The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Well. Of course, if Russians win the war, they win the war. I was just saying what's the most probable way Ukraine could win the war. Not that they will. Time will tell.
Define win. Expel Russia from Crimea? Cause Russia to pack in and surrender Donetsk?

Do you think that Russia keeps an updated database available to the public? :p
There are standards on this forum. When claims are made evidence is required. The logic of "I believe X but I can't prove it to you because the dastardly Russians hid the evidence" doesn't fly. If you don't have evidence, you don't know that this is the case. And your reply appears to also be rather lazy. Immediately above you vikingatespam posted the data in question. Meaning the data is available.

There are studies on the distribution of RU casualties:


Although this one is a little dated. I saw one more recently on the Project Owl Discord, but I will have to find it.
Much appreciated, thank you. If you manage to find the more up to date numbers, please do share.
 

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
For example, NATO wants to coordinate weapons aid to Ukraine (in German, so maybe a German member (kato?) can add some clarity as I only read it via Google translate):
Behind Paywall for me, but from articles citing that source it apparently says that the US Security Advisor Sullivan and NATO SecGen Stoltenberg drafted up plans to move the (currently independent) "Ramstein Format" to within NATO. This is primarily supported by Eastern Europeans, but also the UK and France.

Germany is apparently skeptical, partly because such a move would support Putin's "legend" of Ukraine being a war against NATO, and partly because the current "Ramstein Format" makes it easier to include partners outside NATO. Current attending countries to the "Ramstein Format" meetings outside NATO include e.g. Japan, Israel and a number of African countries, but also some former USSR countries like Moldavia or Azerbaijan.

Meanwhile the reason for the US government to push for integrating "Ramstein Format" into NATO seems to be explained in the article as laying primarily in domestic politics, i.e. a precaution moving the lead of these meetings from the US to NATO in order to prevent Trump from being able to pretty much cancel wider international aid to Ukraine through them.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Oskol Front.

There are reports of Russian advances north-east of Sin'kovka, but outside the village.


Russian forces are continuing to inch forward towards Terny. The end goal is clear, to push Ukraine across the Zherebets, but Russia seems to not consider this a priority.


Russian forces setting up tank traps near Krasniy Liman raising questions.


We have evidence of Ukrainain GLSDB use against targets near Kremennaya.


Seversk bulge.


Russia has resumed offensive actions northward, east of Veseloe, along the rail line. If I understand the geography correctly the rail line lies along an elevated area and control of it makes advance in surrounding low lands much easier. In principle this road leads to Viyemki, and would threaten Spornoe from the west.


Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Russian forces are continuing to push westward of Artemovsk/Bakhmut. After efforts in Bogdanovka and Grigorievka stalled, it seems Russia's focus has shifted southward to the village of Ivanovskoe/Krasnoe. Russian forces have taken ground north of the road, towards Bogdanovka including the hill there.


Russian copter munition drops around Chasov Yar. They're burning a disabled MBT, and hitting Ukrainian infantry.


Russian UMPK and Uragan strikes in Chasov Yar. If Russia really intends to shift focus to this axis, we will see more of these. Note the source claims Uragan-1M was used. This is an Uragan replacement system on a different chassis using packet-reloaded missiles. To the best of my knowledge a single TEL of this exists. What we have seen recently is a bucket of regular BM-27 launchers on new BAZ chassis, and I wouldn't be surprised if someone mistook them for the 1M variant.


Russian loitering munition from the 200th Arctic MRBde striking either an MBT near Bogdanovka.


Destroyed Ukrainian vehicles in Chasov Yar including an SUV, a Humvee, and a buggy. It's unclear if this is related to the above-mentioned strike.


98th VDV near Chasov Yar apparently captures a Ukrainian position and then repels an attack.


A rare Ukrainian BTR-4 getting hit in Chasov Yar. We haven't seen these for a while, it's possible a fresh unit was rotated in.


Avdeevka.

