The website added information on its own, and even if we consider purely Ukrainian sources, 400,000 killed and wounded(official ukrainian sources) is not so unrealistic. According to leaked documents from American intelligence in the spring of 2023, they estimated Russia's losses at 43,000 killed (not including Wagner and the LDNR), with a ratio of killed to wounded at 1:4( Ukrainian losses 18k with 1:6 ). Then there was Bahmut with 20,000 killed and Avdiivka with 16,000 killed according to statements from a Russian military correspondent, Even if we don't consider other losses, this would already be at least 80,000 killed and over 320,000 wounded. . Therefore, even if the figure of 400,000 killed and wounded is exaggerated, I don't think it's by much
That website has identical numbers to the UA MoD numbers and the reason they add the “wounded” is because the Ukrainian MoD used to specify the number (the currently 400 whatever thousand) as “killed” or something of that nature (not killed per se, but something that suggested exactly that). I have no idea what they are doing now because I do not follow (the same is true for the RU MoD), but that is how it used to be. They are also assuming the 3:1 ratio for wounded to killed, so if you take their one million whatever wounded and divide it by three, you will get exactly the number of “killed”. Ok, I looked and now the MoD reports as total losses (their
facebook post on the subject of losses from a couple of days ago); you will note that the rest of the numbers are identical (plus the new losses and less the “wounded”).
What you are doing is simply a mental exercise. We can go deeper in this mental exercise and say that, for example, the documents were leaked in March (I think?) or so, closer to the end of the Bakhmut offensive, so how many of the presumed 20,000 were included in the 43,000 is unknown. Furthermore, it wasn’t 43,000 but rather a range between 35,500 and 43,000 of departed personnel and the total causalities (killed and wounded) between 189,500 and 223,000. Just in case, a source to the numbers (the first google-provided result):
US documents suggest Russian officials disagreed over how casualties were being counted.
www.bbc.com
All we know about the 20,000 in Bakhmut is what the now departed Progozhin himself said, also mentioning 40,000 wounded (a ridiculously high 1:2 ratio). Whether any of this is true we do not know, but the killed to wounded ratio suggests it isn’t necessarily the case. I wrote a long time ago in this very thread (or the Russia thread?) that it seems like if his mouth is open -> he is lying, so we cannot know with any reasonable degree of certainty if this is the case. Note, however, that the British intel has used these numbers for Bakhmut since. Source for the numbers (first google search result):
Yevgeny Prigozhin repeats criticism of Russia’s top brass and warns high number of fatalities is a risk to the country.
www.aljazeera.com
Whether the leaked document itself is valid also remains questionable. According to the same leak, the Ukrainian casualties were 124,500-131,000 (including 16,500-17,000 killed in action). In my opinion, Bakhmut (a good chunk of it) must have been included in these numbers in order for them to make a fair sense. But we can disregard this point entirely. Note that the EU intel report last May
suggested that the leaked American intel report overestimated the actual numbers for the UA losses and placed them at 13,000 killed and 35,000 wounded.
Next, is the 16,000 you provide for Avdiivka. Are you referring to the guy that reportedly committed suicide? Moroz or Morz or something like that? Pretty sure he is the only one I heard this number from (or referenced to). This is the same guy who predicted (in the early spring last year?) the Ukrainians breaking through the Russian defense lines once the (summer) counteroffensive begins because the best RU units were lost in Bakhmut (or something like that), or the catastrophic situation for the RU in the summer, revolution in Russia, etc, right? He also said that the UAF casually retreated from Avdiivka, with minimal casualties, to the well-prepared defensive line just outside of it. I will post the links to everything written above if necessary if this is the same guy. Pretty sure this is. It should be mentioned that the same guy also said that Ukraine permanently lost 7,000 in Avdiivka as well. If we are to believe the 16,000, the 7,000 should be taken just as valid. This, in turn, suggests that the Ukrainians sustained 2.3 kia for every Russian troop killed. This took place in the best circumstances due to defending the existing fortifications in Avdiivka (the reported lack of ammunition was not ideal). This takes us back to the leaked US intel and, according to the reported UA numbers, this should put us at 38-39K Russians killed, provided Ukraine fought in the most favourable circumstances throughout the entire war, which, of course, wasn’t the case.
