Korean Peninsula Developments

[Ananda]

for North Korea, if they're sensible they'll stay quiet. South Korea in a constitutional crisis would be less predictable than normal - the military might take it upon themselves to return fire if they feel the government is incapacitated.

Well terminology of sensibilty is debatable for Kim's Dynasty. They are dynastic power, thus they are always moving with their own logic. Still potential ROK military moving on their own seems unlikely at this moment. Granted so far shown they are more inlining them selves with Yoon conservative government. However it is also can be argue they are sticking with their constinutional commander in chief.

Mrs S is watching Japanese news, which is covering it heavily. Says it looks as if the President is paranoid.

South Korea president to lift martial law order after parliament rejection

President had said the move was necessary to protect the country from ‘communist forces’.

www.google.com

It is potentialy not paranoid, but could be his unorthodox attempt to force political compromise to break through Parliement gridloock. Despite his approval rating down trend, half of ROK still support him.

In East and Southeast Asia 3 Presidential system has history of dictatorial President. That's South Korea, Philippines and Indonesia. All three after that doing adjustment on constitution to limit President power. Some side effect happen, but perhaps all three nations in average still believe Presidential system is the best for them at this moment. I can not talk much on average South Korean and Pinoy feel for their current Presidential system. However for Indonesian, it is better then the mess up Parliement system can bring in our History. I suspect all three don't want Dictatorial back, but still want relative strong Presidential government.

 

[koxinga]

I am amused that the news programs avoided calling it coup d'etat.

Citing external threats to impose martial law is an classic coup d'etat move, which makes him a sad joke because no one believed that. Even the SOF that arrived came with blanks and training kit.

He quite literally, lost it.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

I am amused that the news programs avoided calling it coup d'etat.

Maybe because it's disputed whether it was a coup? A coup is normally held by a party that isn't the government - or potentially a government that is trying to stay in power after an election or similar event that means they need to leave.

That wasn't the case here.

 

[koxinga]

Depends. It can be self coup, if there is such a thing. The constitutional process for declaring martial law (which involved approval via a cabinet meeting) was not followed and he did it unilaterally. Impeachment seems to be a given. It seems to be an extreme move; if Korean gossip is to be believed, he did it partially to protect his wife?

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

The defence minister Kim Yong-hyun has offered to resign. According to him, it was he who suggested the Martial Law declaration/self coup d'etat to the president.

Yoon Suk Yeol: South Korean president faces impeachment vote, as defence minister offers to resign

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Depends. It can be self coup, if there is such a thing.

There is no such thing. To the extent you may see it on the internet, it's a term invented by people who think they can just tag something on to an existing word to change its meaning. You can't seize power from yourself. You have to take it from someone else for it to be a coup.

It's not entirely unlike how some people say "you're genociding me" when they're upset by someone's verbal arguments. You can't genocide a person, but that doesn't matter for some people.

The constitutional process for declaring martial law (which involved approval via a cabinet meeting) was not followed and he did it unilaterally.

At the end of the day it is the leader of a government that declares a state of emergency or issues a martial law decree. I would be surprised if a cabinet meeting is required because in an emergency it may not be able to meet. Perhaps South Korean law would prefer that the country burn to the ground rather than have the President make such a decision without approval from other people, I don't know.

The real issue is that Yoon made the declaration without any good reason, which was an abuse of power. It's not as catchy as "coup", but it's more accurate.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

There is no such thing. To the extent you may see it on the internet, it's a term invented by people who think they can just tag something on to an existing word to change its meaning. You can't seize power from yourself. You have to take it from someone else for it to be a coup.

It's not entirely unlike how some people say "you're genociding me" when they're upset by someone's verbal arguments. You can't genocide a person, but that doesn't matter for some people.



At the end of the day it is the leader of a government that declares a state of emergency or issues a martial law decree. I would be surprised if a cabinet meeting is required because in an emergency it may not be able to meet. Perhaps South Korean law would prefer that the country burn to the ground rather than have the President make such a decision without approval from other people, I don't know.

The real issue is that Yoon made the declaration without any good reason, which was an abuse of power. It's not as catchy as "coup", but it's more accurate.