Russian forces are reportedly pushing towards Lastochkino, but the village is still in Ukrainian hands. This comes after prior reports of Russia taking the village.


Ukrainian forces using the Black Hornet Nano in Avdeevka.


Ukrainian infantry walking out of Avdeevka.


Russian forces striking Ukrainian troops retreating from Avdeevka.


Russian forces report full control of the chemical plant. There are unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces withdrew despite instructions to try and hold it.


Allegedly a Ukrainian Bradley finishing off a knocked out Leopard and another Bradley that Russian forces hit. Note it's normal practice to destroy a vehicle you can't evacuate to prevent capture.


Destroyed Ukrainian vehiles litter the roads around Avdeevka. The withdrawal clearly did not go smoothly.


Russia hitting allegedly a Ukrainian MBT near Avdeevka.


A Russian loitering munition strike on a Ukrainian BMP, allegedly near Avdeevka.


Ukrainian KIA litter the ruins of Avdeevka. Warning footage of corpses.


Casualties continue to get reported among Azov fighters. Despite spending a relatively short amount of time in the town, they seem to have gotten hit pretty hard.


Ukrainian POWs taken near Avdeevka. It seems mostly small groups, though we have quite a few such groups. Total numbers are not available, but from what I've seen so far it's 50-100 so far. Here we have a group of 4 helping carry out a Russian WIA (1st link), and a few others with varying circumstances.


A Ukrainian T-64BV and Bradley allegedly captured by Russian forces near Avdeevka. Reportedly the Bradley is the same we saw knocked out on a landmine near Tsarskaya Ohota in a failed Ukrainian counter-attack.


Assorted abandoned Ukrainian kit in Avdeevka.


Photos from inside the Zenit strong point, captured by Russian forces.


Some footage of the ruins of Avdeevk and allegedly civilian survivors, who are staunchly anti-Ukrainain and pro-DNR. In principle this makes sense. Anyone pro-Ukrainian would have evacuated when they were required to. Because Ukrainian forces withdrew without a fight for every building the town is actually in much better shape then Artemovsk/Bakhmut, but it's an open question whether rebuilding it makes any sense. Who would live there? And of cousre nobody will rebuild until the front line is pushed significantly westward.


Civilians evacuated by Russia from the ruins of Avdeevka. Note the numbers appear quite small.


There are reports Syrskiy is moving reserves from Kiev region to the Avdeevka axis.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Pervomayskoe.

Russian forces are continuing to advance around Pervomayskoe. We have Russian advances towards Nevel'skoe, south-west of Pervomayskoe. Russia is also pushing inside Pervomayskoe and now controls about half of the village.With the fighting around Avdeevka this location clearly has become of secondary importance for Ukraine allowing Russia to gain ground.


Novomihailovka.


Russian forces have entered the village of Pobeda, north-north-west of Novomihailovka, and south-west of Mar'inka. The fall of this village opens the road to envelopment of Novomihailovka and even Paraskovievka, as the road it sits on leads straight to Konstantinovka, and from there to Ugledar. Simultaneously Russian forces continue to slowly advance inside Novomihailovka on the northern side, and are gaining ground south-west of Novomihailovka as they push to the 00532 road from Mar'inka to Ugledar.


Russian forces hitting a Ukrainian strong point near Pobeda.


A Ukrainina Leo-2A4 with K-1 armor has fallen into a major crater near Pobeda, and gotten stuck. Russia them attempts to finish it off using copter-dropped munitions though with unclear results.


Ukrainain POWs taken near Novomihailovka.


Vremyevskiy bulge.


Russia has begun advancing in the Vremyevskiy bulge area, west of Novodonetskoe. So far they're recapturing bits and pieces of what they lost in the Ukrainian summer push.


Rabotino salient/Zaporozhye.


Russian forces are pushing northward, west of Verbovoe gaining ground, and threatening Ukrainian positions dead west of the village with encirclement, no doubt intending to force them to withdraw. Simultaneously Russian forces have approached Rabotino from the south and the west, and are now fighting on the outskirts. No doubt if the eastern half is successful, they will push westward and complete envelopment of Rabotino. Reportedly from Russia the 42nd MRDiv is involved.


