The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[vikingatespam]

Trump seems stunned by the Ukrainians' refusal to sign the $500B Rare Mineral Agreement without a written and detailed commitment from the US to provide military support.

Where was this announced ? The last I heard there was going to be a meeting in Riyad on Tuesday ?

 

[John Fedup]

Where was this announced ? The last I heard there was going to be a meeting in Riyad on Tuesday ?

Bizarre, what exactly is a written and detailed commitment from Trump really worth? Is there 500 billion dollars of rare earth resources in Ukraine?

 

[vikingatespam]

Bizarre, what exactly is a written and detailed commitment from Trump really worth? Is there 500 billion dollars of rare earth resources in Ukraine?

To clarify, I meant that the Ukrainians have announced firmly they will not sign without guarantees ?

 

[KipPotapych]

in the last couple days

This is not a serious talk.

I have seen that too, yesterday. Absolutely unbelievable! Every day it's more crazy.

I actually don’t think that is crazy at all. It’s not a “conventional” approach, but he is 100% correct, in my opinion, in saying that anyone would do what Russia is doing in the circumstances. All these fantasies of halting hostilities is not how things work. I really don’t understand where people are getting this idea from. Apply maximin pressure until the enemy is willing to either to come to terms or at least express their willingness to negotiate. In case of the latter, there is a choice of continuing/increasing the pressure or reducing it, depending on the circumstances and the desired goals. When I say “negotiate”, I mean negotiate the terms that you are proposing, not what the resisting party thinks should be negotiated.

For example, the Euro proposal, repeated by Zelensky, to start the ceasefire talks (that Russians are not necessarily interested in) the sides need to stop the aerial attacks, including missiles, bombs, long range drones, etc, while the war on the ground would keep raging on. Well, this is ridiculous because (only one example) the aforementioned bombs are the greatest advantage Russia has in their ground operations as well. Whether the intention is for the proposal to be outright rejected or the assumption is that everyone else is dumb enough to even consider it, that proposal is clearly a nonstarter. It would clearly be a demonstration of an existing weakness at this stage.

Trump seems stunned by the Ukrainians' refusal to sign the $500B Rare Mineral Agreement without a written and detailed commitment from the US to provide military support.

Everyone knows that not only this is an empty “deal”, but also a “trick”, perhaps, to tie the Americans to the resources located in the occupied territory and so on. To expect that people are stupid is a weird expectation. Even if it is Trump we are talking about.

To repeat again, United States’ ties to Ukriane have no advantage over United States’ even a workable relationship with Russia. One can take it in any way they want: security, resources, business, etc.

Note that the “rare earths” agreement went from we (Ukraine) will not sign it without security guarantees to no signing without future military assistance to, maybe, signing just to resume the conversation.

It's not that simple because a capitulation will be extremely dangerous for Europe. It's not clear whether Trump understands that or not. He doesn't understand how important an Ukrainian victory is for European countries. He thinks that UK and France are playing smart games and "are getting their money back" and so on with Ukraine. But Europe is going to do everthing to prevent a capitulation.

There is also a possibility that Trump doesn’t believe that the danger is as extreme as you suggest. And there is also a possibility that he is right.

Remember that in February 2022 everyone left Ukriane to hang expecting it to fold within mere weeks, if not days. No one sent troops, a no fly zone was outright rejected by everyone, and so on. There was no epic danger to Europe in the calculations, while the Red Army was believed to be much more capable, with thousands of pieces of various equipment at their disposal, etc.

Trump evaded the question about Russian pounding Ukraine because it's very embarrassing for him.

You are making things up. First, he didn’t evade the question but said that anyone would do the same. That I addressed above. I believe it also addresses the embarrassment part as well.

Zelensky and his colleagues know that they are going to receive enough support from their European partners to resist the Russian invasion another half year, more or less.

They also believed that they will get all the support from their European partners and the United States for the past three years. As long as it takes and whatever it takes. The American intel suggested that the Ukrainian forces have 6 to 8 months to resist Russian attacks before they experience severe (much worse than it is today) shortage of men (don’t quote me on the numbers because I am taking them out from memory and adding a month or two). That was three months ago? Earlier? What has changed since? My understanding is that nothing but Ukriane threw all their reserves (new brigades) into the grinder and offered money to recruit younger volunteers. The latter resulted in 10 or so thousand signing up, if I recall the reports correctly.

For Europe, the war in Ukraine is part of a larger war on Europe.

