The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[vikingatespam]

I don't think their performance is so poor. Yes, it's humanly disastrous and their losses are humiliating. But Ukrainians can't kick them out of Ukraine despite our help.
I don't think that firing 100 cruise and ballistic missiles per month, non stop. for two years and half is poor performance. Nor is their amount of shells and other projectiles they manage to fire at Ukrainian forces. Their mobilisation performance is not bad neither.

I mean, the fire power and the quantity of men and material Russians are able to activate to reach their goal is frighthening. Just a look at aerial pictures is enough to make you rearm ASAP.

The RU performance, esp. at the beginning of the war was a total shit show, such as their first performance after June 22, 1941, or even in the Winter War. From top to bottom, a more miserable performance in modern times, is hard to imagine.

Quantity is virtually the only quality the RU armed forces possess.

Yes, RU is learning and improving. Time will tell if they can leverage that into an appreciably larger slice of UKR.

 

[Feanor]

The RU performance, esp. at the beginning of the war was a total shit show, such as their first performance after June 22, 1941, or even in the Winter War. From top to bottom, a more miserable performance in modern times, is hard to imagine.

Quantity is virtually the only quality the RU armed forces possess.

Yes, RU is learning and improving. Time will tell if they can leverage that into an appreciably larger slice of UKR.

Not a total. The 8th Army did one hell of a job. Raced into Kherson region knocking over Ukrainian forces, seized the crossings across the Dnepr, secured Kherson, pushed out from it, handed off the westward direction to the 20th Army, and then raced eastward, sweeping through all of southern Zaporozhye, then encircling Mariupol' and taking it in ~3 weeks. If the rest of the Russian military had performed that well, Kiev in 3 days would have been a reality. The pre-war Russian army suffered from the drastically incomplete reforms that left a small number of units operating essentially as a modern military. And so for a small war there was plenty. But for a large war they reverted to units like the 90th Tanks, which was an entire tank division without a single UAV. Even when DNR Sparta Btln used UAVs at the squad level. This is just one example. This led to highly inconsistent performance that remained an issue even in the second half of 2023. It's harder to tell now, but the failures of West MD on the Kupyansk axis are telling. Only this year did the 47th Tanks finally show itself to be worth something. And it's a new unit. The rest of West MD has been lackluster. The issue is that we haven't seen Russia complete a systematic reform of the rest of the military. Instead we see things being done in spite of rather then thanks to military organization. We see UAVs being a donation effort at the lowest level, we see improvements to tank protection evolving from field improvisations, we see adaption from the personnel but organizational issues persist. For two years Ukraine has been able to hit Russian airfields with a little planning and a little luck. Not one hardened air shelter has been built. Until just recently not even one covered hangar. Some were built recently, on donated funds, at one airfield. It remains to be seen if the current shakeup changes anything, and the Russian military certainly has accumulated a lot of experience in fighting in a certain kind of environment.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Kharkov front.

I believe earlier reports about Russia taking all of Volchansk north of the river are incorrect. Only some sources have reported it and many Russian sources did not. Suriyak has since walked that back, stating a Ukrainian counter-attack, but I think the reality is Russia never quite held the area. There is a solid though small Ukrainian perimeter north of the river. Russian forces are still gaining some ground here, but very slowly.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 826: Situation on northeastern front: From Chuhuiv axis Russian Army managed to capture the Volchansky agregatny zavod factory inside the town of Vovchansk. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 820: Situation on northeastern front: During the last four days Ukrainian army was able to regroup and re-enter the Vovchansk area north of the Vovcha River. This area was not actually secured by the Russian Army, although it was declared under their control after the...

t.me

Рыбарь

Слобожанское направление: битва за Волчанск обстановка к исходу 23 мая 2024 года Российская армия продолжает штурм Волчанска, наступая в северной части города. Застройки на окраинах до улицы Короленко на текущий момент под устойчивым контролем ВС РФ. ▪️Южнее, в районе перекрестка улиц Гоголя и...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/05/23/20240523214156-509490f8.jpg

Near Liptsy Ukrainian reinforcements have pushed Russian forces back in the hills north of town.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 825: Situation on northeastern front: From Kharkov axis Ukrainian Army managed to recapture a series of positions northwest of Lyptsi following the arrival of reinforcements. Map: [...

t.me

A view of Volchansk. Large sections of the town are turning into ruins and if the fighting continues, it will be all of it.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Волчанск, за который идёт ожесточённое сражение Уличные бои кипят в центре города, более половины которого уже под армией России. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Colonelcassad

Вид на Волчанск с воздуха. Хорошо заметны последствия ожесточенных боев в городе

t.me

Russia continues to hit bridges in and around Volchansk, canalizing Ukrainian movements.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ВКС России уничтожают мосты и базы ВСУ в Волчанске, поддерживая наступление группировки «Север» в Харьковской области ▪️В ходе боев за Волчанск были уничтожены и повреждены мосты через реку Волчья, отделяющую северную часть города от южной. Враг решил контратаковать, чтобы сбить темп...

t.me

Ukrainian police car getting hit by an FPV drone near Volchansk.

Dambiev

Момент прилета русского fpv-дрона по автомобилю Национальной полиции Украины в районе Волчанска. Сообщается, что один хохлополицай уничтожен, второй - тяжелый "триста".

t.me

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vk.com

Allegedly a Ukrainian D-30 getting hit in Kharkov region by a Russian loitering munition. Note there's something concealed there, but I can't make out what, and we have no secondary explosions.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Контрбатарейная борьба от "Северных Ланцетов" на Харьковском направлении ▪️Иксоводы приняли решение добить орудие и метко отправили в неё "Ланцет". ▪️Барражирующим боеприпасом была уничтожена украинская гаубица Д-30 в районе населённого пункта Байрак. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russian loitering munitions hits a Ukrainian something, allegedly a tank. Here we clearly have secondaries, and quite a fire.

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vk.com

Ukrainian Grad hit near Kharkov. Note the explosion.

Рубрика от Ледка

БМ-21 Град - уничтожен У Шевченково Харьковской области. Геопривязка LA: (50.171660, 37.022500) Замаскированная РСЗО ВСУ сожжена БпЛA Х-51 ГрВ «N» Источник ; №2 ; №3 #Ланцет

t.me

Allegedly an AN/TPQ-49 hit in Kharkov region.

Рубрика от Ледка

AN/TPQ-49 - поражена У пгт. Вильча в Харьковской области. Геопривязка LA: (50.215570, 36.975740) Удар БпЛA 'Ланцет' ГВ «N» в контрбатарейную (КББ) РЛС Источник #Ланцет

t.me

Ukrainian SP howitzer while being transported on a trailer near Lozovaya, gets hit by a Russian loitering munition. Allegedly it's a 2S1.

Dambiev

Точный прилет ночного "Ланцета" группировки "Север" по украинской 122-мм САУ 2С1 "Гвоздика", транспортируемой на трале под прикрытием темноты по дороге возле Черкасской Лозовой в Харьковской области. Видео: @warriorofnorth Военный Осведомитель

t.me

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vk.com

Russia has begun using 2S4 super-heavy mortars, and TOS thermobarics near Volchansk. I believe the TOS is the rare new TOS-2.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Огненный ад для ВСУ: «Солнцепеки» и «Тюльпаны» группировки «Север» сжигают врага в Волчанске ▪️Бойцы группировки "Север" постепенно выдавливают ВСУ с улиц Волчанска. Основные силы ВСУ обосновались в многоэтажках в центре города по улице Гоголя. В связи с тем, что штурмовать эти постройки в...

t.me

Colonelcassad

К Волчанску подошли ТОСы и Тюльпаны Основные силы ВСУ обосновались в многоэтажках в центре Волчанска по улице Гоголя. В связи с тем, что штурмовать эти постройки в лоб смысла не имеет, а использование ствольной артиллерии малоэффективно, принято решение на применение ТОС-1А "Солнцепек" и...

t.me

A destroyed Ukrainian T-64BV with mine trawl.

Рубрика от Ледка

Т-64БВ “✚” - уничтожен Шестаково в Харьковской области. Геопривязка LW: (50.081490, 36.624740) Как был потерян танк с тралом КМТ-6 ВСУ, не установлено. Source: Scmp.com

t.me

A Ukrainian 2S1 hit by a Russian loitering munition.

Рубрика от Ледка

2С1 Гвоздика - поражена У с. Заречное в Харьковской области. Геопривязка LA: (50.076700, 36.875310) Удар БпЛA 'Ланцет' ГрВ «N» в САУ, в темное время суток Датировано : 18.05.2024. Источник #Ланцет

t.me

There are reports of a downed Ukrainian jet near Volchansk.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ В районе Волчанска сбит Миг-29 ВСУ — СМИ Из Полтавской области в сторону ДНР летели два самолета ВСУ. Один из них был сбит нашими системами С-400, второму удалось уйти. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Ukrainain SoF 8th Regiment have shown up near Liptsi.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

New Russian D-30SN gliding munitions being used by Su-34s near Kharkov.

bmpd

Видео применения новых российских управляемых авиационных бомб УМПБ Д-30СН с фронтового бомбардировщика Су-34 по целям в районе Харькова. Бомба УМПБ оснащена твердотопливным двигателем. Источник (с) t.me/warhistoryalconafter

t.me

We have an obituary of a Ukrainian officer cropping up after the recent Russian strike on the 302nd Air Defense Bde HQ. It appears the pre-war facility was still being used by the very same unit during the war.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

More Ukrainian POWs from the Kharkov area.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️️ Еще одна партия украинских военных сдавшихся в плен на Харьковском направлении ▪️Украинское командование бросило их без необходимой огневой поддержки на плохо оборудованных позициях, а численность подразделения была в несколько раз ниже заявленной на бумаге. ▪️Скотское отношение со стороны...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Бесстрашные продвигаются в Волчанске В одном из освобожденных домов группа бойцов "северян" берет в плен двух солдат ВСУ, которых бросили на произвол судьбы свои же. Их жизни теперь ничего не угрожает, кому необходимо будет оказана медицинская помощь. @warriorofnorth

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️️ Сходил за хлебом: Новые пленные солдаты ВСУ, взятые в районе Волчанска на Харьковском направлении Ну, как попал на фронт. Пошел за хлебом в магазин, подъехали ТЦКашники, кинули меня в микроавтобус и увезли. Привезли в какой-то спортзал. Дня 3 мы там побыли и нас отвезли сюда. Я даже не знал...

t.me

We have a captured Roshel Senator from Volchansk area.

Colonelcassad

Трофейный канадский МРАП "Рошель Сенатор" из Волчанска. Чутка не успел на Поклонную гору, но наверняка там еще побывает. Хорошее будет дополнение для коллекции трофейных МРАПов со всего мира.

t.me

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vk.com

Russia hit the Kharkov rail depot. Given the size of the city, it's likely the rail lines play a role in movement of reserves and supplies, but Russian efforts against them have been lackluster.

Colonelcassad

Результаты вчерашнего удара по Харьковской железнодорожной инфраструктуре.

t.me

Colonelcassad

49.957183, 36.242474 А вот и то самое вагоноремонтное ДЕПО Харькова, откалиброванное 23.05.2024. Именно туда, на попавшую под раздачу бумажную фабрику, приезжал на днях просроченный зеля. @inzheneryChMFlot

t.me

Russia hit the Epicenter shopping mall in Kharkov. Subsequent secondary detonations arguably suggest munitions were being stored there. It's not the first shopping mall used this way by Ukrainian forces. Warning footage of corpses.

