The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Some reactions to the “new plan”:

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Of course, there are also these guys, not without them:

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Amazingly, it seems that there is quite bit of “positive” feedback from more reasonable analysts. I am surprised to see that, frankly. Perhaps, most see now where this is heading if it keeps going. Will post a few more things later on.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
What Putins actually said in regard to the “plan”:

We see that, since the talks in Alaska, there’s been a certain pause on the American side. And we know this is connected to Ukraine’s de facto rejection of the peace plan proposed by President Trump. I believe that this is precisely why a new version appeared — essentially, a modernized plan now consisting of 28 points.

We have this document. We received it through existing channels of communication with the American administration. I believe that it, too, could serve as the basis for a final peace settlement. But it has not been discussed with us in any substantive way. And I can guess why.

The reason, I believe, is the same — the U.S. administration has so far failed to secure Ukraine’s approval. Ukraine is against it.
It seems that Ukraine and its European allies still harbor illusions and continue to dream of dealing a strategic defeat to Russia on the battlefield. I think this position is driven not so much by a lack of competence (I won’t get into that right now), but more likely by a lack of objective information about the actual situation on the battlefield.


Source: In his first public comments, Putin says Trump’s 28-point peace plan wasn’t discussed ‘substantively’ with Moscow but could serve as ‘basis for a final peace settlement’ — Meduza

He clearly expects a rejection from Ukraine, as well as Euros. He probably isn’t wrong. My question is: what are the expectations from the Russian side here? Are they supposed to accept it, as it is clearly expected from Ukraine? Is it, as Putin suggests, something to be accepted by the Ukrainian side and then negotiated further with the Russians (more concessions)? There is no sufficient clarity on what the expectations entail at this point. What if Ukraine agrees and Russia rejects? They are pressing on and, like I said above, in my opinion, things are going to get progressively worse for Ukraine as time goes by. There are no silver linings here, just grim reality.

I asked at least a couple of times in the last few post about what people think the/an alternative is and don’t see any ideas being thrown around. I also asked what if this is as good as it gets? This is a very serious question. It does not appear that many considering this to be the actual case. I have no idea why. Like Mr Tenzer I cited above, some believe there can be no peace plan with Russia. Some still believe that it ends when Russia leaves all Ukrainian territory:


The general attitude towards her remark appears to be “she has more balls than most manly politicians”. I’d call it amateur and shortsighted, to put it mildly.

Then there is this idea of “keep bleeding Russians” that orgs like ISW keep insisting on:

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Do Ukrainians not bleed in the process? It is obvious that they are taking heavy casualties, often probably equal or (likely) higher than the Russians during the attempts to stabilize the front. One cannot have it both ways, this much should be clear to any reasonable person.

There is also this idea of providing Ukraine with long-range strike capabilities with no limitations (Tomahawks?). Ok, let’s do that. Then what? Russia has been pounding Ukraine for years now and Ukraine is still able to produce, repair, fight, etc. No one can provide even a remotely close amount of missiles, whatever they may be, to inflict more meaningful damage to a much bigger country with a lot more depth in… well, in everything. Russia is not even half mobilized, which is another factor people dismiss for whatever reason. I just fail to find a way to follow this thought process.

There are other ideas, many completely ridiculous. My question is, again, what is next? What happens if Ukraine literally fails and in shambles? What do we do? Is there such a contingency in the calculations?

On the other hand, however unlikely, what happens if the Russian forces start to crumble and there is a repeat of mid- to late 2022? Is there a contingency for that unfolding and everything that it may bring along?

Some are back to the sacrificing their own children agenda in 3 to 4 years:

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It’s like we made a(nother) full circle now, still lacking any strategy. So let’s prepare for war “in 3 to 4 years”, but what is of Ukraine?

Of course, there is also the “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine” nonsense. Tusk now adds Poland since it has been mentioned in the “plan”:

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Again, I fail to follow the thought process here. Unless one has the capabilities to sustain the Ukrainian fight, one does not get to choose what is decided and who gets to participate in the decision making. This is trivial stuff a child could process (perhaps, children face this reality on the daily basis, so it becomes a trivial understanding of the reality?). Of course, one can choose dignity over all else and go with that. Hardly admirable or worthy of respect in this case. Dumb, sure, but what else is new?

Anyway, some thoughts over a beer from a semi-comfortable chair (I am not much different from the other guys!).

