The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Fredled]

Breaking News
Gerasimov still alive. As a reminder, there were rumours that he had been killed on a strike over Crimea a few weeks ago. These rumours had never been confirmed.

Delay in 155 shell production

The story is about Canada. But Imagine the same reasoning is applied everywhere: It won;t pay off commercially.
I'm very angry: Did they pledge support to Ukraine or not?
And also, why does it take 3 years to increase production when there is an emergency?

According to CBC News sources, the government doubts that this investment will pay for itself due to the lack of long-term demand for artillery ammunition in the world. It says that if and when Ottawa decides to allocate the funds, it could be years before production increases

According to the Canadian Ministry of Defence, it will take three years to expand and modernize the production capacity of 155-mm shells.

link

Beside this, the EU has already announced that they will fail short to provide 1 million 500 thousand shells by March. Only 300 000 will be delivered.

One more Russian Su34 downed
True or not? We are waiting for Feanor to recoupe infos...
The Air Force of Ukraine has destroyed an enemy Su-34 fighter-bomber.

F16's
Some infos about training and jet donated by Netherland.
Only 4 pilots being trained in the US will be ready for summer. Another 4, a few months later. And another 4 started learning English. It's not big numbers.

However, the Nehterland will give Ukraine 24 F16's. I imagine that there will be the same number of pilots trained in Romania for these jets.
The question is when?

___________________________

But negotiations also happen because neither side is able to decisively prevail and both sides acknowledges that the cost of continuing stalemate outweighs the point of continuing their effort.

Rationally speaking it already does. But madness prevails. Now that Russians see that they have the upper hand, the prospect of peace is even more remote.

The article also talks about the failure to execute timely and orderly retreat followed by chaos and unnecessary numerous casualties. It also mentions that they didn’t expect for the RU forces to advance and for the UA defences to collapse so quickly. It talks about the communications issues, as well as some units retreating while leaving others behind. Some weren’t even aware that the withdrawal was taking place.

The Ukrainians were preparing fortifications for their retreat. They were planning for an orderly retreat with minimal casualities. So, I think that they didn't expect their defence to collapse so quickly. Rushing up reinforcements didn't save them. Perhaps increased casualties even further. According to Ukes accounts, there were 300 FAB dropped on them on a single day, and 250 the day before. This was 5x more than usual. On top of artillery and Grads. (Feanor: Sorry, I can't find the link anymore)

It should be noted that, according to maps available on line, Russians advance not only in Avdiivka but a little bit everywhere.

 

[John Fedup]

@Fredled Canadian military procurement is dysfunctional and has been for several decades. There are other examples besides the artillery shell situation, some of which are described in the Canadian threads.

 

[seaspear]

The recent amount of increased downing of Russian jets has been put down to a Patriot system being moved forward ,whether this is due to a change in leadership could be debateable ,certainly the use of fab bombs may have been addressed if not to late

 

[KipPotapych]

^ Those Patriots may need to be moved back to where they were because, combined with Russian increased production, this is a lot of missiles and the door is open, according to the report:

https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-sends-russia-hundreds-ballistic-missiles-sources-say-2024-02-21/

Iran has provided Russia with a large number of powerful surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, six sources told Reuters, deepening the military cooperation between the two U.S.-sanctioned countries.

Iran's provision of around 400 missiles includes many from the Fateh-110 family of short-range ballistic weapons, such as the Zolfaghar, three Iranian sources said. This road-mobile missile is capable of striking targets at a distance of between 300 and 700 km (186 and 435 miles), experts say.[…]

An Iranian military official - who, like the other sources, asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the information - said there had been at least four shipments of missiles and there would be more in the coming weeks. He declined to provide further details.

Another senior Iranian official said some of the missiles were sent to Russia by ship via the Caspian Sea, while others were transported by plane.

"There will be more shipments," the second Iranian official said. "There is no reason to hide it. We are allowed to export weapons to any country that we wish to."