If that were the case, the response in 2022 would have been different. It’s been 3 years since and the only thing that changed is rhetoric: from this war will be decided on the battlefield to this war will end in negotiations.

Winning the war in Ukraine is essential to prevent that. Losing the war will make this danger highly likely.

Highly unlikely that this is a serious consideration. If the “highly likely” scenario was in the cards, the response would have been different.


I am going to conclude that this has been discussed previously numerous times with most, including myself, repeating the same thing with different wording (at best). Therefore, I am going to refrain from the future debate on the subject. Things have now changed and they will not be the same. Call it the world order or what have you. All that remains is the remains of Ukraine and yet to be formulated new security architecture in Europe. We shall see what is to come.

 

[KipPotapych]

To clarify, I meant that the Ukrainians have announced firmly they will not sign without guarantees ?

I believe they announced that they are ready to sign (the same announcement was made twice before though and twice the signing failed). It is the Americans that aren’t ready to do so now until their conditions are met.

 

[Fredled]

Sudzha:
Russian smeaked into Sudzha through a gas pipeline.
There were rumours that small Russian groups were fighting in Sudzha the day earlier.

Here is what Ukrainians say about the event:
Ukraine’s Airborne Assault Forces are on a mission to eliminate Russian sabotage and assault groups in the outskirts of Sudzha

It also means that a large gas pipeline going to the Sudzha terminal is empty and perhaps out of order.

There are also rumours of Ukrainian retreating (See feanor's post above).
Russian advance in the north of the Sudzha salient is, IMO, more the effect of Ukrainian retreat than active Russian assault.

No update on the encirclement attempt from the south of Sudzha. Maybe later today...
___________________

Ukrainians hit Taganrog. Another target inside Russia, but closer and more linked to the front line than St Petersburg.
The target is not specified.
_________________
Diplomacy:

This is what happens when someone appeases barbarians. More bombs, more aggression, more victims. Another tragic night in Ukraine

Andriy Yermak, during a Kyiv meeting with the National Security Advisor to the UK Prime Minister, Jonathan Powell

The discussion focused on the initial steps proposed by President Volodymyr Zelensky at the European Council in Brussels. These include silence in the sky and at sea: cessation of attacks on energy and civil infrastructure, as well as naval military operations, and the release of prisoners.
...
Special emphasis was placed on increasing military and financial support for Ukraine and European defense capabilities

Hungary intends to hold a referendum on Ukraine's future membership in the European Union. What I’d like to know would be the results of the referendum in the EU on the membership of Orban's Hungary.

Good question. link
What I would like to know also is how many Hungarians support Orban's pro-Russian policies...

____________________

Where was this announced ? The last I heard there was going to be a meeting in Riyad on Tuesday ?

I mean the refusal to sign it in Washington DC. Let's see what they decide in Ryhad.
Ukrainians have announced that they were ready to sign it now.
According to Trump, Ukrainians are tough negotiators... for the rare Mineral Deal.

Bizarre, what exactly is a written and detailed commitment from Trump really worth?

He is the POTUS. You don't joke with agreements at this level. (Even if I suggested that they could do so in one post above. But I don't think it would be a good idea. Only if pressed to the extreme.)

he is 100% correct, in my opinion, in saying that anyone would do what Russia is doing in the circumstances.

In the current circumstances, a normal person at the power in Russia would stop the war immediately. This war in itself is insane. That's why I'm shocked by such comment.

In another circumstance, when a nation really need to win against another, then yes, it would make sens.
We shouldn't think that this war is normal.

Trump answered like this because he wanted to show that this reaction was normal and that it didn't mean at all that his peace intiiative is failing and that he doesn't have the slightest influence on Putin.
If he is not embarrassed now, he will be later.

For example, the Euro proposal, repeated by Zelensky, to start the ceasefire talks (that Russians are not necessarily interested in) the sides need to stop the aerial attacks, including missiles, bombs, long range drones, etc, while the war on the ground would keep raging on. Well, this is ridiculous because (only one example) the aforementioned bombs are the greatest advantage Russia has in their ground operations as well.

Nobody expects Putin to agree with conditions not advantageous to him. These are condition which are deemed necessary to materially enforce the ceasefire. If the ceasefire agreement says that aerial attacks can continue, it's, by definition, not a ceasefire.

Note that the “rare earths” agreement went from we (Ukraine) will not sign it without security guarantees to no signing without future military assistance to, maybe, signing just to resume the conversation.

I agree, And not just to resume conversation, but military aid as well.

