The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

If the RU are so good at intercepting SS, why are ships of the black sea fleet constantly being given early retirement ? Do we have an accurate accounting of SS missile attacks and interceptions ?

We have a limited number of carefully planned strikes often with days of probing by modified S-200s and UAVs prior to that to map out Russian air defenses. We then have a launch typically of 4-8 missiles of which some get through and some don't. This indicates that Russian air defenses represent a substantial obstacle and Ukraine has to put in considerable effort to penetrate them.

 

[seaspear]

This video claims to show Belgorod air defence remnants of missile in child's bedroom being claimed as Ukrainian , might be fog of war but anything fired into the air is bound to come down irrespective of who fired it

 

[Feanor]

This video claims to show Belgorod air defence remnants of missile in child's bedroom being claimed as Ukrainian , might be fog of war but anything fired into the air is bound to come down irrespective of who fired it

I didn't watch the entire 13 minutes so forgive me if he circles back to it but it seems to me that he's talking about the incident in Voronezh region, unrelated to the events in Belgorod.

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Note Pantsyrs appear to have been mainly used for air defense in Belgorod from subsequent Ukrainian strike attempts and missile stages from them did fall to the ground. However they clearly don't produce the types of impacts we saw in that video.

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Some footage of the follow-on strikes on Belgorod that appear to all have been intercepted.

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[Larry_L]

We may never know for sure what the target in Belgorod was. It may be time to revisit the restriction on western weapons being used on Russian territory. That would increase the likelihood of the munitions reaching their intended target. At least some of the damage was caused by air defense if these images are current. Russia used their position in the UN security council to condemn the attack although they have been doing much worse for over a year.

MSN

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1742497910510538907

Ukraine claims that military facilities were the target of the strike. It would be foolish for them to expend munitions on civilians when there is a chance of destroying military hardware that could be used against them.

Ukrainian Missile Attack on a Russian City Kills at Least 22, Officials Say

The bombardment of Belgorod on Saturday, apparently in response to an enormous air assault by Moscow a day earlier, appeared to be the deadliest single attack on Russian soil since the start of the war.

www.nytimes.com

And the words and missiles / drones continue to fly back and forth. Nobody can refrute the argument that Russia is the aggressor here, and is ultimately responsible for what happens.

Russia says strikes on Kharkiv were reaction to Ukraine’s attack on Belgorod

Wave of drone and missile strikes that wounded dozens was retaliation for ‘terrorist attack’, says Moscow

www.theguardian.com

 

[Bluey 006]

In a War where small drones are playing a key role in both strike and reconnaissance, and both sides are struggling to keep up with the need for a continuous flow of munitions, weapons, and supplies to replace those destroyed or used up, and the enormous economic cost, One must wonder if the stage is well placed for DEW and their low cost per shot to take centre stage and play a decisive role in counter-drone, C-RAM and Air/Missile Defence.

Neither side has the capabilities to deploy DEW in great numbers. The West is unlikely (probably rightly so) to supply these given they are very much in the developmental phase and the pointy end of weapons development. While Russia has accelerated DEW development it is unlikely they have overcome some of the difficulties DEW face to enable widespread battlefield use, or can they produce enough to make a meaningful contribution to the conflict in the short term.

What should be the takeaway for militaries around the world is that modern warfare uses ammunition at an extremely high rate, logistics are key and ultimately, is it economically and environmentally unsustainable. Any future war will be fought with autonomous systems that need to be countered in a low-cost and non-resource-intensive way, will consume huge amounts of resources, and require new ways to generate and store large amounts of free renewable energy.

An even better takeaway for an intelligent species would be that War shouldn't be fought at all. Disagreements can be solved through other means and despite differences, we all inhabit the same planet, a planet we are killing. Collaboration and cooperation offer our species the best chance of success. Sadly I think we are some way off that.

 

[KipPotapych]

an intelligent species

A paradox of a kind, but good luck with that assessment, haha. Also, as long as there exists competition within the species, no matter how intelligent (within our current understanding and recognition/measurement of intelligence, at least), there will be violence/wars, unfortunately, but naturally.


In other news, the US is suggesting that Russia fired the first couple of missiles (into Ukraine) supplied by North Korea.

