Why ASEAN matters - in the era of great power competition

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How Southeast Asia Might React in a Potential Military Conflict Over Taiwan

Beijing could seek to limit the spillover from a Taiwan conflict into the South China Sea and offer to assist in evacuation operations for Southeast Asian citizens.

carnegieendowment.org

How ASEAN react to Chinese Taiwan conflict, seems majority of the members will see how's the invasion perceived in happening. If invasion being unprovoked, most likely negative to China toward supporting more active Taiwan. However if it is considered China invading Taiwan after being cornered by US, then potentially overall majority will stay in the fences.

This study also related in my opinion why China become hostile more to Philippines, despites Vietnam and Malaysia (as examples) even have more military presences in SCS. The studies that shown most likely Philippines become the 'lone wolf' from other ASEAN members, on potential bring outside/external power in SCS. Perhaps that's what seems make China unproportionaly single out Philippines in confrontation.

Either way, the studies just strengthen the assessment on ASEAN dynamics. Especially against China and US conflicts.

 

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Indonesia, Australia cement ties as ‘significant’ defence pact finalised

The move comes as Indonesia’s president-elect Prabowo Subianto prepares to take office later this year.

www.aljazeera.com

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.zawya.com/en/world/australia-indonesia-agree-defence-pact-l0d36dgp%3famp=1

x.com

x.com

Put it here and not in Indonesian or Australian thread, as this in my opinion can also effect the rest of ASEAN. Indonesia as biggest member and Australia also as ASEAN southern neighbors and already have defense pact with Malaysia and Singapore, can increase defense cooperation and operational tied in.

It's off course will not be aim toward China SCS, as it is diplomatically undesirable at this stage. However it is not going to hinder media and political pundits on calculating the security consequences. Indonesia and Australia both increasingly dependent with China businesses, but both also increasingly wary toward Chinese defense move. Not surprising that both shares common concern with behemoth in the north.

However both Indo and Aussie defence pact cooperation already facing up and down for decades. Domestics politics mode always prevalence toward stability defense mood between two neighbors. Even now some in Indonesia always put suspicion toward the southern neighbors on Papua issue, and I believe some in Australia also still raise concern on Indonesia stable commitment against China and human rights.

Still the matter of finding balance is increasingly matter for both nation policies makers.

 

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CNA reporting in first minute the ramming of Philippines and Chinese vessels on SCS. Both claiming other vessel that initiated the ramming. Guess depending on each perspective.

Then at 1:05 report this year Super Garuda Shield military exercise. The exercise that begin in 2006 between Indonesian and US Army, now already evolve on joint branches exercises and already involve regional neighbors. As ussual Indonesia will claim the exercise is not directed to anyone in the region.

The scope of exercise now branches to include cyber warfare, shown increasing importance on cyber security in current stage of military and social development. Although US and Indonesia provide most personal in exercise, in some way this exercise already becoming joint ASEAN drills.