Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Staying that close to Lebanese shoreline is incredibly dangerous to the point of negligence. Hezbollah still likely has AShMs.
Middle East Defence & Security
- Thread starter MaenZ
- Start date
Hisb'allah is not the side in the conflict that's firing on UN forces.
And UNIFIL is there with approval of and in cooperation with the Lebanese government.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
That's just complacency. It wouldn't be the first time they fired on NATO ships, including German ones.
And yes, they have fired on UN forces before.
Lebanese army court charges 5 men allegedly linked to Hezbollah for Irish peacekeeper's death
BEIRUT (AP) — Lebanon's military tribunal on Thursday charged five men with the killing of an Irish U.N. peacekeeper in December, a senior judicial official said.
apnews.com
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Perhaps in their panic, they reveal their assessments and fears.
Much can be said about the viability and pros and cons of strikes on Iran's nuclear, oil, regime, and other targets. But the most interesting one perhaps would be the Basij.
It's one thing to kill the Ayatollah which ultimately will be replaced. Another thing entirely to destroy the main mechanism keeping a secular revolution at bay. Hitting the Basij will be as destructive to Iran as it is difficult for Israel.
While the main conventional targets in Iran are fairly centralized and easy to cripple with just a few hits - Basij is a paramilitary force dispersed across Iran to deal with unrest. Its manpower pool is huge, and making it temporarily ineffective would be incredibly complex.
Yet it shouldn't be ruled out that this is what Israel built capabilities for.
On the Hezbollah front, the IDF now publicly revealed that Hezbollah is keeping its finances as well as a former bunker of Nasrallah, under a hospital in Beirut's Dahiyah neighborhood (Hezbollah stronghold).
Instead of striking it, the IDF's spokesperson in Arabic Avichai Adraee provided extra details on how to enter the facility and reach the money. Approximately $500 million are located there.
Hezbollah pays its members in US dollars, raising the chances someone will take upon themselves the task to loot it.
Lebanon's population is far more sympathetic to Israel than the population of Gaza or J&S could ever be, so it's preferable that civilians get the area cleared so infrastructure remains intact. However in a general outlook on Dahiyeh, its status could be a dilemma for the IDF.
On one hand, its destruction could ensure Hezbollah's infrastructure is truly removed and Hezbollah has nowhere to return in Beirut.
On the other hand, the crisis in Lebanon may also manifest as a housing crisis and so maintaining Dahiyeh somewhat intact could further Israel in the aspect of hearts and minds, which is ultimately quite important for a "day after" strategy in Lebanon.
Much can be said about the viability and pros and cons of strikes on Iran's nuclear, oil, regime, and other targets. But the most interesting one perhaps would be the Basij.
It's one thing to kill the Ayatollah which ultimately will be replaced. Another thing entirely to destroy the main mechanism keeping a secular revolution at bay. Hitting the Basij will be as destructive to Iran as it is difficult for Israel.
While the main conventional targets in Iran are fairly centralized and easy to cripple with just a few hits - Basij is a paramilitary force dispersed across Iran to deal with unrest. Its manpower pool is huge, and making it temporarily ineffective would be incredibly complex.
Yet it shouldn't be ruled out that this is what Israel built capabilities for.
On the Hezbollah front, the IDF now publicly revealed that Hezbollah is keeping its finances as well as a former bunker of Nasrallah, under a hospital in Beirut's Dahiyah neighborhood (Hezbollah stronghold).
Instead of striking it, the IDF's spokesperson in Arabic Avichai Adraee provided extra details on how to enter the facility and reach the money. Approximately $500 million are located there.
Hezbollah pays its members in US dollars, raising the chances someone will take upon themselves the task to loot it.
Lebanon's population is far more sympathetic to Israel than the population of Gaza or J&S could ever be, so it's preferable that civilians get the area cleared so infrastructure remains intact. However in a general outlook on Dahiyeh, its status could be a dilemma for the IDF.
On one hand, its destruction could ensure Hezbollah's infrastructure is truly removed and Hezbollah has nowhere to return in Beirut.
