The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[ngatimozart]

The US Congress approved and Biden signed a temporary funding bill, from which Ukraine aid was dropped completely. Biden asked for $24B, the Congress came back with $6, but even that didn’t work out.

Government shutdown averted with little time to spare as Biden signs funding before midnight

The threat of a federal government shutdown ended late Saturday night after Congress approved a temporary funding bill to keep federal agencies open until Nov. 17.

apnews.com

The US political system is highly dysfunctional and it is the only govt in the world where a govt shutdown occurs because of the inability of pollies to make a decision. Everywhere else govt work and funding carries on regardless of circumstances; war, natural disasters, pandemics etc. The US govt system a very unique, highly inefficient and illogical system.

This is more interesting though. It appears that the Brits are actually thinking to move in their military personnel to train the UA forces in Ukraine:

Grant Shapps to ramp up support for Volodymyr Zelensky

UK to boost training for Ukrainian soldiers, and Navy may help protect grain vessels

www.telegraph.co.uk

Maybe, maybe not. We'll see.

Grant Shapps is pretty widely regarded to be an idiot, I wouldn't trust anything that he says myself.

That's a political post that doesn't add anything to the ongoing disscussion.

The Royal Navy aren't going to do anything, it is no more likely that the British army suddenly turning up or the RAF deciding to fly combat missions over Ukraine.

More crap from a government expecting to lose power very soon and desperate to try to be relevant.

Any more political posts from you and you will be further sanctioned by the Moderators. There is no need for this crap. Awarded 12 demerit points for 1 year,

 

[Ananda]

Already see this video from pro Russian telegram couple days ago, and wait for someone to upload this on you tube. What interest me is the effects of this Iskander M warheads. Asside on large detonation, also seems numerous smaller ones in the radius of big detonation.

I'm no expert on detonation, however seems like this Iskander warheads also has clusters debris detonation. Some online comments seems think that also. Are that assessment accurate?

If that so then this is seems Russian answer to US agreeing on providing cluster munition to Ukrainian.

 

[Redshift]

Already see this video from pro Russian telegram couple days ago, and wait for someone to upload this on you tube. What interest me is the effects of this Iskander M warheads. Asside on large detonation, also seems numerous smaller ones in the radius of big detonation.

I'm no expert on detonation, however seems like this Iskander warheads also has clusters debris detonation. Some online comments seems think that also. Are that assessment accurate?

If that so then this is seems Russian answer to US agreeing on providing cluster munition to Ukrainian.

I was under the impression that Russia was using cluster munitions long before any were supplied to Ukraine.

Russia's 'Widespread Use' Of Cluster Munitions In Ukraine Condemned In New HRW Report

The Russian military's extensive use of cluster munitions in the war in Ukraine has brought about lasting harm and suffering to hundreds of civilians, Human Rights Watch said in a report released on August 25.

www.rferl.org

Cluster Munition Use in Russia-Ukraine War

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russian armed forces have used cluster munitions in attacks that have caused hundreds of civilian casualties and damaged civilian objects, including homes, hospitals, and schools. The Ukrainian military has not denied credible...

www.hrw.org

Ukraine war brings surge in global use of cluster bombs

The number of people killed or wounded by cluster munitions increased eightfold last year to more than 1,000, mostly due to their use in the Ukraine war, particularly by Russia, a campaign group said on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

I personally wish that the USA had not supplied cluster weapons to Ukraine as it seems to me that matching every action with an equal response can be treated as an escalation and it falls into the Russian propaganda trap.

I also wish that the West had not supplied DU tank rounds for the same reason.

 

[Feanor]

I was under the impression that Russia was using cluster munitions long before any were supplied to Ukraine.

You impression is correct and iirc the Iskander has cluster munition warhead options.

Already see this video from pro Russian telegram couple days ago, and wait for someone to upload this on you tube. What interest me is the effects of this Iskander M warheads. Asside on large detonation, also seems numerous smaller ones in the radius of big detonation.

I'm no expert on detonation, however seems like this Iskander warheads also has clusters debris detonation. Some online comments seems think that also. Are that assessment accurate?