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vk.com

Colonelcassad

В горящем здании гипермаркета "Эпицентр" в Харькове продолжается детонация боеприпасов. Можно вспомнить аналогичный эпизод из 2022 года, когда был уничтожен ТЦ в Киеве, где хранились боеприпасы для артиллерии и РСЗО, а также различная техника.

t.me

Ukrainian random strikes on Belgorod region continue.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️ Враг атаковал Белгородский район, убивая и калеча людей, разрушив торговый центр и дома ▪️Два человека погибли - у мужчины и женщины были множественные осколочные ранения, несовместимые с жизнью, сообщил губернатор Гладков. ▪️По предварительной информации, 10 человек пострадали, среди них...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Враг атакует Белгород из РСЗО: взрывы над городом ▪️По предварительной информации, при первом обстреле есть пострадавший, повреждены несколько жилых домов. ▪️Около 18:50 начался второй обстрел. Над Белгородом взрывы, работает ПВО. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

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vk.com

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vk.com

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Белгород в огне: Враг убивает мирных жителей, нанося удары по домам и машинам ▪️Удары из РСЗО наносятся по многоэтажным и частным домам города и автомобилям. ▪️Уточненная информация по погибшим и раненым в результате двух террористических атак Белгородского района: количество погибших мирных...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Враг ударил по Белгороду противокорабельной ракетой «Нептун» и «Вампиром» ▪️Около 22:30 мск силами ПВО уничтожены одна ПКР «Нептун» и 29 реактивных снарядов РСЗО «Вампир» над Белгородской областью, сообщает Минобороны. ▪️Тем временем пожар в Дубовом под Белгородом после прилёта...

t.me

Battlegroup North T-80BVMs heading to the front.

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Танки Т-80БВМ обр. 2022 года с заводскими антидроновыми козырьками с нанесенной маркировкой группировки войск "Север" на пути к линии фронта. На корме противодроновая защита из решетчатых экранов, установленная на воздухозаборное устройство. Причем решетчатые экраны установлены в 2 слоя, кто в...

t.me

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vk.com

Russian up-armored Ural somewhere in the Kharkov front.

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vk.com

Oskol front.

Russian forces, after taking Kislovka and Kotlyarovka, have now taken Berestovoe and Ivanovka. After the lackluster performance of West MD in their autumn push towards Kupyansk, the 47th Tanks have captured village after village in this area. Of course going all the way to Kupyansk from this area will take quite some time. Russia has also expanded their area of control around the Kislovka-Kotlyarovka area.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 823: Situation on northeastern front: Russian Army expanded the buffer zone west of Kyslivka along the railway. In addition troops made new advances around Berestove and northwest of Novoselivske. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 821: Situation on Luhansk front: During the last week Russian Army managed to capture most of the locality of Berestove. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=49.53707352831741%2C37.890032412823125&z=13 ]

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 821: Situation on northeastern front: Russian Army made new advances north of Kyslivka & entered in the first houses of Ivanivka. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=49.66381418027698%2C37.87418199892896&z=13 ]

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Бойцы 47 дивизии подняли флаг России, освободив Ивановку в Харьковской области ▪️Наши подразделения продвигаются дальше к Степовой Новоселовке. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Армия России завершает освобождение Берестового на Купянском направлении ▪️Основные силы противника уже выбиты из села на Купянско-Сватовском участке, идет зачистка. ▪️Днем ранее украинские военные аналитики сообщали, что российская пехота продвинулась вдоль улицы Центральная до 550 метров и...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 822: Situation on northeastern front: Russian Army recaptured the locality of Ivanivka. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=49.65744033641297%2C37.88693632244577&z=14 ]

t.me

Colonelcassad

Поселок Берестовое на Сватово-Купянском направлении перешел под контроль российских войск. Ранее противник был выбит из Ивановки. Стягивание резервов противника на Харьковское направление позволяет ВС РФ добиваться неплохих тактических результатов на других участках линии фронта, где недостаток...

t.me

Рыбарь

❗️ Купянско-Сватовское направление: освобождение Ивановки обстановка к исходу 26 мая 2024 года После освобождения Котляровки и Кисловки логичным продолжением наступательной операции подразделений ВС РФ стало взятие Ивановки. Сперва российские войска отработали артиллерией по населенному...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/05/26/20240526210259-5ab9c9c6.jpg

Russia has also made small gains towards Stel'makhovka.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 823: Situation on Luhansk front: during the last two days Russian Army reactivated the axis of Karmazynivka & Stel'makhivka making some advances there. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 824: Situation on Luhansk front: Russian Army continue making small gains at Karmazynivka axis. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=49.286356608701155%2C37.960378643875536&z=13 ]

t.me

Ukrainian counter-attacks continue to bite off pieces of the Russian salient towards Torskoe.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 821: Situation north of Donetsk: During the last days Ukrainian Army retook new positions southeast of Yampolivka. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=49.07034956961168%2C37.9745058832031&z=13 ]

t.me

Ukrainian tank gets hit by a Lancet strike, Kupyansk area. You can see the crew bail out afterwards. The tank is clearly not destroyed, but immobilized vehicles tend to get finished off by additional strikes. I think it's a T-72 based on the ERA layout.

Colonelcassad

Уничтожение танка ВСУ "Ланцетом" и выполнение норматива по скоростному бегству из горящей машины от украинских танкистов. Купянское направление. @razved_dozor

t.me

Allegedly Ukrainian tank burns on the Krasniy Liman axis.

Colonelcassad

Вражеский танк, предположительно Т-72М1, догорает на Краснолимаском направлении. @operational_space

t.me

Seversk.

Ukrainian forces have recaptured some ground north-east of Belogorovka. This comes even as Russian forces have taken most of Belogorovka itself. Of course this isn't that significant, the village is basically flattened. It's the refuse mounds south of it that Russia needs to take.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 820: Situation on Seversk front: During the last six days Ukrainian Army managed to recapture some positions north of Bilohorivka. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.9333491986997%2C38.23560142202751&z=14 ]

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 823: Situation on Seversk front: During the last three days Russian Army managed to enter in the center of Bilohorivka. However, its is premature to talk about the full Russian recapture of the locality as the western hills continue under the control of Ukrainian Army...

t.me

Russian forces have made gains north-ward east of the rail line runnig along a highground, and this push threatend to turn the entire Spornoe area into a salient for Ukraine. Russian forces have also grabbed some positions north of Veseloe, towards Razdolovka.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 819: Situation on eastern front: During the last four two days Russian Army made new advances southwest of Spirne and north of Vesele. Currently Russian forces are trying to capture the trench system located at the heights that overlook Rozdolivka from the northeast...

t.me

A Russian ODAB-1500 dropped on Seversk.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Chasov Yar.

Russian forces have taken most of Klescheevka, a bit of the southern part remains contested, but the main strong point in the northern and north-western hills is under Russian control. This looks to me like an organized Ukrainian withdrawal, rather then a Russian offensive, tied to the advances in and around Chasov Yar. Russian forces also now hold Andreevka, or the ruins thereof.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 819: Situation south of Bakhmut: After the capture & consolidation over the western heights the locality of Klischiivka was completely retaken by Russian Army. Ukrainian Army is currently withdrawing their forces south and westwards. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 820: Situation south of Bakhmut: Russian Army fully secured the village of Andriivka as Ukrainian Army continue towards the water canal. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.51163129336123%2C37.93622853940025&z=13 ]

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 821: Situation south of Bakhmut: Russian Army began advancing south of Ivanivske. On the other hand, the situation around Klishchiivka was clarified. The southern height is contested or under Ukrainian control, the same happen with the further south "houses". Map: [...

t.me

In Chasov Yar Russian forces have grabbed about a third of the Canal neighborhood and are holding it despite Ukrainian counter-attacks. Meanwhile north of the town, Russian forces have advanced inside of Kalinina.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 819: Situation east of Chasov Yar: During the last days Russian Army made new advances on the dachas north of Kanal microdistrict. Clashes with Ukrainian Army continue along the railway and the eastern part of Kalinina. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 824: Situation east of Chasov Yar: During the last 48 hours Russian Army took control over the trenches northwest of Bohdanivka taking control over a series of trenches in this axis. Map: [...

t.me

A view of the ruins of Chasov Yar. The town is being destroyed by the continuing fighting. I believe this is a view of the canal neighborhood we've been talking about.

Colonelcassad

Так выглядит Часов Яр, в котором продолжаются тяжелые бои между ВСУ и ВС РФ.

t.me

Ukrainian BMP-2 and MT-LB destroyed near Chasov Yar.

Рубрика от Ледка

БМП-2 - уничтожена У н.п Часов Яр Донецкой области. Геопривязка СК: (48.585070, 37.872550) Сбросом с коптера 98-й гв. вдд добита БMП ВСУ, ранее поврежденная FPV-дроном Source: Telegram ; Telegram #FPV #Сброс

t.me

Рубрика от Ледка

МТ-ЛБ - уничтожен Южнее Часов Яра Донецкой области. Геопривязка LA: (48.582972, 37.879333) Транспортер подбит ударом снаряда 3ОФ39 98-й гв. ВДД Источник #УАС

t.me

A Russian T-90M with a new anti-drone armor layout, near Chasov Yar.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[Feanor]

Ocheretino-Netaylovo.

I'm not going to refer to Avdeevka when talking about this area anymore because it's far enough in the rear to not be a useful reference. Russia forces, after securing all of Netaylovo, have also secured areas south and north of the village.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 824: Situation northwest of Donetsk city: During the last week Russian Army managed to capture the southern dachas between Netailove and Pervomaiske taking the northern ravine completely. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 819: Situation northwest of Donetsk city: During the last 36 hours Russian Army increased the buffer zone north and south of Netailovo. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.10572159814278%2C37.60397683359435&z=13 ]

t.me

Colonelcassad

Продвижение ВС РФ в районе Нетайлово карта: @z_arhiv

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Разгром ВСУ в Нетайлово: как 9-я бригада зачищала позиции ВСУ, освобождая посёлок за Авдеевкой ▪️Армия России продолжает наступление за Авдеевкой, освобождая один населенный пункт за другим. ▪️Украинские военные аналитики признали потерю Нетайлово, отметив поселок на своих картах российской...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Армия России продвинулась у Уманского и Нетайлово Вражеские аналитические ресурсы сообщают о новых неудачах ВСУ и успехах ВС РФ. ▪️На ЧасовЯрском направлении штурмовые группы российских войск продолжают наступление в районе Калиновки и в микрорайоне «Канал». ▪️На Покровском направлении ВС РФ...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Противник заявляет, что российские войска после завершения зачистки Нетайлово приступили к штурму Карловки. Бои идут у окраин Карловки. Карловка была оккупирована противником в июле 2014 года.

t.me

West of Avdeevka Russian forces have taken a buffer zone north and south-west of Umanskoe and gained some ground west of Berdychy-Semnovka. West and south-west of Ocheretino Russia has also made small gains, but remains mostly stalled in front of Sokol and Novoaleksandrovka.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 824: Situation north and west of Avdivka: Russian Army continue advancing north of Orlivka-Umanske line. In addition, troops began advancing towards Sokil from the northern axis. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 820: Situation west of Avdivka: During the last five days Russian Army took control over the last part of Umanske. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.14276155755521%2C37.59361433842341&z=13 ]

t.me

Рыбарь

Авдеевское направление: продвижение ВС РФ в районе Бердычей и Уманском обстановка по состоянию на 17.00 23 мая 2024 года Несмотря на некоторое уменьшение внимания медиа к Авдеевскому направлению, бои там не прекращаются. На текущий момент российские войска продолжают вести наступление вдоль...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/05/23/20240523162146-65c592fe.jpg

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 821: Situation west of Avdivka: After the capture of Umanske Russian Army captured the southern forest belt. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.1415933494536%2C37.584531852699854&z=13 ]

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 823: Situation north and west of Avdivka: After the capture of Umaske, Russian Army made advances north of the Orlivka-Umanske line in the last 48 hours. In addition, Russian forces advanced west of Soloviove and east and northeast of Novookeksandrivka where Russians...

t.me

A knocked out Bradley crew gets evacuated.