To expect that people are stupid is a weird expectation. Even if it is Trump we are talking about.

There is also a possibility that Trump doesn’t believe that the danger is as extreme as you suggest. And there is also a possibility that he is right.

Remember that in February 2022 everyone left Ukraine to hang expecting it to fold within mere weeks, if not days. No one sent troops, a no fly zone was outright rejected by everyone, and so on. There was no epic danger to Europe in the calculations, while the Red Army was believed to be much more capable, with thousands of pieces of various equipment at their disposal, etc.

The failure by Europe to perceive the danger in 2022 doesn't mean there is no danger.
If you lived in the region, you would feel it.

In 2022, Europe, especially Germany had still cordial relations with Russia. Had Russia taken Ukraine in a matter of days or weeks, with short fighting and minimal casualties, the way they took Crimea, it would have been relatively acceptable. I mean, it would have been disapproved but not to the point of breaking all diplomatic and commercial relations with Russia.
However, after three years of savage destructions and killing and no restraint in the level of violence, and increased open threat to Europe, the danger is much more visible than it was prior 2022.

the only thing that changed is rhetoric: from this war will be decided on the battlefield to this war will end in negotiations.

Yes, we hope that it will end in negotiations but the fact is that it still will end only on the battle field as long as Putin keep on attacking. When Putin stops attacking, then there will be more realistic hopes that the end of the war can be negotiated.

Highly unlikely that this is a serious consideration. If the “highly likely” scenario was in the cards, the response would have been different.

The response is different. We came from "no heavy artillery to Ukraine" to "troop deployment". Moving gradually from one red line to another.

 

[rsemmes]

We shouldn't think that this war is normal.

Why?
What is the difference between this war and any other one? Still politics by other means. Maybe you think that "embarrassment" has been the main consideration for every POTUS?

"They failed" and "the failure by Europe". Your point is clear, they know nothing.
"...no restraint in the level of violence ". That is simply false, we don't see area bombing here; 14 dead after attacking a city? That would be an anecdote in WW2.
"increased open threat" Fantasy again, unless you consider every statement as a "threat". We have crossed lines, we have made statements, so, we are threatening Russia; openly.
The mobilization of Russia's Armed Forces, the activation (or whatever the correct term is) of its Nuclear Forces that would be an open threat; or proportionate defensive precautions, depending on the TV channel.

 

[Feanor]

Ukraine's lines in Kursk appear to be collapsing. Russian forces are taking multiple villages, Malaya Loknya and Martynovka are already confirmed. Sudzha itself is now contested, there is footage of Ukrainian infantry attempting to exit on foot under fire (fall of Avdeevka anyone?), and multiple groups of Ukrainian POWs.

 

[Fredled]

This Pro-Russian video blogger explains the recent Russian military operation in Kursk.
He tells how the Russians sneaked into the gas pipeline. IMO, this was a failure because the surprise effect failed. Russian soldiers where pounded by Ukrainian artillery a minute after they went out of the pipe. I don't think, that they could manage to do much.
The milblogger then says that Ukrainians in the north-east of Sudzha were in panic when they heard explosions in their back. And ran away from their position in disorder. I don't think it's true. I would make much more sens that Ukrainian troops in the north of Sudzha received the order to retreat after the Russian cut through their defence lines in the south, making the situation critical. By all evidences, it would be suicidal to stay north of Sudzha. Second, I don't think that experienced soldiers who held Russians in check for 9 months would panic at the sound of explosion a few kilometres away just because the sound comes from an unexpected direction.

However I believe that the Russians had some success in impeding the Ukrainian retreat by blowing a bridge. A bridge that Ukrainians planned to blow themselves after their retreat. Which means that Ukrainians planned their retreat for some time already.
Russians also managed to destroy a retreating Ukrainian column of 8 or 10 vehicles moving toward Sudzha from the north-east (Feanor will certainly give us the full list of models, variants and year of production of each of these vehicle - thanks in advance - LOL). It should be noted that the entire Sudzha salient is now within Russian artillery range.

Russian may manage to catch a certain number of Ukrainian trying to escape the encirclement and get some trophies. I don't think that "10,000" Ukrainian soldiers are encircled and on the verge of surrendering. It's not the first time, Russians made such a claim. Ukrainians have become specialised in escaping encirclement.
__________________

What is the difference between this war and any other one?

Each war is different. And every war is abnormal. But this war is more abnormal than others because Russia didn't need to make this war. They could have protected their interests with peaceful means much more effectively but Putin is ruining Russia with this war.
Putin is applying ancient times logic (the logic of wars before the 19th century). And this logic doesn't work in the modern world.

