Middle East Defence & Security

[Big_Zucchini]

Israel is being torn from within. The sitting coalition vowed to cancel democracy, while the opposition organizes demonstrations against the move.
The people are unprecedentedly divided, money is being pulled from Israel, economical, defense, and other establishments are striking, and a sense of inevitable, violent outburst, even a mini civil war, is felt all across.

Demolition of Israeli democracy starts next week; Netanyahu must heed Herzog’s plea

MKs are about to okay the 1st reading of parts of the judicial overhaul package; it's really one man's power grab, and only that man can pull Israel back from the autocratic brink

www.timesofisrael.com

In the context of defense alone, this means the IDF will receive less high quality manpower, less money, and may find itself even in political conflicts with the government.
A weakened Israel will embolden regional adversaries to expand their activities, however I assume no open conflicts will occur soon. Rather, they'll carefully watch the events developing in Israel.

 

[John Fedup]

Israel is being torn from within. The sitting coalition vowed to cancel democracy, while the opposition organizes demonstrations against the move.
The people are unprecedentedly divided, money is being pulled from Israel, economical, defense, and other establishments are striking, and a sense of inevitable, violent outburst, even a mini civil war, is felt all across.

Demolition of Israeli democracy starts next week; Netanyahu must heed Herzog’s plea

MKs are about to okay the 1st reading of parts of the judicial overhaul package; it's really one man's power grab, and only that man can pull Israel back from the autocratic brink

www.timesofisrael.com

In the context of defense alone, this means the IDF will receive less high quality manpower, less money, and may find itself even in political conflicts with the government.
A weakened Israel will embolden regional adversaries to expand their activities, however I assume no open conflicts will occur soon. Rather, they'll carefully watch the events developing in Israel.

Sounds like the same crap we see here south of the border except money isn’t running away….yet. If it does, it definitely won’t be running to Canada!

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Sounds like the same crap we see here south of the border except money isn’t running away….yet. If it does, it definitely won’t be running to Canada!

Best comparison would be Hungary or Poland.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Iran reportedly at 84% uranium enrichment. Weapons grade is 90%, and it is a short technical step away.
This indicates Iran is not gunning for a nuke per se, but rather just trying to push the red lines further and further each time, and so far succeeds. Israeli and US statements are not unlike in the past.

Barring a complete removal of enriched uranium from Iran's territory (we've seen how "successful" the Syrian chemical weapons removal program was), this step is irreversible.

According to Tyler Rogoway, this is a late stage in the run up to a strike, and by extension, a larger regional military confrontation.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1627392666903384064

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Opposition to the government's legislative push, primarily its judicial overhaul plan and personal laws to bring immunize convicted figures, is growing.
Some reading material on that:

Gantz to PM: Talk now before we face civil war; Herzog: Israel may fall into abyss

National Unity leader calls on Netanyahu to enter into negotiations on overhaul immediately; the premier ostensibly agrees, but sides continue to be divided on terms

www.timesofisrael.com

Israel's defense apparatus is already taking a hit, and will suffer the current political turmoil's consequences both in the short and long term.
In the long term, many combat soldiers, particularly pilots, are speaking about second thoughts about military careers due to potential of prosecution by the ICC. Having a working supreme court and a robust system of self investigation and prosecution that was independent of the army's internal politics, as well as acceptance of international treaties, allowed Israel to prosecute wrongdoers, and safeguard others. However, in the advent of a defanged supreme court, IDF veterans will no longer be legally protected, and may be prosecuted abroad.
The issue in itself is not a conviction of said people, but rather the fact that it would deter regular Israelis from flying abroad, effectively trapping them in Israel, and of course if someone chooses to travel and is brought to trial, he may be forced to provide classified information.

This is a particularly sensitive topic now that the ICC is tasked with a permanent probe into Israel, which most western governments strongly oppose under questions of legal validity. When the ICC's legal actions are controversial themselves, entrusting them with the safety of Israelis is considered... problematic.

And in the short term, reservists are protesting by avoiding reserve duties. It's no secret that Israel's defense is largely reliant on its reservists, and the reservists' contribution is felt across every branch, every unit, every mission.
No reservists means many active units will be understaffed (as they have reserve components), they will receive no rear support and relief to focus on actual maneuver, special units will lose many of their most valuable instructors and fighters, and the air force will be massively understaffed.
Yes, even for a strike on Iran, or a large sweep across Lebanon, the IAF would have to call up reserve pilots working for airlines, to drop their work for a while and do combat missions.
One of the biggest hits is from the reservists who served in the military intelligence combat unit, which together with the air force, was responsible for much of the daily covert actions across the region.
Of course, this does not mean reservists won't answer the call when war starts. There will be reservists there, but they will be less trained, less capable, and the army could rely on them to a much lower degree. But in the meantime, the IDF's ability to conduct day to day operations will be compromised, including some strategic contingency plans.