Colonelcassad

Еще одна подбитая на Авдеевском направлении украинская БМП M2A2 ODS-SA "Bradley" американского производства. @ChDambiev

t.me

Ukrainian Bradley hit near Sokol.

Рубрика от Ледка

M2A2 ODS-SA Bradley - уничтожена В районе с. Сокол Донецкой области. Геопривязка LA: (48.239400, 37.573410) Подбитая бойцами 15-ой гв. ОМСБр БMП ВСУ с КДЗ BRAT. Источник ; №2 ; №3

t.me

Ukrainian MaxxPro getting hit by a Russian FPV drone with thermals.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

No1 but 2 more M1s getting hit. Their survivability is clearly insufficient, removing their more advanced armor has possibly had a significant impact.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ «️тважные» поразили ещё 1 Abrams, наступая за Авдеевкой ▪️В районе н.п. Сокол за Очеретино артиллеристы 27-й дивизии группировки войск «Центр» выследили и накрыли очередной американский танк. ▪️Он был поражён точным огнём гаубицы Д-30. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Colonelcassad

t.me

Dambiev

Уничтожение высокоточным боеприпаcом "Краснополь" украинского танка M1A1SA Abrams американского производства на Авдеевском направлении. Видео (с) Сибирское объединение

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ «️тважные» сибиряки поразили ещё 1 Abrams, наступая за Авдеевкой ▪️Артиллеристы 41-й армии группировки войск «Центр» выследили и накрыли очередной американский танк. ▪️Он был поражён точным огнём управляемого боеприпаса «Краснополь», выпущенным артиллерийской бригадой сибирского объединения...

t.me

Ukrainian BMP-2 getting hit in the Avdeevka area.

Рубрика от Ледка

БМП-2 - уничтожена Возле г. Авдеевка Донецкой области. Удачный удар FPV-дроном пp. «Молот Тора» с 9-й АБр по бpошенной БMП Источник ; №2 #FPV

t.me

An M1 earlier hit, now captured by advancing Russian forces.

bmpd

Еще один захваченный российскими войсками подбитый танк M1A1 Abrams ВСУ на Авдеевском направлении. Сообщается, что танк был поражен 2 мая. Фото (с) t.me/veles_v_okope

t.me

Novomihailovka-Krasnogorovka area.

In Krasnogorovka Russian forces have captured the western outskirts, but the northern side of town remains in Ukrainian hands.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 819: Situation west of Donetsk city: During the last four days Russian Army managed to capture Fermerska street & Alexandrovskoye farm base on the western part of Krasnogorivka. Combats with Ukrainian Army continue at the center of the town without changes. Map: [...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Противник подтверждает потерю контроля над юго-западной частью Красногоровки. ВС РФ опираясь на комплекс зданий Огнеупорного завода продолжают расширять зону контроля внутри города.

t.me

Russian forces have gained some ground insinde Paraskovievka, and also north and south of Novomihailovka.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 820: Situation southwest of Donetsk: Russian Army made small advances southwest of Novomykhailivka and inside Paraskoviivka. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.8444995077794%2C37.439339964753536&z=13 ]

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 823: Situation southwest of Donetsk: Russian Army restarted the advances west of Solodke in the direction of Vodyane. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.80430480896632%2C37.41225501954277&z=12 ]

t.me

Another Leo-2A4 getting hit near Mar'inka.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Армия России уничтожила очередной Leopard на Марьинском направлении ▪️На кадрах немецкий "Леопард" ведёт огонь прямой наводкой по какой-то заглубленной цели. Второй план - общая картина сражения, Leopard уже вовсю дымит. Третий план - немецкий танк прожаривается. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

A Bradley allegedly getting hit near Krasnogorovka. If this is accurate, this is our first sighting of these IFVs outside of the Avdeevka area in a long time.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Спецназ во взаимодействии с артиллеристами охотится на БМП "Бредли" под Красногоровкой Расчетом FPV отряда СпН "Грачи" с помощью дрона разведчика было вскрыто передвижение БМП "Бредли" с десантом противника. Был нанесен удар FPV-дроном, который обездвижил машину. В результате точной стрельбы...

t.me

Russian counter-battery fires from a 2S5 hit a towed gun of some sort, allegedly an M777, near Ugledar.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

«Гиацинт» морпехов против американских «Трёх топоров» в боях на фронте у Угледара ▪️Американская артиллерийская система открыла огонь по российским позициям кассетными боеприпасами. М777 была очень хорошо замаскирована, но морпехи 40-й бригады обнаружили её в районе Новоукраинки и подтвердили...

t.me

2 Ukrainian POWs from an assault team in Krasnogorovka. I believe this is indirect evidence of Ukrainian counter-attacks here, possibly explaining why Russia hasn't been able to advance in the town.

Colonelcassad

ДВА УКРАИНСКИХ ВСУшника(штурмовика), ОСТАВШИЕСЯ В ЖИВЫХ ИЗ ДЕСЯТИ СОЛДАТ ВСЕЙ ГРУППЫ, СДАЛИСЬ В КРАСНОГОРОВКЕ 5-я бригада 1-го корпуса захватила их при отражении контратаки ВСУ. При опросе выяснилось, что на фоне всех разговоров о нехватке солдат на Украине, командиры тратят своих людей в...

t.me

Zaporozhye front.

Russian forces continue to chip away at the Rabotino salient.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 820: Situation on Zaporizhia front: During the last two days Russian Army made new advances northwest of Verbove taking control over a series of trenches from Ukrainian Army. Map: [...

t.me

In the Vremyevskiy bulge area Russian forces have retaken most of Staromayorskoe, and are advancing east and west of the Mokrie Yaly river valley.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 826: Situation on Velikonovoselkovskaya front: During the last hours Russian Army managed to secure the southern and central parts of Staromaiorske. Ukrainian Army retreat from the remaining part of the locality under its control and troops are located now in the...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 825: Situation on Velikonovoselkovskaya front: During the last five days Russian Army made new advances in the northern part of Staromaiorske. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.74834040812538%2C36.813980292942425&z=13 ]

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 823: Situation on Velikonovoselkovskaya front: During the last three days Russian Army made small advances in the southern parts of Urozhaine. On the othern hand, Ukrainian Army retreated from big parts of Staromaiorske & only controls now 30% of the locality. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 820: Situation on Velikonovoselkovskaya front: During the last days Russian Army made new advances in Staromaiorske taking control over 40% of the locality. In addition, new advances were made by Russian troops adjacent to the road towards Rivnopil. Map: [...

t.me

Рыбарь

❗️ Времьевское направление: танковые рейды в Старомайорском и бои в Урожайном обстановка к исходу дня 29 мая 2024 года Российские войска успешно развивают наступление на участке Старомайорское — Урожайное, возвращая утраченные год назад территории. ▪️Утром в Старомайорском бойцы ВС РФ из 218...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/05/29/20240529212917-8291f64e.jpg

Colonelcassad

#Старомайорское Штурмовики 394 полка на мотоциклах залетают в Старомайорск. Враг выбит из центра населенного пункта. Источник Геопозиция Карта Поддержать Почта "Z-комитет"

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Бронегруппа армии России ворвалась в центр Старомайорского, ведя мощный штурм Украинские военные аналитики геолоцировали кадры прорыва сил группировки "Восток". ▪️"ВС РФ атаковали Старомайорское мотострелковыми подразделениями при поддержке бронетехники, войдя с запада в центральную часть...

t.me

A Russian missile strike takes out a bridge across the Mokrie Yaly river, between Vermyevka and Velikaya Novoselka.

Colonelcassad

Новый удар высокоточной ракетой Х-38МЛ воздушного базирования по частично разрушенному мосту через реку Мокрые Ялы между Времьевкой и Великой Новосёловкой (координаты: 47.83990, 36.82550). Удары по постам и перепрпвам в прифронтовой зоне становится привычным делом, что не может не радовать...

t.me

Russian missiles being lobbed toward Ukrainian positions in the Vremyevskiy bulge area.

Colonelcassad

t.me

Ukrainian artillery, allegedly M777, getting hit near Gulyaypole. We can see the crew active around it.

Рубрика от Ледка

171-я подтвержденная M777 - уничтожена В районе города Гуляйполе Запорожской области. Удар снарядом 3ОФ39 69-й ОБрП по ОП гаубицы "Портвейн" Источник #УАС

t.me

Ukrainian M113 knocked out in Urozhaynoe.

Рубрика от Ледка

M113 - уничтожен В н.п Урожайное Донецкой области. Геопривязка LA: (47.744350, 36.820600) Бронетранспортер подбит артиллеристами с 36-й ОА. Источник

t.me

Russia has captured some Ukrainian POWs in Zaporozhye. I believe this is the Rabotino salient, since the 19th Motor-Rifles are involved.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Атака на Запорожском фронте: наши захватили позиции врага, военные ВСУ сдаются в плен ▪️Под Васильевкой бойцы отдельного разведывательного батальона 19 дивизии ВС РФ при поддержке мотострелков с наскока штурмом взяли вражеские позиции и захватили пленных. ▪️Теперь ВСУшники говорят, что все мы...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Пленные ВСУшники с Запорожского направления Бойцы отдельного разведывательного батальона 19 мсд ВС РФ при поддержке мотострелков штурмом взяли позицию противника и захватили пленных

t.me

Crimea and the Black Sea.

In a recent Ukrainian attack, a Ukrainian unmanned boat fired Grad munitions towards the Kinburn peninsula. The 2-5th links have a good look at these boats.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️ На украинские морские дроны Sea Baby устанавливают РСЗО "Град" ▪️Вражеские ресурсы публикуют кадры зимних полевых испытаний таких дронов, но без выхода в море. ▪️Оснащение дронов РСЗО позволит им наносить удары на расстоянии. ▪️Эффективность таких дронов остается под вопросом. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

bmpd

Украинские безэкипажные катера типа Sea Baby, оснащенные 122-мм направляющими от РСЗО БМ-21 "Град".

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian helos hunting Ukrainian drones at sea.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Strikes.

Russia hit the Aviatorskoe airfield, hitting a Ukrainian MiG-29. The jet may have been out of service for some time (since the April 18th strike), but was used previously during this war. We can see a secondary detonation suggesting fuel or munitions. Reportedly an Iskander was used.

Fighterbomber

Собственно, пруф сегодняшнего удара по МиГ-29 на аэродроме "Авиаторское". Не самое красивое видео, но как говорится, чем богаты. ‍♂

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Кадры удара по авиации ВСУ на авиабазе "Авиаторское" под Днепропетровском ▪️Удар нанесён по истребителям МиГ-29 ракетой ОТРК «Искандер-М» по авиабазе Авиаторское днем. Контроль осуществлял разведывательный беспилотник «Орлан-10». ▪️Ракета ударила по стоянке Як-40, рядом с которыми стояли и...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Сегодня на аэродроме "Авиаторское" (Днепропетровская область) был уничтожен украинский истребитель МиГ-29 (скорее всего бывший польский). Прилетел "Искандер".