 

[Fredled]

Those Patriots may need to be moved back

The Ukes got a few more Patriot and other SAM systems in the last weeks. Enough to bring one or two of them near the front line. A long overdue support for the troops.

ran's provision of around 400 missiles

I'm aghast at the number. How many ballistic missiles does Iran have if they can sell 400 to Russia?

When we talk about ATACMS for Ukrainians, they can hope, at best, a dozen pieces. With politicians dragging their feet.
The West should take a decision ASAP. It's Roman decadence down here.

 

[kato]

How many ballistic missiles does Iran have if they can sell 400 to Russia?

By US estimates as of early 2022 supposedly around 3,000.

Considering when the Fateh-110 was originally introduced and the size of the planned delivery it is fairly likely that what they're providing to Russia is mostly 1st and 2nd gen missiles from existing stocks near the end of their shelf life, rather than new production.

 

[Jaykaro]

This war never ceases to amaze. It's the second year of the war, and people are still gathering for useless events

Николаевский Ванёк

руснявые командиры снова отличаются великим умом и находчивым методом слить своих же подчиненных полигон вблизи Подо-Калиновки Херсонской области, руководство группировки "Днепр" приехало с проверкой огневой подготовки подразделений, которых готовят на бесполезные штурмы н.п Крынки как видно...

t.me

The leadership of the 'Dnepr' group arrived for a check of the combat training at the firing range of the Kherson region, where units are being prepared for the assault on the settlement of Krynki. As seen in the video, joint training sessions were conducted with units of the 328th Airborne Assault Regiment , 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade, minus the command staff and about 60 fighters by the Himars


The same situation happens yestarday - In Donetsk region, people were assembled at the firing range to meet a high-ranking commander, 7 km from the front line, with around 50-60 corpses reported beforehand. I won't publish the photo.



Ukrainian military on the ground report that in the town of Chasiv Yar, which could be the next target after Avdiivka, there are no defensive lines except for Soviet-era two-story buildings. Military personnel from the town of Kurakhove provide similar approximate reports

 

[vikingatespam]

The recent amount of increased downing of Russian jets has been put down to a Patriot system being moved forward ,whether this is due to a change in leadership could be debateable ,certainly the use of fab bombs may have been addressed if not to late

While we dont have confirmation of all the UKR claimed losses, if true, this is quite a beating in the last week or two. That mobile Patriot battery must be enemy#1 for the RU at this point. Maybe that Patriot crew is getting paid by the plane ?

 

[Feanor]

This war never ceases to amaze. It's the second year of the war, and people are still gathering for useless events

Николаевский Ванёк

руснявые командиры снова отличаются великим умом и находчивым методом слить своих же подчиненных полигон вблизи Подо-Калиновки Херсонской области, руководство группировки "Днепр" приехало с проверкой огневой подготовки подразделений, которых готовят на бесполезные штурмы н.п Крынки как видно...

t.me

I haven't had time for a proper update, but reportedly there were 3 such incidents lately, though allegedly relatively small as far as gatherings go, with KIA numbers "only" in double digits. However the stupidity is real. Of course there is Selidovo... Maybe Russians and Ukrainians really are one people.

Breaking News
Gerasimov still alive. As a reminder, there were rumours that he had been killed on a strike over Crimea a few weeks ago. These rumours had never been confirmed.

I wouldn't exactly call it breaking news. Ukraine has "killed" Gerasimov 2-3 times so far? I'm sure they'll kill him a few more times. Dastardly Russians and their necromancy.

One more Russian Su34 downed
True or not? We are waiting for Feanor to recoupe infos...
The Air Force of Ukraine has destroyed an enemy Su-34 fighter-bomber.

Russian sources say it's an Su-35 that went down, the second in recent days, and it's still unclear if it was Ukrainian or Russian friendly fire, though it was allegedly ~160kms from the front. The pilot is KIA.

