The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
Well to be honest I am not sure that the political affiliation of the soldier being buried justifies dropping a ballistic missile on his funeral.

Such a strike will certainly kill his relatives, regardless of who else attends.
he did not say that it would be justified, but that it would be in line with Russian Intelligence targetting. For some reason they seeem to be ok with expending expesnive muntion in trying to take out Ukraineian "Nazis" that Russian "Nazis" cannot bear to stand for some reason.

When this war is over, I would love to read a good book that looks into the convulated relationship between various European "Nazi/Nazi inspired" groups.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
he did not say that it would be justified, but that it would be in line with Russian Intelligence targetting.
This is exactly my point. To clarify, it seems the Russian government separates those fighting against Russia on ideological grounds vs those simply doing it because they got drafted and thus they classify foreign fighters and right-wing extremists as enemies in principle while the rest are just an unfortunate issue. This is not entirely arbitrary distinction but it was far more relevant during the '14-'15 campaigns then it is now.

Well to be honest I am not sure that the political affiliation of the soldier being buried justifies dropping a ballistic missile on his funeral.

Such a strike will certainly kill his relatives, regardless of who else attends.
They would presumably consider it collateral damage. Again just my assumption. Targeting funerals deliberately is problematic in my book in almost any circumstances. But I can see how Russian leadership made the decision. It lines up with previous strikes. Like the multiple times they hit cafes where foreign fighters were meeting in large quantity. The cafe staff were collateral damage.
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
This seems to be likely fitting a tighter schedule, I would think, if the claims in the post are accurate. Translation of the post via Google translate:

Strike by a 300-mm MLRS "Tornado-S" guided missile on a cluster of dry land at a training ground in the village of Kucherov Yar.

About 60 military personnel (including foreign instructors) were captured 50 km from the front line.


Edit: Google says “captured”, but of course it says killed (“covered” is the literal translation of the word they used in the post).

Edit 2: Rybar says that it was an Iskander strike; which makes a lot more sense:


In other news, Germany is planning to provide another Patriot system to Ukraine in the winter:

Is it confirmed that its a Iskander, the explosion seemed too small to be a Iskander and the airbusrt seems to indicate a Tornado S rocket.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/171r56n
here is another alleged Tornado S strike 70km from front line.

This one and the other train deep strikes all have one thing in common, a spotter drone penetrating way deep into Ukraine. Ithink these are all Orlans, so it seems Russia has seriously boosted Orlan production.

recently there has been an increase of 'doomposting' from the pro Ukr crowd, the realities of the counteroffensive are starting to settle in.

Here are three threads from the Ukr military OSINT of some quality tatragami-


This one shows increased Russian training facilities. Through out last year and this years mobilizations training facilities have been a major bottleneck for the Russian, seems like they are taking steps to fix it.


In this thread the guy mentions the problems the Ukrainians are facing due to Russian mobiks plugging holes and the over all geenral issues with the counter offensive so far.


In this thread he shows how Russian fortifications are more impressive than previously though and blames the foreign observers for failing to catch it. But I think he should be blaming his side for the failure more. Its the UKR recon groups who failed to catch all of this, why blame foreign observers?
A
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Is it confirmed that its a Iskander, the explosion seemed too small to be a Iskander and the airbusrt seems to indicate a Tornado S rocket.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/171r56n
here is another alleged Tornado S strike 70km from front line.

This one and the other train deep strikes all have one thing in common, a spotter drone penetrating way deep into Ukraine. Ithink these are all Orlans, so it seems Russia has seriously boosted Orlan production.

recently there has been an increase of 'doomposting' from the pro Ukr crowd, the realities of the counteroffensive are starting to settle in.

Here are three threads from the Ukr military OSINT of some quality tatragami-


This one shows increased Russian training facilities. Through out last year and this years mobilizations training facilities have been a major bottleneck for the Russian, seems like they are taking steps to fix it.


