The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
I don't think their performance is so poor. Yes, it's humanly disastrous and their losses are humiliating. But Ukrainians can't kick them out of Ukraine despite our help.
I don't think that firing 100 cruise and ballistic missiles per month, non stop. for two years and half is poor performance. Nor is their amount of shells and other projectiles they manage to fire at Ukrainian forces. Their mobilisation performance is not bad neither.

I mean, the fire power and the quantity of men and material Russians are able to activate to reach their goal is frighthening. Just a look at aerial pictures is enough to make you rearm ASAP.
The RU performance, esp. at the beginning of the war was a total shit show, such as their first performance after June 22, 1941, or even in the Winter War. From top to bottom, a more miserable performance in modern times, is hard to imagine.

Quantity is virtually the only quality the RU armed forces possess.

Yes, RU is learning and improving. Time will tell if they can leverage that into an appreciably larger slice of UKR.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The RU performance, esp. at the beginning of the war was a total shit show, such as their first performance after June 22, 1941, or even in the Winter War. From top to bottom, a more miserable performance in modern times, is hard to imagine.

Quantity is virtually the only quality the RU armed forces possess.

Yes, RU is learning and improving. Time will tell if they can leverage that into an appreciably larger slice of UKR.
Not a total. The 8th Army did one hell of a job. Raced into Kherson region knocking over Ukrainian forces, seized the crossings across the Dnepr, secured Kherson, pushed out from it, handed off the westward direction to the 20th Army, and then raced eastward, sweeping through all of southern Zaporozhye, then encircling Mariupol' and taking it in ~3 weeks. If the rest of the Russian military had performed that well, Kiev in 3 days would have been a reality. The pre-war Russian army suffered from the drastically incomplete reforms that left a small number of units operating essentially as a modern military. And so for a small war there was plenty. But for a large war they reverted to units like the 90th Tanks, which was an entire tank division without a single UAV. Even when DNR Sparta Btln used UAVs at the squad level. This is just one example. This led to highly inconsistent performance that remained an issue even in the second half of 2023. It's harder to tell now, but the failures of West MD on the Kupyansk axis are telling. Only this year did the 47th Tanks finally show itself to be worth something. And it's a new unit. The rest of West MD has been lackluster. The issue is that we haven't seen Russia complete a systematic reform of the rest of the military. Instead we see things being done in spite of rather then thanks to military organization. We see UAVs being a donation effort at the lowest level, we see improvements to tank protection evolving from field improvisations, we see adaption from the personnel but organizational issues persist. For two years Ukraine has been able to hit Russian airfields with a little planning and a little luck. Not one hardened air shelter has been built. Until just recently not even one covered hangar. Some were built recently, on donated funds, at one airfield. It remains to be seen if the current shakeup changes anything, and the Russian military certainly has accumulated a lot of experience in fighting in a certain kind of environment.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kharkov front.

I believe earlier reports about Russia taking all of Volchansk north of the river are incorrect. Only some sources have reported it and many Russian sources did not. Suriyak has since walked that back, stating a Ukrainian counter-attack, but I think the reality is Russia never quite held the area. There is a solid though small Ukrainian perimeter north of the river. Russian forces are still gaining some ground here, but very slowly.


Near Liptsy Ukrainian reinforcements have pushed Russian forces back in the hills north of town.


A view of Volchansk. Large sections of the town are turning into ruins and if the fighting continues, it will be all of it.


Russia continues to hit bridges in and around Volchansk, canalizing Ukrainian movements.


Ukrainian police car getting hit by an FPV drone near Volchansk.


Allegedly a Ukrainian D-30 getting hit in Kharkov region by a Russian loitering munition. Note there's something concealed there, but I can't make out what, and we have no secondary explosions.


Russian loitering munitions hits a Ukrainian something, allegedly a tank. Here we clearly have secondaries, and quite a fire.


Ukrainian Grad hit near Kharkov. Note the explosion.


Allegedly an AN/TPQ-49 hit in Kharkov region.


Ukrainian SP howitzer while being transported on a trailer near Lozovaya, gets hit by a Russian loitering munition. Allegedly it's a 2S1.


Russia has begun using 2S4 super-heavy mortars, and TOS thermobarics near Volchansk. I believe the TOS is the rare new TOS-2.


A destroyed Ukrainian T-64BV with mine trawl.


A Ukrainian 2S1 hit by a Russian loitering munition.


There are reports of a downed Ukrainian jet near Volchansk.


Ukrainain SoF 8th Regiment have shown up near Liptsi.


New Russian D-30SN gliding munitions being used by Su-34s near Kharkov.


We have an obituary of a Ukrainian officer cropping up after the recent Russian strike on the 302nd Air Defense Bde HQ. It appears the pre-war facility was still being used by the very same unit during the war.


More Ukrainian POWs from the Kharkov area.


We have a captured Roshel Senator from Volchansk area.


Russia hit the Kharkov rail depot. Given the size of the city, it's likely the rail lines play a role in movement of reserves and supplies, but Russian efforts against them have been lackluster.


Russia hit the Epicenter shopping mall in Kharkov. Subsequent secondary detonations arguably suggest munitions were being stored there. It's not the first shopping mall used this way by Ukrainian forces. Warning footage of corpses.


Ukrainian random strikes on Belgorod region continue.


Battlegroup North T-80BVMs heading to the front.


Russian up-armored Ural somewhere in the Kharkov front.


Oskol front.

Russian forces, after taking Kislovka and Kotlyarovka, have now taken Berestovoe and Ivanovka. After the lackluster performance of West MD in their autumn push towards Kupyansk, the 47th Tanks have captured village after village in this area. Of course going all the way to Kupyansk from this area will take quite some time. Russia has also expanded their area of control around the Kislovka-Kotlyarovka area.


Russia has also made small gains towards Stel'makhovka.


Ukrainian counter-attacks continue to bite off pieces of the Russian salient towards Torskoe.


Ukrainian tank gets hit by a Lancet strike, Kupyansk area. You can see the crew bail out afterwards. The tank is clearly not destroyed, but immobilized vehicles tend to get finished off by additional strikes. I think it's a T-72 based on the ERA layout.


Allegedly Ukrainian tank burns on the Krasniy Liman axis.


Seversk.

Ukrainian forces have recaptured some ground north-east of Belogorovka. This comes even as Russian forces have taken most of Belogorovka itself. Of course this isn't that significant, the village is basically flattened. It's the refuse mounds south of it that Russia needs to take.


Russian forces have made gains north-ward east of the rail line runnig along a highground, and this push threatend to turn the entire Spornoe area into a salient for Ukraine. Russian forces have also grabbed some positions north of Veseloe, towards Razdolovka.


A Russian ODAB-1500 dropped on Seversk.


Chasov Yar.

Russian forces have taken most of Klescheevka, a bit of the southern part remains contested, but the main strong point in the northern and north-western hills is under Russian control. This looks to me like an organized Ukrainian withdrawal, rather then a Russian offensive, tied to the advances in and around Chasov Yar. Russian forces also now hold Andreevka, or the ruins thereof.


In Chasov Yar Russian forces have grabbed about a third of the Canal neighborhood and are holding it despite Ukrainian counter-attacks. Meanwhile north of the town, Russian forces have advanced inside of Kalinina.


A view of the ruins of Chasov Yar. The town is being destroyed by the continuing fighting. I believe this is a view of the canal neighborhood we've been talking about.


Ukrainian BMP-2 and MT-LB destroyed near Chasov Yar.


A Russian T-90M with a new anti-drone armor layout, near Chasov Yar.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ocheretino-Netaylovo.

