KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Haha. Only saw this post after posting mine, lol. Thankfully, this was part of the answer to the very first question, so about minutes 5 to 14 or something like that.
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
- Start date
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Personally, I believe there is about zero percent chance of Armenia sending any weapons to UA, especially missiles and AD. They also do have lots to lose: Armenia’s imports from Russia are worth nearly $2B and exports $1B, while the GDP of the country is about $14B. So there is quite a bit to lose.
They’d also might need those assets themselves because you never know what the future holds, especially if you start supplying Russia’s “enemy” with missiles and equipment that you bought from Russia (or inherited) and you are that small of a country that most don’t even know exists. Especially, with the current situation they are facing with AZ. It just makes zero sense and I do not find it believable one bit. But that’s just my opinion.
Also, as per a few sources, Armenian MoD said the reports were not true. They are also claiming it is AZ that is responsible for spread of false info. This is TASS - I cannot find anything that could be called reliable.
Yerevan debunks reports of Tochka-U missile system use in Nagorno-Karabakh
Edit: Have been thinking about it now for a few minutes. What would they be gaining by such an act vs the risk they’d be assuming? There is nothing I personally can think of that would make such a move anywhere near to being logical, but outright dumb. So yeah, I do not think there is even a slightest chance this can happen. But we shall see, I guess.
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The only way it would make sense is if a western partner was to trade them/sell (or mix of both) some western comparable equipment potentially even leasing existing gear until new gear is built.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
While this is plausible, I find it very hard pressed to believe that Armenia would be risking severing economic ties with Russia because those would surely follow and the effect on the Armenian economy would be devastating. Frankly, I think they have already been pushing it beyond the comfort level, so to speak. I was slightly off on the numbers I posted above, but not significantly enough to change anything.
Russia (RUS) and Armenia (ARM) Trade | The Observatory of Economic Complexity
Find the latest trade data and tariffs between Russia and Armenia.
This is the second link Google provided me with a search of “armenia russia trade” that pretty much outlines the reality for the country:
Armenian officials offer assurances that all is fine on the economic front, but economists and businesspeople are increasingly worried about possible consequences of the political tensions.
About 40 percent of Armenia's exports go to Russia, and Yerevan's dependence on Russia for basic goods is overwhelming.
Gazprom Armenia, the local subsidiary of the Russian state gas company, owns all of the country's gas distribution infrastructure. Imports from Russia of grain and petroleum products also enjoy a near monopoly.
Armenia's economy is heavily dependent on migrant laborers sending their wages back home from Russia. In 2022 money transfers from Russia accounted for 3.6 billion dollars out of the total 5.1 billion entering the country.
Russia's powerful economic levers over Armenia
As political relations deteriorate, Armenia's economy is more closely linked to Russia than ever.
eurasianet.org
This is just reality for them, just like for most anyone else in the region. Russia is a heavyweight, regardless of what is happening, and all those countries are heavily dependent on it. Note that $3.6B number cited above, which would be out of the $14B economy, then add the exports (which are a drop in the bucket for Russia and they won’t even notice their disappearance there). So yeah, I do not think this is going to happen.
It would also make more sense for the “western partner” to send that better equipment to Ukraine, leased (which Ukraine has been begging for for a while) or otherwise. Armenia doesn’t exactly have dollars to spare either to pay for the lease and give up what they already have. But generosity of the western partners knows little limits in this context, haha.
Just don’t think this is really happening. It would serve no purpose to Armenia. Neither it would to Ukraine, frankly - they had a bunch of Tochka missiles in the beginning of the conflict and now things are quite different from then too.
Side note, this is not the first time I noticed it, but is it now normal to spell Russia uncapitalized? I am typing this on my iPhone and it doesn’t even tell me that “russia” is wrong, while “armenia” surely is, lol.
