The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

rsemmes · Dec 18, 2024

"... wouldn't be aimed at an official". I strongly disagree with your concept of terrorism. (Hitting power stations is aimed.)

"Is killing serving members of the armed forces of a country which is fighting your country terrorism?" Serving members, active members, members...

No one denies that is a fair target, like a power station.

I find the use of "audacious" disgusting. It seems that some people is quite happy with that use in those circumstances.

Feanor · Dec 18, 2024

rsemmes said:
I was talking about the killing.

On the other hand, someone (Russia, for example) could argue that he is procuring arms for Ukraine, so he is actively involve in the war; I don't think Kirilov was actually fighting. Zaluzhny was certainly involved in the war, is there any statute of limitations?
Zaluzhny is only an example, I find the "audacious" disgusting.

It's a uniformed Russian general killed in a time of war. He's a legitimate military target.

swerve said:
Kirilov was the commander of a branch of the Russian armed forces. Is killing serving members of the armed forces of a country which is invading your country terrorism?

The US killed Iraqi generals during the war in Iraq, and they weren't invading the US. They were still a legitimate target. It doesn't even matter who's at fault in the war, Ukraine hit a Russian commanding officer during a war with Russia. There's nothing particularly questionable about this.

rsemmes · Dec 18, 2024

I do agree from the beginning, what I find questionable/disgusting is the use of "audacious".

rsemmes · Dec 18, 2024

Regarding that French-trained brigade, its AWOL and the change of commander... And those new units Feanor was talking about.
It has been used as a organ donor, not as a bde, not even by btn, just as replacements; no drones, no anti-drones and all thanks to the Ukrainian High Command.

« Qu’est-il arrivé à la 155e… ? Même le fait que les Français aient tenté de spécialiser la brigade ne l’a pas protégée des décisions militaires stupides de nos généraux qui ont démantelé l’unité »
...
Le ministère des Armées ajoute que, concernant la demande d’un député de fournir des drones à la 155e brigade, la censure du gouvernement et la démission des ministres ont « suspendu » toutes les sollicitations. Y compris les plus urgentes.
...
« la principale cause des défaites de nos troupes dans la direction de Pokrovsk est la gestion incompétente des troupes ». « Pas l’avantage numérique de l’ennemi, pas le manque de soldats que nous avons, mais la gestion et l’organisation des troupes, poursuit-il. La grande majorité des commandants d’unités à Pokrovsk disent la même chose. »

Victime des «décisions militaires stupides», la 155e brigade, formée en France, en partie démantelée dès son retour en Ukraine

La 155e brigade mécanisée ukrainienne, lourdement armée et formée par la France c...

www.lavoixdunord.fr

KipPotapych · Dec 19, 2024

^ Read a couple of articles about it in some outlet in English and Ukrainian outlets a few days ago. It’s a shame. One of the reasons I highly doubt there is some serious counteroffensive incoming. Maybe some incursion attempt with little likelihood of success (well, considering the Russian past decision making, you cannot discount anything, really).

On the subject of the assassination of Gen. Kirillov and wording in the media, today/yesterday I read various articles using such words as audacious, brave, ingenuity, a blow (to Russia), embarrassment, etc. Sorry, I am not going to provide any citations because it is not exactly relevant. But since it was brought up, not really sure what is audacious, brave, or ingenious about it. This is as raw as it gets, there is nothing special about it. As for the blow and embarrassment… Not really. “Blow” is completely irrelevant since this matters very little, if at all. Embarrassment? Again, not sure what is embarrassing here. This is more like a punch in the nuts. At the same time, however, the opponent (Ukraine) cannot reach above the nuts, so nuts is the logical choice. Overall, way more hype than the event is worth. This sums it up rather well, in my opinion:

Experts and intelligence officials credited Ukrainian counterintelligence for thwarting such plots, but said Russia was also less reliant — intentionally so — on covert operations than Ukraine. Unlike Ukraine, Russia can fire long-range missiles that can hit anywhere, and were likely using their operatives for intelligence gathering and weapons targeting, rather than assassinations, said Ralph Goff, a former senior C.I.A. official, who stills travels frequently to Ukraine.

For the Ukrainians, carrying out assassinations, he said, “is a strategy of necessity because it’s all they got.”

Killing of Russian General Sends a Message, but Doesn’t Change the War for Ukraine

Ukraine’s forces are steadily losing ground on the battlefield. The assassination of a top general in Moscow won’t improve their war effort, analysts and Western officials say.

www.nytimes.com

Another question is whether this is productive. In my opinion, it is not and likely the opposite. It’s not like they eliminated a Zhukov or someone like that. These guys are probably a dime a dozen (no disrespect to the departed, especially since I know next to nothing about the man). In other words, it has zero purpose as far as the war effort is concerned. Russia has probably put more generals and other high ranking officials to their own (Russian) jails on corruption charges than Ukrainians have killed since the invasion. Some who seemed and thought of by the their peers and analysts as most capable have also been arrested or sent to Africa. So yes, there is no ingenuity and audacity to these irrelevant events. At least it wasn’t another unsuspected driver on the bridge, another Dugina or what’s his name… Tatarskiy or something like that, and no bystanders or wive, kids, etc were involved.

