The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[KipPotapych]

Spotted this article cited somewhere (do not recall where) a couple of days ago. I don’t think I would ever go to the Sun intentionally for a “news report”, but this one talked about the feedback about the Challengers in particular. The Sun’s journalist visited a Ukrainian training ground, with infantry and Challenger crews running exercises. A summary of the article:

- the training ground is located close to the frontline (reportedly, the Sun crew could see “the plumes of smoke from the heavy Russian air strikes”);
- the Challenger squadron commander was trained in Britain;
- the best thing he likes about that tank is the barrel and its precision (“10 times better than the T-80” he previously ran);
- the commander also mentioned that the tank has good armour, though the article indicated the donated tanks were not equipped with the “top-secret armour” add-on;
- in line with the Sun’s and Ukrainian reporting traditions, they are regularly blasting targets 4.5 km away, but the longest shot they took was… 4.5 km;
- “It is a really powerful weapon, but it all depends on how it is used.”
- the terrain hasn’t allowed for a tank-on-tank battle with the Russians (though we have seen quite a few of such duels in the videos posted by both RU and UA sources);
- most of the missions involve firing at armoured Russian positions;
- “fully-stabilized turret and gun” is praised by the crew for the ability to aim fire quickly in any direction on the move;
- the Challengers are more “spacious and comfortable” than the Ts they have been used to;
- these tanks are too big and heavy, as well as underpowered;
- struggles with mobility and maneuver across ground;
- they keep getting stuck (got stuck while taking the reporter for a ride);
- a year after the 14 tanks were delivered, only 7 are still “fighting fit”;
- one was destroyed, which we saw (the article reports that the burned out hull was recovered);
- two were badly damaged in the counteroffensive, but have since been repaired (one had to have the barrel replaced);
- reliability is a big problem: “They have been breaking from the start”;
- specifically mentioned are the rubber pads and wheels wearing out, as well as the parts in the turret and in the precision aiming are not long-lasting;
- five have broken down and they lack parts and skilled mechanics to put them back to service;
- logistics, of course, is a problem;
- a bit more of the little cues I talked about in my other posts: “chronic shortage of fresh soldiers on the front lines meant trained tank crew had been removed from their vehicles in order to dig trenches for the infantry”;
- lack of the “top-secret armour” (which adds another 12 tonnes, according to the article) is compensated for by the addition of welded armoured bars and cages around the turrets at crews’ own expense;
- the exhausted infantry was digging trenches during the exercises near by and the “battle-hardened sergeants” were firing live rounds over their heads “to make it feel terrifyingly real”;
- they had used the Challenger to terrify the Russian infantry by driving the tank directly at their trenches because they did not have the right ammunition to attack the infantry (lol?);
- the Russian/Soviet tanks are battle machines built for multiple tasks, while NATO tanks are mostly about sniping and duels (which terrain does allow for?);
- “The main problem for Challenger 2s on the battle ground is a commander who doesn’t understand what it was designed for”;
- they conclude that the tanks were built to fight the Russians and ask to send more if possible.

That’d be it for the summary. I think it is fairly clear now why these machines are not on the battlefield. A few notable pics from the article.

A Challenger firing:

Getting stuck with the reporter onboard:

“Battle-hardened sergeant” firing live rounds over the heads of the infantry personnel in training:

Not sure if this is trolling or what, but the pic they provided for “enemy’s ageing T-80 fleet”:

I joined Ukrainian soldiers in Brit Challenger 2 tank that blasts Russians

THESE are the monster Challenger 2 tanks blasting the Russian invaders in Ukraine. The Sun gained world-first access as crews unleashed the British-made tank’s devastating 120mm main gun. Soldiers …

www.thesun.co.uk

 

[Feanor]

Spotted this article cited somewhere (do not recall where) a couple of days ago. I don’t think I would ever go to the Sun intentionally for a “news report”, but this one talked about the feedback about the Challengers in particular. The Sun’s journalist visited a Ukrainian training ground, with infantry and Challenger crews running exercises. A summary of the article:

