Why ASEAN matters - in the era of great power competition

[Ananda]

Indonesia moves site of ASEAN military drills away from South China Sea

Indonesia has changed where it will host ASEAN's first-ever joint military exercise to a location away from the South China Sea where several countries including China have overlapping territorial claims, its military said on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

Well this ASEAN naval exercise that Indonesia initiate the idea, seems need some compromise. Especially Cambodia and Myanmar disagree on the idea, then change their stance toward more neutral exercise regimes.

This seems work as the exercises that before aim to be conducted in North Natuna Sea (part of Indonesian EEZ in SCS), now being move to South Natuna Sea which is still close to SCS but part of Indonesian water.



To give the idea, this is Indonesian Map of Natuna Sea (Laut Natuna). North Natuna Sea (Laut Natuna Utara) is Indonesian EEZ north of Natuna Islands bordering Malaysian and Vietnam EEZ. This is more or less part of SCS. While South Natuna Sea is what in that map call Laut Natuna which is part of Indonesian teritorial water.

The regimes of exercise now build on non combatan ones, thus more on Naval civic duties roles. Well it is compromise to bring all ASEAN navies together. This is just for a neutral regimes exercises, still already need some compromise.

 

[Ananda]

Quite interesting discussion on what ASEAN latest foreign minister meeting, which also bring FM from US, China, Russia, Japan, ROK and Australia. Basically players that matters on Asia Pacific interactions.

ASEAN will not be EU or NATO, ASEAN will try to find their own places not to be dictate by major players and stay and the middle. Try stay in the middle is basically that can make ASEAN continues relevancy.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

ASEAN Solidarity Exercise in Natuna (ASEX-01 N) 2023' is the first multilateral naval exercise to be carried out exclusively for navies in the ASEAN bloc and it started yesterday.

A harbour phase of the exercise began on 18 September in Batam and a sea phase is being held from 20 to 23 September in and around Laut Natuna.

ASEAN navies omit live-firing activities at inaugural joint exercise

Navies at the inaugural Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) multilateral naval exercise will not take part in any live-firing serials throughout the activity,...

www.janes.com

 

[Ananda]

Supply chains may be moving out of China and into Asia — but they aren't really decoupling from the country

Trade data suggests China's manufacturers are assembling fewer end products there and instead shipping materials to Southeast Asia for final assembly.

www.businessinsider.com

"The production chain decoupling that is actually not a really a decoupling"

That's the main massage if this article, and basically as what happen. Especially for ASEAN, the production off shoring/relocation from China, only make many of this relocation still being integral part of production ecosystems with China.

 

[Ananda]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1739491286464528721

Indonesia and Japan conducting bilateral meeting from 19th to 24th of December. Clearly shown meeting that conducting to finish some concept agreement that being made this year.

That agreement which I put this on ASEAN thread. As the agreement has become base is concept outlook on Indo-Pacific defence from an ASEAN perspective. Something that Indonesia MinDef champion, as chair during this year’s ADMM (Asean Defense Minister Meeting). From what I see, it seems both Japan and Indonesian MinDef want to shown this as Pilot Project that the concept wise can be replicated by other ASEAN MinDef

 

[Ananda]

https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/oecd-makes-historic-decision-to-open-accession-discussions-with-indonesia.htm

OECD officially makes accession discussion with Indonesia, as 1st application for SEA region. Economically Singapore should already eligible for OECD membership, but seems from my understanding Singapore doesn't want to be the first from ASEAN to apply.

For Indonesia applying for OECD is part to attract Investments as shown the regulation will be align with OECD. However politically as biggest member of ASEAN, this can be sign for the rest what Indonesia standing. At same time closing in to OECD, Indonesia also not moving off from other grouping like BRICS.

Rumours circulating that one of OECD member that have no diplomatic relations with Indonesia will become hurdle. They see Indonesia as part of hostile global parties to them. Indonesia according rumours from Ministry of Foreign Relations already told OECD, that principle of Palestine support will stay. No compromise on relationship with Israel going to happen, as long as Palestinian issue remain. Something that I don't think any Indonesian President now and future, dare to break.

So will be interesting to see how this is going to develop.

