure they're alert to the movements of the vessel they're monitoring I doubt they really expect anything to untoward to happen as to upset the apple cart. Throw in a random drone strike on a tanker being escorted than perhaps I'd be wary of what happens next. At any rate I don't believe any of these scenarios happen anyways. I do believe though that Ukraine will continue to strike sanctioned dark fleet tankers.
I'm sure Ukraine will continue to hit tankers aswell I'm just not sure it's going to end n the result they hope for. Nor is it worth the cost as many have pointed out they could have taken the no energy facilities deal (and honoured it). The cost has already been imop much more damage to there energy and electric systems then the damage to the Russian economy via oil industries has gained them. Objectively tho if for Ukraine these strikes are it's only really viable way of possible "victory" then I can see there logic but it's also objectively failing if that was the intention. Or at the very least not wining hard enough or fast enough to alter the trajectory of the war