Side note from an unexpected angle:

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Gotta be buying some brownie/political points from someone. Not sure where he is getting his numbers from either since even Zelensky assessed it as a “million-man army”, which was an exaggeration and probably included everyone wearing (or entitled to) any kind of uniform in Ukraine.
 

crest

Member
I don't think the no n.a.t.o troops clause the way it is written will pass as it would still allow NATO member states to be present. Along with security guarantees that looks alot like NATO in all but name. Considering British and French wish to put troops in Ukraine as soon as the ink is dry. from Russia's point of view this does nothing to solve there fundamental issues and cause for war.

I also don't think the de facto Russian recognition is enough well Russia may not actually be able to change that at least in countries there not at war with, I'm sure they won't accept the part that allows another country to dictate were the Russian army can or cannot be placed on territory Russia considers it's own. Especially with the clause that if it does the treaty is void.

According to how it's written legally a country that doesn't recognise the territory as truly Russian only Russian occupied Ukraine (de facto as opposed to de jour), could enter that territory in support of Ukrainian partisans or peacekeeping or even just position a army aggressively on the boarder and if Russia responds all sanctions are installed again and all recognition is lost. Conveniently there is also a large Ukraine army with several NATO member states right there and no peace treaty Infact they would all consider Russia to be occupying a alies countries territory with no probation against them taking it back. This peace plan allows that possibility.

There is other issues ith the proposal but I think those alone are enough to sink it at least from the Russian side. I think Putin considering his legal background isn't going to sign anything unless it's iron clad legally speaking in addressing Russia's security concerns over Ukraine. It's no secret that Russian trust in the intentions of the west has almost completely evaporated

That's not to say it can't be the starting point of negotiations but there is almost no chance of them going anywhere if the intent of the peace plan isnt to resolve the fundamental reason the war was started. It's also naive to think at this point the war will stop untill that issue is resolved in one way or another. That boat has already been sunk.

The boarders may be debatable but I don't think the military potential in Ukraine is. And from this proposal it doesn't look like the side that is currently lossing is willing to accept the other side's basic position that ukraine will not in any way be a military threat to Russia. Expecting Russia to suddenly decide that there security concerns are no longer a issue after 4 years of war because the main financer of the war against them considers it to expensive and is willing to stop it's support for the war if Russia also gives up it's reason for the war is unrealistic
It's also unrealistic to ignore that ukraine has a say in this, true they won't be going against the United States so long as the arms and money flow. And it is in there interest to take any deal they can to end a war they are lossing. You can't ignore that there is still a large and militant faction that is not going to take any peace deal well if they regard it as loss for Ukraine. And that Is a security issue for both Ukraine and Russia

It's Just my two cents but this doesn't seem like a serious attempt at a lasting peace.
It's a plan that honestly seems to only solve the problems America has with the war and somehow manages to demand both countries leave there fundamental issues unresolved and make reparations to the u.s in order to do so. It's quite odd in that respect.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Sumy area.

Russian drones double-tap either a howitzer or a decoy. It's being claimed as an FH-70.


Russian drones hit the village of Velikaya Chernechina, relatively close to the front lines.


Russian Courier UGVs have reportedly shown up in Sumy region. This one is carryring RPO-A thermobaric rockets.


Russia has put out some footage of DPRK EOD working with Russian kit in Kursk region. We see Uran-6 and Stalker UGVs.


Kharkov area.

Russian forces are still pushing forward in Volchansk. They've taken the last industrial structures to the south, and are pushing east-ward into the last suburbs. They've also taken Tsegel'noe, and are now approaching Volch'ye.


Russian TOS strikes on the treelines near Volchansk.


3 Ukrainian POWs allegedly taken near Volchansk, and with them a Ukrainian civilian. The post claims the civilian was helping Ukrainian soldiers, and will also be taken in for questioning. However in the video his hands aren't bound.


Russian drone defense teams from battlegroup north.


Kupyansk area.

North of Kupyansk, the village of Dvurechenskoe has fallen. Meanwhile on the left shore of the Oskol Ukraine counter-attacked east of Peschanoe, confirming their control of that village, and retaking some countryside. Inside Kupyansk and north of it back and forth fighting continues without decisive results. Ukrainian forces are counter-attacking.