- the training ground is located close to the frontline (reportedly, the Sun crew could see “the plumes of smoke from the heavy Russian air strikes”);
- the Challenger squadron commander was trained in Britain;
- the best thing he likes about that tank is the barrel and its precision (“10 times better than the T-80” he previously ran);
- the commander also mentioned that the tank has good armour, though the article indicated the donated tanks were not equipped with the “top-secret armour” add-on;
- in line with the Sun’s and Ukrainian reporting traditions, they are regularly blasting targets 4.5 km away, but the longest shot they took was… 4.5 km;
- “It is a really powerful weapon, but it all depends on how it is used.”
- the terrain hasn’t allowed for a tank-on-tank battle with the Russians (though we have seen quite a few of such duels in the videos posted by both RU and UA sources);
- most of the missions involve firing at armoured Russian positions;
- “fully-stabilized turret and gun” is praised by the crew for the ability to aim fire quickly in any direction on the move;
- the Challengers are more “spacious and comfortable” than the Ts they have been used to;
- these tanks are too big and heavy, as well as underpowered;
- struggles with mobility and maneuver across ground;
- they keep getting stuck (got stuck while taking the reporter for a ride);
- a year after the 14 tanks were delivered, only 7 are still “fighting fit”;
- one was destroyed, which we saw (the article reports that the burned out hull was recovered);
- two were badly damaged in the counteroffensive, but have since been repaired (one had to have the barrel replaced);
- reliability is a big problem: “They have been breaking from the start”;
- specifically mentioned are the rubber pads and wheels wearing out, as well as the parts in the turret and in the precision aiming are not long-lasting;
- five have broken down and they lack parts and skilled mechanics to put them back to service;
- logistics, of course, is a problem;
- a bit more of the little cues I talked about in my other posts: “chronic shortage of fresh soldiers on the front lines meant trained tank crew had been removed from their vehicles in order to dig trenches for the infantry”;
- lack of the “top-secret armour” (which adds another 12 tonnes, according to the article) is compensated for by the addition of welded armoured bars and cages around the turrets at crews’ own expense;
- the exhausted infantry was digging trenches during the exercises near by and the “battle-hardened sergeants” were firing live rounds over their heads “to make it feel terrifyingly real”;
- they had used the Challenger to terrify the Russian infantry by driving the tank directly at their trenches because they did not have the right ammunition to attack the infantry (lol?);
- the Russian/Soviet tanks are battle machines built for multiple tasks, while NATO tanks are mostly about sniping and duels (which terrain does allow for?);
- “The main problem for Challenger 2s on the battle ground is a commander who doesn’t understand what it was designed for”;
- they conclude that the tanks were built to fight the Russians and ask to send more if possible.

That’d be it for the summary. I think it is fairly clear now why these machines are not on the battlefield. A few notable pics from the article.

A Challenger firing:

Getting stuck with the reporter onboard:

“Battle-hardened sergeant” firing live rounds over the heads of the infantry personnel in training:

Not sure if this is trolling or what, but the pic they provided for “enemy’s ageing T-80 fleet”:

I joined Ukrainian soldiers in Brit Challenger 2 tank that blasts Russians

THESE are the monster Challenger 2 tanks blasting the Russian invaders in Ukraine. The Sun gained world-first access as crews unleashed the British-made tank’s devastating 120mm main gun. Soldiers …

www.thesun.co.uk

They're not trolling, they're the Sun. I.e. incompetent. That sergeant though, looks like a real professional. The only fault I can find is that he isn't holding his AK sideways.

 

[Fredled]

They're not trolling, they're the Sun. I.e. incompetent. That sergeant though, looks like a real professional. The only fault I can find is that he isn't holding his AK sideways.

I'm sure it's not the first time he fires an AK, nevertheless, the way he does on the picture is extremely unsafe. I hope he is using rubber bullets or special low power rounds for training.

 

[Feanor]

I'm sure it's not the first time he fires an AK, nevertheless, the way he does on the picture is extremely unsafe. I hope he is using rubber bullets or special low power rounds for training.

Safety and following procedures is mostly an issue of discipline, and given that he's the NCO overseeing the training, self-discipline. It's probably not that it's a lack of experience.

 

[Fredled]

Orban + Trump
When I said that these two friends are dangerous, it's not because of what they would do but because of what they will not do:

He (Trump) will not give a penny into the Ukraine-Russia war and therefore the war will end. As it is obvious that Ukraine on its own cannot stand on its feet.

If the Americans do not give weapons and money, and the Europeans do not give money, the war will end.

The conditions for ending the war and maintaining security in Europe are another issue. Peace must first be established, and Trump has the methods to achieve this.

I really wonder what method or magic wand Donald Trump has to end this war. The US doesn't give any penny to the Russian Army already. So what money are they talking about?
____________________________
Ukrainian Navy:

As Ukrinform reported earlier, during an official visit to Türkiye, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine saw the Hetman Ivan Mazepa corvette, which is being built for Ukraine’s Navy in a shipyard near Istanbul and also inspected the construction of the second Ada-type corvette, which was named after Hetman Ivan Vyhovskyi.

so that Ukraine became a fairly strong naval power state capable of defending itself and ensuring the safety of international maritime navigation in our waters

My eyes are rolling when I read these comments. What's the life expectancy of these two ships once they reach Ukrainian newly anexed Russian waters?
IMO it would be suicide to use them now.
_______________________________
Oba!
Here is a very spectacular video of a tanker blowed off by an Ukrainian strike. One big explosion straight on the command room. Then a large safety boat is falling from the sky and then is seen floating on the water near the tanker.

