Middle East Defence & Security

[Feanor]

Looks like the Assad government is on the verge of complete collapse. No legendary Tiger Forces to the rescue. No Issam Zahreddine to lead any legendary grandstands against all odds. The HTS and SNA built up a lot of capacity these last few years whilst the SAA became dilapidated and less motivated. It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out. Where do the rebels stop? What happens to the YPG? Will there be a SDF and Rebel clash? How long will such Jihadis be tame on Israel's doorstep? I see this playing out to be much more chaotic than the aftermath of Libya.


The SDF is already occupying the western bank of the Euphrates, with settlements such as Deir-Ezzor.

x.com

The SNA launched an offensive against the SDF in Manbij.

x.com

It looks like it stops with the fall of Assad's regime. It's unclear what replaces it and there's some serious questions about what's taking place behind the scenes. Iran isn't rushing to the rescue, Russia isn't sounding the alarm bells or even beefing up forces in the coastal areas. This is really starting to look like Assad got sold downriver with token support from Russia and no support from Iran while his own military simply scatters. Either his regime is so rotten that it can't survive at all (which is a bit odd, remember he lasted much longer under worse international conditions relatively recently) AND Russia and Iran completely didn't see any of this coming, AND both are suffering from some sort of decision paralysis... or there's a deal, possibly with Turkey, that reunites Syria, has Assad removed safely (luxurious retirement in Russia?), and Russia and Iran get to keep their presence in-country.

Let me put this another way. Russia trusts the rebels not to attack the coastal areas so much that Russia won't even deploy any substantial additional forces to protect Russian bases? With no guarantees, just genuine trust? Iran trusts the rebels so much that they're confident they won't lose their corridor to Lebanon? With no guarantees? This really smells rotten.

 

[Stampede]

It looks like it stops with the fall of Assad's regime. It's unclear what replaces it and there's some serious questions about what's taking place behind the scenes. Iran isn't rushing to the rescue, Russia isn't sounding the alarm bells or even beefing up forces in the coastal areas. This is really starting to look like Assad got sold downriver with token support from Russia and no support from Iran while his own military simply scatters. Either his regime is so rotten that it can't survive at all (which is a bit odd, remember he lasted much longer under worse international conditions relatively recently) AND Russia and Iran completely didn't see any of this coming, AND both are suffering from some sort of decision paralysis... or there's a deal, possibly with Turkey, that reunites Syria, has Assad removed safely (luxurious retirement in Russia?), and Russia and Iran get to keep their presence in-country.

Let me put this another way. Russia trusts the rebels not to attack the coastal areas so much that Russia won't even deploy any substantial additional forces to protect Russian bases? With no guarantees, just genuine trust? Iran trusts the rebels so much that they're confident they won't lose their corridor to Lebanon? With no guarantees? This really smells rotten.

Could it be like the rapid collapse of the US supported government in Afghanistan a few years ago.
It all just happened really quickly and there was really no script, just a rapid unfolding of events and a change of regime.

This would be my take; Russia and Iran know they are flogging a dead horse.
It’s their self interest to stay but not to continue propping up what appears to be yesterday’s man.
What will they do time will tell

I don’t believe anyone knows where this is heading. Too many variables at play.

Government collapse in Syria will affect not just the country.

Another region of interest and uncertainty

Cheer S

 

[Feanor]

Could it be like the rapid collapse of the US supported government in Afghanistan a few years ago.
It all just happened really quickly and there was really no script, just a rapid unfolding of events and a change of regime.

This would be my take; Russia and Iran know they are flogging a dead horse.
It’s their self interest to stay but not to continue propping up what appears to be yesterday’s man.
What will they do time will tell

I don’t believe anyone knows where this is heading. Too many variables at play.

Government collapse in Syria will affect not just the country.

Another region of interest and uncertainty

Cheer S

Not even additional security forces deployed to protect a Russian airbase and naval base? This seems unlikely. I guess it is possible.