Russian artillery fires 70th MRRgt, 42nd MRDiv, against Ukrainian vehicles in the Rabotino salient.


Russian strikes on Ukrainian infantry west of Verbovoe.


A knocked out and abandoned Bradley in the Rabotino salient, with a buggy frame thrown on top of it by an explosion.


A Ukrainian M109 destroyed north of Pyatihatka, near Stepovoe.


A Ukrainian Bukovel' EW station hit by a Russian loitering munition.


A Russian T-55 knocked out in Zaporozhye. Reportedly it participated in recent attacks. This is a definite departure from prior practice and of course this vehicle is badly outmatched on the modern battlefield.


Wreckage of that downed Ukrainian Mi-17V5 in the Rabotino salient. We also have an obituary for a Ukrainian airforce captain and Mi-17 pilot, that could be related.


A Ukrainian CR-2 somewhere in Zaporozhye. If accurate it means the 82nd Para-Assault is deployed here and not in reserve.


Russian strikes.

Footage has emerged of what appears to be a Russian Tornado-S strike on Selidovo. Given that the village has been hit multiple times, it's unclear which of the strikes is seen here.


An interesting look at a recent strike in Selidovo that hit a residential building. The analysis argues that the strike couldnt' have been Russian because the building shields it from landing from the Russian side, and the strike would have to have come from the opposite direction. However the Tornado-S has airburst munitions and Russia has used those, some of which would go straight down after detonating, instead of landing at an agle like a typical missile or shell. Given the footage above, this might be confirmation of a Russian strike rather then a refutation.


Reportedly Russia has used Kh-69 LO cruise missiles against Ukraine. This munition in particular is a Kh-59 adaptation for use from the internal bays on an Su-57.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Other interesting tidbits.

Apparently Russian forces downed a Bashee Jet 80 near Novoazovsk. I don't believe we've seen Ukraine use these before.


A Ukrainian Strela-10 attempts to down a Russian Zala UAV but fails, and is then hit by a loitering munition.


Ukraine successfully hit a Russian fuel storage facility in Kursk region.


A rare Ukrainian M80 IFV destroyed, location and context unclear.


Russia downed a friendly Su-35 near Dyakovo. This is southern Lugansk region right next to the Russian border and is frankly an embarassing incident, the latest of many. Despite this being a known issue, problems persist.


An interesting Russian R-149 command vehicle on the BTR-80 chassis with an extra armor kit installed.


An uparmored Russian fuel truck with anti-UAV mesh around the cistern, and armor for the front of the cabin.


Ukrainian sources show off a captured Tigr armored car in Ukrainian colors. Note this is a relatively rare original Tigr, no armored engine compartment.


A captured BMP-3M with extra armor kit in Ukrainian hands. Circumstances and context unclear.


Ukrainian soldiers loading their Grad with Pakistani-made rockets. Russia isn't the only one who can source munitions in third-world countries.


A rare Ukrainian BTR-3 still in action. The type was uncommon before the war, and quite a few were lost in the fighting. It's essentially a BTR-80 with a turret upgrade.


Ukrainian soldiers show off tehir AIFV-B-C25, 15th Border Guards Bde.


A Ukrainian T-64BV with sidscreens made of stones in a wire net, reminiscent of Syrian T-72s.


A Ukrainian UPA leader and his wife were blown up in their car near Odessa. It would not surprise me to hear Russian intelligence agencies are at work, and it's a sad mirroring of similar despicable tactics by Ukraine.


Russia is continuing to show off reconstruction efforts in Mariupol'. This time it's an orthopedic medical center, that specializes in artificial limbs. Which seems particularly relevant given the war. It's important to note that these efforts are plagued by corruption, waste, and inefficiency. However the resources directed are quite significant and as a result Mariupol' is very much alive as a city, though much smaller then it was previously. This is in contrast to places like Severodonetsk-Lisichansk, or Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Russia has also commenced large scale deliveries of medical vehicles, buses, and other government vehicles to agencies within the LNR, DNR, and occupied portions of Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.