The tanker seems stranded. They don't say where it was. Neither where this tanker comes from. Was this tanker left stranded after the blowing up of the Kakovka dam?
link

 

[Larry_L]

The latest Ukrainian UAV strikes are at airfields. It is unclear what was targeted at St Petersburg, but the Taganrog strike was obviously to deter A-50 repairs and upgrades. There was a claim of one A-50 hit, although confirmation is not available. There is an indication of a possible scorch mark where an aircraft was parked on February 29th, and not present March 9th. There is also indication of one miss of almost a kilometer, and some structural damage to buildings.

Taganrog:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1766561016173699527

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1766356625697157399

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1766611891818823885

Liutyi UAV is Responsible For Attacks on Taganrog, russians Assume: Drone with 1,000 km Range Finally in Action | Defense Express

Very little is known about this development of Ukraine's state-run long-range weapon project, so here's the summary

en.defence-ua.com

St. Petersburg:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1766824740264546551

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1766841818233159986

https://twitter.com/LXSummer1/status/1766847738195357803

https://twitter.com/maria_drutska/status/1766859372150304893

 

[Feanor]

Orban + Trump
When I said that these two friends are dangerous, it's not because of what they would do but because of what they will not do:


I really wonder what method or magic wand Donald Trump has to end this war. The US doesn't give any penny to the Russian Army already. So what money are they talking about?

You're kidding? He means he will cut all funding to Ukraine, obviously. Right now that's the side that's refusing to negotiate.

My eyes are rolling when I read these comments. What's the life expectancy of these two ships once they reach Ukrainian newly anexed Russian waters?
IMO it would be suicide to use them now.

I guess we will see. Russia hasn't had to strike a modern vessel with decent air defense in many decades. Coordinating a maritime strike is not that easy. If anything their life expectancy in Ukrainian bases will be poor, since a static ship is easier to find and hit.

 

[koxinga]

I guess we will see. Russia hasn't had to strike a modern vessel with decent air defense in many decades. Coordinating a maritime strike is not that easy. If anything their life expectancy in Ukrainian bases will be poor, since a static ship is easier to find and hit.

It will be a "trophy" target for RusNavy for sure.

On a side note, the Malaysians went around to enquire if Ukraine or Pakistan were willing to sell them their under-construction Milgems as they are desperate for new hulls and their LMS batch II program (e.g new build, probably Milgems as the current administration under Anwar is pro-Turkiye) will take awhile. Predictably, they were rejected by both countries.

 

[Redlands18]

Ukrainians Criticize French Equipment: "Four-Person Crew Has Already Died" (msn.com)
Dear Ukrainian Army
The 16-17t AMX-10RC is not by any definition a Tank and should definitely not be used in frontal assaults.

 

[KipPotapych]

They're not trolling, they're the Sun. I.e. incompetent.

Yeah, no doubt. It was some good info though that isn’t available anywhere else.

That sergeant though, looks like a real professional. The only fault I can find is that he isn't holding his AK sideways.

Looks like he is doing his part to encourage people enlisting. Crazy stuff though, seriously. When I read the words “firing live ammo over their heads in order to make it terrifyingly real”, or whatever it said, I thought it was nuts, but imagined something else entirely. I usually don’t pay much attention to the graphics in the articles unless they are meaningful, but then I saw that photo, lol. I was so far off in my head. I wonder if he yells while firing too or only when switching the mag.

Ukrainians Criticize French Equipment: "Four-Person Crew Has Already Died" (msn.com)
Dear Ukrainian Army
The 16-17t AMX-10RC is not by any definition a Tank and should definitely not be used in frontal assaults.

I think it’s a rehashed article or rehashed ”interview”. If recall correctly, they started the counteroffensive with these rolling in front of their columns, I don’t recall where, and they immediately lost two of these, then one or two more. They then complained about the lack of armour, the entire crew dying, etc. Pretty sure I read the exact same words and maybe even the call sign of the commander talking about it. Surely it was posted here last summer. I do not think any of these vehicles were seen ever since, so they must have learned. Or maybe I am wrong and some never learn? I am not discounting that possibility either. I am also fairly certain that there was an article or two (posted here?) about the AMXs not having been designed to operate in conditions such as Ukraine has to offer and, thus, reliability issues.