On the other hand, the crisis in Lebanon may also manifest as a housing crisis and so maintaining Dahiyeh somewhat intact could further Israel in the aspect of hearts and minds, which is ultimately quite important for a "day after" strategy in Lebanon.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Recently we heard Iran threatening retaliation vs Israel immediately after Israel's response. There are many factors to this calculus. Here's the main one supporting it:
Any Israeli airstrike would necessitate a large number of aircraft be airborne at once. Aerial refueling tankers, SAR assets, combat aircraft for a variety of missions. All these need to land somewhere.
Israel's strike methods are incredibly precise and deadly, but they lack in per-sortie capacity, sortie output, and most importantly - timing.
Aerial power is king, but it's undeniable that an MRBM reaches its target so much faster than an aerial fleet. As soon as Israel strikes, Iran could initiate a massive strike targeting Israel's airbases.
Together with the highly likely possibility that Iran has more missiles than Israel and the has interceptors, Iran has a credible capability to, if not cause value damage, at least hit Israeli runways across the country in a way that hinders the ability of fuel-starved aircraft to land.
Israel would not launch an attack if it knew the response could lead to it losing large numbers of aircraft. Therefore I assume it has plans to set up additional improvized runways across the country just in case. There is a unit specializing in that.
Any Israeli airstrike would necessitate a large number of aircraft be airborne at once. Aerial refueling tankers, SAR assets, combat aircraft for a variety of missions. All these need to land somewhere.
Israel's strike methods are incredibly precise and deadly, but they lack in per-sortie capacity, sortie output, and most importantly - timing.
Aerial power is king, but it's undeniable that an MRBM reaches its target so much faster than an aerial fleet. As soon as Israel strikes, Iran could initiate a massive strike targeting Israel's airbases.
Together with the highly likely possibility that Iran has more missiles than Israel and the has interceptors, Iran has a credible capability to, if not cause value damage, at least hit Israeli runways across the country in a way that hinders the ability of fuel-starved aircraft to land.
Israel would not launch an attack if it knew the response could lead to it losing large numbers of aircraft. Therefore I assume it has plans to set up additional improvized runways across the country just in case. There is a unit specializing in that.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
A F-35B with a much longer range could address runway concerns somewhat, perhaps even a few existing “B”s would be a good backup.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Brandon model was considered but ultimately shut down. Israel doesn't have the money for such luxury.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
A rather disturbing article (if reasonably accurate) about F-35 vulnerability during the recent Iranian strike mission. Again, if true, the suggestion for "digital stealth" at the end of the article is probably already underway.
Was an Israeli F-35 Shot Down By Iranian Radar? - Warrior Maven
Was an Israeli F-35 Shot Down By Iranian Radar? - Warrior Maven
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Warrior Maven is a very unreliable source. Many years back I used to read them because their articles were quite eye catching, but soon found out there's no factual basis behind, just lots of baseless speculation.
So things have been going down in Syria once again. Calibre Obscura (x.com) has a good, near real-time what is going on.
In short, taking advantage of Russia's distraction in Ukraine and Hezabollah being dismantled by Israel, HTS’s Al-Fath al-Mubin and Turkey’s Fajr al-Hurriya decided to take action. Aleppo (second largest city) appears to have fallen due to the surprise and the next few days of whether the Assad regime can respond and stem the tide will be key.
syria.liveuamap.com
As for stories of the attempted coup in Damascus, it is very sketchy and unconfirmed.
In short, taking advantage of Russia's distraction in Ukraine and Hezabollah being dismantled by Israel, HTS’s Al-Fath al-Mubin and Turkey’s Fajr al-Hurriya decided to take action. Aleppo (second largest city) appears to have fallen due to the surprise and the next few days of whether the Assad regime can respond and stem the tide will be key.
Map of Syrian Civil War - Syria news and incidents today - syria.liveuamap.com
Explore Syrian Civil War news on live map in English. Civil war and International intervention in Syria. War on terrorism in Syria
syria.liveuamap.com
As for stories of the attempted coup in Damascus, it is very sketchy and unconfirmed.