We have an interesting admission from Ukraine that 155mm shells from one manufacturer don't always work with artillery systems from another.

 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
have an interesting admission from Ukraine that 155mm shells from one manufacturer don't always work with artillery systems from another.
I also read this from other accounts in X and Telegram. It is originate from Pro Ukrainian bloger. Those 155mm ammo supposedly build for NATO standard. Thus quite interesting if they cannot work with all 155mm gun that Ukranian has. They are afterall also 155mm NATO standard gun. Ukranian doesn’t have 155mm gun from Norinco or even Non Euro and US originating.
 

Larry_L

Active Member
Quick point. If you look at where in Lugansk region Dyakovo is, it becomes obvious that Ukraine didn't down the Su-35S in question (and it has nothing to do with Avdeevka). Russian sources confirm the loss, and the rescue of the downed pilot, but claim friendly fire, which given the location is by far the likeliest explanation. Ukrainian sources talked about downing Russian Su-34s but no evidence has emerged, whereas for the Su-35S we have footage of the downing, footage of the rescue, and confirmation. Most notably Fighterbomber dismisses it as false, and he has been a great source for confirming losses in the past. On a side note some Russian social media sources claimed Russia had gained air superiority over Avdeevka and was able to drop non-gliding bombs as well on the targets. I never saw any confirmation, but it's interesting that ISW is saying as much. I wonder how they know.
I appreciate the clarification. Your sources frequently are better than mine. This brings to mind a fairly humorous statement by Putin concerning the downing of the Il-76 at the end of January. I have never found confirmation on who shot down the aircraft, or who was on board. What keeps nagging at my mind is the statement by Putin that this is impossible due to IFF. There have been many claims that Putin is uninformed, or misinformed, on many of the negative events in this war. I cannot make up my mind on whether he does not know, deceives himself, or is just misinforming the public. I sometimes think Russia does not require "plausible deniability", but only Implausible deniability. I picture the Russian pilots rolling their eyes seeing Putin making the statement that. Quote "There are 'friend or foe' systems there, and no matter how much the operator presses the button, our air defence systems would not work,"



 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
appreciate the clarification. Your sources frequently are better than mine. This brings to mind a fairly humorous statement by Putin concerning the downing of the Il-76 at the end of January. I have never found confirmation on who shot down the aircraft, or who was on board. What keeps nagging at my mind is the statement by Putin that this is impossible due to IFF. There have been many claims that Putin is uninformed, or misinformed, on many of the negative events in this war. I cannot make up my mind on whether he does not know, deceives himself, or is just misinforming the public. I sometimes think Russia does not require "plausible deniability", but only Implausible deniability. I picture the Russian pilots rolling their eyes seeing Putin making the statement that. Quote "There are 'friend or foe' systems there, an
Based on fragments found at the site, Russian sources are claiming it was a Patriot missile that downed it.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
This brings to mind a fairly humorous statement by Putin concerning the downing of the Il-76 at the end of January. I have never found confirmation on who shot down the aircraft, or who was on board.
Don’t think there are any questions about who shot it down and with what. Likely the prisoners on board reports are also true. From a NYT article:

A Russian plane shot down with a Patriot missile was probably carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war, U.S. officials say.

U.S. officials say Ukraine should continue to develop innovative ways to strike at Russian forces as the war approaches its third year. But Ukraine’s use of a Patriot missile to take down a plane last month is an example of how novel battlefield tactics can be fraught with peril as well as promise.

Unbeknown to Ukraine’s military, the Russian aircraft it targeted may have been carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war, according to U.S. officials.

The Patriot is a defensive system, usually used to protect a location and not to shoot down planes. A European partner provided the Patriot interceptor that hit the Russian Ilyushin-76 cargo plane on Jan. 24, according to American officials briefed on the incident.