I'm not going to refer to Avdeevka when talking about this area anymore because it's far enough in the rear to not be a useful reference. Russia forces, after securing all of Netaylovo, have also secured areas south and north of the village.


West of Avdeevka Russian forces have taken a buffer zone north and south-west of Umanskoe and gained some ground west of Berdychy-Semnovka. West and south-west of Ocheretino Russia has also made small gains, but remains mostly stalled in front of Sokol and Novoaleksandrovka.


A knocked out Bradley crew gets evacuated.


Ukrainian Bradley hit near Sokol.


Ukrainian MaxxPro getting hit by a Russian FPV drone with thermals.


No1 but 2 more M1s getting hit. Their survivability is clearly insufficient, removing their more advanced armor has possibly had a significant impact.


Ukrainian BMP-2 getting hit in the Avdeevka area.


An M1 earlier hit, now captured by advancing Russian forces.


Novomihailovka-Krasnogorovka area.

In Krasnogorovka Russian forces have captured the western outskirts, but the northern side of town remains in Ukrainian hands.


Russian forces have gained some ground insinde Paraskovievka, and also north and south of Novomihailovka.


Another Leo-2A4 getting hit near Mar'inka.


A Bradley allegedly getting hit near Krasnogorovka. If this is accurate, this is our first sighting of these IFVs outside of the Avdeevka area in a long time.


Russian counter-battery fires from a 2S5 hit a towed gun of some sort, allegedly an M777, near Ugledar.


2 Ukrainian POWs from an assault team in Krasnogorovka. I believe this is indirect evidence of Ukrainian counter-attacks here, possibly explaining why Russia hasn't been able to advance in the town.


Zaporozhye front.


Russian forces continue to chip away at the Rabotino salient.


In the Vremyevskiy bulge area Russian forces have retaken most of Staromayorskoe, and are advancing east and west of the Mokrie Yaly river valley.


A Russian missile strike takes out a bridge across the Mokrie Yaly river, between Vermyevka and Velikaya Novoselka.


Russian missiles being lobbed toward Ukrainian positions in the Vremyevskiy bulge area.


Ukrainian artillery, allegedly M777, getting hit near Gulyaypole. We can see the crew active around it.


Ukrainian M113 knocked out in Urozhaynoe.


Russia has captured some Ukrainian POWs in Zaporozhye. I believe this is the Rabotino salient, since the 19th Motor-Rifles are involved.


Crimea and the Black Sea.

In a recent Ukrainian attack, a Ukrainian unmanned boat fired Grad munitions towards the Kinburn peninsula. The 2-5th links have a good look at these boats.


Russian helos hunting Ukrainian drones at sea.


Strikes.

Russia hit the Aviatorskoe airfield, hitting a Ukrainian MiG-29. The jet may have been out of service for some time (since the April 18th strike), but was used previously during this war. We can see a secondary detonation suggesting fuel or munitions. Reportedly an Iskander was used.


Ukrainian Burun tug boat getting hit on the Dnepr.


Ukrainian MR-18 radar hit in Sumy region.


Ukrainian Bogdana 2S22 howtizer hit in Sumy region.


4 Russian LMURs hit a Ukrainian crossing (it says pontoon but it looks like a mechanized bridge) and vehicles.


Russia hit the Zaporozhye airport. Reasons are unclear.


Rolling blackouts continue in Ukraine. The damage to Ukraine's generation has had a significant impact, moreso then previous Russian strikes against mainly transformers and the distribution grid.


It appears that in response to Ukrainian strikes Russia is setting up decoy jets at airfields. Anything not to bother with building proper hardened sheltesr I guess...


Ukraine has struck Lugansk again, target is not immediately clear. Reportedly impacts were on the old navigators school, but it's not clear what the facilities are being used for now.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Other interesting bits.

In Kherson region Ukrainian forces have moved out of the Krynki area, moving southward. Parts of the immediate coastline here are not under Russian control due to the poor terrain. Russian forces tend to be some distance inland. The foothold here is likely just as unhelpful as inside Krynki itself.


A Russian soldier downs an FPV drone with a shotgun, head-on. This is very risky, since if he misses, it will hit him.


An old Russian Grad-1 MLRS in the 85th Motor-rifles.


Ukrainian sources published the photo of a new Russian drone that appears similar to the Italmas drone shown previously by Russian sources.


A Russian Ka-52 launching a Kh-39 missile. This might be a Ka-52M, prior to this the munition hadn't been used by the type.


A crashed Mohajer-6, with munitions on it, in Kursk region.


Another Russian BMP-2 with extra armor.


A T-72A turning into a hangar, and another "naked" T-72A with cages being added.. There have been more instances of early version T-72s without ERA showing up, but so far they seem to be a minority not only compared to their newer variants, but even compared to the older T-62M.


Russian BTR-82A with impressive camouflage and anti-drone screens.


Russian D-30 with a roof-cage.


Russia's improvised depth-charge MLRS remains in service.


A now rare Russian Shturm-S self-propelled ATGM carrier with anti-drone screens. Pre-war every Russian brigade and regiment typically have a battery or in some cases even btln of "anti-tank artillery" most frequently represented by Shturm-S ATGM carriers, though in rare cases by newer Khrizantema or Konkurs-P systems, or older Konkurs on BRDM-2 chassis.


A scarce Russian Tayfun-VDV MRAP with it's 30mm autocannon in the war zone.


We have a sighting of "caged" Abrams. The 4-5ths link even have one with ERA and a roof cage. Painful lessons learned from losing many of these relatively tanks. This is of course the 47th Mech Bde.


Ukrainian Su-27 carrying 2 SDBs on a pylon and MiG-29AS carrying 5 SDBs.


Ukrainian Su-24MR carrying a recon pod. Despite their age, Ukraine continues to make the best of their meager airforce.


Ukrainian soldiers posing with their FrankenSAM.


Ukrainian AIFV-B-C25 with logs as armor.


Ukraine's 3rd Assault Bde shows a LuAZ-967M, an old Soviet equivalent of the Chinese Desertcross that Russia uses.


Reportedly Ukraine got its 4th Iris-T from Germany.


Indian and Pakistani shells in Ukrainian service.


There are reports that French instructors will be heading to Ukraine after all.


Reportedly Ukraine is borrowing a page from Russia's playbook and is recruiting prisoners to fight in the war.


A look at Russian road construction in the Azov sea area.

 

Fredled

Active Member
Sweden will donate one ASC 890 Airborne Surveillance and Control aircraft
It will help missions flown by F16's.
_____________________
Ukraine confirms ATACMS strike on Kerch ferry crossing


On the other side of the strait:
Ukraine strikes a ferry crossing and an oil terminal at Port Kavkaz with Neptunes
(No picture yet)
Second wave of explosions at Port Kavkaz.
It's an interesting development because it will further reduce transportation from mainland Russia to Crimea. And it's probably not the last of such strikes.
Note that Ukrainians say they used their own Neptune missiles to strike the Russian side of the strait while openly confirming the use of ATACMS on the Crimean side.
Joe Biden has given Ukraine flexibility to strike military targets not far inside Russia with US wepaons but not with ATACMS.
___________________

It's official: China will not attend the Ukraine peace conference in Switzerland (Reuters).
It's a big diplomatic defeat for Zelensky. But it also makes things clear who is with who. And it's unfortunate.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said:
China has always insisted that an international peace conference should be endorsed by both Russia and Ukraine, with the equal participation of all parties, and that all peace proposals should be discussed in a fair and equal manner. Otherwise it will be difficult for it to play a substantive role in restoring peace.
It's not a valid reason. The goal of the conference is to discuss a proposal that will be given to Russia to consider peace talks. This proposal will be drafted or signed by participating countries. But obviousely, Russia can't take part in discussion about a proposal to themselves.