 

[Vivendi]

I find it very peculiar that many countries far away from the ME are so involved with the Israel-Palestine conflict, and at the same time sitting on the fence in so many other conflicts. Is it due to religion? Why then are many of the countries that are so vocal in their support of Palestinians (in spite of horrific terrorist attacks like the October 7 attack), at the same time very quiet when China is putting Uighurs in concentration camps? Or when Turkey is bombing Kurdish villages?

Seems illogical to me.

 

[STURM]

I find it very peculiar that many countries far away from the ME are so involved with the Israel-Palestine conflict, and at the same time sitting on the fence in so many other conflicts. Is it due to religion?

It’s not “peculiar” if you understand that the Palestinian issue has been around for decades and that it resonates with certain people in a way the Ukraine and others don’t. You’ve had a lot to say about the Ukraine; what have you said here about what’s going on the Congo and other places. You’ve had thousands of words to say about the Ukraine; what have you said about the occupied Palestinian territories?

it due to religion

It’s not like it’s only Muslim countries which support the Palestinian cause and as you know some of the Palestinians killed and being killed aren’t even Muslim. Some of the Palestinians ethnically cleansed in the Nakba weren’t even Muslims.

It seems “peculiar” to me that Western reaction to the deaths of Ukrainian civilians differs greatly to they reacted towards Palestinians deaths. Look also at the statements made regarding Navalny’s death which was tragic but in sharp contrast to what was said by many regarding Palestinian deaths. We also have the sharp contrast between how Ukrainian refugees were treated and how non white mostly Muslim refugees trying to get into Festung Europa were treated.

Why then are many of the countries that are so
vocal in their support of Palestinians (in spite of horrific terrorist attacks like the October 7 attack)

What sort of statement is this? Are you suggesting that countries and organisations [including Norwegian NGOs] are wrong or misguided by supporting the Palestinian cause, including showing concern and empathy for the plight of ordinary Gazans; simply because of what Hamas did on 7th October? Does this make sense?

at the same time very quiet when China is putting Uighurs in concentration camps? Or when Turkey is bombing Kurdish villages?

what do you expect them to do? Cut ties with China and suffer the economic fallout? Also, not to downplay what’s happening to the Uighurs and Kurds but are you suggesting that their plight or suffering is equal to what’s happening to the Palestinians?

Seems illogical to me

Some of what you’ve mentioned is “illogical”.

 

[Ananda]

Those who support Israel bombardment wil always use Hamas Oct 7 as excuse. Eventough no justification on Israel Civilians killing, but also what justification of kiling 20 times more Palestinian civilans ? Is this a pathetic way saying one Israel Civilian worth 20 to 30 Palestinian Civilians? Afterall what Israel minister call Palestinians as Sub Human though ?

Talking on Oct 7 is really just whitewash the fact that thousands Palestinians more has been kill before that by Israel occupation and apartheid attitude by their security in the excuse to shield their ilegal settlers. Something that even Blinken now say illegal activities (but off course not going to do more then that from Washington).

Well this is ASEAN thread anyway. Calling ilogical move by mostly global south nations to support Palestinian, has to be understood. Afterall some in 'develop' countries believe wholeheartedly that Global South has to be ilogical, if they are not touting "West" logical move.

 

[T.C.P]

I find it very peculiar that many countries far away from the ME are so involved with the Israel-Palestine conflict, and at the same time sitting on the fence in so many other conflicts. Is it due to religion? Why then are many of the countries that are so vocal in their support of Palestinians (in spite of horrific terrorist attacks like the October 7 attack), at the same time very quiet when China is putting Uighurs in concentration camps? Or when Turkey is bombing Kurdish villages?

Seems illogical to me.

By that logic, why is a nation like Australia so keen on the Ukraine affair, giving out millions of dollars in aid and weapons when they are as faraway from Russia as possible? Is it because the Ukranians are white and Christian?

 

[Vivendi]

STURM I haven't seen you for quite some time, i hope all is well!

By that logic, why is a nation like Australia so keen on the Ukraine affair, giving out millions of dollars in aid and weapons when they are as faraway from Russia as possible?

I think it is very logical that countries like Australia, Japan and Taiwan are providing significant support to Ukraine. Australia, Japan and Taiwan all support a rules-based international order where borders are not violated by violent invasions. As a bonus, all support democracies, and it so happens that Ukraine is a democracy.