A couple of things I saw that were interesting:

A very neat video of gliding FABS being dropped from a SU-34:

bmpd

Эффектное видео Министерства обороны России, демонстрирующее сброс управляемых бомб с УМПК с фронтового бомбардировщика Су-34

t.me

Allegedly a video of the Ukrainian MiG talked about earlier being hit:

bmpd

Эпичный момент сбития украинского МиГ-29 под Покровском. По одной версии, самолет противника был сбит дружественным огнем украинского ЗРК, по другой - российским истребителем. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

 

[Feanor]

Ukrainians Criticize French Equipment: "Four-Person Crew Has Already Died" (msn.com)
Dear Ukrainian Army
The 16-17t AMX-10RC is not by any definition a Tank and should definitely not be used in frontal assaults.

Well... when you need tanks, and you're given AMX-10s, you use what you have. Remember Russia is using MT-LBs as ersatz APCs, and both sides are using S-60s as ersatz IFV fire support. Russia has used T-62s and 55s as SP Arty, and Ukraine has used their MBTs in a similar manner. Overall this war is one of using what you have not what you need.

It will be a "trophy" target for RusNavy for sure.

On a side note, the Malaysians went around to enquire if Ukraine or Pakistan were willing to sell them their under-construction Milgems as they are desperate for new hulls and their LMS batch II program (e.g new build, probably Milgems as the current administration under Anwar is pro-Turkiye) will take awhile. Predictably, they were rejected by both countries.

You know, the more I think about this the more I wonder if it wouldn't make sense for Ukraine to agree. Especially in light of reduced support from the west. How many armored vehicles could they buy with the money spent on those corvettes?

It appears after one failed border assault Ukraine didn't give up and tried again, losing many vehicles across several locations. We have confirmed loss of a T-64BV mod'17, a BMP-1, BREM-1, an IMR-2, and other vehicles. At least a couple of M113s were also used but no footage of them destroyed so far. Russian sources are linking this to the upcoming elections in Russia.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Набег на Белгородскую область

Набег на Белгородскую область Сегодня утром противник предпринял повторную попытку прорваться через границу на территорию России в Белгородской и Курской областях. На прошедших выходных он уже предпринимал такую попытку, но подготовка к заходу на нашу территорию была своевременно вскрыта нашей…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Colonelcassad

И еще одна машина тиктокеров маминого пирожка на границе Белгородской области. Есть сообщения, что недалеко от границы пожгли еще несколько БМП "Брэдли" и несколько танков (ждем фото/видео)

t.me

Colonelcassad

И еще. Брошенная техника украинских тик-токеров на границе Белгородской области. Мамин пирожок сегодня в ударе.

t.me

EDIT: Interesting point, Russian conscripts were involved in the fighting from the Russian VDV side. They allegedly took no casualties. It's not clear if they were involved in front line combat or were for example manning artillery or launching UAVs.

Colonelcassad

Сегодня при попытке проникновения ДРГ противника в Белгородскую область в бою приняли участие и солдаты-срочники из частей ВДВ. При отражении атаки на Тёткино отличились срочники ВДВ Во время попытки украинских террористических формирований проникнуть на территорию Курской области вместе с...

t.me

EDIT2: It appears Ukraine's cross-border attacks were accompanied by strikes against various targets on the Russian side of the border, In Belgorod region this includes the Belgorod city administration building, a hospital, a kindergarten, several residences, and a store. Overall civilian casualties reported so far are light (single digits). In Orel region they hit a fuel reservoir, and in Voronezh region a warning about potential air attacks was announced but no attacks reported.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Украинские террористы нанесли удар по Белгородской области, повреждены больница, детсад, дома, ранена женщина, - губернатор ⠀ ▪️У женщины от обстрела осколочное ранение лица, рану обработали на месте, госпитализация не потребовалась.⠀ ▪️В городе есть различные повреждения шести частных...

