The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[T.C.P]

Well to be honest I am not sure that the political affiliation of the soldier being buried justifies dropping a ballistic missile on his funeral.

Such a strike will certainly kill his relatives, regardless of who else attends.

he did not say that it would be justified, but that it would be in line with Russian Intelligence targetting. For some reason they seeem to be ok with expending expesnive muntion in trying to take out Ukraineian "Nazis" that Russian "Nazis" cannot bear to stand for some reason.

When this war is over, I would love to read a good book that looks into the convulated relationship between various European "Nazi/Nazi inspired" groups.

 

[Feanor]

he did not say that it would be justified, but that it would be in line with Russian Intelligence targetting.

This is exactly my point. To clarify, it seems the Russian government separates those fighting against Russia on ideological grounds vs those simply doing it because they got drafted and thus they classify foreign fighters and right-wing extremists as enemies in principle while the rest are just an unfortunate issue. This is not entirely arbitrary distinction but it was far more relevant during the '14-'15 campaigns then it is now.

Well to be honest I am not sure that the political affiliation of the soldier being buried justifies dropping a ballistic missile on his funeral.

Such a strike will certainly kill his relatives, regardless of who else attends.

They would presumably consider it collateral damage. Again just my assumption. Targeting funerals deliberately is problematic in my book in almost any circumstances. But I can see how Russian leadership made the decision. It lines up with previous strikes. Like the multiple times they hit cafes where foreign fighters were meeting in large quantity. The cafe staff were collateral damage.

 

[T.C.P]

This seems to be likely fitting a tighter schedule, I would think, if the claims in the post are accurate. Translation of the post via Google translate:

Strike by a 300-mm MLRS "Tornado-S" guided missile on a cluster of dry land at a training ground in the village of Kucherov Yar.

About 60 military personnel (including foreign instructors) were captured 50 km from the front line.

Edit: Google says “captured”, but of course it says killed (“covered” is the literal translation of the word they used in the post).

Colonelcassad

Удар корректируемой ракетой 300-мм РСЗО "Торнадо-С" по скоплению всушников на полигоне в н.п Кучеров Яр. Около 60 всушников (в том числе иностранных инструкторов) были накрыты в 50-км от линии фронта. @yuzhny_front_ZOV

t.me

Edit 2: Rybar says that it was an Iskander strike; which makes a lot more sense:

Рыбарь

❗️ Удар по скоплению украинских десантников в Кучеров Яре Коллеги с канала Южный фронт опубликовали кадры ракетного удара «Искандером» по импровизированному полигону 77 аэромобильной бригады ДШВ Украины в окрестностях Кучеров Яра на Соледарском направлении. Координаты: 48.5041189, 37.2462911...

t.me

In other news, Germany is planning to provide another Patriot system to Ukraine in the winter:

Germany to provide Ukraine with an additional Patriot air defence system

Germany is working on the supply of an additional Patriot air defence missile system to Ukraine in the winter months, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

Is it confirmed that its a Iskander, the explosion seemed too small to be a Iskander and the airbusrt seems to indicate a Tornado S rocket.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/171r56n
here is another alleged Tornado S strike 70km from front line.

This one and the other train deep strikes all have one thing in common, a spotter drone penetrating way deep into Ukraine. Ithink these are all Orlans, so it seems Russia has seriously boosted Orlan production.

recently there has been an increase of 'doomposting' from the pro Ukr crowd, the realities of the counteroffensive are starting to settle in.

Here are three threads from the Ukr military OSINT of some quality tatragami-

Thread by @Tatarigami_UA on Thread Reader App

@Tatarigami_UA: Russians are actively expanding their training ground facilities in the rear areas of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts and within Russia. This expansion aims to tackle logistical bottlenecks that arose af...…

threadreaderapp.com

This one shows increased Russian training facilities. Through out last year and this years mobilizations training facilities have been a major bottleneck for the Russian, seems like they are taking steps to fix it.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1710382234803290154

In this thread the guy mentions the problems the Ukrainians are facing due to Russian mobiks plugging holes and the over all geenral issues with the counter offensive so far.

