John Fedup
The Bunker Group
It would have to be a long period of peace before technology in the video should be shared IMHO.
Middle East Defence & Security
- Thread starter MaenZ
- Start date
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
All dead, no survivors in the crash:
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Some photos on the wreckage has been circulating online. This is from someone X account shown the wreckage destroy on burning conditions. So yes, it is unlikely anyone survive on the impact.
Note the above photos from X seems being dispute whether all from crash site. However below photo seems so far legit an aerial photo from crash site.
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Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Amir says this is the last photo taken of the helicopter, which certainly matches the paint scheme:
EDIT: Image was too big to upload so I got this. Ignore the Mi-17 on the left.
EDIT: Image was too big to upload so I got this. Ignore the Mi-17 on the left.
Hezbollah taking out a Iron Dome launcher. Allegedly a fully loaded one.
Hezbollah Using Almas ATGMs. I dont know what the second thing hit it is. The first looks like a Namer.
@Big_Zucchini what is the current Israeli consensus on a full Northern invasion/incursion. There is no way Israel will let these "potshots" go unanswered.
Hezbollah Using Almas ATGMs. I dont know what the second thing hit it is. The first looks like a Namer.
@Big_Zucchini what is the current Israeli consensus on a full Northern invasion/incursion. There is no way Israel will let these "potshots" go unanswered.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
It was a decoy, as can be seen here:
No hydraulics, sealed canisters are empty, no wiring, illogical placement of a launcher (next to potential flammables and vehicles, especially civilian-type ones).
I'm sure there's some poll out there, but I can't find it. What I do know is the general consensus is that the situation in the north is unacceptable. About 100,000 Israelis in total are internally displaced. They can't return to their homes until the exchanges cease, for some their homes were already destroyed, people are being killed, businesses are shut down. They want some solution.
Perhaps a lower number but still a majority want a war IF it means cessation of the status quo.
Before war itself can be debated, we must look at Hezbollah's own capabilities:
דו"ח מצמרר חושף איך תיראה מלחמה עם חזבאללה | מוסף כלכליסט
3,000 רקטות ביום במשך שלושה שבועות, קריסה של מערך ההגנה מטילים, בסיסי חיל אוויר מופגזים, תחנות כוח ומתקני מים מושבתים, יישובים כבושים, הרג המוני וכאוס אזרחי בערי המרכז. דו"ח מקיף שנחשף לראשונה משרטט בפירוט מצמרר מה יתרחש בעורף ובחזית במערכה הרב־זירתית
newmedia.calcalist.co.il
Incessant rocket fire:
3,000 rockets and missiles (long range, not AT) every day for 3 weeks, aimed at military bases as well as cities in the center, joined by militias in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.
North under attack:
Hundreds of Radwan terrorists, Hezbollah's commando force, will occupy towns along the northern border to delay an Israeli ground incursion.
Collapsing Iron Dome:
Due to the rate of fire, the munitions stockpile of the Iron Dome and David's Sling will deplete in mere days. In parallel to the rocket and missile attacks, Hezbollah will also launch drones and cruise missiles that will lead to the collapse of Israel's air defenses.
Thousands of casualties in the home front:
Massive damage and thousands of casualties on the homefront and front, in about 100 ruined sites. Panic will be amplified by Hezbollah's psyops.
Cyber warfare on infrastructure:
Cyber attacks will be directed at essential infrastructure such as transportation, communication, government offices, local municipalities, and general disruption of the economy. Main routes will be blocked to delay the arrival of armed forces at the front.
Rescue forces will have a difficulty operating.
No water, electricity, and airport:
Precise missiles with warheads weighing hundreds of kilograms will be fired toward critical infrastructure. Especially water, electricity, and seaports. Arms factories, emergency storage facilities, and hospitals will also be hit. The international airport will be shut down and disconnect Israel from the world.
Missiles at airbases:
Heavy and precise missiles will be launched at Israeli airbases - toward the runways and hangars, in order to disrupt aerial operations against Hezbollah.
Okay so this was an explanation of the maximum damage Hezbollah can inflict on Israel. This obviously does not include Israeli response and initiative. All this, however, is quite well understood by the general Israeli public, and nonetheless there's the feeling that war is inevitable, so might as well do it now rather than later.