Russian officials immediately claimed the aircraft was carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war, who were to be exchanged for Russian service members.

Publicly, American officials will not comment on what brought down the plane, though officials who spoke privately on the condition of anonymity said the reports of a Patriot missile being used were accurate.

The question of who was on the plane is less clear. American officials have not confirmed the identities of the passengers, but they said it appeared probable that at least some of them were Ukrainian prisoners. U.S. and Ukrainian officials say Russia may have overstated the number of deaths.



What keeps nagging at my mind is the statement by Putin that this is impossible due to IFF. There have been many claims that Putin is uninformed, or misinformed, on many of the negative events in this war. I cannot make up my mind on whether he does not know, deceives himself, or is just misinforming the public.
If I were to bet, I’d bet on the latter
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Sweden presented it's 15th and (so far) largest defense package to Ukraine; 7.1 billion SEK (830 million USD). This brings the total value of Swedish military assistance to Ukraine since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022 to 30 billion SEK (2.88 billion USD).

Main items:
* 10 CB-90 combat boats
* 20 smaller g-boats
* mines and torpedoes
* artillery ammunition worth 1 billion SEK (192 million USD)
* RBS 70 MANPADS
* anti-tank missiles
* Carl Gustaf grenade launchers
* hand grenades
* medical supplies

Sweden unveils its largest defense aid package for Ukraine worth $682 million (kyivindependent.com)

Sweden has also previously said they might transfer some Gripen C/D once they become NATO members. Not a wise thing to say, no doubt Putin is putting a lot of pressure on his key asset in Hungary, who is still blocking NATO membership...
Putin meets Hungarian PM Orban on sidelines of Belt and Road forum in China (aa.com.tr)
Orbán boycotts parliament session called to ratify Swedish Nato bid | Nato | The Guardian

The Nordic countries keep contributing. Denmark is one of the biggest providers (in % of GDP but also in absolute terms -- 8.4 Billion EUR so far!) and has recently announced they will donate all the remaining artillery with ammo: PM says Denmark to donate all its artillery to Ukraine (kyivindependent.com)
 
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Jaykaro

Member
Generally, this is what we have at the beginning of 2024 for anyone who might have missed it

-Finland announced its 22nd military aid package to Ukraine on February 9th, worth 220 million euros, but the contents are traditionally kept secret.

-Norway authorized direct sales and supplies of weapons to Ukraine on January 1st, 2024, including the acquisition of NASAMS surface-to-air missile launchers and command posts.

-Germany announced the transfer or production of weapons to Ukraine, including Pzh 2000 and RCH-155 self-propelled artillery units, air defense systems, hundreds of logistic vehicles, infantry fighting vehicles, drones like the RQ-35 HEIDRUN, SeaKing helicopters, small arms, and much more. Ukraine will become the first operator of the RCH-155 self-propelled artillery.

-France decided to strengthen the Ukrainian army with deliveries of missiles, modern drones, and guided bombs. This includes dozens of missiles and thousands of bombs, as well as the production of dozens of CAESAR self-propelled howitzers

-Australia is allocating 50 million dollars to the International Fund for Ukraine, established by the United Kingdom

-Canada allocated 15 million US dollars for the production of 10 multi-purpose Zodiac Hurricane boats and will provide Ukraine with over 800 multi-purpose SkyRanger R70 drones.

-Japan also contributed significantly, despite its distance from Ukraine, by allocating a record package of 4.7 billion euros on February 19th

-Belgium plans to allocate 611 million euros to Ukraine in 2024

-The Netherlands allocated 2 billion euros for arms supplies to Ukraine this year, of which 122 million euros have already been allocated.

-The United Kingdom signed a new security agreement and announced 2.5 billion pounds sterling for 2024, of which 200 million pounds will be allocated for the acquisition and delivery of strike and maritime drones to Ukraine

-Lithuania announced the acceptance of a long-term military aid package for Ukraine worth 200 million euros.

