Indonesia: 'green water navy'

[Ananda]

Indonesia interested in Italian carrier ITS Giuseppe Garibaldi

The Indonesian Navy is interested in acquiring the Marina Militare's assault helicopter carrier/aircraft carrier ITS Giuseppe Garibaldi (C 551), Janes understands.

www.janes.com

The rumours of Garibaldi procurement has also reach Jane's sources. Seems it is loud enough as Jane's Italian sources also confirm it. I don't think taking over ex Italian Harrier on the consideration. Simply because TNI-AL aerial wing doesn't have Fighters capabilities and TNI-AU seems not interested to build VSTOL capabilities.

Rumours that now circulating on Fincantieri offer is:

• 2 PPA Light Plus (with option for Full config being done in Fincantieri partner yard in Indonesia),
• 1 Garibaldi light carrier,
• 2 FREMM (potential 2nd hand ones),
• 2 U212NS

Frankly speaking on the matter of financing, as I already put in Malaysian thread, ASEAN countries now are place between two hard rock. The need to beef up defence and the need to provide strong financial buffer for financial pressures on economies and markets due to turbulence in market now and projected couple years ahead.

Balancing US/West and China on defence and trade also become factors now which potential buying Chinese defense items or opening more on Chinese investments vs US and Western ones become one big consideration. For that Frenchie, Italian and Turkiye seems become more acceptable sources of defense items as being considered more acceptable Geopolitics and Economics wise.

Frigates priority is how to replace 5 Van Speijk that now already reach 6 Decades old and continues refurbished them seems already reach the limit. Navy Chief talks that PAL FMP is the choice to replace them. However considering time line PAL need to produce FMP (even current batch) and so far other local yard still limited up to Corvette/OPV sizes, then faster Frigates procurement call Interim Frigates come to calculations.

This is why PPA being procured, this is why they are looking on either potential getting 2 more Frigates either 2nd hand FREMM or taking over existing batches on current production line (just like PPA case). This is rumours where Turkiye Istif class offer coming, as Turkiye want to offer similar with what Italian did, offering their own existing batches.

So combination of Domestic production, taking over other countries existing production line, and buying 2nd hand ones. Buying 2nd hand always potential can be political mine field. As means taking investment from local yards. Thus 2nd hand procurement reserve only to types that local yards consider not ready. 2nd hand procurement also aimed has yo provide Tech Transfer designs so Local yards can build it the types later on.

@Sandhi Yudha this is where the rumours talk on Wave class interest coming. As TNI-AL in their studies shown the need for Ocean Going RAS (read that studies sometime ago, but forgot to save the slides) of 150m+ size. Enlarging local Litoral RAS design Tarakan possible, but whether the local design is ready or not is the question.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Rumours that now circulating on Fincantieri offer is:

• 2 PPA Light Plus (with option for Full config being done in Fincantieri partner yard in Indonesia),
• 1 Garibaldi light carrier,
• 2 FREMM (potential 2nd hand ones),
• 2 U212NS

Frankly speaking on the matter of financing, as I already put in Malaysian thread, ASEAN countries now are place between two hard rock. The need to beef up defence and the need to provide strong financial buffer for financial pressures on economies and markets due to turbulence in market now and projected couple years ahead.

So it looks like the vessels which will become the replacement of the Ahmad Yani Class, are 2 Iver Huitveldts, 2 PPAs and 2 FREMMs, three different classes. With other words, the two SIGMA 10514 frigates are additional frigates/capability improvement.

Those Type 212NS boats, will the procurement of them replace the two Scorpènes order, or come on top of it?

If the Indonesian government cancels the IKN Project and fight/solve those huge corruption cases seriously, then they can save a lot of money. Enough to strengthen the financial buffer.

I am afraid that if Indonesia also order those AV-8Bs, those things will end up like the Harriers from Thailand.

 

[Ananda]

it looks like the vessels which will become the replacement of the Ahmad Yani Class, are 2 Iver Huitveldts, 2 PPAs and 2 FREMMs, three different classes. With other words, the two SIGMA 10514 frigates are additional frigates/capability improvement

Or 2-4 I (Istif) class Frigate, all back to whose bidding more attractive. Turkiye rumours also offer to switch 2 of their existing production line to Indonesia order. Just like Fincantieri did with PPA, while next 2 can be build in Indonesian yard they are partnering with.