Elite engineering, cyber warfare reservists join opposition to judicial overhaul

'Division and hatred will grow': Groups send letters to security brass warning they may stop showing up for reserve duty if government goes through with plans to weaken courts

www.timesofisrael.com

 

[T.C.P]

Saudi's been quite busy

Saudi-Iran

Iran, Saudi Arabia announce normalization of diplomatic relations, Yemen undecided - UPI.com

Iran and Saudi Arabia have agreed to resume relations between the two countries in a deal brokered by China on Friday.

www.upi.com

Saudi-Israel

Saudi Arabia Offers Its Price to Normalize Relations With Israel (Published 2023)

The Saudi crown prince is seeking a civilian nuclear program and security assurances from President Biden, a steep price for an agreement long sought by Israel.

www.nytimes.com

A saudi-Israel nornalization would be a massive coup for the USA. MBS is not the biggest fan of Biden, and MBS is young himself, he could just wait out the Biden presidency and offer this up to the next less hostile US President.

If Saudi and Iran do normalize relations, it will put a lot more pressure on Israel, the window to strike Iran is shrinking.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

It is interesting indeed that both moves came at the same time, and even more interesting that this is the first time Saudi Arabia actually demands realistic concessions from Israel (although the demands from the US for civilian nuclear tech are unrealistic).
Although not a zero sum game, it's fairly close to being one. Saudi Arabia can only simultaneously improve relations with Israel and Iran so much. I assume it may seek normalization with Israel for economical benefit, but would limit security cooperation with Israel.

Saudi Arabia's normalization with Iran can be seen as a huge miscalculation that followed many wrong decisions in the past leading up to it, but in the short term, it does come from actual problems. Saudi Arabia's mutual mistrust with the US, its military incompetence, and Iran's large strategic munitions arsenal and production capability, means Saudi Arabia does not have a military option at the moment to defend itself and its economical assets, nor can it deter Iran in any way.

Israel was the Persian gulf region's backup plan. In the absence of American support, Israel could sell advanced air defenses, provide training and expertise, and intelligence, allowing them to defend themselves against Iran, and even deter Iran from future actions. But 2023 Israel is merely a shadow of 2022 Israel which sold UAE Barak MX batteries and tried setting up a mini MENA NATO.
Internal turmoil in Israel, driving away allies and foreign investors alike, and the current government's singular focus on a judicial overhaul that is widely assumed to be an attempt to bail the PM from multiple corruption trials, plus a wide purge of professionals in favor of loyalists - from government offices, means that from the highest to lowest levels, Israel is not handling foreign policy and cannot be depended upon to objectively cooperate with Saudi Arabia on its strategic needs.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Israel's downward spiral continues. All negative trends continue, including and especially in matters of security.

• Over 200 reservist pilots have refused to show up for weekly training flights. They are considered essential for a confrontation with Iran and Hezbollah.
• Hundreds more medics, unknown numbers of reservists from combat and elite units, military intelligence, and many more in critical positions, are also refusing to show up for reserve duties.
• Protests country-wide are not slowing down, and are taking more forms, are more spontaneous, and increase in size over time. The 500,000 mark has already been crossed (Israel's population - 9.3 million).
• Enemies are more brazen - a unique Hezbollah attack deep inside Israel, more Palestinian terror attacks, Hamas launches more rockets which are almost unanswered.

Despite the massive protests, reservists will show up for an actual war - on that there is a consensus. If Israel is attacked, it will, again, crush whatever enemy there is, albeit only temporarily as usual. But it does not cancel the fact that Israel's enemies are sensing the weakness and are already testing the waters.

This time I'm not providing reading material. This is a series of rolling events on which I haven't found a good compilation/summary yet, but I am ready to answer any specific questions, with citation of course.

 

[ngatimozart]

Netanyahu has fired the Israeli defence minister because he's opposed Netanyahu's justice reforms.

Israel defence minister fired in legal reform row

Yoav Gallant is sacked by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after opposing the controversial shake-up.

www.bbc.com

Since then the public have strongly protested about it.