-Estonia stated it will allocate 0.25% of its GDP to Ukraine over the next 4 years.

-Latvia announced a new military aid package, including artillery, ammunition, helicopters, drones, communication devices, equipment, and anti-tank weapons.

-Poland will also provide a new military aid package to Ukraine this year, with discussions underway for joint weapon production.





Russia continues its attack on the Ugledar direction - 3 destroyed tanks, 5 MICV, and 5 MT-LBs.


Equally interesting destructions. Ukrainian "Bulava" strike unit destroys enemy hangar with russian equipment with FPV drones "Wild Hornets":
-Two AZP S-60
-Two T72
-BMP 3
-BMPT "Terminator
-Two Ural trucks with ammunition

 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
Define win. Expel Russia from Crimea? Cause Russia to pack in and surrender Donetsk?
Officialy, yes. For Ukraine, it's recovering all the territories and the total withdrawal of Russian troops.
As it's obviousely not realistic given the present course of events, we could imagine different forms of peace agreement including special statu or recognized as Russian for some regions currently under occupation. Whether such agreement would be considered as a victory or a defeat for one or the other will be subject to personal opinions. None of the parties would have achieved their goal.
(My personal opinion is that if Ukraine can keep all the territories it currently controls, it will be already a big victory for them. But that's just my opinion.)

It's impossible to say wheter Ukraine would be willing to permanently cede territories. It would be a permanent loss for Ukraine and, by definition, a defeat. But peace may be worth it, if both sides are able to come back to reason.

However Russia could leave Ukraine and Crimea without losing anything. Putin tries to take something that didn't legally belongs to Russia. Returning to the 1992 borders would be a defeat for Putin, yet, not a loss for Russia, since Russia would keep everything it had before the war.

In the event of regime change in Russia, complete Russian withdrawal will be likely if this new regime will be willing to end the war quickly because it will be positively accepted by the Russian population.
It will also be the best outcome for Russia because it could restore normal relations with the West, the end of sanctions, return to private foreign investments, trade deals etc. The economic advantages will be enormous.

Unfortunately I think that this war will last as long as Putin is at the power. I'm not even sure that a total surrender of the Ukrainian government and the dissolution of the Ukrainian state would bring peace because Putin will use exactly the same reasons to look for troubles with East European countries as he did with Ukraine. He will start by demanding that East European countries left NATO.

I don't believe in "Ukaine as a buffer zone" as proposed by Viktor Orban. Ukraine will either belong to the West or to Russia. In the Kremlin's mind, the buffer zone should be Poland, not Ukraine.

Feanor said:
There are standards on this forum. When claims are made evidence is required.
I understand. But what I said, were not claims. It was notorious. ;)
(It's true that I could complete my theories with external links.)

Feanor said:
Russian forces setting up tank traps near Krasniy Liman raising questions.
These dragon teeth looks a little bit weak. They could prevent tanks from driving fast on a straight line. But the obstacles will be removed within minutes.
Could be good for an ambush.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
It's normal. They are closer to Russia.
Yes to some extent but is Denmark closer to Russia than Germany? Denmark contributed the most of the Nordic countries (8.4 billion EUR!) and with Finland and soon also Sweden joining NATO, the Baltic Sea becomes a NATO lake.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
For Ukraine, it's recovering all the territories and the total withdrawal of Russian troops.
The premise of this is Ukraine is able to actually achieve military victory on the field or convince Russia that it is inevitable. Then Ukraine can dictate terms and so the spoils go to the winners.

But negotiations also happen because neither side is able to decisively prevail and both sides acknowledges that the cost of continuing stalemate outweights the point of continuing their effort.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Ukrainian POWs taken near Avdeevka. It seems mostly small groups, though we have quite a few such groups. Total numbers are not available, but from what I've seen so far it's 50-100 so far. Here we have a group of 4 helping carry out a Russian WIA (1st link), and a few others with varying circumstances.
The NYT article suggests that between 850 and 1,000 were either captured or otherwise unaccounted for. They are citing a couple of UA “soldiers with the knowledge” and “western officials” confirming that the range is in line. That would be just from the retreat alone. UA officials of course denied the report and refered to it as misinformation. One “senior UA official” said only six were captured. I think it would be reasonable to assume that the confirmed numbers (KIA, WIA, etc) may be significantly higher. Looks like the worst “strategic retreat yet”.