Russian drone strikes near Kupyansk. One hits a Ukrainian M113 near one of the crossings south of Kupyansk, one hits a BMP-1 on the side of the road (possibly immobilized), 1 hits an Ural truck, 2 hit a GAZ-66, the same one I think, 6 SUV/pickups are hit, and 1 KAMAZ truck. It's interesting that in some of the clips you can see other vehicles, already disabled. Ukrainian forces in Kupyansk may not be fully encircled, but their logistics certainly are in bad shape. Some sources suggest that this may have been a single large column trying to reach the crossing to Kupyansk-Uzlovoy.


Russia hits a Ukrainian engineering vehicle (up-armored tractor) at the same crossig point as above. It's unclear if it was trying to cross or was there to do work.


Apparently a Russian drone hitting some Ukrainian infantry bunched up near a building, by the side of the road. This is Kupyansk area allegedly, but I couldn't find an obvious building to match this on google earth.


Russian drones hit 5 Ukrainian BMP-1s reportedly on the northern side of Kupyansk-Uzlovoy along the rail way.


Ukrainian artillery striking the bread factory in Kupyansk.


Russian drones targeting Ukrainian floats on the Oskol river.


Russian 288th Arty Bde operating Kub loitering munitions, Kupyansk area.


Russian sources report Courier UGVs being used in Kupyansk. This is one of those projects that started with volunteers, but it's getting wider acceptance.


Oskol front.

Russian forces have broken through south-west past Borovskaya Andreevka towards Novoplatonovka. Russian forces are trying to bypass stubborn Ukrainian defenses in Zagryzovo.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Krasniy Liman area.

Russian forces have retaken Yampol', and a chunk of the northern shore of the Severskiy Donets river. Russia also pushed through the forest, south-east of the lakes, to the road Krasniy Liman - Seversk. The grey area inside Liman is also expanding. Russian forces also pushing north-west out of Srednee, towards Koroviy Yar and have taken Novoselovka. North-east of Liman Russian forces have taken Stavki and a chunk of fields along the road west of it.


Allegedly a Russian SpN team from the 16th Bde assaulting a Ukrainian strong point near Krasniy Liman.


A now rare Ukrainian AT105 Saxon was hit near Krasniy Liman.


Russian air defense teams in the Serebryanskaya woods covering the rear of the Krasniy Liman axis.


Russian strikes on the powerplant near Slavyansk, in Nikolaevka, and Slavyansk itself.


Russian drone strikes on Kramatorsk. They may be targeting energy infrastructure.


Seversk area.


Russia has gained quite a bit of ground around Seversk. From the north they've taken Platonovka, threatening the last good road into town. From the north-east they've taken the last set of heights north of the ponds. From the south and east they've broken into the town, and are near the center (it's a small town). From the south they've gained more ground in the fields eliminating virtually all Ukrainian positions there. Most of Zvanovka is also in Russian hands, with only a few of the northern houses in Ukraine's.


Russian assault teams have been spotted inside Seversk.


Ukrainian Grad getting hit on the Seversk axis.


Konstantinovka area.


North-east of Konstantinovka Russian forces have pushed forward long the rail line again, and have grabbed another treeline pushing to the outskirts of Markovo. South-east of Konstantinovka Russian forces have expanded their presence in the town's outskirts, and have taken Ivanopol'ye. They've also taken the rest of the rail line up to the town and penetrated deeper into Konstantinovka. The Ukrainian salient south of Predtechino is gone entirely. Ukraine did recapture a couple of positions along the road north of Predtechino, it might be that counter-attack we have below with tanks getting hit.


Russia hits allegedly a Ukrainian M-80 IFV north of Konstantinovka.


Allegedly a Ukrainian armored counter-attack towards Predtechino from the north-west, getting hit by Russian drones. Note these do appear to be Ukrainian tanks and we've had a few examples of Ukrainian armor hit in the Konstantinovka area recently.


Russian drone strike on a Ukrainian position north of Chasov Yar. The position gets figured out because a Russian drone spots a generator through a window in a nearby building.


Some footage of the ruins of Konstantinovka.


Pokrovsk-Mirnograd area.

