Russia - General Discussion.

[seaspear]

A recent posting by Joe Bloggs suggests that Russia's official interest rates are not accurate and for for this he includes information by an economist referencing the Phillips curve with an explanation of cause and effect since Russia claims its inflation has gone down to 8.6 but at the same time raise interest rates to 21 percent he may have a point ,

In regard to the I.M.F this article suggests some bias to authoritarian regimes

The IMF Is Returning to Russia. No One Should Be Surprised.

The International Monetary Fund’s decision to send a delegation to Russia is only the latest pro-authoritarian move from the organization under the leadership of Kristalina Georgieva, according to Yale SOM’s Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, co-author Steven Tian, and Tymofiy Mylovanov and Nataliia Shapoval...

insights.som.yale.edu

 

[Ananda]

They are not thinking like that because they are abiding by the UN Charter and international agreements which, among other things, defines when sanctions are justified or not

Keep saying that, and you like many in West will not going to understand on what others non West think. You keep thinking on Western perspective.

Global South: The “Rest” vs the West? | ISPI

The rise of the Global South is a multifaceted and intricate issue, representing a turning point for Global Politics.

www.ispionline.it

However, these views might be unfairly assessing the idea of the Global South for what it doesn't include, rather than what it actually represents. In fact, its value lies in highlighting the shared struggle these countries face in influencing the management of the international order compared to the Global North, not in a homogenous identity.

One example of such approaches was in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, where many Global South countries resisted adopting the sanctions regime implemented on Russia by many Global North countries. Shidore describes such a move as the pursuit of Global South's strategic autonomy and its inclination to pursue national interests over aligning with Northern positions

You want to continue keeping your Western perspective that's your rights. I put the article above just shown how seeing what Global South want simply from simplified Western perspective as you have shown will not going to understand Global South action.

Time change, Geopolitics change, and Global South want alternatives options that they can have more control or alternatives that's not control by US and Allies. They are not in one mind like I said before, but saying that Global South don't see what West can do to Russia, will not happen to them, is also wrong perspective. Remember the sanctions is Western sanctions not International Global sanctions, no matter what Washington, London or Brussels say.

They are preparing themselves so what happens to Russia on financial transactions will not happen to them, when they are crossing Western interest. They don't have big trust to each other, but they also at same time don't have big trust to Western powers. Russia and Gaza are just catalysts on that. So in time of lack confidence to each others, alternatives market channels is just one of consequences.

 

[seaspear]

I'm not sure the reference to "Global South" has the relevance you refer to most of this group voted against Russia in the United Nations ,this article questions the relevance of this term

The Term “Global South” Is Surging. It Should Be Retired.

The phrase lacks the depth and diversity of the world it purports to describe.

carnegieendowment.org

 

[Ananda]

Global South have diverse interest, but also shares interest to be carving their own path without West or any power dictate them. They don't share much trust to each other but also shares similar increasing distrust to West dominate market system. Which is why they are looking on alternative channels.

They voted against Russia in UN on Russian Invasion, but also voted against West in UN on Russian sanctions. That's also the article that I have put. They don't want to side with Russia but also reject West on sanctioning Russia. Most of them are sitting in fences. This is already happening throughout the war, and continue doing so on Geopolitics positions.

The existing world order is what they are challenged. They want to keep engaging West, but also want to engage the parties that West don't like. The later part that seems many in West don't understand.

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

Global South have diverse interest, but also shares interest to be carving their own path without West or any power dictate them. They don't share much trust to each other but also shares similar increasing distrust to West dominate market system. Which is why they are looking on alternative channels.

They voted against Russia in UN on Russian Invasion, but also voted against West in UN on Russian sanctions. That's also the article that I have put. They don't want to side with Russia but also reject West on sanctioning Russia. Most of them are sitting in fences. This is already happening throughout the war, and continue doing so on Geopolitics positions.

The existing world order is what they are challenged. They want to keep engaging West, but also want to engage the parties that West don't like. The later part that seems many in West don't understand.

The world looks a lot different from SE Asia, at least it did to me during the time I lived there. We Westerners, particularly we Americans here between two great oceans, have a particular ummm ... perspective. Most Americans have little awareness of the rest of the world outside what we call "the West" -- other than China, and most have rather mistaken ideas about China. Our news only rarely reports anything happening in Asia or Africa, and barely covers events even in South America. The recent coup in Bangladesh and its aftermath? Practically no one here has even heard of it.

Anyway, if I might ask you a question. I can sort of wrap my mind around how BRICS might manage to come up with an alternative currency to the USD, but I am too ignorant to figure out how they can construct a real alternative to SWIFT. I know Putin just announced BRICS is not pursuing its own version of SWIFT, but at the same time, I cannot understand how BRICS can have a truly alternative system without having an alternative to SWIFT. I hope you can enlighten me. I confess I am rather ignorant about these things.

 

[Ananda]

Anyway, if I might ask you a question. I can sort of wrap my mind around how BRICS might manage to come up with an alternative currency to the USD, but I am too ignorant to figure out how they can construct a real alternative to SWIFT. I know Putin just announced BRICS is not pursuing its own version of SWIFT, but at the same time, I cannot understand how BRICS can have a truly alternative system without having an alternative to SWIFT. I hope you can enlighten me. I confess I am rather ignorant about these things.

Franky speaking most in market still wondering on that. It will be big endeavor for that, as means they have to agree on one current system as base or they will built entirely new one. Like I said before, I agree there are not big trust to each other yet on practice among Global South including those in BRICS. However they also agree they need alternatives payment systems to smoothing their trade transactions outside Western dominate system like SWIFT.

Many of us suspect it will be base on Chinese CIPS (Cross Border Interbank Payment System), as it is essentially already established. However it will depend on India. As within BRICS the big decision on trade agreement actually depends on India and China, and Russia whether Putin like it or not, already relegated as third biggest in BRICS decision making.

For that Brics: What led to Modi and Xi meeting and thaw in India and China ties the meeting between Modi and Xi JinPing to thaw their border dispute is very important for BRICS. I already put this few days ago in Chinese thread, and put it again in here. Putin I suspect really hope this is happening because he knows BRICS future much depends on trust building between India and China as the two biggest players within BRICS and Global South. If they two cam agree on which payment system to be use as base, I suspect the rest including Russia will follow.

Introduction

www.cips.com.cn

CIPS off course Yuan or Reminbi (RMB) base system as against SWIFT which is USD dominated base system. Means the system will use Chinese control market like Shanghai and Hong Kong as Banks Interchange transactions clearing node, as SWIFT now mostly use New York and London (with Paris and Frankfurt to lesser extent) as Interchange clearing node. Means like SWIFT, CIPS also depend on Banks opening accounts on that markets to conduct Interchange transactions with each others.

I suspect India will want the system also going to use Mumbai market as one main Interchange node. Thus China must open their CIPS to include Mumbai, Sao Paulo and Moscow as part of Interbank Payment node. Although I suspect the node will be dominated by largest market like Shanghai, Hong Kong and Mumbai only got to lesser extent smaller portion. Just like in SWIFT where the node much happened in New York and London Interchange.

Again any international market system depends on Trust. International trade players trust off course still with Western Market (as I personally has), but recent Geopolitics like it or not also increase demand for alternative system eventough it still has less market trust with it.