This gain momentum as:

1. The system in Istif class will shares similarities with FMP that's going to use similar systems derive from both Istif and PPA.
2. Turkiye offer 4 Istiff at price of 2 NG FDI that previously got momentum. Which is why the Frenchie salesman got more bitter with 'turkification' of recent naval procurement trend.

If that happened then the Van Speijks actually will be replace by Sigma 10514 and Istif Class Frigates. Both can be consider as Light Frigate, while bigger Frigate like FMP/Arrowhead 140, PPA or even FREMM can be consider as additional build up on Frigates. Remember officially they are aiming 12 Frigates, and I do think budget can only achieve that in 2 terms.

Note:
Yes, all indication on Harrier shown Indonesia not going to take the offer. Just like Spain give their AV-8A as part of deal to Thai Carrier, Italy seems try to offer similar thing. Basically they just want to get rid of AV-8B, and give excuse to add more F-35B for their VSTOL operation.

U212NS is part of Interim Submarine, as just like FMP, Scorpene will take time to build by PAL. So again rumours Italy offer to switch 2 of their production line as in PPA. They face Chinese offer of Yuan class (039), and again rumours talk unlike with Thai and Pakistan, China also offer to switch 2 of their current production line to Indonesia. Thus it will be on their own PLAN standard and not export version.

 

[tonnyc]

(Snip)
If the Indonesian government cancels the IKN Project and fight/solve those huge corruption cases seriously, then they can save a lot of money. Enough to strengthen the financial buffer.

Canceling the new capital will not save much money if we then use it to buy a carrier. We get one old carrier with maybe some Harriers and it will end up docked in port with the occasional trip to carry passengers "mudik" around Eid al-Fitr. Screw that.

Canceling it will also incur a political cost as non-Javanese people will see this as Jakartan politicians trying to preserve their domination of national politics.

Trying to cut on expenses in order to buy distractions like the Garibaldi or the F-15 ID or Type 212NS is not saving money. It's more like using money that ought to be used for fixing the kitchen in order to buy a luxury car. Rationalize the armed forces instead. Rather than some antiquated view on needing heavy fighters, get more Rafale and benefit from the economy of scale. Do we need a carrier? Hell no. If we want a drone platform, just extend the landing platform docks. Yes, that's insufficient for launching STOL MALE drones, but WTF do we need to launch those from a ship? We can launch those from land. Need more submarines? Then get more from South Korea. The idea that the South Koreans don't know how to build submarines is preposterous. The South Koreans gave us exactly what we paid for. If we want more, pay more. Switching to a French or German builder will not change this equation. We would be better off incrementally improving the Nagapasa class and get some economy of scale rather than switching to yet another supplier.

 

[Ananda]

I still put hope the finance guys will then put sanity checks in the end. Just like previous stage on Fighters procurement that resulted Rafale wins. Dasault also conduct lobbying to increase Rafale from present 42, and that's can only happen in the costs of other program either KF-21 or F-15ID/EX.

This all just shown how lobbyists battle in MinDef are heating up. In the end realities of budget by Finance People that will provide hopefully sanity checks.

 

[koxinga]

View attachment 52393

PAL FB shown online news on their progress. One of them is recent (at least from what they claim) their Semarang Docks where FMP being assembly from modules that they are manufacture. Seems they already shown preparation for bridge modules to be assembly in to the rest of superstructure.

If this is latest image, personally I still have doubt that the first FMP will be ready for launch by June this year as PAL CEO claim in the meeting in Parliament. Perhaps if all modules are ready then they practically only going to do the assembly for next three months. Still it is tight schedule for a Frigate that's first product model for the Yard.

I am pretty sure that this (the photo being FMP modules) is bullshit.

You can see similar photo here of Semarang dock, with exactly the same modules in the dry dock and the same white superstructure module, taken in 2015. It is likely one of the original 10514/Martadinata-class superstructure.

PT PAL Indonesia (Persero) · QPWV+5HG, Jalan Ujung, Ujung, Kec. Semampir, Surabaya, Jawa Timur 60155, Indonesia

★★★★★ · Shipyard

maps.app.goo.gl

 

[Ananda]

Then it is raise more questions on how first FMP can be launch by mid this year as PAL CEO claim in Parliament. Current PAL CEO is not first time to talk on grandiose achievements of PAL.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

I am pretty sure that this (the photo being FMP modules) is bullshit.

You can see similar photo here of Semarang dock, with exactly the same modules in the dry dock and the same white superstructure module, taken in 2015. It is likely one of the original 10514/Martadinata-class superstructure.