If that so then this is seems Russian answer to US agreeing on providing cluster munition to Ukrainian.

I don't think this is the answer. In my opinion the fact that Russia seems to have developed the ability to regularly strike Ukrainian military trains is far more significant then the choice of munition they used to hit them. At this point Russia has plenty of munitions that hit things. The problem is getting the intel and coordinating the strike within a short enough timeframe to hit something like a train.

 

[StobieWan]

I was under the impression that Russia was using cluster munitions long before any were supplied to Ukraine.

Russia's 'Widespread Use' Of Cluster Munitions In Ukraine Condemned In New HRW Report

The Russian military's extensive use of cluster munitions in the war in Ukraine has brought about lasting harm and suffering to hundreds of civilians, Human Rights Watch said in a report released on August 25.

www.rferl.org

Cluster Munition Use in Russia-Ukraine War

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russian armed forces have used cluster munitions in attacks that have caused hundreds of civilian casualties and damaged civilian objects, including homes, hospitals, and schools. The Ukrainian military has not denied credible...

www.hrw.org

Ukraine war brings surge in global use of cluster bombs

The number of people killed or wounded by cluster munitions increased eightfold last year to more than 1,000, mostly due to their use in the Ukraine war, particularly by Russia, a campaign group said on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

I personally wish that the USA had not supplied cluster weapons to Ukraine as it seems to me that matching every action with an equal response can be treated as an escalation and it falls into the Russian propaganda trap.

I also wish that the West had not supplied DU tank rounds for the same reason.

Russia and Ukraine both had access to stocks of soviet era cluster munitions before the US sent any - and Russia certainly has DU rounds to hand so I can't see this as escalatory.

I do wish neither side would use cluster munitions as they will be the gift that keeps on giving for years, if not decades to come.

 

[Ananda]

The problem is getting the intel and coordinating the strike within a short enough timeframe to hit something like a train.

This is one thing that Russian SIGINT capabilities that's seems being question (at least by Western sources) as lack behind NATO ones (that clearly help Ukrainian counter attack). Meanwhile Russia have assets ranges that capable on doing this from satellites to UAV.



Something that should be deployed more on this war, however even Pro Russian Telegram and online sites forums, seems acknowledge Russian lack SIGINT assets deployment. @Feanor is there any more insight on Russian production or conversion on those assets?

 

[Feanor]

This is one thing that Russian SIGINT capabilities that's seems being question (at least by Western sources) as lack behind NATO ones (that clearly help Ukrainian counter attack). Meanwhile Russia have assets ranges that capable on doing this from satellites to UAV.

View attachment 50846View attachment 50847View attachment 50848

Something that should be deployed more on this war, however even Pro Russian Telegram and online sites forums, seems acknowledge Russian lack SIGINT assets deployment. @Feanor is there any more insight on Russian production or conversion on those assets?

No there is not. The Il-22PP is conspicuously absent. Note it's possible it's getting used and we just aren't hearing about it. But it's clearly not the game changer it's supposed to be. Two Tu-214Rs were built with a third in progress. After the first two were built, it was crickets about the third, with some suggesting that there were issues with OKR Samolet-M. Orion-S are in play but they have to stay well away from Ukrainian SAMs. Like their Turkish counterparts they are relatively easy targets for any sophisticated system. Russia also suffers from issues with their operation as a whole. For Russian 1.5 hours from a strike called in to gliding bombs on target is good. But realistically when Ukraine is launching a major offensive there should be air on station with bombs ready to go. They do need time to "glide" to the target but it should be faster then 1.5 hours. Consider what happened when they used them for a counter-battery strike? It got there too late.

 

[seaspear]

I understood the train and cargo that were hit by missile ware stationary suggesting good intelligence

 

[Feanor]

I understood the train and cargo that were hit by missile ware stationary suggesting good intelligence

There were 4 trains hit in the past ~month. Before that there were ~4 trains hit in the entire war. This is a difference in quality. Russia has had long range strike capability to hit pretty much anywhere in Ukraine this entire war. So it's not the new munitions that are the big difference.