On this note, I also want to mention the following. I am not sure what to call them, really, but these social media “generals, economists, war strategists, and all other experts” that are completely detached from reality are getting extremely annoying. Moreover, some of the best analysts are being affected. I talked about it several times previously here, but it is getting to the next level now. Mike Kofman recently said that he practically stopped posting on X because of this very reason. The fella from Spain nicknamed Jompy (the counter I am sure most are familiar with) also recently stated that he is quiting “the business” at the end of the year because of this very reason. This French scholar with some excellent analysis and commentary, whose name I cannot recall at the moment for whatever reason, stopped posting because of this same crowd a couple of months ago. Many other individuals I know of have significantly cut down their posting activity or stopped completely in the past few months because of these very imbeciles. Two days ago, the “crew” accused Mark Galeotti (in my opinion, the best western expert on Russia today, hands down, and not many even come close) of working for Russia and Russian oligarchs and whatever other rubbish, where he actually felt the need to speak up and defend himself (crazy, right?). Tatarigami, the fella from Ukraine with mostly great insights, was also (again) accused yesterday (a couple of days ago?) of being either a defeatist at best or a Russian troll at worst. Personally, I am not sure why anyone cares, but it clearly affects people. Today, a fella named Preston Stewart, who actually raised funds for the Ukrainian war effort, made his X account private after making a comment about the means of this Kirollov elimination, that it might have some eye brows raised and be seen in negative light (he isn’t necessarily wrong). What happened after him making that comment was the “crew” with personal attacks of ridiculous level, and so on. I don’t particularly care for Preston singularly, but we are losing some of the best analysts and insights about this war and other topics as well. The crew is greatly enabled by the likes of Gen. Ben Hodges (discussed previously and I think that was the nail in the coffin for Mike Kofman). There are, of course, many others, including some made “famous” by this war guys that graduated with a Bachelor in Psychology, ran a baseball stats website until the invasion, who are probably pretty good at statistics and spreadsheets, often enough have good insights and are quoted by thousands of individuals. They now, however, declare themselves experts in warfare, economics, international relations, you name it, and attack people who have been studying this stuff their entire lives; and they bring the “fandom” along into the echo chamber. I am not going to mention any particular names, but the aforementioned is a real life example. This circus has gotten out of hand and has some real consequences (see fundraisers shutting down their accounts as an obvious example).

koxinga · Dec 19, 2024

KPA Weapons Tracker noted at least a battalion (18 to 20 ) Koksan / M1989s moving through Russia.

KPA fighting in Ukraine on large scale certainly was not on my bingo card this year.

x.com

Feanor · Dec 19, 2024

Feanor said:
I'm fairly confident Russia has a maximalist starting position, a compromise target, and a minimum line beyond which they won't agree to any peace. The question is where these lines are.

Putin just stated that Russia is ready to negotiate with Ukraine without preconditions and wants them to be based on the Istanbul Accords with a "consideration of realities on the ground" (i.e. Russia expects to keep territories). Note this runs in principle counter to prior statements that seemed to say that Ukraine needs to evacuate all territories Russian annexed before negotiations could begin but that statement always looked suspicious and likely not an accurate statement of Russia's position.

I wouldn't be surprised if Russia is willing to accept something close to the current line of contact as the basis for a permanent settlement, possibly trading some territory in Kharkov region for some additional ground in the Donbas. And if Russia is really preparing to negotiate, it might explain both why they're not starting the battle for Pokrovsk (so as not to be stuck in the middle of the city when the war ends) and why Russia is so enthusiastically trying to blast their way through Toretsk instead of trying to encircle the city and force a Ukrainian withdrawal.

In other words, it's possible we're about to see an actual attempt to end the war through diplomacy. However it's also possible that Russia expects to get the rest of Donetsk region or even Zaporozhye and Kherson handed over to them as part of a resolution. And I suspect Russia won't accept a ceasefire, only an actual peace treaty with a formal recognition of the territory they've taken. They certainly shouldn't accept a ceasefire if they have any good sense. Conspicuously absent is anything about sanctions.

On a side note Putin also opposed any international peacekeepers without Russian approval, for obvious reasons. And he also mentions that Russia will only negotiate with a legitimate government in Ukraine. This may or may not mean they won't talk to Zelensky. I suspect this is a fall back position to use if negotiations aren't going well.

Условия для начала переговоров с Украиной: требования Путина, что должен сделать Зеленский

Россия готова вести мирные переговоры с Украиной без каких-либо предварительных условий, но только с легитимными властями. Об этом заявил президент Владимир Путин в ходе прямой линии, совмещенной с ежегодной пресс-конференцией

lenta.ru

Fredled · Dec 19, 2024

KipPotapych said:
On the subject of the assassination of Gen. Kirillov

The medias and everyone on the blogosphere and youtubosphere wants to make sensational news, daily and constantly, to get viewers. That's whay they will always inflate the importance of any event. Their job is to make ypou believe that the event they are talking about is extremely important and extraordinary.
Personally I don't pay much attention to this.

Now, was the Kirillov assassination worth it?
If Ukrainians did it, it means that it was worth it in their opinion.
For them, eliminating any member of the Russian military or of the propaganda aparatus is worth it.

There are two scenario:
1/ Kirillov was killed because they had an opportunity to kill him and it worked.

2/ They targeted him for a good reason.
Kirillov was not a half-retired general sitting somewhere in the Siberian far east. According to the description of his job he could be either important or very important. I don't say that he was important, only that he could be important.

Russians said that they caught a suspect who admitted being paid $100 000. This is a big sum in Russia (especialy if in USD).
here, again, two scenario:
1/ This is a story completely made up to reassure Russian civilians and military personel alike, and to show that terrorsists do that for money.
2/ It's true, and it means that Ukrainians were ready to offer a bounty this big for Kirillov.
_________________

Feanor said:
Putin just stated that Russia is ready to negotiate with Ukraine without preconditions and wants them to be based on the Istanbul Accords with a "consideration of realities on the ground" (i.e. Russia expects to keep territories).

