Middle East Defence & Security

Ananda

The Bunker Group



I was thinking before to put this on general space thread. However this thread seems more appropriate. Iran claim successfully launch research satellite into orbit.

This is the second launch for this rocket with payload toward orbit. Despite all the controversy (at least from Western Government sides) on this launch, this is also shown the stability and continue maturity of their rocket technology.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member



I was thinking before to put this on general space thread. However this thread seems more appropriate. Iran claim successfully launch research satellite into orbit.

This is the second launch for this rocket with payload toward orbit. Despite all the controversy (at least from Western Government sides) on this launch, this is also shown the stability and continue maturity of their rocket technology.
The Iranian Space Agency was established in 2004. In those 20 years they have achieved more than LAPAN in 61 years.
 

King Wally

Active Member
This is straight from a 007 plot line... I'm very interested to hear any legit explanation also.
My assumption is that perhaps this shipment was intercepted, and had small explosive devices inserted before being delivered to Hezbollah?
A truly bold plot if true.
 
Not that I expect much in the way of strategic thought from Israel but I'm a bit baffled as to what possible purpose this attack could have served. It is not really targeted in any way and will probably only serve to further galvanize the Lebanese population against them. No doubt many innocents were harmed as well. And for what? To enrage Hezbollah into further escalation? Simply to cause whatever harm they can? It doesn't seem to serve any particular purpose; it is more akin to a terror attack than anything else.
 

King Wally

Active Member
Not that I expect much in the way of strategic thought from Israel but I'm a bit baffled as to what possible purpose this attack could have served. It is not really targeted in any way and will probably only serve to further galvanize the Lebanese population against them. No doubt many innocents were harmed as well. And for what? To enrage Hezbollah into further escalation? Simply to cause whatever harm they can? It doesn't seem to serve any particular purpose; it is more akin to a terror attack than anything else.
Israel love to move preemptively so it wouldn't surprise me if they had intel of Hezbollah moving a specific plan into action, this "pager move" may have been intended to derail whatever it was they saw as imminent.

This event must have been set up long in advance, and held back for the right time?

An alternative theory would be that someone had worked out their pager was tampered with so Israel quickly hit the green light before the warning could get out? i.e the timing wasn't ideal but they didn't want to waste the opportunity.
 

SolarisKenzo

Well-Known Member
This was clearly not meant to kill, but IMHO its a good way to "scan" and to identify Hezhbollah operatives and pagers.
By monitoring hospitals you can see who's linked to hezhbollah and who's not.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Here’s TWZ take on exploding pagers. Some kind of malware to cause Li-ion batteries to explode seems far fetched to me. Surely it would take too much time to trigger this but I don’t know. Some kind of intercept at the point of manufacture (Hungry apparently) or during transport to implant explosives and triggers seems more likely. If it is the former then air travel will become an even bigger PITA!

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Re overheated batteries, I’d have to agree with this:

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Reportedly explosions today. Handheld radios now, according to the news reports.


Hard to completely disagree with SinisterMinister’s point though. Like I said, the intent is clear and that is to maim those in possession of the devices, without direct knowledge of who it may be, where they may be, etc. Could be anyone, really, a kid, a wife/husband, etc.

It appears they are now dropping bombs on Lebanon, so it was a prelude to this.

Edit: the latter is not confirmed at this point.
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Hezbollah will now have to disassemble every piece of electronic kit they acquire prior to use or their masters in Iran will have to start manufacturing stuff as an alternative. Another way to disrupt your enemy.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Have given it some thought. I don’t see how a shipment like this can be intercepted and explosives planted in a timely and discreet manner. It had to be pre-manufactured. As crazy as it sounds (no more than the whole situation, really), I see that the best explanation at the moment is that Hezbollah actually orderer these from the Israelis themselves, perhaps via a previously set up fake website or something of that nature. I wouldn’t rule out Taiwan being complicit either, to be honest, but the former is a more likely scenario, in my opinion.

Edit: Whatever happened to @BigZucchini? He’d probably have something useful to add.
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Have given it some thought. I don’t see how a shipment like this can be intercepted and explosives planted in a timely and discreet manner. It had to be pre-manufactured. As crazy as it sounds (no more than the whole situation, really), I see that the best explanation at the moment is that Hezbollah actually orderer these from the Israelis themselves, perhaps via a previously set up fake website or something of that nature. I wouldn’t rule out Taiwan being complicit either, to be honest, but the former is a more likely scenario, in my opinion.