Thread by @Tatarigami_UA on Thread Reader App

@Tatarigami_UA: Leading up to and during the counter-offensive, many independent observers underestimated the preparedness of russian defenses. Seemingly unremarkable tree lines concealed well-prepared russian posit...…

threadreaderapp.com

In this thread he shows how Russian fortifications are more impressive than previously though and blames the foreign observers for failing to catch it. But I think he should be blaming his side for the failure more. Its the UKR recon groups who failed to catch all of this, why blame foreign observers?
A

 

[Feanor]

Is it confirmed that its a Iskander, the explosion seemed too small to be a Iskander and the airbusrt seems to indicate a Tornado S rocket.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/171r56n
here is another alleged Tornado S strike 70km from front line.

This one and the other train deep strikes all have one thing in common, a spotter drone penetrating way deep into Ukraine. Ithink these are all Orlans, so it seems Russia has seriously boosted Orlan production.

recently there has been an increase of 'doomposting' from the pro Ukr crowd, the realities of the counteroffensive are starting to settle in.

Here are three threads from the Ukr military OSINT of some quality tatragami-

Thread by @Tatarigami_UA on Thread Reader App

@Tatarigami_UA: Russians are actively expanding their training ground facilities in the rear areas of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts and within Russia. This expansion aims to tackle logistical bottlenecks that arose af...…

threadreaderapp.com

This one shows increased Russian training facilities. Through out last year and this years mobilizations training facilities have been a major bottleneck for the Russian, seems like they are taking steps to fix it.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1710382234803290154

In this thread the guy mentions the problems the Ukrainians are facing due to Russian mobiks plugging holes and the over all geenral issues with the counter offensive so far.

Thread by @Tatarigami_UA on Thread Reader App

@Tatarigami_UA: Leading up to and during the counter-offensive, many independent observers underestimated the preparedness of russian defenses. Seemingly unremarkable tree lines concealed well-prepared russian posit...…

threadreaderapp.com

In this thread he shows how Russian fortifications are more impressive than previously though and blames the foreign observers for failing to catch it. But I think he should be blaming his side for the failure more. Its the UKR recon groups who failed to catch all of this, why blame foreign observers?
A

This is not surprising. Ukraine's offensive appears to be dead in the water. There are additional units being formed and we will likely see more efforts but they will be costly and they are unlikely to bring success. In the meantime there are reports of Russian forces resuming local offensives in the Vremyevskiy bulge and towards Kupyansk (the latter makes a lot of sense given the recent bridge strikes). Despite the supply of western SAMs Russia retains (and has probably expanded) their ability to strike Ukraine from the sky, and isn't losing on the ground. In other words, without something changing, Ukraine's future is grim for the next few months. With another major push, a new wave of Ukrainian units on the scale of the last one could be prepared, but it's not clear that this would necessarily change anything. Overall Ukraine likely needs to make peace. Recovering some mostly empty steppes in Zaporozhye or the ruins of a few more towns in the Donbass isn't worth the human or economic cost of continuing the fight. However it's unclear that the West or Russia are prepared to call quites. Russia would probably sign peace under some sort of terms, but what those would look like at this point is very unclear. And Zelensky isn't likely to tell the west to stick it where the shine don't shine while he makes an ugly compromise with Russia. So for a Ukrainian the future is a continuing war but with no hope of true victory, no end in sight, and Russia gaining in strength due to both technological adaptations and Ukraine's resources running out slowly but surely.

 

[Redshift]

he did not say that it would be justified, but that it would be in line with Russian Intelligence targetting. For some reason they seeem to be ok with expending expesnive muntion in trying to take out Ukraineian "Nazis" that Russian "Nazis" cannot bear to stand for some reason.

When this war is over, I would love to read a good book that looks into the convulated relationship between various European "Nazi/Nazi inspired" groups.

No Feanor did not, but it would seem that Russia thinks that way.