Soyuz 2.1b | Cosmos 2572
A Soyuz 2.1b rocket launched with Cosmos 2572 from Site 43/4, Plesetsk Cosmodrome, Russia on Saturday Nov 25, 2023 at 20:58 UTC.
nextspaceflight.com
New satellite-Kosmos 2572
20th satellite launch since start of invasion, including one failure-Kosmos2555. From the wikipedia list (not a great source I know),this is the 11th successful military staellite launched. List of Kosmos satellites (2501–2750) - Wikipedia.
I dont know much about this, but I hope some one more knowledgable on this board can give us a rough estimation on how these 11 satellites improve Russian capablity to operate in Ukraine.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #9,026
Assistant to Putin Medinsky has recently made some rather on the nose statements. First he stated that Russian conditions as part of the spring '22 negotiations were recognition of Russian control of Crimea and independence for the LDNR. He added that Russia has never refused to negotiate with Ukraine and stated that Russia doesn't have the goal of conquering Ukraine. In other words, Ukraine exists and can be negotiated with.On the subject of who can be negotiated with, according to vice-Minister of Justice of Ukraine, Ukraine won't sign a peace deal without Russia paying reparations.
Замглавы Минюста Украины: Киев не пойдет на мир с Россией без репараций
Подробнее на сайтеwww.kommersant.ru
And Zelensky says Ukraine won't give up any territories as part of a peace deal. He allegedly ducked the question when asked about Crimea specifically.
Зеленский исключил передачу территорий России ради мира
Президент Украины Владимир Зеленский заявил в интервью CBS News, что Украина не готова отказаться от части своих территорий ради мира. РИА Новости, 18.09.2023ria.ru
In other words, Ukraine's position, if these figures are to be believed, is that Russia needs to leave all currently held areas except possibly Crimea, and pay reparations as part of a peace deal. Given the "success" of Ukraine's counter-offensive, I think it's clear which side doesn't have any intent to realistically negotiate. On a side note reparations are in my opinion one of the easier points, but it would require something in exchange.
vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
If RU simply wanted the LDNR they would of attacked in force there instead of the many multiple avenues of attack they exercised. Putins actions clearly (to me) indicate he wanted the whole enchilada; being able to install a UKR Lukashenko.
RU has yet to set on one single rationale for the invasion - biolabs/protecting Ru speakers in the LDNR/expansion of NATO/etc/etc.
RU has yet to set on one single rationale for the invasion - biolabs/protecting Ru speakers in the LDNR/expansion of NATO/etc/etc.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #9,028
Putin wanted regime change that's clear. However that failed pretty early. What he's talking about is Russia's negotiating position at the talks in spring '22. After the initial attempt failed and Russia was ready to adjust expectations. The question isn't what did Russia want initially. The argument made by swerve was that Russia can't be negotiated with because they don't recognize the existence of Ukraine and intends to conquer it. I don't believe this is Russia's position, and this is support of that.
There have been reports that major general Vladimir Vasilevich of the 14th armored corps died after stepping on a land mine , is there confirmation on this?
More Russian stuff blowing up: Russian major general reported killed by mine (dailykos.com)
More Russian stuff blowing up: Russian major general reported killed by mine (dailykos.com)
I disagree. Russia says at any give time whatever, to strengthen their position at any given time. The long-term target remains the same: to rebuild the Russian empire, and Ukraine is considered a part of the Russian empire. Of course Russia still intends to conquer Ukraine.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Looks like confirmed in RU news.
Российский генерал-майор Владимир Завадский погиб в зоне СВО: что известно?
Генерал-майор Владимир Завадский погиб в зоне проведения специальной военной операции (СВО), подорвавшись на мине в Харьковской области. По некоторым имеющимся данным, российский генерал-майор погиб 28 ноября, подорвавшись на мине под городом Изюм в Харьковской области.
