Indo Pacific strategy

[Sandhi Yudha]

Interesting. The ASEAN-Indian fleet consists of 7 ships, from the navies of Brunei, India, Indonesia, Phillipines, Thailand, Vietnam and another country.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1655341809692975104

Update:
In the end nothing happens.

India, ASEAN Hold First Maritime Exercises

India has long used its navy to build ties with maritime nations in the Indo-Pacific, but this exercise steps up collaboration by tying up with ASEAN as a group.

thediplomat.com

 

[telpher]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1658074611857121280

防衛省・自衛隊：警戒管制レーダーの移転に伴う教育支援

www.mod.go.jp

The first J/FPS-3ME radar is being assembled in the Philippines.
This is Japan's first export of weapons.
Training of operational personnel of the Philippine Air Force is already underway in Japan and is scheduled to be completed by June 2023.

It is also important for Japan's defense.
It has long been pointed out that the Bashi Strait is a surveillance hole in Japan's air defense system.
Since aircraft could not be detected if they entered the Philippine Sea from the south, aircrafts like H-6 with a long cruising range could operate in the Pacific Ocean without being noticed by Japan.

The J/FPS-3ME export contract includes an option clause to share radar information between the Philippines and Japan.
Once this radar is installed in northern Luzon island (And of course, if the information sharing agreement is signed over the objections of the Chinese), JASDF interceptors will be able to respond in good time to PLA aircraft through the Bashi Strait.

For the Philippines, it is also possible to obtain Japanese radar information, especially on PLA aircraft entering the Philippine Sea through the Miyako Strait.
I think it would be difficult to build high-end network like NATO's one, but even a quick warning would be very useful in air defense.

 

[OPSSG]

Post 1 of 2: Preserving a Legacy of Liberty and Peace in the Indo-Pacific

1. A Chinese J-16 uses an unsafe manoeuvre called “thumping” to intercept an USAF RC-135 flying over international airspace & it is definitely unprofessional. In 2015, the US & China signed an agreement to avoid aggressive, unprofessional intercepts.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1663628853800239104

2. Militarily, the PLA is engaged in a military buildup that encompasses all domains, like naval ships, 5th-gen fighters, missile forces, cyber & space capability.

​

(a) While China as a sovereign state, has the right (but not the obligation), to meet with their relevant US counterparts, it should be held accountable for the agreements it has already signed, like the US-China MOU on Air and Maritime Encounters.​

​

(b) As others have noted, channels of U.S.-China mil-mil remain frozen, public relations releases remain one of the few tools at INDOPACOM's disposal to signal concern and galvanize support for countries who care about international standards of safety of airmen operating over international airspace.​

​

(c) Likewise, on 28 Apr 2023 the Philippines has released footage of the CCG vessel's unsafe and unprofessional maneuver to block the PCG vessel from replenishing the BRP Sierra Madre in the Second Thomas Shoal. This Shoal has been found by an international tribunal to be a submerged feature within Philippine EEZ and thus Philippine sovereign territory.​

​

(d) Choices have consequences. Both Washington & Beijing will have to bear the consequences of their numerous choices, as they take a path to competition, if not to conflict (by accidental escalation).​

 

[OPSSG]

Post 2 of 2: Preserving a Legacy of Liberty and Peace in the Indo-Pacific

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1663693606186778624

3. While I agree the a DPP led Taiwan is not doing enough to prepare its own defence, we can’t be too prescriptive — the ROC Army needs reform so that they can take ownership of the problem.

​

(a) In the short term, the youth of Taiwan need to make the personal sacrifices necessary to get ready for war by training more seriously, as their duration of conscription is extended from 4 months to 12 months.​

​

(b) In the short to medium term, there are real defence industrial base constraints and the issue of attrited stockpiles for certain munitions but there is more than one way to save the world as the war in Ukraine rages on. The munitions that Ukraine needs are most urgently are slightly different from the munitions most urgently needed in Taiwan — it is in this trade-off space that some prioritisation must take place, in the short term. Further, arms shipped to Ukraine is under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), whereas arms for Taiwan is mainly via FMS.​