North of Pokrovsk Russian forces have pushed into the countryside immediately north, and also westward along the road out of Rodinskoe. Northwest of Pokrovsk Russian forces have pushed towards Grishino taking some more fields. West of Pokrovsk Russian forces continue to gain ground between the two rail lines and on the far western flank they've entered Mezhevoe, which is apparently renamed to Novopodgorodnoe. Inside the pocket Russian forces have taken almost all of southern Mirnograd, and are gaining ground in northern Mirnograd from the east and north. The area south-west of Mirnograd has mostly fallen to Russia. North of the area, Dorozhnoe is contested again and Russia has recaptured some ground near Fedorovka. In Rodinskoe Russian forces have counter-attacked and regained some ground. Shakhovo is now a grey area with Ukrainian forces withdrawing and Russian forces holding most of the village. Russia is also pushing on Sofievka, again. A significant grey area has developed south-west of Rodinskoe, north of Pokrovsk. Russian forces are in the area, but their control and consolidation isn't confirmed.


Russia hits a Ukrainian BMP-2 near Grishino.


Russia hits a BvS-10 near Rodinskoe.


Russian Tornado-S strike on the northern outskirts of Pokrovsk.


Russian bomb strikes on Mirnograd continue, including a FAB-3000.


Ukrainian bomb strike on the road from Selidovo to Pokrovsk. It's the main road for Russia to insert troops into southern Pokrovsk, and the one we saw Russian vehicles on before.


Russian flag raising over the mining complex in the southern part of Mirnograd.


As Russian forces consolidate control over Pokrovsk footage starts to emerge from Russian forces walking the streets. We can gauge the state of the town.


A Russian drone operator spots a person, identifies them as a civilian, and then avoids them. This is Grishino north of Pokrovsk.


An interesting video of a couple of individuals captured by Russian forces, allegedly Ukrainian "penal soldiers" that changed into civilian clothings, hid their weapons, and spent their time looting homes.


Russian TOS-3 Dragon operating on the Pokrovsk axis. Note these tanks are being built on the T-80 chassis. There's no evidence of old chassis being cannibalized, suggesting that Russia has restarted T-80 chassis production.


Some shots of Russian vehicles on the roads around Pokrovsk.


Battle damage in Dobropol'ye. The town is getting hit regularly with gliding bombs and Shaheds.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Dnepropetrovsk area.

Russia has taken most of Novopavlovka, crossing the Volchya.


Russian forces continue the advance in a wide arc from Zaporozhye to southern Dnepropetrovsk region pushing in multiple areas between the Gaychur and Yanchur river. Russian forces have taken Danilovka, Veseloe, Nechaevka, Radosnoe, Zeleniy Gay, Rovnopol'ye, Yablokovo, and Volchye*. Ukraine counter-attacked retaking most of Danilovka. Russian forces have reached the Gaychur river here and are at the last major defenseline there. On the northern side Russian forces have pushed up to the Volchya river from the south, taking Orestopol', Volchye, and approaching Tikhoe. They've also taken Gay. Overall this direction is the most dynamic currently. Russia is gaining ground faster here then anywhere else.

*Volchye is not on google maps, but it's a hamlet south of Tikhoe, on the Volchya river, west of Orestopol'.


Russian drone strikes near Gulyaypole target an armored car, a SUV, and an ATV. As the front approaches the city, logistics have become compromised.


Battle damage is starting to accumulate in Gulyaypole. The town has been near the front lines for a while.


Zaporozhye.

Russian forces have gained more ground in Malaya Tokmachka. They're still inching forward, and the village may fall soon.


Russian drone srtikes on Ukrainian infantry near Stepnogorsk.


Russian Strela-10 operations in Zaporozhye region.


Dnepr front.

Rusian small boat on the Dnepr gets spotted by a Ukrainian observer drone and targeted by multiple FPVs. The occupants fire back with shotguns, and rifles. Surprisingly the boat survives, quite likely due to effective maneuvering by the driver.


Russian drone strikes on apparently a Ukrainian small boat, which they chase to the shore, and finish off with drone drops.


Russia's shortage of SAMs continues. We have an Osa SAM using the old version of the missile, and the naval version at that, from the ground TELAR. This actually leads to a strange situation where late-Soviet era SAMs run low, newer missiles get used like the new Strela missile, and also significantly older ones too. This SAM belongs to the Dnepr front forces.


Anti-drone netting on the streets of Kherson. There are more civilians visible then I would have thought.


Black Sea/Crimea.

Ukraine hits Russian UAV basing facilities in Crimea. They normally contain Orion-S drones.