"...no restraint in the level of violence ". That is simply false, we don't see area bombing here; 14 dead after attacking a city? That would be an anecdote in WW2.

When an Ukrainian city is within artillery range, Russian systematically do area bombing, with destructions similar to those on German cities in WW2. Just look at aerial footage.

Russian don't do it on cities far from the front because they don't have the possibility to do that. To do carpet bombing of entire cities, they would need to fly with dozen of bombers above these cities. Their bombers would be destroyed by the Ukrainian air defence even before reaching their point of dropping.
It's impossible to destroy entire cities with cruise and ballistic missiles because Russia doesn't have them in enough quantity. Russia has used more or less the same amount of cruise and ballistic missile that they had at the beginning of the war. Now they are using what they produce monthly.
They use all their gliding bombs on the front line where it's the most useful. They have no gliding bomb left for bombing cities.

Ukrainians are intercepting at least 60% of all incoming missiles and UAVs. Making it even more costly and difficult for Russians to inflict wide spread damages.
Russians are using all their means at their disposal, hence, by definition, with no restraint, except for the nuclear weapons.

"increased open threat" Fantasy again,

Every European head of state, analysts, retired generals agree that Russia is a threat to Europe and this feeling is increasing. Like it or not. The population living in the east of Europe is also overwhelmingly in support of stronger military protection against Russia. I personally know someone who is in active duty in an east European army, training regularly near the Russian Federation border and he has absolutely zero doubt about that.

 

[rsemmes]

...didn't need to make this war.

Just like every other war.

Artillery range...
So, Kiev looks like Bakhmut... and Sumy, and Pokrovsk...

Their bombers would be destroyed...
Besides your wishful thinking (yes, attackers suffer losses), it is not using glide bombs against cities, that is, by definition, restrain.
At least 60%...
A few years after the war... let's compare logs. (You can do that about estimated and actual aircraft downed, WW2 and other wars).

All their means...
Yes, every artillery piece in their army, every aircraft...

The threat of the Soviet Army invading Europe... the threat of an asteroid hitting the planet... "Feeling" a threat is not an actual threat. Once Putin mobilizes the Russian army (he needs more than a weekend to do it), that will be a threat. How long to get less than 200.000 men (not even for a war) along Ukraine's border?

PS
A bridge that Ukrainians planned to blow...
Yes, Ukrainian engineers know how to do their job. Do you think they deserve a medal?

 

[seaspear]

Interesting story out that vice president J.D Vance,s cousin is in the Ukraine foreign legion and has been so from the outset

MSN

 

[tank3487]

This Pro-Russian video blogger explains the recent Russian military operation in Kursk.
He tells how the Russians sneaked into the gas pipeline. IMO, this was a failure because the surprise effect failed. Russian soldiers where pounded by Ukrainian artillery a minute after they went out of the pipe. I don't think, that they could manage to do much.
The milblogger then says that Ukrainians in the north-east of Sudzha were in panic when they heard explosions in their back. And ran away from their position in disorder. I don't think it's true. I would make much more sens that Ukrainian troops in the north of Sudzha received the order to retreat after the Russian cut through their defence lines in the south, making the situation critical. By all evidences, it would be suicidal to stay north of Sudzha. Second, I don't think that experienced soldiers who held Russians in check for 9 months would panic at the sound of explosion a few kilometres away just because the sound comes from an unexpected direction.

Considering video of destruction of collumn that retreated so disorganized that did not even know about destroyed bridge, so got blobbed letting it easily being destroyed by Russian artillery. Cars that were in such panic that crashed into destroyed bridges. And various videos of retreating infantry on foot that get pounded and picked apart by Russians i do think that operation was succesfull. All those, "we killed them all by artillery, trust us" do sound like cheap bs and damage control. You do not not abandon so many settlements in couple days in such disorganised fasion and with enemy on your shoulders punishing you without good reason. As you say himself abandoning something that you held for 9 months do require good reason.


Oh and if you believe in downed 60% i do have nice metal tower in Paris to sell for scrap metal to you.

 

[KipPotapych]

There have been some reports in the media and other sources regarding the collapse of the Kursk salient and connecting it to the halt of the American intel and military aid. Some suggested even more bizarre “theories”:



This, of course is nonsense. What is happening had been brewing for weeks. It isn’t some sudden event that just happened out of the blue, but rather the result of the Russian tactical advances over a period of time that choked the supply to the Ukrainians in the Kursk region. As a result, nearly half the territory Ukraine still had under their control was lost within 24 hours or so and it is an evolving situation.