​

(c) I don’t advocate the need to throw Ukraine under the bus on the pretext of the need to defend Taiwan. It is also not wrong of Team Biden to use PDA as a form of prioritisation in favour of Ukraine, who is fighting an invasion.​

(d) I don’t like American GOP supporters who want to behave irrationally, in the short term, at the expense of Ukraine, while using the need to help the Taiwanese meet their medium to long term capability gaps as an excuse.​

​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1661930299587014660

(d) No one denies that the American defence industrial base needs more investments to ensure a pipeline exists in the medium to long term. We don’t have to listen to Americans like Alex Velez-Green, Eldridge Colby or Josh Hawley, who tell Ukraine, Taiwan and the rest of the world, it is their way or defeat, due to their need to cater to GOP politics.​

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4. Adm John C. Aquilino projects confidence in this speech but the 7th fleet size don’t add up to deterrence.

 

[telpher]

日豪 安全保障協力強化に向け 「円滑化協定」13日発効へ | NHK

【NHK】日本とオーストラリアの安全保障の協力強化に向け、政府は、自衛隊とオーストラリア軍が共同訓練を行う際などの対応をあらかじめ…

www3.nhk.or.jp

Landmark defence agreement with Japan enters force

Australian defence personnel will now be able to operate in Japan as a security deal with the Asian nation...

www.9news.com.au

On August 13, the Australia-Japan Reciprocal Access Agreement came into effect.

https://www.mod.go.jp/j/press/news/2023/08/14a.pdf

The first exercise to be conducted under the RAA has also been announced. It will take place almost simultaneously in Japan and Australia.

From 21 August to 2 September, JASDF F-35A x4 from 3rd Air Wing, C-130H x1, KC-767 x1, C-2 x2 from 1st, 2nd, 3rd Tactical Airlift Group will be dispatch to RAAF Base Darwin and Base Tindal.
Training will include long-range navigation and midair refueling.

From August 23 to September 15, RAAF F-35A x6 from No.81 Wing and KC-30A x1, C-130J x1, and C-17 x1 from No.83 Wing will be dispatch to JASDF Komatsu Air Base.
Japanese units participating in this exercise are F-35A x6, F-15 x16, and F-2 x4 from 3rd, 6th, 7th Air Wing and Aggressor Squadron, and KC-767 x1 from the 1st Tactical Airlift Group.
The content is only announced as tactical actions, but presumably DACT and mutual midair refueling will take place.
(The KC-30A/A330MRTT was first tested refueling the F-2 last year)

In first, Australian tanker refuels Japanese jet midair

Photos released by the Australian and Japanese air forces from the flight tests showed F-2s carrying up to four surrogate Type 93 anti-ship missiles and AAM-3 air-to-air missiles.

www.defensenews.com

But more important than that:
This PDF also states that the mobile deployment capability will be enhanced in anticipation of the future rotational development of JASDF F-35 to Australia.
All Japanese air bases are within range of Chinese BM/CM and it is difficult to escape first wave attacks. Construction of bunkers has finally begun in response to increased defense spending, but opposition from ""peace activists"" has prevented much progress in acquiring new estate.
I think they want to deploy part of the F-35 fleet to a secure base and use it as a reserve force, or to have it participate directly in operations with USAF/RAAF support.

 

[Ananda]

Put in this thread, as this is potentially going to matter with US and West strategy on the region. This actually already brewing for some time. In comparison it is in my personal perspective has similarities with Turkiye and Sweden dispute on Kurdistan political activist.

However problem now Canada point fingger to India with in my opinion mostly on still not strong circumstances evidence.

Will see how US will react on this. Whose US will choose ? Personally I once put in different thread for West also to take carrefull assessment on Indian Hindutva. They are not much different with Chinese Nationalist on the thinking of reviving Past Granduers. BJP is different then Congress, as they are more incline to entertaining some of the ideas of Hindutva.

Sikh nationalistic idea is clearly against Hindutva idologies. So whether this is involving Indian officials (I still have big doubt India will go that far), or some Hindutva loose canon (more likely in my opinion). Still this is also ellection time, and BJP unlike Congress is more inclined to try attracting Indian right wing (where Hindutva ideology get many support).