Yes, it is more a case of "abuse of power" or "acting not according to the rules and laws". It is a little bit similar with the case of Abdurrahman Wahid, the fourth president of Indonesia. In 2001 the Majelis Permusyawaratan Rakyat (in English it is maybe "People's Consultative Assembly") wanted to kick him out of his presidency, and then he ordered for declaring the State of Emergency. The armed forces refused to obey him, and he also wanted to disband the MPR and/or prevent the MPR Special Session. I was too young to understand and remember the details, and i was living abroad that time, so maybe other Indonesian members can give a more detailed and correct explanation.

 

[Feanor]

There is no such thing. To the extent you may see it on the internet, it's a term invented by people who think they can just tag something on to an existing word to change its meaning. You can't seize power from yourself. You have to take it from someone else for it to be a coup.

It's not entirely unlike how some people say "you're genociding me" when they're upset by someone's verbal arguments. You can't genocide a person, but that doesn't matter for some people.



At the end of the day it is the leader of a government that declares a state of emergency or issues a martial law decree. I would be surprised if a cabinet meeting is required because in an emergency it may not be able to meet. Perhaps South Korean law would prefer that the country burn to the ground rather than have the President make such a decision without approval from other people, I don't know.

The real issue is that Yoon made the declaration without any good reason, which was an abuse of power. It's not as catchy as "coup", but it's more accurate.

On the other hand it could be called a coup against the government as a whole by a member of it, namely the president. Declaring states of emergency as a way of subverting democracy is a common way of becoming an authoritarian leader.

 

[koxinga]

You can't seize power from yourself. You have to take it from someone else for it to be a coup.

Democratic societies have different institutions for separation of power (executive, legislative, judicial) as a means of control/check and balance.

Emergency powers suspend the normal functioning of such controls. I would consider that as seizing power, not from yourself but from those insitutions.

At the end of the day it is the leader of a government that declares a state of emergency or issues a martial law decree. I would be surprised if a cabinet meeting is required because in an emergency it may not be able to meet. Perhaps South Korean law would prefer that the country burn to the ground rather than have the President make such a decision without approval from other people, I don't know.

There are two specific legislature for emergency powers in Korea. Article 2 of the Martial Law Act (link) and Article 77 of the Constitution (link)
While the President can and should be able to declare martial law (Article 77), it is done in deliberation with the State Council (e.g Cabinet) re Article 2 (5) of MLA. Seems like only the Defense Minister was consulted.

(5)	The declaration of martial law or alteration in its nature by the President shall undergo deliberation by the State Council.

In any case, Article 77 requires the President to notify the National Assembly immediately. By issuing his martial law proclaimation at 11pm and most of the National Assembly appears to have gotten the news the same time as the rest of the country, it appears there were no intent to notify them.

The real issue is that Yoon made the declaration without any good reason, which was an abuse of power. It's not as catchy as "coup", but it's more accurate.

There are two things here. Procedural violation AND executive overreach (abuse). The "abuse" relies on whether there are grounds for such proclaimation. However, the way that he proclaimed it is also important.

Because if those grounds existed, he would have and should have done it in the proper way. To your point, even if there was such an emergency, it is unfathomable to me that only the President knows about it and it has to be proclaimed without even making a phone call to the Speaker of the National Assembly or the leaders of the political parties that make up the majority of the National Assembly and the Cabinet.

 

[koxinga]

According to unconfirmed news (below and what I've read on several korea military blogs), the military forces at the National Assembly was from 707th Special Mission Group, 1st Special Forces Brigade, and Capital Defense Command.

Depending on who you believe, those units were put on alert on 2 Dec and was (mis) informed on the nature of the threat to keep them compliant. The entire matter was orchestrated by the ex-Defense Minister, probably with a couple of key commanders (special warfare), outside of routine chain of command.

According to lawmaker Park, the military canceled external training for the 707th unit and issued orders for personnel to remain on base on Dec. 2. The unit then called off joint exercises and tactical evaluations the next day to focus on deployment readiness, including gear inspections, with soldiers’ cell phones allegedly confiscated upon the formal declaration of martial law at 10:30 p.m. on Tuesday.