For a country like Norway, which is in Europe and even shares a border with Russia, it makes a lot of sense to support Ukraine as much as possible, for the reasons mentioned above, but also because of the direct threat to Norway from Russia of course.

Anyway I found it interesting that nobody really answered my question about why Palestine is so much more important than other conflicts. More than 300,000 have been killed in Syria for example. To repeat Ananda's rhetorical question: to a person spending most of his time protesting against the attacks on Palestinians and no time protesting the war in Syria does this mean that 1 Palestinian is worth more than 10 Syrians?

To me the war in Syria is no less or no more important than the war in Israel, I would put them at the same level of importance. Given the large number of people killed in Syria compared to Israel perhaps I should reconsider. Anyway this is off-topic and I will not post more on this here.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Yes, what happen to the Uyghurs is terrible.
And the fact that around 10.000 civilians have died in Ukraine in the last 2 years is also terible.

Liveblog | VN: meer dan 10.000 Oekraïense burgerdoden sinds Russische inval

VN-mensenrechtenbureau meldt meer dan 10.000 burgerdoden sinds begin oorlog Oekraïne

www.bnr.nl

But israel managed to kill 25.000 people in Gaza in just a couple of months, with a majority of them females, teenagers and children.

Trieste kaap van 25.000 doden in Gaza overschreden

www.vrt.be

Israeli troops attacking on purpose hospitals, killing whole families and Red Cross rescuers/staff.

Vermist Palestijns meisje (6), dat uren belde met hulpverleners, dood gevonden

De 6-jarige Hind kreeg internationaal veel aandacht nadat de Palestijnse Halve Maan bekend maakte dat ze vermist is.

nos.nl

Is this less terrible ?


Every violent attack/military action against civillians is wrong, regardless the perpetrators and the victims.
But this thread is about ASEAN-matters, so please stay on topic.

 

[STURM]

STURM I haven't seen you for quite some time, i hope all is well!

As well as it could be I guess but thanks for asking.

I found it interesting that nobody really answered my question about why Palestine is so much more important than other conflicts.

The question was answered; only not to your satisfaction.

As mentioned the Palestinian issue has been around far more longer and it resonates with individuals/countries in a way other conflicts don't. It also involves Al-Quds a place of much significance/importance.

More than 300,000 have been killed in Syria for example. To repeat Ananda's rhetorical question: to a person spending most of his time protesting against the attacks on Palestinians and no time protesting the war in Syria does this mean that 1 Palestinian is worth more than 10 Syrians?

Well the situation in Syria does not receive the same level of coverage as the Palestinian issue does and has been around for a much shorter period. It's also a wee bit harder or more complicated for the average person who does not keep track of such things; to fully comprehend. To fully understand Syria we must understand the history of the country [created by the French]; the role the Alawis occupy; the roles Iran, the West, Turkey, the Gulf states and the West played [all had slightly different agendas]; the rise of IS which in turn was linked to the situation in Iraq; etc, etc.

Based on your question; I could ask; given the level of support given to the Ukraine which is in sharp contrast to how the West reacted over Gaza [it initially bought hook line and sinker the Israeli narrative [look at statements Biden and Blinken made without first verifying things and over the UNRWA issues] does this mean that to the West; Palestinian lives has far less value than Palestinian ones? Given the statements made over Navalny and the hesitancy of various leaders to say anything similar regarding the Palestinians; does the death of one man who was a Putin opponent carry much more significance compared to thousands dead in Gaza?

Israel’s Ruthless Propaganda Campaign to Dehumanize Palestinians

Since October 7, Israel has systematically flooded the public discourse on Gaza with a stream of false, unsubstantiated, and unverifiable allegations.

theintercept.com

Look at the statement you made, itself telling - ''Why then are many of the countries that are so vocal in their support of Palestinians (in spite of horrific terrorist attacks like the October 7 attack)''.

To me the war in Syria is no less or no more important than the war in Israel,

I have no idea what your definition is of 'no less or no more important than the war in Israel' but although tragic [all wars are] the situation in Syria differs greatly to the situation in Palestine.

 

[Vivendi]

But this thread is about ASEAN-matters, so please stay on topic.