In this thread the guy mentions the problems the Ukrainians are facing due to Russian mobiks plugging holes and the over all geenral issues with the counter offensive so far.


In this thread he shows how Russian fortifications are more impressive than previously though and blames the foreign observers for failing to catch it. But I think he should be blaming his side for the failure more. Its the UKR recon groups who failed to catch all of this, why blame foreign observers?
A
This is not surprising. Ukraine's offensive appears to be dead in the water. There are additional units being formed and we will likely see more efforts but they will be costly and they are unlikely to bring success. In the meantime there are reports of Russian forces resuming local offensives in the Vremyevskiy bulge and towards Kupyansk (the latter makes a lot of sense given the recent bridge strikes). Despite the supply of western SAMs Russia retains (and has probably expanded) their ability to strike Ukraine from the sky, and isn't losing on the ground. In other words, without something changing, Ukraine's future is grim for the next few months. With another major push, a new wave of Ukrainian units on the scale of the last one could be prepared, but it's not clear that this would necessarily change anything. Overall Ukraine likely needs to make peace. Recovering some mostly empty steppes in Zaporozhye or the ruins of a few more towns in the Donbass isn't worth the human or economic cost of continuing the fight. However it's unclear that the West or Russia are prepared to call quites. Russia would probably sign peace under some sort of terms, but what those would look like at this point is very unclear. And Zelensky isn't likely to tell the west to stick it where the shine don't shine while he makes an ugly compromise with Russia. So for a Ukrainian the future is a continuing war but with no hope of true victory, no end in sight, and Russia gaining in strength due to both technological adaptations and Ukraine's resources running out slowly but surely.
 

Redshift

Active Member
he did not say that it would be justified, but that it would be in line with Russian Intelligence targetting. For some reason they seeem to be ok with expending expesnive muntion in trying to take out Ukraineian "Nazis" that Russian "Nazis" cannot bear to stand for some reason.

When this war is over, I would love to read a good book that looks into the convulated relationship between various European "Nazi/Nazi inspired" groups.
No Feanor did not, but it would seem that Russia thinks that way.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
For some reason they seeem to be ok with expending expesnive muntion in trying to take out Ukraineian "Nazis" that Russian "Nazis" cannot bear to stand for some reason
To be fair, targeting funeral by dropping a missile there is not without precedent outside Russia. US done it several times allready against 'militants' funerals. Funeral is time when 'colleagues' come out to the open. So question is whose Russian targeting toward this funeral attendance.

This will reflect if this is good or bad intell.
 

Redshift

Active Member
To be fair, targeting funeral by dropping a missile there is not without precedent outside Russia. US done it several times allready against 'militants' funerals. Funeral is time when 'colleagues' come out to the open. So question is whose Russian targeting toward this funeral attendance.

This will reflect if this is good or bad intell.
Just because the USA did it does not make it right or make it a precedent.

The USA used nuclear bombs to end the war with Japan, that was not right (in my opinion, as a younger man I thought that it was right) and I certainly hope that it isn't used as a justification to repeat that act by anyone ever again.

Whoever they were targeting this strike was guaranteed to kill civilians, mothers, father's, children , aunties , uncles.

Also from a military point of view it is ineffective, how many enemy combatants are you going to put out of action in this way?

This kind of action also , usually, strengthens the resolve of those being targeted, it is seen as an indication that it is better to keep fighting rather than die anyway from an attack like this on your own territory.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
because the USA did it does not make it right or make it a precedent.
Well off course it is not right, however it is like it or not is precedent for others to use.

Also from a military point of view it is ineffective, how many enemy combatants are you going to put out of action in this way
Targeting funeral never been kiling many combatants, it is part of targeted assassination. US done this also to target certain individuals that's highly targeted.

You don't send expensive assets just to destroy bunch of vilagers. If this is targeted attack toward certain individuals that come to that funeral (as Russian telegrams speculations), then again it is base on Intell data.

So either this is misshap, or targeted attack. Depends on whose individuals they are targeted, or simply intell misshap.
 