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

And more piles of links to mostly the same footage as above, posting to preserve. Attacks reportedly took place in Belgorod and Kursk regions.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️ Пылающая вражеская БМП, пытавшаяся прорваться в Белгородскую область Здесь же были разбиты американские БТРы M113. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Новые кадры с разбитой НАТОвской техникой в районе н.п. Сподарюшино Белгородской области ▪️Уничтожены американские БМП М113, Брэдли и личный состав террористических формирований нацистов. ▪️Понеся существенные потери, противник отброшен от границы Российской Федерации, прорыв на территорию...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️ Кадры уничтоженной техники врага в приграничной зоне у н.п. Нехотеевка Белгородской области ▪️Прорыв украинских ДРГ не допущен. Диверсионные группы боевиков уничтожены на погранпереходе. На кадрах видны подбитая техника и убегающие террористы, уносящие раненых. ▪️Подразделениями армии...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ГУР заявило об атаке на Белгородскую и Курскую области, завязались бои на границе ▪️Как утверждает ГУР, это совместная операция, в которой участвуют не регулярные части, а объединения, набранные из боевиков - предателей из России (РДК, "Свобода России", "Сибирский батальон"). ▪️Украинские...

t.me

 

[KipPotapych]

^ The “partisans” are claiming they are advancing every half-an-hour to an hour and the Russians are retreating. The only evidence so far provided is one BTRs being hit by a FPV on the Russian territory and another BTR claimed to be hit (“burning grass” type of evidence). Sorry, Twitter link for the source (that also claims no actual evidence of “incursion” so far exists):

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1767463849865715858

“Partisan” Baranovsky’s interview (in Russian/Ukrainian):

Basically he is saying they came well prepared, are constantly advancing and destroying Russian armour and personnel (while they know how many vehicles they destroyed - looks like one - the number of troops they killed is “murky” and they will have to specify that later); the civilians are “hiding in the basements” because the Russian army indiscriminately fires at anyone; too soon to say if anyone from the Russian side will join their ranks, but usually they have buckers of willing individuals after similar raids; the Russian MoD is panicking because they did not expect such a development and opening of the second front at the Russian border and the “partisans” will continue developing their tactical success; he is calling on people of Russia (on the the Ukrainian TV channel) to join their ranks, provide them with intel on the location of military equipment and installations, etc. In another video the same guy said that they were holding positions on the liberated Russian territory and aren’t going anywhere.

Note that they clearly have surveillance drones and the lack of footage, along with the footage and reports presented by the Russians, suggests that this has so far been an epic fail by the “partisans” and a clown face emoji wouldn’t be out of place to accompany the video cited above. He said they are going to continue though, so we will see what happens.

Edit: Ukrainian sources in a way confirm the fail:

Dnipro OSINT | РЕЗЕРВ

РЕЗЕРВНИЙ КАНАЛ

t.me

Says something along the lines of these operations are fun, but the fun shouldn’t cost us too much, and that they should not be considered useless because they may somehow reduce the activity of infiltration groups in the area.

КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno

Честно кажучи, похуй, що там відбувається з переходом кордону й подібним. Якщо це правда, то нехай хоч техніку нашу не проїбуть, як в минулий раз.

t.me

Says that he doesn’t give a f*** about what is happening at the border and the like, but if it is true, he hopes they won’t lose the equipment like last time. A bit later follows a post with some of the lost equipment.

 

[Fredled]

The latest Ukrainian UAV strikes are at airfields. It is unclear what was targeted at St Petersburg, but the Taganrog strike was obviously to deter A-50 repairs and upgrades. There was a claim of one A-50 hit, although confirmation is not available. There is an indication of a possible scorch mark where an aircraft was parked on February 29th, and not present March 9th. There is also indication of one miss of almost a kilometer, and some structural damage to buildings.

I wonder why the Russians would choose Taganrog to repair their rarefied A-50 instead of a safer location?
But Russians have made things more stupid before...

 

[KipPotapych]

I wonder why the Russians would choose Taganrog to repair their rarefied A-50 instead of a safer location?
But Russians have made things more stupid before...

They are now claiming that they hit two (!) A-50s. Instead of the article, I will cite a tweet by Rob Lee:

Whether they hit any at all is going to remain a question though.

 

[Fredled]

You're kidding? He means he will cut all funding to Ukraine, obviously.

No, I was not kidding. The war can stop only when funding for the Special Military Operation is cut. Cutting funding to Ukraine will not stop the Special Military Operation. Moreover, Trump has the power to cut only half of the war fund for Ukraine while Europe has the power to double it.

Right now that's the side that's refusing to negotiate.

It's not a question of negotiation. It's a question of respecting established sovereign borders for the sake of stability.
Of course that Ukraine refuses to negotiate: They are being invaded. Beside that, nobody knows what Putin really wants. He has never fixed the limits of the territories he wish to annex. For the moment, he seems to annex territories as far as his troops are able to advance.
If we knew what territories exactly he is interested in, Ukraine could eventually offer a friendly land swap agreement. Like giving Belarus to Ukraine in exchange for Crimea, Zaporizha and Mariupol. On a per value basis, that would be advantageous to Russia. Belarus would be compensated by de facto joining the EU. But such ideas are not even thinkable for the Russian leadership.

