The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

seaspear

Well-Known Member
I'm not sure what the power setup for Russia is, but 80 percent is by fossil fuels and hydroelectricity ,and if such power much of Russia's manufacturing of war materials I would of thought a priority to target ,unless of course such plants are powered by nuclear
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
The website added information on its own, and even if we consider purely Ukrainian sources, 400,000 killed and wounded(official ukrainian sources) is not so unrealistic. According to leaked documents from American intelligence in the spring of 2023, they estimated Russia's losses at 43,000 killed (not including Wagner and the LDNR), with a ratio of killed to wounded at 1:4( Ukrainian losses 18k with 1:6 ). Then there was Bahmut with 20,000 killed and Avdiivka with 16,000 killed according to statements from a Russian military correspondent, Even if we don't consider other losses, this would already be at least 80,000 killed and over 320,000 wounded. . Therefore, even if the figure of 400,000 killed and wounded is exaggerated, I don't think it's by much
That website has identical numbers to the UA MoD numbers and the reason they add the “wounded” is because the Ukrainian MoD used to specify the number (the currently 400 whatever thousand) as “killed” or something of that nature (not killed per se, but something that suggested exactly that). I have no idea what they are doing now because I do not follow (the same is true for the RU MoD), but that is how it used to be. They are also assuming the 3:1 ratio for wounded to killed, so if you take their one million whatever wounded and divide it by three, you will get exactly the number of “killed”. Ok, I looked and now the MoD reports as total losses (their facebook post on the subject of losses from a couple of days ago); you will note that the rest of the numbers are identical (plus the new losses and less the “wounded”).

What you are doing is simply a mental exercise. We can go deeper in this mental exercise and say that, for example, the documents were leaked in March (I think?) or so, closer to the end of the Bakhmut offensive, so how many of the presumed 20,000 were included in the 43,000 is unknown. Furthermore, it wasn’t 43,000 but rather a range between 35,500 and 43,000 of departed personnel and the total causalities (killed and wounded) between 189,500 and 223,000. Just in case, a source to the numbers (the first google-provided result):


All we know about the 20,000 in Bakhmut is what the now departed Progozhin himself said, also mentioning 40,000 wounded (a ridiculously high 1:2 ratio). Whether any of this is true we do not know, but the killed to wounded ratio suggests it isn’t necessarily the case. I wrote a long time ago in this very thread (or the Russia thread?) that it seems like if his mouth is open -> he is lying, so we cannot know with any reasonable degree of certainty if this is the case. Note, however, that the British intel has used these numbers for Bakhmut since. Source for the numbers (first google search result):


Whether the leaked document itself is valid also remains questionable. According to the same leak, the Ukrainian casualties were 124,500-131,000 (including 16,500-17,000 killed in action). In my opinion, Bakhmut (a good chunk of it) must have been included in these numbers in order for them to make a fair sense. But we can disregard this point entirely. Note that the EU intel report last May suggested that the leaked American intel report overestimated the actual numbers for the UA losses and placed them at 13,000 killed and 35,000 wounded.

Next, is the 16,000 you provide for Avdiivka. Are you referring to the guy that reportedly committed suicide? Moroz or Morz or something like that? Pretty sure he is the only one I heard this number from (or referenced to). This is the same guy who predicted (in the early spring last year?) the Ukrainians breaking through the Russian defense lines once the (summer) counteroffensive begins because the best RU units were lost in Bakhmut (or something like that), or the catastrophic situation for the RU in the summer, revolution in Russia, etc, right? He also said that the UAF casually retreated from Avdiivka, with minimal casualties, to the well-prepared defensive line just outside of it. I will post the links to everything written above if necessary if this is the same guy. Pretty sure this is. It should be mentioned that the same guy also said that Ukraine permanently lost 7,000 in Avdiivka as well. If we are to believe the 16,000, the 7,000 should be taken just as valid. This, in turn, suggests that the Ukrainians sustained 2.3 kia for every Russian troop killed. This took place in the best circumstances due to defending the existing fortifications in Avdiivka (the reported lack of ammunition was not ideal). This takes us back to the leaked US intel and, according to the reported UA numbers, this should put us at 38-39K Russians killed, provided Ukraine fought in the most favourable circumstances throughout the entire war, which, of course, wasn’t the case.

Why wasn’t it the case? Well, first of all, Russia has had a significant artillery advantage for a greater part of this war and the artillery is what kills in a war like this. Russia has had an advantage in FPVs for a long time now (sources posted by me in previous posts), which is also what kills in this war. Furthermore, Russia has the air superiority to some (great?) degree, which also makes a difference. And so on.

