The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[seaspear]

Russia blew multiple bridges, and is capturing multiple groups of POWs. Ukraine has also rapidly retreated from a number of locales under threat of encirclement. I think the Ukrainian story that they totally stopped the pipeline attack is nonsense. I think Russia successfully caused Ukrainian forces to withdraw by pressuring the routes in and out of Sudzha area, and simultaneously launching an attack well inside of what Ukraine thought their perimeter was. As a result Ukraine is left with a small fraction of what they held in Sudzha, and it's not clear the situation stabilized. Sudzha itself is contested now. And Ukraine's reserves aren't going there to keep up that fight, they're being sent to other areas, to counter-attack there. And this makes sense.



Sorry but no, this isn't the case. Russian artillery bombardments are not area bombardments similar to WWII. They're much slower and they're aimed at specific targets. Artemovsk/Bakhmut wasn't reduced to rubble in a week of heavy bombardment before a general assault. It was a slow back and forth. The level of destruction is due to the very slow movement of the front coupled with heavy back and forth fighting. Areas Russia takes relatively rapidly don't see the same destruction. Places like Selidovo and even Kurakhovo are relatively intact.



It indicates priorities. They're not interested in leveling the cities, they're interested in striking Ukrainian troops at the front. Or at least they're so little interested in leveling cities that they dedicate no resources to it.



60%? Why not 90%? 99%? Is there any reliable data on interception rates? Or just Ukraine's claims? Like when they first claimed that the Kh-22 hit a building in Dnepropetrovsk because they shot it down. Then they claimed they didn't shoot it down, and Russia hit the building on purpose, and in fact Ukraine doesn't have the ability to shoot down these missiles. Then when faced with their own prior claims of downing they claimed those were lies but now they're telling the truth.



You can see Russian FPV drones in Pokrovsk ignore civilians walking around and strike military vehicles instead. Some would argue this is a form of restraint.

Apparently bloggers are claiming that Russian special forces were requesting on line prior to the events in the pipeline oxygen masks for a Kersk operation and Ukraine came to right conclusion

 

[KipPotapych]

This is the original post that everyone refers to, seeking oxygen tanks in Kursk:

Моисей | БА | СпН | МО РФ

Срочно нужны на завтра в Курске кислородные балоны. Очень срочно, вопросы зачем итд автоматом в бан на бутылку. Кто может помочь, жду очень.

t.me

Note that the post dates March 1 and he is looking for tanks for “tomorrow”.

I would have to agree for now that the stuff Ukrainians are posting is rubbish. The video circulating with drone footage showing (presumably) Russian troops and then some strikes over the area are not indicative of… well, anything. These videos are dime a dozen, from both sides.

This Ukrainian account suggests that they weren’t able to prepare “gifts” in time (but asking how many Russians the OP killed with his post):

Exilenova+

Есть один покемон, которого переиграла наша разведка Балоны мальчикам действительно пригодились, успеть подготовить "подарки" судя по всему не успели, НО Но с информацией сработали на-ура, результат выше Моисей, признавайся, сколько русосвинов этим постом ты убил?

t.me

This Ukrainian account shows the map of the frontline after the pipe travels by the Russians:

Dnipro Osint ⟨ Гарбуз ⟩

Ситуація на Курщині, карта лінії бойового зіткнення. Без допису/коментарів ️Dnipro Osint | Чат

t.me

This is the map:



This is a map from about 10 hours ago:



Another thing is that the Ukrainian sources I just looked through dedicated a post or two to the event, mostly citing the official video circulating everywhere. Normally, in a similar event, there is a dozen of posts with a lot of gloating and the like.

From what I can tell, the best case scenario is that they saw the post, made the “right” conclusions, however unlikely, and monitored the entire length (!) of the pipeline; more realistic scenario is that they saw the Russian troops near the pipeline or “all over the place”, shelled them as best as they could, someone remembered the post they saw a few days prior, and used it for propaganda.

 

[Fredled]

Please note, that Ukrainians are also not showing restraint in their attacks on Russia neither. Just the consequences are smaller.
Even as they express readiness to start peace talks and sign the Rare Mineral Deal.
Ukraine on Tuesday launched its biggest ever drone attack on Moscow, killing at least two workers at a meat warehouse, injuring 18 others (Reuters)

It's not clear what the targets were. The workers were killed by fallen debris according to the Russians. It's not even clear if there was a target inside Moscow's urban area.
According to Ukrinform, which quotes Radio Liberty, Ukrainians made drone attacks in many different regions of Russia at the same time last night.

According to the ministry’s report, Russia shot down 91 drones over Moscow region, 126 over Kursk region, 38 over Bryansk region, 25 over Belgorod region, 22 over Ryazan region, and 10 over Kaluga region.