A good short thread from the Black Bird Group (a few level headed fellas from Finland):

Thread by @Black_BirdGroup on Thread Reader App

@Black_BirdGroup: We have updated the map to reflect the emerging situation in the Kursk salient, where recent Russian offensive have forced the Ukrainians to withdraw from large areas. The northern part of the sali...…

threadreaderapp.com

This is a report at Kiev Independent from March 7 that clearly indicates things became critical way before any announced halting of the intel sharing:

Ukrainian troops' logistics in Kursk Oblast destroyed, face risk of encirclement, sources say

A Ukrainian soldier fighting in Kursk Oblast described the situation in the Russian region as "critical," warning that Ukrainian troops in the region face the threat of encirclement. He added that Ukrainian soldiers based in the region would like to withdraw.

kyivindependent.com

Russian forces have destroyed Ukrainian troops' logistics in Russia's Kursk Oblast, and Ukrainian soldiers face the risk of encirclement, a Ukrainian soldier and a medic deployed in the region told the Kyiv Independent on condition of anonymity on March 7.

The confirmation came after several media reported that Russian forces had made a breakthrough south of the Ukrainian-held town of Sudzha in Kursk Oblast. The Ukrainian battlefield monitoring group DeepState has confirmed a push deep into Ukrainian positions toward the Ukrainian state border in Sumy Oblast.

A Ukrainian soldier fighting in Kursk Oblast described the situation in the Russian region as "critical," warning that Ukrainian troops in the region face the threat of encirclement. He added that Ukrainian soldiers based in the region would like to withdraw.

According to the source, all bridges in the vicinity of Sudzha have been destroyed, and Ukrainian troops are cut off from ammunition and fuel supplies.

Russian forces have destroyed Ukrainian troops' logistics in Russia's Kursk Oblast, and Ukrainian soldiers face the risk of encirclement, a Ukrainian soldier and a medic deployed in the region told the Kyiv Independent on condition of anonymity on March 7.

The confirmation came after several media reported that Russian forces had made a breakthrough south of the Ukrainian-held town of Sudzha in Kursk Oblast. The Ukrainian battlefield monitoring group DeepState has confirmed a push deep into Ukrainian positions toward the Ukrainian state border in Sumy Oblast.

A Ukrainian soldier fighting in Kursk Oblast described the situation in the Russian region as "critical," warning that Ukrainian troops in the region face the threat of encirclement. He added that Ukrainian soldiers based in the region would like to withdraw.

According to the source, all bridges in the vicinity of Sudzha have been destroyed, and Ukrainian troops are cut off from ammunition and fuel supplies.[…]

This had nothing to do with the US intel or military aid.


I don’t have the access to the Wall Street Journal, but they have a report about some effects of the stoppage of the military aid from the US. I am sure the Ukrainian Pravda or someone else will write the briefs (if not copy the entire report), but here is a highlight, as reported by Rob Lee:



People are still saying that Europe will step up and it will suffice. It clearly will not.


In the meantime,

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-assess-ukraines-peace-stance-saudi-arabia-meeting-2025-03-09/

U.S. officials are planning to use Tuesday's meeting with a Ukrainian delegation in Saudi Arabia in part to determine whether Ukraine is willing to make material concessions to Russia to end the war, according to two U.S. officials.
The U.S. delegation will also be watching for signs that the Ukrainians are serious about improving ties with the Trump administration after a meeting between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy devolved into an argument last month, said one of the officials, who requested anonymity to preview the closed-door talks.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will fly to Jeddahon Sunday for the bilateral talks with Ukrainian officials, who will be led by Andriy Yermak, a top Zelenskiy aide. Rubio is expected to be joined by National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff.

"You can't say 'I want peace,' and, 'I refuse to compromise on anything,'" one of the U.S. officials said of the upcoming talks.

"We want to see if the Ukrainians are interested not just in peace, but in a realistic peace," said the other official. "If they are only interested in 2014 or 2022 borders, that tells you something."[…]


For “laughs and giggles”:



I am rather amazed that this guy is still being relatively widely cited by the media and quoted by various people who should know better (Gen. Ben Hodges likes the guy, for example). I wonder how much money he is milking from this war via his “analysis”. He’s also been asked numerous times by the guys who create the maps he uses not to do so, yet… They asked in this fresh “take” as well:

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Intel sharing with Ukraine is reportedly back online.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-10/us-freeze-on-ukraine-intel-sharing-just-about-lifted-trump-says

 

[rsemmes]

My take on RUSI's Tactics/3rd year of war.

