The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
- Start date
There are two reasons why I think it's not Western made missiles which hit the Tver storage facility.
1/ Western powers don't want to take the risk to start a military conflict with Russia. It may seems like an old song, but I think that the fear of escalation is real.
On top of the green light to strike deep inside Russia, Ukrainians would be given an unrestricted version of the missile able to fly 500 km away.
This is also unlikely.
2/ In the context of rapid drone technology advance, the Storm Shadow may be already obsolete and Ukrainians (with international partners, heh) could have developed a more effective type of missile.
I'm thinking about AI based landscape recognition and target identification, Starlink communication allowing First Person View technology over long distance, general electronic progress and miniaturisation, and last but not least, adaptation to the Russian EW and air defence systems, their strong and weak points thanks to the experience acquired during the war.
These technological advance could allow the use of a higher number of small cruise missiles, launched at the same time or at short interval, Their warhead would be not as powerful, but their smaller size and their higher number and their enhanced precision and control would ensure a better success to cross Russian air defences and hit the intended targets.
Other international partners are certainly also involved.
1/ Western powers don't want to take the risk to start a military conflict with Russia. It may seems like an old song, but I think that the fear of escalation is real.
On top of the green light to strike deep inside Russia, Ukrainians would be given an unrestricted version of the missile able to fly 500 km away.
This is also unlikely.
2/ In the context of rapid drone technology advance, the Storm Shadow may be already obsolete and Ukrainians (with international partners, heh) could have developed a more effective type of missile.
I'm thinking about AI based landscape recognition and target identification, Starlink communication allowing First Person View technology over long distance, general electronic progress and miniaturisation, and last but not least, adaptation to the Russian EW and air defence systems, their strong and weak points thanks to the experience acquired during the war.
These technological advance could allow the use of a higher number of small cruise missiles, launched at the same time or at short interval, Their warhead would be not as powerful, but their smaller size and their higher number and their enhanced precision and control would ensure a better success to cross Russian air defences and hit the intended targets.
Ukrainians couldn't have developed high tech missiles alone. This is obvious. They already had a long time and well known partnership with Byraktar Inc. They developed a small jet engine for the new version of the Byraktar drone. But this drone seems already obsolete as we don't hear about it anymore and as smaller drone are preferred. But the same engine can be used on a small drone-missiles as the one Ukrainians have already used.
Other international partners are certainly also involved.
Today Ukrainians have hit two more ammunition depots: The 23rd arsenal near Oktiabriasky, in the Tver Region again (before yesterday, they hit the 107th arsenal. The 23rd arsenal is a few km in the south of it), and another arsenal in the Krasnodar Region, between Rostov on Don and Krasnodar. Both sustained extensive damages.
I have only one link from Ukrinform, but other links should follow. There are also videos of mushrooms on You Tube like the one @seaspear posted above.
Ukrinform also claimed an attack on the Shaykovka military airbase, Kaluga region. No more information at the moment. But there is momentum.
According to some rumours, Ukrainians are going to name their next long range drone "Falling Debris" after the Russians using this name themselves to call Ukrainian drone-missiles.
Russians are still advancing slowly in the Pokrovsk area, encircling Ukrainians at Krasnii Yar and Krutnii Yar, finishing off Ukrainsk and moving a little bit in the south of their salient too. They are also closing in on the west of Vuhledar, according to Torsten Heinrich's daily (or almost daily) report.
Ukrinform also reported clashes in several other places from Lyman, to Huliapole and Orikhiv. These clashes happen every day. It's nothing new, but we often forget them.
Illustration:
Two members of the Russian Security Council as they listen to last night news...
The next picture shows the Russian advance in the last three months (or full year 2024, I'm not sure).
Note that the map doesn't include the whole of Ukraine. We can see clearly that the pace of advance is not that catastrophic. Pokrovsk is not even on the map. It's about 1% of what Russians have taken since 2014 (exact calculation pending).
I have only one link from Ukrinform, but other links should follow. There are also videos of mushrooms on You Tube like the one @seaspear posted above.
Ukrinform also claimed an attack on the Shaykovka military airbase, Kaluga region. No more information at the moment. But there is momentum.