Edit: Whatever happened to @BigZucchini? He’d probably have something useful to add.
Yes, it seems some kind of fake supplier which previously supplied kit without issue makes the most sense. Absolutely would be interesting in seeing BG’s take on this. He has been absent for awhile now.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Not that I expect much in the way of strategic thought from Israel but I'm a bit baffled as to what possible purpose this attack could have served. It is not really targeted in any way and will probably only serve to further galvanize the Lebanese population against them. No doubt many innocents were harmed as well. And for what? To enrage Hezbollah into further escalation? Simply to cause whatever harm they can? It doesn't seem to serve any particular purpose; it is more akin to a terror attack than anything else.
There are suggestions that Hezbollah was beginning to get suspicious, & it may have been approaching "use it or lose it" for the Israelis. I imagine they'd rigged all those devices so they could disrupt Hezbollah communications in any attack by Hezbollah, or by them on Hezbollah, rather than the way they've just been used, but given the choice of the effort having been wasted or a (relative) damp squib, they chose the latter.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
There are suggestions that Hezbollah was beginning to get suspicious, & it may have been approaching "use it or lose it"for the Israelis. I imagine they'd rigged all those devices so they could disrupt Hezbollah communications in any attack by Hezbollah, or by them on Hezbollah, rather than the way they've just been used, but given the choice of the effort having been wasted or a (relative) damp squib, they chose the latter.
The other alternative is the pager operation was a preliminary strike prior to an all out offensive against Hezbollah. The longer a major strike happens (or doesn’t) suggests the triggering was indeed due to suspicion the plan was due to be discovered.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Edit: Whatever happened to @BigZucchini? He’d probably have something useful to add.
I'm omni-present. Of course I'll add.
Sorry for being silent for so long. Had to deal with how to organize my personal life.

I did 3 years of service in the unit responsible for this operation. I have some insights based on what I was exposed to there, but right away I'm gonna say that this is mostly guess-work based on other operations, and some I have to leave out due to OPSEC rules.

Although there's some chatter about it being unit 8200, it's mainly a SIGINT unit with some "cyber" capabilities that are naturally relevant to SIGINT.
Unit 81 is the intelligence services' technological unit. It's a large unit, with ~3,000 servicemen. They provide the technological solution, and other more operative agencies like Shin Bet, Mossad, and others, receive the "big red button".

This is considered a common operation type for the intelligence services. Very roughly how it works:
  1. Intelligence sniffs acquisitions by hostile entities.
  2. Acquisitions and tech departments debate viability including time constraints and detectability.
  3. Acquisitions departments plot the enemy's acquisition route and present optimal entry points.
  4. Tech departments identify optimal technological entry methods.
  5. Every relevant department (I was in one of the RF comms department) gets assigned a task.
  6. Operational model done to test the product rigorously.
  7. Deploy.
This whole process is incredibly difficult and uncertain. If timelines suddenly shorten, or another transit route is picked, or a supplier is switched, things can quickly accumulate to the termination of the project.
The idea is to sniff as many such opportunities as possible, try achieve them all, and end up succeeding in just a few. Do this over a sufficient amount of time and you gather a lot of such capabilities against your enemy. They may appear random as a result, with some being more accurate than others. That's why one may ask why their pagers exploded, but not, say, their wired phones in their offices.

Regarding what may have triggered this event, there are many possibilities. Some political, some technical. As I briefly mentioned before, detectability is a crucial aspect of such an operation. A project could be in the works for nearly a decade, and on the day of deployment it's deemed too dangerous for the operators doing the installation, so they're pulled and the project's failed.
I certainly wouldn't rule out the possibility Hezbollah were very close to identifying it and Israel choosing to use it as a last resort.
Indeed it's logical to be skeptical of your hardware if your pagers just exploded, so this likely also triggered the walkie talkie detonations - use it before you lose it. I'm sure Hezbollocks were busy trying to dismantle them.
Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran - they're being embarrassed right now, but they're not incompetent. They do test their hardware, and as such it's more a testament to the intelligence services' ability to insert malware despite this.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
The beeper attack, of course, isn't even the biggest event in the last couple weeks.

On the 24th of August, as Hezbollah prepared to launch a massive rocket attack on Israel's center, the IAF pre-empted it and struck some 6,000 launch barrels.
Since then it has launched at least 2 more attack waves, each eliminating over 1,000 barrels, including one just now where they reportedly destroyed "thousands".


(Yes, I know, OSINTDefender is a horrible source, but video appears to be legit).
Notice the shockwave. In military terms, this is a big kablooey. Indicates weapons storage facility.

Following the beeper attack, Hezbollah's Radwan Force leadership, including 20 figures, gathered in what they believed to have been a secret location in the Dahiyeh suburb, a Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut.
4 bombs dropped on a building above their underground hideout, collapsing it onto them. Nothing published as far as civilian casualties, but at least 15 of them are confirmed KIA.


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To understand why Hezbollah is taking such massive hits, we must first understand how Hezbollah is built.
Hezbollah's Raison d'etre is to deter Israel from committing to a strike campaign in Iran, primarily for Iran's nuclear program. As such it needs to have the capability to inflict serious harm to Israel. What harms Israel the most? The operation of its economy.
By raining thousands of rockets on Israel, and hitting every Israel city, every industrial zone - Hezbollah can paralyze Israel's economy, costing it billions of dollars every day without even including any expenses for prosecuting a war.
Once Hezbollah achieved that, they needed to build other ways to amplify this damage. This includes operational plans to hit Israel's MIC and military installations, and destroy highly expensive Israeli military hardware, as well as hitting industrial zones that will shut down some parts of Israel's economy until they rebuild long after a war ends.