Redshift

Active Member
Well off course it is not right, however it is like it or not is precedent for others to use.
So if the USA has done something horrendous then that is a precedent and anyone else can justify doing the same?

Does this rule apply to other countries or is it just the USA?

Could Germany set a precedent for example? Or Japan or the UK? Or Russia for that matter?

I think that I would replace the word "excuse" for "precedent" myself.

Like when you tell off a child for hitting his brother and the child says but Susan hit him first, I'm just following her precedent.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Just because the USA did it does not make it right or make it a precedent.

The USA used nuclear bombs to end the war with Japan, that was not right (in my opinion, as a younger man I thought that it was right) and I certainly hope that it isn't used as a justification to repeat that act by anyone ever again.

Whoever they were targeting this strike was guaranteed to kill civilians, mothers, father's, children , aunties , uncles.
Yep. If it is is what I think it is, it's an ugly action that definitely shouldn't have happened.

Also from a military point of view it is ineffective, how many enemy combatants are you going to put out of action in this way?
Well... here it depends. The KIA toll is reportedly 52. If intelligence indicated that the funeral would be predominantly attended by members of his unit, that could be a meaningful strike. On the front lines soldiers move in extremely small units, squad and fire team sized elements are the norm. So killing a platoon worth of enemy in one strike might be worth expending an Iskander. Depending on how many Russia has to expend.

This kind of action also , usually, strengthens the resolve of those being targeted, it is seen as an indication that it is better to keep fighting rather than die anyway from an attack like this on your own territory.
It might depending on a number of factors. It might also quietly go unnoticed among the general horror of the war.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Well... here it depends. The KIA toll is reportedly 52. If intelligence indicated that the funeral would be predominantly attended by members of his unit, that could be a meaningful strike. On the front lines soldiers move in extremely small units, squad and fire team sized elements are the norm. So killing a platoon worth of enemy in one strike might be worth expending an Iskander. Depending on how many Russia has to expend.
I have a difficult time thinking that the RU have real time intelligence good enough to hit this. IMHO, the more likely scenario is that an Orlan happened to be in the area and saw a group of people.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I have a difficult time thinking that the RU have real time intelligence good enough to hit this. IMHO, the more likely scenario is that an Orlan happened to be in the area and saw a group of people.
I suspect they could get info on something like a funeral from social media or HUMINT. I don't think Russia has Iskanders on stand-by ready to fire on any group of people. It's especially silly to expend them on a random crowd of people in civilian attire at a grocery store.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Is there and IS-Palestine forum ? Massive Hamas attack in Gaza.
There's this thread;


If you anticipate many posts and detailed discussion it may be worthwhile to start a separate thread.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

It appears Ukraine's offensive in Zaporozhye is spent. We may see some further attacks out of the Rabotino salient specifically, but it's unlikely there will be any drastic changes at this point. In the meantime Russia has launched some local counter-attacks on the Vremyevskiy bulge, taking a handful of strong points. Ukraine is still pushing near Artemovsk/Bakhmut and there are still reports of Ukrainian forces concentrated north of Soledar in the Seversk area. In all likelihood there is still a blow to land here, though it's unclear if it will happen, since Russia has resumed attacks on the entire Oskol front. These units may end up expended as reserves near Kupyansk or Makeevka.

On the Oskol front we have reports of Russian forces pushing towards Makeevka, and have reached the Svatovo-Kupyansk road south of Kotlyarovka.


Several destroyed crossings on the Oskol. Presumably Russia's own version of shaping operations before pushing on the area. Note at least one destroyed crossing was an improvised one, not a regular bridge. This points to the potential problem with this. If Ukraine can put up improvised crossings relatively quickly and easily, the disruption will be minimal. Of course there's an open question of whether these improvised crossings can handle heavier vehicles like SP howitzers or MBTs.


It appears Ukraine managed to evacuate one of the damaged Strv 122s used near Artemovsk/Bakhmut. The vehicle is likely to be repairable despite multiple FPV drone impacts.