Also, UAVs were allegedly intercepted over Lipetsk, Oryol, Voronezh, and Nizhny Novgorod regions.

Zhukovsky and Domodedovo airports have suspended operations due to a drone attack, Rosaviatsia reported. Later, they also noted that arrivals and departures at the Vnukovo airport had been put on hold.

The Moscow Railways reported that the rail infrastructure at the Domodedovo station had sustained damage.

In addition to Moscow, residents of Ryazan are reporting an UAV attack on the Diaghilev military airfield.

link

See the compilation from security camera and smartphone footage with the original soundtrack and expletives made by Canal13.

__________

I would have to agree for now that the stuff Ukrainians are posting is rubbish.

Except that my account of the event was based on a pro-Russian video, one of the first posted on line.
He said clearly that they were shelled by Ukrainian artillery when they emerged from the tube and ran for cover in the trees. Then continues his narration adding "but..." and explaining later why it was nonetheless a success.

Now it's possible that despite artillery fire, a certain number of Russian soldiers managed to escape the shelling area and stay somewhere.
Much more significant is the general collapse of the Kursk front.

Considering video of destruction of column that retreated so disorganised that did not even know about destroyed bridge, so got blobbed letting it easily being destroyed by Russian artillery. Cars that were in such panic that crashed into destroyed bridges.

There was certainly disorganisation and heavy losses during this retreat due to Russian shelling and drone attacks, Retreating forces are always very vulnerable.

Oh and if you believe in downed 60% i do have nice metal tower in Paris to sell for scrap metal to you.

60%? Why not 90%? 99%? Is there any reliable data on interception rates? Or just Ukraine's claims?

This is the estimate from western sources. Obviously you won't find Russian sources to corroborate.

It indicates priorities. They're not interested in levelling the cities, they're interested in striking Ukrainian troops at the front. Or at least they're so little interested in levelling cities that they dedicate no resources to it.

I agree. I wrote that in response to @rsemmes when he said that Putin was restraining himself because he didn't order the total destruction of Ukrainian cities as the Allies did on Germany in ww2.
My point is that not only it's not the priorities for the Russians in the current circumstances but they also have no way to do it. After they have used everything for the most prioritised targets, they have little left for levelling cities if they wanted to. Therefore, it can't be accounted as a sign of restraint.

 

[rsemmes]

My point is that not only it's not the priorities for the Russians in the current circumstances but they also have no way to do it. After they have used everything for the most prioritised targets, they have little left for levelling cities if they wanted to. Therefore, it can't be accounted as a sign of restraint.

Neither Kant nor Socatres, nor my Philosophy teacher, would agree with your very personal "logic".

 

[tank3487]

Except that my account of the event was based on a pro-Russian video, one of the first posted on line.
He said clearly that they were shelled by Ukrainian artillery when they emerged from the tube and ran for cover in the trees. Then continues his narration adding "but..." and explaining later why it was nonetheless a success.

There is full report by Russian first channel available now(in Russian of course). They had correspondent with assault group. In total it was 800 troops(300 in initial wave and 500 during the day) that were being accumulated for 4 days in digged out chambers. It is actually full of information how operation was organized. Including mention of methan poisoning during preparation due to gas pressure pushing out stub before they welded metal. They actually say that Ukrainian side had reacted only to one of the last batch of troops so only them got shelled a bit before dispersing to cover(it is actually explain why Ukrainian side wrongly estimated tunnel troops only as 100 and why it allowed such fast collapse of Ukrainian frontline).

Эксклюзивный репортаж Амира Юсупова о невероятной операции наших бойцов, которые по газопроводу зашли в Суджу. Новости. Первый канал

This is the estimate from western sources. Obviously you won't find Russian sources to corroborate.

And they are based on Ukrainian data. Which mean its useless propaganda. You really need to see WW2 reported and factual difference to get why such claims bring only laught.

 

[Redshift]

The threat of the Soviet Army invading Europe... the threat of an asteroid hitting the planet... "Feeling" a threat is not an actual threat.

And yet that "feeling of a threat" which did not actually exist was the reason for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. There was no threat of an invasion of Russia by NATO but Putin and Russia "felt" that there was.

You have wrapped yourself up in knots with that one.

Europe and NATO can't act to defend itself on a "feeling" but Russia can invade it's neighbour hmmmmm.

 

[rsemmes]

And yet that "feeling of a threat" which did not actually exist was the reason for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. There was no threat of an invasion of Russia by NATO but Putin and Russia "felt" that there was.
You have wrapped yourself up in knots with that one.
Europe and NATO can't act to defend itself on a "feeling" but Russia can invade it's neighbour hmmmmm.

Try again.
From what Disney movie is that version?

Why did Russia invade Ukraine? Maybe 2014 has something to do with that. Another question would be if Russia considers NATO as a threat, we see Russia as a threat, don't we?