It's a fact that there is increasing speculations in the medias about ceasefire talks.
Yet nothing concretely so far from either side.

I don;t have the feeling that Putin is refraining from some action because peace or ceasefire talks would start soon. If he finds himself in the middle of Pokrovsk when peace talks begin, so what? Build a Berlin wall in the middle of the city and case closed.
Maybe, he doesn't try to take Pokrovsk at any cost anymore because he sees that he won't be able to before peace talks begun. But as there is no indication that any peace talks are about to start, it's rather that he sees that he won;t take the town right now in any case. I mean, there is a difference between not trying as much as possible and deciding to put it on hold.

IMO, Zelensky and Putin will express on the medias a willingness to negotiate in order to be nice with Trump and influence his decisions. But this will be facial expressions only, not real intent, let alone facts. War will continue as intensively as possible even as they meet at the negotiation table.

Putin's sayoing that Zelensky is illigitimate is just a tit-for-tat 5response to Zelensky's law to forbid negotiating with Putin. It only underline their unwillingness to talk at the moment.

Feanor · Dec 19, 2024

Fredled said:
The medias and everyone on the blogosphere and youtubosphere wants to make sensational news, daily and constantly, to get viewers. That's whay they will always inflate the importance of any event. Their job is to make ypou believe that the event they are talking about is extremely important and extraordinary.
Personally I don't pay much attention to this.

Now, was the Kirillov assassination worth it?
If Ukrainians did it, it means that it was worth it in their opinion.
For them, eliminating any member of the Russian military or of the propaganda aparatus is worth it.

There are two scenario:
1/ Kirillov was killed because they had an opportunity to kill him and it worked.

2/ They targeted him for a good reason.
Kirillov was not a half-retired general sitting somewhere in the Siberian far east. According to the description of his job he could be either important or very important. I don't say that he was important, only that he could be important.

Russians said that they caught a suspect who admitted being paid $100 000. This is a big sum in Russia (especialy if in USD).
here, again, two scenario:
1/ This is a story completely made up to reassure Russian civilians and military personel alike, and to show that terrorsists do that for money.
2/ It's true, and it means that Ukrainians were ready to offer a bounty this big for Kirillov.
_________________

It's not that big of a bounty. Look up the cost of a single cruise missile.

It's a fact that there is increasing speculations in the medias about ceasefire talks.
Yet nothing concretely so far from either side.

I don;t have the feeling that Putin is refraining from some action because peace or ceasefire talks would start soon. If he finds himself in the middle of Pokrovsk when peace talks begin, so what? Build a Berlin wall in the middle of the city and case closed.
Maybe, he doesn't try to take Pokrovsk at any cost anymore because he sees that he won't be able to before peace talks begun. But as there is no indication that any peace talks are about to start, it's rather that he sees that he won;t take the town right now in any case. I mean, there is a difference between not trying as much as possible and deciding to put it on hold.

I think it's a combination of several factors. Pokrovsk itself is about the same size as Artemovsk/Bakhmut. But right next to it is Mirnograd with another ~47 000 population. And there is a large number of outlying villages that are de-facto suburbs. I couldn't find a good figure for the metropolitan area, but I suspect the entire thing is a population of somewhere between 120-150 000. And Artemovsk/Bakhmut took months of fighting through. Some might point out that Russia has better use of UAVs and gliding bombs these days, and this is true. But look at Toretsk. It's still a slow fight. Granted the Donetsk area gets more resources but in general I think the fight for Pokrovsk itself could well take anywhere from 4-12 months depending on a variety of factors.

IMO, Zelensky and Putin will express on the medias a willingness to negotiate in order to be nice with Trump and influence his decisions. But this will be facial expressions only, not real intent, let alone facts. War will continue as intensively as possible even as they meet at the negotiation table.

Agreed. It's the only thing that makes sense.

Putin's sayoing that Zelensky is illigitimate is just a tit-for-tat 5response to Zelensky's law to forbid negotiating with Putin. It only underline their unwillingness to talk at the moment.

I think it's less about unwillingness to talk in principle for Russia and more of a response. I also think it's one way for Russia to explain a breakdown in negotiations as "not our fault, he's illegitimate". I would agree that if the sides want to talk, they will step over these objections themselves relatively easily.

Fredled · Dec 20, 2024

The oil plant in Rostov was hit by a French SCALP missile.

Xavier Tytelman said:
As far as I know, this is the first time a French missile of this type has been used. We have images that confirm this, and we know one specific type of such missile - SCALP, with a range of 300 km, fired from Ukrainian Su-24 fighters.