According to some rumours, Ukrainians are going to name their next long range drone "Falling Debris" after the Russians using this name themselves to call Ukrainian drone-missiles.
Russians are still advancing slowly in the Pokrovsk area, encircling Ukrainians at Krasnii Yar and Krutnii Yar, finishing off Ukrainsk and moving a little bit in the south of their salient too. They are also closing in on the west of Vuhledar, according to Torsten Heinrich's daily (or almost daily) report.
Ukrinform also reported clashes in several other places from Lyman, to Huliapole and Orikhiv. These clashes happen every day. It's nothing new, but we often forget them.
Illustration:
Two members of the Russian Security Council as they listen to last night news...
The next picture shows the Russian advance in the last three months (or full year 2024, I'm not sure).
Note that the map doesn't include the whole of Ukraine. We can see clearly that the pace of advance is not that catastrophic. Pokrovsk is not even on the map. It's about 1% of what Russians have taken since 2014 (exact calculation pending).
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Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
The escalation primarily talked about in higher circles isn't direct US-Russia confrontation, but rather Russia delivering things it'd rather not deliver otherwise to entities hostile to the west such as Iran and Houthis. What may be the highest profile items are advanced anti-ship missiles for the Houthis, and nuclear weaponization and delivery tech to Iran.
Why is this something Russia wouldn't want otherwise? Because it benefits a lot from drip feeding its customers and not having rivals that can displace it from defense markets. But it may be pushed into doing this eventually.
Yet I don't see this as a serious threat. Definitely not one that's worth seeing Ukraine slowly losing ground and potentially having Russia turn the tide of the war.
Iran's nuclear program is more vaporware than one might think, and the Houthis need a supply route that's going to be visible if they want to deploy such weapons.
@Big_Zucchini Yes, the delivery of advanced weaponry to Iran and the Houtis is a concern. But worse than that is EU-Russia military confrontation.
Those who live in the US and look at the global situation don't understand that. But should Russia launch a rocket attack against European countries, it will create a crash n the markets instantly, economic instability, drop in investments, war fear etc. This would be much worse than any economical disruption the Houtis can do, Iran is only a threat to Israel. And this threat is very serious. But Russia is a direct threat to Europe and it's far more serious. Even if a Russian attack on European countries is a total failure, there would be nonetheless a new era of instability and cold war with threat of nuclear confrontation.
There is far worse risk of snowballing with Europe and Russia than with Israel and Iran. What happens between Israel and Iran remains between Israel and Iran. But what happens with Europe and NATO expands to the whole north hemisphere. It's possible that China and the rest of Asia is being dragged into a war.
Those who live in the US and look at the global situation don't understand that. But should Russia launch a rocket attack against European countries, it will create a crash n the markets instantly, economic instability, drop in investments, war fear etc. This would be much worse than any economical disruption the Houtis can do, Iran is only a threat to Israel. And this threat is very serious. But Russia is a direct threat to Europe and it's far more serious. Even if a Russian attack on European countries is a total failure, there would be nonetheless a new era of instability and cold war with threat of nuclear confrontation.
There is far worse risk of snowballing with Europe and Russia than with Israel and Iran. What happens between Israel and Iran remains between Israel and Iran. But what happens with Europe and NATO expands to the whole north hemisphere. It's possible that China and the rest of Asia is being dragged into a war.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
- Russia indeed threatens with direct confrontation but would that really be the case? It has in fact threatened that many times in the past, and it always turned out to be a bluff. It's about a monthly occurrence by now. Such threats include nuclear threats. Do you really take these seriously? I don't. They're foolish, and are meant to play on the feeble minds of the average European who's far too used to lives of luxury, and believes everything can be solved with an appropriately strongly worded letter. These in turn would shift matters in Russia's favor by voting for the more dovish politicians, fearing Russia's threats hold any water.
- Russia has its own calculus, and retaliating for increased usage range with direct strikes on NATO members and risking invocation of NATO defensive protocols and initiation of direct actions vs Russia, is most definitely NOT an equivalent exchange. It would be a horrible trade-off, which is precisely why Russia won't do it. Of course, banking on an adversary not doing something is an invitation for him to do it, but despite the massive deterioration of European military capability, it is still more than up for the task of defending its skies against Russia missile attacks, and even immensely powerful retaliation.