I guess we will see. Russia hasn't had to strike a modern vessel with decent air defense in many decades. Coordinating a maritime strike is not that easy. If anything their life expectancy in Ukrainian bases will be poor, since a static ship is easier to find and hit.

As always, Russians will fail miserably at the beginning, Then they will learn how to cope with this new data. Like dropping a few dozen ballistic missiles on the area where it was last spotted. Then repeat until the corvettes are sunk.

Ukrainians Criticize French Equipment: "Four-Person Crew Has Already Died" (msn.com)
Dear Ukrainian Army
The 16-17t AMX-10RC is not by any definition a Tank and should definitely not be used in frontal assaults.

Well... when you need tanks, and you're given AMX-10s, you use what you have. Remember Russia is using MT-LBs as ersatz APCs, and both sides are using S-60s as ersatz IFV fire support. Russia has used T-62s and 55s as SP Arty, and Ukraine has used their MBTs in a similar manner. Overall this war is one of using what you have not what you need.

And that's how you lose wars. By wasting resources in missuses.
The AMX-10RC is, as his name indicates, a gun on wheels (RC = "Roue Canon"). It's designed to move quickly from one place to another and offer fire support from a distance.

However...

During an artillery bombardment, a shell exploded near the vehicle, shrapnel penetrated the armour and detonated the ammunition supply. The four-person crew inside was killed,

If sharpnels can penetrate the armour, should it still be called armour?
Either the commander didn't explain properly what happened either the AMX armour sucks. IMO, the shell exploded very close or under the vehicle. I can't imagine that sharpnels can penetrate even light armour.

The tank-like turret may also let you believe that it's heavily armoured. But I imagine the crew knows it's not.

 

[Fredled]

^ The “partisans” are claiming they are advancing every half-an-hour to an hour and the Russians are retreating. The only evidence so far provided is one BTRs being hit by a FPV on the Russian territory and another BTR claimed to be hit (“burning grass” type of evidence). Sorry, Twitter link for the source (that also claims no actual evidence of “incursion” so far exists):
......

КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno

Честно кажучи, похуй, що там відбувається з переходом кордону й подібним. Якщо це правда, то нехай хоч техніку нашу не проїбуть, як в минулий раз.

t.me

Says that he doesn’t give a f*** about what is happening at the border and the like, but if it is true, he hopes they won’t lose the equipment like last time. A bit later follows a post with some of the lost equipment.

I don;t believe they will go very far this time neither. IMO, it's just diversive actions to make Russians feel nervous. The Wagner rebellion had been crushed in less than 48 hours. And they had much more fire power than these Free Russian Liberation Armies (or whatever they call them).

Last time they entered Russia with one BTR and retreated after it was hit by an helicopter strike and a few artillery salvos. But the mere fact that they are trying again shows that they are not short of resources. And maybe this time they will be better prepared.

 

[koxinga]

Cutting funding to Ukraine will not stop the Special Military Operation. Moreover, Trump has the power to cut only half of the war fund for Ukraine while Europe has the power to double it.

If Europe had the ability to double the funding to Ukraine to cover any anticipated American drop, it should have been done so NOW so that the war can end earlier.

If it is a question of political push (e.g a Trump withdrawing aid), I would question how long it will take for Europe to step up. It is critical.
Just a few months of delay of American aid has already had an impact on the battlefield. Do you think Europe can double it's current level of aid, financial and military... in 6 months?

It's not a question of negotiation. It's a question of respecting established sovereign borders for the sake of stability. Of course that Ukraine refuses to negotiate: They are being invaded.

No, it is a question on the continued ability (economical, industrial, military) to wage war. No soverign state will stand for being invaded, but the ability to defy, defend your cause ultimately determine the outcome.

Polemics like "we will fight to the end and we will recover every inch of our lands" is fine for the masses, but needs to be match with ability. War ends when one side loss that ability, regardless of how they feel about it.

Beside that, nobody knows what Putin really wants.

There is a difference between what he (Putin) wants/ambitions (the next village, Ukrainian city, driving to to Kiev, the border of Poland) versus what he can achieve with the current state of his armed forces at his disposal today. The Russians have some tactical victories, but they are nowhere at their Feb 2022 strengths.

Unless there is some kind of a dramatic breakthrough in the next big offensive, the reality of a prolong stalemate will force both sides to consider that they can't achieve their aims on the battlefield and reach for the table.