At the time, we didn't know exactly what it was, because it's very hard to tell the difference between the British Storm Shadow and the French Scalp

300 kilometers is the maximum distance we can deliver to Ukraine in compliance with international standards. We have carefully studied the map and also checked the images of the wreckage. These are identifiable pieces of debris with stickers that are typical of French equipment

________________
Russian still active in the Dniepr Delta:
Enemy persists in its efforts to capture Kozatskyi Island

According to Ukrinform, most attacks are in still in Pokrovsk sector
________________
Zelensky comments on the so called "Istambul Agreement":

Zelemsky said:
In general, I am surprised by his statement that he [Putin] is ready for something, he constantly says that I am illegitimate... The ultimatum contained, and they always talk about it, 'demilitarization' and 'denazification'... The main Nazi on the planet today, Putin, is talking about denazification of Ukrainians... Demilitarization, so that there would be no army in Ukraine, or something like that, I don't remember... they talked about 40-50,000…. He simply offered Ukraine to surrender, freeze the conflict, change the direction of development-neither Europe nor NATO, but the direction to the Russian Federation, so that they could rule our state, deprive us of our independence. And this person says that these are some kind of agreements... He is just an old fantasist. He lives in another world, in his own aquarium

Their 'messengers' in different directions, using different sources, showed us the details of this ultimatum. These messengers are not in Ukraine, they have already fled to Russia or abroad. In any case, Ukraine did not agree to the Russian ultimatum. They tried to take the following steps: somewhere they softened their position on this ultimatum, these were meetings in Belarus and Turkey, and they called these meetings the “Istanbul agreements.” Ukraine did not sign anything, there were no agreements, it was a response to the Russian ultimatum

seaspear · Dec 20, 2024

Fredled said:
The oil plant in Rostov was hit by a French SCALP missile.
_______I think you will find that the Scalp and Storm Shadow missile are identical missiles made by the U.K and France different names just reflect which country made them

France to Send Additional SCALP, Mistral Missiles to Ukraine

France announced that Paris will send additional SCALP missiles and the Mistral short-range air defense missile system to Ukraine.

thedefensepost.com

KipPotapych · Dec 21, 2024

Russian missile/drone (often one of a dozen or more) strikes clearly civilian infrastructure: they do that on purpose to terrorize the population and show the people that the war is not only there but also here and these are war crimes and terrorism and so on.

Ukrainian drones (2 out of three or so?) hit clearly civilian infrastructure: this cannot be on purpose because they wouldn’t waste the capability and planning to hit these buildings and hit something valuable instead; it just shows how complex long-range strike planning is and thus the strikes have gotta be accidental.

The first paragraph is the usual media and analysts’ deductions about the Russian strikes (which include falling debris from intercepts or the interceptors themselves). The second is today’s media coverage and analysts’ deductions about the strike on Kazan.

From my post on the previous page:

By looking at that map, it is not hard to guess the route these drones followed to get all the way to Kazan.

Feanor · Dec 23, 2024

There are some interesting developments. Russia's foothold across the Oskol is expanding and Russia now holds most of Rakovo neighborhood in Dvurechnoe. The river frontage is now about double what it was to start with at this spot, and there is a real chance Russia will take the entire village. Meanwhile there are continuous unconfirmed reports, including from Ukrainian sources, that Russia has a foothold across the Dnepr in Kherson city near the Antonov bridge. Note this would a mirror operation to what Ukraine did on the left shore previously. And this might not indicate a general offensive, but there are continuous rumors circulating that Russia intends to cross the river.

wild_Willie2 · Dec 25, 2024

There are strong indications that todays Azerbaijan E190 Crash in Kazakhstan was caused by damage inflicted by an surface to air missile while the plane was flying over Russian territory...

Link to video and image report on the impact damage on the plane.

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1028: Situation on Kursk front: - At Sudzhansky district Russian Army took up new positions in Gluboky Yar north of the Kruglen'koe farms. In addition, Russian forces made significant advances from the east, where troops were able to take most of Russkoe Porechnoe and...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Штурмовики 11 бригады ВДВ установили флаг ВДВ в центре Черкасской Конопельки, полностью зачистив и взяв под контроль район посёлка в Курской области Десантники из Забайкалья продолжают атаки, освобождая приграничье от оккупантов. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

A video from the Russian side of Russia striking something in the village of Basovka, Sumy region. This system might a DPRK ATGMs.

Военный Осведомитель

Работа чего-то интересного по украинской бронетехнике и пункту дислокации в селе Басовка Сумской области. Видео: @The_Wrong_Side Военный Осведомитель

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian wire-guided drones double-tap a Ukrainian M109 hidden in the trees, Kursk region.

Ещё одна поплохевшая 155-мм САУ М109 ВСУ в Сумской области. 86-ая подтвержденная по счету. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russian forces haul away a captured M113 MEDEVAC and FV432 APC.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Модернизированный ЗРК 9К33М3 «Оса-АКМ» с авиационными ракетами Р-73 класса «воздух-воздух», задействованный в ходе наступления ВСУ в Курской области. Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Использование модернизированных в рамках программы HORNET украинских ЗРК «Оса-АКМ» с ракетами "воздух-воздух" малого радиуса во время вторжения в Курскую область. Архивные кадры. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Allegedly a North Korean POW in Ukrainian hands.

Военный Осведомитель

Якобы первый пленный северокорейский солдат, попавший в руки ВСУ. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Ukraine hit the towns of Ryl'sk and L'gov with HIMARS strikes, hitting what appears to be civilian structures. 4 civilian dead reported in L'gov and 6 in Ryl'sk.

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1036: Situation on northeastern front: Russian Army continue increasing the bridgehead on the western shore of Oskil River taking control over a series of positions in the direction of Zapadne & Kalynove. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1037: Situation on northeastern front: - At Dvorichna district Russian Army took continue advancing within the locality of Dvorichna entering in the town council. - At Borivska district Russian forces captured new areas of Zahryzove. Map: [...

t.me

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1039: Situation on Chasov Yar: During the last days Russian Army managed to capture most of Hryhorivka after weeks of positional battles. In addition, Russian forces continue advancing north of Chasov Yar city taking control over Desiatyi district. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1038: Situation on Chasov Yar front: Russian Army took full control over Pivnichnyi district north of the city. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.59098019886791%2C37.8603940305433&z=13 ]

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1034: Situation on Chasov Yar front: Russian Army reentered again in many areas of Pivnichnyi district. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.59383344185566%2C37.840226083850936&z=14 ]

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1030: Situation on Chasov Yar: Ukrainian Army completely recapture the refractary plant. Meanwhile, Russian army began the assault to the district of Novyy from the north. Map: [...

