KAI KF-21

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Here we go again, all back to talk of this old issues. IP, Marketing Rights and Tech Transfer. This is just getting ridiculous excuses from Jokowi's administration. Everyone knows this is not matter of economic or financial capabilities. Everyone knows well this is matter of political will.

Indonesia have enough budget to sort those payment out, if enough Political Will to sort out this project. This is more to thinkin in this administration for not fulfill commitment make by previous administration. Especially the previous administration is political rival.

Just reduce or even cancelled F-15EX plann. There's enough budget to sort this KF-21 Blk 1. From beginning Indonesia is joining the program as Junior Partners. Knows well what Indonesia looking for is experience on involvement on Fighter Productions. Something that Indonesia has no experience before (and no, experience with turboprop production is different thing no matter some Idiots talk otherwise).

Junior Partner means have smaller access for IP, Marketing Rights, and Tech Transfer. There's different between Junior Partner and Equal Partner (as Indonesia has with CASA on CN235). Expecting Indonesia has similar partner rights on KFX just like in CN-235 is complete folly and clearly idiotic. All this reeks on lack of political will, simple as that.

Anyway, this is the twilight time from Jokowi's administration. They have to find solutions. Either pay and continue, or out. Personally if they want to out of the program, just make the deals with ROK for FA-50 license instead. That's one of example.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

This is quite blatant tone from ROK DAPA, which usually quite diplomatic on their tone to Indonesia commitment to KFX/KF-21 program. However even a kid (sarcasm) knows this is not due to financial constraint. With Indonesia continue shown appetite to procure high net worth defense assets, clear political will matters.

Korean also knows current administration will not answer this ongoing political commitment on the program. However new administration potentially can give clearer direction. Whose really responsible? Some says Jokowi's administration political backers, some says Jokowi's himself, some others blame Prabowo or his predecessor. Personally this is collective political standing from current administration.

Whatever the results, International partners need to be careful on doing International long term project with Indonesia.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
KF-21 in ADEX 2023. ROK shown big performance of KF-21 either in booth or on aero demo.


KAI Booth that shown various products of KAI. KF-21 become this year main performance. Although KAI also shown model of their Mid Size Cargo plane, which I see has resemblences with Kawasaki C-2 or Embrear K-390.

Also South Korea DAPA video shown prototype 3 and 4 that's being prepared for aerial demo on ADEX 2023.


 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group


Today there's quite commotion on KF-21 program, where ROK DAPA conduct investigation on Indonesian engineers (potentially from PT. DI as KAI partner), in tech stealing. This is base on the investigation on USB from that engineers which suspected have confidential files.

The second article is comment from Indonesian MoFA that claim to watch the investigation. However also reiterate that the engineers already involve in the program for 8 years, and knows the security procedure.

It may be at this moment as outsiders, I see as breach of security protocol. Could be innocent or could be something else. However this on top increasingly heated ROK and Indonesia defense co-op problem. Not only in KFX/KF-21, but also on 2nd batch DSME 209-1400 co-op. Several days ago PAL CEO claim they are still on talk and negotiate stages on 2nd Batch Submarine. Also talk on this year there'll be further payment for KF-21 program.

Indonesia administration already shown they're willing to pay USD 8.1bio for 42 Rafale, something that close to 4.5 times overdue payment for KF-21 participation program. Thus all talk on financial obligations increasingly shown just political will unwillingness from Indonesian on current scheme. Still it is not a good way on conducting international business from this administration.

So Jakarta, for crying out loud, just make decisions to Seoul. Either you still want in or out. Either pay or get out. This is continue become embarrassment already.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member


Today there's quite commotion on KF-21 program, where ROK DAPA conduct investigation on Indonesian engineers (potentially from PT. DI as KAI partner), in tech stealing. This is base on the investigation on USB from that engineers which suspected have confidential files.

The second article is comment from Indonesian MoFA that claim to watch the investigation. However also reiterate that the engineers already involve in the program for 8 years, and knows the security procedure.

It may be at this moment as outsiders, I see as breach of security protocol. Could be innocent or could be something else. However this on top increasingly heated ROK and Indonesia defense co-op problem. Not only in KFX/KF-21, but also on 2nd batch DSME 209-1400 co-op. Several days ago PAL CEO claim they are still on talk and negotiate stages on 2nd Batch Submarine. Also talk on this year there'll be further payment for KF-21 program.

Indonesia administration already shown they're willing to pay USD 8.1bio for 42 Rafale, something that close to 4.5 times overdue payment for KF-21 participation program. Thus all talk on financial obligations increasingly shown just political will unwillingness from Indonesian on current scheme. Still it is not a good way on conducting international business from this administration.

So Jakarta, for crying out loud, just make decisions to Seoul. Either you still want in or out. Either pay or get out. This is continue become embarrassment already.
I wonder what kind of course the new government will take after the elections this year. Will Prabowo and Gibran continue with Prabowo's current policy? Big chance that Ganjar and Mahfud will continue with what PDI-P is doing in this current administration. Anies and Amin....that can only become worse...