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian Burun tug boat getting hit on the Dnepr.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian MR-18 radar hit in Sumy region.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian Bogdana 2S22 howtizer hit in Sumy region.

Dambiev

Кадры поражения очередной САУ 2С22 "Богдана" ВСУ (шестой по счету за последний месяц) ударом БПЛА Ланцет на Сумском направлении ИЗНАНКА Наш Чат ✉️Прислать новость

t.me

4 Russian LMURs hit a Ukrainian crossing (it says pontoon but it looks like a mechanized bridge) and vehicles.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russia hit the Zaporozhye airport. Reasons are unclear.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Ракетным ударом разрушен аэропорт Запорожья Кадры последствий прилетов по аэропорту опубликовал депутат Рады Магомедов, сообщается, что удар нанесен днём. Отметим, что ровно 10 лет назад украинские нацисты нанесли удар по Донецкому аэропорту. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Rolling blackouts continue in Ukraine. The damage to Ukraine's generation has had a significant impact, moreso then previous Russian strikes against mainly transformers and the distribution grid.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠Новые кадры ночного Киева без света после массированных ударов по энергосистеме публикуют местные ресурсы На кадрах – Троещина. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

It appears that in response to Ukrainian strikes Russia is setting up decoy jets at airfields. Anything not to bother with building proper hardened sheltesr I guess...

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukraine has struck Lugansk again, target is not immediately clear. Reportedly impacts were on the old navigators school, but it's not clear what the facilities are being used for now.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Враг нанёс удар по Луганску, на окраине пожар Сообщается, что как минимум часть ракет HIMARS сбита. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Рыбарь

Украинские формирования третий раз за месяц атаковали Луганск. Вероятнее всего, удар был нанесен из ОТРК ATACMS ракетой с кассетной боевой частью, о чем сообщили местные власти. По предварительным данным, прилеты зафиксированы в районе бывшего Училища штурманов на окраине города. На месте...

t.me

 

[Feanor]

Other interesting bits.

In Kherson region Ukrainian forces have moved out of the Krynki area, moving southward. Parts of the immediate coastline here are not under Russian control due to the poor terrain. Russian forces tend to be some distance inland. The foothold here is likely just as unhelpful as inside Krynki itself.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 822: Situation in Kherson front: Over the past three weeks, Ukrainian Army has gradually moved from the village of Krynky to the neighbouring village of Kozachi Laheri. With the start of a new operation, Ukrainian forces completely abandoned Krinky and moved north and...

t.me

A Russian soldier downs an FPV drone with a shotgun, head-on. This is very risky, since if he misses, it will hit him.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

An old Russian Grad-1 MLRS in the 85th Motor-rifles.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian sources published the photo of a new Russian drone that appears similar to the Italmas drone shown previously by Russian sources.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A Russian Ka-52 launching a Kh-39 missile. This might be a Ka-52M, prior to this the munition hadn't been used by the type.

Fighterbomber

Запуск Х-69 Х-39 по хохлам с Ка-52. Совсем недавно Ка-52 не умел пускать эту ракету. Совсем недавно самолеты не умели рассчитывать параметры стрельбы НАРами с кабрирования, не умели бросать УМПК, всякие там Р-37 и прочие Х-38. Чему они научатся к концу войны, даже страшно подумать. Но то что...

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A crashed Mohajer-6, with munitions on it, in Kursk region.

bmpd

Третье известное появление на видео разведывательно-ударного БПЛА Qods Mohajer-6 иранского производства, используемого ВС России. Бортовой номер машины ER-858 - такое обозначение принято на экспортных вариантах. Вооружен дрон ракетами "воздух - земля" Ghaem-5 (Qaem-5). БПЛА потерпел крушение в...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Иран впервые поставил России новейшие авиабомбы для ударов по Украине ▪️Кадры с тяжёлым иранским БПЛА Mohajer-6, потерпевшим крушение в Курской области проанализировали эксперты. Аналитик Bild Рёпке пишет, что дрон нёс на борту новейшие иранские управляемые авиабомбы Qaem-5. ▪️По внешнему...

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Another Russian BMP-2 with extra armor.

БМП такие, БМП сякие.

Экраны уже промышленные, а вот мангалы нет.

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

A T-72A turning into a hangar, and another "naked" T-72A with cages being added.. There have been more instances of early version T-72s without ERA showing up, but so far they seem to be a minority not only compared to their newer variants, but even compared to the older T-62M.

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Процесс создания очередного сарая на гусеницах из старенького Т-72А без ДЗ от ВС РФ. Такой процесс сейчас уже не чье-то инициативное творчество, а спущенный сверху указ. У всех получается по-разному – где-то нашли старый гараж, где-то заборчик, оградку, стальной прокат. Кстати конструкция из...

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Все более массово можно заметить поставки «голых» танков в ВС РФ. Вот к примеру эта 72-ка из разряда «ДЗ добудете в бою». На данный момент в РФ утрачены технологии производства не только контейнеров НКДЗ но и самих элементов динамической защиты, а также зарядов для разминирования на основе...

t.me

Russian BTR-82A with impressive camouflage and anti-drone screens.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian D-30 with a roof-cage.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russia's improvised depth-charge MLRS remains in service.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A now rare Russian Shturm-S self-propelled ATGM carrier with anti-drone screens. Pre-war every Russian brigade and regiment typically have a battery or in some cases even btln of "anti-tank artillery" most frequently represented by Shturm-S ATGM carriers, though in rare cases by newer Khrizantema or Konkurs-P systems, or older Konkurs on BRDM-2 chassis.

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

ПТРК "Штурм-С" ВС РФ. С такими мангалами и надстройками преимущества этого незаметного комплекса теряются.

t.me

A scarce Russian Tayfun-VDV MRAP with it's 30mm autocannon in the war zone.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

We have a sighting of "caged" Abrams. The 4-5ths link even have one with ERA and a roof cage. Painful lessons learned from losing many of these relatively tanks. This is of course the 47th Mech Bde.

Соціально-Побутовий Журнал "Водограй"

M1A1SA-UKR Abrams з ДЗ ARAT-1, «Контакт-1» і новими сітками на башті від МетІнвеста.

t.me

bmpd

Украинские М1А1 Abrams получили защитные решетки, поставленные группой Рената Ахметова. Мангалы, видимо, американский дедушка еще не разрешает

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Про это - https://t.me/btvt2019/12411 #Abrams

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian Su-27 carrying 2 SDBs on a pylon and MiG-29AS carrying 5 SDBs.

bmpd

Американские малогабаритные управляемые авиационные бомбы GBU-39/В SDB на подвеске истребителя Су-27 Воздушных сил Украины.

t.me

bmpd

Бывший словацкий МиГ-29AS украинских воздушных сил сразу с пятью американскими авиабомбами GBU-39B SDB. Ранее данные бомбы засветились на Су-27. Благодаря небольшим габаритам и весу SDB, некоторые самолеты могут нести сразу большое количество таких бомб - вплоть до 16 единиц, либо поражая за...

t.me

Ukrainian Su-24MR carrying a recon pod. Despite their age, Ukraine continues to make the best of their meager airforce.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian soldiers posing with their FrankenSAM.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian AIFV-B-C25 with logs as armor.

Бревноутом может стать каждый, главное захотеть.

Экс-бельгийская AIFV-B-C25 в рядах ВСУ by PzWfll

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Ukraine's 3rd Assault Bde shows a LuAZ-967M, an old Soviet equivalent of the Chinese Desertcross that Russia uses.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Reportedly Ukraine got its 4th Iris-T from Germany.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Indian and Pakistani shells in Ukrainian service.

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Индийские и пакистанские выстрелы для танков встретились.

t.me

bmpd

125-мм осколочно-фугасные танковые снаряды индийского производства на вооружении ВСУ. Ранее у ВСУ встречались 155-мм снаряды M1A4 ERFB-BT и M107 HE также индийского производства. Источники и пути поставок партий данных снарядов на Украине неизвестны, однако в феврале The Washington Post...

t.me

There are reports that French instructors will be heading to Ukraine after all.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Reportedly Ukraine is borrowing a page from Russia's playbook and is recruiting prisoners to fight in the war.

На Украине начали освобождать заключенных для отправки на фронт

Хмельницкий суд освободил по УДО заключенных, которые выразили желание подписать военный контракт. Ранее Зеленский подписал закон, который позволяет досрочно освобождать осужденных за нетяжкие преступления для мобилизации

www.rbc.ru

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️На Украине неонацистские отряды уже вербуют особо опасных зеков в тюрьмах на фронт ▪️Кадры общения с группой заключённых опубликовал боевик украинского неонацистского штурмбатальона "Да Винчи", созданного фашистами "Правого сектора". ▪️"Мы запрыгнули в этот процесс и обращаемся к...

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A look at Russian road construction in the Azov sea area.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Я много пишу про сухопутный коридор в Крым — дороге, проходящей через наши новые регионы. Хочу отметить, что все это время в Херсонской области не прекращается ремонт старых дорог и строительство новых. К началу нынешнего курортного сезона в Крыму уже идет ремонт дорог от Новотроицкого до...

t.me

Colonelcassad

t.me

 

[Fredled]

Sweden will donate one ASC 890 Airborne Surveillance and Control aircraft
It will help missions flown by F16's.
_____________________
Ukraine confirms ATACMS strike on Kerch ferry crossing

On the other side of the strait:
Ukraine strikes a ferry crossing and an oil terminal at Port Kavkaz with Neptunes
(No picture yet)
Second wave of explosions at Port Kavkaz.
It's an interesting development because it will further reduce transportation from mainland Russia to Crimea. And it's probably not the last of such strikes.
Note that Ukrainians say they used their own Neptune missiles to strike the Russian side of the strait while openly confirming the use of ATACMS on the Crimean side.
Joe Biden has given Ukraine flexibility to strike military targets not far inside Russia with US wepaons but not with ATACMS.
___________________

It's official: China will not attend the Ukraine peace conference in Switzerland (Reuters).
It's a big diplomatic defeat for Zelensky. But it also makes things clear who is with who. And it's unfortunate.

China has always insisted that an international peace conference should be endorsed by both Russia and Ukraine, with the equal participation of all parties, and that all peace proposals should be discussed in a fair and equal manner. Otherwise it will be difficult for it to play a substantive role in restoring peace.

It's not a valid reason. The goal of the conference is to discuss a proposal that will be given to Russia to consider peace talks. This proposal will be drafted or signed by participating countries. But obviousely, Russia can't take part in discussion about a proposal to themselves.

Insisting on the presence of Russia means that China wants to change the goal of the summit and defend Russia's position. China is not interested in making reasonable proposals to Russia to stop the war.

Ukraine may use the Swiss talks to try to get a broader group of countries to back Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's demand for a total Russian withdrawal.

Of course. It has always been the goal for Zelensky. And, in theory, that's what Russia should do to return to legality. Putin forgets that the presence of his soldiers in Ukraine is illegal and the reason for the war.
However, we should expect the proposal to be some sort of 50/50 deal to have a chance to be contemplated by Putin.
___________________

Ukraine pays from 100 to 200 thousand euros per month for violations of human rights (as I understand in the penitenciary system) according to the decisions of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR).
___________________

 

[Feanor]

It's official: China will not attend the Ukraine peace conference in Switzerland (Reuters).
It's a big diplomatic defeat for Zelensky. But it also makes things clear who is with who. And it's unfortunate.

It's not a valid reason. The goal of the conference is to discuss a proposal that will be given to Russia to consider peace talks. This proposal will be drafted or signed by participating countries. But obviousely, Russia can't take part in discussion about a proposal to themselves.