Kirby: Russia used North Korean missiles in Ukraine

Kirby also confirmed Tuesday that Russia is seeking Iranian missiles.

www.politico.com

It is suggested that at least one of the missiles covered about 460 km before taking a rest in a field. Here is an alleged trajectory (which is interesting to me on its own, but I don’t have time at the moment to expand):

This is also an interesting perception/interpretation of the situation, in my opinion, (part of the tweet I borrowed the map from):

So at minimum, the Russians have set a new use precedent for externally provided missiles in this war at ranges of -460km. Perhaps new declassified analysis comes out that the launch ranges were well beyond 500 km. If so, I’ll update.

Have they set a precedent for any externally provided missiles? Well, the answer is pretty clear to me and that is not really. The precedent was already set, clearly. The lady suggesting it is a smart lady though. Here is the full thread for those who have access to Twitter:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1743005065227513896

 

[Vivendi]

So at minimum, the Russians have set a new use precedent for externally provided missiles in this war at ranges of -460km. Perhaps new declassified analysis comes out that the launch ranges were well beyond 500 km. If so, I’ll update.

Have they set a precedent for any externally provided missiles? Well, the answer is pretty clear to me and that is not really. The precedent was already set, clearly.

Who sat the precedent and when?

 

[tonnyc]

@KypPotapych The writer is emphasizing to the 460 km range of the missile, not the "externally provided" part. NATO members have been reluctant to provide long range missiles, seeing this as provocative to Russia. But if Russia is using long range missiles provided by other countries, that means Russia did it first. At least I believe that's the precedent the writer was referring to.

 

[KipPotapych]

@KypPotapych The writer is emphasizing to the 460 km range of the missile, not the "externally provided" part. NATO members have been reluctant to provide long range missiles, seeing this as provocative to Russia. But if Russia is using long range missiles provided by other countries, that means Russia did it first. At least I believe that's the precedent the writer was referring to.

Yes, I understand the reasoning, but do not agree with it. The “externally provided” is key that far outweighs the “long range” part, in my opinion. Also, Russia’s capabilities are not altered by this development. I do, however, understand that the proposed interpretation/reasoning is “semi-valid” and will likely lead to further escalation.

They are also looking to acquire the Iranian missiles as well (as per the Politico article cited above).

Regardless, bad news for Ukraine. Especially if the precision of the new acquisitions is questionable, which is likely the case.

 

[Vivendi]

Yes, I understand the reasoning, but do not agree with it. The “externally provided” is key that far outweighs the “long range” part, in my opinion. Also, Russia’s capabilities are not altered by this development. I do, however, understand that the proposed interpretation/reasoning is “semi-valid” and will likely lead to further escalation.

I disagree, the reasoning is not "semi-valid" but valid. I also disagree that it will likely lead to "further escalation". Russia has escalated again, and this might lead to a proportionate response to the escalation but highly unlikely further escalation from the allies. Or do you infer that a potential proportionate response from the allies could lead to a further escalation from Russia and the other axis powers?

 

[Feanor]

It seems to be less of a suggestions and more of a certainty that Russia is using DPRK sourced KN-23 SRBMs in their recent strikes in Kharkov. In principle this is not that surprising.

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[Larry_L]

At least one Kinzhal failed to detonate on impact in Kyev. It also looks like it missed the target.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1743383071808770176

Russia is offering to relocate people from Belgorod. That seems like a fairly extreme measure for a city that size. I suspect there are not enough AD systems to cover the city. Ukraine has had to do this over and over again since they are in the middle of the fighting.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1743283164217266369

There are reports of sabotage on a SU-34 bomber on a base far from Ukraine. They are claiming credit for this, and it would be quite an operation for them to complete since this happened at Chelyabinsk over a thousand miles from Ukraine. Notably, there is no In the video the perpetrator keeps giving the trident finger sign so they probably were there. There seems to be little to no protection for these aircraft at that base.

Su-34 Fullback Torched During Raid Deep In Russia

The Su-34 fighter-bomber was left burning in what appears to have been a sabotage raid a thousand miles from the Ukrainian border.

www.thedrive.com

 

[swerve]

The Ukrainians may see this as a way of making Russia divert resources to protecting assets deep in Russia.

 

[Fredled]

Impacts landing in Belgorod. One of the impacts was on Sobornaya Square, an open area in the middle of town where apparently a New Years festival was taking place. The tree and booths can be seen in one of the videos....