So what do you think Putin's aim is? It appears to be incoherent. Putin, Medvedev et al are still speaking of Ukrainians & Belarussians as being really Russians, artificially & illegitimately separated from the rodina.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #9,033
Well when you start out with one goal and then have to adapt after a dramatic failure, it does tend to get less coherent. I can't confidently state what Russia's negotiating position is. They've not been clear on that at all. I think we can say what it isn't based on the statements made and the policies in place. There isn't an intent to conquer all of Ukraine even if there is a desire. There certainly isn't an ability to conquer all of Ukraine. And it wouldn't go well for Russia if it did manage to conquer all of Ukraine. There is clearly an intent to take more territory. How much of that is a goal in and of itself, versus how much of it is to force Ukraine to finally negotiate rather than face the prospect of continuing to lose territory is unclear. I suspect even Russia's declared annexed territories aren't all that solid. I don't see Russia taking Zaporozhye unless Ukraine literally collapses as a country. It's a city with ~750 000 inhabitants. The largest Russia took with a fight was Mariupol', and the conditions there were near ideal. The city was perfectly surrounded and cut off. Ukraine was reeling from the initial Russian push into the country, Russia and DNR had fresh elite units to throw at the city (9th Rgt and 810th MarBde). Despite all of this, it was a 3 week long bloody slog. It ended in a military victory, predictably so. But how can Russia isolate the fight in a city like Zaporozhye? It sits on the Dnepr, it's larger, Ukraine could focus on the fight there, no competing priorities. And Russia doesn't have those kinds of elite fresh units to throw at it. I suppose it's possible Russian leadership is hoping for the west to completely give up and for Ukraine to just collapse under the strain of this war. But I don't see them making the kinds of preparations on Russia's side it would take for a realistic conquest of Ukraine as a whole or even for the taking of major cities. Nor does it strike me as realistic to expect that. Its just as possible that western support waxes instead of waning as their MIC beefs up production over the next two years. While Ukraine's body count is high and rising, and population is continuing to exit the country, I don't see it collapsing any minute now. It's going to be a long fight.
Again they're referring to, in my read of the statements I've seen, as a shared identity. It's a historic reality and was culturally even enhanced during the Soviet era when people did identify themselves as Soviet. Whether the separation is legitimate is of course quite the question. You could argue the illegitimacy of the dismantlement of the Soviet Union of course (I certainly would) but I think the reality here is that they have neo-imperial, or perhaps just plain imperial (imperialism is the highest stage of capitalism and Russia is a capitalist country) aspirations and are reaching for any ideological framework that will make this possible. Consider Belarus. Despite the Union State and all the joint projects, it isn't annexed or conquered. It's a separate country just with close ties. A satellite state? I'd say yes. Classical imperialism in action? Yes. Does this mean Belorussians don't exist? No, of course not.
The USSR collapsed in 1991, Russia started the first phase of invasion in 2014, 23 years later. The second phase came in 2022, 31 years after the dissolution of the USSR. I think Putin and many others dreamed about rebuilding the Russian empire since 1991. They did not invade Ukraine earlier because they were biding their time. Rebuilding an empire is a long term project. As you rightly point out now they experience a lot of setbacks in their dreams of rebuilding the Russian empire. However I think that they have not yet given up the dream. If they negotiate something, it would be because it would be a way to cut their losses, rebuild, and reattack when they are stronger and they perceive Europe/NATO to be weaker.
It's very clear they simply cannot be trusted. Any agreements with Russia must be combined with a solid and credible deterrence strategy.
ImperatorOrbis
New Member
Well clearly Feanor is one of them. I would genuinely like to hear why you want USSR/Russian empire back. What is so fantastic if you country is bigger on a map?
I used to live in Jugoslavija, but no one wants it back. Maybe some Serbs do...
@ImperatorOrbis You don't know @Feanor and if you want to pick a fight with a Moderator you won't win. Dial back the attitude.
Ngatimozart.
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Several media reporting recently that the main railroad between China and Russia has been sabotaged by Ukrainian SBU, by detonating four devices inside a tunnel.
Has this been confirmed by Russian media yet? A major win for the SBU and Ukraine if confirmed.