 

[Ananda]

For some reason they seeem to be ok with expending expesnive muntion in trying to take out Ukraineian "Nazis" that Russian "Nazis" cannot bear to stand for some reason

To be fair, targeting funeral by dropping a missile there is not without precedent outside Russia. US done it several times allready against 'militants' funerals. Funeral is time when 'colleagues' come out to the open. So question is whose Russian targeting toward this funeral attendance.

This will reflect if this is good or bad intell.

 

[Redshift]

To be fair, targeting funeral by dropping a missile there is not without precedent outside Russia. US done it several times allready against 'militants' funerals. Funeral is time when 'colleagues' come out to the open. So question is whose Russian targeting toward this funeral attendance.

This will reflect if this is good or bad intell.

Just because the USA did it does not make it right or make it a precedent.

The USA used nuclear bombs to end the war with Japan, that was not right (in my opinion, as a younger man I thought that it was right) and I certainly hope that it isn't used as a justification to repeat that act by anyone ever again.

Whoever they were targeting this strike was guaranteed to kill civilians, mothers, father's, children , aunties , uncles.

Also from a military point of view it is ineffective, how many enemy combatants are you going to put out of action in this way?

This kind of action also , usually, strengthens the resolve of those being targeted, it is seen as an indication that it is better to keep fighting rather than die anyway from an attack like this on your own territory.

 

[Ananda]

because the USA did it does not make it right or make it a precedent.

Well off course it is not right, however it is like it or not is precedent for others to use.

Also from a military point of view it is ineffective, how many enemy combatants are you going to put out of action in this way

Targeting funeral never been kiling many combatants, it is part of targeted assassination. US done this also to target certain individuals that's highly targeted.

You don't send expensive assets just to destroy bunch of vilagers. If this is targeted attack toward certain individuals that come to that funeral (as Russian telegrams speculations), then again it is base on Intell data.

So either this is misshap, or targeted attack. Depends on whose individuals they are targeted, or simply intell misshap.

 

[Redshift]

Well off course it is not right, however it is like it or not is precedent for others to use.

So if the USA has done something horrendous then that is a precedent and anyone else can justify doing the same?

Does this rule apply to other countries or is it just the USA?

Could Germany set a precedent for example? Or Japan or the UK? Or Russia for that matter?

I think that I would replace the word "excuse" for "precedent" myself.

Like when you tell off a child for hitting his brother and the child says but Susan hit him first, I'm just following her precedent.

 

[Ananda]

if the USA has done something horrendous then that is a precedent and anyone else can justify doing the same?

When they see USA can get away with it, yes someone will use it as precedent.

 

[vikingatespam]

So if the USA has done something horrendous then that is a precedent and anyone else can justify doing the same?

There is a clear moral and ethical difference between ending WW2 and the RU invasion of UKR.

 

[Redshift]

There is a clear moral and ethical difference between ending WW2 and the RU invasion of UKR.

I'm not disputing that, and as I said, as a younger man I thought that it was the correct thing to do, I have changed my viewpoint as I have aged.

 

[Feanor]

Just because the USA did it does not make it right or make it a precedent.

The USA used nuclear bombs to end the war with Japan, that was not right (in my opinion, as a younger man I thought that it was right) and I certainly hope that it isn't used as a justification to repeat that act by anyone ever again.

Whoever they were targeting this strike was guaranteed to kill civilians, mothers, father's, children , aunties , uncles.

Yep. If it is is what I think it is, it's an ugly action that definitely shouldn't have happened.

Also from a military point of view it is ineffective, how many enemy combatants are you going to put out of action in this way?

Well... here it depends. The KIA toll is reportedly 52. If intelligence indicated that the funeral would be predominantly attended by members of his unit, that could be a meaningful strike. On the front lines soldiers move in extremely small units, squad and fire team sized elements are the norm. So killing a platoon worth of enemy in one strike might be worth expending an Iskander. Depending on how many Russia has to expend.