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Бои в Торецке и за Нью-Йорком: Армия России уничтожает технику врага ▪️За Нью-Йорком бойцы 9 бригады 51 армии уничтожили 2 БТР "Казак". ▪️Операторы дронов 80 ОРБ "Спарта" 51 оа уничтожили пикап, осуществлявший снабжение ВСУ на опорных пунктах. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

A Ukrainian Bradley hit a land mine and gets finished off, catching fire, near Toretsk.

Военный Осведомитель

Добивание наехавшей на мины БМП M2A2 Bradley ODS-SA на Торецком направлении. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1028: Situation on Pokrovsk front: Russian Army in the urban area of Dachenske & captured half of the locality. In addition, Russian forces reached the eastern outskirts of Novovasylivka from Novotroits'ke. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1027: Situation on Pokrovsk front: Russian Army advanced west of Shevchenko & established in the pond south of Pishchane. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.20816578066857%2C37.10551810796281&z=13 ]

t.me

Russian vehicles that entered Novoelizavetovka carried very robust drone-cages that appeared to survive multiple FPV drone strikes.

Dambiev

Довольно эффективные защитные козырьки на российских БМП и танках, вошедших в село Новоелизаветовка сильно южнее Покровска. На опубликованных противником кадрах видно, что бронетехника находится под плотными ударами FPV-дронов, однако даже прямые попадания не выводят ее из строя. Также машины...

t.me

Russian flag raising in Novoolenovka, south of Pokrovsk.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Как «️тважные» освобождали Новооленовку, наступая под Покровском ▪️Бойцы Группировки войск «Центр» в ходе наступления подняли флаг России, освободив населённый пункт Новооленовка в ДНР, и продолжают громить боевиков ВСУ, освобождая земли Донецкой Народной Республики. Слава русской пехоте...

t.me

Russian Grad fires near Pokrovsk. Grad use has gotten significantly less common this war.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russia hits a Ukrainian Ural inside Pokrovsk.

Военный Осведомитель

Добивание брошенного украинского УРАЛа в Покровске ударом FPV-дрона на оптоволокне. На фоне местная жительница идет выбрасывать мусор (даже в прифронтовом городе!), оператор дрона терпеливо дожидается пока женщина покинет зону поражения. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Two Roshel Senator armored cars getting hit.

Военный Осведомитель

Уничтожение FPV-дронами двух бронеавтомобилей Roshel Senator ВСУ на Покровском направлении. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Ukrainian Leo-2A4s getting hit by Russian drones near Pokrovsk.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Военный Осведомитель

Поражение несколькими FPV-дронами украинского Leopard 2A4 на Покровском направлении. Один удар пришелся в борт корпуса и еще парочка в борт башни. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russian Molniya drone strikes near Pokrovsk.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️⚡️«Молнии» сжигают пулемётные точки, поддерживая наступление «️тважных» на Покровск ▪️Сибирский спецназ «Вега» группировки войск «Центр» точечными ударами ударных дронов самолётного типа «Молния» уничтожает огневые позиции ВСУ, поддерживая атаки штурмовых подразделений при освобождении...

Russian forces haul away two more knocked out Kirpi MRAPs and have captured an M113 MEDEVAC.

Colonelcassad

Покровское направление. Ещё два турецких бронеавтомобиля BMC Kirpi пополнили коллекцию трофеев. @voenacher

t.me

Colonelcassad

Покровское направление. Ещё один американский БТР М113 пополняет коллекцию трофеев группировки войск «Центр». @btr80

t.me

A destroyed Leo-1A5 near Shevchenko, south of Pokrovsk.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukraine's 155th Mech has shown up near Pokrovsk. Earlier reporting said the unit broke up into btlns and was sent to different sections of the front piecemeal.

Военный Осведомитель

Подразделения 155-й ОМБр им. Анны Киевской ВСУ, которая в прошлом месяце завершила подготовку во Франции, были переброшены на участок фронта на Покровском направлении. Как ранее отмечала украинский народный депутат Марьяна Безуглая, подразделения бригады были по отдельности приданы другим...

t.me

Russian Giatsint-S in the Pokrovsk area.

Военный Осведомитель

Боевая работа расчёта 152-мм самоходной пушки 2С5 «Гиацинт-С» группировки войск «Центр» на Красноармейском направлении. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Кровавый разгром на Кураховском направлении: 255 полк встретил огнём десант и технику ВСУ ▪️На Кураховском направлении бойцы волгоградского полка встретили и разгромили контратакующий десант ВСУ на БМП и пикапах в ходе продолжающейся наступательной операции в глубину обороны врага. ▪️Расчёты...

t.me

Russian flag raising in the multi-story buildings of Kurakhovo. Note the town appears to be mostly intact. We have battle damage but not the kind of destruction we see in Toretsk.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian AMX-10RCs have shown up near the front line again for the first time in a while. One got hit near Kurakhovo. It's possible this is a piece of the new 155th Mech. This is near the Sukhie Yaly river.