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Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
I agree with Mr Theiner here. UNIFIL was never about keeping the peace. It was a venue for money laundering.
But the troops there are real people, and every contributing state should pull its troops out. Their deployment puts them in the crossfire between Israel and Hezbollah, and even if Hezbollah chooses not to target UNIFIL troops this time, they're still likely to suffer casualties.
It is a tense time. The military objectives in Gaza are nearly complete and operational tempo has reduced significantly. Just 1-2 brigades can hold Gaza.
There was a great OSINT account on Twitter that tracked IDF deployments and training, down to specific brigades in specific areas of operation. Unfortunately his account was removed. However he did provide a good rundown recently, showing that not only is the majority of the IDF's combat force is now organized in the north, but that as of several weeks ago - over half of it had undergone refreshment and specialized training for Lebanon.
Ideally, the IDF would initiate the war during the dryest season of the summer. But not only - as Israel now has to account not only for international legitimacy, but also its own finances.
In the last couple weeks, Hezbollah has intensified its attacks on Israel quite significantly. Yet Israel has not matched the escalation. This signals that Israel wish to retaliate in a different way - perhaps by initiating a war.
But the troops there are real people, and every contributing state should pull its troops out. Their deployment puts them in the crossfire between Israel and Hezbollah, and even if Hezbollah chooses not to target UNIFIL troops this time, they're still likely to suffer casualties.
It is a tense time. The military objectives in Gaza are nearly complete and operational tempo has reduced significantly. Just 1-2 brigades can hold Gaza.
There was a great OSINT account on Twitter that tracked IDF deployments and training, down to specific brigades in specific areas of operation. Unfortunately his account was removed. However he did provide a good rundown recently, showing that not only is the majority of the IDF's combat force is now organized in the north, but that as of several weeks ago - over half of it had undergone refreshment and specialized training for Lebanon.
Ideally, the IDF would initiate the war during the dryest season of the summer. But not only - as Israel now has to account not only for international legitimacy, but also its own finances.
In the last couple weeks, Hezbollah has intensified its attacks on Israel quite significantly. Yet Israel has not matched the escalation. This signals that Israel wish to retaliate in a different way - perhaps by initiating a war.
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Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
There are reportedly tens of thousands of foreign nationals in Lebanon. IMO, any person willingly staying in a dangerous, terror-infested country, is solely responsible for his fate. And yet, it is a potential for diplomatic incidents.
Their only venue out of Lebanon, at least safely that is, is the Beirut air port. Being a country that respects international norms and its allies, Israel is likely to delay operations to its own detriment in order to facilitate orderly evacuation of foreign nationals. And yet, Hezbollah may attempt to draw Israel to fire upon the airport to shut it down, aiming to keep foreign nationals trapper in Lebanon, in order to lead to deaths of foreigners and thus to diplomatic incidents.
Of course, Hezbollah storing weapons in the Al Hariri airport isn't something new. The guy below obtained a photo from 2018:
Iran is using IRGC-owned commercial airlines to transport weapons on commercial flights, in the hopes Israel would refrain from attacking them out of fear of hitting civilians. The fact Israel never really struck these is testament to Iran's competence and ability to keep those weapons close to civilians at all times.
However, such flights are limited in capacity and are thus more likely to transport completely inert components for Hezbollah's accuracy project (turning dumb long range rockets into PGMs). Warheads and solid fuels are things Hezbollah produces on their own.
Storing items between shipments is also different from permanent storage.
So I assume what's talked about is Hezbollah's intentional storage of live munitions, perhaps to be used during a war.
It's understandable why world leaders are disinterested, for now, in the Israeli-Lebanese war. But this indifference comes at a cost - soft power. Wars between Israel and terrorist organizations usually end with some ceasefire and an international resolution Israel agrees to, and most importantly pressure from its closest allies.
I interpret it as either of 2 possibilities:
1. Israel's allies do not care enough about the consequences of the war and are disinterested in attempting to persuade Israel to end the war, and therefore showing tacit approval for a war to eradicate Iranian influence in Lebanon. This may be connected to Iran's support for Russia.