We can also continue this mental exercise and provide even greater numbers. For example, according to this guy (sorry, Twitter link), a commander from the famous Chosen Company, the Russians lost “100k WIA&KIA easily” in Avdiivka. Moreover, he states that “deaths only wise, Avdiivka was likely 2x worse for the Russians than Bahkmut.” However, he also precedes that by “casualty wise (WIA&KIA) Bahkmut was likely higher.” That puts us in a real doozy as far as numbers are concerned because he implies that RU lost at least 40,000 in killed personnel in Avdiivka, as well as over 60,000 wounded, but now Prigozhin's numbers do not make any sense because this guy completely contradicts it (lower total, but over 100,000, and double the killed). Put another way, according to this guy, in Avdiivka alone the Russians lost at least 1/5 of all their personnel combined situated “in and around Ukraine” as per Budanov (sorry for the Twitter link again, but it is easier for me in this post), according to whom there are “510,000 military personnel in and around Ukraine and has been able to recruit about 30,000 a month." Of course, the commander from Chosen also describes something reminiscent of the Commando movie with Arnold Schwarzenegger in his tweet where he talks about all these numbers.

Then we can refer to the numbers Zelensky provided, which are 31,000 and 180,000 soldiers killed for the Ukrainian and Russian sides, respectively. He also said that the total number of losses in this war for Russia stood at 500,000. Source, just in case (the first google search result):


First of all, he directly contradicted the numbers provided in the “briefs” of his own Ministry of Defense at the same time. Never mind that (see the EU report article cited above) 10 or so months ago the Ukrainians claimed that 185,000 Russians were killed and 555,000 were wounded. Second, he maintained that Russia loses six troops for every Ukrainian soldier (killed). Again, this number is completely unreasonable. Like I already said, Russia dominates in air, artillery, and UAVs departments, at least, for the better part of the war. They also absolutely dominate in their defensive engineering. He also suggested that more than 1 Russian is killed for the two wounded. That’s not exactly reasonable either.

Then we have a whole bunch of sort of little cues from both sides, mostly from the Ukrainian side though simply due to the media accessibility, such as 60 men left and only 15 came back, half of them wounded (arbitrary numbers), 15 left but only four survived, etc. I posted plenty of those reports here previously, including articles by Kiev Post, Kiev Independent, Politico, Washington Post, New York Times, etc. Reference for the 4 out of 15, for example (Twitter citing an article I posted and quoted here previously). These reports have been abundant and the reporters certainly aren’t looking for the individual incidents to paint a grim picture and more likely than not this is a common and widespread occurrence where there is active fighting.

Then we had Gen. Mark Milley (then the Chief) claiming back November 2022 that the total losses for both Russia and Ukraine were about 100,000 each. Consider that that was well over a year before the “leaked” US and EU reports cited above.

We also had reports in August, citing US officials, that there were at least 70,000 Ukrainians and 120,000 Russian troops killed in this war. The first google search for source:

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
To continue the post above because the following didn’t fit:

The same numbers were cited and reasoned by the Economist last November.

The Ukrainian side refuted these numbers by saying that only they have the authority to publish the real numbers and that their army is not big enough to sustain these kind of casualties.

There are also estimates provided by the serious analysts suggesting that both sides sit at about 300,000 each in total losses. Then the reports by the likes of Meduza and Mideazone that estimate the RU dead at 66,000-88,000 as of the end of the last year. The UA equivalents put their numbers within the same range for Ukraine.

Anyway, some of those suggested numbers seem reasonable, others not so much, and some are completely bonkers. What they really are we do not know. Frankly, I find it hard to put any estimate at all. Sure, we can do basic math based on the reports of what the Russians went in with in February 2022, the number of mobilized and contracted since, the number reported by Putin currently at the frontline, etc. On the other hand, however, those totals would differ greatly if we refer to the same numbers reported by the western and the Ukrainian sources. Then, on the other side, we have to reconcile the “army is not big enough” and the “one-million army” that cannot currently explain where the 700,000 men are:

Syrsky has been tasked with auditing the existing armed forces to find more combat-eligible troops, after Zelensky’s office recently announced that of the 1 million people who have been mobilized, only about 300,000 have fought at the front lines. But nearly a month after his promotion, no one in the military leadership or the presidential administration has explained where those 700,000 are — or what they have been doing.


Like I said, it is a lot of mental exercise.

As usually, I came to post something else entirely, lol. Maybe next time.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Anyone have a tally of confirmed kills for the (presumably one) roving Patriot battery ?
We have evidence of the roving Patriot battery:

Via google translate:
Two destroyed M901 launchers based on the MAN KAT1 truck of the MIM-104 Patriot complex of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near the settlement. Sergeevka, Donetsk region.
(48°17'51.7"N 36°57'31.5"E)


Via google tranlate:
Destroyed MAN KAT1 truck of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near the village. Sergeevka, Donetsk region.
(48°17'51.7"N 36°57'31.5"E)


Ru MoD claimed it as another S300. There is a lot of Ukrainian AD assets being taken out in the past few weeks.