Hezbollah's strategy rests on the following pillars:
  1. Have as many projectiles as possible - from very short range to very long range.
  2. Turn as many of these into PGMs as possible.
  3. Invade Israel (Radwan Force) to delay a ground invasion and thus prolong the logevity of the missile arsenal.
Right now, we have evidence Israel is striking at launch tubes in huge numbers, as well as stockpiles. That's pillar #1 massively damaged.
Radwan's leadership has been decimated, and its mid-level officers and valuable field operatives have been hunted down for the last 11 months. That's pillar #3 practically destroyed.
Pillar #2 depends a lot on pillar #1, and itself manifests in the form of factories where they receive guidance kits from Iran and install on "dumb" projectiles. I have not seen evidence yet of their targeting, but I assume it was done to some extent.

Hezbollah has lost its capability to properly wage war on Iran's behalf. Whatever Hezbollah chooses now, it cannot come out victorious. It must decide whether to disengage, cut the losses, and hope Israel backs down, or go all in and very likely face extinction. Either way, it's very difficult to make such decisions when most of the professional leadership including the advisors are gone.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
I usually wake up tired at 7:50 AM.

Today I woke up full of energy at 6:30 AM to loud bangs. Must have been like 40.

Thanks Hezbollah!
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Hezbollah decided to finally respond, and with heavy rockets this time.
This one just a few kilometers from my home. Estimated to either be a 333mm Fajr-5 variant, or a 302mm M-302. Both have warheads around 100kg.
Fajr-5 wasn't fired at Israel since the 2006 Lebanon war.

Perhaps it's worth doing a little reality check.
I wanted to add that despite the massive hits Hezbollah took in the last couple weeks - they had decades to build resilience which they did competently. Although they lost a lot in terms of launch capability, they have a lot more of that still intact and primed for the day of the big strike.
Although it's likely their medium and long range launch capability was targeted - we don't have concrete evidence of it, let alone the scale. If the IDF had really hit thousands of CRBMs and SRBMs, we'd have definitely seen it.
So as long as the IDF chooses to avoid sysmetatically dismantling these as well, Hezbollah maintains significant capability to strike in Israel.

Of course, just because these arrays were hit, doesn't mean they're dysfunctional. Instead of 1,000 rockets in a volley, they'll fire 700. That's less, but it's still a lot.

I believe it's possible and even highly likely that the IDF maintains some secret capability similar to the pagers attack or some other capability to quickly dismantle its CRBM-SRBM force, but would rather hold off its deployment until a real war commences. This means Hezbollah could have an opportunity here at a surprise large scale attack, until Israel gets a casus belli to attack on its own.

Now, in the last several weeks, Hezbollah managed to put itself in an existential crisis of unprecedented scale. If Israel decides that its war effort will focus on getting Hezbollah to back down and cease its rocket fire - that's good for Hezbollah. But in similar fashion to Gaza - Israel could decide it seeks to dismantle Hezbollah. If that happens, they need some safety net.
Hamas abducted Israelis specifically for this purpose, and it's likely Hezbollah will at least attempt the same at some point.

Hezbollah's Radwan Force took a big hit this week when its entire senior chain of command was killed in a single strike. But it's not dysfunctional just yet. Hezbollah suffered 500 declared casualties since October 7th. About 60 in the past week alone. A sizable portion of these are Radwan and other troops along the border. Yet Radwan's size is roughly 5,000, and it's definitely a force to be reckoned with. For good reason Israel evacuated its northern communities, but Hezbollah does not remain without options.

 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Israel struck a Hezbollah heavy cruise missile as it was prepared to be launched at Israel. This is a DR-3 missile, a local name for the (probably) Tu-143. It is likely these were transferred to Hezbollah by Syria, with Russian approval.

According to Israeli media, these missiles were not targeted until now because the IDF has not evacuated civilians from such areas of Lebanon yet, therefore a strike would likely cause large civilian casualties.

More strikes quite close to civilian areas. The IDF may soon have to start evacuating these.

More footage. This time we see the cameraman already pointing at the location before the strike, indicating a roof knock in the area.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
IDF has reportedly conducted airstrikes on over 300 targets in Lebanon. I've yet to verify if these are still ongoing.

IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari says Israel is targeting Hezbollah assets primarily in southern Lebanon. These would primarily be short range rocket launchers that can cover much of Israel's north.
This is consistent with the footage with seen so far from Lebanon.

This is the deadliest day for Hezbollah since October 7th, with 100 reported deaths. Prior, Hezbollah reported that it lost over 500 of its members.

In addition to taking over radio stations, sending out text messages, and the usual knock on roof and flyers, the IDF has apparently also set up a new website for Lebanese people to get updates on critical information like how to evacuate.
 
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