Russia - General Discussion.

[Redshift]

Fact is fact, eventough the conclusions can be bias to their own agenda. Every 'think tank' doing it. That's think tank behavior as every think tank have agenda behind it. Liechtenstein is very big player in Global Financial market.

And packed full of Russian oligarchs, read this

Liechtenstein: The mysterious tax haven that's losing the trust of the super-rich

The tiny principality of Liechtenstein attracts the super-rich for its secrecy and security but, as a bitter legal case shows, there's a price: all legal right are held by the trustees

www.independent.co.uk

No doubt you will tell me that it's just western bias and the super super rich in Liechtenstein are all just lovely ordinary people with no agenda at all.

 

[Ananda]

doubt you will tell me that it's just western bias and the super super rich in Liechtenstein are all just lovely ordinary people with no agenda at all.

So..?? They are also big players on global financial market. They are not much difference then big bankers family like Rothschield. What's the different whether Western bias or Russian bias, as all also kowtowing and move carefully around big market players.

However those guys knows how markets work, so their think tank don't talk nonsense when describing transactions that happen. So when they describing something that happens in market, then it is already happening. You don't like it, but that's reality. Markets only knows bottom line and don't like political barriers. That's distrupt efficient market transactions. Thus the players will find ways to continue their 'efficient' transactions. For those financial haven, who cares on politics.

Try to see different ways, why Russian Oligarchs can still find haven in the middle of Euro Zone ? Just like Switzerland that's haven for both Nazi and Allies in WW2 doing transactions. Lichtenstein are just part of string of market haven. Haven because they care more on bottom line transactions then politics. They are big enough importance on Financial marker node, but also small enough as country to attract attention. They are a 'dot' that everyone needs.

 

[Redshift]

So..?? They are also big players on global financial market. They are not much difference then big bankers family like Rothschield. What's the different whether Western bias or Russian bias, as all also kowtowing and move carefully around big market players.

However those guys knows how markets work, so their think tank don't talk nonsense when describing transactions that happen. So when they describing something that happens in market, then it is already happening. You don't like it, but that's reality. Markets only knows bottom line and don't like political barriers. That's distrupt efficient market transactions. Thus the players will find ways to continue their 'efficient' transactions. For those financial haven, who cares on politics.

Try to see different ways, why Russian Oligarchs can still find haven in the middle of Euro Zone ? Just like Switzerland that's haven for both Nazi and Allies in WW2 doing transactions. Lichtenstein are just part of string of market haven. Haven because they care more on bottom line transactions then politics. They are big enough importance on Financial marker node, but also small enough as country to attract attention. They are a 'dot' that everyone needs.

What's wrong with you?

What does "you don't like it" mean. Reality or otherwise I can see that's these think tanks that you quote are just as biased as the western oriented ones that you dismiss , literally, every time anyone cites them.

I see things in as many ways as you do but I'm not hampered by your enormous anti western bias, which is so big I imagine that it can be seen from the moon.

I won't be responding to your next rant about how little I know, or how "I don't like it but it's true because you say it's true".

 

[Ananda]

What's wrong with you?

What does "you don't like it" mean. Reality or otherwise I can see that's these think tanks that you quote are just as biased as the western oriented ones that you dismiss , literally, every time anyone cites them.

And what's wrong with you ??? You are the ones that that continue branding me as anti West and as you always try to downgrade anyone that you perceived anti West. Like I said so many times, I like Western Financial Market, I make money on Western Market, but I don't like recent Western Politics. There's difference with Western Financial markets and Western Politics behavior. So I like Lichtenstein idea, but you are the one that doesn't like and brand their Think Tank as bias. That's the reality that outside your grasp of understanding.

You are already say from long time ago don't want to response to my posts. However you keep doing it. Shown you are really not now what you are talking about, and just like to 'brand' others.

 

[Redshift]

And what's wrong with you ??? You are the ones that that continue branding me as anti West and as you always try to downgrade anyone that you perceived anti West. Like I said so many times, I like Western Financial Market, I make money on Western Market, but I don't like recent Western Politics. There's difference with Western Financial markets and Western Politics behavior. So I like Lichtenstein idea, but you are the one that doesn't like and brand their Think Tank as bias. That's the reality that outside your grasp of understanding.

You are already say from long time ago don't want to response to my posts. However you keep doing it. Shown you are really not now what you are talking about, and just like to 'brand' others.

So rude again,

"outside your grasp of understanding" rude

" you are really not now what you are talking about" rude

"So I like Lichtenstein idea" confirmation bias


Of course you like it, because it fits your confirmation bias, if anyone is unaware of matters of their own bias it's you old chap

 

[Rob c]

How about the two of you give it a rest as you are tending to go around in circles. Time to agree that you disagree.

 

[Redshift]

How about the two of you give it a rest as you are tending to go around in circles. Time to agree that you disagree.