Insisting on the presence of Russia means that China wants to change the goal of the summit and defend Russia's position. China is not interested in making reasonable proposals to Russia to stop the war.

Putin said:
Ukraine may use the Swiss talks to try to get a broader group of countries to back Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's demand for a total Russian withdrawal.
Of course. It has always been the goal for Zelensky. And, in theory, that's what Russia should do to return to legality. Putin forgets that the presence of his soldiers in Ukraine is illegal and the reason for the war.
However, we should expect the proposal to be some sort of 50/50 deal to have a chance to be contemplated by Putin.
___________________

Ukraine pays from 100 to 200 thousand euros per month for violations of human rights (as I understand in the penitenciary system) according to the decisions of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR).
___________________
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It's official: China will not attend the Ukraine peace conference in Switzerland (Reuters).
It's a big diplomatic defeat for Zelensky. But it also makes things clear who is with who. And it's unfortunate.

It's not a valid reason. The goal of the conference is to discuss a proposal that will be given to Russia to consider peace talks. This proposal will be drafted or signed by participating countries. But obviousely, Russia can't take part in discussion about a proposal to themselves.

Insisting on the presence of Russia means that China wants to change the goal of the summit and defend Russia's position. China is not interested in making reasonable proposals to Russia to stop the war.


Of course. It has always been the goal for Zelensky. And, in theory, that's what Russia should do to return to legality. Putin forgets that the presence of his soldiers in Ukraine is illegal and the reason for the war.
However, we should expect the proposal to be some sort of 50/50 deal to have a chance to be contemplated by Putin.
I think Ukraine realizes if they negotiate with Russia, they have very little leverage to get anything other by surrendering territory, and they hope to leverage the implied pressure through the support of many countries to improve their bargaining position. I think the offer won't be very good, will involve a demand for the return of most of the territory Russia has taken, with some discussion around the future of the LDNR and recognition of Russian claims to Crimea. I suspect Russia will reject the offer outright. I don't think anything resembling a 50/50 deal will be offered.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
I suspect Russia will reject the offer outright. I don't think anything resembling a 50/50 deal will be offered.
It's hard to say what a reasonable 50/50 deal would be. For both Zelensky and Putin such a thing is impossible.
But I agree that there is high chances that Russia rejects it outright and that they already decided to reject it no matter its content. (Putin will say that a deal proposed without China is not worth considering.)

But he will at least know what's the basis for starting negotiation commonly accepted by The West, India and a few other countries (if the latters agree on the text).
I made a search on what was the decision of India and found this, as the most recent information:
India's PM confirms India will participate in Peace Summit in Switzerland
It's not known at which level. As I understand it's unlikely that Modi would come in person. But there is a wide range of diplomacy levels available.

Feanor said:
There are reports that French instructors will be heading to Ukraine after all.
It's a very active debate topic in France. In fact, it will be only an increase of the number of instructors already there.

Lithuania also joins the initiative:
Foreign Ministry of Lithuania Gabrielius Landsbergis said:
We have French initiative, you know, for training or sending troops to Ukraine. Again, Lithuania clearly indicates that we are ready. And then it's German, and then again, we indicate that we are ready to join with our radar systems that we are going to add are going to complement the equipment that's being sent by Germany to Ukraine
(Germany also said something, it seems, but I don't know what.)

Feanor said:
An old Russian Grad-1 MLRS in the 85th Motor-rifles.
Is realy very old, like from the 50's, or it just looks old?

Feanor said:
It appears that in response to Ukrainian strikes Russia is setting up decoy jets at airfields. Anything not to bother with building proper hardened sheltesr I guess...
I have read somwhere that some "NATO" missiles are able to make a difference between a real target and a decoy. (But I con't find information about that right now.)

Feanor said:
Rolling blackouts continue in Ukraine. The damage to Ukraine's generation has had a significant impact, moreso then previous Russian strikes against mainly transformers and the distribution grid.
It seems that their last waves, starting one and half months ago, had a lasting effect.

Feanor said:
Russian helos hunting Ukrainian drones at sea.
The same scene filmed by the drone in question
Very impressive explosion and demonstration of fire power directed at other drones in the second part of the video. (IMO, it's a montage of two separate events.)
_______________________

Ukraine claims to have destroyed a Nebo-SVU long-range radar in Armiansk
______________________

Use of Western weapons on Russian territory:

Germany allows Ukraine to use German weapons against targets inside Russia
German government said:
Together we are convinced that Ukraine has the right under international law to defend itself against these attacks. For this, it can also use the weapons delivered for that purpose in accordance with its international legal commitments, including the ones delivered by us
France gives a diplomatic permission. <== Link in french but I will translate:
French Minister for the Armies Sébastien Lecornu said:
According to War Laws, an agressed country can strike in retaliation, centers of military agression against its territory. This "diplomatic permission" is only tha application of the law.
A country in legitimate defence canuse wepaons delivered by other countries. We give weapons to a country to defend itself.
It's Russia which changes their way to make war, and notably, by relocating behind thier borders. Therefore, it's also Russia which has taken the risk of being hit in its own territory. Don't reverse the roles.
US:
Antony Blinken said:
Over the past few weeks, Ukraine came to us and asked for authorization to use the weapons that we are providing to defend against this aggression, including against Russian forces that are amassing on the Russian side of the border and then attacking into Ukraine. That went right to the president, and as you've heard, he's approved the use of our weapons for that purpose.
We want to make sure that we are proceeding deliberately as well as effectively.
Lithuania:
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania Gabrielius Landsbergis said:
if Russia moves military assets to another location, then "the choice of targets should also be moved.
mean Ukraine must have the ability to defend itself. If Russia, fearing that (military - ed.) targets may be attacked in Russia, moves them somewhere else, then I think that the choice of targets should also be moved.
The European Union does not comment but...
EU spokesman Peter Stano said:
"It is not our place to comment on the remarks of NATO Secretary General or NATO members. We had a similar discussion in the EU among defense ministers earlier this week. And high representative was very clear that the bottom line for us, the main position of the European Union is that Ukraine is fighting legitimate self-defensive war against an aggression.

Ukraine has the right to self-defense, according to international law, and such self-defense may include strikes against an aggressor on its territory, when it comes to military targets
_____________________
Humour of the day:
Ukraine asks for more Karl Gustav's.
But this time, not the anti-tank weapon but the real guy, The king of Sweden. :D
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It's hard to say what a reasonable 50/50 deal would be. For both Zelensky and Putin such a thing is impossible.
I assumed you meant 50/50 literally. Russia returns half of what it took, and gets to keep the other half officially rather then just occupied territory.

But I agree that there is high chances that Russia rejects it outright and that they already decided to reject it no matter its content. (Putin will say that a deal proposed without China is not worth considering.)
Obviously it won't reject it no matter what the contents. We could easily come up with a hypothetical set of contents that Russia would jump on in a heartbeat.

But he will at least know what's the basis for starting negotiation commonly accepted by The West, India and a few other countries (if the latters agree on the text).
I made a search on what was the decision of India and found this, as the most recent information:
India's PM confirms India will participate in Peace Summit in Switzerland
It's not known at which level. As I understand it's unlikely that Modi would come in person. But there is a wide range of diplomacy levels available.
Agreed. I think this is the start of the process of negotiating. It will likely be a long road with both sides more or less willing to move from their positions based on performance on the front.