This kind of action also , usually, strengthens the resolve of those being targeted, it is seen as an indication that it is better to keep fighting rather than die anyway from an attack like this on your own territory.

It might depending on a number of factors. It might also quietly go unnoticed among the general horror of the war.

 

[vikingatespam]

Well... here it depends. The KIA toll is reportedly 52. If intelligence indicated that the funeral would be predominantly attended by members of his unit, that could be a meaningful strike. On the front lines soldiers move in extremely small units, squad and fire team sized elements are the norm. So killing a platoon worth of enemy in one strike might be worth expending an Iskander. Depending on how many Russia has to expend.

I have a difficult time thinking that the RU have real time intelligence good enough to hit this. IMHO, the more likely scenario is that an Orlan happened to be in the area and saw a group of people.

 

[Feanor]

I have a difficult time thinking that the RU have real time intelligence good enough to hit this. IMHO, the more likely scenario is that an Orlan happened to be in the area and saw a group of people.

I suspect they could get info on something like a funeral from social media or HUMINT. I don't think Russia has Iskanders on stand-by ready to fire on any group of people. It's especially silly to expend them on a random crowd of people in civilian attire at a grocery store.

 

[John Fedup]

I'm not disputing that, and as I said, as a younger man I thought that it was the correct thing to do, I have changed my viewpoint as I have aged.

Strongly disagree, the bomb had to be used for political and military reasons.

 

[Redshift]

Strongly disagree, the bomb had to be used for political and military reasons.

That's fine, I'm not staying a fact just my opinion.

 

[vikingatespam]

Is there and IS-Palestine forum ? Massive Hamas attack in Gaza.

 

[Feanor]

Is there and IS-Palestine forum ? Massive Hamas attack in Gaza.

There's this thread;

Middle East Defence & Security

It's funny to call this a crisis because we have always been at war. Anyway, Does you have any strategic insight to share about the growing ISIL threat in the region? I'm particularly interested with Jordanian defense capability against the group. As voices inside Jordan claim that ISIL...

www.defencetalk.com

If you anticipate many posts and detailed discussion it may be worthwhile to start a separate thread.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

It appears Ukraine's offensive in Zaporozhye is spent. We may see some further attacks out of the Rabotino salient specifically, but it's unlikely there will be any drastic changes at this point. In the meantime Russia has launched some local counter-attacks on the Vremyevskiy bulge, taking a handful of strong points. Ukraine is still pushing near Artemovsk/Bakhmut and there are still reports of Ukrainian forces concentrated north of Soledar in the Seversk area. In all likelihood there is still a blow to land here, though it's unclear if it will happen, since Russia has resumed attacks on the entire Oskol front. These units may end up expended as reserves near Kupyansk or Makeevka.

On the Oskol front we have reports of Russian forces pushing towards Makeevka, and have reached the Svatovo-Kupyansk road south of Kotlyarovka.

СОЛДАТ УДАЧИ

Бойцы штурмовых механизированных подразделений ЦВО ВС России выбили противника с позиций в районе Табаевка на Сватовском направлении. Враг был вынужден отойти в населенный пункт. Шоссе Сватово — Купянск было перерезано южнее Котляровки. Солдат Удачи. Подпишись!

t.me

Several destroyed crossings on the Oskol. Presumably Russia's own version of shaping operations before pushing on the area. Note at least one destroyed crossing was an improvised one, not a regular bridge. This points to the potential problem with this. If Ukraine can put up improvised crossings relatively quickly and easily, the disruption will be minimal. Of course there's an open question of whether these improvised crossings can handle heavier vehicles like SP howitzers or MBTs.