Mass Israel protests after Netanyahu fires defence minister

Thousands demonstrate after the firing of Yoav Gallant - who spoke out over controversial judicial reforms.

www.bbc.com

And he's finally delayed the reforms. But for how long is anyone's guess. This could lead to a rupture in the governing coalition if he doesn't keep his promise to the far right Jewish Power after they agreed to stay their veto.

Itamar Ben-Gvir, Jewish Power's leader, also said he accepted the delay because, in exchange, Mr Netanyahu had agreed to put his national security ministry in charge of a new "national guard".​

Israel protests: PM Netanyahu delays legal reforms after day of strikes

His proposed changes provoked an outpouring of anger from nearly all parts of Israeli society.

www.bbc.com

 

[Big_Zucchini]

And he's finally delayed the reforms. But for how long is anyone's guess. This could lead to a rupture in the governing coalition if he doesn't keep his promise to the far right Jewish Power after they agreed to stay their veto.

Itamar Ben-Gvir, Jewish Power's leader, also said he accepted the delay because, in exchange, Mr Netanyahu had agreed to put his national security ministry in charge of a new "national guard".

Former Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant, as well as a few others from the Likud party, are the true internal opposition. Other elements from the fringe parties are strongly supportive of the legal overhaul, but only because this appearance allows the Likud to keep them as useful pawns, and in exchange they (far right parties) get to govern.
Their function, essentially, is to bark, and allow the Likud to "restrain" them and create this outward appearance that they are moderate, calculated, and are "the adults in the room".

His private militia is Ben Gvir's goal. Appearing to support the legal overhaul in a "hold me" fashion is just the means.

Unfortunately, the coalition has already shielded itself, partially, from defections. I don't quite remember the specifics, but it requires a fairly large number of MKs (Members of Knesset) to simultaneously defect, to avoid incurring sanctions.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Probably an April 1st joke, but it does have a serious, depressing undertone.

https://www.kan.org.il/item/?itemId=149129

Israel's public broadcasting corporation, Kan, reportedly conducted a poll that asked voters for both camps (coalition, opposition), if Israel was split again into 2 states - Israel and Judea, where would they choose to live?

• Israel - secular, progressive, modern.
• Judea - religious, conservative.
• Coalition voters - 55% Judea, 16% Israel.
• Opposition voters - 3% Judea, 88% Israel.

However, of all respondents, 62% were against having a split in the first place.

I think the poll was made for April Fools, but the results are real. Still, I decided to post this, because this is actually something I proposed a while ago as a solution to the current situation. The demographic issue was ignored for too long, and now it's just not sustainable.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

How To Destroy Deterrence

Over the last 36 hours, Hamas and Hezbollah have fired dozens of rockets into Israel. The Israeli response is regarded by the public as weak and detached from reality. Here's a quick rundown of the events.

• April 5th, Passover Seder, late hours - Hamas fires a small barrage from Gaza into Israel.
• IDF commits to an empty response, striking empty guard posts made of tin. The public regards this as no response.
• April 6th, throughout the day, Hamas fires 34 rockets from Lebanon into Israel, in largest attack since 2006. Hezbollah is widely assumed to have given at least a tacit approval due to the extent of its control on southern Lebanon.
• IDF does not retaliate immediately, pending security cabinet orders.
• IDF announces Hamas is responsible, not Hezbollah, in a move regarded as weak and a mere excuse.
• Security cabinet only slated to convene late in the evening, at 20:30. Some concerns were that certain cabinet members demanded a late meeting due to the holiday - publicly regarded as weak, as security issues take precedent.
• Absence of PR bodies is felt - PR ministry, Defense ministry, and the MFA, are all silent during the events.
• Opposition figures provided speeches of unity during security crises, in the absence of coalition government members.
• Cabinet does not convene until 22:10, by which time viewership should drop dramatically.
• Cabinet releases statement that Hamas is responsible and some retaliation will come.
• Retaliation in the form of strikes in Gaza and Lebanon occurs in the late night hours between the 6th and 7th of April. In Lebanon, the strikes were exclusively against Hamas targets. The strikes were reportedly against valuable targets, but the reports drowned amid new reports...
• Hamas fires a further 44 projectiles into Israel overnight. A new wave of attacks retaliates against those.