Another “Patriot battery” has been reported destroyed near Pokrovsk, but there is zero evidence presented, so that one is likely a fart in the wind. The claim is that three launchers and a radar were destroyed in a layered attack


A couple of other things:

Ukrainian MiG-29 reportedly brought down by friendly fire:


Ukrainians absolutely denied the claim at first, but then accepted it:

Via Telegram translate:
Regarding the MiG-29. Let's say briefly - we rushed to conclusions. It also happens, the main thing is not to deceive yourself, but to accept the truth and pay respect to the dead/victims.

Ukrainians claim the attack on the Beriev plant where (allegedly) the latest A-50 had been presented just a few days ago. They claim that the plane itself may have been in the hangar:

Via Telegram translate:
Satellite images of H.M. Beriev TANTK appeared on the network after the UAV attack in Taganrog on the night of March 9

On them, you can clearly see the effects of flights to the main workshops of the plant. It can be seen that it was the final assembly workshop [the hangar] that was on fire, and since the A-50 was not seen outside in its parking lot, therefore, at the time of the impact, it could have been in the hangar, whether it was damaged is unknown. Changes in the hangar with the ABK extension are also visible. It is worth noting that in a picture of this quality, even such subtle changes are quite unique. There won't be a 10-by-10-meter hole from a 75 kg warhead, I hope that's clear to everyone.

Destroying the A-50 and the modernization plant are important goals of Ukraine before the arrival of the F-16, since it is the A-50U that can detect them, this can hinder the work of the Ukrainian Air Force.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Was thinking today and remembered another piece I was going to add to the “little cues/clues” part of my (apparently very long) post from yesterday re losses. I was actually planning to post it for discussion back when I read it first, but the tab had been lost among dozens of others and never remembered about until today. There was an investigation piece by Reuters published a couple of months ago or so suggesting that the VDV did not necessarily sustain the losses often suggested.


The article talks about one class of graduates from 2016, two dozen men. All but three are (some were) in the RU military. Out of the two dozen men, 4 were killed in Ukraine: 3 were killed in the early months of 2022 and the fourth in October 2023. One was captured by the UAF and later released in the prisoner exchange. The article then talks about the men and their stories, etc. It is free to read (may have to register?), so I won’t go on blabbing, but will insert a couple of quotes from the article that mainly further the point of the previous post.

Joris Van Bladel, who researches Russia’s armed forces at Belgium’s Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations, noted that while the 2016 class is too small a sample to draw wide conclusions, the relatively low casualty rate serves as a reminder that Russia’s military, battered by a months-long Ukrainian counter-offensive, isn’t a basket case. The British government, for example, said in August it believes 50% of Russia’s paratroopers deployed to Ukraine have been killed in action or wounded.

“It’s a tough, tenacious opponent,” Van Bladel said of Russia’s military. Russian lines are “not collapsing … Russians are an effective force, as they have shown” he said. Three other Western experts on Russian military staffing said the paratroops have recovered somewhat after heavy losses at the start of the war.[…]

An examination of publicly-reported deaths shows that at least 207 Ryazan ex-cadets have been killed since Russia launched its invasion, a figure that represents around 4.5 percent of graduates over the past decade. Not all deaths are publicly reported.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Thanks for sharing. I was operating on social-media statements from what appeared to be Ukrainian service members in the field reporting continued heavy strikes. Here we have Ukrainian command claiming otherwise. Note what I saw was from a few days back and it appears this report refers to a reduction in operation that literally took place primarily over the weekend that just passed, so it might be a new development. Let's see if any corroboration emerges. As it stands we have Ukrainian officialdom claiming to have downed tons of Russian jets and Ukrainian officialdom claiming this has led to a decrease in strikes. Bomb strikes are fairly large and hard to hide, so if this is true we should be seeing some indication, and if it isn't true we should also be seeing some indication.

On a related note, during the fighting for Avdeevka Russian strikes peaked at over 100 drops per day in some cases. However the monthly average is closer to 50 and based on previous trends, Russia can't maintain 100 strikes per day. I think if we see the volume of strikes roll back from 100+ down to the 40-60 range, we can simply conclude that this is a return to more or less a return to normal levels of operation. If we see a reducing trend line on average daily strikes moving forward, that will be an indicator in something forcing a reduction in strikes.
Apparently ISW doesn't see any corroboration in a reduction of Russian strikes. From my own observation footage of Russian strikes is being provided at a similar pace to prior weeks. The claim appears to be untrue.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
We have evidence of the roving Patriot battery:

Via google translate:
Two destroyed M901 launchers based on the MAN KAT1 truck of the MIM-104 Patriot complex of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near the settlement. Sergeevka, Donetsk region.
(48°17'51.7"N 36°57'31.5"E)


Via google tranlate:
Destroyed MAN KAT1 truck of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near the village. Sergeevka, Donetsk region.
(48°17'51.7"N 36°57'31.5"E)


Ru MoD claimed it as another S300. There is a lot of Ukrainian AD assets being taken out in the past few weeks.