EDIT: Damascus appears to have fallen and Assad's plane may have been shot down.

 

[PachkaSigaret]

Let me put this another way. Russia trusts the rebels not to attack the coastal areas so much that Russia won't even deploy any substantial additional forces to protect Russian bases? With no guarantees, just genuine trust? Iran trusts the rebels so much that they're confident they won't lose their corridor to Lebanon? With no guarantees? This really smells rotten.

That definitely is fishy. We haven't seen any mass drone attacks on Khmeimim Air Base like in the past. We have seen the Russians launch sorties on the advancing rebels. And I have just seen a Russian IL-76 fly over Turkey to Khmeimim via Flight Radar. I feel like some back door deal has been reached indeed. However, I for one don't see the likes of the HTS being kept on a short leash for too long, especially with all this land they've acquired.

Rumors are abound that Israel is pushing out of the Golan into Al-Hamdiyah.

 

[Feanor]

That definitely is fishy. We haven't seen any mass drone attacks on Khmeimim Air Base like in the past. We have seen the Russians launch sorties on the advancing rebels. And I have just seen a Russian IL-76 fly over Turkey to Khmeimim via Flight Radar. I feel like some back door deal has been reached indeed. However, I for one don't see the likes of the HTS being kept on a short leash for too long, especially with all this land they've acquired.

Rumors are abound that Israel is pushing out of the Golan into Al-Hamdiyah.

Some fun context, here's crowds of Syrians toppling statues of Assad senior in the coastal regions. Note we don't have rebel forces entering these regions, at all.

Военный Осведомитель

Тем временем местное население в Латакии и Тартусе (где расположены наши военные базы) уже дружно сносит памятники Хафезу Асаду (отцу сбежавшего Башара). Факт непосредственного захода колонн боевиков в данные регионы пока не зафиксирован, однако настроения местных жителей по поводу семейства...

t.me

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Let me put this another way. Russia trusts the rebels not to attack the coastal areas so much that Russia won't even deploy any substantial additional forces to protect Russian bases? With no guarantees, just genuine trust? Iran trusts the rebels so much that they're confident they won't lose their corridor to Lebanon? With no guarantees? This really smells rotten.

Iran and Russia were distracted when this kicked off. Iran's proxies have been hammered by Israel, so it's unlikely that there were significant ground forces to throw into the fight. Maybe if both had known how serious these offensives were going to be, they'd have scrambled something to hit the rebels back before it became a crisis. But the dominoes started falling too quickly to do anything after the momentum had built up.

Also Russia has already started pulling out of Tartus. Is there anything left to protect?

EDIT: Russia has now confirmed what we all suspected, that Assad has left Syria.

 

[koxinga]

The Assad Regime Has Fallen, Claims Swirl Around Possible Crash Of His Escape Jet

In a stunning 12-day blitz, anti-regime forces have ousted Bashar al-Assad from Syrian rule.

www.twz.com

It will be "the day after" discussion that people will be focusing on.

All eyes on Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. Important to remember that while HTS has been one of the key drivers, there are other factions with various agenda and purpose. How he deals with the existing regime, the other factions, regional powers (Russians, Iran, Turkey) will be interesting. Worst case scenario is a Libya situation with each faction fighting for control, armed by their respective backers.

 

[Ananda]

Various online sites put map on whose control Syria by Area. Put this as seems it is being shown by several sources. I don't say it is the most reliable ones, but seems give rough estimate.

Seems the previous regime and pro Russia controlling the coastal area. Perhaps the regime army do fall back fast to regroup in coastal area. HTS in white control other big population area, and southern area including the Capital seems control by opposition. Yes it is definitely can be more fragmented then Libya.

Add: The Area of potential Regime Army/ Pro Russia Control area, is also the traditional area that's been control by Alawite community. So seems plausible the regime (which is basically Alawite control regime) back to their stronghold.