 

[swerve]

Russia and Ukraine both had access to stocks of soviet era cluster munitions before the US sent any - and Russia certainly has DU rounds to hand so I can't see this as escalatory.

I do wish neither side would use cluster munitions as they will be the gift that keeps on giving for years, if not decades to come.

The minefields are already going to do that.

 

[Feanor]

The minefields are already going to do that.

I think the key difference is that nobody is laying massive numbers of landmines in the middle of major cities (Ukraine's several instances of remote-mining Donetsk aside). Cluster munitions can create UXO issues inside major urban areas and often in ways that are hard to find. A building gets hit by a cluster-strike. It's entirely plausible for a bomblet to be left in the rubble, and to be missed in the initial cleanup. The giant minefields in Zaporozhye are going to be a problem but you can fence them off and clear the roads through there. The farmland will be unusable until the cleanup is done but otherwise the impact is minimal. It's hard to easily state which is more impactful ultimately but I think there is a meaningful distinction.

 

[KipPotapych]

No there is not. The Il-22PP is conspicuously absent. Note it's possible it's getting used and we just aren't hearing about it. But it's clearly not the game changer it's supposed to be. Two Tu-214Rs were built with a third in progress. After the first two were built, it was crickets about the third, with some suggesting that there were issues with OKR Samolet-M. Orion-S are in play but they have to stay well away from Ukrainian SAMs. Like their Turkish counterparts they are relatively easy targets for any sophisticated system. Russia also suffers from issues with their operation as a whole. For Russian 1.5 hours from a strike called in to gliding bombs on target is good. But realistically when Ukraine is launching a major offensive there should be air on station with bombs ready to go. They do need time to "glide" to the target but it should be faster then 1.5 hours. Consider what happened when they used them for a counter-battery strike? It got there too late.

This seems to be likely fitting a tighter schedule, I would think, if the claims in the post are accurate. Translation of the post via Google translate:

Strike by a 300-mm MLRS "Tornado-S" guided missile on a cluster of dry land at a training ground in the village of Kucherov Yar.

About 60 military personnel (including foreign instructors) were captured 50 km from the front line.

Edit: Google says “captured”, but of course it says killed (“covered” is the literal translation of the word they used in the post).

Colonelcassad

Удар корректируемой ракетой 300-мм РСЗО "Торнадо-С" по скоплению всушников на полигоне в н.п Кучеров Яр. Около 60 всушников (в том числе иностранных инструкторов) были накрыты в 50-км от линии фронта. @yuzhny_front_ZOV

t.me

Edit 2: Rybar says that it was an Iskander strike; which makes a lot more sense:

Рыбарь

❗️ Удар по скоплению украинских десантников в Кучеров Яре Коллеги с канала Южный фронт опубликовали кадры ракетного удара «Искандером» по импровизированному полигону 77 аэромобильной бригады ДШВ Украины в окрестностях Кучеров Яра на Соледарском направлении. Координаты: 48.5041189, 37.2462911...

t.me

In other news, Germany is planning to provide another Patriot system to Ukraine in the winter:

Germany to provide Ukraine with an additional Patriot air defence system

Germany is working on the supply of an additional Patriot air defence missile system to Ukraine in the winter months, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

A remarkable plan, to start the construction of these UAVs in Ukraine. Sadly for the Russian armed forces, its not written in this article in which place the new facility will come.

Ukraine conflict: Aarok UAV to be built in Ukraine

The Ukrainian government has agreed with the Turgis & Gaillard group to the in-country production of its Aarok unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV).

www.janes.com

 

[Vivendi]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1710017768152616970

Indeed -- Europe and the US must keep supporting Ukraine until Russia accepts that taking Ukraine will be too costly. Russia is not interested in negotiations. Russia will also remain a threat to it's neighbors, until they realize Europe and the US will not allow them to rebuild their empire.