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Very important. The twin Russian bases there are hubs for Russian expansion into Africa, are connected to the Libyan Express and serve as key Russian nodes in the region. Russia still maintains a mixed air squadron equivalent of jets there, an air defense presence, and some ground forces including an artillery group and SOF. However while the VVS are doing quite a bit of damage to rebel forces due to their concentration for attacks and maneuver, I think Iran and Iraq will have to play first fiddle this time around.
This article goes into others involved in this like Turkey ,suggesting there is not a clear outlook
www.cfr.org
What Syria’s Revived Civil War Means for the Region
The surprise rebel offensive that has seized Aleppo and threatens other regime-held territories could mark a further weakening of Iran's regional sway but also spur a new cycle of violence and instab…
www.cfr.org
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Russia's air force is generally very under-utilized, so they have the means to support Assad from the air. This is a tremendous power boost for Assad.
Turkey has been prime suspect since day 1, as the ones pulling the strings. The extent to which it is true, will determine how far the rebel boys will go. If it's the primary leader of this assault, then it will stop sooner rather than later. Erdogan seeks to rule the Arab world, not destroy it. The more Syria is fractured, the more difficult it is to assert influence.
Turkey has been prime suspect since day 1, as the ones pulling the strings. The extent to which it is true, will determine how far the rebel boys will go. If it's the primary leader of this assault, then it will stop sooner rather than later. Erdogan seeks to rule the Arab world, not destroy it. The more Syria is fractured, the more difficult it is to assert influence.
There were talks between the US and the Emirates to lift sanctions on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad if he peels himself away from Iran and cuts off weapons routes to Lebanon's Hezbollah.
I suspect the US and other Arab emirates have indirectly helped the insurgents, along with Turkey, after Assad refused the offer or after they understood that such offer was not feasible.
IMO this was irrrealistic. Assad is too dependent on Iran and Hezbollah.Reuters said:
I suspect the US and other Arab emirates have indirectly helped the insurgents, along with Turkey, after Assad refused the offer or after they understood that such offer was not feasible.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
I'm not sure anyone would have a clear interest in letting the Assad regime fall and have a terrorist regime replace it. Assad is perhaps the most pragmatic member of the middle east Axis branch. Far more so than Hezbollah or Iran.
The Israel-Syria relationship is a great example of how seemingly sworn enemies can maintain peace through diplomacy.
We live in a sad world where a Ba'athist dictactor that has no qualms committing crimes against it's own citizens is considered a better alternative because his overriding concern is to maintain power, and not trying to export terror or participate in some grand regional ideological power game.
As for the factions (Al-Fath al-Mubin / Fajr al-Hurriya) leading the attack, they remind me more and more of the factions in Libya. No real political identity or hidden Islamist agendas and pawns for other agendas.
As for the factions (Al-Fath al-Mubin / Fajr al-Hurriya) leading the attack, they remind me more and more of the factions in Libya. No real political identity or hidden Islamist agendas and pawns for other agendas.
PachkaSigaret
New Member
Looks like the Assad government is on the verge of complete collapse. No legendary Tiger Forces to the rescue. No Issam Zahreddine to lead any legendary grandstands against all odds. The HTS and SNA built up a lot of capacity these last few years whilst the SAA became dilapidated and less motivated. It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out. Where do the rebels stop? What happens to the YPG? Will there be a SDF and Rebel clash? How long will such Jihadis be tame on Israel's doorstep? I see this playing out to be much more chaotic than the aftermath of Libya.
The SDF is already occupying the western bank of the Euphrates, with settlements such as Deir-Ezzor.
x.com
The SNA launched an offensive against the SDF in Manbij.
x.com
The SDF is already occupying the western bank of the Euphrates, with settlements such as Deir-Ezzor.
x.com
The SNA launched an offensive against the SDF in Manbij.
x.com
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Trump stated in his X that US should not get involved in Syrian war anymore. Basically saying it is not US War and it is not US business whatever the outcome. I see his X yesterday, and bit more Colourful then Reuters iteration. Please free to look on original comment in his X.