I'm all for that, I just don't appreciate the totally uncalled for insults

 

[Ananda]

just don't appreciate the totally uncalled for insults

You really want to continue on this ? You insult me first from time to time as Anti Western Bias. I told you I don't like Western politics especially recent trend, but I go for Western Financial market. That's what I say it is beyond your understanding that people that don't like Western Politics, is also still work with Western Financial market. This is why I like Financial haven places like Lichtenstein and their think tank, as financial market people (in their own way) much more honest then Western politicians and mainstream media biases. That's what beyond your understanding.

Clearly you are playing victims, when you are shown your Western superiority complex all along from beginning. Now calling insult ? Playing victims is bordering to phatetics.

Now when I'm stop to keep this thread civil, still you try to continue to baiting me.
Sorry mode team, can't help it as this guy clearly want to continue baiting me.

 

[Feanor]

I'm locking the thread to give everyone time to calm down.

 

[Feanor]

Reopening this with a stern warning to stay off the personalities. Also the circular discussion about Russian access to financial markets needs to end. Unless there are specific fact-based datapoints to discuss, the general direction for discussion is done. Clearly there will not be agreement until something dramatic happens.

 

[Feanor]

I'll open this up with a post to take this in a new direction. There are reports that Russia will help India build a early-warning radar of the Voronezh family. This is an area where Russia still has some relatively unique expertise and may be willing to provide access to knowledge and technology beyond what the USA for example is willing to offer. For India, China, and perhaps Iran, this might be offer an opportunity to get a program running much faster and much more effectively. Given that Russia will have a hard time supplying their traditional MIC products in volume (as they're needed for the war effort) this can help Russia stay relevant as a strategic partner but of course is also a potential vulnerability for Russia. Of course the Voronezh family of early-warning radars isn't cutting edge anymore either.

India may acquire advanced Russian radar system

Almaz-Antey’s Voronezh radar detects missiles, aircraft, and threats up to 6,000–8,000 km, supporting Russia’s missile defence network. New Delhi: India

sundayguardianlive.com

 

[Ananda]

Russia’s Economic Gamble: The Hidden Costs of War-Driven Growth

The storm of government spending is sustaining the current state of affairs, but it cannot address the chronic problems that have long plagued the Russian economy. We are witnessing an irreversible turn toward economic stagnation.

carnegieendowment.org

Sanctions Notwithstanding, Russia’s Economy Continues to Outperform

The sanctions Western powers inflicted on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine may have had some effects, but they are not evident in the country’s gross domestic product, which is outperforming the countries that imposed the sanctions. However, with rising inflation and interest rates, Russia’s...

internationalbanker.com

IMF and basically most international financial institutions believe Russia economy will be slowing down, bur definitely not collapsing. The inflationary pressure is more to over supply side due to Defense sector related production increase.

Carnegie on the other hand focus toward unsustainable productivity due to labor shortage and Defense industry focus. While it is concerning on the matter of Defense Focus economy, but it is also going to provide potential boost toward second biggest export of Russia outside commodities.

Still it is going to slow down economy development in 25 and 26, but not to the level of collapsing. Defense export from Russia also depends on how far Rosoboron able to convince Global South market on steady supply chain and financing scheme.

That's the big problem, Western sanctions is hurting financing scheme to Russia, and that's hurting transactions costs on exporting Russian products. That's what even Carnagie agree on the extend of Western Sanctions to Russia can do.

While Global South still willing to pay more on transactions costs with Russian discount prices in commodities, that's not going to be that simple for defense products. How far Global South willing to face Western Sanction on Russian defense products (if Russian supply chain back to market again), remain big question.

That's in my opinion that going to hurt Russia if they in the end can't channel excess capacities on their MIC which being build up with this war. If they don't get more market for the build up productions on defense, civilian airliners and other Import Substitutions industry, then it will broke down their recent build up capacity in local productions supply chain.

Russia so far seems able to switch their market from Euro Zone to Asia and other Global South relatively well. Still thats more on commodities and hydro carbon products. Big question whether they can do that with Defense products.

Let's see what deal that Trump and Putin will make.

 

[seaspear]

In regard to the export of defence products I don't believe there is some short term fix ,certainly Wagner styled groups in Africa can be loaned out for gold payments ,but countries like India and China are more interested in addressing their own defence needs , certainly the Ukraine war has raised some questions about the value of much of the equipment previously sold and much of this was the export version

Russia’s Boom Business Goes Bust

Moscow’s arms exports have fallen to levels not seen since the Soviet Union’s collapse.

foreignpolicy.com

 

[Ananda]

Russia Exported Weapons to 17 Countries in 2024: Rosoboronexport CEO

ROE General Director Alexander Mikheev said the company's order book stands at $55B

www.defensemirror.com

Rosoboron claim they got total export USD 55 Bio to 17 countries. Whether most that USD 55 Bio really from export contract, still one side claim. Regardless it is also shown Rosoboron already back in the global defense market.