Is realy very old, like from the 50's, or it just looks old?
It's from 1976. Pre-war it was out of service, but some were pulled back out as part of the mobilization efforts. The chassis is a ZiL-131, it has that old look. The truck actually remained in production into the 2000's, without major redesign to the appearance.

I have read somwhere that some "NATO" missiles are able to make a difference between a real target and a decoy. (But I con't find information about that right now.)
Apparently civilian satellite imagery can make the difference, so I'm not sure that matters. Just map the decoys in advance, and don't target them.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Germany has been spending money in other countries, buying secondhand stuff to be given to Ukraine. IIRC Rheinmetall is currently making ammunition outside Germany to fill German orders for Ukraine & to refill German stocks, & is investing in expanding production in Hungary as well as Germany. The Czech ammunition project has sourced 122mm, 152mm, & most of all 155mm shells from various places around the world, & multiple NATO countries have given money to it. Denmark gave Ukraine artillery it had just bought for its own army, & bought new guns from Israel as replacements (because it could deliver first).

So while they might prefer that money they give is spent at home, they mostly don't insist on it. The Germans seem quite willing to buy cheaper, or stuff for quick delivery, outside Germany.
Re Czech initiative and money. A few days ago, there was the following report:

Czech Defense Minister Jana Černochová has called on European allies to contribute financially to the Czech initiative for ammunition for Ukraine, as only four countries have fulfilled their financial commitments so far, citing Euractiv.

The initiative has secured financial commitments from 18 countries, predominantly EU and NATO members. Czechia positions itself as an intermediary, coordinating donor commitment memorandums and procurement agreements, and then overseeing the logistical aspects of deliveries.

Although the number of countries pledging financial support is increasing, only a few have actually sent funds.

"Funds flow to us gradually; we cannot buy ammunition on debt. If some countries have signed a memorandum but have not yet sent funds, we cannot proceed with acquisitions. It is a bit of an appeal to those governments which have already signed memorandums to send the money," Černochová said, emphasizing the logistical and financial challenges.

She also mentioned that so far, only Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Portugal have sent money for the purchase of ammunition.



Today, it was reported that Russia is buying up the same ammunition because they pay the cash before the coalition:

Russia is beating western capitals in securing artillery supplies on international markets, the Czech government has said, warning that delayed payments to arms companies could lead to millions of ammunition rounds being sent to Moscow instead of Kyiv.

Prague is coordinating purchases of ammunition from arms companies in non-Nato countries on behalf of many western allies, but is struggling to compete with Moscow, which has proved it can get financing to manufacturers faster.

“There are some countries that are supplying [Ukraine] from the same stockpiles that the Russians are [buying from],” Tomáš Kopečný, Prague’s envoy for the reconstruction of Ukraine, told journalists Thursday. “If you have the cash to do the pre-payment faster than the Russians, then the products go to the Ukrainian side. If you don’t have the cash on the account, then sometimes it goes to the Russians.”[…]

“The production capacity is out there. But it is not in Europe,” Kopečný said. “There are single-digit millions of rounds of ammunition that we are competing [with Russia] for . . . The only thing we need for that is corresponding finances.”



Also of note from the same article:

The Czech warning comes as its domestic arms producer Czechoslovak Group, the largest ammunition supplier in central Europe, warned that rising prices and poor quality meant that half the shells it had received could not be sent to Ukraine’s battlefields as quickly as planned.

Michal Strnad, owner and chair of CSG, told the Financial Times that about 50 per cent of the parts acquired by his company on behalf of the Czech government in places such as Africa and Asia were not good enough to be sent to Ukraine without further work. For some shells, CSG is being forced to add missing components from its own production.

“Every week the price is going up and there are big issues with the components,” Strnad said during an interview in his company’s Prague offices. “It’s not an easy job.”


And

Strnad said that the order books of European ammunition makers were full for up to the next eight years, depending on the type of parts, even as “all of us are increasing the capacities”.

Even in the unlikely scenario of Ukraine’s war finishing right now, he said, “there will be huge work in front of us to replenish the strategic stocks of Nato countries”.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
I assumed you meant 50/50 literally. Russia returns half of what it took,
Not exactly, but something of that effect. ;)

KipPotapych said:
Czech initiative and money.
Again, I'm one more time angry at european leaders who made commitments but didn't send the money. That's a shame.

Arms producer Czechoslovak Group said:
about 50 per cent of the parts acquired by his company on behalf of the Czech government in places such as Africa and Asia were not good enough to be sent to Ukraine without further work. For some shells, CSG is being forced to add missing components from its own production.
This slows the delivery even more. And the quality won't be as good as NATO grade shells. This initiative won't help as much as it should.

I wonder if Russians didn't pay some suppliers for delivering defectuous or uncomplete shells to the Czechs, hoping that the shells will be send directly to Ukraine without verification...?

Tomáš Kopečný Prague’s envoy said:
There are some countries that are supplying [Ukraine] from the same stockpiles that the Russians are [buying from],
In every bad news, there is a good news. If Russians are buying shells abroad, it means that their domestic production is not yet up to full output. But their non-military industry is already producing for the military in the context of the war economy.
Or do they buy these shells so that the Czechs can't buy them? That would be expensive policy...

_________________________

Poland proposes to train Ukrainian conscripts who are residing in Poland.
This is very clever because these Ukrainians who are hiding in Poland would not be able to evade conscription any more, or not so easily, without the need to deport them. As I understand, these conscripts could be allowed to stay in Poland during and after their service.
During their training, some conscripts could be convinced to return voluntarily to Ukraine to fight.

To complete the list of countries who agree and those who don't:
Belgium not to allow Ukraine use its F-16 for hitting targets inside Russia
Prime Minister of Belgium said:
The security agreement stipulates that military equipment will be used by the armed forces of Ukraine and on the territory of Ukraine
But will deliver 30 F16's until 2028, starting this year.
These F16's had to be replaced by F35's.

US officially confirms: Ukraine can use US weapons to strike inside Russia, but not ATACMS.
Senior Director for Europe at the U.S. National Security Council Michael Carpenter said:
the decision is aimed at disrupting the Russian offensive and "does not apply to ATACMS or long-range strikes
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Another Russian S300/400 battery hit, this time by HIMARS in the Belgorod region. It’s kind of funny because of the persistent reports about greatly decreased accuracy of HIMARS due to EW.


More reports of the Ukrainian troops not receiving adequate, if any, training. As I proposed earlier, those serving away from and now sent to the front line have not been trained for such duties. Mobilization of old and those in poor health appears to be ongoing.

Wherever the new soldiers come from, Ukrainian field commanders said that because training is so deficient, they must often devote weeks to teaching them basic skills, such as how to shoot.

“We had guys that didn’t even know how to disassemble and assemble a gun,” said a 28-year-old deputy battalion commander from the 93d Mechanized Brigade[…]

“We are just wasting a lot of time here on basic training,” Schmidt said, adding: “If, God forbid, there will be a breakthrough near Chasiv Yar, and we get new infantry that doesn’t know basic things, they will be sent there to just die.”[…]

To get more troops to the battlefield immediately, Zelensky’s recently appointed military chief, Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, has redeployed people who were previously serving in jobs such as guarding bridges and other infrastructure far from the combat zone to brigades engaged in some of the fiercest fighting.