 

[Feanor]

^ The “partisans” are claiming they are advancing every half-an-hour to an hour and the Russians are retreating. The only evidence so far provided is one BTRs being hit by a FPV on the Russian territory and another BTR claimed to be hit (“burning grass” type of evidence). Sorry, Twitter link for the source (that also claims no actual evidence of “incursion” so far exists):

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1767463849865715858

“Partisan” Baranovsky’s interview (in Russian/Ukrainian):

Basically he is saying they came well prepared, are constantly advancing and destroying Russian armour and personnel (while they know how many vehicles they destroyed - looks like one - the number of troops they killed is “murky” and they will have to specify that later); the civilians are “hiding in the basements” because the Russian army indiscriminately fires at anyone; too soon to say if anyone from the Russian side will join their ranks, but usually they have buckers of willing individuals after similar raids; the Russian MoD is panicking because they did not expect such a development and opening of the second front at the Russian border and the “partisans” will continue developing their tactical success; he is calling on people of Russia (on the the Ukrainian TV channel) to join their ranks, provide them with intel on the location of military equipment and installations, etc. In another video the same guy said that they were holding positions on the liberated Russian territory and aren’t going anywhere.

Note that they clearly have surveillance drones and the lack of footage, along with the footage and reports presented by the Russians, suggests that this has so far been an epic fail by the “partisans” and a clown face emoji wouldn’t be out of place to accompany the video cited above. He said they are going to continue though, so we will see what happens.

Edit: Ukrainian sources in a way confirm the fail:

Dnipro OSINT | РЕЗЕРВ

РЕЗЕРВНИЙ КАНАЛ

t.me

Says something along the lines of these operations are fun, but the fun shouldn’t cost us too much, and that they should not be considered useless because they may somehow reduce the activity of infiltration groups in the area.

КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno

Честно кажучи, похуй, що там відбувається з переходом кордону й подібним. Якщо це правда, то нехай хоч техніку нашу не проїбуть, як в минулий раз.

t.me

Says that he doesn’t give a f*** about what is happening at the border and the like, but if it is true, he hopes they won’t lose the equipment like last time. A bit later follows a post with some of the lost equipment.

It appears to complete garbage. Apparent footage from inside Tetkino including interviews with locals reveals no Ukrainian forces, and regular civilian life.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Кадры из посёлка Тёткино Курской области, к которому сегодня утром пытались прорваться спецгруппы ГРУ из неонацистов ▪️В посёлке городского типа продолжается мирная жизнь: спокойно работают магазины, учреждения и общественный транспорт. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

There appears to be a circus in social media, presumably Ukrainian fakes, trying to claim that there is some sort of major invasion taking place, with basically no supporting footage of any kind. And this in 2024...

Colonelcassad

Вбросы ЦИПСО, которые вбрасывались в комментариях на канале в течение дня во время попыток снять тик-ток в Белгороде. Их "качество" можете сами оценить.

t.me

 

[Feanor]

No, I was not kidding. The war can stop only when funding for the Special Military Operation is cut. Cutting funding to Ukraine will not stop the Special Military Operation. Moreover, Trump has the power to cut only half of the war fund for Ukraine while Europe has the power to double it.

You're missing the point entirely. You were seemingly confused about what Trump was saying, I provided clarification. If your point is that Trump is wrong, either mistaken or lying, well... it wouldn't be the first time, or the 10th time, or even the 100th time. But the correct interpretation of what he is saying is what I said.

Secondly the war can stop under very many circumstances that don't involve Russian funds being cut. For example, Ukraine could win on the battlefield (unlikely but you can't tell me it's impossible). Ukraine could run out of population as people continue to flee and losses keep mounting and collapsing lines could allow Russia to win on the battlefield. NATO could intervene directly, Russia preps the nukes, and we have another Carribean Missile Crisis (Ukrainian Missile Crisis?) followed by a negotiated armistice not dissimilar from the Korean War. NATO could intervene directly and Russia could nuke Paris, London, Berlin, and Washington, getting nuked in response, and we're all left scooping tinned pork pate in the ruins of what was once our civilization (I'm being somewhat sarcastic). Ukraine's population could get fed up, kick out Zelensky, and elect someone who will negotiate peace. Russian population could get fed up, kick out Putin & Co. and elect someone who will withdraw unilaterally. We don't know when this war will stop, but cutting Russian funds is certainly not the only way it can stop. Your remark has more to do with your personal bias then with any objective assessment of the situation.