Why wasn’t it the case? Well, first of all, Russia has had a significant artillery advantage for a greater part of this war and the artillery is what kills in a war like this. Russia has had an advantage in FPVs for a long time now (sources posted by me in previous posts), which is also what kills in this war. Furthermore, Russia has the air superiority to some (great?) degree, which also makes a difference. And so on.
We can also continue this mental exercise and provide even greater numbers. For example, according to
this guy (sorry, Twitter link), a commander from the famous Chosen Company, the Russians lost “100k WIA&KIA easily” in Avdiivka. Moreover, he states that “deaths only wise, Avdiivka was likely 2x worse for the Russians than Bahkmut.” However, he also precedes that by “casualty wise (WIA&KIA) Bahkmut was likely higher.” That puts us in a real doozy as far as numbers are concerned because he implies that RU lost at least 40,000 in killed personnel in Avdiivka, as well as over 60,000 wounded, but now Prigozhin's numbers do not make any sense because this guy completely contradicts it (lower total, but over 100,000, and double the killed). Put another way, according to this guy, in Avdiivka alone the Russians lost at least 1/5 of all their personnel combined situated “in and around Ukraine” as per
Budanov (sorry for the Twitter link again, but it is easier for me in this post), according to whom there are “510,000 military personnel in and around Ukraine and has been able to recruit about 30,000 a month." Of course, the commander from Chosen also describes something reminiscent of the Commando movie with Arnold Schwarzenegger in his tweet where he talks about all these numbers.
Then we can refer to the numbers Zelensky provided, which are 31,000 and 180,000 soldiers killed for the Ukrainian and Russian sides, respectively. He also said that the total number of losses in this war for Russia stood at 500,000. Source, just in case (the first google search result):
Russia’s casualties when wounded soldiers are included stretch to some 500,000, Ukrainian president says
www.independent.co.uk
First of all, he directly contradicted the numbers provided in the “briefs” of his own Ministry of Defense at the same time. Never mind that (see the EU report article cited above) 10 or so months ago the Ukrainians claimed that 185,000 Russians were killed and 555,000 were wounded. Second, he maintained that Russia loses six troops for every Ukrainian soldier (killed). Again, this number is completely unreasonable. Like I already said, Russia dominates in air, artillery, and UAVs departments, at least, for the better part of the war. They also absolutely dominate in their defensive engineering. He also suggested that more than 1 Russian is killed for the two wounded. That’s not exactly reasonable either.
Then we have a whole bunch of sort of little cues from both sides, mostly from the Ukrainian side though simply due to the media accessibility, such as 60 men left and only 15 came back, half of them wounded (arbitrary numbers), 15 left but only four survived, etc. I posted plenty of those reports here previously, including articles by Kiev Post, Kiev Independent, Politico, Washington Post, New York Times, etc.
Reference for the 4 out of 15, for example (Twitter citing an article I posted and quoted here previously). These reports have been abundant and the reporters certainly aren’t looking for the individual incidents to paint a grim picture and more likely than not this is a common and widespread occurrence where there is active fighting.
Then we had Gen. Mark Milley (then the Chief)
claiming back November 2022 that the total losses for both Russia and Ukraine were about 100,000 each. Consider that that was well over a year before the “leaked” US and EU reports cited above.
We also had reports in August, citing US officials, that there were at least 70,000 Ukrainians and 120,000 Russian troops killed in this war. The first google search for source:
Ukraine will not disclose its death count, but the BBC’s Quentin Sommerville witnesses the mounting toll.
www.bbc.com