ROK army allegedly put on alert for North Korea threat before martial law order | NK News

The South Korean military put special forces units on alert for a “serious situation regarding North Korea” hours before the president declared martial law this week, according to an opposition lawmaker, suggesting the administration played up nonexistent DPRK threats to ensure soldiers’...

www.nknews.org

 

[Ananda]

Now the show is to see if the Parliament can get above 200 votes threshold to impeach him. Today should answer that question. To do that, the opposition need at least some of Yoon party and Allies in Parliament to cross. If Yoon action really anger some of his own party and allies, then it can happen.

Considering the history of ex ROK Presidents fate so far, becoming ROK President really becoming risky job (for both aisles of political spectrum).

The armed forces refused to obey him, and he also wanted to disband the MPR and/or prevent the MPR Special Session. I was too young to understand and remember the details, and i was living abroad that time, so maybe other Indonesian members can give a more detailed and correct explanation.

@Sandhi Yudha a bit different situation compare to Yoon now. Yoon basically overseas a nation that already have more solid procedure and democratic process. Wahid was overseeing at that time a Nation that are much more fragmented political factions as the Absolute Power/Dictactor just resign in bit more couple of years. Thus Yoon actually have more orderly political landscape. Which's why from any angles to see, his actions is quite questionable on purpose.

I have talk with some South Korean Chaebols officials in ASEAN. Even they discretly say the Chaebols families are quite surprises with what Yoon doing. In a country where Chaebols Families control more that two thirds of economies, those families are not something that any Presidents should easily annoyed.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Reading this, i think it is quite likely that the president will be voted out by most parliament members.
South Korea: President Yoon's arrest list included own party leader

It seems he really planned to arrest many top-politicians, not only from the opposition but also from his own political party!

 

[koxinga]

It also appears that other than the National Assembly, Yoon deployed troups to the National Election Commission.

According to the National Election Commission on Thursday, more than 100 troops armed with rifles and other military equipment were sent to its headquarters in Gwacheon, Gyeonggi Province, between 10:30 p.m. and 12:30 a.m. the next day.

Apparently, Yoon believes the "they stole the election" conspiracy and wanted to secure and investigate.

In a message sent to reporters, Friday, former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun, who recommended Yoon declare emergency martial law, said the mission given to the troops was to “secure evidence of election fraud.”

Soldiers deployed to NEC amid election fraud allegations

Soldiers deployed to NEC amid election fraud allegations Former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun orders deployment of troops to NEC

www.chosun.com

Martial law soldiers sent to buildings of election commission, liberal YouTuber

The buildings of the National Assembly were not the only target of martial law troops during the hours that followed President Yoon Suk Yeol’s order Tuesday night.

www.koreatimes.co.kr

Conspiracy theories about voter fraud suggested as one reason behind martial law decision

Korea’s top election watchdog on Friday condemned armed troops’ attempt to seize control of its key facilities under martial law as an “unconstitutional and unlawful” move, calling for criminal investigations into everyone involved.

www.koreatimes.co.kr

 

[Ananda]

South Korea presidential impeachment vote fails on ruling party boycott

Nearly all PPP lawmakers left the National Assembly main hall ahead of vote

asia.nikkei.com

https://www.npr.org/2024/12/07/g-s1-37286/south-korean-president-impeachment-vote-fails

Seems Yoon party members in Parliament still behind him so far. The impeachment vote fail as Yoon party are boycotting the votes. The opposition even control the Parliament not having enough vote to secure two thirds threshold.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Seems Yoon party members in Parliament still behind him so far. The impeachment vote fail as Yoon party are boycotting the votes. The opposition even control the Parliament not having enough vote to secure two thirds threshold.

As I said before, South Korea's politics is a mess right now. You might even say it was broken.

The President is from one party, but the Opposition control the legislative and are blocking his legislative agenda and tried to cut the budget. The budget reductions overall weren't crippling, but they appeared politically partisan, especially by cutting the budget for the prosecutors.

South Korea's political system is particularly problematic because a President can only serve one term in office. That makes the government especially weak because as soon as someone becomes President it has already been decided when they will be losing office.