 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Strikes.

Russian strikes on Kiev. Targets include TEC-5. In at least one case Ukrainian air defenses hit a residential building. At least one Iskander missile was successfully intercepted.


Russia hit Belaya Tserkov, Kiev region, hitting a combined heat and powerplant.


Russia has apparently started using Shaheds as FPV drone carriers. We have our first sighting in Chernigov region.


Russia hit Sumy city with allegedly a Tsirkon missile. Target unclear but the impact was in the industrial section of town.


Russia hit Zarechnoe village, Sumy region, near Konotop, with Shaheds. The target allegedly is the 20th EW Bde.


Russia hit Kharkov. Targets reportedly include energy infrastructure.


Russia hit a gas compressor station and a substation in Limanovka, Kharkov region.


Russia hit Berestyn, Kharkov region with Iskanders and Shaheds. It's possible they were targeting local gas infrastructure.


Russia hit Chuguev.


Russia hit Orel'ka rail station, Kharkov region.


Russia hit Lozovaya, Kharkov region. Targets reportedly include heating infrastructure.


Russia hit Pavlograd.


Russia hit Vasil'kovka, Dnepropetrovsk region. They've been hitting this area a lot lately.


Russia hit Dnepropetrovsk. Targets include the rail station, a TV center, and a radio tower.


It appears Russian caught out a Neptune cruise missile TEL in Dnepropetrovsk region and hit it. The TEL was likely involved in one of the recent strikes.


Russia hit Starokonstantinovka airbase with Kinzhals and at least one missed by ~144m. It's possible it was intercepted and downed, or EW managed to do something to the guidance, or the missile has accuracy issues.


Russia hit Cherkasy, targeting Cherkasy city, Uman' and Zvenigorodovka.


Russia hits Odessa, targets unclear. Links represent at least two separate waves of strikes.


Ukrainian air defenses downing Russian drones over houses. The drones will likely fall in residential areas.


Russia hit Il'chevsk, Odessa region. Targets unclear, but presumably the port.


Russia hit a solar powerplant near Starokozach'ya, Odessa region.


Russia hit the Izmail port, setting a gas tanker on fire and hitting port infrastructure. They also hit the Etalon substation.


Russia hit Ternopol'. They targeted the Orion radio-electronics factory, but at least one cruise missile also hit a residential building close to the factory, causing massive damage. 26 civilians are reported killed, 91 wounded. Russian sources speculate that the issue was incorrectly input terrain data, that caused the missile to hit the building.


Power outagse are reported in Vinnitsa.


Russia hit L'vov. Targets include storage facilities and a mail facility. Blackouts are reported.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ukraine intercepting multiple Russian Shahed drones.


It appears the Ukrainian Patriot battery that used to be at Zhulyani airport, is now at the former 6th Training Ground near Kiev.


Ukrainian MANPADS team apparently downing a Russian cruise missile.


Rear-view cameras have started appearing on Shahed drones, presumably linked to some sort of evasion flight pattern programming.


A look at a large Russian drone launching facility in Orlov region. It's apparently large enough to house 500 drones, with 15 hangars and 93 "garages" for drones.


Ukraine targeted Voronezh with ATACMS missiles and it appears they were intercepted. Russian MoD then released footage of them hitting two M270s that were allegedly involved in the strike but the footage is old, it's from last year. The start of the video appears to be a real shot of them spotted, but the video of the strike is the inserted old footage.


Ukraine hit a substation in Kursk region, causing blackouts.


Ukraine hit Belgorod region, striking the shopping center in Koroche. Also blackouts are reported, implying power grid infrastructure may have been hit.


Ukraine hit the Zuguev powerplant in Zugres, Donetsk region, causing blackouts. Ukraine has recently started targeting Donetsk region powergrid objects similar to how they were hitting Russia proper.


Ukraine hit the Chaykino substation in Makeevka, causing blackouts in Donetsk and Makeevka. Ukraine also hit the metallurgical plant in Donetsk, with one drone falling on a local school.


Ukraine hit power grid substations in the city of Samara and the Novokuybyshev oil refinery near Samara.


Ukraine hit the Saratov oil refinery.


Ukraine hit an oil terminal in the Novorossiysk port. It appears to have caused substantial damage. Nonetheless loading of ships resumed after a couple of days. This has been a pattern for long range strikes against infrastructure by both sides. The damage tends to cause a disruption, but not destruction of the target. Only many repeated and massive strikes work.