How sooner a clear decision is made, how beter it is. Ten years of hesitation, and political unwillingness have really damaged the image of Indonesia as reliable defence-project partner.
Anyway, South-Korea will start to build 40 KF-21 Boramae fighter jets this year with the 238,7 billion won ($178,6 million) allocated for the Defense Ministry.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
wonder what kind of course the new government will take after the elections this year. Will Prabowo and Gibran continue with Prabowo's current policy?
For me the problem is the co-op environment increasingly toxic. This is the not first time an Indonesian engineers caught breach security protocol on data base. Before it is determined to be innocent as he only bring data related to his job. That time it is decide to keep it under wrap for the sake on co-op working environment.

At this moment the talk bit overblown with different talk on what data the engineers has in the USB. One Korean officials talk about the data only general documents and nothing technical blue print. While other media talk that their sources implicate the data related to AESA radar. Something that Indonesian side being prohibited to get access.



AESA access is one of (from several local sources) tech aspects that Indonesia being claim not satisfied with the program. Whatever the data protocol access that engineers try to bring, it is for me shown the environment not conducive enough for continuing the co-op. I don't want to get more on whose to blame on this one, although as Indonesian I tend to blame Indonesian administration flip floping commitment as big cause of deteriorating environment.

If they want to change ROK/KAI to Frenchie/Dasault as partner for tech development, so be it. Although I do have doubt they can get more from Frenchie then ROK. Just cut clean and not flip floping. When one party continues talk officially on fiscal problems, while at same time they are going through financing on other more expensive projects with other vendors. That basically shown toward outside parties, you are incensere on continuing the project.

I don't see other candidates then Prabowo, will have more interest on KF-21. Thus why if Prabowo win, potentially he is the more likely then others to keep stay with KF-21. Still again it is has to be decide clean commitment soon. Otherwise the environment getting more toxic for proper co-op to continue.

Personally I have been in situation on commercial co-op agreement getting sour due to different perceptions from each parties. More likely that're derives on different perspective been raises, in which increase distrust and suspicion. That conditions on any circumstances is right formula for toxic working environment. When and if already reach that, better cut clean the co-op.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group

Diehl Defence and KAI signed agreement on integrating IRIS-T on both KAI Fighters (FA-50 and KF-21). Nice marketing strategy as this is also shown to potential buyers that those fighters open to integrating with several types missiles from different OEM.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Video from an enthusiasts X account shown KF-21 doing first aerial refueling test, with ROKAF A330 MRTT.


Add similar video on YouTube and Bemil.Chosun article on the aerial refueling exercise.


So far seems KAI manage to keep KF-21 testing on the prototypes, more or less on schedule. This to keep the Blk 1 time table for mass production in 2026.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
According to this article, from which i understand, the Indonesian government agrees with paying the full 20% of the development costs, on the condition that all the 48 KF-21s will be build/assembled in Indonesia.

This was probably not according to the contract/original plan, so it is up to South-Korea to accept this. If this is unacceptable to them, than it is to be expected that the Jokowi-administration will grab the chance to blame the South-Koreans. ....

 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
This was probably not according to the contract/original plan, so it is up to South-Korea to accept this. If this is unacceptable to them, than it is to be expected that the Jokowi-administration will grab the chance to blame the South-Koreans. ....
Local assembly is nothing more than putting together CKD. But it is the warranty of local assembled KF-21 that might be the true trigger.

The Indian MRCA program with the Made-In-India Rafale fell apart partly because India insisted on (1) local assembly by HAL, (2) but full warranty by Dassault. (not shared warranty)

This will be a massive risk since QC is outside of OEM responsibilities but they still have to assume liabilities for mistakes done by local partner. No manufacturer will accept this.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Local assembly is nothing more than putting together CKD. But it is the warranty of local assembled KF-21 that might be the true trigger.

The Indian MRCA program with the Made-In-India Rafale fell apart partly because India insisted on (1) local assembly by HAL, (2) but full warranty by Dassault. (not shared warranty)

This will be a massive risk since QC is outside of OEM responsibilities but they still have to assume liabilities for mistakes done by local partner. No manufacturer will accept this.
Absolutely agree. No manufacturer wants sole responsibility for the actions of an outside contract assembler or supplier. Although Spirit Aerospace is liable for some of Boeing’s troubles, Boeing has been badly damaged by not having direct control over Spirit’s QC (however Boeing’s QC could be just as bad). In any event, Boeing probably should buy back Spirit. They should also move back to Seattle.

Dassault didn’t let greed get in the the way of good business sense.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
assembly is nothing more than putting together CKD. But it is the warranty of local assembled KF-21 that might be the true trigger.
From begining of KFX project during SBY administration, the KFX facility in DI is geared only for production of some parts and license assembly. No more than that. I have lengthy debate years ago in this thread with one of Indonesian 'ex' member that can't accept basically the facility only going to do license manufacturing/assembly.