The move was designed in part to reduce the number of men who would have to be drafted — an issue that is politically fraught for Zelensky. Syrsky’s predecessor, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, had proposed drafting close to 500,000 people — a figure Zelensky publicly rejected by saying he had not been shown evidence that it was necessary and that Ukraine would struggle financially to pay so many new soldiers’ salaries.[…]

For front-line commanders, any new troops are welcome, given that some units have endured months without reinforcements. But many of these redeployed arrivals appear ill-prepared, commanders said, despite many having served in the military since the start of Russia’s invasion more than two years ago, albeit far from the battlefield.[…]

An officer who has spent more than a year instructing new soldiers at one of Ukraine’s facilities said the training centers are low on Soviet-caliber ammunition because it is being saved for troops on the battlefield. That means recruits get little experience firing live rounds. The officer said the training center received just 20 bullets per person.[…]

The chief sergeant for a battalion fighting in the eastern Donetsk region described a process in which certain brigades, particularly assault brigades, often get first pick of new soldiers brought to training centers.
The sergeant, who is typically sent to training centers to select troops for his battalion, spoke on the condition of anonymity to be candid and because he was not authorized to discuss the sensitive matter publicly.

Some assault brigades might devote personnel to live practically full-time near training centers, the sergeant said, to quickly snatch up the youngest, fittest, most motivated men. The officer who was an instructor at a training center confirmed that some brigades indeed plot for first dibs.

“If they send us to recruit someone, all the good ones have already been taken by other brigades, and you have to choose from the crooked, lame, sick ones,” the sergeant said. “And so you choose from them, dammit.”

The sergeant said that he aims to communicate with soldiers to get a sense for who is more willing to fight versus those who were conscripted forcibly and might refuse orders on the battlefield. This is expected to become an issue of heightened importance, as most Ukrainians eager to serve have already volunteered to do so. Those who have not yet volunteered tend to be resistant to fighting.

Some recruits, the sergeant said, are deemed physically fit despite being over age 50 with knee and back issues, meaning they will struggle to walk miles with a pack of gear and weapons, as is often required. Some brigades are ordered to take those men anyway.

“There are guys whom you just look in the eye and understand he’s hesitating,” the sergeant said. “He needs a push. He needs confidence in his weapon, confidence that we won’t abandon him, and he will fight.”

“And there are those who immediately say, ‘I won’t fight,’” he added. “Of course, you try not to take them. But again, in our army, it’s set up so that the personnel department tells you, ‘No way, you have to take him, he’s healthy.’”



Ukraine is taking heavy losses in the Kharkiv region.

Denys Yaroslavsky, commander of a reconnaissance battalion in Ukraine’s 57th Brigade, entered the border town of Vovchansk on May 2, accompanied by four battalions of exhausted troops. Fresh from the battlefield in a different northeastern city, they soon realized their new positions were the first line of defense — and that only 200 troops were already stationed in the town.

When Russian forces pushed in just over a week later, he said, “we lost almost the entire battalion.”[…]

Yaroslavsky and his reconnaissance battalion were hunkered down in Vovchansk just hoping to survive. That day, he said, his troops weathered an “insane” number of glide bomb strikes — more than 40 in 24 hours.[…]

Kozhemyako, the founder of Khartia, also said his troops had suffered punishing hits as Washington deliberated the policy shift. Over the past 20 days, he said, they have come under 250 glide bomb strikes, attacks so powerful that even those who are not badly wounded or killed are often traumatized and concussed by the shock waves. After the airstrikes, Russian ground troops then storm their positions, he said.



Reports in Russian media suggest that there are also alleged cases of previously wounded and now handicapped being sent back to the battlefield (via Google translate):

A resident of Volgograd with a disability was forcibly taken to the airport to be sent to the special military operation zone (SVO). This was stated by the sister of the serviceman V1.ru.

According to the Russian woman, her brother was wounded in the SVO zone, after which he was assigned a disability of the third group. A man cannot return to the combat zone for health reasons, the woman said.

Despite this, a criminal case on desertion was opened against the Volgograd man, the interlocutor of the publication continued. Upon the arrival of the fighter in the military unit to clarify the situation, according to his sister, he was "twisted and sent directly to the airport." The soldier told a relative that a detachment of "such as him" is being formed in the Rostov region. Whether the participants of the SVO with disabilities were meant is not specified in the note.

Now the man is at the disposal of the unit. There was no response to the request sent by journalists to the press service of the Southern Military District.



Zelensky stated that the Hamas attack on Israel and war in Gaza should not be mixed together:

He said that the conflict should not be seen as a single issue.

In the early days of the conflict, Ukraine had said Israel had the right to defend itself in the context of Hamas's terror attacks against Israeli civilians, and that was a specific case.

After that, when Israel launched a military offensive into Gaza, and there was a humanitarian crisis, Ukraine had said that it was ready to lend humanitarian help to Gaza and that there is a need to respect international laws.

Finally Zelensky said that Ukraine recognised two states, Israel and Palestine. Ukraine recognised Palestine while it was still part of the former Soviet bloc in 1988.

He added that Ukraine was willing to do everything to help Israel stop the conflict, so that civilians did not suffer.

He urged that the two periods, the Hamas attack and the current invasion of Gaza should not be mixed into a single one.


 

Fredled

Active Member
KipPotapych said:
Another Russian S300/400 battery hit,
this time by HIMARS in the Belgorod region.
The first instance of a result of the ban lift. IMO, Ukrainian and American "observers" or "instructors" present in Ukraine still talk together about which target to strike in Russia.

I wonder if the S300/400 battery was used as air defense (as Ukrinform suggests. This is what they say.) or for surface to surface attacks?

KipPotapych said:
It’s kind of funny because of the persistent reports about greatly decreased accuracy of HIMARS due to EW.
It's mostly GPS interference. Solely GPS guided missiles would miss their targets because of this interference. Some types of missile have several navigation devices beside GPS. (I don;t know about HIMARS missiles specificaly. But Stormshadows have them). Also the GPS software or hardware can be adapted to counter or reduce the effect of interferences. It's a cat and mouse technology race.

KipPotapych said:
More reports of the Ukrainian troops not receiving adequate, if any, training.
I believe this is the case. But don't believe that it's all new recruits. The number of recruits trained by western allies is growing at the same time. And they have a plan to train them in Ukraine now. I think the poorly trained and low motivated recruits are the "non-professionals".

Blast at Russian ammo depot in Belgorod region leaves seven soldiers injured
Ukrinform said:
As per tentative reports, the blast was caused by careless ammunition handling
I wonder if it's once again, a joke about smoking being bad for russian soldier's health (a way to say that Ukrainians did it) or if it's true...
_____________
Swiss Peace Summit's Saga:
Zelensky arrived unannounced at the Asian Peace Conference Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.
This, IMO, caught Chinese off guard. And the Chinese delegation refused to meet him. Maybe because the Chinese didn't know he was coming...?
Nonetheless Zelensky is angry at China for not meeting him and not attending the Swiss conference:
He said:
Regrettably, Russia, using Chinese influence on the region, using Chinese diplomats also, does everything to disrupt the peace summit. It is unfortunate that such a big, independent, powerful country as China is an instrument in the hands of Putin
It's funny beecause pundits usualy believe that it's Russia which became an instrument of China.

US: Kamala Harris will represent the US at the Swiss summit.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
The first instance of a result of the ban lift. IMO, Ukrainian and American "observers" or "instructors" present in Ukraine still talk together about which target to strike in Russia.

I wonder if the S300/400 battery was used as air defense (as Ukrinform suggests. This is what they say.) or for surface to surface attacks?
I have little doubt that it works the same with these strikes as it does with others and as it was outlined by a Washington Post (or NYT?) article I cited here a while ago: basically, the “go ahead” and coordinates are provided/adjusted by the Americans.