- Markets won't crash and the economies won't destabilize. It's a myth that economies don't survive wars. A properly built economy, particularly a western one, is incredibly resilient to such adversity. Especially when compared to resource economies like Russia. Even then, it won't be a long lived war. Russia only has enough capacity to hold off Ukraine at the moment - so the combined might of the world's most powerful coalition?
That's a grossly superficial and thus wrong interpretation. Iran is a de facto major adversary to Europe as a:
- Supplier of weapons to Russia.
- Disruptor of European trade (what they're doing in the red sea - they can do right now across the mediterrannean).
- Developer of nuclear weapons.
- Sponsor of terror activity on European soil.
- Sponsor of ideological change and radicalization in Europe.
and
Ukraine-Israel-Taiwan as frontier nations with the backing of NATO and west-aligned nations,
is to misunderstand the dynamics of the current global conflicts.
Ukraine-Russia, Israel-Iran, and China-Taiwan, are deeply connected conflicts, as well as any other conflict that may arise between countries of these blocs.
A cold war is de facto being fought for several decades now. And if anything, in the last couple years, the threshold for using nukes has seriously gone up - with Russia and Ukraine engaged in high intensity warfare. It goes to show that nuclear armed nations won't instantly rush to use nukes even when engaged militarily.
There had been concerns that America would not be capable to act on a two front war if say China acted against Taiwan and Russia attacked countries in Eastern Europe
www.heritage.org
In the almost two years since that article was written Russia has lost significant material and men in Ukraine the Russian financial reserves on a war footing could last for years with funds targeting military needs rather than social,
U.S. Military Forces Cannot Fight on 2 Fronts
The current war in Ukraine and Russia’s threatening actions toward NATO countries coupled with a rising China in Asia highlights a strategic pickle for the United States—the need to be able to deter or potentially fight two major adversaries in two very different regions of the world at the same...
www.heritage.org
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www.reuters.com
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Agree with much of what you say wrt regarding a Russia-EU confrontation (conventional). I think the concern might be a desperate Putin resorting to nukes to save his sorry ar$e Are there people within his criminal organization that would deal with him should he go off the rails. I would hope so but I don’t know. The former head of Wagner’s fate doesn’t exactly encourage me in a positive direction.
Putin has been threatening using nuclear weapons since since the war began. The problem with this is that everytime he draws a new red line and then backs down he loses credibility. In the meantime Russia's enemies are becoming more emboldened. I am sure even his "friends" in China might be starting to wonder if the Russian bark is far worse than its bite.
Of course there is the possibility that one day he won't back down and that would be a disaster.
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KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
There was some discussion as to why the Ukrainian strikes were such a success, especially the first one. There were various suggestions made, including incompetence, caught during transfer, etc. My limited (in this case, read as lack of) knowledge of the subject doesn’t allow me to infer many theories of my own, but here is one that I found to be possibly sound. Note, I have no idea who the poster is and what their qualifications are, but the theory does sounds plausible to me. It was reposted by someone I follow is why I saw it.
Post on X: x.com
Thoughts on the subject?
Looks like Vuhledar is about to fall or already did.
I will comment on “escalation” later.
Post on X: x.com
Thoughts on the subject?
Looks like Vuhledar is about to fall or already did.
I will comment on “escalation” later.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
I'm aware of claims of attack during transfer, as Russians put everything first in above-ground areas and it was struck before they could move everything into bunkers.
However, while it would support the idea of an attack conducted with drones rather than with western munitions like Storm Shadow and the likes of it, I find the data provided by FIRMS footage to contradict that.
If we look past the beautiful red squares, we can see this base has 2 sections. Upper-left one with a lot of greenery is where items are stored above ground, possibly indeed before being transferred to the bunkers. There are specific areas to put items surrounded by earth berms, to protect nearby residential areas. In the lower-right section, smaller one with no greenery, there are bunkers.
There is the possibility that FIRMS also detects hot smoke as a positive data point, but I doubt that, as we'd likely see the spread of such squares in the direction of the wind - and it coinciding specifically with the bunker area is majorly sus.