On the other hand BJP is also the most Western/US friendliness administration compare to more Russo Friendly Congress. Dilema for US on how to react. India is cornerstone for US effort to build another rival transit initiatives against China Belt and Road initiatives.

Will be quite interesting to see.

 

[koxinga]

It is a very curious case. As much as India dislikes this person, doing a hit on foreign soil is remarkably risky.

In the case of Jamal Khashoggi, you can attribute that to an intense, personal motive by a very powerful person (MBS) but at the same time, he probably knew the US will eventually overlook it due to geopolitics. But India does not have that sort of leverage over Canada and it puts them on par with rogue players.

I don't think Canada is that reckless to make such public accusations without facts, so I would be watching the evidence with interest.

 

[koxinga]

Sikh nationalistic idea is clearly against Hindutva idologies.

Sikh nationalism relates to separatism and Khalistan, which will not be tolerated by either BJP or Congress.

I suppose BJP feels more strongly, this unity of Bharat, because Sikhism is a young movement compared to Hindusim and this young movement dare to claim their own land.

 

[Ananda]

don't think Canada is that reckless to make such public accusations without facts, so I would be watching the evidence with interest.

Trudeau Jr and Modi just have big diplomatic spats in G20, and now This? Yes in one hand Canada should not be to rash pointing fingers, but on other hand India so far is quite careful not to be accuse or put themselves on conditions as state sponsors 'terorism'. After all India always try to picture themselves as mostly victims of terorism.

Is just that Right Wing media in India, those who usually support Himdutva ideology, are already for some time selling the Idea of Sikh terorist holding out in Canada, but still doing harm action toward India. Selling the idea it is India (or they prefer to be call Bharat) right to pursue those that harm India/Bharat anywhere.

Congress and other opposition is not going to tolerate Sikh separatist, as during Congress administration Sikh separatism in India getting the hardest blow. However Congress and those in center-leftist of Indian politics (as put by their media supporters) also not supporting idea of attacking India enemies outside the border. India under Congress that decided to pack themselves out from Sri Lanka, even after Tamil terorist kill their PM.

So either it is done by Right Wing/Hindutva loose canon or if Indian officials involvement, means Hindutva ideology is much more ingrained in BJP administration (as Congress and opposition accuse them to be). There're millions of Indian diapora in North America. Not that difficult for some factions in India recruiting one of them to do this.

Still yes, going to be interesting to see how the effidence work out and reaction (from US and West) on this development.

Anyway it is accelerating quite fast and emotionally. First tit for that on expulsion of Diplomat, and now this.

India tells citizens in Canada to exercise caution as relations worsen

Ties deteriorate after each nation expelled one of the other's diplomats in an escalating row.

www.reuters.com

Caution for civilians travel is quite serious stage.

 

[koxinga]

Congress and other opposition is not going to tolerate Sikh separatist, as during Congress administration Sikh separatism in India getting the hardest blow.

Indeed, I am old enough to remember the storming of the Golden Temple, which led to the assasination of Indira Gandhi. If there is one thing both BJP and Congress agree on, this is certainly one of them (the other is probably Pakistan).

 

[Delta204]

It is a very curious case. As much as India dislikes this person, doing a hit on foreign soil is remarkably risky.

I don't think Canada is that reckless to make such public accusations without facts, so I would be watching the evidence with interest.

To further elaborate on this, the extent of collaboration between US and Canadian law enforcement & intelligence agencies cannot be emphasized enough. While there is no source I could point to for this incident, based on previous sensitive intelligence investigations that became public in Canada, I would suggest that US security agencies either agree with these claims or at a minimum did not have any evidence to refute them. But have no doubt that the US government would have thoroughly vetted whatever evidence the Canadian government is using to make these accusations. So take that for whatever it may be worth...

 

[Ananda]

How Canada-India Relations Crumbled

“The knives are out," says one analyst, after Trudeau accused India of being involved in the murder of a Sikh leader.

time.com

This Time assessment can shown from Western perspectives dilemma they are going to face. Looking to Indian media or online charters, practically quite strong emotions run within India sides. Not something to easily resolved, if public emotion already run high in different perspectives.