Israel hits Hamas targets in Lebanon, Gaza in response to rocket attacks

IDF strikes 'terror infrastructure' in southern Lebanon, tunnels, weapons sites in Palestinian enclave; 44 projectiles fired from Strip overnight, hitting a home in Sderot

www.timesofisrael.com

So how does the public perceive this, on both sides?
From the Palestinian and Lebanese perspectives, they managed to fire into Israel in a regular show of "rage" AND set a precedent by firing from Lebanon, with negligible consequences.

From the Israeli perspective, rockets into Israeli populated areas are now much less consequential for those firing them, thus "normalizing" the situation. Trust in the security establishment and government dropped. The public also witnessed the absurd situation in which the "responsible adults" were the opposition members, while coalition members were entirely absent, and considered to be dragging their feet.
Due to the coalition's legislative overhaul push, many other government duties were neglected, including an organized policy regarding such security threats, and it was strongly felt the last few days.

All this comes amid one of the worst years in over a decade when it comes to terror activity and threats. Many previous attacks, like the Hezbollah Megido bombing, also unprecedented, and the drone incursions from Gaza and Syria, also went unanswered to this day.


All in all, this is a magnificent PR failure on the IDF's and government's part.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Jordanian MP arrested in Israel on suspicion of smuggling weapons.

Jordanian MP arrested by Israel on suspicion of smuggling weapons - report

The Jordanian Foreign Ministry announced Sunday that it was following up on the arrest.

www.jpost.com

I really don't know what this guy was thinking. Ambassadors spying on host countries is known, but an MP smuggling weapons? That's a nice way of stripping Jordan's politicians of diplomatic immunity for a while.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Jordanian MP arrested in Israel on suspicion of smuggling weapons.

Jordanian MP arrested by Israel on suspicion of smuggling weapons - report

The Jordanian Foreign Ministry announced Sunday that it was following up on the arrest.

www.jpost.com

I really don't know what this guy was thinking. Ambassadors spying on host countries is known, but an MP smuggling weapons? That's a nice way of stripping Jordan's politicians of diplomatic immunity for a while.

He's now back in Jordan, stripped of his immunity by the Jordanian parliament, and will likely be thoroughly interrogated for ties to terrorist groups.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1655122450496081923

EDIT: Apparently, according to the same source, he is a repeated offender of arms and cash smuggling, and was caught after already making several successful transfers.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

The EU, despite every reason not to, keeps butting heads with Israel over the Palestinians.

This is the title of the article.
"EU angered as Israel razes Palestinian school built with European funds"
"COGAT said in a statement that the building had been constructed illegally and 'was found to be dangerous to the safety of anyone studying or otherwise visiting there.'"

And here's the full article:

EU angered as Israel razes Palestinian school built with European funds

COGAT said in a statement that the building had been constructed illegally and 'was found to be dangerous to the safety of anyone studying or otherwise visiting there.'

www.jpost.com

This situation, sort of a tit for tat between the EU and Israel, has been going on for many years.

1. EU funds and oversees construction project in area C (more on that later).
2. Army, COGAT (military-civilian coordination agency), or private entities discover and report construction.
3. Court issues demolition order.
4. Israel demolishes marked structure.
5. EU angry at Israel for demolishing structures.

Area C - under full Israeli civil and military administration according to the Oslo Accords.

The situation itself is quite absurd to the average observer. It gets even more absurd when one discovers that the demolitions are actually predetermined actions by the EU itself, despite its funding of those projects. And yet more absurd when considering that despite the need to appease some voting muslim citizens, the EU needs to work on improving cooperation with Israel regarding energy (Israel exports energy to Europe) and defense (prioritizing defense exports to Europe allows EU to donate more to Ukraine via backfilling).
This could be a jab at Netanyahu, signaling him that the Europeans support the protest movement in Israel and disapprove of his divisive policies. But is it the smart thing to do right now?

By the way, why did I say this loop is predetermined? Because the EU does not actually file for construction permits, and without them a local court has no choice but to order a demolition. And the schools themselves? Usually just a single or few classrooms in tin shacks, disconnected from water, plumbing, and electricity.

 

[Ananda]

Foreign Intel: Iran Close To Testing First Nuke | OilPrice.com

Recent intelligence reports from Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden suggest that Iran is close to testing its first nuclear weapon, potentially impacting its economic situation and global oil markets

oilprice.com

I don't know why this being bring out by some European. It is warning for US to close the deal soon, or risk Iran achieving nuclear weapon capabilities? For one thing Oilprice.com more concern with on when the deal to release Iran Oil to much of export market (especially Western ones) will be.