Insisting on the presence of Russia means that China wants to change the goal of the summit and defend Russia's position. China is not interested in making reasonable proposals to Russia to stop the war.


Of course. It has always been the goal for Zelensky. And, in theory, that's what Russia should do to return to legality. Putin forgets that the presence of his soldiers in Ukraine is illegal and the reason for the war.
However, we should expect the proposal to be some sort of 50/50 deal to have a chance to be contemplated by Putin.

I think Ukraine realizes if they negotiate with Russia, they have very little leverage to get anything other by surrendering territory, and they hope to leverage the implied pressure through the support of many countries to improve their bargaining position. I think the offer won't be very good, will involve a demand for the return of most of the territory Russia has taken, with some discussion around the future of the LDNR and recognition of Russian claims to Crimea. I suspect Russia will reject the offer outright. I don't think anything resembling a 50/50 deal will be offered.

 

[Fredled]

I suspect Russia will reject the offer outright. I don't think anything resembling a 50/50 deal will be offered.

It's hard to say what a reasonable 50/50 deal would be. For both Zelensky and Putin such a thing is impossible.
But I agree that there is high chances that Russia rejects it outright and that they already decided to reject it no matter its content. (Putin will say that a deal proposed without China is not worth considering.)

But he will at least know what's the basis for starting negotiation commonly accepted by The West, India and a few other countries (if the latters agree on the text).
I made a search on what was the decision of India and found this, as the most recent information:
India's PM confirms India will participate in Peace Summit in Switzerland
It's not known at which level. As I understand it's unlikely that Modi would come in person. But there is a wide range of diplomacy levels available.

There are reports that French instructors will be heading to Ukraine after all.

It's a very active debate topic in France. In fact, it will be only an increase of the number of instructors already there.

Lithuania also joins the initiative:

We have French initiative, you know, for training or sending troops to Ukraine. Again, Lithuania clearly indicates that we are ready. And then it's German, and then again, we indicate that we are ready to join with our radar systems that we are going to add are going to complement the equipment that's being sent by Germany to Ukraine

(Germany also said something, it seems, but I don't know what.)

An old Russian Grad-1 MLRS in the 85th Motor-rifles.

Is realy very old, like from the 50's, or it just looks old?

It appears that in response to Ukrainian strikes Russia is setting up decoy jets at airfields. Anything not to bother with building proper hardened sheltesr I guess...

I have read somwhere that some "NATO" missiles are able to make a difference between a real target and a decoy. (But I con't find information about that right now.)

Rolling blackouts continue in Ukraine. The damage to Ukraine's generation has had a significant impact, moreso then previous Russian strikes against mainly transformers and the distribution grid.

It seems that their last waves, starting one and half months ago, had a lasting effect.

Russian helos hunting Ukrainian drones at sea.

The same scene filmed by the drone in question

Very impressive explosion and demonstration of fire power directed at other drones in the second part of the video. (IMO, it's a montage of two separate events.)
_______________________

Ukraine claims to have destroyed a Nebo-SVU long-range radar in Armiansk
______________________

Use of Western weapons on Russian territory:

Germany allows Ukraine to use German weapons against targets inside Russia

Together we are convinced that Ukraine has the right under international law to defend itself against these attacks. For this, it can also use the weapons delivered for that purpose in accordance with its international legal commitments, including the ones delivered by us

France gives a diplomatic permission. <== Link in french but I will translate:

According to War Laws, an agressed country can strike in retaliation, centers of military agression against its territory. This "diplomatic permission" is only tha application of the law.
A country in legitimate defence canuse wepaons delivered by other countries. We give weapons to a country to defend itself.
It's Russia which changes their way to make war, and notably, by relocating behind thier borders. Therefore, it's also Russia which has taken the risk of being hit in its own territory. Don't reverse the roles.

US:

Over the past few weeks, Ukraine came to us and asked for authorization to use the weapons that we are providing to defend against this aggression, including against Russian forces that are amassing on the Russian side of the border and then attacking into Ukraine. That went right to the president, and as you've heard, he's approved the use of our weapons for that purpose.
We want to make sure that we are proceeding deliberately as well as effectively.

Lithuania:

if Russia moves military assets to another location, then "the choice of targets should also be moved.
mean Ukraine must have the ability to defend itself. If Russia, fearing that (military - ed.) targets may be attacked in Russia, moves them somewhere else, then I think that the choice of targets should also be moved.

The European Union does not comment but...

"It is not our place to comment on the remarks of NATO Secretary General or NATO members. We had a similar discussion in the EU among defense ministers earlier this week. And high representative was very clear that the bottom line for us, the main position of the European Union is that Ukraine is fighting legitimate self-defensive war against an aggression.

Ukraine has the right to self-defense, according to international law, and such self-defense may include strikes against an aggressor on its territory, when it comes to military targets

_____________________
Humour of the day:
Ukraine asks for more Karl Gustav's.
But this time, not the anti-tank weapon but the real guy, The king of Sweden.

 

[Feanor]

It's hard to say what a reasonable 50/50 deal would be. For both Zelensky and Putin such a thing is impossible.

I assumed you meant 50/50 literally. Russia returns half of what it took, and gets to keep the other half officially rather then just occupied territory.

But I agree that there is high chances that Russia rejects it outright and that they already decided to reject it no matter its content. (Putin will say that a deal proposed without China is not worth considering.)

Obviously it won't reject it no matter what the contents. We could easily come up with a hypothetical set of contents that Russia would jump on in a heartbeat.

But he will at least know what's the basis for starting negotiation commonly accepted by The West, India and a few other countries (if the latters agree on the text).
I made a search on what was the decision of India and found this, as the most recent information:
India's PM confirms India will participate in Peace Summit in Switzerland
It's not known at which level. As I understand it's unlikely that Modi would come in person. But there is a wide range of diplomacy levels available.

Agreed. I think this is the start of the process of negotiating. It will likely be a long road with both sides more or less willing to move from their positions based on performance on the front.

Is realy very old, like from the 50's, or it just looks old?

It's from 1976. Pre-war it was out of service, but some were pulled back out as part of the mobilization efforts. The chassis is a ZiL-131, it has that old look. The truck actually remained in production into the 2000's, without major redesign to the appearance.

I have read somwhere that some "NATO" missiles are able to make a difference between a real target and a decoy. (But I con't find information about that right now.)

Apparently civilian satellite imagery can make the difference, so I'm not sure that matters. Just map the decoys in advance, and don't target them.

 

[KipPotapych]

Germany has been spending money in other countries, buying secondhand stuff to be given to Ukraine. IIRC Rheinmetall is currently making ammunition outside Germany to fill German orders for Ukraine & to refill German stocks, & is investing in expanding production in Hungary as well as Germany. The Czech ammunition project has sourced 122mm, 152mm, & most of all 155mm shells from various places around the world, & multiple NATO countries have given money to it. Denmark gave Ukraine artillery it had just bought for its own army, & bought new guns from Israel as replacements (because it could deliver first).

So while they might prefer that money they give is spent at home, they mostly don't insist on it. The Germans seem quite willing to buy cheaper, or stuff for quick delivery, outside Germany.

Re Czech initiative and money. A few days ago, there was the following report:

Czech Defense Minister Jana Černochová has called on European allies to contribute financially to the Czech initiative for ammunition for Ukraine, as only four countries have fulfilled their financial commitments so far, citing Euractiv.

The initiative has secured financial commitments from 18 countries, predominantly EU and NATO members. Czechia positions itself as an intermediary, coordinating donor commitment memorandums and procurement agreements, and then overseeing the logistical aspects of deliveries.

Although the number of countries pledging financial support is increasing, only a few have actually sent funds.

"Funds flow to us gradually; we cannot buy ammunition on debt. If some countries have signed a memorandum but have not yet sent funds, we cannot proceed with acquisitions. It is a bit of an appeal to those governments which have already signed memorandums to send the money," Černochová said, emphasizing the logistical and financial challenges.

She also mentioned that so far, only Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Portugal have sent money for the purchase of ammunition.

Only four countries sent money to fund ammunition for Ukraine - Czech Defense Ministry

Read more

newsukraine.rbc.ua

Today, it was reported that Russia is buying up the same ammunition because they pay the cash before the coalition:

Russia is beating western capitals in securing artillery supplies on international markets, the Czech government has said, warning that delayed payments to arms companies could lead to millions of ammunition rounds being sent to Moscow instead of Kyiv.

Prague is coordinating purchases of ammunition from arms companies in non-Nato countries on behalf of many western allies, but is struggling to compete with Moscow, which has proved it can get financing to manufacturers faster.

“There are some countries that are supplying [Ukraine] from the same stockpiles that the Russians are [buying from],” Tomáš Kopečný, Prague’s envoy for the reconstruction of Ukraine, told journalists Thursday. “If you have the cash to do the pre-payment faster than the Russians, then the products go to the Ukrainian side. If you don’t have the cash on the account, then sometimes it goes to the Russians.”[…]

“The production capacity is out there. But it is not in Europe,” Kopečný said. “There are single-digit millions of rounds of ammunition that we are competing [with Russia] for . . . The only thing we need for that is corresponding finances.”

Russia sources ammunition faster than west, says Prague

Czech government warns that payment delays to international arms makers could deprive Kyiv of millions of shells

www.ft.com

Also of note from the same article:

The Czech warning comes as its domestic arms producer Czechoslovak Group, the largest ammunition supplier in central Europe, warned that rising prices and poor quality meant that half the shells it had received could not be sent to Ukraine’s battlefields as quickly as planned.

Michal Strnad, owner and chair of CSG, told the Financial Times that about 50 per cent of the parts acquired by his company on behalf of the Czech government in places such as Africa and Asia were not good enough to be sent to Ukraine without further work. For some shells, CSG is being forced to add missing components from its own production.

“Every week the price is going up and there are big issues with the components,” Strnad said during an interview in his company’s Prague offices. “It’s not an easy job.”

And

Strnad said that the order books of European ammunition makers were full for up to the next eight years, depending on the type of parts, even as “all of us are increasing the capacities”.

Even in the unlikely scenario of Ukraine’s war finishing right now, he said, “there will be huge work in front of us to replenish the strategic stocks of Nato countries”.

 

[Fredled]

I assumed you meant 50/50 literally. Russia returns half of what it took,

Not exactly, but something of that effect.

Czech initiative and money.

Again, I'm one more time angry at european leaders who made commitments but didn't send the money. That's a shame.

about 50 per cent of the parts acquired by his company on behalf of the Czech government in places such as Africa and Asia were not good enough to be sent to Ukraine without further work. For some shells, CSG is being forced to add missing components from its own production.

This slows the delivery even more. And the quality won't be as good as NATO grade shells. This initiative won't help as much as it should.

I wonder if Russians didn't pay some suppliers for delivering defectuous or uncomplete shells to the Czechs, hoping that the shells will be send directly to Ukraine without verification...?

There are some countries that are supplying [Ukraine] from the same stockpiles that the Russians are [buying from],

In every bad news, there is a good news. If Russians are buying shells abroad, it means that their domestic production is not yet up to full output. But their non-military industry is already producing for the military in the context of the war economy.
Or do they buy these shells so that the Czechs can't buy them? That would be expensive policy...

_________________________

Poland proposes to train Ukrainian conscripts who are residing in Poland.
This is very clever because these Ukrainians who are hiding in Poland would not be able to evade conscription any more, or not so easily, without the need to deport them. As I understand, these conscripts could be allowed to stay in Poland during and after their service.
During their training, some conscripts could be convinced to return voluntarily to Ukraine to fight.