Ukraine has lost the war.
At the end of the report is talking about international partners (and now back to US sharing intelligence), the third hand Ukraine is fighting this war with (but I read Starlink is not coming back) and how useful it all will be for us.
This is a slow war, but RU can rotate units and UKR cannot.
Western equipment is "posh", in detriment of serviceability.
UKR lacks mines and artillery, few 155 and spare parts, munitions from different suppliers deteriorates accuracy; NK shells are of low quality.
If, or as soon as, UKR runs out of SAM or AD systems it would mean a collapse of the front line.
FPV drones don't destroy armour those (crews will survive).
Supply is not related to demand/need but to favourable conditions to carry it out.
IFF/EW/different-units causing issues and a pause to attack means allowing to be attacked.

It mentions an increase on tank vs tanks actions; I haven't seen that. @Feanor, anything on that point?

Also, now is not that easy to find Kursk, what it was a "brilliant" and "audacious" (genius?) operation, in the news. I am not saying that it cost Ugledar, Chasiv Iar and the Oskil line, but the 2nd Ardennes Offensive didn't help.

Edit.
Are wire-guided Lancets already in use?

 

[rsemmes]

An Ukrainian counterattack to the gates of Sinkivka?

Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps

Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). It was created with the aim of providing a publicly available but accurate control map of Ukraine. The map is updated based on confirmed information but it is still under development and may have some mistakes.

www.google.com

 

[Feanor]

This Pro-Russian video blogger explains the recent Russian military operation in Kursk.
He tells how the Russians sneaked into the gas pipeline. IMO, this was a failure because the surprise effect failed. Russian soldiers where pounded by Ukrainian artillery a minute after they went out of the pipe. I don't think, that they could manage to do much.
The milblogger then says that Ukrainians in the north-east of Sudzha were in panic when they heard explosions in their back. And ran away from their position in disorder. I don't think it's true. I would make much more sens that Ukrainian troops in the north of Sudzha received the order to retreat after the Russian cut through their defence lines in the south, making the situation critical. By all evidences, it would be suicidal to stay north of Sudzha. Second, I don't think that experienced soldiers who held Russians in check for 9 months would panic at the sound of explosion a few kilometres away just because the sound comes from an unexpected direction.

However I believe that the Russians had some success in impeding the Ukrainian retreat by blowing a bridge. A bridge that Ukrainians planned to blow themselves after their retreat. Which means that Ukrainians planned their retreat for some time already.
Russians also managed to destroy a retreating Ukrainian column of 8 or 10 vehicles moving toward Sudzha from the north-east (Feanor will certainly give us the full list of models, variants and year of production of each of these vehicle - thanks in advance - LOL). It should be noted that the entire Sudzha salient is now within Russian artillery range.

Russian may manage to catch a certain number of Ukrainian trying to escape the encirclement and get some trophies. I don't think that "10,000" Ukrainian soldiers are encircled and on the verge of surrendering. It's not the first time, Russians made such a claim. Ukrainians have become specialised in escaping encirclement.

Russia blew multiple bridges, and is capturing multiple groups of POWs. Ukraine has also rapidly retreated from a number of locales under threat of encirclement. I think the Ukrainian story that they totally stopped the pipeline attack is nonsense. I think Russia successfully caused Ukrainian forces to withdraw by pressuring the routes in and out of Sudzha area, and simultaneously launching an attack well inside of what Ukraine thought their perimeter was. As a result Ukraine is left with a small fraction of what they held in Sudzha, and it's not clear the situation stabilized. Sudzha itself is contested now. And Ukraine's reserves aren't going there to keep up that fight, they're being sent to other areas, to counter-attack there. And this makes sense.

When an Ukrainian city is within artillery range, Russian systematically do area bombing, with destructions similar to those on German cities in WW2. Just look at aerial footage.

Sorry but no, this isn't the case. Russian artillery bombardments are not area bombardments similar to WWII. They're much slower and they're aimed at specific targets. Artemovsk/Bakhmut wasn't reduced to rubble in a week of heavy bombardment before a general assault. It was a slow back and forth. The level of destruction is due to the very slow movement of the front coupled with heavy back and forth fighting. Areas Russia takes relatively rapidly don't see the same destruction. Places like Selidovo and even Kurakhovo are relatively intact.