I see no reason for there to be anything burning in the bunker area as it is covered with gravel or sand. Certainly nothing that could burn on its own. Any burning agents spreading from the munitions would also likely spread more chaotically and again not in a way that coincides with the bunkers' placement.
Therefore I believe that fire originated from both the above ground and under ground sections.
A drone is unlikely to be the culprit behind detonations inside bunkers. You need the ability to penetrate blast walls, and for that you'd rather have some kinetic penetrator, possible via cruise missiles flying in high subsonic speeds with dedicated warheads, and not a shaped charge on a drone, especially as I'd assume that to ensure secondary explosions in the bunker, one may have to detonate a sizable warhead inside the bunker and not simply at its blast doors.
FIRMS footage also shows the spread of fires across the entire section of bunkers, meaning very high success rates for the munitions used.
downunderblue
Member
" ... In a surprising development, Russia has seemingly formed a mechanised battalion from the crew of its only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov".
What a way to utilise specialist skills ...
ukdefencejournal.org.uk
What a way to utilise specialist skills ...
Russian aircraft carrier crew sent to frontline in Ukraine
Russia has formed a mechanised battalion from the crew of its only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
If these guys spoke Mandarin they might be able to join a navy with decent aircraft carriers." ... In a surprising development, Russia has seemingly formed a mechanised battalion from the crew of its only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov".
What a way to utilise specialist skills ...
Russian aircraft carrier crew sent to frontline in Ukraine
Russia has formed a mechanised battalion from the crew of its only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov.
Pity they didn't send the carrier. We could do with a laugh." ... In a surprising development, Russia has seemingly formed a mechanised battalion from the crew of its only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov".
What a way to utilise specialist skills ...
Russian aircraft carrier crew sent to frontline in Ukraine
Russia has formed a mechanised battalion from the crew of its only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #10,655
The last info is Russian sources denying that Russian troops are in the town, though they do seem to be engaged in the summer cottages on the south-east. A reminder, that's where the last Russian push into Ugledar stalled. Though of course this time around Russian forces are east and west, and north-east of the town. The last movements have turned the town into a salient. I'm a bit curious as to why they're pushing into the town at all. One would think taking the fields north of the town would be easier. There are also reports of Ukrainian forces counter-attacking in areas around the town, and reports of Ukrainian forces withdrawing from the north-western part of the No3 mine complex. Russia did seem to have grabbed a fresh batch of POWs in the Ugledar area. I'm attaching the Suriyakmaps screengrab, but they haven't updated since yesterday afternoon and the situation is fluid. Note details on the fighting are all unconfirmed statements from Russian sources so... grain of salt.
Colonelcassad
ОБСТАНОВКА НА УГЛЕДАРСКОМ НАПРАВЛЕНИИ Итак, как Вы уже знаете, за прошедшие сутки подразделения группировки войск "Восток" заметно продвинулись на Угледарском направлении. Как мы уже говорили ранее, бой за Угледарские дачи начался 4 суток назад, еще с утра сохранялась очаговая оборона...
t.me
Воин DV
❗️ОБСТАНОВКА НА "ЮЖНОДОНБАССКОЙ №3"❗️ Похоже, противник устал убиваться о западную часть шахты и лесополосу, прилегающую к юго-западному углу её территории, и в ночь попытался бежать в сторону вентствола. С мест сообщают, что вдогонку насыпали хлопчикам полную охапку гостинцев. Есть пленные...
t.me
Воин DV
Богатый улов бойцов 29 Армии в ходе боёв на Угледарском направлении. Ты офигеешь, но именно так выглядят пресловутые "Волки Да Винчи". @voin_dv
t.me
Yeah, laugh at the frustrated Russians when the Turks say "No, you can't sail through the Dardanelles".
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #10,657
But it's not a carrier. It's an "aircraft carrying cruiser". That's how they got it out of the Black Sea in the first place.
True, but the Turks might not be quite so generous in their interpretation of the convention now. None of the Montreux Convention signatories objected to it being allowed out of the Black Sea in 1991, but they could very well challenge the classification if it tried to go back.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #10,659
Given the age and technical condition of the ship, it's poor op-tempo in its one and only combat deployment, and the fate of the Moskva, one would think they would welcome it with open... *ahem*... arms? No pun intended.