Осведомитель

На Кураховском направлении был уничтожен редкий французский легкий колесный танк AMX-10RC ВСУ. В последний раз эта фольга попала в объективы российских дронов в октябре, а дебютировала же во время неудачного украинского контрнаступления в Запорожской области летом 2023 года. Осведомитель

t.me

bmpd

Уничтожение из ПТРК колёсного танка AMX-10RC ВСУ в районе реки Сухие Ялы на Кураховском направлении. Кадры: @voin_dv Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russian strike on a Ukrainian M113 near Dachnoe, west of Kurakhovo. The vehicle is reportedly immobilized by mines before getting hit by drones.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠68 полк сжигает бронетехнику врага у Курахово Бронемашина противника заблудилась, наехала на мины (инженерно-сапёрная рота 68 гвардейского танкового полка постаралась), ей стало холодно и Бирюса (овБпЛА) решил её согреть), на носу всё же новый год. Врага уничтожают хвостовиками и системами...

t.me

A burned out VAB, Ukrainian, in the Kurakhovo area.

Военный Осведомитель

Ещё один загоревший французский БТР VAB ВСУ на Кураховском направлении. Кадр: @rt_russian Военный Осведомитель

vk.com

A now rare Russian Tunguska-M operating in Kherson region.

Военный Осведомитель

Вымирающий вид. Боевая работа экипажа ЗРПК 2К22М «Тунгуска-М» группировки войск «Днепр» в Херсонской области. Кадры: @rt_russian Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Allegedly Russian drone-munition drops on Ukrainian personnel trying to evacuate a wounded.

Colonelcassad

Наши дроноводы уничтожили группу эвакуации укронацистов На Херсонском направлении украинские боевики пытались вынести своего побратима, но поймали сбросы с нашего Mavika. Итог 4 - 200, 4 - 300. @HersonVestnik

t.me

Allegedly Ukraine hit the hospital in Oleshki, killing a doctor. The strike was by an FPV drone, and previously the car belonging to the doctor was blown up. It seems to be part of a campaign by Ukraine to target personnel in occupied areas that are cooperating with Russia.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️ Нацисты атаковали Алешкинскую горбольницу в Херсонской области, убив замглавврача, главный врач в тяжелом состоянии. ▪️Украинский FPV-дрон ударил прямо в окно кабинета главврача Алешкинской больницы. Главный врач - Владимир Харлан ранен и находится в тяжелом состоянии, погиб заместитель...

t.me

Feanor · Tuesday at 3:26 AM

Black Sea/Crimea.

Large explosions were reported near Sevastopol'. Details are lacking and it came after the below image, meaning it's probably not related.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Мощные взрывы в Севастополе: враг атакует с моря ▪️Российские войска уничтожили морской дрон в акватории и сбили несколько беспилотников. Местные жители сообщают, что такого грохота уже давно не было. ▪️Враг публикует фото взрыва в море. ❗️2 беспилотника самолетного типа уничтожены над...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Мощные взрывы в Севастополе несколько часов: армия России отражает комбинированную атаку врага ▪️ Серия мощных взрывов со стороны моря - флот уничтожает БЭКи - морские дроны ВСУ. ▪️Над городом и на подлёте сбиты БПЛА. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

A Russian Mi-8 was hit by an R-73 launched from a Ukrainian unmanned boat. Russian source report it was damaged and returned to base, but confirmation is lacking.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Военный Осведомитель

Ну вот и случилось первое поражение вертолета Ми-8 огнем зенитного украинского БЭК при помощи ракеты Р-73. Эта опасность прослеживалась с момента первого появления весной 2024 года украинских БЭК с ракетами, способными поражать воздушные цели. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

A destroyed unmanned Ukrainian boat near the Crimean shore.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Осведомитель

Морской БЭК противника, который был уничтожен сегодня в Крыму возле мыса Тарханкут. Осведомитель

t.me

Colonelcassad

Западное побережье Крыма, район мыса Тарханкут Как сообщают , сегодня у побережья Крыма бы уничтожен очередной МБЭК противника. @dva_majors

t.me

Strikes.

Near Kiev Russia struck storage near Borispol' and the Luch design bureau in Kiev, and some Russian inbounds fell on Kiev, unclear if targetted or downed.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Киев атакован: гремят взрывы и стрельба ▪️Ударные БпЛА "Герань" носятся над столицей Украины, ВСУ пытаются их сбить. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

‼️‍☠️ Киев атаковали 8 ракет «Искандер»/KN-23 и «Кинжал» ▪️В результате удара зафиксировано "падение обломков" в трех районах города", - сообщили в городской военной администрации. ➖В Голосеевском районе повреждены некие офисные здания, дорожное покрытие и газовая труба с последующей...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️ Сильные взрывы и пожары: атакованы объекты врага в Киеве ▪️В Бориспольском районе под Киевом горят складские помещения после ночной атаки. ▪️В Голосеевском районе в результате падения обломков ракеты горят машины, — Кличко. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russian strike hits the industrial part of Kramatorsk, allegedly targetting Ukrainian missile launchers (HIMARS?). Note we don't have any good information on a Ukrainian strike out of that area landing, but there are reports of one being launched and of Russian air defenses potentially intercepting some inbounds.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠Нанесён удар по промзоне Краматорска, откуда вчера враг выпускал ракеты HIMARS по Ростовской области t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Осведомитель

Над ЛНР и Ростовской областью сработала ПВО, ранее из окрестностей подконтрольного ВСУ Краматорска был зафиксирован выход баллистических ракет ATACMS. О последствиях на земле не сообщается. Осведомитель

t.me

Russian strikes hitting Dnepropetrovsk. Note these two links are for two different dates.