This is the French Syria mandate map. It is basically from my understanding divided administratively base on Tribal control area. Looking on what various factions control now, it could be back to that arrangements.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Israel captured the Syrian part of Mt Hermon. This is a strategic location allowing Syria to monitor Israel's own monitoring activities, and look into Israel.
During my service, I frequently visited the outpost at the peak of Israel's Mt Hermon. Its tallest peak is on the Syrian side, where a UNDOF outpost should be.
The takeover is reportedly done in cooperation with UNDOF.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1865776255653794303

Israel conducts airstrikes in Syria. Main targets are reportedly former SAA assets that Israel wouldn't want to fall into rebel hands, including anything related to SSMs, chemical weapons, and other strategic weapons that could be used to attack Israel.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1865779320020402541

Today should be a happy day for Syrians. They must feel liberated. In a way, it's also a good day for Israelis. The IRGC took a major blow, losing its 2 strongest allies in less than 2 weeks. It's now left with Iraq and Yemen, and a smuggling operation through Jordan into Judea and Samaria. But these are not liberal democratic forces. It's a Jihadist force after all. And while more moderate than Assad, possibly, they add significant uncertainty into Israel's quietest front.

 

[Feanor]

Today should be a happy day for Syrians. They must feel liberated. In a way, it's also a good day for Israelis. The IRGC took a major blow, losing its 2 strongest allies in less than 2 weeks. It's now left with Iraq and Yemen, and a smuggling operation through Jordan into Judea and Samaria. But these are not liberal democratic forces. It's a Jihadist force after all. And while more moderate than Assad, possibly, they add significant uncertainty into Israel's quietest front.

It really depends on what happens from here. Towards the middle of the war most of the population had clustered in government held areas and people were fleeing rebel controlled territory into government-held provinces. It suggests that the rebels were a less-than-pleasant bunch and we have quite a bit of anecdotal evidence from that time to support that. If we see something like a representative government emerging from this, then yes, this could theoretically mean freedom. But Tahrir al-Sham doesn't give me optimism. This could be the start of a Libya-style mess for years/decades to come.

Also Russia has already started pulling out of Tartus. Is there anything left to protect?

You may be right, some Russian sources are claiming Russia is pulling out of Syria.

Военный Осведомитель

❗️Сообщается о подготовке вывода части техники с авиабазы Хмеймим в сирийской Латакии. Вчера на аэродром прибыло сразу несколько Ил-76 и Ан-124 «Руслан», которые использовались ранее для быстрой переброски в Сирию различной тяжелой техники, вроде машин из состава ЗРК С-400. Пока не ясно...

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Сообщается, что из Сирии мы все-таки уходим. Тяжело в это поверить, но если так, то на лицо колоссальное геополитическое поражение и утрата военного присутствия на Ближнем Востоке, за что так боролись последние 9 лет. Большая часть вины в этом, конечно за, Башаром Асадом. Его...

t.me

On a side note, rebels are now in the coastal areas, a pro-Russian enclave there is no longer possible unless something pretty drastic happens..

Военный Осведомитель

❗️Колонны боевиков уже в прибрежных Тартусе и Латакии. Выстрелы в воздух, "Аллаху акбар", все как надо. Пока что на российские военные базы никто не рыпается, но как в таких условиях сохранять военное присутствие - решительно непонятно. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

 

[Redshift]

I would imagine that this:

Syria latest: Assad left Damascus after negotiating with 'conflict participants' - Russia; Starmer welcomes end of 'barbaric' regime

The Russian foreign ministry says Bashar al Assad stepped down and left the country after negotiations with "a number of participants in the armed conflict". It comes after rebel forces claimed they had captured the capital Damascus.

news.sky.com

Means that Russia is likely to lose it's Mediterranean naval base?

Is there any feasible way that they might be allowed to keep it given their involvement in the war?