Fighterbomber

По потерям авиации Лаоса по состоянию на сейчас ситуация без изменений. За все последние дни было потеряно два Су-35. Видео с горящим самолетом реальное, это горит Су-35, летчика с которого спасли. Погиб один летчик-истребитель. Причины выясняют. Работают комиссии. Ничего больше не сбито и...

t.me

While we dont have confirmation of all the UKR claimed losses, if true, this is quite a beating in the last week or two. That mobile Patriot battery must be enemy#1 for the RU at this point. Maybe that Patriot crew is getting paid by the plane ?

I wouldn't trust those claims. We have confirmation of two downed jets, one friendly fire and one a mystery. A roving Patriot battery taking potshots at Russian jets from afar could very well do this, and have many engagements where they launched at a far away target, and the Russian jet disappeared from their radar, leading them to believe a downing took place. On the flip side Russia definitely has a hard time dealing with Ukrainian SAMs. Russia has the munitions to destroy them, the failure lies in the C4ISR department.

 

[Fredled]

Isn't it a change in rules of engagement while using western weapons. It seems that NATO doesn't care much anymore about red lines.

Ukraine has the right to self-defense, including striking (with F16's) legitimate Russian military targets outside Ukraine.

link

 

[kato]

Isn't it a change in rules of engagement while using western weapons.

NATO doesn't dictate Ukrainian rules of engagement.

And what he says there is that given this established right it is up to each ally to decide whether and when to send systems for such action, and that NATO (i.e. he) doesn't give them any guidance in that.

 

[KipPotapych]

According to UA, an Abrams was participating in battle in Stepove:

✙DeepState✙

Танк "Abrams" 47 ОМБр кошмарить кацапів в Степовому Перші кадри роботи цієї американської бойової машини в нашій війні. deepstatemap.live/#15/48.1940/37.6848 МапаБлогНаписати нам ЗСУHelpМагазинДонат

t.me

According to RU, they destroyed one M1150 in the same area:

Рыбарь

Вчера в сети были опубликованы кадры уничтожения очень редкой и дефицитной инженерной техники, поставленной заокеанскими партнерами т.н. Украине. В районе Степового (Петровского) была поражена штурмовая машина разминирования M1150 Assault Breacher Vehicle (ABV) на базе танка M1 Abrams. Она...

t.me

 

[KipPotapych]

Sounds like the Russians took out an A-50 in another friendly fire incident. Can’t make this stuff up.

Военный Осведомитель

❗️Кадры поражения очередного А-50 ВКС России, упавшего возле хутора Трудовая Армения в Каневском районе Краснодарского края. На первом видео видно, как борт отчаянно пытается уйти от ударов и отстреливает тепловые ловушки, однако зенитные ракеты все равно его настигают. На других видео горящие...

t.me

 

[Feanor]

Sounds like the Russians took out an A-50 in another friendly fire incident. Can’t make this stuff up.

Военный Осведомитель

❗️Кадры поражения очередного А-50 ВКС России, упавшего возле хутора Трудовая Армения в Каневском районе Краснодарского края. На первом видео видно, как борт отчаянно пытается уйти от ударов и отстреливает тепловые ловушки, однако зенитные ракеты все равно его настигают. На других видео горящие...

t.me

It's completely unclear what's happening or why, but the location it's happening seems to be the same, the southern parts of the LDNR, and Russian South MD area. It seems there is a major problem with coordination in that area and it's a repeating issue. What's really strange is that it started happening at this point in the war. Why now?

 

[John Fedup]

Not sure if this is the best thread for this link. I have only skimmed but the naval lessons are interesting (Black Sea versus large blue ocean operations) with UAVs. Look forward to member comments about the other lessons learned in the article.