Russian don't do it on cities far from the front because they don't have the possibility to do that. To do carpet bombing of entire cities, they would need to fly with dozen of bombers above these cities. Their bombers would be destroyed by the Ukrainian air defence even before reaching their point of dropping.
It's impossible to destroy entire cities with cruise and ballistic missiles because Russia doesn't have them in enough quantity. Russia has used more or less the same amount of cruise and ballistic missile that they had at the beginning of the war. Now they are using what they produce monthly.
They use all their gliding bombs on the front line where it's the most useful. They have no gliding bomb left for bombing cities.

It indicates priorities. They're not interested in leveling the cities, they're interested in striking Ukrainian troops at the front. Or at least they're so little interested in leveling cities that they dedicate no resources to it.

Ukrainians are intercepting at least 60% of all incoming missiles and UAVs. Making it even more costly and difficult for Russians to inflict wide spread damages.

60%? Why not 90%? 99%? Is there any reliable data on interception rates? Or just Ukraine's claims? Like when they first claimed that the Kh-22 hit a building in Dnepropetrovsk because they shot it down. Then they claimed they didn't shoot it down, and Russia hit the building on purpose, and in fact Ukraine doesn't have the ability to shoot down these missiles. Then when faced with their own prior claims of downing they claimed those were lies but now they're telling the truth.

Russians are using all their means at their disposal, hence, by definition, with no restraint, except for the nuclear weapons.

You can see Russian FPV drones in Pokrovsk ignore civilians walking around and strike military vehicles instead. Some would argue this is a form of restraint.

 

[Fredled]

Sudzha:
According to the last report from Heinrich Torsten, Russians took the Kursk Oblast villages of Lebedevsk, Malaya Lodka (this was already reported earlier), Ruskoe Pereshnoe, Martinovsk, and in Ukraine, the village of Novenke.

Here is what Syrskyi said about the situation (free to anyone to believe everything, nothing at all or partially what he says):

I am currently working in the operational zone of the Kursk Group of Forces. The situation along the Sumy-Kursk border remains under the control of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Several settlements along the border, which Russian propaganda frequently mentions, no longer exist -- they have been completely destroyed by the aggressor's firepower,
In just four days of fighting near Plekhovo, the enemy has lost nearly an entire battalion of infantry.

I have made decisions on the ground to strengthen our forces with additional resources, including electronic warfare (EW) systems and drones. Currently, there is no threat of our units being encircled in the Kursk region. Ukrainian troops are maneuvering effectively to maintain strong defensive positions,

link

We are recording enemy attempts to create an active combat zone in the area of Novenke on Ukrainian territory and secure a position there. These are small assault groups consisting of a few individuals. They are trying to infiltrate our territory, consolidate their presence, and advance deeper into Ukraine, likely with the aim of disrupting supply routes,

link
Sort of officially confirming what milbloggers are saying.

Elsewhere inside Ukraine, Russians continue their advance with the noticeable difference that Ukrainians are also advancing in some directions. Ukrainian advances still don't make up for Russian ones, but Ukrainians are confident that continuing land operations is in their favour:
Ukraine will not agree to a ceasefire on land.

He [Trump] says: Is there a ceasefire plan? We say, yes, we have one. We propose a ceasefire in the skies -- no drones, no missiles, no ballistic strikes. We also propose a ceasefire at sea -- we commit to not attacking. This is paradoxical because we currently hold the initiative in the Black Sea. Additionally, we propose not attacking energy infrastructure. However, if you ask about a ceasefire on land, that's a different matter. Ukraine will not agree to that because it would simply give Putin a few months to treat his wounded, recruit infantry from North Korea, and restart the war,

As I said, stopping land operations right now would be a disaster for Ukrainians. Even thought the tide is not reversing, active defence and counter-attacks are essential.

Toresk:
Russian moving reinforcement to Toresk according to an Ukrainian spokesman:

The enemy's activity was high yesterday. Last week, for example, there were 42 combat engagements, 20 in the Siversky sector, 18 in the Toretsk sector, and 4 in the rest. The enemy is active not only in assault operations, but also in the use of artillery, as well as in the use of tactical aviation against Kostiantynivka. It is also hitting the settlements such as Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka,” said Zaporozhets.

The situation in each of the three areas is different. For instance, artillery activity in the Toretsk sector has decreased and the number of offensive actions has increased. Also, according to intelligence, there is information that some units of the 150th motorized rifle division of the Russian occupation forces have been redeployed to this sector from Kurakhove, as well as some units from the Pokrovsk sector are joining the assault operations in the Toretsk sector, the spokesman noted.