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

If we see something like a representative government emerging from this, then yes, this could theoretically mean freedom. But Tahrir al-Sham doesn't give me optimism. This could be the start of a Libya-style mess for years/decades to come.

Some guy called Mohammed Gaza al-Jalali has been appointed interim Prime Minister. Seems he served under Assad, so would at least indicate that there won't be a total, immediate purge of anyone connected with the old regime.

It's very difficult to predict what will happen next. It will depend on how much the different groups can work together and whether they are willing to cooperate or want to fight for total control.

Compared to Libya, the Syrian oil and gas fields are a bit more randomly distributed. As so much of Libya's energy wealth is concentrated in Cyrenaica, that gave a huge incentive to forces there not to share with the national government.

One important question is what will happen in the northeast region. Turkey will want the Rojava area smashed, but that would just prolong the fighting and could cause other groups to fight against any dominant force, fearful that they'd be next.

You may be right, some Russian sources are claiming Russia is pulling out of Syria.

There were other news reports that several days ago they'd started pulling ships out of the base.

Means that Russia is likely to lose it's Mediterranean naval base?

Is there any feasible way that they might be allowed to keep it given their involvement in the war?

I don't see how they can.

Even if there are Syrians who felt that Assad was the devil they knew, he murdered and tortured so many people that there will be continuing anger against Russia and Iran for supporting him for over a decade. The various revolutionary groups that are now victorious are likely to have suffered the most.

If Russia wanted to return to Tartus, they'd probably need to pay an obscene amount of money for it.

 

[Feanor]

There were other news reports that several days ago they'd started pulling ships out of the base.

They did some live fire exercises in the Mediterranean and then came back. Either way it's not the ships that are the problem. It's pulling out the material and personnel. Aircraft and ships can often leave fairly easily.

I don't see how they can.

This all depends. Theoretically a deal could have been struck with Turkey and with rebel leadership that simply allows Russia to keep their presence there. But this is pure speculation. Currently it looks like this is not the case.

Even if there are Syrians who felt that Assad was the devil they knew, he murdered and tortured so many people that there will be continuing anger against Russia and Iran for supporting him for over a decade. The various revolutionary groups that are now victorious are likely to have suffered the most.

If Russia wanted to return to Tartus, they'd probably need to pay an obscene amount of money for it.

Is there any evidence that they're angry at Russia? I haven't seen any. I'm not saying it can't be the case, but is it actually or are you guessing?

EDIT: Air traffic to Khmeimeem from Russia and from Iran.

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[Musashi_kenshin]

Is there any evidence that they're angry at Russia? I haven't seen any. I'm not saying it can't be the case, but is it actually or are you guessing?

It would be a logical assumption that the biggest backers of Assad would not be regarded well by the people who were persecuted. It doesn't have to be "anger", as such. It's enough that they would not support Russia staying.

Either way it's not the ships that are the problem. It's pulling out the material and personnel. Aircraft and ships can often leave fairly easily.

Presumably some sort of withdrawal agreement could be reached. Even if Russian forces could be overwhelmed, it would be bloody. Much better to just agree they have x weeks to leave and let them go of their own accord.

 

[swerve]

Some guy called Mohammed Gaza al-Jalali has been appointed interim Prime Minister. Seems he served under Assad, so would at least indicate that there won't be a total, immediate purge of anyone connected with the old regime.

The leader of HTS, the main group among the rebels who've taken Damascus has told people the prime minister (who was recently appointed by Assad, but stayed behind & kept doing his mostly administrative job when Assad fled) is in charge of state institutions until further notice & they should be respected. Looting public buildings (as distinct from Assad's private residence) is banned. The armed forces are ordered to keep out of them.

Looks as if they want to take over a functioning administration, which is sensible. Both al-Jalali & HTS are talking about a managed transition to a new government. Obviously, they're talking to each other.

It's very difficult to predict what will happen next. It will depend on how much the different groups can work together and whether they are willing to cooperate or want to fight for total control.