I agree, and that's why I wrote in my last post that I will not post more on this topic here.

 

[Ananda]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1764925746751873368

On the subset this is more to Indonesian politics, however put it in ASEAN thread, as shown how US now engage more in SEA countering China with Trade and Investment card. I already say this on Chinese Thread, and Indo Pacific thread. If US wabt to address and counter growing Sino influence, abd counter it with Trade and Investment. Because thar's biggest China card so far.

Taking defense as diplomatic move by US will bot be enough. Global South need Investment and Increase in Trade benefits. In short, it is economic card that has to be the main card.

As this case, Indonesian present administration (which more likely follow by next administration, as Prabowo so far stated he will follow Jokowi's strategy), has put much emphasis on building this new capital Nusantara. Personally I don't like the project, as for me building new capital cases so far in many countries tend to costs more then benefits. However it doesn't matter as from 3 Presidential candidates in last elections, 2 support new capital. Thus shown Indonesian political circles has more pro then Contra for this project.

Thus the administration already spend more and try attract much Investment. Not all doing well (on attracting Investment) except from China. Thus US move seems clearly done to counter Sino potential increase Investment influences, in ASEAN largest economy.

Defense and Diplomacy clout will not be enough. Money, trade and Investment has to come to equiation.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

In this article we can read how Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim defending China's military and economic rise in the Asia-Pacific region in a quite fanatic way. I don't know the reason for it, but it seems Malaysia now has its own Luhut.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/2024/3/7/malaysia-pm-warns-against-attempts-to-block-china-s-rise-1632

 

[Ananda]

Majority of ASEAN people favor China over U.S., survey finds

In a first, Beijing becomes Southeast Asia's preferred choice over Washington

asia.nikkei.com

If we see the trend of changes on perceptions toward China from US, it is drastically shown reverse trend begining only in last year toward now. Biggest changes come from Muslim Majority nations in ASEAN, Brunai, Malaysia and Indonesia. Thus it is not mystery why the drastic changes happen, as we all now why US perceptions in most Muslim Nations drastically downgrade lately.

However the study also find nearly half of ASEAN prefer to 'sit in fences' and consolidate within ASEAN, on the matter of US-Chins rivalry. Still nearly in all ASEAN increase recognition of China importance economically and politically for ASEAN.

Clear picture of a regional organisation that try play in the middle of both major powers. However also shown geopolitics not directly related toward ASEAN, can influence and changes perceptions on China that before continue shown downtrend influence.

 

[Ananda]

This is the result of the research done CNBC Indonesia, resulting that 10 mio Gen Z actually unemployed. Which means not in school also not employed. Basically doing nothing generation.

The talk of demographic dividend for most Asia (outside East Asia), including most of ASEAN, sometimes forgot whether the youth that supposedly giving this dividend are having equal qualities distribution.

I use Indonesia as example, as asside Singapore, Brunai and some extent Malaysia, others in ASEAN has more or less similar HDI level. Even that it is still better then say average South Asia, bit at least this put question whether the rest of Asia can follow East Asia when they reach their Population Dividend.

Not saying the rest of Asia will not got that demographic dividend, but raise questions whether they will receive similar level of Dividend, as East Asia. Most of Asia will still gain that faster economies growth then Global average. However will that going to be in similar level when East Asia using their demographic dividend decades ago ? Will the rest of Asia going to reach East Asia level of average wealth?

Somethings personally I do have big doubts on that.

 

[Ananda]

The Road Ahead for Indonesia

The key priority of my presidency will ultimately be quality of life for the Indonesian people.

www.newsweek.com

This is article wrote by Prabowo, and make some importance as he is Indonesian President ellect. Make reason why Newsweek put it. However I put this on ASEAN thread because of this part, as other part of article talk more on his vision for Indonesia. Which base on what he wrote in the article, so far he's still want to maintain and continue Jokowi's strategy.

In keeping with this vision for our country's geopolitical position, we will continue our strong cooperation with China as an important power in our region, an important economic partner, and a people with whom we have a long, shared history. But at the same time, we will work to expand and deepen our close partnerships with the U.S. and the West. This is important for us, underwritten not just by shared interests and cooperation in a number of areas, but also by shared values, as we shape some of the biggest democracies in the world.