Another “Patriot battery” has been reported destroyed near Pokrovsk, but there is zero evidence presented, so that one is likely a fart in the wind. The claim is that three launchers and a radar were destroyed in a layered attack

@Feanor, do you think the those posts cited by me (quoted) are referring to the same event and the last one is just a little more “flashy” with the number of units destroyed? I feel a little confused here.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
@Feanor, do you think the those posts cited by me (quoted) are referring to the same event and the last one is just a little more “flashy” with the number of units destroyed? I feel a little confused here.
I suspect so. There was one fairly well documented Russian strike on a Patriot unit. It was initially misidentified as an S-300, then confirmed to be a Patriot. It was done 13 kms west of Pokrovsk right next to the village of Sergeevka, in Donetsk region. Russia hit 2 or 3 vehicles from the battery.


Note Ukraine's recent MiG-29 friendly fire loss was also near Pokrovsk which raises the hilarious possibility that the Patriot unit in question revealed itself while firing on a friendly jet.


There were fairly recent reports of Russian increase in Tornado-S missile production, and now we have a fairly significant series of strikes to a depth comparable with its range.

 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
In the last 2 months, thats 2 S-300 strikes, 1 Nasam strike, 1 Buk strike, 3 Patriot launchers, a bunch of radars AP and St types and one visually confirmed Himars destroyed, not to mention a bunch of Archer, Krabs and other SPHs.

Has Russian ISR improved, or has their kill chain become more efficient, or a bit of both?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
In the last 2 months, thats 2 S-300 strikes, 1 Nasam strike, 1 Buk strike, 3 Patriot launchers, a bunch of radars AP and St types and one visually confirmed Himars destroyed, not to mention a bunch of Archer, Krabs and other SPHs.

Has Russian ISR improved, or has their kill chain become more efficient, or a bit of both?
Russian ISR has improved since last fall. They hit a few military trains, some Ukrainian jets on their airfields, and recently published what appears to be UAV footage of Zelenskys cortege from his visit to Odessa. He's quite possible alive because Russia didn't choose to kill him. However I suspect recent losses in Ukrainian SAMs have to do with the devastating effect of Russian air strikes. Ukraine has had to move SAMs closer to the front, and it's been costly.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
I suspect so. There was one fairly well documented Russian strike on a Patriot unit. It was initially misidentified as an S-300, then confirmed to be a Patriot. It was done 13 kms west of Pokrovsk right next to the village of Sergeevka, in Donetsk region. Russia hit 2 or 3 vehicles from the battery.
Thanks. I only now see that the post has coordinates as well that point to the same location.

Your MiG theory is valid and that is what actually confused me. The same Telegram channel (partizan) posted a few hours after the MiG was shot down that there are news to come and combination drone and missile attack, and blah, accompanying the post with a couple of videos of Patriot firing a bunch of missiles in the night, etc. That post was also made right after or along with the post about the drone attack on Odessa. The post is now deleted. So I assumed we are to see another display of Patriot “fireworks” as we did way back when in Kiev, but this time in Odessa.

Apologies for my confusion.

Anyway, they are claiming that there were three strikes, one at the battery and one elsewhere nearby after the SAMs were destroyed. Partial google translation for others of the post cited above:

Yesterday evening, a Russian reconnaissance UAV in the vicinity of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) identified a positional area of the MIM-104 “Patriot” air defense complex. At about 20:30 a combined attack was carried out on a target, which was controlled and adjusted by a drone.

First, ballistic missiles struck a positional area near the village. Sergeevka, as a result of which 3 (three) launchers of the complex were destroyed (judging by the detonations with full ammunition), two escort vehicles (pick-ups), a tanker and, possibly, the AN/MPQ-53 radar was damaged.

After confirming the defeat of the air defense complex, two more missiles struck a temporary deployment point (regularly changing deployment sites), which the enemy had organized on the territory of the Druzhba agricultural firm in the village. Successful, as a result of which the missile transporter-loader vehicle (TLA - Transporter Loader Launcher) was destroyed.


On a side note, remember in Kiev (the “fireworks” event) there was only minor damage reported by the Ukrainian and American officials? Surely, the strike was probably different (and reportedly Kinzhal was used, if I recall correctly). I wonder what the actual damage/destruction was last time.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Thanks. I only now see that the post has coordinates as well that point to the same location.

