KAI KF-21

Ananda

The Bunker Group


ROK DAPA agree to accept Indonesia reduce commitment. This KRW 600 bio, is from my understanding similar with what Indonesia ask during renegotiation. Eventough the portion is around only a third of previous Indonesia commitment, however with the overall cost of KF-21 development (Blk 1) expected to be reduce, it is still unclear whether Indonesia portion going to be only 7% or 10%. I sense it is the latter, as overall investment on the Blk 1 is less then projected initially.

"We comprehensively considered the cooperative relationship between the two countries, including the mass production of the Indonesian version of the fighter (IF-X) and the possibility of securing insufficient funds." They added, "We will finalize the cost-sharing negotiations with Indonesia to ensure that the project can be successfully completed in line with public expectations."We comprehensively considered the cooperative relationship between the two countries, including the mass production of the Indonesian version of the fighter (IF-X) and the possibility of securing insufficient funds." They added, "We will finalize the cost-sharing negotiations with Indonesia to ensure that the project can be successfully completed in line with public expectations."
Put this as quote, since it is from what I heard also part of negotiation. Indonesia reduce the investment in KF-21development cost, but still going to involve and proceed with IFX or IF-21 program.

That one at this moment personally I have big doubt, due to actuality on the level of insufficient facilities preparation and Investment to DI for this IF-21/IFX. Off course it could be different toward Prabowo's administration, but I still reserve my doubt.

Personally until they're preparing more Investment, I still regards the move as part of Indonesian exit strategy while keeping engagement with ROK. Off course I might be wrong, but again money trail matter, and so far I just don't see enough money trail being committed to the program. This in regards relative toward other defense projects investment in recent period.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group

The ussual flip flop on Indonesian intentions toward KF-21. I also heard talk that DI want the prototype to prepared them for License Assembly of that 48 Indonesian version of KF-21. I just can't really read or determine how big the 'attractions' by Indonesian Defense planners actualy still have toward this projects.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
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Keris FB put MinDef MIC Directorate on KF-21 participation meeting. The original post already taken down. However the original post shown there are still heated contention items on the negotiations. The actions of ROK in holding 2 DI engineers on industrial espionage charges also being use as part of contention issues.

Personaly I see this as serious negotiations being talk in Indonesia side on how to bargain on leaving the program while still gain something as results. From what I heard getting Dasault as partner for DI over KAI are getting support. Regardless they have to find something amicable to solve it. This is getting more and more embarrassing. Find something as bargain with KAI, whether building assembly line for FA-50 or KT-1. Then close the book on KF-21 as clearly Indonesian admistration heart and intentions are not on the program anymore.
 

Joe Black

Active Member
Would South Korean not consider to get Taiwan to be a partner instead. KF-21 could be Taiwan's next ADF to replace their IDF.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Would ROK want to directly challange PRC on that ? Arming Taiwan in serious challange in PRC eyes, which's why so far only US that directly want to do it. In my opinion ROK has all abilities to go alone in KF-21, taking Indonesia as junior partner more on enlarging initial market size issue.

Korean enthusiasts and media already playing the idea replacing Indonesia with Poland. In my opinion it is more realistic idea rather then Taiwan or other ASEAN members like Philippines or Malaysia. Poland already has more mature Aerospace Industry. Considering they want to increase defence spending and improving their own MIC, and Korean already have good defence relationship with them recently, perhaps it could happen. I suspect Indonesia more then willing if Poland want to take over its shares on the program.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
If ROK wants to play with PRC over Taiwan by offering KF-21, PRC can play with ROK using NK.

It is not going to happen, period. ROK not that stupid; beyond Poland, MENA countries are also prospective participants. With IOC in 2026, they have decent market to target.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Would ROK want to directly challange PRC on that ? Arming Taiwan in serious challange in PRC eyes, which's why so far only US that directly want to do it. In my opinion ROK has all abilities to go alone in KF-21, taking Indonesia as junior partner more on enlarging initial market size issue.

Korean enthusiasts and media already playing the idea replacing Indonesia with Poland. In my opinion it is more realistic idea rather then Taiwan or other ASEAN members like Philippines or Malaysia. Poland already has more mature Aerospace Industry. Considering they want to increase defence spending and improving their own MIC, and Korean already have good defence relationship with them recently, perhaps it could happen. I suspect Indonesia more then willing if Poland want to take over its shares on the program.
Could India be a partner on KF-21? India desperately needs to improve their fighter jet technology, I assume they have deeper pockets than Indonesia (?) They are very far behind China on fighter jet technology.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Could India be a partner on KF-21? India desperately needs to improve their fighter jet technology, I assume they have deeper pockets than Indonesia (?) They are very far behind China on fighter jet technology.
Not sure, I guess it depends how much India has learned from their short lived 5th gen collaboration with Russia and their Rafale acquisition. No shortage of scientific and engineering expertise either, but Indian government bureaucracy and pollie BS are definitely obstacles.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
Could India be a partner on KF-21? India desperately needs to improve their fighter jet technology, I assume they have deeper pockets than Indonesia (?) They are very far behind China on fighter jet technology.
Our Indian members will vehemently disagree with you on the technology bit. Their challenge is a function of poor execution (bureaucracy, moving goal posts by the users, chronic underfunding), less on the technology.

As for them having deeper pockets? Lol, I won't be surprised if it is like squeezing blood from stone and they would expect to own the entire IP for whatever contributions.

 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
India Hindustan actually begin licensing Jet Fighter production as similar time with Chinese Chengdu (as example). India doesn't need KF-21 they have AMCA programs, that target as 5th gen. KF-21 at this time (Blk 1) more as 4.5th + gen, and not something that will attract their interests as at this point KF-21 not providing advantage then their Su-30MKI or Rafale.

Just like @koxinga put the problems of India are Bureaucracy and their political environments. Changing goal posts that make their Tejas implementation move back more then a decade. In some ways, India and Indonesia Bureaucracy share similarities on poor execution and projects mentalities. Thus whatever problems that ROK find in Indonesia they will find also in India.

AMCA has potential will be KF-21 equivalent and in some parameters can even surpass KF-21, at least until KF-21 Blk 3 come out. India then have no interest here with KF-21 which they will see not provide advantage on their AMCA program.

So not much choices for ROK to find other potential new junior partner. Turkiye which has some talks on joining the program, choose to go their own with KAAN. The only other ASEAN member that potentially have money to replace or buy out Indonesia shares in KF-21 is Singapore. Singapore will not have interest to involve on new fighter programs. This is also what changes I suspect with Indonesian administration as they see as junior partner their position will not much difference then under license production rights.

UAE been talks and rumours before to have interest in the program, and potentially take over Indonesia shares. However seems not happening, which back to present negotiations between ROK and Indonesia. Negotiations that in my opinion increasingly contentious. Not good situations for continuous good partnerships environment.
 
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