To complete the list of countries who agree and those who don't:
Belgium not to allow Ukraine use its F-16 for hitting targets inside Russia

The security agreement stipulates that military equipment will be used by the armed forces of Ukraine and on the territory of Ukraine

But will deliver 30 F16's until 2028, starting this year.
These F16's had to be replaced by F35's.

US officially confirms: Ukraine can use US weapons to strike inside Russia, but not ATACMS.

the decision is aimed at disrupting the Russian offensive and "does not apply to ATACMS or long-range strikes

 

[KipPotapych]

Another Russian S300/400 battery hit, this time by HIMARS in the Belgorod region. It’s kind of funny because of the persistent reports about greatly decreased accuracy of HIMARS due to EW.

Досье Шпиона

Удар по ПВО в Белгородской области. На видео – результат поражения ЗРК С-300/400 на территории Белгородской области. Удар нанесен с применением РСЗО «HIMARS». Предварительно, без потерь среди личного состава. 01-02.06.2024 @dosye_shpiona

t.me

More reports of the Ukrainian troops not receiving adequate, if any, training. As I proposed earlier, those serving away from and now sent to the front line have not been trained for such duties. Mobilization of old and those in poor health appears to be ongoing.

Wherever the new soldiers come from, Ukrainian field commanders said that because training is so deficient, they must often devote weeks to teaching them basic skills, such as how to shoot.

“We had guys that didn’t even know how to disassemble and assemble a gun,” said a 28-year-old deputy battalion commander from the 93d Mechanized Brigade[…]

“We are just wasting a lot of time here on basic training,” Schmidt said, adding: “If, God forbid, there will be a breakthrough near Chasiv Yar, and we get new infantry that doesn’t know basic things, they will be sent there to just die.”[…]

To get more troops to the battlefield immediately, Zelensky’s recently appointed military chief, Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, has redeployed people who were previously serving in jobs such as guarding bridges and other infrastructure far from the combat zone to brigades engaged in some of the fiercest fighting.

The move was designed in part to reduce the number of men who would have to be drafted — an issue that is politically fraught for Zelensky. Syrsky’s predecessor, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, had proposed drafting close to 500,000 people — a figure Zelensky publicly rejected by saying he had not been shown evidence that it was necessary and that Ukraine would struggle financially to pay so many new soldiers’ salaries.[…]

For front-line commanders, any new troops are welcome, given that some units have endured months without reinforcements. But many of these redeployed arrivals appear ill-prepared, commanders said, despite many having served in the military since the start of Russia’s invasion more than two years ago, albeit far from the battlefield.[…]

An officer who has spent more than a year instructing new soldiers at one of Ukraine’s facilities said the training centers are low on Soviet-caliber ammunition because it is being saved for troops on the battlefield. That means recruits get little experience firing live rounds. The officer said the training center received just 20 bullets per person.[…]

The chief sergeant for a battalion fighting in the eastern Donetsk region described a process in which certain brigades, particularly assault brigades, often get first pick of new soldiers brought to training centers.
The sergeant, who is typically sent to training centers to select troops for his battalion, spoke on the condition of anonymity to be candid and because he was not authorized to discuss the sensitive matter publicly.

Some assault brigades might devote personnel to live practically full-time near training centers, the sergeant said, to quickly snatch up the youngest, fittest, most motivated men. The officer who was an instructor at a training center confirmed that some brigades indeed plot for first dibs.

“If they send us to recruit someone, all the good ones have already been taken by other brigades, and you have to choose from the crooked, lame, sick ones,” the sergeant said. “And so you choose from them, dammit.”

The sergeant said that he aims to communicate with soldiers to get a sense for who is more willing to fight versus those who were conscripted forcibly and might refuse orders on the battlefield. This is expected to become an issue of heightened importance, as most Ukrainians eager to serve have already volunteered to do so. Those who have not yet volunteered tend to be resistant to fighting.

Some recruits, the sergeant said, are deemed physically fit despite being over age 50 with knee and back issues, meaning they will struggle to walk miles with a pack of gear and weapons, as is often required. Some brigades are ordered to take those men anyway.

“There are guys whom you just look in the eye and understand he’s hesitating,” the sergeant said. “He needs a push. He needs confidence in his weapon, confidence that we won’t abandon him, and he will fight.”

“And there are those who immediately say, ‘I won’t fight,’” he added. “Of course, you try not to take them. But again, in our army, it’s set up so that the personnel department tells you, ‘No way, you have to take him, he’s healthy.’”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/02/ukraine-training-soldiers-mobilization-war/

Ukraine is taking heavy losses in the Kharkiv region.

Denys Yaroslavsky, commander of a reconnaissance battalion in Ukraine’s 57th Brigade, entered the border town of Vovchansk on May 2, accompanied by four battalions of exhausted troops. Fresh from the battlefield in a different northeastern city, they soon realized their new positions were the first line of defense — and that only 200 troops were already stationed in the town.

When Russian forces pushed in just over a week later, he said, “we lost almost the entire battalion.”[…]

Yaroslavsky and his reconnaissance battalion were hunkered down in Vovchansk just hoping to survive. That day, he said, his troops weathered an “insane” number of glide bomb strikes — more than 40 in 24 hours.[…]

Kozhemyako, the founder of Khartia, also said his troops had suffered punishing hits as Washington deliberated the policy shift. Over the past 20 days, he said, they have come under 250 glide bomb strikes, attacks so powerful that even those who are not badly wounded or killed are often traumatized and concussed by the shock waves. After the airstrikes, Russian ground troops then storm their positions, he said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/06/01/us-ukraine-weapons-kharkiv-biden/

Reports in Russian media suggest that there are also alleged cases of previously wounded and now handicapped being sent back to the battlefield (via Google translate):

A resident of Volgograd with a disability was forcibly taken to the airport to be sent to the special military operation zone (SVO). This was stated by the sister of the serviceman V1.ru.

According to the Russian woman, her brother was wounded in the SVO zone, after which he was assigned a disability of the third group. A man cannot return to the combat zone for health reasons, the woman said.

Despite this, a criminal case on desertion was opened against the Volgograd man, the interlocutor of the publication continued. Upon the arrival of the fighter in the military unit to clarify the situation, according to his sister, he was "twisted and sent directly to the airport." The soldier told a relative that a detachment of "such as him" is being formed in the Rostov region. Whether the participants of the SVO with disabilities were meant is not specified in the note.

Now the man is at the disposal of the unit. There was no response to the request sent by journalists to the press service of the Southern Military District.

Бойца СВО с инвалидностью силой вернули в часть для продолжения службы

Жителя Волгограда с инвалидностью силой вывезли в аэропорт для отправки в зону специальной военной операции (СВО). Об этом заявила сестра военнослужащего V1.ru

m.lenta.ru

Zelensky stated that the Hamas attack on Israel and war in Gaza should not be mixed together:

He said that the conflict should not be seen as a single issue.

In the early days of the conflict, Ukraine had said Israel had the right to defend itself in the context of Hamas's terror attacks against Israeli civilians, and that was a specific case.

After that, when Israel launched a military offensive into Gaza, and there was a humanitarian crisis, Ukraine had said that it was ready to lend humanitarian help to Gaza and that there is a need to respect international laws.

Finally Zelensky said that Ukraine recognised two states, Israel and Palestine. Ukraine recognised Palestine while it was still part of the former Soviet bloc in 1988.

He added that Ukraine was willing to do everything to help Israel stop the conflict, so that civilians did not suffer.

He urged that the two periods, the Hamas attack and the current invasion of Gaza should not be mixed into a single one.

President Zelensky says Ukraine ready to help humanitarian efforts in Gaza & international laws need to be respected

He also said that Ukraine recognised both Israel and Palestine as states.

mothership.sg

 

[Fredled]

Another Russian S300/400 battery hit,
this time by HIMARS in the Belgorod region.

The first instance of a result of the ban lift. IMO, Ukrainian and American "observers" or "instructors" present in Ukraine still talk together about which target to strike in Russia.

I wonder if the S300/400 battery was used as air defense (as Ukrinform suggests. This is what they say.) or for surface to surface attacks?

It’s kind of funny because of the persistent reports about greatly decreased accuracy of HIMARS due to EW.

It's mostly GPS interference. Solely GPS guided missiles would miss their targets because of this interference. Some types of missile have several navigation devices beside GPS. (I don;t know about HIMARS missiles specificaly. But Stormshadows have them). Also the GPS software or hardware can be adapted to counter or reduce the effect of interferences. It's a cat and mouse technology race.

More reports of the Ukrainian troops not receiving adequate, if any, training.

I believe this is the case. But don't believe that it's all new recruits. The number of recruits trained by western allies is growing at the same time. And they have a plan to train them in Ukraine now. I think the poorly trained and low motivated recruits are the "non-professionals".

Blast at Russian ammo depot in Belgorod region leaves seven soldiers injured

As per tentative reports, the blast was caused by careless ammunition handling

I wonder if it's once again, a joke about smoking being bad for russian soldier's health (a way to say that Ukrainians did it) or if it's true...
_____________
Swiss Peace Summit's Saga:
Zelensky arrived unannounced at the Asian Peace Conference Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.
This, IMO, caught Chinese off guard. And the Chinese delegation refused to meet him. Maybe because the Chinese didn't know he was coming...?
Nonetheless Zelensky is angry at China for not meeting him and not attending the Swiss conference:

Regrettably, Russia, using Chinese influence on the region, using Chinese diplomats also, does everything to disrupt the peace summit. It is unfortunate that such a big, independent, powerful country as China is an instrument in the hands of Putin

It's funny beecause pundits usualy believe that it's Russia which became an instrument of China.

US: Kamala Harris will represent the US at the Swiss summit.

 

[KipPotapych]

The first instance of a result of the ban lift. IMO, Ukrainian and American "observers" or "instructors" present in Ukraine still talk together about which target to strike in Russia.

I wonder if the S300/400 battery was used as air defense (as Ukrinform suggests. This is what they say.) or for surface to surface attacks?

I have little doubt that it works the same with these strikes as it does with others and as it was outlined by a Washington Post (or NYT?) article I cited here a while ago: basically, the “go ahead” and coordinates are provided/adjusted by the Americans.

From other reports I saw, these were air defense units involved in protecting Belgorod.

It's mostly GPS interference. Solely GPS guided missiles would miss their targets because of this interference. Some types of missile have several navigation devices beside GPS. (I don;t know about HIMARS missiles specificaly. But Stormshadows have them). Also the GPS software or hardware can be adapted to counter or reduce the effect of interferences. It's a cat and mouse technology race.

It depends what they used for the strike. Various munitions are affected to a different degree. Reports indicate that GLSDB, for example, is no longer used by the Ukrainians because they no longer can hit their targets in something like 90-95% of the time.

The GLSDB, a precision munition with a longer range than the Excalibur, produced jointly by Boeing and the Swedish company Saab, has also been hampered by Russian electronic warfare, according to the second military report.

Ukrainian troops have ceased deploying the GLSDB on the battlefield, according to Andrew Zagorodnyuk, head of the Center for Defense Strategies, a research organization in Kyiv.

Some U.S. Weapons Stymied by Russian Jamming in Ukraine

Two classified Ukrainian reports show that some U.S. precision-guided weapons are vulnerable to electronic warfare, an element in Ukraine’s recent battlefield setbacks.

www.nytimes.com

There are similar reports about the Excalibur shells and that the preference is now given to the “dumb” artillery munitions (from the same article):

The American M777 howitzers used by Musician’s crew were praised for their capabilities when they were first introduced into the Ukrainian theater in 2022. But Musician said his unit had stopped using Excalibur shells at the beginning of 2023 because of their ineffectiveness.