Related to this thread, it is again matter as India is increasingly nation that Western power hope to counter China and provide alternative for West in region.

 

[swerve]

Indeed, I am old enough to remember the storming of the Golden Temple, which led to the assasination of Indira Gandhi. If there is one thing both BJP and Congress agree on, this is certainly one of them (the other is probably Pakistan).

I'm not just old enough. I was in India when Indira Gandhi was assassinated. I remember days of uncertainty, Sikhs disappearing from the streets, reports of massacres elsewhere . . . & then meeting eye-witnesses.

 

[Ananda]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/09/20/canada-india-trudeau-modi-assassination/

This article put comments from Indian and Canadian side pundits. Basically it shown how on this matter BJP administration got support domestically. On other Indian media, even the Congress voice know find themselves hard not to send condemnation to Canada administration.

On other hand Canadian is also adamant they will protect rights of every communities in Canada. In sense similar thing arguments between Sweden and Turkiye on Kurdish communities activities. Basically saying that nomatter how Important India is, extra judicial hit in Canada will not be tolerate.

Canada's allies in a bind as tensions rise with India over Sikh leader's murder

Canada this week divulged it had intelligence possibly linking Indian government agents to the murder of a separatist Sikh leader, the kind of news that usually sparks uproar among democratic allies. Not this time.

www.reuters.com

Another article that shown how much of the West in dilemma against action to condemning India as Canada"s Trudeau wants to do. Interesting comparison on how West (especially Anglo-American West) react on Russian extra judicial hit in UK, and this alleged Indian ones in Canada.

One thing the Reuter put, for strategy against China, India matter much more then Canada. Personally I see this to make West also understand that India is big enough to conduct their own Agenda and Interest, regardless Western opinions. India might not be as powerful as China is right now. However already big and independent enough on geopolitical scale.

Welcome to multipolar world order.

 

[swerve]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/09/20/canada-india-trudeau-modi-assassination/

This article put comments from Indian and Canadian side pundits. Basically it shown how on this matter BJP administration got support domestically. On other Indian media, even the Congress voice know find themselves hard not to send condemnation to Canada administration.

On other hand Canadian is also adamant they will protect rights of every communities in Canada. In sense similar thing arguments between Sweden and Turkiye on Kurdish communities activities. Basically saying that nomatter how Important India is, extra judicial hit in Canada will not be tolerate.

Canada's allies in a bind as tensions rise with India over Sikh leader's murder

Canada this week divulged it had intelligence possibly linking Indian government agents to the murder of a separatist Sikh leader, the kind of news that usually sparks uproar among democratic allies. Not this time.

www.reuters.com

Another article that shown how much of the West in dilemma against action to condemning India as Canada"s Trudeau wants to do. Interesting comparison on how West (especially Anglo-American West) react on Russian extra judicial hit in UK, and this alleged Indian ones in Canada.

One thing the Reuter put, for strategy against China, India matter much more then Canada. Personally I see this to make West also understand that India is big enough to conduct their own Agenda and Interest, regardless Western opinions. India might not be as powerful as China is right now. However already big and independent enough on geopolitical scale.

Welcome to multipolar world order.

But if true, killing a Canadian citizen in Canada is an overtly hostile act, an attack on Canada by India. To do that & expect to have it waved away is abhorrent. It's terrorism, pure & simple. There is no legal or moral justification for it.

 

[Ananda]

if true, killing a Canadian citizen in Canada is an overtly hostile act, an attack on Canada by India.

It is the base on that. Question the article put is whether the rest of Western Canadian allies do about it ? This is off course still hyphotical. However as the article put, the way the rest of Anglo-American behave to this matter, already very different when the Russian did.

Russian already put as potential adversaries, while most Anglo-American and even Western World put India as 'close partners'. Some even hope one day can become 'allies'. Is this going to make the reaction continue going to be different (even if the current Canadian accusation true enough) ?