2. They care, and don't want war in Lebanon, but are making a strategic mistake not giving it attention.
Their only venue out of Lebanon, at least safely that is, is the Beirut air port. Being a country that respects international norms and its allies, Israel is likely to delay operations to its own detriment in order to facilitate orderly evacuation of foreign nationals. And yet, Hezbollah may attempt to draw Israel to fire upon the airport to shut it down, aiming to keep foreign nationals trapper in Lebanon, in order to lead to deaths of foreigners and thus to diplomatic incidents.
Of course, Hezbollah storing weapons in the Al Hariri airport isn't something new. The guy below obtained a photo from 2018:
Iran is using IRGC-owned commercial airlines to transport weapons on commercial flights, in the hopes Israel would refrain from attacking them out of fear of hitting civilians. The fact Israel never really struck these is testament to Iran's competence and ability to keep those weapons close to civilians at all times.
However, such flights are limited in capacity and are thus more likely to transport completely inert components for Hezbollah's accuracy project (turning dumb long range rockets into PGMs). Warheads and solid fuels are things Hezbollah produces on their own.
Storing items between shipments is also different from permanent storage.
So I assume what's talked about is Hezbollah's intentional storage of live munitions, perhaps to be used during a war.
It's understandable why world leaders are disinterested, for now, in the Israeli-Lebanese war. But this indifference comes at a cost - soft power. Wars between Israel and terrorist organizations usually end with some ceasefire and an international resolution Israel agrees to, and most importantly pressure from its closest allies.
I interpret it as either of 2 possibilities:
1. Israel's allies do not care enough about the consequences of the war and are disinterested in attempting to persuade Israel to end the war, and therefore showing tacit approval for a war to eradicate Iranian influence in Lebanon. This may be connected to Iran's support for Russia.
2. They care, and don't want war in Lebanon, but are making a strategic mistake not giving it attention.
SolarisKenzo
Well-Known Member
There are around 10 000 UNIFIL troops in Lebanon.
They may be the most useless contingent on the planet, but they are there.
Israel should think very carefully about the consequences of any move in Lebanon.
They may be the most useless contingent on the planet, but they are there.
Israel should think very carefully about the consequences of any move in Lebanon.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
It's always part of the calculus. But ultimately the UN is its own organization with decision makers, and if it chooses to neglect its troops while war is brewing, then that won't prevent Israel from defending itself.
wild_Willie2
Member
Israel and Hezbollah have invaded each others territory multiple times while UN staff was present on the border. These UN troops know that they are merely there to write reports about all the border violations that take place and that they have no means off actually enforcing any form of ceasefire. Both sides exactly know where the UN positions are and that these troops are basically non-combatants observers in fixed bunker positions that ,besides sending an occasional angry letter to the UN will do absolutely nothing else, so both sides just ignore them and do what they want.
Just one more example of (mostly) dysfunctional UN peacekeeping missions, currently active around the world.
Just one more example of (mostly) dysfunctional UN peacekeeping missions, currently active around the world.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
There is a precedent though, where observers feeling endangered have retreated into Israel. Not sure about armed peacekeepers.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Hezbollah reportedly fired ~40 rockets into Israel.
This is actually a regular occurrence. I get several rocket alerts every day. What's noteworthy is the barrage size.
The relevant angle to this (for this thread) is that Israel may ask as a soft condition further assistance in financing interceptors for Iron Dome, David's Sling, Arrow, or expedite their delivery, as well as possibly additional assistance with Iron Beam.
This is actually a regular occurrence. I get several rocket alerts every day. What's noteworthy is the barrage size.
The relevant angle to this (for this thread) is that Israel may ask as a soft condition further assistance in financing interceptors for Iron Dome, David's Sling, Arrow, or expedite their delivery, as well as possibly additional assistance with Iron Beam.
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Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
RUMINT of flareup between Israel-Hezbollah. Will update if anything meaningful happens.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Some momentary escalation and de-escalation yesterday, nothing new there.
Hezbollah published an interesting video of 2 Almas launches on a Merkava 4 and Namer CEV.
