Why ASEAN matters - in the era of great power competition

Ananda

Ananda

The Bunker Group
carnegieendowment.org

How Southeast Asia Might React in a Potential Military Conflict Over Taiwan

Beijing could seek to limit the spillover from a Taiwan conflict into the South China Sea and offer to assist in evacuation operations for Southeast Asian citizens.
carnegieendowment.org carnegieendowment.org

How ASEAN react to Chinese Taiwan conflict, seems majority of the members will see how's the invasion perceived in happening. If invasion being unprovoked, most likely negative to China toward supporting more active Taiwan. However if it is considered China invading Taiwan after being cornered by US, then potentially overall majority will stay in the fences.

This study also related in my opinion why China become hostile more to Philippines, despites Vietnam and Malaysia (as examples) even have more military presences in SCS. The studies that shown most likely Philippines become the 'lone wolf' from other ASEAN members, on potential bring outside/external power in SCS. Perhaps that's what seems make China unproportionaly single out Philippines in confrontation.

Either way, the studies just strengthen the assessment on ASEAN dynamics. Especially against China and US conflicts.
 
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Ananda

Ananda

The Bunker Group
www.aljazeera.com

Indonesia, Australia cement ties as ‘significant’ defence pact finalised

The move comes as Indonesia’s president-elect Prabowo Subianto prepares to take office later this year.
www.aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com


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Put it here and not in Indonesian or Australian thread, as this in my opinion can also effect the rest of ASEAN. Indonesia as biggest member and Australia also as ASEAN southern neighbors and already have defense pact with Malaysia and Singapore, can increase defense cooperation and operational tied in.

It's off course will not be aim toward China SCS, as it is diplomatically undesirable at this stage. However it is not going to hinder media and political pundits on calculating the security consequences. Indonesia and Australia both increasingly dependent with China businesses, but both also increasingly wary toward Chinese defense move. Not surprising that both shares common concern with behemoth in the north.

However both Indo and Aussie defence pact cooperation already facing up and down for decades. Domestics politics mode always prevalence toward stability defense mood between two neighbors. Even now some in Indonesia always put suspicion toward the southern neighbors on Papua issue, and I believe some in Australia also still raise concern on Indonesia stable commitment against China and human rights.

Still the matter of finding balance is increasingly matter for both nation policies makers.
 
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Ananda

Ananda

The Bunker Group

CNA reporting in first minute the ramming of Philippines and Chinese vessels on SCS. Both claiming other vessel that initiated the ramming. Guess depending on each perspective.

Then at 1:05 report this year Super Garuda Shield military exercise. The exercise that begin in 2006 between Indonesian and US Army, now already evolve on joint branches exercises and already involve regional neighbors. As ussual Indonesia will claim the exercise is not directed to anyone in the region.

The scope of exercise now branches to include cyber warfare, shown increasing importance on cyber security in current stage of military and social development. Although US and Indonesia provide most personal in exercise, in some way this exercise already becoming joint ASEAN drills.
 
Ananda

Ananda

The Bunker Group

www.dw.com

Indonesia officially becomes full member of BRICS bloc – DW – 01/07/2025

The BRICS bloc of developing nations has a tenth full member: Indonesia. The world's fourth-most populous nation officially joined the group on Monday, alongside India, Russia, China and others.
www.dw.com www.dw.com

If this is true (as I don't see official Indonesia announcement), then potentially it will be followed by Malaysia and Thailand that already BRICS Partners as Indonesia status at this moment. For that I put this in ASEAN thread as if all three ASEAN members increase their status from Partners to Members, then it will be interesting move on part of ASEAN diplomacy.

For Indonesia personaly this raise question:
  1. Indonesia and US relation as Trump already shown hostility to BRICS move on Dedolarisation. Wondering if Trump will support Boeing and rumours LM move on Indonesia fighter competition.
  2. How this going to affect Indonesia pararel bid for OECD. No secret Indonesia hope to gain access to both grouping.
Whatever the outcome on all three ASEAN members status in BRICS, this shown ASEAN continues balancing act between Global South rising powers and Western especially US ones.

Add:
No official Indonesian confirmation yet, but China already make statement welcoming Indonesia in to BRICS.

 
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Sandhi Yudha

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Ananda said:

www.dw.com

Indonesia officially becomes full member of BRICS bloc – DW – 01/07/2025

The BRICS bloc of developing nations has a tenth full member: Indonesia. The world's fourth-most populous nation officially joined the group on Monday, alongside India, Russia, China and others.
www.dw.com www.dw.com

If this is true (as I don't see official Indonesia announcement), then potentially it will be followed by Malaysia and Thailand that already BRICS Partners as Indonesia status at this moment. For that I put this in ASEAN thread as if all three ASEAN members increase their status from Partners to Members, then it will be interesting move on part of ASEAN diplomacy.

For Indonesia personaly this raise question:
  1. Indonesia and US relation as Trump already shown hostility to BRICS move on Dedolarisation. Wondering if Trump will support Boeing and rumours LM move on Indonesia fighter competition.
  2. How this going to affect Indonesia pararel bid for OECD. No secret Indonesia hope to gain access to both grouping.
Whatever the outcome on all three ASEAN members status in BRICS, this shown ASEAN continues balancing act between Global South rising powers and Western especially US ones.

Add:
No official Indonesian confirmation yet, but China already make statement welcoming Indonesia in to BRICS.

Click to expand...
I just found two articles, one is from Antara, the other from Jakartapost. I expect we can regard this is a confirmation of the BRICS-membership.
Ekonom nilai keanggotaan BRICS tingkatkan posisi tawar RI di mata OECD - ANTARA News

Indonesia joins BRICS bloc as full member - Asia & Pacific - The Jakarta Post
 
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