Most of the assault actions are taking place in Toretsk. The situation in the Chasiv Yar or Kramatorsk sector has changed in such a way that the enemy has been actively amassing and one of the political goals was to capture the city by March 1. The last major assault with the use of equipment was on March 6, and now the enemy is actively amassing forces for assault operations again, and artillery shelling is increasing during this period,

link

According to Heinrich Torsten, Ukrainian were spotted on the east of the Toresk's Stadium.

An Ukrainian counterattack to the gates of Sinkivka?

And at the gate of Sinkivka.
______________________
Ukrainian Generals under Arrest:

On January 20, 2025, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the State Bureau of Investigation (SBI) arrested two generals and a colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, including Halushkin. Investigators claim they failed to ensure the proper defence of the Kharkiv region during the Russian offensive in May 2024.

link
It's quiet unusual to arrest and put under investigation and on trial a general of the armed force, let alone two of them and a colonel for a single event.
An incompetent commander can be dismissed or transferred to the rear, but not usually put under arrest. I think there is either an extreme lack of motivation to defend the country which almost amount to treason or suspicion of corruption (internal or external).
______________________
Deep Strikes:
Ukraine’s Defence Forces, hit two Russian strategic facilities, the Ryazan and Novokuibyshevsk refineries.
They also hit a metalurgical plant, according to Heinrich Torsten, but I have no link about it.

It seems that Trump tolerates these attacks or that he ignores them to avoid the fact that he has no influence on these events.

 

[Fredled]

US Military Aid and Intel sharing cut:

the U.S. never shut off intelligence for anything defensive that Ukrainians needed.

link (Reuters)
Probably, the US still shared live saving intel, for example when Tu bombers were scrambled for attacks on Ukrainian cities. And possibly not shared when they could be used for offensive purpose.

In a last theatric reply, Trump implied that intel sharing has resumed.

We just about have. We just about have."

(Repeated twice, as he often does.)
link (Reuters)

We would never do such a thing [disconnecting Starlink] or use it as a bargaining chip,

link
If Elon Musk's tweet is true (which still has to be verified) StarLink communication has never been cut and talks about it were mere rumours.
Or Elon Musk reversed rapidly the decision to cut or simply didn't comply to the order to cut by Trump, understanding the damages it would do on his business in Europe as well as for his personal image.

Deal with Diehl
Increasing the number of IRIS-T systems.
"Doubling" doesn't mean much since there is something like 3 units in total.
______________________

Diplomacy:
Russia too don't have any card. They had all the cards. Now they lost all the cards. LOL. Trump at his best.

I say they [Ukraine] don't have the cards. Nobody really has the cards. Russia doesn't have the cards. What you have to do is you have to make a deal and you have to stop the killing. It's a senseless war and we are going to get it stopped,

Watch the full Trump interview on Air Force One
(The cards comments is at 2:30)

More than 30 nations will participate in Paris planning talks on a security force for Ukraine (AP)
It's a diplomatic "victory" for Ukraine because it means that a lot of countries support the idea of a deployment in Ukraine, even thought most of them won't participate.
It should be noted that this initiative is US free.

Nato secretary Merk Rutte knows how speak indirectly to Trump.
IMO, what he said is true.

Obviously, that has to be a good deal. Because there is one guy who will, at the end, judge the outcome of all of this. And that is the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, Xi Jinping. And if he feels that it was Russia coming out on top, and not the West, he will start thinking – hey, that’s an interesting development, what does this mean for my ambitions? And we know his ambitions in the Indo-Pacific. And we know that the U.S. is very worried about it. So we need a good deal – for the Ukrainians and also for the world peace,

link

Austrian Minister for European and International Affairs, Beate Meinl-Reisinger, will visit Kyiv on Friday

British Foreign Secretary David Lammy has promised to take steps to unblock the GBP 2.3 billion received from the sale of Chelsea football club by Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich.

Abramovich was allowed to sell Chelsea on the condition that the money would go to help victims of Russia's war against Ukraine.

As I understand the legal different is that the British government wants to use these funds for general aid to Ukraine, including or mainly for military aid while the initial purpose of these funds was humanitarian.

@rsemmes
Bulgaria's new defence strategy designates Russia as major security threat

 

[rsemmes]

Bulgaria's new defence strategy designates Russia as major security threat

Macron has designated US as a threat to Greenland.