What's the catch? These are most likely successful interceptions. i.e. little to no damage caused.
Why do I think these were intercepted?
1. Again seems to be wire guided (steady FPS and consistent video quality), so video should have been sent until near impact. This footage was cut off much sooner than footage from a Spike would.
2. In the 2nd shot we see the Merkava that was supposedly hit. But no visible damage despite showing smoke in the thermal view.
3. All we get in terms of BDA is long distance video which only shows some heat signature that quickly dissipates, which is unconvincing and would be more consistent with an interception rather than an impact that could cause something to ignite or detonate.
Hezbollah published an interesting video of 2 Almas launches on a Merkava 4 and Namer CEV.
What's the catch? These are most likely successful interceptions. i.e. little to no damage caused.
Why do I think these were intercepted?
1. Again seems to be wire guided (steady FPS and consistent video quality), so video should have been sent until near impact. This footage was cut off much sooner than footage from a Spike would.
2. In the 2nd shot we see the Merkava that was supposedly hit. But no visible damage despite showing smoke in the thermal view.
3. All we get in terms of BDA is long distance video which only shows some heat signature that quickly dissipates, which is unconvincing and would be more consistent with an interception rather than an impact that could cause something to ignite or detonate.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Over 160 rockets fired on Israel plus 15 drones. Hezbollah wants to escalate, but I don't understand why Israel won't retaliate.
It's especially odd when considering there is international acceptance of a large scale Israeli retaliation.
It's especially odd when considering there is international acceptance of a large scale Israeli retaliation.
IRIS Sahand has capsized while in port of Bandar Abbas.
Weird considering she was tied up in port, the weather looks clear based on the photos. It would require a collision or significant flooding to lose buoyancy.
Edit:
Additional information suggest that it (unexpected flooding) was indeed what happened.
x.com
Weird considering she was tied up in port, the weather looks clear based on the photos. It would require a collision or significant flooding to lose buoyancy.
Edit:
Additional information suggest that it (unexpected flooding) was indeed what happened.
x.com
x.com
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Seems to me Hezbollah and Hamas are signalling to Israel a desire to end hostilities. Hamas by softening its demands, and Hezbollah by tying its own attacks on Israel to a ceasefire agreement with Hamas. This makes a lot of sense for all sides at the moment, including Israel if it can secure the release of all hostages.
Hamas will remain in power.
Hezbollah will be able to restore its Radwan force which is central to its strategy.
Israel will be able to stabilize its economy and restore its reserve forces which are strained and unfit for a war in Lebanon.
www.timesofisrael.com
I don't have much hope for a ceasefire agreement anytime soon, but the signs all point to a desire to a return to status quo on all sides.
Hamas will remain in power.
Hezbollah will be able to restore its Radwan force which is central to its strategy.
Israel will be able to stabilize its economy and restore its reserve forces which are strained and unfit for a war in Lebanon.
Report: Shin Bet chief to head up negotiating team departing for Cairo tomorrow
* * *
www.timesofisrael.com
I don't have much hope for a ceasefire agreement anytime soon, but the signs all point to a desire to a return to status quo on all sides.
Larry_L
Active Member
I guess Hezbollah and Hamas did not soften their demands enough. As a unity they were double tapped. Stability seems to be out the window for awhile. Most of you have seen this in the news.Seems to me Hezbollah and Hamas are signalling to Israel a desire to end hostilities. Hamas by softening its demands, and Hezbollah by tying its own attacks on Israel to a ceasefire agreement with Hamas. This makes a lot of sense for all sides at the moment, including Israel if it can secure the release of all hostages.
Hamas will remain in power.
Hezbollah will be able to restore its Radwan force which is central to its strategy.
Israel will be able to stabilize its economy and restore its reserve forces which are strained and unfit for a war in Lebanon.
Report: Shin Bet chief to head up negotiating team departing for Cairo tomorrow
* * *
I don't have much hope for a ceasefire agreement anytime soon, but the signs all point to a desire to a return to status quo on all sides.
Hamas terror chief boasted of his freedom – hours later, he was dead
Israel suspected of launching air strike that killed Ismail Haniyeh and left Middle East on brink of all-out war