Купянск Наш

Нужно в этот месте ещё немного доработать! А так взялись основательно.

t.me

Купянск Наш

Временная переправа ВСУ в районе села Канцедаловка и пгт. Купянск-Узловой (Харьковская область) @ukrainian_guide

t.me

Купянск Наш

В Купянске сегодня уничтожена временная переправа через реку Купянка. С мест сообщали, что мост ВСУ положили несколько дней назад. @ukrainian_guide

t.me

Рыбарь

Похоже, российские войска взялись за уничтожение переправ через Оскол в районе Купянска. За последние пару недель ударами авиации уничтожены как минимум пять переправ, что не может не сказаться на снабжении группировки украинских сил на восточном берегу. Сложно предполагать, планируется ли...

t.me

It appears Ukraine managed to evacuate one of the damaged Strv 122s used near Artemovsk/Bakhmut. The vehicle is likely to be repairable despite multiple FPV drone impacts.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A look at the ruins of Klescheevka. The footage illustrates why it's hard to hold what amounts to piles of rubble.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A look at Russia's recent counterattacks on the Vremyevskiy bulge.

Рыбарь

❗️ Времьевский участок: бои за лесопосадки и продвижение ВС РФ обстановка по состоянию на 20.00 2 октября 2023 года После вывода бригад морской пехоты на Херсонское направление основные рубежи на Времьевском участке заняли подразделения 58 мотопехотной бригады совместно с 128 обр ТРО и 1...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/10/02/20231002193338-0e5d22be.jpg

Russia also struck a bridge over the Mokrie Yaly river on the Vremyevskiy bulge. Note the strike damaged the bridge but one section is still standing, meaning it can still be used. This has been a pattern with Russia needing to double-tap some bridges to guarantee destruction.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russia also struck a bridge in Velikaya Novoselka, in the same area.

Воин DV

Вчера мы опубликовали видео уничтожения моста через реку Шайтанка в Великой Новосёлке и в комментарии к видео заикнулись о том, что неплохо было бы еще снести соседний мост через реку Мокрые Ялы (47.839988, 36.825672). Не знаем, читают ли нас наши бомберы, но вчера этот мост был уничтожен. ВКС...

t.me

Interesting tidbits.

Russia allegedly hit another S-300 unit in Nikolaev area near Sokolovka. Note something is burning in the wake of the strike. However we can't be certain that this isn't a sophisticated decoy. Reportedly this was a Tornado-S strike, Russia's closest equivalent to the HIMARS.

LOSTARMOUR | Carthago delenda est!

Разбор удара ОТРК по дивизиону ЗРК С-300 ВСУ Николаевской области Геопривязка https://lostarmour.info/news/news_23_10_08_ria_s300 В облако шрапнели попало очень много чего: 1. Само место прилета 2. Две пусковые установки, обе горят 3. Две пусковые установки, одна из них горит 4. Две пусковые...

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Красивое. РСЗО "Торнадо-С" поражает позиции украинского ЗРК С-300. Главный козырь "Торнадо-С", помимо убойности, это его дальность.

t.me

Russia has been repeatedly hitting the Kharkov armored repair plant recently. It's unclear why now, though the target itself is certainly logical enough. It's likely Russia has some reason to think the factory is more active now then previously.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

An interesting Ukrainian T-72 (AMT?) with K-5 tiles and an M2 HMG instead of the regular NSVT. Ukraine had a shortage of machineguns even pre-war, so this replacement makes sense.

Импортозамещение

Браунинг М2 вместо НСВТ у Т-72 ВСУ

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

One of Ukraine's Gepards is an unknown variant with what looks like a new cooling system, possibly needed for upgraded electronics inside the vehicle.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

First footage of Ukraine's improvised S-200 surface-to-surface variant. Ukraine has used these systems regularly. Russian sources speculate this is intended to strike targets, but I don't think so. I suspect they're being used to test Russian air defenses before a real strike package is sent.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A look at Russia's own set of sophisticated decoys.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian 2S31 Vena in the war. Note the added roof cage. Also there is a rocket-assisted shell in the vehicle, an uncommon shell in an uncommon vehicle. The commentator shows off the commander's laser range finder, a commander's turret that can rotate independently of the main turret. Lastly he discusses the automated targeting system that can take data from a comms system and automatically set the gun to the correct parameters. While not brand new, this is in principle a modern self-propelled gun-mortar system. Again systems of this type are badly lacking in Russian service.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A T-90M with a Volnorez tank EW system on the turret. Systems like this are slowly showing up all over the place.