From other reports I saw, these were air defense units involved in protecting Belgorod.

It's mostly GPS interference. Solely GPS guided missiles would miss their targets because of this interference. Some types of missile have several navigation devices beside GPS. (I don;t know about HIMARS missiles specificaly. But Stormshadows have them). Also the GPS software or hardware can be adapted to counter or reduce the effect of interferences. It's a cat and mouse technology race.
It depends what they used for the strike. Various munitions are affected to a different degree. Reports indicate that GLSDB, for example, is no longer used by the Ukrainians because they no longer can hit their targets in something like 90-95% of the time.

The GLSDB, a precision munition with a longer range than the Excalibur, produced jointly by Boeing and the Swedish company Saab, has also been hampered by Russian electronic warfare, according to the second military report.

Ukrainian troops have ceased deploying the GLSDB on the battlefield, according to Andrew Zagorodnyuk, head of the Center for Defense Strategies, a research organization in Kyiv.



There are similar reports about the Excalibur shells and that the preference is now given to the “dumb” artillery munitions (from the same article):

The American M777 howitzers used by Musician’s crew were praised for their capabilities when they were first introduced into the Ukrainian theater in 2022. But Musician said his unit had stopped using Excalibur shells at the beginning of 2023 because of their ineffectiveness.

Instead, he said, they were firing unguided artillery shells, which are less accurate and require greater quantities of ammunition to take out a target.


As related to HIMARS in particular, there are no specific reports that were corroborated by the western sources to any specifics and technicalities, but the Ukes suggested numerous times now that they have had problems hitting the targets. Sometimes observing every single projectile missing the targets. Some munitions were more accurate than others. But they even requested “dumb” cluster munitions for HIMARS as well because they can still inflict damage even if they are not exactly on target:

The Ukrainian military documents did not assess guided M30 or M31 munitions, which are fired from HIMARS launchers. But in January, Ukraine’s military command wrote a policy paper urging Western supporters to provide an alternative: M26 cluster munitions that also could be launched from multiple-launch rocket systems. These low-tech, unguided rockets are resistant to jamming, and the cluster submunitions can still hit targets in a wide area even if the shot is imprecise.

Kyiv still considers its HIMARS rockets effective, but Russian jamming can cause them to miss a target by 50 feet or more.


But again, it depends what they used to hit them with. GBUs, for example, are still very effective and hit their targets 90% of the time. JDAMS, on the other hand, miss their targets from 20 to 400 meters (!). I believe this Kiev Post article outlines the issues cited in NYT and WP above and its free to read (but I only skipped through it very quickly):


I believe this is the case. But don't believe that it's all new recruits. The number of recruits trained by western allies is growing at the same time.
Is there even still en masse training of the UA troops by the west as there was last year?

I think the poorly trained and low motivated recruits are the "non-professionals".
Define non-professionals vs professionals. I don’t believe any of the newly recruited soldiers are professionals. That would be by definition, actually.

Swiss Peace Summit's Saga:
Zelensky arrived unannounced at the Asian Peace Conference Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.
This, IMO, caught Chinese off guard. And the Chinese delegation refused to meet him. Maybe because the Chinese didn't know he was coming...?
Nonetheless Zelensky is angry at China for not meeting him and not attending the Swiss conference:

It's funny beecause pundits usualy believe that it's Russia which became an instrument of China.
The guy is nuts. Not saying he is wrong here though because I don’t have anything of substance to suggest one way or the other.

Kazakhstan responded to the interview I cited earlier to the Kazakh media outlet (via Google translate):

Representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan Aibek Smadiyarov said at a briefing that Kazakhstan considers the idea of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to give an interview to several Central Asian media to be questionable.[…]

"As far as we know, the Ukrainian side initiated this project independently and invited representatives of a number of private media in Kazakhstan to Kiev to conduct an interview," said Aibek Smadiyarov[…]

According to Mr. Smadiyarov, the information did not pass through official diplomatic channels, and the interview itself turned out to be "more emotional than rational." "I would like to say that this whole idea with an interview seems very dubious to us... It would be much easier to address the Kazakh audience through the Ukrainian media," said the diplomat.



Reports also indicate that Zelensky’s office instructed Ukrainian diplomats and staff to criticize Biden along side with Xi:

Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s frustration with Joe Biden was laid bare this week, when the Ukrainian president rebuked his US counterpart in unusually blunt terms, saying Biden’s plan to attend a Democratic fundraiser rather than Ukraine’s peace summit on June 15-16 was “not a strong decision”.

One Zelenskyy-appointed senior government official who spoke to the Financial Times about the US-Ukraine relationship said: “We are farther apart than ever since the war started. It is very, very tense.”[…]

Zelenskyy’s office this week issued a memo to officials and MPs, seen by the FT, that instructs them to criticise both Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping for not attending the summit. “If they don’t [attend], then what is their real interest?” the memo wrote.

Several Ukrainian officials said that Kyiv’s bitterness over lack of top-level US support for its peace summit initiative was just one of many points of friction with Washington and other western partners that have erupted at a particularly difficult time for Ukraine’s leadership.

Other points of concern relate to diverging strategies on how Ukraine can achieve victory and what that victory might look like, as well as Zelenskyy’s little explained removal of top government and military officials the US had worked closely with.

Several Ukrainian government officials and diplomats from G7 nations cited the firing of commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny in February and infrastructure minister Oleksandr Kubrakov this month. Both men were well respected and enjoyed close working relationships with US and EU officials. The officials told the FT that G7 ambassadors have warned Zelenskyy’s government about what they see as disruptive and inexplicable moves.


 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
I wonder if the S300/400 battery was used as air defense (as Ukrinform suggests. This is what they say.) or for surface to surface attacks?
More context to this part, as I didn’t have enough time to provide any sources when making the previous post. This was a unit protecting Belgorod. There are currently rumours about another battery being hit somewhere in the area, but these are only rumours for now.

Here is a Ukrainian source stating that this was a battery protecting Belgorod:


I will translate the post since it is short: “This is the first, but not last, strike of pan (Mr in Ukrainian) HIMARS on the “iron” AD of Belgorod. In the nearest future (hours?) we will see, and the Russians will feel it.
This is for all the intercepted munitions of Vilkha


Vilkha is, of course, an MLRS (or one of) that Ukraine shells Belgorod with.

I should note, this is a decent source, not some rando on the internet (though aren’t they/we all?). Here is another post they made when the first news of the American change of heart regarding the strikes on the Russian territory broke out:


I will translate once more: “I am surprised, I thought this process would take a lot longer. Hopefully, we will soon see shelling of Belgorod from HIMARS.
Seriously, this is very good news because you have no idea how many victories we have missed because of these imposed limits.


They are surprised? No doubt, haha:

Over 90 minutes, the Ukrainians made a pressing case to be able to use U.S. weapons to fire back over the border into Russia to prevent their city from being overrun.[…]

After the videoconference, the three U.S. officials agreed that the Ukrainians’ appeal made sense and that a recommendation should be put to Biden.


This is from the second Washington Post article I cited three posts above. But anyway…

I am also not sure how this lines up with the reported lift of limitations. This is an example of what has been generally reported on this development:

Biden’s directive allows for U.S.-supplied weapons to be used for “counterfire purposes in the Kharkiv region so Ukraine can hit back against Russian forces that are attacking them or preparing to attack them,” one official said.