Instead, he said, they were firing unguided artillery shells, which are less accurate and require greater quantities of ammunition to take out a target.

As related to HIMARS in particular, there are no specific reports that were corroborated by the western sources to any specifics and technicalities, but the Ukes suggested numerous times now that they have had problems hitting the targets. Sometimes observing every single projectile missing the targets. Some munitions were more accurate than others. But they even requested “dumb” cluster munitions for HIMARS as well because they can still inflict damage even if they are not exactly on target:

The Ukrainian military documents did not assess guided M30 or M31 munitions, which are fired from HIMARS launchers. But in January, Ukraine’s military command wrote a policy paper urging Western supporters to provide an alternative: M26 cluster munitions that also could be launched from multiple-launch rocket systems. These low-tech, unguided rockets are resistant to jamming, and the cluster submunitions can still hit targets in a wide area even if the shot is imprecise.

Kyiv still considers its HIMARS rockets effective, but Russian jamming can cause them to miss a target by 50 feet or more.

But again, it depends what they used to hit them with. GBUs, for example, are still very effective and hit their targets 90% of the time. JDAMS, on the other hand, miss their targets from 20 to 400 meters (!). I believe this Kiev Post article outlines the issues cited in NYT and WP above and its free to read (but I only skipped through it very quickly):

Analysis: Off Target – Are Kyiv’s GPS-Aided Weapons Susceptible to Kremlin EW Jamming?

Western media, citing classified Ukrainian reports, said US-made Excalibur artillery rounds and other GPS-aided munitions are now ineffective due to Russian jamming. But there’s more to the story.

www.kyivpost.com

I believe this is the case. But don't believe that it's all new recruits. The number of recruits trained by western allies is growing at the same time.

Is there even still en masse training of the UA troops by the west as there was last year?

I think the poorly trained and low motivated recruits are the "non-professionals".

Define non-professionals vs professionals. I don’t believe any of the newly recruited soldiers are professionals. That would be by definition, actually.

Swiss Peace Summit's Saga:
Zelensky arrived unannounced at the Asian Peace Conference Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.
This, IMO, caught Chinese off guard. And the Chinese delegation refused to meet him. Maybe because the Chinese didn't know he was coming...?
Nonetheless Zelensky is angry at China for not meeting him and not attending the Swiss conference:

It's funny beecause pundits usualy believe that it's Russia which became an instrument of China.

The guy is nuts. Not saying he is wrong here though because I don’t have anything of substance to suggest one way or the other.

Kazakhstan responded to the interview I cited earlier to the Kazakh media outlet (via Google translate):

Representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan Aibek Smadiyarov said at a briefing that Kazakhstan considers the idea of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to give an interview to several Central Asian media to be questionable.[…]

"As far as we know, the Ukrainian side initiated this project independently and invited representatives of a number of private media in Kazakhstan to Kiev to conduct an interview," said Aibek Smadiyarov[…]

According to Mr. Smadiyarov, the information did not pass through official diplomatic channels, and the interview itself turned out to be "more emotional than rational." "I would like to say that this whole idea with an interview seems very dubious to us... It would be much easier to address the Kazakh audience through the Ukrainian media," said the diplomat.

МИД Казахстана не понял, зачем Зеленский дал интервью «Орде»

Подробнее на сайте

www.kommersant.ru

Reports also indicate that Zelensky’s office instructed Ukrainian diplomats and staff to criticize Biden along side with Xi:

Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s frustration with Joe Biden was laid bare this week, when the Ukrainian president rebuked his US counterpart in unusually blunt terms, saying Biden’s plan to attend a Democratic fundraiser rather than Ukraine’s peace summit on June 15-16 was “not a strong decision”.

One Zelenskyy-appointed senior government official who spoke to the Financial Times about the US-Ukraine relationship said: “We are farther apart than ever since the war started. It is very, very tense.”[…]

Zelenskyy’s office this week issued a memo to officials and MPs, seen by the FT, that instructs them to criticise both Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping for not attending the summit. “If they don’t [attend], then what is their real interest?” the memo wrote.

Several Ukrainian officials said that Kyiv’s bitterness over lack of top-level US support for its peace summit initiative was just one of many points of friction with Washington and other western partners that have erupted at a particularly difficult time for Ukraine’s leadership.

Other points of concern relate to diverging strategies on how Ukraine can achieve victory and what that victory might look like, as well as Zelenskyy’s little explained removal of top government and military officials the US had worked closely with.

Several Ukrainian government officials and diplomats from G7 nations cited the firing of commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny in February and infrastructure minister Oleksandr Kubrakov this month. Both men were well respected and enjoyed close working relationships with US and EU officials. The officials told the FT that G7 ambassadors have warned Zelenskyy’s government about what they see as disruptive and inexplicable moves.

US to offer Ukraine security pact as tensions rise between allies

Agreement next month aims to placate Kyiv officials who fear relationship with Washington has hit a low

www.ft.com

 

[KipPotapych]

I wonder if the S300/400 battery was used as air defense (as Ukrinform suggests. This is what they say.) or for surface to surface attacks?

More context to this part, as I didn’t have enough time to provide any sources when making the previous post. This was a unit protecting Belgorod. There are currently rumours about another battery being hit somewhere in the area, but these are only rumours for now.

Here is a Ukrainian source stating that this was a battery protecting Belgorod:

Dnipro | OSINT з Гарбузом ✙

Це перший, але не останній удар пана хаймарса по «залізному» ППО Блядьгорода. І найближчим часом ми це побачимо, а росіяни відчують Це вам за всі збиті снаряди «Вільхи» ️Dnipro | Deployment Map

t.me

I will translate the post since it is short: “This is the first, but not last, strike of pan (Mr in Ukrainian) HIMARS on the “iron” AD of Belgorod. In the nearest future (hours?) we will see, and the Russians will feel it.
This is for all the intercepted munitions of Vilkha”

Vilkha is, of course, an MLRS (or one of) that Ukraine shells Belgorod with.

I should note, this is a decent source, not some rando on the internet (though aren’t they/we all?). Here is another post they made when the first news of the American change of heart regarding the strikes on the Russian territory broke out:

Dnipro Osint | Гарбуз

Гаразд, я думав цей процес займе значно більше часу. Сподіваюся, ми скоро побачимо обстріли Блядьгорода з хаймарса А якщо серйозно, то це дуже хороші новини, ви просто не уявляєте скільки перемог ми прогавили через це кончене обмеження ️Dnipro | Deployment Map

t.me

I will translate once more: “I am surprised, I thought this process would take a lot longer. Hopefully, we will soon see shelling of Belgorod from HIMARS.
Seriously, this is very good news because you have no idea how many victories we have missed because of these imposed limits.”

They are surprised? No doubt, haha:

Over 90 minutes, the Ukrainians made a pressing case to be able to use U.S. weapons to fire back over the border into Russia to prevent their city from being overrun.[…]

After the videoconference, the three U.S. officials agreed that the Ukrainians’ appeal made sense and that a recommendation should be put to Biden.

This is from the second Washington Post article I cited three posts above. But anyway…

I am also not sure how this lines up with the reported lift of limitations. This is an example of what has been generally reported on this development:

Biden’s directive allows for U.S.-supplied weapons to be used for “counterfire purposes in the Kharkiv region so Ukraine can hit back against Russian forces that are attacking them or preparing to attack them,” one official said.

Biden partially lifts ban on Ukraine using US arms in strikes on Russian territory, US officials say

President Joe Biden has given Ukraine the go-ahead to use American weaponry to strike inside Russia for the limited purpose of defending Ukraine's second-largest city, Kharkiv.

apnews.com

Of course, there is probably a lot more going on than what is being reported. The most concerning part, in my opinion, is that there is a general consensus that all restrictions will be lifted rather sooner than later. Or, more importantly, the choice of words by the top US officials. For example:

“Going forward, we’ll continue to do what we’ve been doing, which is: As necessary, adapt and adjust,” Mr. Blinken said at a news conference in Prague at the end of a two-day meeting of top diplomats from member nations of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Mr. Blinken was responding to a reporter’s question on whether the United States might give permission for Ukraine to use U.S.-made weapons to strike deeper into Russia.

Blinken Hints U.S. May Allow Ukraine Greater Latitude to Strike in Russia

The U.S. secretary of state suggested that Ukraine’s use of American-supplied arms could expand beyond the current limitation to strikes in the Kharkiv area.

www.nytimes.com

There were also words of “testing limits”, etc. Getting into a territory of crazy here a little bit. I would guess many here are completely fine with this development, I am not so much. While the current reported restrictions make sense (Ukrainians have been doing it anyway, but now have a wider choice of weapons to do it with), further extension would be pretty crazy (not as if there wasn’t any luck of it as it is). I will make another post on the subject when time permits.

So what is Russia going to do? They surely must respond to it (the current escalation). It would be dumb for them not, wouldn’t it? I am assuming the first thing we shall see in the near future is shooting down of unmanned recon assets above the Black Sea (and elsewhere?), such as Reapers and Hawks, for example. This is just a common sense least thing to do for the clear “feedback” purposes (I am honestly surprised that hasn’t happened yet, a while ago). Perhaps, a clear warning of intent to intercept other aircraft in the area. What else of significance? They can probably open another front in Sumy, but that is probably coming if it is to come regardless, so to speak. Anyway, I am out of time, but will try to come back to this subject at a later time. Anyone cares to express their thoughts?

Edit: An interesting “pattern” that I have noticed in the past few months. I make a post here, cite an article, etc, then see the same article cited in the RU internet space the next day or so (though my and their ideas and points often differ). Here I posted the above about the Rippers and Hawks and then shortly after there is a post by Fighterbomber suggesting that they should bring them down “by packs” and such a decision might come in the nearest future, lol.

Fighterbomber

Насчёт разрешения ронять в результате "непрофессиональных и необдуманых действий" супостатские Риперы и Хоки могу сказать следующее. "Ошибаться можно. Пиздеть нельзя". Но как я неоднократно и писал и говорил. Никаких ограничений и последствий валить их пачками лично я не вижу. И вполне...

t.me

I should probably contact him for the sources in order to get my share of remuneration.

 

[Fredled]

[size=x-small]criminal psychopath[/size]

Is there even still en masse training of the UA troops by the west as there was last year?

Yes. The numbers for 2024 are higher than for 2023, for the few allied countries I read about. I forgot the exact number, but it's in the tens of thousands.
Anyway, still a far cry of what they need to push Russian away.

If I see something again about this topic, I will post it here.
There are also talks about training soldiers inside Ukraine instead of moving them oversea. But as the saying goes, when they announce something it means that they have been doing it already.

Define non-professionals vs professionals.

I used the term as a way to speak. Not the sens of career military personnel, but people with professional level training.

Reports also indicate that Zelensky’s office instructed Ukrainian diplomats and staff to criticize Biden along side with Xi:

Zelensky has been almost offended that Joe Biden won't attend. But he forgot that the US president is not as young as him anymore. And on top of that, during an election campaign he has to be present in America more than abroad.

Since, they announced Kamala Harris at the summit. Which is second highest level.

The most concerning part, in my opinion, is that there is a general consensus that all restrictions will be lifted rather sooner than later.

AFAIK, countries lifting restrictions lifted all restrictions. Only the US made an exception for ATACMS. Stromshadows and Scalps can hit Russia, so everything lower than that also can.
I doesn't change much because it allows them to hit targets only 100 miles beyond the border with the Stormshadows. And only 40 miles with HIMARS. No big deal.