Western think tank mostly shown poor performance of Russian equipment. However more important (for Rosoboron) is not the image in West, but the image of Russian equipment in Global South (as Target Market). More and more I see the Global South media tone talk war attrition happen to both NATO and Russian origin equipment. Thus their tones is performances of NATO and Russian equipments are not much differ in Ukraine battle field.

So the question how successful Rosoboron on their efforts going back to export market, not only on production capacities, but also financing capabilities. The later one that's big problem for Rosoboron, as this is what Western sanctions success is. Success in squeezing Russian export from financing schemes thus severely increase transactions costs.

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-pivots-away-russian-arms-will-retain-strong-ties-2024-01-28/

Problem with Defense export for Rosoboron is India reducing sourcing from Russia. While China with better MIC productivity demand more Tech Coop. Without India and China, Russian other Global South customers, can't fill the gap. Thus Rosoboron must find ways to keep relevant in both market.

 

[Feanor]

Russia Exported Weapons to 17 Countries in 2024: Rosoboronexport CEO

ROE General Director Alexander Mikheev said the company's order book stands at $55B

www.defensemirror.com

Rosoboron claim they got total export USD 55 Bio to 17 countries. Whether most that USD 55 Bio really from export contract, still one side claim. Regardless it is also shown Rosoboron already back in the global defense market.

Western think tank mostly shown poor performance of Russian equipment. However more important (for Rosoboron) is not the image in West, but the image of Russian equipment in Global South (as Target Market). More and more I see the Global South media tone talk war attrition happen to both NATO and Russian origin equipment. Thus their tones is performances of NATO and Russian equipments are not much differ in Ukraine battle field.

So the question how successful Rosoboron on their efforts going back to export market, not only on production capacities, but also financing capabilities. The later one that's big problem for Rosoboron, as this is what Western sanctions success is. Success in squeezing Russian export from financing schemes thus severely increase transactions costs.

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-pivots-away-russian-arms-will-retain-strong-ties-2024-01-28/

Problem with Defense export for Rosoboron is India reducing sourcing from Russia. While China with better MIC productivity demand more Tech Coop. Without India and China, Russian other Global South customers, can't fill the gap. Thus Rosoboron must find ways to keep relevant in both market.

To be clear the 55 bln isn't deliveries, it's total portfolio of contracts.

 

[Redshift]

Thus their tones is performances of NATO and Russian equipments are not much differ in Ukraine battle field.

Can you provide some supporting evidence for that statement?

 

[Ananda]

you provide some supporting evidence for that statement?

Oo I can , but not too you. Roboron begin to regain defense contract to Global South, is already enough evidence. So Google it by your self. I'm done answering your demand cause it is useless anyway for you.

 

[Vivendi]

Serbia cancels russian weapons orders, saying weapon deliveries from russia are "currently practically impossible". Buying from China, Israel, Western countries instead.

Serbia cancels Russian arms deals amid Ukraine war, Western sanctions

India is buying less from russia. The war in Ukraine has accelerated India’s reduction in Russian arms purchases.

India cuts arms purchases from Russia – Bloomberg | Центр протидії дезінформації

More on russian arms exports: also to China it's dropping. seems sales to African countries is not enough to compensate for drop in sales to the largest buyers (India, China, Egypt, Vietnam, Algeria. Russian arms industries vanished in the Ukraine war, corruption, tanking ruble and no export orders – Global Defense Corp

 

[John Fedup]

Serbia cancels russian weapons orders, saying weapon deliveries from russia are "currently practically impossible". Buying from China, Israel, Western countries instead.

Serbia cancels Russian arms deals amid Ukraine war, Western sanctions

India is buying less from russia. The war in Ukraine has accelerated India’s reduction in Russian arms purchases.

India cuts arms purchases from Russia – Bloomberg | Центр протидії дезінформації

More on russian arms exports: also to China it's dropping. seems sales to African countries is not enough to compensate for drop in sales to the largest buyers (India, China, Egypt, Vietnam, Algeria. Russian arms industries vanished in the Ukraine war, corruption, tanking ruble and no export orders – Global Defense Corp

Not surprising really as two of Russia's biggest customers have expanding domestic MIC, especially China. Other clients, NK excepted, don't need the hassle of dealing with Russia at the moment and there are lots of willing vendors around. A few years from now China will be able to offer and support superior military kit compared to Russia at a lower price with the possible exception of SSK/SSNs and icebreakers. Even their missile sales will be at risk.

 

[Feanor]

Oo I can , but not too you. Roboron begin to regain defense contract to Global South, is already enough evidence. So Google it by your self. I'm done answering your demand cause it is useless anyway for you.

Can you provide it to me please?