The new guys are talking of wanting peace between all the various ethnic & religious groups. Let's hope that lasts.

The risk of it all falling to pieces seems high, & the past of HTS worries me, but so far they're making the right noises. We'll see.

I can't help wondering why Assad's army crumbled so quickly & completely. Had there been some backroom deal between generals & rebels? Or were the rank & file so demoralised that rather than fight they just went home/ran away/changed sides? There seems to have been almost no fighting since the fall of Aleppo. And al-Jalali staying behind - had he already been talking to HTS?

It's a setback for Russia & Iran. Their foreign policies don't seem to be doing well. Did Putin decide Syria's too expensive to keep propping up? Was it a recognition of overstretch? And it's going to make Iranian support of Hezbollah more complicated, unless Iran can make a deal with the new lot - but I can imagine them not being keen on confrontation with Israel, given the condition of Syria, & the war-weariness of its people.

Aha! The Russians say Assad's in Moscow.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

I can't help wondering why Assad's army crumbled so quickly & completely. Had there been some backroom deal between generals & rebels? Or were the rank & file so demoralised that rather than fight they just went home/ran away/changed sides?

It's almost exactly the same what happened in Afghanistan. Rebel forces, previously too weak to make concerted pushes on large population centres, managed to smash aside government forces that probably had low morale and were tired of fighting. It seems that the Assad forces largely just joined the rebels or cast off their uniforms and disappeared.

Psychology is often important in these situations. We need to remember that Assad was a particularly nasty individual. Sometimes fear can keep people in line, but it's a double-edged sword. If you think your boss looks like he's going to lose and he has a habit of beating his staff, why stick around and run the risk you'll be strung up and hung by an angry mob? It's not like he's got your back (and predictably Assad legged it rather than went down with his ship).

What's happening in Burma is not entirely different either. For most of the country's post-independence history the Tatmadaw were regarded as being untouchable. But they went too far after 2021 and forced a large proportion of the general population to oppose them, when previously it was mostly minority groups. Now they've suffered a string of losses and are being slowly encircled in the central regions - people are a lot less scared of them and are more motivated to fight back, whereas the Junta are struggling to recruit. I don't think there would be such a sudden collapse of the Junta as happened in Syria, but observers might still be surprised that it falls relatively quickly.

 

[Fredled]

Is there any evidence that they're angry at Russia? I haven't seen any.

t would be a logical assumption that the biggest backers of Assad would not be regarded well by the people who were persecuted.

There may not be hatred against Russians but they are not the friends of the friends.
Russia's closer and closer ties with Iran makes them de facto unwelcome by the new Syrian sunite regime. They could be tolerated in their bases because the rebels who just took over Damascus won't have enough military means to oust Russians by force. They yet have to take the Latakia region.
The region of Latakia, and the Russian bases there, could stay outside rebel control for a while.

If Russia wanted to return to Tartus, they'd probably need to pay an obscene amount of money for it.

This all depends. Theoretically a deal could have been struck with Turkey and with rebel leadership that simply allows Russia to keep their presence there. But this is pure speculation. Currently it looks like this is not the case.

Money is not a possibility for Russia at present time. Oil? Syria has oil already. Maybe gold. But that would be difficult logistically. If Erdogan takes 10%, gold could eventually transit by Turkey.

It will depends who will back the new Syrian government. Probably some Arab emirates and Turkey. Maybe the US too.
It will depends what their backers will tell them to do with the Russians.
IMO the rebels were helped by Turkey and some western power, perhaps the US, precisely to overthrow a Russian ally.

If Iran bombs the rebels with the S35 which were recently delivered to them by Russia, Russians will definitely be non welcome.

I can't help wondering why Assad's army crumbled so quickly & completely.