Ukraine hit a Russian S-400 position from reportedly the 1537th SAM Rgt near Novorossiysk with drones. 4 TELs and 2 radars were hit.


Russian sources report the Novovoronezhskaya NPP got hit by Ukrainian drones.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Ukraine hit Volgograd. A residential building was damaged.


Ukrainian An-196s hits an oil refinery in Orsk, near Orenburg.


Ukrainian inbounds downed over Orel, allegedly one of them is the new Flamingo cruise missile.


We have our first video of the launch of the new long range Neptune cruise missile, Ukrainian. This might be the same TEL we saw hit above.


And apparently a video of Ukraine launching the new Flamingo cruise missile.


Russian air defense teams firing.


Another Russian Yak-52B modified for drone defense with electro-optics.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Interesting bits.

A Ukrainian drone interceptor attempts to engage a Russian Mi-28 helicopter over Russia. The outcome is unclear.


A destroyed Ukrainian Raven SAM, I think it's our first of the type.


A Russian Chekan armored truck, still operating in Ukraine. It's one of the legacies of the "Wagner" mercenaries participation in this war.


Russian forces with a captured Bergenpanzer 2 ARV.


A Russian BRDM-2MS in the war. This is a pre-war export-oriented project, but with plenty of old BRDM-2s in storage, and an armored repair plant that can put them out, this might become a more common option. In the second link we have an unmodernized BRDM-2 with anti-drone armor.


An interesting night photo of a Russian Orion-S, with Kornet-D ATGMs for munitions. The Kornet-D is known for having a range of ~10kms, which is very hard to make use of as a ground-launched ATGM, but is much more impactful when launched from a slow UCAV.


Russia has started using either Shahed-101 or 107 drones. Presumably they're testing the type to see if they want to include it in their mix.


Another look at the Ulan buggies being delivered to Russian armed forces.


Another case of Russian pack animals as logistics. Use remains rare but strangely persistent. There's still no good explanation.


Ukraine has been doing some work in Nikolaev, installing a set of barriers against unmanned boats, similar to what Russia has done, and putting in a pontoon bridge as a backup to one of the main bridges. The concern may be that Russia can blow the bridge with an unmanned drone.


A Ukrainain Humvee with a mine trawl. Mine trawls are essential equipment in this war, and it's an area where Ukraine at least in principle should have an advantage. Russia doesn't even have mine trawls for MRAPs or BTRs. And the BMP mine trawl was never produced in large numbers.


Some good photos of Ukrainian Mirage and F-16 fighters. Note both are loaded up with AAMs, presumably to hunt Russian inbounds.


We have our first sighting of the Terrahawk Paladin AAA in Ukraine. It's being used by the 156th SAM regiment. Systems like these are in principle a good fit for Ukraine's needs against the hundreds of Shaheds Russia sends in, but the quantities needed are a couple of orders of magnitude greater.


Reportedly Ukraine is about to receive their first Skyranger-35 AAA on a Leo-1 chassis.


Reportedly Ukraine has received all 99 AS-90 howitzers that the UK still had to hand over. The UK also gave up 28 M109 howitzers, and 54 L119 towed guns.


Another KIA exchange took place, this time 30 for 1000.

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Thanks for the comprehensive update, Feanor.


While UA and USA discuss the plan, Reuters posted an alleged Euros’ counterproposal to the 28-point plan. Of course, and not unexpectedly, the plan is a nonstarter for the Russians simply due to the UA ability to join NATO and a possibility of presence of western troops in the country. Ceasefire along the current frontline should have been understood to be a nonstarter as well by now.

The increase of the UA forces from 600K to 800K is cute though. Might as well change it 20 million. What's the difference?

Demand of “robust security” guarantees can be satisfied by the Euros themselves. Demanding a mirror-like Article 5 guarantees from the US is a joke. This also risk to expose the Article 5 as a noncommittal if things were to turn sour one day and no one were willing to put their boots to protect Ukraine, which is pretty much a certainty, in my opinion. Be careful what you wish for is the case here.


Also, no one still offered their view of an alternative to a bad peace offer currently on the table.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Thanks for the comprehensive update, Feanor.