Харьков 25.12.24 наши куда то очень удачно попали

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

По Харькову нанесено несколько ударов «Искандерами». Удары крылатыми ракетами также наносятся по Кременчугу и Днепропетровской области. Укрэнерго сообщает, что в связи с ракетной атакой применены меры ограничения потребления электроэнергии. Отключение света зафиксировано в некоторых районах...

t.me

Russian strikes landing in Krivoy Rog. Note these two links are for two different dates.

vk.com

‼️‍☠Массированная атака врага на Ростовскую область: гремит множество взрывов ▪️Настоящий противовоздушный бой идёт в районах ростовского Донецка , Новошахтинска и Каменск-Шахтинского, люди пишут, что дрожит земля и дома, много сбитий. ▪️Армия России отражает атаку ракет. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Ukraine hit a fuel base in Novo-Shahtinsk, Rostov region.

❗️Средства ПВО отражают атаку БПЛА в Ростове-на-Дону и Новочеркасске. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Dambiev

Перехват украинского БпЛА-камикадзе средствами ПВО ВС РФ в небе над Сальском Ростовской области.

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Враг атаковал Ростовскую область ▪️В Сальске армия России сбила 2 БПЛА. Осколки одного упали и выбили стёкла в локомотивном депо, пострадавших нет, сообщил губернатор. ▪️Также около полудня в Усть-Донецком районе сбит вражеский БПЛА. Пострадавших и разрушений на земле нет. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Взрывы в Ростове-на-Дону: в центре дым и запах гари ▪️"Левый берег затянуло пеленой, в воздухе запах гари (центр)", - сообщают местные каналы. ▪️Возможно звуки взрывов - это результат работы российских войск за городом. ▪️Также мониторинговые каналы сообщали, что на Таганрог возможна...

t.me

Unsuccessful Ukrainian missile strikes are being reported in Tokmak and Berdyansk.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠Враг атаковал ракетами Storm Shadow Бердянск и Токмак ▪️Губернатор Запорожской области заявил, что все ракеты сбиты, а обломки упали в море и поле. ▪️Ранее сообщалось об атаке ракет по Ростовской области. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

A blog I haven't seen until recently did an interesting analysis of the recent Oreshnik strike on Yuzhmash using satellite images they purchased. They did a whole analysis of how allegedly impressive the damage is, only to be immediately proven wrong. The images they received showed no new damage from the Oreshnik strike at all. Which creates quite the mystery. One possibility is that commercial services are editing the images they release. I don't think there are any operators of commercial satellites that don't have some official or unofficial link to a national government. Google's SkyBox (for example) is buried under piles of government regulation. So it's not impossible that they are. The other options are that the strike hit the target and produced no visible damage, a most unlikely scenario, or that the strike missed the majority of the plant entirely. Neither of these options look particularly likely, bringing us back to the "they edited the images". However... it's not clear. Really we've actually learned nothing, and not much of value is revealed here, but I didn't want to leave this information out incase anyone came across claims based on it. Meanwhile the new missile system remains a mystery.

Oh and the blog should be regarded and fairly pro-Russian. The other posts on it mainly talk about how western weapons have been a letdown in Ukraine's war effort. Which is true in some sense, certain parts of the internet certainly thought they were wonder-weapons and were subsequently let down, but I don't think the people making decisions and helping Ukraine plan their war effort actually believed that sort of nonsense.

Yuzhmash and Oreshnik Demystified

I blew several hundred dollars on commercial satellite imagery

www.amerikanets.com

Mea Maxima Culpa

My previous analysis was completely wrong

www.amerikanets.com

Feanor · Tuesday at 3:27 AM

Other interesting bits.

A destroyed allegedly Ukrainian PETRA Hunter APC B6, we haven't seen this vehicle in Ukraine before.

Dambiev

Камрадами с канала https://t.me/Rubric_lossesvsu/25410 найден уничтоженный PETRA Hunter APC B6 украинских формирований. Ранее, подобный тип бронеавтомобилей, производимых Иорданией, в потерях не фигурировал…

t.me

Russian sources report a Russian Ka-52 lost to friendly fire. Details are lacking.

Осведомитель

К сожалению ушедший день принес и печальные новости. Во время боевого вылета был потерян вертолет Ка-52, экипаж погиб. Предварительная причина - дружественный огонь ПВО. Осведомитель

t.me

A Russian BMP-2 doing indirect-fire. The effectiveness of this is questionable.

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Стрельба БМП-2 с комплектом дополнительной защиты ВС РФ непрямой наводкой. Какой с этого толк сказать сложно.

t.me

Some footage of Russian Gibka-S SAMs in the war zone.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A pair of Russian ersatz systems, a depth-charge launcher on a T-80 chassis, and an MT-12 on an MT-LB.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian erzats anti-drone rigs on a stripped down SUV chassis being used to protect a Buk btln.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian soldiers pose with what is described as an AGS-17 with a suppressor. I don't know if that's accurate, but it's what it looks like. Maybe someone can weigh in on the practicality of a suppressor for automatic grenade launchers.

Colonelcassad

АГС с глушителем

t.me

Upgraded Krasnopol' shells and new longer ranged 122mm shells continue to be sighted in the war zone.