 

[Feanor]

Something has happened in the village of Groza near Kupyansk. A building was hit. It was either a cafe or a grocery store (it's possible it was both, the two often combine in small villages). There was a large group of people gathered there who were either locals lining up for humanitarian aid, or a funeral, possibly a funeral of a dead Ukrainian right wing volunteer fighter. The building was hit, either by a Ukrainian strike in a false flag or a Russian Iskander strike. Dozens KIAs are reported (over 50), either civilians, or other volunteer fighters in civilian attire. What makes the discrepancy remarkable is that these discrepancies all come from Russian sources. I don't have anything at this time from Ukrainian sources but the footage is grim. Noteworthy is that a Russian telegram channel Kupyansk Nash was predicting a Ukrainian false flag attack in the general Kupyansk area. Warning footage of corpses.

Colonelcassad

На фоне отчаянных просьб надуть финансирование Украины и получить деньги, нацистский режим в Киеве организовал очередное массовое убийство гражданских лиц, на этот раз в поселке Гроза Купняского района. Всего было убито 48 человек в результате обстрела продуктового магазина. Дерево...

t.me

Рыбарь

❗️ Об ударе ВС РФ по кафе в селе Гроза Пару дней назад российские войска нанесли удар из оперативно-тактического комплекса «Искандер» по местному кафе в селе Гроза Харьковской области. Координаты: 49.671702247957015, 37.20760380005739 Украинские власти сразу заявили, что в момент попадания в...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/10/06/20231006144509-7f4faf8f.jpg

Купянск Наш

Сегодня около 13:15 были обстреляны кафе и магазин в с. Гроза Купянского района, где было много гражданских людей. Уже свыше 50 погибших Это уже 3-й обстрел с массовыми жертвами, приуроченный ко встречам Зеленского. В предыдущих 2 была доказана вина Киева. Зеленский уже успел обвинить...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Еще сегодня утром канал "Наш Купянск" предупреждал, что в ближайшее время будет осуществлена кровавая провокация во время выдачи гуманитарной помощи. Впрочем, даже засвет их планов, нацистов не остановил. Была поставлена задача устроить кровавую бойню под очередной визит Зеленского и...

t.me

Personal thoughts. I find the idea of a Ukrainian false flag least likely. I think the likeliest scenario is that this was indeed a funeral of a Ukrainian service member, possibly with right-wing affiliations. It's entirely plausible (though not in any way supported by the admittedly very limited evidence on hand) that a number of those killed were other Ukrainian service members. And Russia has made it a point to strike gatherings of Ukrainian service members, especially right-wing volunteer formations and foreign fighters, in the rear, using anything from cruise missiles to Shaheds. An Iskander strike against a funeral of a right wing fighter, attended by many of his comrades would be a logical target. However whether that is in fact what they hit remains unclear.

 

[Vivendi]

New support package from Sweden. The package, which is the fourteenth of its kind, includes artillery shells, spare parts, infantry equipment, communication equipment and Combat Vehicle 90 ammunition, worth around SEK 1.7 billion. The main part of the package regards ammunition and spare parts. In addition, the Government plans to adopt additional measures to supplement the direct materiel support, meaning that this support package will be worth a total of around SEK 2.2 billion. With this fourteenth package, Sweden will have donated materiel worth around SEK 22.2 billion. (USD 2.03 billion).

The Swedish Armed Forces, supported by the Defence Materiel Administration, are analysing the implications of providing Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine. A report is due to be delivered November 6 -- this report will presumably be used to make an informed decision about whether to provide Gripen jets to Ukraine, at a later stage.

New military support package to Ukraine - Government.se

 

[Redshift]

Something has happened in the village of Groza near Kupyansk. A building was hit. It was either a cafe or a grocery store (it's possible it was both, the two often combine in small villages). There was a large group of people gathered there who were either locals lining up for humanitarian aid, or a funeral, possibly a funeral of a dead Ukrainian right wing volunteer fighter. The building was hit, either by a Ukrainian strike in a false flag or a Russian Iskander strike. Dozens KIAs are reported (over 50), either civilians, or other volunteer fighters in civilian attire. What makes the discrepancy remarkable is that these discrepancies all come from Russian sources. I don't have anything at this time from Ukrainian sources but the footage is grim. Noteworthy is that a Russian telegram channel Kupyansk Nash was predicting a Ukrainian false flag attack in the general Kupyansk area. Warning footage of corpses.