With F16's, some country didn;t limit their use, others did. They could theatrically penetrate deeper into Russian territory but it would be suicide.

So what is Russia going to do? They surely must respond to it (the current escalation).

The opinion of many pundits, and my opinion too, is that Russia doesn't have much room for escalation since they are already attacking Ukraine with all their means at their disposal.

My fear is that they fire missiles at a NATO country. That's the only way they could respond. But that would be counter productive. NATO would only speed up their weapon production. Not talking about how NATO could retaliate. I don't think Putin wants NATO to actively join the war.

Of course there is the fear that Russians would respond with nukes, either on Ukraine or on Europe. But this is unlikely because, I think, Putin can't take this decision alone. but the risk actually has never been higher.

the first thing we shall see in the near future is shooting down of unmanned recon assets above the Black Sea (and elsewhere?), such as Reapers and Hawks, for example.

I don't think they are able to do that because NATO/US planes, manned and unmanned are not going close enough to Russians lines. And Russians won't risk their aircraft far on the west side of the Black Sea, flying close or over NATO member's national waters or close to Ukrainian AD.
I think that if they had a chance to down an US drone, they would have done it already.

An interesting “pattern” that I have noticed in the past few months. I make a post here, cite an article, etc, then see the same article cited in the RU internet space the next day or so

It means you are the top source! LOL.

For me it's less funny because it means that "they" read this forum and I must be careful of what I write. For example, I shouldn't write too often, and preferably not in bold letters, that Putin is a criminal psychopath..
I think they have already identified me as a foreign agent anyway. As I'm not a famous person or a civil or a military servant, they probably don't pay too much attention to me. But I wouldn't be surprised that my name already figure on one of their list among thousands of others.

 

[Feanor]

I don't think they are able to do that because NATO/US planes, manned and unmanned are not going close enough to Russians lines. And Russians won't risk their aircraft far on the west side of the Black Sea, flying close or over NATO member's national waters or close to Ukrainian AD.
I think that if they had a chance to down an US drone, they would have done it already.

Western UAVs routinely enter the eastern half of the Black Sea. A simple look at map of their recon flights, and at flighttracker shows this.

 

[KipPotapych]

There are also talks about training soldiers inside Ukraine instead of moving them oversea. But as the saying goes, when they announce something it means that they have been doing it already.

I want to know what happens when Russia strikes and kills some of that training personnel (that is openly and officially in Ukraine). Do we just shrug it off and send replacement? Do we strike back? What do we do?

I used the term as a way to speak. Not the sens of career military personnel, but people with professional level training.

I don’t believe anyone is getting any professional level of training, aside, perhaps, from some specialized personnel and special forces. Even in case of the latter it is highly unlikely - at the very least, timelines surely suggest so. Those on the battlefield likely get much more valuable lessons.

AFAIK, countries lifting restrictions lifted all restrictions. Only the US made an exception for ATACMS. Stromshadows and Scalps can hit Russia, so everything lower than that also can.
I doesn't change much because it allows them to hit targets only 100 miles beyond the border with the Stormshadows. And only 40 miles with HIMARS. No big deal.

Until they receive the missiles with longer range that is. The same Storm Shadows can fly quite a bit longer than 100 miles. Even that number is low because, if I recall correctly, it was reported that the range of the missiles supplied to Ukraine is over 150 miles.

I will address the no big deal part in another post because it kind of is.

The opinion of many pundits, and my opinion too, is that Russia doesn't have much room for escalation since they are already attacking Ukraine with all their means at their disposal.

I don't think they are able to do that because NATO/US planes, manned and unmanned are not going close enough to Russians lines. And Russians won't risk their aircraft far on the west side of the Black Sea, flying close or over NATO member's national waters or close to Ukrainian AD.
I think that if they had a chance to down an US drone, they would have done it already.

There are certainly ways for them to escalate. Shooting down US drones would be one of them. Satellites is another. Sabotage in the western countries is yet one more. And so on. There are still ways to go before the nukes come into play. They can even escalate things in Ukraine to yet another level and go beyond energy infrastructure. They can simply increase the civilian casualties and suffering. At the end of the day, there is also chemical and biological warfare, to pick from a “lesser evil”. But nukes would certainly be the logical choice first. At the end of the day, they can hit a nuclear plant in Rivne, among other places, but that one in particular. There are still numerous ways they can take it up a notch before ever touching the nukes, and that goes for both, Ukraine and outside their borders. They can even strike a state that supports the Ukrainian war efforts, but is not a part of NATO. Thinking that they had reached the limit of their capabilities is definitely wrong and unproductive.

As for their abilities, yes, they certainly can shoot down the assets I mentioned. I mean they already brought one Reaper down last March (?). And that was an intercept via a direct contact with a Russian aircraft. Russians have restrained themselves from these actions otherwise (another incident involved dropping some fuel on a drone as well, if I recall correctly).

My fear is that they fire missiles at a NATO country. That's the only way they could respond. But that would be counter productive. NATO would only speed up their weapon production. Not talking about how NATO could retaliate. I don't think Putin wants NATO to actively join the war.

Of course there is the fear that Russians would respond with nukes, either on Ukraine or on Europe. But this is unlikely because, I think, Putin can't take this decision alone. but the risk actually has never been higher.

While the risk of a nuclear strike by Russia is significant (definitely higher, in my opinion, than what the “top men” are suggesting), I do not believe there is anything that can be gained by such a strike on a NATO state “out of the blue”. If they were to retaliate against a NATO state, they would first hit it with some conventional missiles and the strike would carry some significance in terms of war efforts. Then see how things play out from there. Nuclear strike is the last resort sort of thing, clearly. Conventional means would be involved first without a doubt.

One thing to consider here is that Russia so far has been responding to our continues escalation through out this war. They haven’t introduced anything new into this mess that hasn’t been there from the start (normal developments aside). Moreover, their capabilities (and perception of such, which is also important) have certainly decreased since the invasion because of their failure in planning and execution. The fact that they want to avoid a war with NATO is quite obvious.

Another thing to consider is that, in spite of disbelief of many, Russia (read Putin and Co, but it is likely the entire country - that is, a great majority) believe that they are defending themselves and have been from the beginning. Some can argue that this is not the case till their noses bleed (Biden still talks about the reconstruction of the Soviet Union, for example, which is laughable), but it is (or should be) certainly a consideration at least and a very likely reality at… well, not most, but reality, really. Hence, the tolerance for the losses, be it on the battlefield, economic sanctions, etc. So “adapt and adjust” and “testing the limits” should absolutely consider this possibility. Does it? I am not so sure and heavily leaning towards a no. This has been a complete clusterf from before it began. A defending side would go to a lot more effort to defend themselves than an offensive side trying to capture some largely meaningless dirt, in the grand scheme of things. To note, this is not a discussion of what is a perceived reality of anyone’s account, but the implications of strategic planning and consequences because they sure should encompass these possibilities. To me personally, it doesn’t look like they are.

It means you are the top source! LOL.

Lol. Simpler than that, I am afraid. As for the media references, there are only so many outlets and even less of them that are considered reliable. So we all read the same stuff; those of us who do, that is. So the articles cited all over the world are basically ones and the same, but the interpretation may differ. It is all a matter of who sees it first, I guess, and offers some thoughts for discussion or propaganda efforts, among other things. Today, for example, I saw some references in the Russian outlets to Czech initiative I talked about a few days ago. The interpretation was somewhat different from mine though.

As for the drones coming down talk coincidence, there are at least two options here: 1) great minds think alike, or 2) fools seldom differ. Haha.

In all seriousness though, I was merely attempting to make a joke: I should deserve some compensation for my time spent on spreading the Russian propaganda (as it was suggested so previously) and Fighterbomber may be able to direct me in the right direction for that. Something like this.

For me it's less funny because it means that "they" read this forum and I must be careful of what I write. For example, I shouldn't write too often, and preferably not in bold letters, that Putin is a criminal psychopath..
I think they have already identified me as a foreign agent anyway. As I'm not a famous person or a civil or a military servant, they probably don't pay too much attention to me. But I wouldn't be surprised that my name already figure on one of their list among thousands of others.

While you are underestimating their capabilities in terms of escalation as outlined above, you are certainly overestimating their capabilities and interest/involvement in you or any of us here. I wouldn’t be too concerned.

 

[vikingatespam]

I want to know what happens when Russia strikes and kills some of that training personnel (that is openly and officially in Ukraine). Do we just shrug it off and send replacement? Do we strike back? What do we do?

I would imagine those trainers in country would be treated as fair game by both sides. Any training will likely be far from the front, and only in danger of cruise missile attacks, which will have plenty of warning.

There are certainly ways for them to escalate. Shooting down US drones would be one of them. Sabotage in the western countries is yet one more. And so on.

Already done (ok, technically they didnt shoot it down...) and done.

At the end of the day, there is also chemical and biological warfare, to pick from a “lesser evil”.

On paper, Russia has disposed of its chemical warfare arms by 2017. Of course they have some Novichok lying around....

 

[Fredled]

Western UAVs routinely enter the eastern half of the Black Sea.

So, why aren't they shooting them down routinely?
IMHO, it's because they can't. Not because they don;t care, or because they don't want to escalate.

I want to know what happens when Russia strikes and kills some of that training personnel (that is openly and officially in Ukraine). Do we just shrug it off and send replacement? Do we strike back? What do we do?

We won;t do anything special. We know that Russians will target them. Maybe we will send replacements. Maybe political opposition will show outrage and ask for the cancelation of the program. Maybe we will ignore and not send replacement. Honestly I don;t know. But we won't retaliate because Ukrainians are already doing this every day.

Those on the battlefield likely get much more valuable lessons.

It happens that it's more the Ukes training the Brits and other NATO instructors than the other way.
NATO trainers can teach some good stuffs, but not the experience of the battlefield. When battle hardened soldiers go to a western country, they are sharing their experience with NATO soldiers, or at least with officers interested in hearing what they say. NATO is getting a lot of feed back from Ukrainians. The teaching goes both ways.
That's what I heard from a documentary.

if I recall correctly, it was reported that the range of the missiles supplied to Ukraine is over 150 miles.

Yes but they are not firing them right from the Russian border. When you take a safety distance into account, it's more less 100 miles.
On the global map of Russia, it's just a scratch. By no way "deep inside Russia" as we hear or read often.

There are certainly ways for them to escalate.

Yes and no. They can change their targets. But their means for a large attack, like dozens of missiles at one time, are limited. If they want to make a retaliation which will cause important damage, and have a potential political impact, to a NATO site or country, they will be forced to divert some capabilities from the Ukrainian theatre.

you are certainly overestimating their capabilities and interest/involvement in you or any of us here. I wouldn’t be too concerned.

I'm not overestimating their capabilities, and their will, to collect data on a big number of individuals. I'm very serious when I say that my name could figure on a list somewhere. But I agree that I shouldn't overestimate their interest in me because I'm not the worse pro-Ukrainian, anti-Putin meme sharing propagandist on social networks, from what I have seen.

On paper, Russia has disposed of its chemical warfare arms by 2017. Of course they have some Novichok lying around....

I don't believe that Russia has destroyed all their stocks or laboratories able to producing chemical weapons. But true chemical weapons (not the tear gaz they dropped from quadcopters over Ukrainian trenches) is for them, like nukes: means of last resort. They don't want to make bad advertising by using them. Putin still wants to show that the Special War Operation is conventional and under control.