Ananda
The Bunker Group
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How Southeast Asia Might React in a Potential Military Conflict Over Taiwan
Beijing could seek to limit the spillover from a Taiwan conflict into the South China Sea and offer to assist in evacuation operations for Southeast Asian citizens.
How ASEAN react to Chinese Taiwan conflict, seems majority of the members will see how's the invasion perceived in happening. If invasion being unprovoked, most likely negative to China toward supporting more active Taiwan. However if it is considered China invading Taiwan after being cornered by US, then potentially overall majority will stay in the fences.
This study also related in my opinion why China become hostile more to Philippines, despites Vietnam and Malaysia (as examples) even have more military presences in SCS. The studies that shown most likely Philippines become the 'lone wolf' from other ASEAN members, on potential bring outside/external power in SCS. Perhaps that's what seems make China unproportionaly single out Philippines in confrontation.
Either way, the studies just strengthen the assessment on ASEAN dynamics. Especially against China and US conflicts.
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