It's not a question of negotiation. It's a question of respecting established sovereign borders for the sake of stability.
Of course that Ukraine refuses to negotiate: They are being invaded. Beside that, nobody knows what Putin really wants. He has never fixed the limits of the territories he wish to annex. For the moment, he seems to annex territories as far as his troops are able to advance.
If we knew what territories exactly he is interested in, Ukraine could eventually offer a friendly land swap agreement. Like giving Belarus to Ukraine in exchange for Crimea, Zaporizha and Mariupol. On a per value basis, that would be advantageous to Russia. Belarus would be compensated by de facto joining the EU. But such ideas are not even thinkable for the Russian leadership.

If someone whats to know what "Putin wants", or to be more accurate, what Russia's negotiating position is, one has to sit down and have negotiations. Ukraine's refusal makes this impossible, yet there is near consensus that this war will end at the negotiating table with a complete victory by either side unlikely. The idea that existing borders are the sacred cow of stability also isn't particular true. Under established existing sovereign borders, China owns Taiwan. But America is helping Taiwan against China. I won't touch the issues of Kosovo, Northern Cyprus, and many others. Supporting Ukrainian territorial integrity has nothing to do with stability, there are completely different principles at work here. Stability is over, whether anyone wanted it to end or not. We are entering (have entered?) a different period in history.

And that's how you lose wars. By wasting resources in missuses.
The AMX-10RC is, as his name indicates, a gun on wheels (RC = "Roue Canon"). It's designed to move quickly from one place to another and offer fire support from a distance.

If your leadership has committed to a front attack in Zaporozhye and south-western Donetsk region, your only option is to bring your gun on wheels or not bring it. What gives you the better chance of success? Ersatz is better then nothing. Maybe not by much, but often by quite a bit.

 

[Fredled]

If Europe had the ability to double the funding to Ukraine to cover any anticipated American drop, it should have been done so NOW so that the war can end earlier.

I agree. The problem was that everyone expected that the war effort the West had provided would be enough to discourage, if not Putin, the Russian military from staying in Ukraine.
Secondly it's a coordinated effort among NATO allies. If the US doesn't participate anymore, others will have to double their investment.

Polemics like "we will fight to the end and we will recover every inch of our lands" is fine for the masses, but needs to be match with ability

I also agree. But it can take a while until all resistance movements are suppressed. Chechens fought two wars against Russia and their only funds came from private donations from Saudi Arabia and Qatar. There are multiple instances when completely defeated countries still fight guerrilla wars years later. You will always find somebody somewhere willing to fund these guerillas wars even when the government officially capitulated and the population gave up.

That's why I'm not optimistic about an end of the war in the event of an Ukrainian capitulation.

@Feanor My point was that no one has the ability to stop the war in 48h, not even the President of the US. What Orban said was stupidity perpetuating this myth.

Of course that Trump talked about funding for Ukraine. My point was that it's not funds to Ukraine that matter but the decision from the Russian leadership.
If Putin's advisers and ministers start to disagree with him and don't want to waste more money into the Special Military Operation or want to limit the expenses, then the war has a chance to end.

If the West completely stops funding the Ukrainian war, 1/ I's not a given that the war will stop and 2/ we have no garantee whatsoever that war will not continue beyond Ukraine.
Nazy Germany didn't stop at annexing Austria and Slovakia.

If someone whats to know what "Putin wants", or to be more accurate, what Russia's negotiating position is, one has to sit down and have negotiations. Ukraine's refusal makes this impossible,

I disagree, Putin/Russia could make public what they want and we would know where to start. You don't need negotiations to know what they want. So far Putin has only talked about abstract concepts like demilitarization, denazification and protecting Russian minorities. Sometimes hinting, or more than just hinting, at the eradication of the Ukrainian state. He never posed territorial claims. He never said "I want this and this". He only said that the recently annexed territories have always been part of Russia and will be for ever and that it's not negotiable. But he never put a geographical limit to his vision of the Russian borders. In his mind, Russia has no border. As long as they are Russians somewhere, it's Russia.

So what can be negotiated, in your opinion?

The idea that existing borders are the sacred cow of stability also isn't particular true. Under established existing sovereign borders, China owns Taiwan. But America is helping Taiwan against China. I won't touch the issues of Kosovo, Northern Cyprus, and many others.

There is no miracle receipt against war. But respecting borders established by the UN is a good start and has been effective. Even in the Middle East, and the Syria-Iraq-Kurdistan triangle, borders are still respected and no country is trying to invade the other. They use proxies, political influence. OK. But they don't invade.

The wars after the split-up of Yugoslavia happened precisely because there were no recognised border and no recognised entities. (And because some of them decided to use violence).

Nobody has recognised Taiwan as an independent state, even thought the West attitude to this issue is borderline, so to speak.

There are no recognised border for the Palestinian state, and war there is endless.

Borders are not sacred cows, but they are sacred.