Your MiG theory is valid and that is what actually confused me. The same Telegram channel (partizan) posted a few hours after the MiG was shot down that there are news to come and combination drone and missile attack, and blah, accompanying the post with a couple of videos of Patriot firing a bunch of missiles in the night, etc. That post was also made right after or along with the post about the drone attack on Odessa. The post is now deleted. So I assumed we are to see another display of Patriot “fireworks” as we did way back when in Kiev, but this time in Odessa.

Apologies for my confusion.

Anyway, they are claiming that there were three strikes, one at the battery and one elsewhere nearby after the SAMs were destroyed. Partial google translation for others of the post cited above:

Yesterday evening, a Russian reconnaissance UAV in the vicinity of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) identified a positional area of the MIM-104 “Patriot” air defense complex. At about 20:30 a combined attack was carried out on a target, which was controlled and adjusted by a drone.

First, ballistic missiles struck a positional area near the village. Sergeevka, as a result of which 3 (three) launchers of the complex were destroyed (judging by the detonations with full ammunition), two escort vehicles (pick-ups), a tanker and, possibly, the AN/MPQ-53 radar was damaged.

After confirming the defeat of the air defense complex, two more missiles struck a temporary deployment point (regularly changing deployment sites), which the enemy had organized on the territory of the Druzhba agricultural firm in the village. Successful, as a result of which the missile transporter-loader vehicle (TLA - Transporter Loader Launcher) was destroyed.


On a side note, remember in Kiev (the “fireworks” event) there was only minor damage reported by the Ukrainian and American officials? Surely, the strike was probably different (and reportedly Kinzhal was used, if I recall correctly). I wonder what the actual damage/destruction was last time.
For the first part, the nearby strikes were aimed at Ukrainian staging areas and are nothing special. Russia is constantly hitting anywhere they think Ukraine is hiding personnel. For the second part, going from memory here, I think Russia destroyed at least two TELs and damaged at least 2 more in the Kiev strike. In a separate aid package months later Germany delivered two separate Patriot TELs to Ukraine. Those are likely replacements for destroyed ones. In another piece of news I recall two TELs going to the US for repairs. Combining the two pieces, Russia hit presumably at least 4, possibly more.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
I agree that Ukrainians are forced to bring these assets forward due to the FAB/KAB/call them what you will situation. I think I said that a few days ago too. I also said that I am not sure who is losing here even if the reports of the multiple downed aircraft were all true. And that was before this incident too. Note that there still some “OSINT” types refuting on Twitter and elsewhere that it was, in fact, a Patriot battery that was hit here. On the related note, I also saw a post (unlikely to now locate) that those guys were sitting in that spot for over three hours awaiting for the order before getting hit (no idea whether that is true).


In regard to the ISW report, I don’t like those. They are always referencing media reports that we do here, as well as the same “milbloggers”. In this particular case, for (lack of) evidence, they are citing a Forbes (of all places) article from about a week ago. Not sure how that constitutes evidence or lack thereof. Especially provided that the cited article doesn’t talk about a reduction or increase of these strikes. In other words, while related to the subject, the article talks about something else entirely.

I do agree though, there does not appear to be much slowdown in these air drops from what both, the Russian and Ukrainian sources, are posting.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Good piece by Dara Massicot. It seems to support what I said in an earlier post -- 2024 is going to be quite important. Europe has the resources to supply Ukraine in the long run. However 2024 (and perhaps parts of 2025) will be critical since Europe has not ramped up production yet. Europe should buy more equipment and ammo from outside of Europe, while waiting for European industry to scale up. It's terrible to see how slow European politicians have been to make decisions on scaling up production.
Time Is Running Out in Ukraine: Kyiv Cannot Capitalize on Russian Military Weakness Without U.S. Aid (foreignaffairs.com)
 

Fredled

Active Member
Good piece by Dara Massicot. It seems to support what I said in an earlier post -- 2024 is going to be quite important. Europe has the resources to supply Ukraine in the long run. However 2024 (and perhaps parts of 2025) will be critical since Europe has not ramped up production yet. Europe should buy more equipment and ammo from outside of Europe, while waiting for European industry to scale up. It's terrible to see how slow European politicians have been to make decisions on scaling up production.

Time Is Running Out in Ukraine: Kyiv Cannot Capitalize on Russian Military Weakness Without U.S. Aid (foreignaffairs.com)
Yes it's terribly slow because they don't live under air alerts. The shell delivery is not that bad. I was reading a few days ago that half a million shells have been delivered since last March, one year ago, when the promised a millions shell within a year. When politicians do half of what they have promised, we can be happy.
_______________________

Ukrainian Defence Line:
Ukrainians are building a defence line like the one Russian built before the counter offensive. Ukes learnt the hard way how effective it is. Now they will try to trap Russian troop the same way.

