Iran reportedly giving Hamas its maximum thoughts and prayers.
As an observer, I can only speculate what was Hamas's leadership's thought process in the run-up to October 7th. However, one thing is clear, and that is that Iran's defense strategy is one that creates and maintains proxies with the intent to fight for it and keep Iran out of wars, not the other way around.
Iran is a powerful nation but is in a fragile and delicate state. It strives to obtain a nuclear capability to ultimately shield itself from without, and works on subjugating its population to shield itself from within. Perhaps achieve a similar status to North Korea whose leadership is considered untouchable. It does not have a clear interest in entering a war with Israel and the US when it knows it has much more to lose than them, and not much to gain in the first place. Would it gain popularity for it? That is supposed to be a non-issue in the first place, and it will certainly harm its legitimacy at home.
One factor for Iran to consider is that its nuclear program is vulnerable but the US and Israel need a casus belli and operational freedom. Joining the war on Hamas's side means giving them that casus belli, especially if Iran triggers Hezbollah for it. Which brings us to the next point.
Hezbollah is not Iran's way of destroying Israel. Rather, it is its deterrent against a strike on its nuclear program. At least that is its purpose for now.
The US and Israel have an interest in keeping Hezbollah out of it to better focus on Gaza. The best units are in Gaza and the war is already costly, material-wise. However if Hezbollah gives Israel no choice and enters a war, then Israel will no longer be deterred, and chances of it committing to a strike in Iran become significantly higher.
This does leave the Houthis in a peculiar situation - why would Iran use them in the first place? That I do not know, but I speculate that Iran sees an Israel-Houthi conflict as something that all sides agree to contain. It forces Israel to spread its defenses and air force to protect its southern flank and away from Iran's own strike assets, and the frozen state of the Houthi-Saudi conflict means their munitions need to be spent somehow.
Supreme leader informed Haniyeh decision due to failure to notify Tehran before Oct. 7 onslaught, instructed him to 'silence' those urging Iranian involvement, according to Reuters
www.timesofisrael.com
One peculiar phenomenon in the Israel-Hamas war is Turkey's posture. A hardline approach was expected, but not of this magnitude. Erdogan's policies have also incited against the US, apparent in the allegedly organized storming of Incirlik airbase during Blinken's visit.
Some here may be aware of a 2010 incident between Turkey and Israel. A multinational flotilla set off in an attempt to "breach the Gaza blockade". The IDF ordered the ships to dock in the Ashdod port, from which any aid they wish to transfer can be loaded onto trucks and transferred via a land crossing, after inspection. Most ships agreed and indeed diverted. One ship, named Mavi Marmara, however, declined. The IDF prepared to take over the ship and manually divert it to Ashdod. As troops rapelled down onto the ship, at first for some reason unarmed, they were pulled, separated, beaten, and some even thrown over board. A second force came in with arms, killed a few assailants, and established control over the ship. Substantial quantities of cold arms were found, and parts of the ship were apparently salvaged before the incident for improvized weapons.
For those interested in the incident, here is a video explaining the timeline:
If you choose to not believe Israel's narrative, the video also contains footage from the incident.
Turkey responded to the incident by severing ties with Israel. This somewhat puzzled me, but Netanyahu chose to apologize for the incident in 2013. Since then, relations have been on and off.
It is now reported that another flotilla is planned, for the same purpose. I think I know how the IDF will react to this one as well, but this time it seems relations with Turkey cannot be any worse, at least on the surface level.
Members from the Mavi Marmara organization attacked IDF soldiers who boarded their ship during the 2010 Gaza Freedom Flotilla, leaving ten passengers killed and dozens wounded.
www.jpost.com
On the topic of Erdogan, what is presumed to be a Mossad bee attempted attack was foiled by Turkish security services.