This is a good advertisement for parliamentary democracy. You control the legislative, you form the government. End of.

(EDIT: The above is in the context of South Korea. Some countries have issues with parliamentary systems, but usually because of corruption where people are bribed to switch parties.)

 

[swerve]

South Korea presidential impeachment vote fails on ruling party boycott

Nearly all PPP lawmakers left the National Assembly main hall ahead of vote

asia.nikkei.com

https://www.npr.org/2024/12/07/g-s1-37286/south-korean-president-impeachment-vote-fails

Seems Yoon party members in Parliament still behind him so far. The impeachment vote fail as Yoon party are boycotting the votes. The opposition even control the Parliament not having enough vote to secure two thirds threshold.

His party isn't willing to actively support him, though. If they'd turned up & voted, it would have shown that they support him. Refusing to turn up is a bit ambiguous, even if the effect is the same.

 

[Feanor]

His party isn't willing to actively support him, though. If they'd turned up & voted, it would have shown that they support him. Refusing to turn up is a bit ambiguous, even if the effect is the same.

Well he did just attempt a coup that reportedly involved him intending to arrest people from his own party. I'm surprised they're partisan enough to prevent him from being impeached after pulling that stunt. It really highlights how bad the situation is.

As I said before, South Korea's politics is a mess right now. You might even say it was broken.

The President is from one party, but the Opposition control the legislative and are blocking his legislative agenda and tried to cut the budget. The budget reductions overall weren't crippling, but they appeared politically partisan, especially by cutting the budget for the prosecutors.

South Korea's political system is particularly problematic because a President can only serve one term in office. That makes the government especially weak because as soon as someone becomes President it has already been decided when they will be losing office.

This is a good advertisement for parliamentary democracy. You control the legislative, you form the government. End of.

I don't want to take this down the path of political discussion but I do want to briefly address this. There are parliamentary democracies that also suffer from internal political dysfunction with governments rising and falling over and over again. A presidential system and a parliamentary system each have their own pluses and minuses.

 

[koxinga]

There is news that President Yoon will resign and step down, with Prime Minister Han Duck-soo taking over in the interim capacity. This approach is proposed by PPP leader Han Dong-hoon. Predictably, the opposition is opposed to it and calls in a second coup, which is not factually correct.

Article 71

If the office of the presidency is vacant or the President is unable to perform his or her duties for any reason, the Prime Minister or the members of the State Council in the order of priority as determined by Act shall act for him or her.

Nevertheless, this would be a temporary arrangement (up 60 days) as the Constitution requires them to elect a new President.

Article 68

(2)	In case a vacancy occurs in the office of the President or the President-elect dies, or is disqualified by a court ruling or for any other reason, a successor shall be elected within sixty days.

S Korea opposition says ruling party staged 'second coup'

The decision to hand power to the country's prime minister has been widely criticised by the opposition.

www.bbc.com

South Korea ruling party vows to engineer ‘orderly exit’ for Yoon

The announcement was made at a joint press briefing on Dec 8. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

 

[koxinga]

Not totally a surprise. I had thought Yoon might do it, but his ex-defense minister got ahead of him. Probably the formal arrest on treason charges pushed him over the edge.

(URGENT) Ex-defense minister attempted suicide at detention facility: correction official | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr

Meanwhile, the raids are continuing on the Presidential Office, Seoul Metropolitan Police and the National Assembly Police Guards.

Police raid presidential office, police headquarters over martial law declaration | Yonhap News Agency

SEOUL, Dec. 11 (Yonhap) -- Police on Wednesday raided the presidential office and the poli...

en.yna.co.kr

 

[Ananda]

S. Korea’s 68-year debate over investigative authority of prosecutors, police

The current legislative push to strip prosecutors of their ability to conduct investigations is far from the first attempt to restructure the institution

english.hani.co.kr

Some in Korean online forums talk about this moves from Yoon also related to Prosecution office power. Yoon as previous head of procutors try to maintain that office power, while opposition want severe changes on the power of that office. This power is quite powerful as Prosecution office can direct independently Prosecution directions.

This Police raid, could be related to that.