Colonelcassad

На фоне отчаянных просьб надуть финансирование Украины и получить деньги, нацистский режим в Киеве организовал очередное массовое убийство гражданских лиц, на этот раз в поселке Гроза Купняского района. Всего было убито 48 человек в результате обстрела продуктового магазина. Дерево...

t.me

Рыбарь

❗️ Об ударе ВС РФ по кафе в селе Гроза Пару дней назад российские войска нанесли удар из оперативно-тактического комплекса «Искандер» по местному кафе в селе Гроза Харьковской области. Координаты: 49.671702247957015, 37.20760380005739 Украинские власти сразу заявили, что в момент попадания в...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/10/06/20231006144509-7f4faf8f.jpg

Купянск Наш

Сегодня около 13:15 были обстреляны кафе и магазин в с. Гроза Купянского района, где было много гражданских людей. Уже свыше 50 погибших Это уже 3-й обстрел с массовыми жертвами, приуроченный ко встречам Зеленского. В предыдущих 2 была доказана вина Киева. Зеленский уже успел обвинить...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Еще сегодня утром канал "Наш Купянск" предупреждал, что в ближайшее время будет осуществлена кровавая провокация во время выдачи гуманитарной помощи. Впрочем, даже засвет их планов, нацистов не остановил. Была поставлена задача устроить кровавую бойню под очередной визит Зеленского и...

t.me

Personal thoughts. I find the idea of a Ukrainian false flag least likely. I think the likeliest scenario is that this was indeed a funeral of a Ukrainian service member, possibly with right-wing affiliations. It's entirely plausible (though not in any way supported by the admittedly very limited evidence on hand) that a number of those killed were other Ukrainian service members. And Russia has made it a point to strike gatherings of Ukrainian service members, especially right-wing volunteer formations and foreign fighters, in the rear, using anything from cruise missiles to Shaheds. An Iskander strike against a funeral of a right wing fighter, attended by many of his comrades would be a logical target. However whether that is in fact what they hit remains unclear.

Here is the BBC report of the event

BBC News - Ukraine war: Blood stains visible in the soil as village of Hroza mourns

Ukraine war: Blood stains visible in the soil as village of Hroza mourns

Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko says every family in Hroza has been affected by Thursday's missile strike.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Feanor]

Here is the BBC report of the event

BBC News - Ukraine war: Blood stains visible in the soil as village of Hroza mourns

Ukraine war: Blood stains visible in the soil as village of Hroza mourns

Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko says every family in Hroza has been affected by Thursday's missile strike.

www.bbc.co.uk

Ok so they confirm the funeral part. It would be interesting to know what unit he served in, that would confirm or refute Russia's right-wing label. There's also no mention of anyone from out of town being at the funeral. If this is accurate then the strike purely hit local civilians. They also reference a ballistic missile, consistent with rybar's report of it being an Iskander strike. So far this looks like bad intel leading to a PGM strike against a purely civilian target.

 

[Redshift]

Ok so they confirm the funeral part. It would be interesting to know what unit he served in, that would confirm or refute Russia's right-wing label. There's also no mention of anyone from out of town being at the funeral. If this is accurate then the strike purely hit local civilians. They also reference a ballistic missile, consistent with rybar's report of it being an Iskander strike. So far this looks like bad intel leading to a PGM strike against a purely civilian target.

Well to be honest I am not sure that the political affiliation of the soldier being buried justifies dropping a ballistic missile on his funeral.

Such a strike will certainly kill his relatives, regardless of who else attends.

 

[John Fedup]

Well to be honest I am not sure that the political affiliation of the soldier being buried justifies dropping a ballistic missile on his funeral.

Such a strike will certainly kill his relatives, regardless of who else attends.

As Feanor mentioned, likely bad intel. There are more important targets for such an expensive missile.