So for me personally, it is interesting how will the rest of Anglo-American even West going to resolve this. Escalate or burried away (with some concessions). Indian domestics already on not believing mode on any prove from Canada, and claim it as 'ellection base slanders'. Enough Indian media and online chatters put this kind of emotional believes. Even the Congress that should use this as platform to attack BJP, hasn't done it. All because watching domestics mood.

Thus intersting for me as outsiders see how this develops, if hypothetically Canada evidence is strong enough to be use as accusations toward India. So far different standard reaction compare to Russian hit in UK (as that article put) already apparent big enough.

 

[swerve]

'Close partners' don't carry out political assassinations on each others soil. That is the act of an enemy. A friend should not isssue a blank denial but cooperate with any investigation, & vow that if rogue operators are found, they'll be rooted out. If it was really nothing to do with India, then what's to fear? Refusing to cooperate gives the impression that it really was ordered from the top.

Note that even if it was ordered from on high, there's a way out. They tell the killers to keep their mouths shut & accept (mild - they mistakenly believed they were acting in their country's interest) punishment for the sake of the country & their families.

 

[koxinga]

'Close partners' don't carry out political assassinations on each others soil. That is the act of an enemy. A friend should not isssue a blank denial but cooperate with any investigation, & vow that if rogue operators are found, they'll be rooted out. If it was really nothing to do with India, then what's to fear? Refusing to cooperate gives the impression that it really was ordered from the top.

As far as I read from the Indian point of view (right wing), the refusal to even entertain any form of joint investigation seems to stem from a combination of pride and their belief that Canada is harbouring "a known terrorist" amounts to an act of an enemy to India.

'Close partners' don't carry abet terrorism on each others soil, to reuse your point.

PS: This is what I read and does not reflect my personal view of essentially a sordid act/affair. No self respecting democracy should resort to such measures.

 

[swerve]

The question there is, did India put forward a formal case against him to Canada? If so, what was the Canadian response, & if not, why not? I don't know the answers.

 

[Ananda]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/22/india/india-canada-sikh-activist-row-friday-intl-hnk/index.html

For now India and Canada seems continue trading accusations. India while deny any involvement, now call Canada as safe heaven for terorists. Very strong accusations on diplomatic row.

Canada has evidence linking Indian diplomats to killing of Sikh activist, media reports

The Canadian Broadcasting Company revealed communications gathered about murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar

www.theguardian.com

While Canada continues saying that they have evidence on linking India Diplomat on the killing. They even claim Indian officials not denied their accusations behind close doors.

India-Canada row: Justin Trudeau repeats allegation against India amid row

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said that there were "credible reasons" for the allegation.

www.bbc.com

"As I said on Monday, there are credible reasons to believe that agents of the government of India were involved in the killing of a Canadian on Canadian soil," he said and added that by doing so, the country is standing up for the "rules based international order that we believe in".

India had then issued a sharp statement saying that it had "strong concerns about continuing anti-India activities of extremist elements in Canada" who it accused of "promoting secessionism and inciting violence against Indian diplomats".

I quote the two increasingly diverse position, and clearly standing on each position emotionally.

"No Evidence Any Indian Government...": Shashi Tharoor On India-Canada Row

Amid a diplomatic standoff between India and Canada, Congress MP Shashi Tharoor called it a disappointing development adding that there is no evidence that any Indian government body is linked with it.

www.ndtv.com

While again as I put in previous post, BJP main opposition Congress Party, still in fact continues support India BJP administration. This is in fact can be good situation for Congress to exploits, considering like in Canada, India election also coming. However so far Congress doesn't do it. For me as non Indian, it's bit perplexing. Still it is also shown so far Indian domestic is behind their government on the issue, and shown condemnation toward Canada.

This is so far not going to be easy to resolve, and will bring problematic situations for US. Eventhough Jake Sullivan say there will be no special treatment to India (in case the Canadian allegations proven).

US says India will ‘not get special exemption’ on row over Sikh killing in Canada

‘Regardless of the country, we will stand up and defend our basic principles’

www.independent.co.uk

All back to question, what's Canada evidence? Is it strong enough? If I'm Trudeau and feel my evidence is strong enough, I'll leak it to Congress. Let them sort it out with India domestic constituents. This off course if the evidence is strong enough.