The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[vikingatespam]

Trump seems stunned by the Ukrainians' refusal to sign the $500B Rare Mineral Agreement without a written and detailed commitment from the US to provide military support.

Where was this announced ? The last I heard there was going to be a meeting in Riyad on Tuesday ?

 

[John Fedup]

Where was this announced ? The last I heard there was going to be a meeting in Riyad on Tuesday ?

Bizarre, what exactly is a written and detailed commitment from Trump really worth? Is there 500 billion dollars of rare earth resources in Ukraine?

 

[vikingatespam]

Bizarre, what exactly is a written and detailed commitment from Trump really worth? Is there 500 billion dollars of rare earth resources in Ukraine?

To clarify, I meant that the Ukrainians have announced firmly they will not sign without guarantees ?

 

[KipPotapych]

in the last couple days

This is not a serious talk.

I have seen that too, yesterday. Absolutely unbelievable! Every day it's more crazy.

I actually don’t think that is crazy at all. It’s not a “conventional” approach, but he is 100% correct, in my opinion, in saying that anyone would do what Russia is doing in the circumstances. All these fantasies of halting hostilities is not how things work. I really don’t understand where people are getting this idea from. Apply maximin pressure until the enemy is willing to either to come to terms or at least express their willingness to negotiate. In case of the latter, there is a choice of continuing/increasing the pressure or reducing it, depending on the circumstances and the desired goals. When I say “negotiate”, I mean negotiate the terms that you are proposing, not what the resisting party thinks should be negotiated.

For example, the Euro proposal, repeated by Zelensky, to start the ceasefire talks (that Russians are not necessarily interested in) the sides need to stop the aerial attacks, including missiles, bombs, long range drones, etc, while the war on the ground would keep raging on. Well, this is ridiculous because (only one example) the aforementioned bombs are the greatest advantage Russia has in their ground operations as well. Whether the intention is for the proposal to be outright rejected or the assumption is that everyone else is dumb enough to even consider it, that proposal is clearly a nonstarter. It would clearly be a demonstration of an existing weakness at this stage.

Trump seems stunned by the Ukrainians' refusal to sign the $500B Rare Mineral Agreement without a written and detailed commitment from the US to provide military support.

Everyone knows that not only this is an empty “deal”, but also a “trick”, perhaps, to tie the Americans to the resources located in the occupied territory and so on. To expect that people are stupid is a weird expectation. Even if it is Trump we are talking about.

To repeat again, United States’ ties to Ukriane have no advantage over United States’ even a workable relationship with Russia. One can take it in any way they want: security, resources, business, etc.

Note that the “rare earths” agreement went from we (Ukraine) will not sign it without security guarantees to no signing without future military assistance to, maybe, signing just to resume the conversation.

It's not that simple because a capitulation will be extremely dangerous for Europe. It's not clear whether Trump understands that or not. He doesn't understand how important an Ukrainian victory is for European countries. He thinks that UK and France are playing smart games and "are getting their money back" and so on with Ukraine. But Europe is going to do everthing to prevent a capitulation.

There is also a possibility that Trump doesn’t believe that the danger is as extreme as you suggest. And there is also a possibility that he is right.

Remember that in February 2022 everyone left Ukriane to hang expecting it to fold within mere weeks, if not days. No one sent troops, a no fly zone was outright rejected by everyone, and so on. There was no epic danger to Europe in the calculations, while the Red Army was believed to be much more capable, with thousands of pieces of various equipment at their disposal, etc.

Trump evaded the question about Russian pounding Ukraine because it's very embarrassing for him.

You are making things up. First, he didn’t evade the question but said that anyone would do the same. That I addressed above. I believe it also addresses the embarrassment part as well.

Zelensky and his colleagues know that they are going to receive enough support from their European partners to resist the Russian invasion another half year, more or less.

They also believed that they will get all the support from their European partners and the United States for the past three years. As long as it takes and whatever it takes. The American intel suggested that the Ukrainian forces have 6 to 8 months to resist Russian attacks before they experience severe (much worse than it is today) shortage of men (don’t quote me on the numbers because I am taking them out from memory and adding a month or two). That was three months ago? Earlier? What has changed since? My understanding is that nothing but Ukriane threw all their reserves (new brigades) into the grinder and offered money to recruit younger volunteers. The latter resulted in 10 or so thousand signing up, if I recall the reports correctly.

For Europe, the war in Ukraine is part of a larger war on Europe.

If that were the case, the response in 2022 would have been different. It’s been 3 years since and the only thing that changed is rhetoric: from this war will be decided on the battlefield to this war will end in negotiations.

Winning the war in Ukraine is essential to prevent that. Losing the war will make this danger highly likely.

Highly unlikely that this is a serious consideration. If the “highly likely” scenario was in the cards, the response would have been different.


I am going to conclude that this has been discussed previously numerous times with most, including myself, repeating the same thing with different wording (at best). Therefore, I am going to refrain from the future debate on the subject. Things have now changed and they will not be the same. Call it the world order or what have you. All that remains is the remains of Ukraine and yet to be formulated new security architecture in Europe. We shall see what is to come.

 

[KipPotapych]

To clarify, I meant that the Ukrainians have announced firmly they will not sign without guarantees ?

I believe they announced that they are ready to sign (the same announcement was made twice before though and twice the signing failed). It is the Americans that aren’t ready to do so now until their conditions are met.

 

[Fredled]

Sudzha:
Russian smeaked into Sudzha through a gas pipeline.
There were rumours that small Russian groups were fighting in Sudzha the day earlier.

Here is what Ukrainians say about the event:
Ukraine’s Airborne Assault Forces are on a mission to eliminate Russian sabotage and assault groups in the outskirts of Sudzha

It also means that a large gas pipeline going to the Sudzha terminal is empty and perhaps out of order.