Ukraine war turns 2: Lessons learned and what comes next - Breaking Defense

 

[Jaykaro]

If we remove the version with the fighter that flew so far, then Ukraine's version with the S-200 looks like the only viable version with a-50U. Or of course friendly fire, but over the Sea of Azov, you can still somehow mistake it for an enemy fighter, but here, so far in the back

 

[Fredled]

If we remove the version with the fighter that flew so far, then Ukraine's version with the S-200 looks like the only viable version with a-50U. Or of course friendly fire, but over the Sea of Azov, you can still somehow mistake it for an enemy fighter, but here, so far in the back

It looks to me impossible to mistake it for an incoming enemy fighter because of its size, its speed, its march route , circling above 24/7, and emitting packs of radar beams...
Note that the location of the crash is where it has last been seen on the radars, not where it was hit. It could have flown 100 miles after being hit, until it crashed.

If Russian SAM operators did it twice in a row, Zelensky should come in person to give them a medal (The Order Of Yaroslav The Wise or whatever) for the best joke of the year.
But the odds are higher that the medal will go to the Uke Air Force members.

 

[Fredled]

NATO doesn't dictate Ukrainian rules of engagement.

And what he says there is that given this established right it is up to each ally to decide whether and when to send systems for such action, and that NATO (i.e. he) doesn't give them any guidance in that.

No but, Americans made abundantly clear that none of their weapon, especially HIMARS, should strike the Russian territory and most, if not all, Western partners said something of the same effect.
Jens Stoltenberg would never say that F16's can be used to hit targets inside Russia if leaders of the F16 Coalition didn't decide so explicitly. It will be the first time that Ukrainians strike Russia with Western weapons (at least openly). Not only using F16;s but the bombs and missiles they will carry won't be subject to the limitations that applied until now. If they allow it for F16 missions, there is chances that they will allow it for other weapons.

IMO, Ukrainians should be allowed to strike military targets up to 100 miles beyond their borders. It's not fair that Russians can fire from Russia and Ukrainians not be allowed to strike back.

 

[KipPotapych]

It's completely unclear what's happening or why, but the location it's happening seems to be the same, the southern parts of the LDNR, and Russian South MD area. It seems there is a major problem with coordination in that area and it's a repeating issue. What's really strange is that it started happening at this point in the war. Why now?

In the link I posted to the Telegram channel, the first video where the plane gets hit clearly suggests that the crew was aware of the incoming missile, no? Also, the people talking about it being a drone due to the low altitude of flight. Then there is the first explosion, suggesting at least two missiles being fired. Overall, I agree with the statements that it is hard, not necessarily impossible though, to reconcile the (repeated) friendly fire. But the little knowledge I have in the field provides for no valuable input.

If it was, in fact, friendly fire… Like I said, you can’t make this stuff up.

It looks to me impossible to mistake it for an incoming enemy fighter because of its size, its speed, its march route , circling above 24/7, and emitting packs of radar beams...
Note that the location of the crash is where it has last been seen on the radars, not where it was hit. It could have flown 100 miles after being hit, until it crashed.

From the video it appears that it didn’t travel that far after being hit.

Edit: A map from the RU source suggest that the crush took place at least 210-250 km from the frontline:

I also do not see the S-200 version being viable simply due to complexity and randomness, for the lack of a better word, but, again, my knowledge in the field here is pretty limited.

 

[Feanor]

It looks to me impossible to mistake it for an incoming enemy fighter because of its size, its speed, its march route , circling above 24/7, and emitting packs of radar beams...
Note that the location of the crash is where it has last been seen on the radars, not where it was hit. It could have flown 100 miles after being hit, until it crashed.

If Russian SAM operators did it twice in a row, Zelensky should come in person to give them a medal (The Order Of Yaroslav The Wise or whatever) for the best joke of the year.
But the odds are higher that the medal will go to the Uke Air Force members.

Apparently Russian SAM operators after all. It appears they filmed themselves doing it... interestingly enough it appears they were trying to hit a Ukrainian UAV that was in the area, but shot down a friendly aircraft instead. This is slightly more logical then straight friendly fire, but it's still embarrassing, especially when one considers the ugly pattern. And of course it suggests Ukraine is doing this on purpose. So maybe medals for them after all?

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Вот это уже интересно… походу зря всякие версии выдвигал про истребители и С-200 и Ф-16…

t.me