News:
Greece is going to transfer 30 F16's to Ukraine.
Thought they would like the US to pay for the upgrade. I understand that the MOD30 F16's they want to give is an old upgrade.
So far the US hasn't participated in the F16 coalition.
More and more talks about F16's,
here dutch ones, being en route to or delivered soon. When they talk like that, it often means that it's already done.
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This might mean that Russia is under an obligation to keep it's negotiation promises. But it does nothing to address the point I made. At this point any treaty likely to end this war will be under threat of continued hostilities. By that logic Ukraine isn't bound to keep any treaty it signs. In which case, why should Russia sign any treaty when Ukraine by definition won't be bound by it? Why not keep NATO at bay with a fistful of nukes, while simply battering Ukraine into non-existence? Negotiations are give and take. What incentive is there for Russia to sign a deal that Ukraine won't be obligated to stick to?
You answered your own question: Russia is not interested in any deal right now, and prefer continuing the war because they know that a deal, under current conditions, won't be valid.
Of course it depends if the deal will be acceptable to Ukraine or not, with many gradients of acceptability, and fairness, in between. If a deal is not fair but signed nonetheless because Ukraine is on the verge of collapse, then the agreement can be requestioned a few years later. It doesn't mean restarting the war immediately but withdrawing from the agreement, preferably with negotiations about another agreement.
If the deal is fair or relatively fair, given that Russia could ask more, then Ukraine will be bound to it. Let's say, Russians withdraw from a lot of territories in exchange of the promise to never join NATO, IMO, this is
relatively fair, and such a deal should be acceptable and observed. I say
relatively because it's never fair to annex by force territories, but given that Ukraine would never be able to recover these territories otherwise, it can be deemed fair. It also depends on how a fair amount of territories would be defined. But you see what I mean. It's just an example.
Reversely, Russia accepting that Ukraine joins NATO in exchange of keeping a lot of territories under their control, not all but more than in the previous proposal, could also be a semi-acceptable deal. Here again it can be discussed.
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I believe you should also include the effects of the sanctions on Russia ,its not just about missiles ,
Problems mount in Russian economy as government tries to finance war machine
It's not just the effect of the sanctions. It's the effect of war itself. When 40% pf the budget goes to the military, it's clear that it's untenable. Factories and companies potentially useful for the military have to allocate 20% of their work time to military orders when requested. There is new war tax almost everybody has to pay to support the war in Ukraine. Exempt are families whose one member is serving in Ukraine.
Furthermore, the families of soldiers fighting in Ukraine, to the extent that these soldiers have families because number of them don't, are getting rich quickly thanks to the high salaires while the rest of the population is impoverishing.
These salaries being paid in Rubbles, this is causing inflation locally.
Last years exporting companies had to sell for Rubbles 60% of their foreign currencies received from exports. This year it was lowered to 40% but still a large amount.
A lot of bloggers are laughing about the US dollar being dead and replaced by BRICS currencies on new banking platforms. The reality is that Russia being forced the accept Yuans (and perhaps Rupees too) for their oil exports is a big problem for Russia.
Betting on taxing the riches is also questionable since the riches are less and less rich or have left Russia completely. (Note that they also leave Europe and the US by fear of asset freeze. They and those who escape Russia move to Asian and Arab countries.)
Those who are getting richer does so with government money. Taxing them will only recover some of the money the government had just paid them minutes before. It won't bring anything.