Of course, there is probably a lot more going on than what is being reported. The most concerning part, in my opinion, is that there is a general consensus that all restrictions will be lifted rather sooner than later. Or, more importantly, the choice of words by the top US officials. For example:

“Going forward, we’ll continue to do what we’ve been doing, which is: As necessary, adapt and adjust,” Mr. Blinken said at a news conference in Prague at the end of a two-day meeting of top diplomats from member nations of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Mr. Blinken was responding to a reporter’s question on whether the United States might give permission for Ukraine to use U.S.-made weapons to strike deeper into Russia.



There were also words of “testing limits”, etc. Getting into a territory of crazy here a little bit. I would guess many here are completely fine with this development, I am not so much. While the current reported restrictions make sense (Ukrainians have been doing it anyway, but now have a wider choice of weapons to do it with), further extension would be pretty crazy (not as if there wasn’t any luck of it as it is). I will make another post on the subject when time permits.

So what is Russia going to do? They surely must respond to it (the current escalation). It would be dumb for them not, wouldn’t it? I am assuming the first thing we shall see in the near future is shooting down of unmanned recon assets above the Black Sea (and elsewhere?), such as Reapers and Hawks, for example. This is just a common sense least thing to do for the clear “feedback” purposes (I am honestly surprised that hasn’t happened yet, a while ago). Perhaps, a clear warning of intent to intercept other aircraft in the area. What else of significance? They can probably open another front in Sumy, but that is probably coming if it is to come regardless, so to speak. Anyway, I am out of time, but will try to come back to this subject at a later time. Anyone cares to express their thoughts?

Edit: An interesting “pattern” that I have noticed in the past few months. I make a post here, cite an article, etc, then see the same article cited in the RU internet space the next day or so (though my and their ideas and points often differ). Here I posted the above about the Rippers and Hawks and then shortly after there is a post by Fighterbomber suggesting that they should bring them down “by packs” and such a decision might come in the nearest future, lol.


I should probably contact him for the sources in order to get my share of remuneration.
 
Last edited:

Fredled

Active Member
[size=x-small]criminal psychopath[/size]
KipPotapych said:
Is there even still en masse training of the UA troops by the west as there was last year?
Yes. The numbers for 2024 are higher than for 2023, for the few allied countries I read about. I forgot the exact number, but it's in the tens of thousands.
Anyway, still a far cry of what they need to push Russian away.

If I see something again about this topic, I will post it here.
There are also talks about training soldiers inside Ukraine instead of moving them oversea. But as the saying goes, when they announce something it means that they have been doing it already.

KipPotapych said:
Define non-professionals vs professionals.
I used the term as a way to speak. Not the sens of career military personnel, but people with professional level training.

KipPotapych said:
Reports also indicate that Zelensky’s office instructed Ukrainian diplomats and staff to criticize Biden along side with Xi:
Zelensky has been almost offended that Joe Biden won't attend. But he forgot that the US president is not as young as him anymore. And on top of that, during an election campaign he has to be present in America more than abroad.

Since, they announced Kamala Harris at the summit. Which is second highest level.

KipPotapych said:
The most concerning part, in my opinion, is that there is a general consensus that all restrictions will be lifted rather sooner than later.
AFAIK, countries lifting restrictions lifted all restrictions. Only the US made an exception for ATACMS. Stromshadows and Scalps can hit Russia, so everything lower than that also can.
I doesn't change much because it allows them to hit targets only 100 miles beyond the border with the Stormshadows. And only 40 miles with HIMARS. No big deal.

With F16's, some country didn;t limit their use, others did. They could theatrically penetrate deeper into Russian territory but it would be suicide.

KipPotapych said:
So what is Russia going to do? They surely must respond to it (the current escalation).
The opinion of many pundits, and my opinion too, is that Russia doesn't have much room for escalation since they are already attacking Ukraine with all their means at their disposal.

My fear is that they fire missiles at a NATO country. That's the only way they could respond. But that would be counter productive. NATO would only speed up their weapon production. Not talking about how NATO could retaliate. I don't think Putin wants NATO to actively join the war.

Of course there is the fear that Russians would respond with nukes, either on Ukraine or on Europe. But this is unlikely because, I think, Putin can't take this decision alone. but the risk actually has never been higher.

KipPotapych said:
the first thing we shall see in the near future is shooting down of unmanned recon assets above the Black Sea (and elsewhere?), such as Reapers and Hawks, for example.
I don't think they are able to do that because NATO/US planes, manned and unmanned are not going close enough to Russians lines. And Russians won't risk their aircraft far on the west side of the Black Sea, flying close or over NATO member's national waters or close to Ukrainian AD.
I think that if they had a chance to down an US drone, they would have done it already.

KipPotapych said:
An interesting “pattern” that I have noticed in the past few months. I make a post here, cite an article, etc, then see the same article cited in the RU internet space the next day or so
It means you are the top source! LOL. ;)

For me it's less funny because it means that "they" read this forum and I must be careful of what I write. For example, I shouldn't write too often, and preferably not in bold letters, that Putin is a criminal psychopath..
I think they have already identified me as a foreign agent anyway. As I'm not a famous person or a civil or a military servant, they probably don't pay too much attention to me. But I wouldn't be surprised that my name already figure on one of their list among thousands of others.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I don't think they are able to do that because NATO/US planes, manned and unmanned are not going close enough to Russians lines. And Russians won't risk their aircraft far on the west side of the Black Sea, flying close or over NATO member's national waters or close to Ukrainian AD.
I think that if they had a chance to down an US drone, they would have done it already.
Western UAVs routinely enter the eastern half of the Black Sea. A simple look at map of their recon flights, and at flighttracker shows this.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
There are also talks about training soldiers inside Ukraine instead of moving them oversea. But as the saying goes, when they announce something it means that they have been doing it already.
I want to know what happens when Russia strikes and kills some of that training personnel (that is openly and officially in Ukraine). Do we just shrug it off and send replacement? Do we strike back? What do we do?

I used the term as a way to speak. Not the sens of career military personnel, but people with professional level training.
I don’t believe anyone is getting any professional level of training, aside, perhaps, from some specialized personnel and special forces. Even in case of the latter it is highly unlikely - at the very least, timelines surely suggest so. Those on the battlefield likely get much more valuable lessons.

AFAIK, countries lifting restrictions lifted all restrictions. Only the US made an exception for ATACMS. Stromshadows and Scalps can hit Russia, so everything lower than that also can.
I doesn't change much because it allows them to hit targets only 100 miles beyond the border with the Stormshadows. And only 40 miles with HIMARS. No big deal.
Until they receive the missiles with longer range that is. The same Storm Shadows can fly quite a bit longer than 100 miles. Even that number is low because, if I recall correctly, it was reported that the range of the missiles supplied to Ukraine is over 150 miles.

I will address the no big deal part in another post because it kind of is.

The opinion of many pundits, and my opinion too, is that Russia doesn't have much room for escalation since they are already attacking Ukraine with all their means at their disposal.
I don't think they are able to do that because NATO/US planes, manned and unmanned are not going close enough to Russians lines. And Russians won't risk their aircraft far on the west side of the Black Sea, flying close or over NATO member's national waters or close to Ukrainian AD.
I think that if they had a chance to down an US drone, they would have done it already.
There are certainly ways for them to escalate. Shooting down US drones would be one of them. Satellites is another. Sabotage in the western countries is yet one more. And so on. There are still ways to go before the nukes come into play. They can even escalate things in Ukraine to yet another level and go beyond energy infrastructure. They can simply increase the civilian casualties and suffering. At the end of the day, there is also chemical and biological warfare, to pick from a “lesser evil”. But nukes would certainly be the logical choice first. At the end of the day, they can hit a nuclear plant in Rivne, among other places, but that one in particular. There are still numerous ways they can take it up a notch before ever touching the nukes, and that goes for both, Ukraine and outside their borders. They can even strike a state that supports the Ukrainian war efforts, but is not a part of NATO. Thinking that they had reached the limit of their capabilities is definitely wrong and unproductive.