There are also rumours of Ukrainian retreating (See feanor's post above).
Russian advance in the north of the Sudzha salient is, IMO, more the effect of Ukrainian retreat than active Russian assault.

No update on the encirclement attempt from the south of Sudzha. Maybe later today...
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Ukrainians hit Taganrog. Another target inside Russia, but closer and more linked to the front line than St Petersburg.
The target is not specified.
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Diplomacy:

This is what happens when someone appeases barbarians. More bombs, more aggression, more victims. Another tragic night in Ukraine

Andriy Yermak, during a Kyiv meeting with the National Security Advisor to the UK Prime Minister, Jonathan Powell

The discussion focused on the initial steps proposed by President Volodymyr Zelensky at the European Council in Brussels. These include silence in the sky and at sea: cessation of attacks on energy and civil infrastructure, as well as naval military operations, and the release of prisoners.
...
Special emphasis was placed on increasing military and financial support for Ukraine and European defense capabilities

Hungary intends to hold a referendum on Ukraine's future membership in the European Union. What I’d like to know would be the results of the referendum in the EU on the membership of Orban's Hungary.

Good question. link
What I would like to know also is how many Hungarians support Orban's pro-Russian policies...

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Where was this announced ? The last I heard there was going to be a meeting in Riyad on Tuesday ?

I mean the refusal to sign it in Washington DC. Let's see what they decide in Ryhad.
Ukrainians have announced that they were ready to sign it now.
According to Trump, Ukrainians are tough negotiators... for the rare Mineral Deal.

Bizarre, what exactly is a written and detailed commitment from Trump really worth?

He is the POTUS. You don't joke with agreements at this level. (Even if I suggested that they could do so in one post above. But I don't think it would be a good idea. Only if pressed to the extreme.)

he is 100% correct, in my opinion, in saying that anyone would do what Russia is doing in the circumstances.

In the current circumstances, a normal person at the power in Russia would stop the war immediately. This war in itself is insane. That's why I'm shocked by such comment.

In another circumstance, when a nation really need to win against another, then yes, it would make sens.
We shouldn't think that this war is normal.

Trump answered like this because he wanted to show that this reaction was normal and that it didn't mean at all that his peace intiiative is failing and that he doesn't have the slightest influence on Putin.
If he is not embarrassed now, he will be later.

For example, the Euro proposal, repeated by Zelensky, to start the ceasefire talks (that Russians are not necessarily interested in) the sides need to stop the aerial attacks, including missiles, bombs, long range drones, etc, while the war on the ground would keep raging on. Well, this is ridiculous because (only one example) the aforementioned bombs are the greatest advantage Russia has in their ground operations as well.

Nobody expects Putin to agree with conditions not advantageous to him. These are condition which are deemed necessary to materially enforce the ceasefire. If the ceasefire agreement says that aerial attacks can continue, it's, by definition, not a ceasefire.

Note that the “rare earths” agreement went from we (Ukraine) will not sign it without security guarantees to no signing without future military assistance to, maybe, signing just to resume the conversation.

I agree, And not just to resume conversation, but military aid as well.

To expect that people are stupid is a weird expectation. Even if it is Trump we are talking about.

There is also a possibility that Trump doesn’t believe that the danger is as extreme as you suggest. And there is also a possibility that he is right.

Remember that in February 2022 everyone left Ukraine to hang expecting it to fold within mere weeks, if not days. No one sent troops, a no fly zone was outright rejected by everyone, and so on. There was no epic danger to Europe in the calculations, while the Red Army was believed to be much more capable, with thousands of pieces of various equipment at their disposal, etc.

The failure by Europe to perceive the danger in 2022 doesn't mean there is no danger.
If you lived in the region, you would feel it.

In 2022, Europe, especially Germany had still cordial relations with Russia. Had Russia taken Ukraine in a matter of days or weeks, with short fighting and minimal casualties, the way they took Crimea, it would have been relatively acceptable. I mean, it would have been disapproved but not to the point of breaking all diplomatic and commercial relations with Russia.
However, after three years of savage destructions and killing and no restraint in the level of violence, and increased open threat to Europe, the danger is much more visible than it was prior 2022.

the only thing that changed is rhetoric: from this war will be decided on the battlefield to this war will end in negotiations.

Yes, we hope that it will end in negotiations but the fact is that it still will end only on the battle field as long as Putin keep on attacking. When Putin stops attacking, then there will be more realistic hopes that the end of the war can be negotiated.

Highly unlikely that this is a serious consideration. If the “highly likely” scenario was in the cards, the response would have been different.

The response is different. We came from "no heavy artillery to Ukraine" to "troop deployment". Moving gradually from one red line to another.

 

[rsemmes]

We shouldn't think that this war is normal.

Why?
What is the difference between this war and any other one? Still politics by other means. Maybe you think that "embarrassment" has been the main consideration for every POTUS?

"They failed" and "the failure by Europe". Your point is clear, they know nothing.
"...no restraint in the level of violence ". That is simply false, we don't see area bombing here; 14 dead after attacking a city? That would be an anecdote in WW2.
"increased open threat" Fantasy again, unless you consider every statement as a "threat". We have crossed lines, we have made statements, so, we are threatening Russia; openly.
The mobilization of Russia's Armed Forces, the activation (or whatever the correct term is) of its Nuclear Forces that would be an open threat; or proportionate defensive precautions, depending on the TV channel.

 

[Feanor]

Ukraine's lines in Kursk appear to be collapsing. Russian forces are taking multiple villages, Malaya Loknya and Martynovka are already confirmed. Sudzha itself is now contested, there is footage of Ukrainian infantry attempting to exit on foot under fire (fall of Avdeevka anyone?), and multiple groups of Ukrainian POWs.