Funny tidbit: A an article on the same topic written by TASS. Their sources are based on... The Wall Street Journal! LOL :D
How come they don't have sources closer?
_______________________
Heading to WW3: :oops: At the end of 2022, the United States began to prepare contingency plans in case of Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine.
_______________________
Vatican:
Kuleba said:
Kyiv will never capitulate. The Vatican to pay special heed to its role in World War Two.
Pope Pius XII failed to take action against Nazi tyranny in World War Two.
That's not exact: Pope Pius XII performed exorcisms on Adolf Hitler.
Pope Francis could do the same on Putin (if he really believes in God).
_______________________
And these two are also dangerous...
... especially when they are together.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Oskol front.

Russia continue to inch forward in and around Sin'kovka but with no decisive results. With some of the forest west of the village taken it seems likely the village will fall eventually, but this doesn't appear to be a priority.


Russia continues to hit bridges in Kupyansk region.


A Ukrainian tank getting hit near Kupyansk.


Ukrainian Leo-2A6 damaged near Kremennaya.


Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Russian forces continue to advance in Ivanovskoe, but the details remain murky. It's important to note that the northern side of town is overlooked by a pair of hills that last-repoted were under Ukrainian control. Russian forces have also gained a little ground in Bogdanovka but key hills north-west of the village remain in Ukrainian hands.


Russian Lancet strike on a tank near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


11th VDV near Chasov Yar shows off FPV drone strikes and a technical using a Fagot ATGM.


Allegedly a Krab howitzer destroyed near Klescheevka.


Piles of wrecked Ukrainian cars near Chasov Yar. The roads in the area are starting to look like the road into Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Seversk salient.

Russia continues to inch forward near Belogorovka, capturing a small hill and several strees on the eastern outskirts. The main refuse mound is still in Ukrainian hands.


Avdeevka.

After Ukrainian reinforcements arrived, the situation west of Avdeevka has stabilized with Russian troops advancing slowly. They're currently contesting the second line of villages, Tonen'koe, Orlovka, and Berdychy. In Berdychy Ukraine has pushed Russian forces back to the eastern outskirts, in Orlovka Russian forces are stalled in the center, controlling over half of the village, and as a result have attacked south-west of it, threatening Ukrainian forces in Tonen'koe who have subsequently withdraw giving Russia control of about half of the village.


Russian forces also continue to advance in Pervomayskoe, as slowly as before. They gained several streets, and are also advancing in the fields north of the town, likely Ukrainian forces there are simply withdrawing to avoid encirclement since the area north of the ponds there is under Russian control. Russian troops have also taken a treeline south of Nevel'skoe, presumably in preparation for assaulting the village, but it clearly appears to be a low priority.


Reportedly Russia has now destroyed as many as 4 Abrams, though some claim the footage of the 4th is just the 1st one again. 3-4 M1s and 2 M1150s is not great. Wrecked Abrams and Bradleys are starting to pile up in Berdychy, reminiscent of Ukrainian offensives from the summer.


Russian infantry has reached the first knocked out M1150 near Berdychy.


A Ukrainian M113 destroyed north of Lastochkino and BMP-1 in Tonen'koe.


A Ukrainian Marder destroyed near Orlovka. Note this is a very rare vehicle in Ukrainian service and hasn't been confirmed on the front lines since last summer. It's apperance is a definite indicator of Ukrainian reserves being committed to the fight.


Ukrainian infantry west of Avdeevka retreating through the fields and getting hit by Russian fires. This is likely old footage from the retreat out of Avdeevka.


Russian 55th Motor-Rifles firing their Nona-SVK mortar near Avdeevka.


Russian forces show off a Humvee, an M113-based mortar carrier, a Pinzgauer armored ambulance, and an AN/MPQ-64 decoy captured in Avdeevka.


An abandoned Ukrainian Coyote TSV near Avdeevka.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Mar'inka-Ugledar.

Russian forces continue to advance westward in Georgievka, reportedly reaching west of the pod, and north-ward into Krasnogorovka, capturing several more streets. Advances there remain slow, with Ukrainian defenses in the east of the town not even engaged.


Russian forces are advancing inside Novomihailovka and south of the village. Recently Russian forces have managed to advance to almost the entire southern side of the village, threatening the troops there with encirclement. Russian forces have also started pushing out of Pobeda after a wave of Ukrainian counter-atacks.


Russia hit a Krab or an AS-90 with a UMPK bomb. A prior attempt to do this failed due to long arrival time. This time they used 3 FAB-250 bombs, and managed to hit it.


Russian fires on Georgievka.


Ukrainian T-72M1 destroyed in Krasnogorovka.


A Russian T-64 variant unclear destroyed near Novomihailovka. Note the ERA, it's not standard. This is almost certainly a T-64A or B pulled from storage with ERA added.


Knocked out Ukrainian Leo-2s, M113, and a destroyed M113, and Iveco Lince, near Pobeda.