PT PAL Indonesia (Persero) · QPWV+5HG, Jalan Ujung, Ujung, Kec. Semampir, Surabaya, Jawa Timur 60155, Indonesia

★★★★★ · Shipyard

maps.app.goo.gl

You are right, that's one the two modules made by Koninklijke Schelde and later transported to PAL for the SIGMA 10514 program. It also doesn't look like the bridge and mast of an Iver Huitveldt.

Thank you.

 

[koxinga]

Balancing US/West and China on defence and trade also become factors now which potential buying Chinese defense items or opening more on Chinese investments vs US and Western ones become one big consideration. For that Frenchie, Italian and Turkiye seems become more acceptable sources of defense items as being considered more acceptable Geopolitics and Economics wise.

Not a military comment but this issue is of "balance" through military purchase is a misguided view, especially if policy makers actually hold such views.

In the first place, does the receipient (e.g China) of Indonesia's purchase look more favourably at Indonesia because it choose a Type 052D over a FREMM? Likewise, after decades of so called "balancing" say with French, Russia, US, Turkiye, does it translate to any actual benefits to Indonesia at a strategic level?

I find very little evidence of that ROI, while on the other hand, the cost of having such mixed platforms is definitely very real, financially. If Singapore can achieve the same level of influence with China, while buying F-35s and having military training in Taiwan, Australia and the US, then it seems buying weapons = buying relationship is a very shallow type of statecraft.

In terms of Chinese investments / OBOR, there are other civilian options, whether the signed Jakarta-Bandung Speed Train, or the various MOUs (e.g Weda Bay Industrial Estate in Halmahera). And this is true for other countries.

 

[Ananda]

Not a military comment but this issue is of "balance" through military purchase is a misguided view, especially if policy makers actually hold such views.

Well I disagree with that, especially condition and geopolitics situation differed from country to country. Singapore is a major Trading and Financial hub, and China and US will see differently against Indonesia which more consumption market, commodities producers and more importantly large sea teritorial with Strategic chocke points in major trade routes.

Likewise, after decades of so called "balancing" say with French, Russia, US, Turkiye, does it translate to any actual benefits to Indonesia at a strategic level?

The condition of balancing as I or other Indonesian members have put in Indonesian thread related to external and internal politics. For Internal politics it is matter to balance the need of more Western leaning against Non-Western leaning camps. As Strategic level, Indonesia wants to stay in the middle and balancing on Defense items do provide diplomatic capitals to stay in the middle.

Personally I see the act on balancing toward defense items procurement and Co-op aimed more to balance internal factions political needs then Geopolitics. However external pressure to balance the trade also more and more matter especially after Trump in power.

When CAATSA come, factions that more pros to Russia or China demand to also dump procurement from US. The balance is finding suppliers that more acceptable and the likes French, Italian and Turkiye are part of the results. This is also related to experiences during East Timor crisis, where French as example was faster to reopen Defense supply then US and UK. Thus ISTAR free items become one of main reasons.

terms of Chinese investments / OBOR, there are other civilian options, whether the signed Jakarta-Bandung Speed Train, or the various MOUs (e.g Weda Bay Industrial Estate in Halmahera). And this is true for other countries.

Off Course, and Chinese Investment for PRC POV is more important then Defense items co-op so far. However China is also want to have defense co-op asside Investments access. There are serious discusion between finance guys and MinDef to dump F-15EX with more Rafale, both from Strategic and Industrial-Economics POV, it is also see as balance to China. However when Trump wins and see his pressure to all US trade partners to balance the trade, at least from my understanding it is become moot on cancelling US defence procurement even those who still on MoU's stage. Not say all will be finalise, but there are more pressures to finalise them now then before Trump.

Thus the calculation change a bit as now also means has to give something on defence contract with China. Before China seems ok with Indonesia not procuring from them, as long as the procurement doesn't come from US. Considering Indonesia geopolitics and geographic possition, seems when you buy something from US, then have to giving something to China too. Indonesian Navy and Coast Guard are facing Chinese Coast Guard and Navy on SCS Indonesian part (Natuna Sea), thus procuring 1-2 Vessels from China seems is the price when you also procuring US fighters as example. It is part of confidence level to China on matter to add more Investment in Indonesia (which Indonesia and rest of ASEAN need).

Thus I disagree balancing defense procurement is not necessary. Especially for Indonesia case toward Strategic possition that want to sit on the middle. Something that India also doing.