This is something that basically shares by most of ASEAN. Perhaps only Philippines at this moment that want to be more confrontational diplomatic stance with China. Sometimes I watch when some Pinoys lashing out to ASEAN for not supporting Philippines enough, while watch the response from other ASEAN onlines that lashing out to Pinoys for not consulting with other members, but expect support otherwise.

China and US increasing presences means increasing also potential clash. Something that most ASEAN want to avoid. Thus with what Philippines done by bringing outside power, is also some others in ASEAN talk in media and online forums, why other ASEAN reluctant supporting Pinoys spats with China.

Map shows US military projecting power around China

U.S. forces have taken part in 21 exercises and public operations in the Indo-Pacific region since early January.

www.newsweek.com

Malaysia can be an example, despites conflicting claim with China in SCS, they seems doing two different approach. Increasing military presences on their claims in SCS, however avoiding bringing outside power to the equations.

Malaysia opposes ‘external forces’ meddling in South China Sea: foreign minister

Mohamad Hasan takes a veiled swipe at US-Philippines military cooperation during a meeting with China’s foreign minister in Beijing.

www.scmp.com

Perhaps why at this moment Chinese Ships (whether CG and PLAN) more or less avoiding confrontation with Malaysian CG and in some ways also with Vietnam and Indonesian ships. Not there are no confrontation, but at least much more subtle then Pinoys. Perhaps because other claimant so far still try to settle bilaterally and not bringing others in.

In the end what Prabowo's put in his article, can be said as possition that shares by most of other ASEAN members. Engaging and cooperation with China is inevitable for most of SEA nations. Be prepared defense wise, but keep engaging in diplomatic and commercial side. Moreover make sure ASEAN settle this within ASEAN own efforts, and not bringing others as much as possible.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

The Road Ahead for Indonesia

The key priority of my presidency will ultimately be quality of life for the Indonesian people.

www.newsweek.com

This is article wrote by Prabowo, and make some importance as he is Indonesian President ellect. Make reason why Newsweek put it. However I put this on ASEAN thread because of this part, as other part of article talk more on his vision for Indonesia. Which base on what he wrote in the article, so far he's still want to maintain and continue Jokowi's strategy.



This is something that basically shares by most of ASEAN. Perhaps only Philippines at this moment that want to be more confrontational diplomatic stance with China. Sometimes I watch when some Pinoys lashing out to ASEAN for not supporting Philippines enough, while watch the response from other ASEAN onlines that lashing out to Pinoys for not consulting with other members, but expect support otherwise.

China and US increasing presences means increasing also potential clash. Something that most ASEAN want to avoid. Thus with what Philippines done by bringing outside power, is also some others in ASEAN talk in media and online forums, why other ASEAN reluctant supporting Pinoys spats with China.

Map shows US military projecting power around China

U.S. forces have taken part in 21 exercises and public operations in the Indo-Pacific region since early January.

www.newsweek.com

Malaysia can be an example, despites conflicting claim with China in SCS, they seems doing two different approach. Increasing military presences on their claims in SCS, however avoiding bringing outside power to the equations.

Malaysia opposes ‘external forces’ meddling in South China Sea: foreign minister

Mohamad Hasan takes a veiled swipe at US-Philippines military cooperation during a meeting with China’s foreign minister in Beijing.

www.scmp.com

Perhaps why at this moment Chinese Ships (whether CG and PLAN) more or less avoiding confrontation with Malaysian CG and in some ways also with Vietnam and Indonesian ships. Not there are no confrontation, but at least much more subtle then Pinoys. Perhaps because other claimant so far still try to settle bilaterally and not bringing others in.

In the end what Prabowo's put in his article, can be said as possition that shares by most of other ASEAN members. Engaging and cooperation with China is inevitable for most of SEA nations. Be prepared defense wise, but keep engaging in diplomatic and commercial side. Moreover make sure ASEAN settle this within ASEAN own efforts, and not bringing others as much as possible.

I think it is similar what is being said in this interview with the Deputy Secretary for Political Affairs from Indonesia. So Indonesia like most ASEAN countries wants to have good relationships with all countries, including china and the US. They also hope that both superpowers do not try to heat the situation up in SEA and contribute to peace in the region.

Indonesia braces for China-US conflict I DW News - YouTube