Colonelcassad

РЭБ "Волнорез" на танке Т-90М. Образцы "народного" РЭБ уже появляются на боевых машинах. @Lunay14 | сбор на РЭБ |

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A Russian T-62M and BTS-4 covered in cages top to bottom. Note the sides look like slat armor, but the top is clearly an anti-drone cage.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Another 2M-3M MT-LB. The type looks set to become a staple for units hailing from East MD in place of scarce Shilkas and Tunguskas. Presumably there are quite a few of these turrets available from decomissioned ships.

"Флотский МТЛБ" вблизи

Толково сделали, в отлииче от первых машин - утопили башню в корпус

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Another branch of the MT-LB evolutionary tree, here is one of them with the naval A-22 MLRS firing.

Colonelcassad

Кадры работы ПУ МС-227 корабельного комплекса А-22 "Огонь", установленная на гусеничное шасси МТ-ЛБ ВС РФ. @inzheneryChMFlot

t.me

Iranian Arash 122mm rockets being used by Russian Grads.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian 42nd MRDiv using a Chinese buggy, in Zaporozhye. This was likely purchased by volunteers or through intermediaries. I doubt this indicates direct military supplies by China.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

General context.

An interesting reuters article suggesting that Russia is recruiting Cubans to fight in Ukraine. Note the Russian military does accept foreigners for service.

Special Report: How Cubans were recruited to fight for Russia

Reuters traced the stories of men going to Russia to fight Ukraine. Interviews, WhatsApp messages, photos and travel papers offer the most detailed picture yet of how Cubans are shoring up Moscow's war machine.

www.reuters.com

Russia is building a new highway from Rostov to Mariupol'. Mariupol' area is the one part of territory Russia took where significant development efforts are underway.

Colonelcassad

Успешно продвигается строительство новой шоссейной дороги от Ростова до Мариуполя, что серьезно улучшит вопросы логистики на Запорожском и Херсонском направлениях. Противник негодует по поводу этих инфраструктурных усилий.

t.me

A document has surfaced online, that if genuine, is an internal document of Ukraine's Migration Service that indicates there are only ~23 million people left in Ukraine. This number isn't all that surprising, considering how many people have left the country, and how many nominally Ukrainian citizens live in the LDNR and Crimea.

Украинский экс-премьер: Миграционная служба Украины подтверждает, что на территории страны осталось всего 23 миллиона человек

Современную Украину постигла настоящая демографическая катастрофа. Это следует из опубликованного документа государственной миграционной службы, в котором приводится нынешняя численность населения Украины. На документ обратил внимание Николай Азаров, бывший премьер Украины. По данным украинской

topwar.ru

Ukrainian fighters from Kraken apparently assaulted and disarmed Ukrainian police at a checkpoint when asked to present documents. Consequently a case has been opened against them. Kraken of course is the Azov element that operates in Kharkov area.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Wagner elements exiting Africa are preparing to ship out to Ukraine. They will reportedly be keeping their current organization and command structure.

Российский Telegram-канал сообщил об отправке в зону СВО первых штурмовых отрядов ЧВК «Вагнер» из Африки

Первые штурмовые отряды ЧВК "Вагнер" вылетают из Африки в Россию, они присоединятся к боевым действиям на одном из участков линии соприкосновения. Основная часть "Оркестра" возвращается в зону СВО после четырех месяцев отсутствия. Об этом сообщает ТГ-канал Рыбарь. О появлении

topwar.ru

A captured Ukrainian KrAZ Cobra in the hands of Belorussian territorial defense from Mogilev area. Allegedly handed over by Wagner forces.

Рубрика от Ледка

КрАЗ Кобра - трофей Взята в Донецкой области. Затрофеенный бойцами ЧВК Вагнер СБА, был передан подразделениям ТРО Могилевской области РБ. Источник ; №2

t.me