Ukrainska Pravda: SBU behind explosion on Russia's strategic railway leading to China - Euromaidan Press
Has this been confirmed by Russian media yet? A major win for the SBU and Ukraine if confirmed.
Ukrainska Pravda: SBU behind explosion on Russia's strategic railway leading to China - Euromaidan Press
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #9,037
I wholeheartedly agree. I think the post-war security arrangement is far more important then the exact territorial line that ends up being drawn.
If you'd like to discuss questions of post-Soviet integration and the advantages of larger countries vs smaller ones vis-a-vis Russia and it's near-abroad we can do that in the Russian General Discussion thread. There are economic, political, and security reasons for all of this to be an advantage. But this is the Ukrainian war thread.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Some of you guys make pretty weird conclusions from the this conversation, in my opinion.
As per Baza telegram channel, there were two separate incidents. Via Google translate:
The cause of the fire in a freight train in the Severomuysky tunnel, according to preliminary data, was a short circuit in the cable network.
A freight train of 50 cars began to enter a tunnel near the Okushikan station in Buryatia when the driver heard a bang. A fire started in one of the carriages. The train driver and his assistant were not injured. As a result of the incident, three tank cars were damaged - one of them burned out completely.
Later, 200 meters of cable line was discovered to have burned out on one section of the route. Fuel began to leak from one of the cars.
At the moment, recovery and firefighting trains are operating in the tunnel - there are no delays in the movement of passenger trains. Law enforcement agencies are working at the scene. The Severomuysky tunnel is the longest in Russia for railways - 15,343 meters.
Baza
Причиной пожара в грузовом поезде в Северомуйском тоннеле, по предварительным данным, стало замыкание кабельной сети. Грузовой состав из 50 вагонов начал въезжать в тоннель неподалеку от станции Окусикан в Бурятии, когда машинист услышал хлопок. В одном из вагонов начался пожар. Машинист...
t.me
And
The explosion of two fuel tanks caused a fire on a freight train in the Severomuysky tunnel in Buryatia.
According to Baza, the freight train was traveling along a bypass track when diesel fuel tanks detonated and six cars caught fire. At the moment, 4 cars are not extinguished.
The causes of the explosion are unknown. According to preliminary data, this time there were also no casualties. A fire train went to the scene to extinguish the fire.
Baza
Взрыв двух цистерн с топливом стал причиной пожара грузового поезда в Северомуйском тоннеле в Бурятии. По данным "Базы", грузовой поезд ехал по объездному пути, когда сдетонировали цистерны с дизтопливом и загорелись шесть вагонов. На данный момент 4 вагона не потушены. Причины взрыва...
t.me
It's unlikely that a short circuit causes the explosion or the fire of a fuel tank wagon. So gazoline could take fire on the surface but that would not cause any immediate explosion if any.
If firefighters are operating in the tunnel, no other train is able to pass. It's a one track way.
If it's confirmed as a SBU sabotage (as Ukrinform confirmed), that would be yet one more embarrassement for Russians.
Putin said at a conference that he didn't want the USSR back. Thought its collapse has been a personal psychological trauma for him.
His goal, however, is to control the areas bordering Russia, the Baltic sea and the Black sea.
In the 2022 invasion, his goal was to topple Zelensky and "put decent people in place"[sic Russian officials]. That's why target #1 of the invasion was Kiev. Target #2 was Odessa and linking Russia to Transnistria where Russian troops are stationed. As these two goals failed, the goals changed. Now they try to defend what they got and, as much as possible counter-attack the Ukrainian forces to prevent them to undertake their counter-offensive. That's one of the reasons why the Ukrainian counter-offensive failed.
It possible that when the retreat of the 50 miles column from Kiev was negotiated. The Russian had to limit the damages and Ukraine were happy to get some reliefs as battles raged on almost on the entire front line. So, maybe the Ukrainian agreed not to shot at retreating Russian vehicles or something like that. But one should remember that at the same moment, there were fierce battle going on elsewhere and it was far from being a ceasefire or a hope for a peace agreement.