Seems Iran also potentially leak this intentionally to get better deal. Shown that better make a deal with us now, or too late already.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Iran accuses Israel of plot to sabotage its missile programs.

Iran accuses Israel of plot to sabotage missiles - state media

"This sabotage was carried out under the guidance of the Zionist intelligence services and their agents," Iranian state TV said.

www.jpost.com

Although intelligence services are often thought to mainly collect intelligence, their actual work is much broader, and I dare say most of their resources - manpower and material, are spent elsewhere. During my service, the definition of Israel's intelligence services' role was simply described: "Provide an edge from the first day of war".
Although I cannot comment on what's said in the article - OPSEC and all, I can say that the occasional act of bamboozle is what keeps intelligence services so busy. The same infrastructure, be it technological, human connections, informational etc, is used constantly to sabotage enemies' force buildup.
This is why we may hear news about a new western aircraft or AFV that goes quickly through prototype, feedback, and testing phases, but risk mitigation activities take so long. Others may call it "cyber-security concerns".
John Hawkes from Janes wrote a long piece about AFV cyber resilience. I haven't finished it yet but his blog is worth a read.

Cyber Resilience in Armoured Vehicles

What does Cyber really mean for AFVs? We all hear about grey zone boogeymen, meddling elections and attacking IT systems, but is there anything actually at risk in the 'Cyber' domain in the cold hard steel of an AFV? Yes, potentially quite a lot as it turns out. Cyber is a bit of an amorphous...

www.tanknology.co.uk

Since production of basically every piece of military kit is rarely purely domestic, following the entire production process is very difficult. Everything, down to the last chip, needs to be verified.
There is a sort of an arms race between capability to hide sabotage from conventional testing methods, and ways to uncover it.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

I can recall the journalist Robert Fisk, going on TV twenty years ago and saying that a 2 state solution will not work on the ground. The reason there are too many Israeli settlers in the West Bank, and any Palestinian state in the West Bank would be a collection of small fragmented areas. Since then it has only got much worse, I think the number of Israeli settlers in the West Bank is over 450,000 and growing. They are not going to leave.

This is an over-simplification that does more harm than good. There is an important nuance here which is that the word "settlers" cannot describe any single group. Over 300,000 of these people are residents of Jerusalem - a well established city and not a settlement in any way, as well as residents of other established cities like Ariel, Ma'ale Adumim and so on. In past negotiations Israel offered to keep those cities but compensate with Israeli-proper territory.
Then there are people who live in small but recognized communities, that the state considers relocatable. That is, in past negotiations as well as potential future ones, they can be evacuated just like Israel relocated Gaza's Jewish population in 2005.
And finally, there are the people who live in unrecognized, often illegal communities with poor living conditions, that are highly hostile to the Israeli state and are frequently removed from anywhere they occupy.

It would be wrong to consider them an obstacle to a land swap when we have prior proposals to draw from - that solve the settlement issue, as well as events in which Israel relocated its own citizens for the sake of Palestinian statehood. They are no more an obstacle than the Jewish communities were to Gazan statehood in 2005.

 

[Ananda]

Settler Violence Against Palestinians in the West Bank Is Rising (Published 2023)

More than 100 Palestinians have been killed, more than 2,000 injured and nearly 1,000 forcibly displaced by Israeli forces and settlers since Hamas’s Oct. 7 attacks on Israel, the United Nations said.

www.nytimes.com

I read this few days ago on Arab Media. Now seems NYT follow this, and confirm it. This is done by mostly Right Wing Settlers, with Guns given by Right Wing Minister. Thus increase Arab's streets opinions that Israel only want to use Hamas excuse to not only displace Gazan Palestinian, but also West Bank Palestinian.

Ironically most victims are Bedouins, which basically can be said most benign Arabs in Palestine and Israel. This is also where most Arab recruit in Israel Army coming from.

So yes, with this kind of settlers that Isreal lately promoting to increase settlement holdings in West Bank, how they expect Palestinian will not going to circle back and use this for their own cause within Arab World and even International audiences.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

NYT is not really a credible source due to their lacking methodology. They quote the UN, but the UN has many politically-biased agencies, many of which are now completely untrustworthy.
The UN often quotes Palestinian sources with a long track record of disinformation.
So in the end, this is highly likely another case of "Health Ministry in Gaza reported 500 deaths".

While it is very comfortable to just believe settlers went on a rampage of their own, reality tends to be a lot calmer than that. Their use of firearms is highly regulated, Palestinian violence massively spiked during the war, and the numbers seem completely made up.