While UA and USA discuss the plan, Reuters posted an alleged Euros’ counterproposal to the 28-point plan. Of course, and not unexpectedly, the plan is a nonstarter for the Russians simply due to the UA ability to join NATO and a possibility of presence of western troops in the country. Ceasefire along the current frontline should have been understood to be a nonstarter as well by now.

The increase of the UA forces from 600K to 800K is cute though. Might as well change it 20 million. What's the difference?
The difference is obviously that it's better then Trump's bad plan. :D

All jokes aside, prewar Ukraine with much more population and intact infrastructure maintained ~250k in their armed forces and another ~100k in other state paramilitary agencies (mostly in the National Guard). With far less population and an economy in tatters, the only way Ukraine will hit the limit on a 600k military during peacetime is if they're pumped full of foreign cash for the explicit purpose of maintaining a large Ukrainian army, presumably to fight Russia.

On a different note, it appears Ukraine is done trying to reopen lines to Mirnograd. Ukrainian sources are pretending that Russia hasn't taken Pokrovsk or encircled Mirnograd, to the point it's almost an eerie alternate reality. Ukraine is no longer advancing in Rodinskoe, quite the opposite Russia is pushing them out of the last areas they still hold there. And inside the cauldron, the southern and middle nodes have fallen. Remaining Ukrainian forces are primarily focused in the northern half of Mirnograd, with Russian forces now advancing into the town from the west, as well as the north, east, and south-east. Aside from the one video of a ~platoon surrendering, we haven't had any footage of mass surrenders. We have had a few interviews on camera with Ukrainian POWs allegedly taken in Pokrovsk or Mirnograd, but given the quantities of POWs Russia has taken during this war, it would be easy to fake this. I think it's reasonable to assume that relatively few Ukrainian troops are actually trapped in the cauldron. Fighting in the area of the former salient northward has quieted down. Russia has consolidated in Shakhovo, but isn't currently trying to break out northward again. Instead it seems Russia is more focused on Grishino and the rural areas north-west of Pokrovsk. This in principle makes sense, as it would allow them to push on Dobropol'ye from the south-west, the same way they did with Pokrovsk. All of this while the Zaporozhye direction remains thoroughly bad for Ukraine. Russia is currently reaching the Gaychur river the same way they were reaching the Yanchur river about a month ago.
 

Hoover

Member
The EU plan is nonsense, and Russia won´t agree to the alterations.
The European Union presented a 24-point peace plan for Ukraine

The EU will be lucky if they will be informed about the negotiations.
The Ukraine will try to make some improvements with the USA, and the last word has Putin. And in the end Trump and Putin will make an agreement, and the Ukraine will accept. There is no real chance for the Ukraine to continue their rightful fight without the support of the US.
 

SolarisKenzo

Well-Known Member
The EU plan is nonsense, and Russia won´t agree to the alterations.
The European Union presented a 24-point peace plan for Ukraine

The EU will be lucky if they will be informed about the negotiations.
The Ukraine will try to make some improvements with the USA, and the last word has Putin. And in the end Trump and Putin will make an agreement, and the Ukraine will accept. There is no real chance for the Ukraine to continue their rightful fight without the support of the US.
Your view is naive, the world is not so simple.
I guess it's difficult for a non-european to understand it, but you can't exactly ignore 500 million people.
Europe is supporting Ukraine with billions of euro every month, the EU currently hosts around 10 million displaced ukrainians.
They are not in a position to be a US or Russia peer (simply because we are not a federal state) but you can't just ignore the opinion of a Union that has, by the way, nuclear weapons.

US-Russia negotiations led to absolutely nothing until now and it's not "obvious" that those will end up exactly like the ones before.
EU has interest in trying to make those negotiations fail, that's why the european counterproposal is so clearly "unacceptable".

You also have to understand that the "Trump plan" is unacceptable according to europeans, so they are simply responding to an unacceptable proposal with an equal one.
 
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Hoover

Member
Oh, I am European. And I am watching how Europe is acting and how much influece it has on the conflict.
And no, it is not naive, but realistic.
From the frist day of the war "Europe" was divided into 3 fractions:
1. The ones who wanted to support the Ukraine at all costs
2. the ones who didn´t want to support Ukraine and tried to stop the efforts by the others
3. the ones who didn´t really care about the conflict

Europe on the diplomatic floor was a failure. There where no really peace plan attemps in the past 3,5 years. That blank space was filled by Trump. And why should Trump and Putin should take notice of Europe? Treump knows that without the US Ukraine will not be able to continue the fight.
Europa was anxious to implement really effective sanctions, anxiuos to take really military and diplomatic pressure on Russia.
Especially in Germany there were a strong fraction who were afraid of Russian nukes.
So, why do you think that the USA have to listen about European positions?
You are overstimateing the influence of the Europeans, I think.