A look at the ruins of Klescheevka. The footage illustrates why it's hard to hold what amounts to piles of rubble.


A look at Russia's recent counterattacks on the Vremyevskiy bulge.


Russia also struck a bridge over the Mokrie Yaly river on the Vremyevskiy bulge. Note the strike damaged the bridge but one section is still standing, meaning it can still be used. This has been a pattern with Russia needing to double-tap some bridges to guarantee destruction.


Russia also struck a bridge in Velikaya Novoselka, in the same area.



Interesting tidbits.

Russia allegedly hit another S-300 unit in Nikolaev area near Sokolovka. Note something is burning in the wake of the strike. However we can't be certain that this isn't a sophisticated decoy. Reportedly this was a Tornado-S strike, Russia's closest equivalent to the HIMARS.


Russia has been repeatedly hitting the Kharkov armored repair plant recently. It's unclear why now, though the target itself is certainly logical enough. It's likely Russia has some reason to think the factory is more active now then previously.


An interesting Ukrainian T-72 (AMT?) with K-5 tiles and an M2 HMG instead of the regular NSVT. Ukraine had a shortage of machineguns even pre-war, so this replacement makes sense.


One of Ukraine's Gepards is an unknown variant with what looks like a new cooling system, possibly needed for upgraded electronics inside the vehicle.


First footage of Ukraine's improvised S-200 surface-to-surface variant. Ukraine has used these systems regularly. Russian sources speculate this is intended to strike targets, but I don't think so. I suspect they're being used to test Russian air defenses before a real strike package is sent.


A look at Russia's own set of sophisticated decoys.


Russian 2S31 Vena in the war. Note the added roof cage. Also there is a rocket-assisted shell in the vehicle, an uncommon shell in an uncommon vehicle. The commentator shows off the commander's laser range finder, a commander's turret that can rotate independently of the main turret. Lastly he discusses the automated targeting system that can take data from a comms system and automatically set the gun to the correct parameters. While not brand new, this is in principle a modern self-propelled gun-mortar system. Again systems of this type are badly lacking in Russian service.


A T-90M with a Volnorez tank EW system on the turret. Systems like this are slowly showing up all over the place.


A Russian T-62M and BTS-4 covered in cages top to bottom. Note the sides look like slat armor, but the top is clearly an anti-drone cage.


Another 2M-3M MT-LB. The type looks set to become a staple for units hailing from East MD in place of scarce Shilkas and Tunguskas. Presumably there are quite a few of these turrets available from decomissioned ships.


Another branch of the MT-LB evolutionary tree, here is one of them with the naval A-22 MLRS firing.


Iranian Arash 122mm rockets being used by Russian Grads.


Russian 42nd MRDiv using a Chinese buggy, in Zaporozhye. This was likely purchased by volunteers or through intermediaries. I doubt this indicates direct military supplies by China.


General context.

An interesting reuters article suggesting that Russia is recruiting Cubans to fight in Ukraine. Note the Russian military does accept foreigners for service.


Russia is building a new highway from Rostov to Mariupol'. Mariupol' area is the one part of territory Russia took where significant development efforts are underway.


A document has surfaced online, that if genuine, is an internal document of Ukraine's Migration Service that indicates there are only ~23 million people left in Ukraine. This number isn't all that surprising, considering how many people have left the country, and how many nominally Ukrainian citizens live in the LDNR and Crimea.


Ukrainian fighters from Kraken apparently assaulted and disarmed Ukrainian police at a checkpoint when asked to present documents. Consequently a case has been opened against them. Kraken of course is the Azov element that operates in Kharkov area.


Wagner elements exiting Africa are preparing to ship out to Ukraine. They will reportedly be keeping their current organization and command structure.


A captured Ukrainian KrAZ Cobra in the hands of Belorussian territorial defense from Mogilev area. Allegedly handed over by Wagner forces.

 
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