....Note Pantsyrs appear to have been mainly used for air defence in Belgorod from subsequent Ukrainian strike attempts and missile stages from them did fall to the ground. However they clearly don't produce the types of impacts we saw in that video.

This indicates that Ukrainian missiles were intercepted over the city of Belgorod, not before the city. If the Russians had wanted to protect the city, they would have placed the air defence units before the city (I mean between the city and Ukraine). Here, it seems that they protected something behind the city.
It's possible that Ukrainians fire at the sites behind the city and that two of them crashed in the city center after being intercepted.
SAM's don't cause big blast when falling on the ground, but a deviated incoming missile will, if it's not destroyed in the air. This is especially true if missiles are flying at low altitude.

The only indication of significant explosions are two black smoke columns, at some distance from each other. All the rest are broken windows, an ambulance, blast sounds and car alarms.

This doesn't mean that the Ukrainians didn't target a civilian areas on purpose or at least by carelessness. But before accusing them, I think more evidence are needed.

It's very curious that Ukrainians don't say anything about this event. That means that they prefer not to talk about it.

About the number of vehicle sent by the West to Ukraine, I don;t remember such numbers, like 800 M113, 500 MaxxPros and 650 Humvees. I though the numbers were much lower. But you probably know better than me on this topic.
It's true that with the time, numbers add up little by little.

 

[Fredled]

If the RU are so good at intercepting SS, why are ships of the black sea fleet constantly being given early retirement ? Do we have an accurate accounting of SS missile attacks and interceptions ?

Because, as I said, the Kerch Bridge may be better protected than naval bases, and that means very well protected. Also, Ukrainians didn't sink so many ships of medium / big size.

 

[Fredled]

In a War where small drones are playing a key role in both strike and reconnaissance, and both sides are struggling to keep up with the need for a continuous flow of munitions, weapons, and supplies to replace those destroyed or used up, and the enormous economic cost, One must wonder if the stage is well placed for DEW and their low cost per shot to take centre stage and play a decisive role in counter-drone, C-RAM and Air/Missile Defence.

No because these weapons are still largely experimental, very expensive, top secret, and, IMO, not enough efficient. Laser guns able to shot down missiles or planes don't exist. At best you can disable a drone at a short distance after 10 seconds of exposure to the beam. Some lasers are stronger but they are too large and require too much energy to be deployed in Ukraine. There is a discussion about that in the weapon section here.

 

[Larry_L]

Looking at a UAV dropped proximity mine here. The triggering device is very small since it uses SMD's (surface mount devices). These may be a problem after the war although the electronics may degrade with exposure to the weather making them inoperative. On the other hand they may retain function for years. I still have a thumb drive that still works despite going through the washing machine several times. I have gotten better at checking my pockets.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1743139509041041771

An automated 12.7mm heavy machine gun. They are known in the US as the 50 Cal. Heavy enough that it requires a 3 man crew or a vehicle mount. This war has seen more and more automation in many areas. Here it is limited to one box of ammunition, although provision could be made for a few hundred rounds fairly easily. Reloading is still a weak point.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1743340445294264373

I have seen several videos of RPG misfires just like this and other reports of poor quality North Korean ammunition. This is definitely western propaganda, although it may also be true. Russia is likely getting older stocks first.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1743624060737593403

A Russia-Ukrainian report card for January 2024. Some of these numbers are bound to be controversial, and some of them not. The value is a lot of data in one place.

The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, Jan. 2, 2024 | Russia Matters

www.russiamatters.org

 

[Feanor]

This indicates that Ukrainian missiles were intercepted over the city of Belgorod, not before the city. If the Russians had wanted to protect the city, they would have placed the air defence units before the city (I mean between the city and Ukraine). Here, it seems that they protected something behind the city.
It's possible that Ukrainians fire at the sites behind the city and that two of them crashed in the city center after being intercepted.
SAM's don't cause big blast when falling on the ground, but a deviated incoming missile will, if it's not destroyed in the air. This is especially true if missiles are flying at low altitude.

The only indication of significant explosions are two black smoke columns, at some distance from each other. All the rest are broken windows, an ambulance, blast sounds and car alarms.