155-мм САУ DITA чешского производства на вооружении 12-й БрСпН «Азов» НГУ. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

❗️Северокорейские M1989 Koksan и нечто внешне похожее на пусковые установки баллистических ракет, едущие где-то по России. Предположительно, это могут быть БРСД Pukguksong-2 (KN-15 или Полярная звезда-2). Предполагается, что ее дальность стрельбы по нормальной баллистической траектории...

t.me

Осведомитель

Очередной северокорейский жд-эшелон где-то на просторах России. Внимание привлекли не только ставшие обыденными 170-мм САУ M1989 Koksan, но и что-то, что напоминает баллистические ракеты средней дальности Pukguksong-2 («Полярная Звезда-2») , имеющих дальность полета 1200 - 2000 километров...

t.me

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

По поводу вчерашнего видео с ЖД составом с техникой из КНДР. Как уже говорил – видео не дает 100% гарантии, что там именно Pukguksong-2. Вот есть и такая версия – это РСЗО M-1991, которые стоят кабиной по направлению к хвосту поезда.

t.me

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Еще один эшелон с корейской техникой в Тюменской области. Показаны 10 М1989 "Коксан" и предположительно 4 БРСД "Pukguksong-2" (2500 км). Видео Х. Ожидаемый результат эпохи процветания и развития ВС РФ – утрата компетенций в разработке и производстве артиллерии и закупки в КНДР.

t.me

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Естественно, качество видео не дает 100% гарантии, что там именно Pukguksong-2. Да и на первый взгляд при сравнении 2-ступенчатой ракеты средней дальности и САУ "Коксан" кажется, что ракета Pukguksong-2 какая-то «маленькая». Но тут прикол в том, что длина ракеты Pukguksong-2 – 9 метров, вместе...

t.me

Russia and Ukraine exchange 150 for 150 POWs and 42 Russian KIA bodies for 503 Ukrainian bodies. Note some of this disparity comes from the fact that Russia is advancing and Ukrainian forces fighting in semi-encirclement often can't evacuate wounded, nevermind KIAs.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️150 на 150: Россия и Украина провели новогодний обмен пленными, - Минобороны России. ▪️ Обмен прошел при посредничестве ОАЭ. 150 российских военных после обмена находятся в Беларуси, где им оказывается необходимая помощь. ▪️Все освобожденные будут доставлены в Россию для лечения и...

t.me

Footage from inside Ugledar. It's an interesting contrast with the recent footage of Kurakhovo.

Военный Осведомитель

Угледар после более чем двух лет боёв в объективе @denyaleto. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Reportedly Ukraine's crew for the ex-Netherlands minetrawler has completed training. 3 such trawlers are planned for handover.

Военный Осведомитель

Министерство обороны Нидерландов сообщило, что украинский экипаж из 35 человек закончил двухмесячный курс обучения на тральщике-искателе мин голландского флота М 857 Makkum (фото) типа Alkmaar (Tripartite), недавно выведенном из состава флота. Однако данный экипаж примет планируемым первым к...

t.me

It appears Portuguese Ka-32s have made it to Ukraine and at least one is in flying condition.

bmpd

Заснятый в Киеве отремонтированный и введенный в строй Украиной один из шести переданных Португалией в августе-сентябре вертолетов Ка-32А11ВС. Эти шесть вертолетов Ка-32А11BC были приобретены правительством Португалии в РФ в 2007 г. для противопожарных задач. Они эксплуатировались сперва...

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Один из шести вертолетов Ка-32А11ВС, переданных Португалией, засветился в Киеве. Вертолеты приобретены в 2007 году и эксплуатировались вплоть до 2018-го (Фото), но из-за отсутствия запасных частей, а также бюрократических и финансовых проблем, эксплуатация всех шести вертолетов российского...

t.me

Poland reportedly handed over two Mi-8Ts and one Bell 412 to Ukraine.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Dambiev

Сообщают, что Польша передала Украине два старых вертолета Ми-8Т и один вертолет Bell 412HP из состава авиации МВД

t.me

Осведомитель

МВД Польши сообщает, что Украине передано два вертолета Ми-8Т. Осведомитель

t.me

Spanish Leo-2A4s getting ready to ship to Ukraine.

Осведомитель

Танки Leopard 2A4 в порту Бильбао, Испания. Готовятся к отправке на Украину после проведения капитального ремонта. Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Испанские танки Leopard 2A4 в порту Бильбао для последующей отправки на Украину. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Испанские танки Леопард-2А4 прибыли в порт Бильбао для их доставки в Украину, сообщает Guardia Civil Bizkaia в Х. Любопытна история испанских Леопардов. Леопард-2А4, которые Испания после серьезного ремонта отправляет в Украину, тесно связаны с одним из самых печальных эпизодов испанской армии –...

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Reportedly Germany has funded another 20 Marders for Ukraine. Deliveries are expected in the first half of 2025.

bmpd

Rheinmetall сообщил, что получил финансируемый правительством Германии контракт на "двузначную сумму миллионов евро" на капитальный ремонт и поставку Украине еще 20 БМП Marder 1A3. Поставка будет произведена в первой половине 2025 г. Rheinmetall передал Украине первые БМП Marder 1A3 в марте 2023...

t.me

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Rheinmetall поставит Украине еще 20 боевых машин пехоты Marder. В декабре 2024 года Rheinmetall получила заказ на поставку Украине еще 20 боевых машин пехоты Marder 1A3. Поставка запланирована на первую половину 2025 года. Поставки будут финансироваться Германией. В общей сложности Rheinmetall...

t.me

seaspear · Tuesday at 5:49 AM

It can be difficult assessing material losses in this war if we only receive those claimed from one side of course, this individual is able to provide losses for both sides ,

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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