Under the agreement DI will be part of supply chain under KAI supervision. So what the talk on DI assembly Indonesian Fighters portion is not new one. As long as Indonesia pay the dues and completing assembly and parts manufacturing facilities in DI. The latter ones is something that are not also fully ready or fully invested yet (at least from the talks in Indonesian media and rumours that I head from 'finance' people.

So if what that article wrote is true, basically Indonesian administration cave in to reality of contract and back to original agreement path.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

ROK DAPA put video on one of KF-21 prototype being subjected to extreme temperature test. This one on extreme cold test condition.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

According to this article, from which i understand, the Indonesian government agrees with paying the full 20% of the development costs, on the condition that all the 48 KF-21s will be build/assembled in Indonesia.
Well if Yonhap source is true, then it is basically different approach from the article that @Sandhi Yudha put before. This's basically Indonesia taking possition of cutting losses. Whether it is because ROK demand total payment due by 2026, and Indonesia put possition that only willing to pay 600 bio Won (from 1.6 trillion won obligations) by that period. Or Indonesia asking more time beyond 2026 for payment.

So it is still one source against another ones, thus basically still rumours against rumours. However seems both rumours indicating this is close to final negotiations, one way or another.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member



Well if Yonhap source is true, then it is basically different approach from the article that @Sandhi Yudha put before. This's basically Indonesia taking possition of cutting losses. Whether it is because ROK demand total payment due by 2026, and Indonesia put possition that only willing to pay 600 bio Won (from 1.6 trillion won obligations) by that period. Or Indonesia asking more time beyond 2026 for payment.

So it is still one source against another ones, thus basically still rumours against rumours. However seems both rumours indicating this is close to final negotiations, one way or another.
Reading this article, it shows us again that Indonesia is an unreliable partner. The current administration just don't want to spend a single Rupiah on "this SBY-project".

The end of the development program is near, it is just better for both parties/sides to make a quick decision, and let South-Korea continue alone (or with another partner). At least the current administration can then use the budget for the N219 and Elang Hitam UAV, because the progress of both projects is also going as smooth and fast as a one-legged snail.
 
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koxinga

Well-Known Member
The end of the development program is near, it is just better for both parties/sides to make a quick decision, and let South-Korea continue alone (or with another partner).
IMO, that's the point of the current situation. Indonesia wants to exit, but the fact that money has already been spent (~USD200 million) means there must be some way to account for it from KAI. That could well be the sticking point. This is why talk about a third party coming to cover/takeover the remaining cost isn't the solution.

Else, Indonesia could just walk away from this and the Koreans couldn't care less.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
IMO, that's the point of the current situation. Indonesia wants to exit, but the fact that money has already been spent (~USD200 million) means there must be some way to account for it from KAI. That could well be the sticking point. This is why talk about a third party coming to cover/takeover the remaining cost isn't the solution.

Else, Indonesia could just walk away from this and the Koreans couldn't care less.
That's true. They are probably now negotiating about the best exit-strategy, what Indonesia can get for what already has been paid.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
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Bemil Chosun put this diagram om potential designs evolution of FA-50 family. Off course it is just speculation, however personally better Indonesia switch the agreement to work with ROK on potential single seat FA-50 or F-50.

LCA is also better for DI learning curve then straight goes to MRCA. After all that's also path that then IPTN try to do when negotiating license agreement for Hawk 200. Again this is just my personal wish, but who knows what come out from this settlement way out negotiation. For one thing it is been rumours before KAI offering FA-50 tied up with DI.

The tendencies of having Frenchie/Dasault as partner for DI aerospace program has been in talk as part of Rafale off set agreement. Including MRO for M88 turbofan. Perhaps work with KAI for M88 power F-50 ? Well just my amateur wishful thinking. However it is better as way out then this endless negotiating of KF-21.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Seems Yonhap source is legit. As Indonesian MinDef spokesman more or less confirmed it. However he emphasize it is not to ask discount, but more to Payment Adjustments. The rationale again on the matter of tech transfer.

Seems Indonesian MinDef believe that the tech transfer is not as much being bargain for. Thus the amount consider too much with what Indonesia got on the overall cooperation deals. Well Payment Adjustments vs Payment Cuts, Potato vs Potato'.

In the end it is seems the development confirmed, as basically negotiations to cut losses. Whatever exit strategy that's going to be accepted, it is depends on both sides consideration for overall defense cooperation scheme in future. Seems the incident of Tech Espionage really one of the underlying matters. Indonesian side seems think their engineers on the projects should have access on that particular radar tech, the ROK tend to see other way around.

As I put previously when taking on that accident, it is making the working relationship getting Toxic for both sides. Better in that situation to just cut loose the deal. Seems this negotiations going to go there. Will be interesting on how the 48 KF-21 deal for Indonesia being progressing. Will Indonesia going still toward with that 48 KF-21? As that's actually is seperate deal altogether.
 
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