Zaporozhye.

Sources appear to disagree. Some claim Russia is pushed out of Rabotino, some report that Russia is still in the southern outskirts. Either way the arrival of Ukrainian reinforcements has stabilized the situation in Rabotino, but not in the rest of the salient where Russian forces continue to advance northward and westward.


Rusian forces have made a small push towards Gulyaypole. It doesn't appear to be part of any major effort, rather just another opportunistic push.


2 destroyed Leo-2s with K-1 and a YPR-765 knocked out. I think this is the Rabotino salient where on the one hand it was difficult for Ukraine to evacuate vehicles, and on the other hand Russia has recently advanced, capturing ground where knocked out and destroyed Ukrainian vehicles remain. The one thing that's unclear is if these are recent losses or from last summer. I don't believe we've seen this tank pair before.


Russian Lancet strike hits a Ukrainian Hortitsa EW station north of Pyatihatka, ~20kms from the front line.


Russian Lancet strike on Ukrainian Plastun EW in Zaporozhye.


Knocked out and destroyed Russian T-62s. They were apparently used in recent attacks, I believe in the Rabotino salient.


Russian BMP-3s carrying assault teams into Rabotino.


Dnepr front.

Ukrainian special forces attempted a landing on the Tendrovskaya peninsula, which ended in disaster. Either 4 or 5 boats were involved, and only one escape. 2 or 3 were sunk, and one drifted to the Russian held coast, with the bodies and a single POW. Ukraine reportedly lost 11 KIA, 2 MIA, and 1 POW. Numerically not that significant, these are valuable and trained personnel. Warning footage of corpses in the 6-10th links.


Russia carried out a pair of Lancet strikes against Ukrainian boats in Nikolaev striking a 40-foot Defiant and a project 1176 boat.


Allegedly a Ukrainian Gepard destroyed in Kherson region. Personally I can't make out what's getting hit.


A Ukrainian S-300PS hit in Kherson region.


Russian UAV observes Ukrainian infantry dismount from a truck and take cover, then directs a strike there.


Allegedly a Ukrainian ambulance being used to transport a mortar near the Dnepr. Ukraine has been caught using ambulances as troop transports before.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Strikes.

Russia hit a Ukrainian National Guard airbase near Aleksandriya in central Ukraine where allegedly they destroyed one of Ukraine's Airbus H125s that was on the ground inoperable pending maintenance. This is a follow-on strike after a previous Russian strike during which a Sea King was allegedly destroyed.


Russia hit a 36D6 radar in Sumy region and a P-18 in Chernigov region.


A new Russian gliding munition has surfaced the UMPB D-30SN, a mere 250 kg, it allegedly comes in two variants, either a regular gliding bomb to be dropped from a jet or a Tornado-S launched rocket. It may the culprit behind a number of recent Russian Tornado-S strikes.


Reportedly Russia hit a Ukrainian EW system, the Pokrova, near Dnepropetrovsk.


Reportedly Russia hit a Ukrainian special forces center in Sumy region, resulting in casualties confirmed through obituaries.


Russia hit a Buk-M1 in Sumy region. This is part of a pattern of recent SEAD strikes by Russia. I won't cover ones that have been mentioned by others already.


Ukraine struck a Russian fuel reservoir in Belgorod region. Strikes of this type continue but on a relatively limited scale.


Interesting tidbits.

Ukrainian FPV drones have appeared that have airburst capabilities.


Ukrainain Mi-8 lobbing Hydra rockets towards Russian positions. Note the effectiveness of strikes like these is very low.


Zuzana-2 howtizer destroyed. Location unclear, some are on the Dnepr, some were near Avdeevka.


Some interesting Russian observations on the Javelin, it apparently sometimes homes in on the heated barrel of a tank cannon instead of the turret or engine.


A closer look at Russian testing done on a captured Bradley with various ammo types.


A Russian soldier posing with a knocked out Leo-2. The source claims this is Pobeda, but this doesn't look like the Leo-2A4s with K-1 that were knocked out near Pobeda. Of course there were 3 knocked out Leo-2s reported, but only footage of two. It's possible the third was differently uparmored.


Apparently a Ukrainian Willis jeep was blown up in the war zone. Much old kit has seen the front lines in this war.


Russian soldiers using a Chinese backpack EW station.


Russian forces have adapted a drone for dropping mines to mine forward areas.


2 Russian BMP-1AMs with an extra armor kit, one with a second set of extra armor panels used to create an armored box on top of the vehicle. The other just with anti-UAV screens. It would be wise for Russia to focus on production of these kits as they would considerably increase the survivability of the massive legacy fleet.


Russia continues the pattern of using manekens to simulate infantry on top fo armored vehicles. It's still completely unclear what the purpose is.