As for their abilities, yes, they certainly can shoot down the assets I mentioned. I mean they already brought one Reaper down last March (?). And that was an intercept via a direct contact with a Russian aircraft. Russians have restrained themselves from these actions otherwise (another incident involved dropping some fuel on a drone as well, if I recall correctly).

My fear is that they fire missiles at a NATO country. That's the only way they could respond. But that would be counter productive. NATO would only speed up their weapon production. Not talking about how NATO could retaliate. I don't think Putin wants NATO to actively join the war.

Of course there is the fear that Russians would respond with nukes, either on Ukraine or on Europe. But this is unlikely because, I think, Putin can't take this decision alone. but the risk actually has never been higher.
While the risk of a nuclear strike by Russia is significant (definitely higher, in my opinion, than what the “top men” are suggesting), I do not believe there is anything that can be gained by such a strike on a NATO state “out of the blue”. If they were to retaliate against a NATO state, they would first hit it with some conventional missiles and the strike would carry some significance in terms of war efforts. Then see how things play out from there. Nuclear strike is the last resort sort of thing, clearly. Conventional means would be involved first without a doubt.

One thing to consider here is that Russia so far has been responding to our continues escalation through out this war. They haven’t introduced anything new into this mess that hasn’t been there from the start (normal developments aside). Moreover, their capabilities (and perception of such, which is also important) have certainly decreased since the invasion because of their failure in planning and execution. The fact that they want to avoid a war with NATO is quite obvious.

Another thing to consider is that, in spite of disbelief of many, Russia (read Putin and Co, but it is likely the entire country - that is, a great majority) believe that they are defending themselves and have been from the beginning. Some can argue that this is not the case till their noses bleed (Biden still talks about the reconstruction of the Soviet Union, for example, which is laughable), but it is (or should be) certainly a consideration at least and a very likely reality at… well, not most, but reality, really. Hence, the tolerance for the losses, be it on the battlefield, economic sanctions, etc. So “adapt and adjust” and “testing the limits” should absolutely consider this possibility. Does it? I am not so sure and heavily leaning towards a no. This has been a complete clusterf from before it began. A defending side would go to a lot more effort to defend themselves than an offensive side trying to capture some largely meaningless dirt, in the grand scheme of things. To note, this is not a discussion of what is a perceived reality of anyone’s account, but the implications of strategic planning and consequences because they sure should encompass these possibilities. To me personally, it doesn’t look like they are.

It means you are the top source! LOL. ;)
Lol. Simpler than that, I am afraid. As for the media references, there are only so many outlets and even less of them that are considered reliable. So we all read the same stuff; those of us who do, that is. So the articles cited all over the world are basically ones and the same, but the interpretation may differ. It is all a matter of who sees it first, I guess, and offers some thoughts for discussion or propaganda efforts, among other things. Today, for example, I saw some references in the Russian outlets to Czech initiative I talked about a few days ago. The interpretation was somewhat different from mine though.

As for the drones coming down talk coincidence, there are at least two options here: 1) great minds think alike, or 2) fools seldom differ. Haha.

In all seriousness though, I was merely attempting to make a joke: I should deserve some compensation for my time spent on spreading the Russian propaganda (as it was suggested so previously) and Fighterbomber may be able to direct me in the right direction for that. Something like this.

For me it's less funny because it means that "they" read this forum and I must be careful of what I write. For example, I shouldn't write too often, and preferably not in bold letters, that Putin is a criminal psychopath..
I think they have already identified me as a foreign agent anyway. As I'm not a famous person or a civil or a military servant, they probably don't pay too much attention to me. But I wouldn't be surprised that my name already figure on one of their list among thousands of others.
While you are underestimating their capabilities in terms of escalation as outlined above, you are certainly overestimating their capabilities and interest/involvement in you or any of us here. I wouldn’t be too concerned.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
I want to know what happens when Russia strikes and kills some of that training personnel (that is openly and officially in Ukraine). Do we just shrug it off and send replacement? Do we strike back? What do we do?
I would imagine those trainers in country would be treated as fair game by both sides. Any training will likely be far from the front, and only in danger of cruise missile attacks, which will have plenty of warning.

There are certainly ways for them to escalate. Shooting down US drones would be one of them. Sabotage in the western countries is yet one more. And so on.
Already done (ok, technically they didnt shoot it down...) and done.

At the end of the day, there is also chemical and biological warfare, to pick from a “lesser evil”.
On paper, Russia has disposed of its chemical warfare arms by 2017. Of course they have some Novichok lying around....
 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
Western UAVs routinely enter the eastern half of the Black Sea.
So, why aren't they shooting them down routinely?
IMHO, it's because they can't. Not because they don;t care, or because they don't want to escalate.

KipPotapych said:
I want to know what happens when Russia strikes and kills some of that training personnel (that is openly and officially in Ukraine). Do we just shrug it off and send replacement? Do we strike back? What do we do?
We won;t do anything special. We know that Russians will target them. Maybe we will send replacements. Maybe political opposition will show outrage and ask for the cancelation of the program. Maybe we will ignore and not send replacement. Honestly I don;t know. But we won't retaliate because Ukrainians are already doing this every day.
KipPotapych said:
Those on the battlefield likely get much more valuable lessons.
It happens that it's more the Ukes training the Brits and other NATO instructors than the other way.
NATO trainers can teach some good stuffs, but not the experience of the battlefield. When battle hardened soldiers go to a western country, they are sharing their experience with NATO soldiers, or at least with officers interested in hearing what they say. NATO is getting a lot of feed back from Ukrainians. The teaching goes both ways.
That's what I heard from a documentary.

KipPotapych said:
if I recall correctly, it was reported that the range of the missiles supplied to Ukraine is over 150 miles.
Yes but they are not firing them right from the Russian border. When you take a safety distance into account, it's more less 100 miles.
On the global map of Russia, it's just a scratch. By no way "deep inside Russia" as we hear or read often.

KipPotapych said:
There are certainly ways for them to escalate.
Yes and no. They can change their targets. But their means for a large attack, like dozens of missiles at one time, are limited. If they want to make a retaliation which will cause important damage, and have a potential political impact, to a NATO site or country, they will be forced to divert some capabilities from the Ukrainian theatre.

KipPotapych said:
you are certainly overestimating their capabilities and interest/involvement in you or any of us here. I wouldn’t be too concerned.
I'm not overestimating their capabilities, and their will, to collect data on a big number of individuals. I'm very serious when I say that my name could figure on a list somewhere. But I agree that I shouldn't overestimate their interest in me because I'm not the worse pro-Ukrainian, anti-Putin meme sharing propagandist on social networks, from what I have seen.

vikingatespam said:
On paper, Russia has disposed of its chemical warfare arms by 2017. Of course they have some Novichok lying around....
I don't believe that Russia has destroyed all their stocks or laboratories able to producing chemical weapons. But true chemical weapons (not the tear gaz they dropped from quadcopters over Ukrainian trenches) is for them, like nukes: means of last resort. They don't want to make bad advertising by using them. Putin still wants to show that the Special War Operation is conventional and under control.
 
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