The Iraqi army fled in similar fashion when ISIS took over north west Iraq.
The reason is that these populations are not motivated to fight unless it's for Islam. Iraq, after Saddam, was a secular government supported by the West. The Assad's regime was also secular. Soldiers were in the army only for the pay and officers were appointed by the regime not as professional soldiers but as members of the tribe who rule the country.
But for Arabs, there is no reason to fight but Islam. The rebels were on the side of Islam. They are radical Islamists and that makes them on the right side to fight for.
Had Assad been a radical Islamist, his troops would have fought better.

Both al-Jalali & HTS are talking about a managed transition to a new government. Obviously, they're talking to each other.

That's a good sign. The fact is that rebels are unable to replace the existing administration for domestic matters. But make no mistake: The new government will be an Islamic one.

It's a setback for Russia & Iran. Their foreign policies don't seem to be doing well. Did Putin decide Syria's too expensive to keep propping up? Was it a recognition of overstretch?

That's the result of the all-for-Ukraine policies. Putin kept just enough troops to protect their military bases, but not enough to protect the Assad's regime. Putin has no possibility to send military aid or deployment to Syria because all his military resources are used in Ukraine. They also pulled troops out of Africa.

I suspect that the West (Ukraine's allies) have helped the rebels.
It's a diplomatic set back for Russia. Russia lost its prestige as it proved totally useless in protecting their allies. It may change the way the "Global South" sees Russia and the diplomatic weight of Sergei Lavrov at international meetings.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

The reason is that these populations are not motivated to fight unless it's for Islam.

That's nonsense, and I'd say you're straying into the territory of bigotry - you're stereotyping people based on their ethnicity and religion. Muslims, especially in countries like Syria, are capable of making important decisions based on logic rather than constantly scream "ALLAH ACKBAR" and shoot wildly into the air every few seconds.

In these sorts of countries that have weak or unpopular governments, people back whoever they think is going to win. That's why the Taliban collapsed in 2001. The support NATO gave to the Northern Alliance was important, but at the end of the day Taliban forces either fled or swapped sides very quickly. And the Taliban were the biggest Islamist group in the region.

It's the same with Daesh. They were the most aggressively Islamic group during the zenith of their power. They weren't defeated by an even more Islamic organisation, they were beaten by a variety of groups, including regular Iraqi forces, Shia militias and Kurdish groups.

Syrian solders were happy to support Asad when he was winning. They dumped him when it looked like he was going to lose.

 

[Ananda]

Aha! The Russians say Assad's in Moscow.

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-says-syrias-assad-has-left-country-given-orders-peaceful-power-handover-2024-12-08/

Seems Reuters confirm this. Also this talk on the deals to secure Russian bases (as price to Assad gone) being made, seems plausible however also questionable whose going to secure the deal.

Still both coastal provinces Latakia and Tartus from what info so far still hold most of it by Regime Army. Both provinces also the stronghold of Alawite community. So if the Alawite forces now regroup in both provinces and got support from Russia, and the Opposition really do make deals with Russian, it is just plausible this thing happened.

Still considering how fluid the situations is, I'm not going to hold my breath that those 'deals' will be hold for long period yet.

 

[koxinga]

Is there any evidence that they're angry at Russia? I haven't seen any. I'm not saying it can't be the case, but is it actually or are you guessing?

Russia's hand in the Syrian Civil War is well documented and they, together with Iran kept Assad going for a lot longer than he could on his own. Wagner had to take Palmyra (twice) for Assad, they fought against HTS in Hama, Deir ez-Zor etc. Heck, even in the last days, Russians were flying CAS out of Khmeimim air base against HTS.

It would be a reasonable assumption to suggest that they are certainly not welcomed any more. Angry? More than likely. Sames goes for the Iranians, they get a special mention in his victory speech at the Umayyad Mosque .

This new triumph, my brothers, marks a new chapter in the history of the region, a history fraught with dangers (that left) Syria as a playground for Iranian ambitions, spreading sectarianism, stirring corruption,” he said.