Russian forces continue to operate the Kirpi MRAP they captured. They claim this was in Avdeevka but I have my doubts. Russia had a documented captured Kirpi in working condition last year, and I think this is that one still being used.


A rare Russian IMR-3M has shown up in the war. It's an engineering vehicle on the T-90 chassis.


Russian BMP-3M unclear if with extra armor kit or not as it's hidden by the camo-netting and anti-UAV screens.


A Russian Infauna EW kit in anti-UAV netting. Unclear if this will interfere with it's operation.


A Chinese soldier in Russian service. They're using a translator app to communicate. Also an African and Vietnamese recruit.


Ukraine's rare M-55S in service now allegedly with the 5th Tanks.


A rare BMD-4M in Ukrainian service. Only a couple hundred were in service before the war and their production appears to have completely halted in favor of maximizing BMP-3 production.


A Ukrainian Stryker column, somewhere. These vehicles have been conspicuously absent from the front lines since summer.


Ukrainian T-72EA with an EW kit on it. These are rapidly becoming more and more common for counter-acting FPV drones, though their effectiveness remains questionable, and their use reveals the location of the vehicle.


A Ukrainian MT-LBu with a Parus unmanned turret. The larger hull of the u variant means more internal volume for infantry, but the armor remains quite weak for a frontline vehicle.


A brief review of the new rail line Russia is building in southern Ukraine. The significance of the Crimean bridge will be less if this rail line is built.


In Mariupol' Russia is planning to restart rail carriage production at the Azovmash plant. This will be the second major factory in Mariupol' that resumes work. What's more significant however is that this factory was involved pre-war in producing armored hulls for Ukrainian BTR-4s. Considering the high commonality of a BTR-4 and BTR-80, this plant could in principle be used to boost BTR production for Russia, provided engines and turrets are available.


Western Aid.

The UK is reportedly starting production of T-72 and MT-LB tracks, obviously for Ukraine.


Deliveries of armored vehicles from Bulgaria to Ukraine have finally begun. Initially it was reported they would get 100 BTR-60s. Now they're getting BRDM-2s and 2S1 howitzers. It remains unclear if the totals are still ~100 vehicles or if this is additional aid.


A review of Italian military storage in Lenta shows the numbers shrinking drastically. Presumably much of this went to Ukraine.


Reportedly Ukraine has received it's 100th Oncilla armored car. This is a Polish-built copy of the Ukrainian Dozor.


It appears British and French military personnel are in Ukraine to help direct the long range missiles provided to Ukraine.


Ukrainian forces show off a new Dana-M2 howitzer. While deliveries of new vehicles have slowed down to a trickle, aid is still coming in.

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Note Ukraine's recent MiG-29 friendly fire loss was also near Pokrovsk which raises the hilarious possibility that the Patriot unit in question revealed itself while firing on a friendly jet.
There are now claims that the MiG was shot down with a R-77 fired from a Su-35S. They are also claiming that there were two MiGs, but one was able to get away and the RU pilots didn’t chase after it due to the risk imposed by the Ukrainian AD.


There are also reports that the pilot of the MiG was a major and a commander (this was confirmed by the Ukrainian sources as well). He was also an instructor.


Ukraine reportedly tried to attack the Belgorod region from the ground. As a result, they lost 5 tanks, 3 howitzers, and MLRS, a number of IFVs and pickups, as well as 70 UAF personnel, including special forces.


According to the source above, they were hit with Lancets and FABs; Caesars were destroyed with Iskanders.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
There are now claims that the MiG was shot down with a R-77 fired from a Su-35S. They are also claiming that there were two MiGs, but one was able to get away and the RU pilots didn’t chase after it due to the risk imposed by the Ukrainian AD.


There are also reports that the pilot of the MiG was a major and a commander (this was confirmed by the Ukrainian sources as well). He was also an instructor.

I saw the same reported name of the pilot but not the rest of it. It's certainly possible, the location is close to the front line.

Ukraine reportedly tried to attack the Belgorod region from the ground. As a result, they lost 5 tanks, 3 howitzers, and MLRS, a number of IFVs and pickups, as well as 70 UAF personnel, including special forces.


According to the source above, they were hit with Lancets and FABs; Caesars were destroyed with Iskanders.
That's one hell of a local apocalypse. 5 tanks, 3 artillery, and multiple other vehicles destroyed including multiple lancet strikes. We should see ample footage. Let's see if we do.

EDIT: I spoke too soon. We have first footage coming out of this. It appears to be at least correct in the general sense. It remains to be seen what the particulars are. Footage shows at least one tank (two shots might be same one) and one Caesar (Bogdana?) howitzer getting hit.


EDIT2: Video here. It's a Bogdana howitzer, and we finally have a very logical strike. First a large Iskander, then the Lancets for finishing off surviving vehicles.

 
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