This doesn't mean that the Ukrainians didn't target a civilian areas on purpose or at least by carelessness. But before accusing them, I think more evidence are needed.

It's very curious that Ukrainians don't say anything about this event. That means that they prefer not to talk about it.

It appears the first strike was missed almost entirely. After that it seems they rushed SHORAD to the location. Intercepting MLRS packets is hard due to volume. Based on the photos of where the strikes landed, the Ukrainian MLRS packet landed scattered all over town. There is no sight of a legitimate military target anywhere. There are also no signs of Russian air defenses operating inside Belgorod. Ukraine has carried out subsequent strikes and Russia has intercepted them with minimal damage to the city. It also appears that Ol'kha MLRS and Czech Vampir Grad variants were used, not exactly the most accurate of weapons. The Ol'kha variant in particular seems to have been a cluster munitions version.

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Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️В Белгороде ракетная опасность, гремят взрывы, враг пытается нанести удары Силы ПВО сбивают вражеские цели t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Враг нанес удар по стоянке у многоэтажки в Белгороде Местные издания публикуют кадры прилета и последствий... t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Рыбарь

Украинские формирования вновь попытались нанести удар по Белгороду. По информации Минобороны России, на подлете к городу сбиты десять воздушных целей, оперативные службы работают на ликвидацией последствий. Зафиксированы несколько падений боеприпасов или обломков сбитых ракет в различных...

t.me

Kotsnews

Те самые Точки-У, которые были направлены на Белгород. Ракеты имели кассетную начинку. Покажите это МИД Франции, который счел действия Киева допустимыми мерами обороны. Париж-то как раз ратифицировал конвенцию о запрете кассетных боеприпасов. UPD На фото, все-таки, не Точка, а головная часть...

t.me

On a side note Russia claims they've taken out the launchers that did the strike but the footage provided is inconclusive.

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About the number of vehicle sent by the West to Ukraine, I don;t remember such numbers, like 800 M113, 500 MaxxPros and 650 Humvees. I though the numbers were much lower. But you probably know better than me on this topic.
It's true that with the time, numbers add up little by little.

These are totals not single packages. My estimate is that Ukraine received 3-4k light armored vehicles, 500+ MBTs, and 300+ SP artillery of all types. Ukraine has received a massive volume of aid not all of which is well documented. But these are estimates not accurate tallies, and I suspect we will never get an accurate tally. Part of the reason western rhetoric on future aid to Ukraine is changing is that there isn't another pile this large that can be provided within a similar time frame. And based on confirmed daily tallies from sources like Ledok Ukraine is averaging 1-2 artillery pieces and 2-4 armored vehicles lost per day. Note these are low end estimates for which confirmed footage is available.

I think this is part of Russia's strategy. Recently Russia deployed a new Shahed/Geranium variant. It's faster, and harder to down with anti-air machine guns. The intent once again is to force Ukraine to exhaust their stockpile of SAMs. We have a consistent pattern of Russia trying to leverage superior resources more then superior capabilities or better planning. The west tried to match those resources with deliveries to Ukraine but the reality is that a GBAD-centric IADS is at an inherent disadvantage.

 

[seaspear]

Perhaps the largest contributor to Ukraine has been the captured Russian equipment ,the "West " concentrated on Soviet era equipment available to minimise training ,also non Soviet initially has often been equipment due to be replaced ,the Bradley vehicle dates back to the early 1980,s

 

[KipPotapych]

These are totals not single packages. My estimate is that Ukraine received 3-4k light armored vehicles, 500+ MBTs, and 300+ SP artillery of all types.

According to this wiki page (yes, not really a source one should normally use), the number of MBT’s donated post 2022 invasion sits at over 700 (no, I didn’t add every single tank mentioned, so according to that page, the number is likely over 750-800).

According to the WP article that talked about the recent offensive I cited a few weeks ago, Zaluzhny requested 1,000 armoured vehicles for the offensive and the US delivered 1,500. In the context of the article, that was just for the latest offensive and by the US alone. There was no indication of what exactly that 1,500 was comprised of.

This Statista page (again, not the source one should normally use) indicates that the disclosed number of artillery, mortar, and MLRS donated to Ukraine sits at well over 600 units (no, I didn’t make the exact count).

The actual number of donated equipment, in my opinion, is significantly higher.