Look at the 28 Points peace plan:
Kirill Dimitiyev gave the Russian 28 point plan (I call it a Russian request to surrender of the Ukraine) to Steve Witkoff and the plan was sold to the public as a Russian/US result of negotiations. Rubio hinself told, that the plan is a unique Russian request.

Of course the plan in the original version is inacceptable for Ukraine and Europe. And all changes regarding the annexion of the 5 Oblasts will be not accepted by Russia. Trump want a cease fire because he will doing Big Deals with Russia. So he tries to force the Ukraine to accept any plan, that Russia will accept, too.
Trump doesn´t care about Europe, morale or the Ukraine.

The only question in my opinion is, what will he doing if Russia denies any changes in the plan? If he stops the support Ukraine will collaps in a few weeks, due to loosing weapons, ammunitions, missing secret service informations and...morale.

And...still the supperter are not willing to assert the sanctions because of fear, that this will be an additional burden für the own economy.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
The world is not so simple.
I do agree with that, about who is being naive...

Did US ignore anyone while imposing tariffs on the EU? When US invaded Iraq? If US is invading Venezuela, have we decided to ignore that already?
Your reference to nuclear weapons, is that a nuclear threat? It seems that every time that Russia mentions nukes, it is a threat. Have we mentioned nuclear weapons?
Negotiations have led to nothing. Istanbul negotiations were US-Russia negotiations?
Yes, we have our own interests "in the fight", not Ukrainian interests.
That plan is not "unacceptable" to our interests, it's just that we don't like it. If there is a peace agreement it would be highly "politically incorrect" to deport all Ukrainians and to stop financing Ukraine. Can you think of any country Ukraine will have to get close to for that money?

Being European myself and all that...
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Look at the 28 Points peace plan:
Kirill Dimitiyev gave the Russian 28 point plan (I call it a Russian request to surrender of the Ukraine) to Steve Witkoff and the plan was sold to the public as a Russian/US result of negotiations. Rubio hinself told, that the plan is a unique Russian request.
IMG_2973.jpeg

IMG_2971.jpeg

The plan was accepted and promoted to be as a reasonable basis for negotiations by many rational people. Then the campaign to discredit the said plan began.


Europe does not get to sit at the table because they themselves are refusing to do so with the nonsense they propose.

Note that I almost never mention Canada. Why is that? Well, because no one cares about our opinion. Literally. We are as irrelevant as one can be. There is nothing we can offer either that would tilt anything one way or the other. Europe can, but they refuse to do so. Hence, they are on the sidelines. I doubt much will change now. It will be, at the end, Ukraine that will agree to the terms, now or months from now. Europe will have no say. They will be patting Zelensky on the back once it is over with. US will be picking pockets. I posted about exactly that not that long ago.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Meanwhile Russian forces have entered Gulyaypole from the east. It appears they intend to assault through from the north-east, instead of enveloping the town. While the outskirts are basically rural, the center of town does have a small dense urban core which should be quite defensible. Then again if Ukraine has manpower shortages, it could be easier for Russia to penetrate built up areas with infantry teams infiltrating.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
View attachment 53903

View attachment 53904

The plan was accepted and promoted to be as a reasonable basis for negotiations by many rational people. Then the campaign to discredit the said plan began.


Europe does not get to sit at the table because they themselves are refusing to do so with the nonsense they propose.

Note that I almost never mention Canada. Why is that? Well, because no one cares about our opinion. Literally. We are as irrelevant as one can be. There is nothing we can offer either that would tilt anything one way or the other. Europe can, but they refuse to do so. Hence, they are on the sidelines. I doubt much will change now. It will be, at the end, Ukraine that will agree to the terms, now or months from now. Europe will have no say. They will be patting Zelensky on the back once it is over with. US will be picking pockets. I posted about exactly that not that long ago.
Why NK, Iran and China are not screaming for a seat at the table?
Have they been providing less than Canada?
 
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