The article also talks about the failure to execute timely and orderly retreat followed by chaos and unnecessary numerous casualties. It also mentions that they didn’t expect for the RU forces to advance and for the UA defences to collapse so quickly. It talks about the communications issues, as well as some units retreating while leaving others behind. Some weren’t even aware that the withdrawal was taking place.

The article states that, according to the UA government, as of November, there were 3,574 Ukrainian prisoners of war in Russia. An increase of 25-30% (probably a conservative estimate) in a couple of days is quite significant.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
There are studies on the distribution of RU casualties:


Although this one is a little dated. I saw one more recently on the Project Owl Discord, but I will have to find it.
Thanks for the article. I will take a look.

I would propose, however, that the earlier suggestion of “concealing” what is happening by drafting Buryats or some other minorities is a little nuts due the greatness of the numbers alone. I would think that would be sufficient to repel the “concealment” theory, but likely a major factor in statistical over representation would be the socioeconomic reasons and, hence, the increased willingness to volunteer or sign a contract. After all, those aren’t the wealthiest segments of the population of Russia. Likely the crime rates are higher as well, so the number of imprisoned volunteers would also likely be higher in adjusted statical sense.

Edit: I skipped through the article and read the conclusion, that basically talks about what I said about above. Additional factors that may account for discrepancy are the higher fertility rates (more willing young men), as well as traditional appeal of military. Possibility of varying enrolment quotas is also mentioned.

What is also mentioned is that the fatality rate among the ethnic Russians recruited from the same regions is comparable to those of the minorities. Also, the increased fatalities are only observed for the recruits from Burytia and Tuva, while other minority regions, such as Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, etc are in line with the rest of the “Russian” Russia.

Lastly, the “poors” being more expandable due to their willingness over monetary incentives is nothing new and is not exclusive to Russia, which the article also talks about.

Edit 2: Here is another angle. While Tuva is very “Tuvan”, ie only 11% of the population are other ethnicities, Buryatia is mostly Russian - 64% ethnic Russians vs 34% Buryats. This strongly suggests that socioeconomic factors are likely at play here rather than a conspiracy to enrol the minorities because they are more expandable than ethnic Russians. In other words, those economically disadvantage are always going to be more vulnerable than their better off counterparts, regardless of ethnicity.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The NYT article suggests that between 850 and 1,000 were either captured or otherwise unaccounted for. They are citing a couple of UA “soldiers with the knowledge” and “western officials” confirming that the range is in line. That would be just from the retreat alone. UA officials of course denied the report and refered to it as misinformation. One “senior UA official” said only six were captured. I think it would be reasonable to assume that the confirmed numbers (KIA, WIA, etc) may be significantly higher. Looks like the worst “strategic retreat yet”.


The article also talks about the failure to execute timely and orderly retreat followed by chaos and unnecessary numerous casualties. It also mentions that they didn’t expect for the RU forces to advance and for the UA defences to collapse so quickly. It talks about the communications issues, as well as some units retreating while leaving others behind. Some weren’t even aware that the withdrawal was taking place.

The article states that, according to the UA government, as of November, there were 3,574 Ukrainian prisoners of war in Russia. An increase of 25-30% (probably a conservative estimate) in a couple of days is quite significant.
They're quoting MIA and POW combined. I suspect most of them are KIA. Avdeevka and the area around it are littered with Ukrainian KIA. I'm not seeing the kinds of mass surrender associated with those numbers. All the groups we see are single digits. It wouldn't surprise me if the numbers were as high as 200-300 POW, but that's the high end.
 
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